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TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 127

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 28 2011 07:24 GMT
#2521
On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:
There is this just before Xedat's death though...

Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-

I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town!


Which part of that post worries you?
Moderator
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4351 Posts
May 28 2011 07:30 GMT
#2522
On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:
There is this just before Xedat's death though...

On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-

I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town!


Which part of that post worries you?

The fact that he's fingering elmizzt.

But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it

Let's do this!
[image loading]
Sucker for nostalgia
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 28 2011 07:36 GMT
#2523
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.

For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.
Moderator
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4351 Posts
May 28 2011 08:05 GMT
#2524
On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.

For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.

Alright done.

Let's kill these motherfuckers.

[image loading]


Sucker for nostalgia
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 28 2011 08:36 GMT
#2525
The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear.

First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good.

However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch.

Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it.
On May 28 2011 15:23 DropBear wrote:
Well well well. Kita needs an explanation.

The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1?

This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right.


Mig smashes it, as DB had expected.

DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig:

On May 28 2011 15:55 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote:
But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments.

You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched.

This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies.

I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game.

The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active.

I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir!


More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" :
On May 28 2011 16:20 DropBear wrote:
Ya, I was going to say elmizzt as well. Despite their wierd interaction on Day 2 they haven't gone after each other at all.

Show nested quote +
On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?

I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change.


They voted together yesterday incidentally.


The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play.
On May 28 2011 17:05 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.

For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.

Alright done.

Let's kill these motherfuckers.





On May 28 2011 16:30 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:
There is this just before Xedat's death though...

On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-

I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town!


Which part of that post worries you?

The fact that he's fingering elmizzt.

But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it

Let's do this!


DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous.

d=(^_^)z
Xedat
Profile Joined October 2010
Germany358 Posts
May 28 2011 08:39 GMT
#2526
Finally I can eat some popcorn ;-)



The lurkers lounge is pretty lavish.

P.S: get'em boys
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4351 Posts
May 28 2011 09:32 GMT
#2527
On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote:
The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear.

First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good.

However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch.

Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it.
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 15:23 DropBear wrote:
Well well well. Kita needs an explanation.

The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1?

This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right.


Mig smashes it, as DB had expected.

DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig:

Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 15:55 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote:
But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments.

You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched.

This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies.

I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game.

The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active.

I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir!


More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" :
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 16:20 DropBear wrote:
Ya, I was going to say elmizzt as well. Despite their wierd interaction on Day 2 they haven't gone after each other at all.

On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?

I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change.


They voted together yesterday incidentally.


The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play.
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 17:05 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.

For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.

Alright done.

Let's kill these motherfuckers.





Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 16:30 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:
There is this just before Xedat's death though...

On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-

I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town!


Which part of that post worries you?

The fact that he's fingering elmizzt.

But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it

Let's do this!


DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous.


Lol. That first post wasn't a defence. It was clarifying something I didn't understand.

Smelling blood? How does a scum person get really excited when they kill their own teammate?

Plus look at my posts. I've been overexcited the entire game, not just about killing kita. I posted a scum team with 7 people on it in day 1 lol.

I've been saying I trusted Mig for the last several days. I also posted a big analysis of you yesterday mate.

You wanted to look away from ilovejonn? Why?
Sucker for nostalgia
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 28 2011 09:36 GMT
#2528
Hm well there is still like 36 hours of day left so I expect kita to at least make some effort to defend himself. I imagine he is asleep right now.

But I probably was a little eager to clear db right away,there is no reason for us to try and rush into who should be lynched after kita right now. We should focus on this lynch make sure we don't fuck it up and then really look at all the information we have before we decide the final lynch.

Moderator
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 28 2011 09:49 GMT
#2529
On May 28 2011 18:32 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote:
The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear.

First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good.

However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch.

Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it.
On May 28 2011 15:23 DropBear wrote:
Well well well. Kita needs an explanation.

The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1?

This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right.


Mig smashes it, as DB had expected.

DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig:

On May 28 2011 15:55 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote:
But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments.

You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched.

This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies.

I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game.

The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active.

I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir!


More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" :
On May 28 2011 16:20 DropBear wrote:
Ya, I was going to say elmizzt as well. Despite their wierd interaction on Day 2 they haven't gone after each other at all.

On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?

I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change.


They voted together yesterday incidentally.


The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play.
On May 28 2011 17:05 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.

For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.

Alright done.

Let's kill these motherfuckers.





On May 28 2011 16:30 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:
There is this just before Xedat's death though...

On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-

I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town!


Which part of that post worries you?

The fact that he's fingering elmizzt.

But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it

Let's do this!


DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous.


Lol. That first post wasn't a defence. It was clarifying something I didn't understand.

Smelling blood? How does a scum person get really excited when they kill their own teammate?

Plus look at my posts. I've been overexcited the entire game, not just about killing kita. I posted a scum team with 7 people on it in day 1 lol.

I've been saying I trusted Mig for the last several days. I also posted a big analysis of you yesterday mate.

You wanted to look away from ilovejonn? Why?

1. It completely was a defense. You questioned kita's actions as not mafia-like. Of course, it was extremely weak and obvious, but that was your intention. You just needed a quick post of any content to bus him with.
2. You get excited when you kill your own teammate because it gives you the necessary town-cred to influence the next game-winning lynch.
3. It was more than just the overexcitement. This is different. You're pushing hard to close the book on kita in order to gain the aforementioned town cred.
4. Nice. I trust mig too.
5. I already stated why I wanted to look away from ilj. In case it wasn't clear, the quietness when the focus was on ilj/ao speaks to mafia feeling comfortable enough that they have no need to intervene to influence town opinions. Therefore, it would follow that ilj looks towny.
d=(^_^)z
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4351 Posts
May 28 2011 10:19 GMT
#2530
On May 28 2011 18:49 elmizzt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 18:32 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote:
The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear.

First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good.

However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch.

Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it.
On May 28 2011 15:23 DropBear wrote:
Well well well. Kita needs an explanation.

The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1?

This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right.


Mig smashes it, as DB had expected.

DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig:

On May 28 2011 15:55 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote:
But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments.

You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched.

This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies.

I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game.

The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active.

I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir!


More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" :
On May 28 2011 16:20 DropBear wrote:
Ya, I was going to say elmizzt as well. Despite their wierd interaction on Day 2 they haven't gone after each other at all.

On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?

I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change.


They voted together yesterday incidentally.


The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play.
On May 28 2011 17:05 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.

For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.

Alright done.

Let's kill these motherfuckers.





On May 28 2011 16:30 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:
There is this just before Xedat's death though...

On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-

I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town!


Which part of that post worries you?

The fact that he's fingering elmizzt.

But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it

Let's do this!


DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous.


Lol. That first post wasn't a defence. It was clarifying something I didn't understand.

Smelling blood? How does a scum person get really excited when they kill their own teammate?

Plus look at my posts. I've been overexcited the entire game, not just about killing kita. I posted a scum team with 7 people on it in day 1 lol.

I've been saying I trusted Mig for the last several days. I also posted a big analysis of you yesterday mate.

You wanted to look away from ilovejonn? Why?

1. It completely was a defense. You questioned kita's actions as not mafia-like. Of course, it was extremely weak and obvious, but that was your intention. You just needed a quick post of any content to bus him with.
2. You get excited when you kill your own teammate because it gives you the necessary town-cred to influence the next game-winning lynch.
3. It was more than just the overexcitement. This is different. You're pushing hard to close the book on kita in order to gain the aforementioned town cred.
4. Nice. I trust mig too.
5. I already stated why I wanted to look away from ilj. In case it wasn't clear, the quietness when the focus was on ilj/ao speaks to mafia feeling comfortable enough that they have no need to intervene to influence town opinions. Therefore, it would follow that ilj looks towny.

1. I pointed out in the very same post you call a defence why it could be dodgy.

2 + 3. So what if I've been excited about killing kita? I've been excited the entire game lol. There have been many many times this game where I've been excited. So what? It's what I do. I made this after 2 months at TL. I made my first LR thread after only a couple of weeks and less than 100 posts.

4. Your trust for Mig has appeared today, on the last possible day. You haven't even mentioned Mig in a single one of your posts up until this point in the game.. Yet now he is an obvious townie?

5.
On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 26 2011 04:49 DropBear wrote:
This is very different to his posts about orgolove. He was rock-solid on orgolove, not so here just a suspicion.


Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check.

I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn.


EBWOP: AO or ilovejonn (unless he wants to lynch himself >.<)

I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis

I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight.


This post was yesterday. You've been wanting to bring things away for a while? Why didn't you?
Sucker for nostalgia
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 28 2011 10:23 GMT
#2531
Hm Hm you do raise some points that I will need to consider elmizzit. But it's a bit strange that you have only made 3 good posts the entire game (these last 2 and the one when you replied to EM) when you are under attack. You claimed to have spent 2 hours reading through all of AO and ilj's posts yet you were unable to really come up with a strong conclusion on who should be lynched claiming you were just bad at analysis. You didn't even mention any reasons either of them were scummy. But when under attack you don't seem to have any problem defending yourself.

One of the most reliable scum tells is when someone is usually uncertain with their decisions except when attacking other mafia after they already look caught. Mafia don't want to gun super hard for townies because they are afraid of the rebound and so they don't take strong stands. But they don't have the same problem when dealing with mafia. You have no problem instantly accepting that kita is mafia after my post and you attacked sinani very fast but when faced with townies you seem to be overwhelmed and not have much of an opinion.

I won't claim 100% that you are mafia just yet but I am definitely more suspicious of you atm. I am interested to hear jonn's thoughts because assuming kita is mafia I think he is pretty much 100% cleared.
Moderator
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4351 Posts
May 28 2011 10:40 GMT
#2532
Whoops!

I made this after 2 months at TL, not the post on page 88
Sucker for nostalgia
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9244 Posts
May 28 2011 13:54 GMT
#2533
On May 28 2011 11:58 Mig wrote:
1) During the biggest and most hard fought lynch of the game, day 2 amber vs cth, kita voted for cth. Not only did he vote for cth but he voted late in the day when it was tied 6-6. It was extremely important for mafia to win this lynch and we already know one mafia member, GGQ, voted for cth late in an attempt to save amber. In fact GGQ's vote was just 45 min after kita's. Also consider that earlier in the day kita had said he was suspicious of amber yet he still voted for cth.


On May 09 2011 10:01 kitaman27 wrote:
Something no one has really mentioned is our day vig (assuming they exist). If he wants to consider shooting one of the two, we could kill two birds with one stone and lower the mafia kp.


On May 09 2011 10:05 sandroba wrote:
Yeah that would be excelent. Aim for Amber's head!


On May 09 2011 10:09 Mig wrote:
I agree with kita if we have a day vig they should shoot amber/cth now.


On May 09 2011 10:45 chaoser wrote:
I'm fine with a vigi shot, assuming we have day vigis, people already said it, and it hasn't happened, I doubt me asking for it is going to do much.



I admit my vote was on the wrong side of the Amber lynch, but I was the first person to call for a day vig on Amber. Note that this request came before chaoser's dt claim. The town clearly supported this idea and if our day vig weren't completely useless, I'm confidant one of them would have shot if they were reading the thread. For someone who is apparently going far out of their way to see Amber live and save a kp, why would I push for this death like that?


On May 28 2011 11:58 Mig wrote:
You might think voting for sinani on day 3 would somewhat clear him, but look at when exactly he voted. He voted for sinani when it was 7-4 in favor of EM with sandroba leading the charge to get him lynched. Kita knew that he would be under heavy suspicion after being on the wrong side of the amber lynch. So all he had to do was vote for sinani late that way A) he wouldn't be linked to voting to lynch another townie and B) it wasn't a big risk because at the time it looked like EM was going to be lynched anyway.


This is a skewed argument as well. I made it a competitive lynch, not the other way around. I made it 7-5. With one switch it is 6-6. You're saying I'm scummy for being on the correct side of the lynch. Note a mafia kp was also on the line during this lynch. You're punishing me for being on the wrong side of the Amber lynch and the right side of the sinani lynch. It seems to me you came to a conclusion before even reading through my posts.


On May 28 2011 11:58 Mig wrote:
2) Despite what kita says the godfather IS more likely to be an experienced player. Look back through past games 9/10 times the godfather is a vet. Kita and ILJ are the only 2 vets left. It is much much more likely for kita to be gf than conversion, elmizzit, myself, db when it is all either our first or 2nd games.


I never said the godfather isn't likely to be an experienced player. I've said that I'm not the godfather. Mafia clearly has been banking that someone makes this argument.

On May 28 2011 11:58 Mig wrote:
3) Kita is a good experienced player who people feel is town and yet he is still alive. First time players like forumite and varpulis are being killed off while kita is still around. The forumite kill is especially telling. Forumite was campaigning non stop to have orgolove the townie lynched. Yet mafia killed forumite because at the time the only people that were considered pro town were kita and him. It makes so much more sense for mafia to kill kita who was perceived as a pro town vet than forumite who was a 1st time player campaigning hard to lynch a townie.


Again, a WIFOM argument. Nobody was going to lynch forumite, but by killing him it makes orgolove look bad.

On May 28 2011 11:58 Mig wrote:
And now I will discuss my new points which are even more damning of kita.

4) His analysis against jaminz was bullshit and was only done to further mafia goals.

His first argument was that jaminz was playing completely different this game than in previous games. This is completely false, while jaminz was active in newbie mini mafia for one day, look at mafia XXXVIII. That game was of comparable size to this one and had a mix of vets and new players. During that game jaminz lurked as a townie for almost the entire game, very similar to how he played in this one. Kita played a big role in that game and he should know this.


You're completely missing the point. jaminz was a blue that game. I obviously do know that because I knew he was blue from day one. That is the point I was making, blues and reds lurk. In newbie mafia he was green and a town leader leading to his day one night kill. Additionally, I believe those 3 posts came after I called him out for his one liners. You can't deny that he was lurking, with the exception of the EM lynch. jaminz himself admits he was playing a terrible game.


On May 28 2011 11:58 Mig wrote:
Jaminz made some long, detailed, well researched, pro town posts, yet kita ignored them in his analysis.


On May 21 2011 06:43 Mig wrote:
I am going to vote for jaminz. He has contributed very little even though he has shown in previous games to have the ability to analyze and help the town (similar to amber and GGQ). And his last 2 votes were the final vote that led to a townie being lynched.


On May 21 2011 06:43 Mig wrote:
##Vote: Jaminz


Now you're being hypocritical. You obviously must have agreed with me since you cast the hammer. If you really believed this, then you wouldn't have been so content to sit back and watch him get lynched.

On May 21 2011 06:43 Mig wrote:
During night 5 I offered to switch last minute to impervious (the original person kita voted for and the one he claimed was most scummy) yet he doesn't try and convince me or anyone else to switch. Before kita votes he will post a small explanation for his vote but then never actively pushes for who he thinks is the scummiest. Because he knew that we were debating between lynching townies and so he wanted to distance himself and not stand out. In fact the last few days where we have only been discussing lynching townies you will see kita hardly discusses anything.


This is untrue. I specifically remember asking in the thread "Is nobody going to switch over to impervious?" I then proceeded to repost my analysis of him. As for recent discussion, orgo and AO were dt checks. I'm not going to argue against dt checks. Conveniently, the town is pushing aside my attempt to point out AO's dt check and save him. Why would I try to give a townie a confirmed status when there are only 8 people remaining in the game?

On May 21 2011 06:43 Mig wrote:
Look through his posts in mafia XXXVIII where he was town. Kita was one of the best players that game, constantly taking hard stands and fighting for the people he thought were scummy and trying to save those he thought were town.


I was also the watcher. I knew the alignment of 5 people from my checks by day three. I had additional information. If you go back to that game I also was wrong on my analysis of multiple people (Rean, aidnai, kevconism). Apparently I can be wrong a couple times in that game and be pro-town, yet this game if I push jaminz, I'm scum for being wrong? This game I've voted to lynch irish and sinani and called vig shots on Amber and GGQ.

Let me reiterate this to town. This is lynch or lose. Mafia has been waiting to make this argument to seal the deal. They leave me alive an extra 2-3 days and boom, they have a free lynch at end game, just because I'm a vet. Look how fast the votes piled on me. I think I've shot down this argument fairly well. Don't fall for this nonsense. I'll read the rest of the thread and post my thoughts about who we lynch today in a little bit.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9244 Posts
May 28 2011 14:06 GMT
#2534
On May 28 2011 16:09 DropBear wrote:
Ok you've sold me.

Should we talk about who we think the other one is or leave that until tomorrow?


Haha priceless. You've been sold before I even have a say? Now you want to discuss tomorrows lynch? During LYOL? You've got to be kidding me. There isn't going to be a tomorrow if the votes stay where they are.

On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.


Exactly, so stop tunneling. I don't think you are mafia. I think you are pushing the mafia's argument for them, while they sit back and laugh.

On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote:
The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear.

First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good.


HAHAHAHAHAHA. RIGHT, YOU'VE BEEN WANTING US TO LOOK AWAY FROM ILJ? THE GUY YOU JUST VOTED FOR YESTERDAY? THAT YOU REFUSED TO COMMENT ABOUT? HERE IS SCUM NUMBER ONE.

As mig likes to say, 100%. I'll write up a full argument later today. Awful convenient you come out of your lurker's lair to push the game winning lynch.

On May 28 2011 18:36 Mig wrote:
Hm well there is still like 36 hours of day left so I expect kita to at least make some effort to defend himself. I imagine he is asleep right now.


Yes I was sleeping. There is no way I'm going to give up like the rest of the town that just laid over and died. Especially when it is LYOL.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 28 2011 14:35 GMT
#2535
Gonna respond to some of your points kita.

1. 2 of jaminz long posts were before before you wrote up your analysis calling him the gf, yet you don't seem to take them into consideration.

2. I agree I didn't look closely enough at jaminz before I voted for him but I was convinced by the fact that he had been the last person to vote twice in lynches that killed town.

3. You still haven't addressed the fact that you used that one completely non scum tell post by jaminz as a big part of your analysis against him. I expect a lot better from a veteran player than to make 3 major points and have one of them be a completely false supposed scum tell.

4. You are once again completely wrong about jaminz metagame. He was active for 1 day in a newbie mini mafia game. Do you not see how incredibly different that is compared to being active for multiple days in a row in a 30 man game with vets? And why exactly couldn't jaminz have been blue? You declared after 1 day that he was a lurking mafia when he could have easily been a lurking blue according to you.

5. The dt check of AO. I am like 90% sure that forumite did not DT check AO. Did you read the post where I gave my reasoning for this? Throughout this game there are a lot of times where you seem to skip over points that don't quite coincide with your plans instead of addressing them. You didn't even address iljs argument about the sinani coached post as well. Instead you attacked a couple of minor trivial points he made.

6. And like I tried to make as clear as possible I am not just bashing you for being wrong I am bashing you for not trying to actually win. Show me examples of you pushing hard for a lynch or pushing hard to defend someone. Or more importantly actually discussing relevant points with people to make the correct decisions. This game you post your analysis then pretty much sit back and let the rest of the town do all the real discussion. In the previous game you were wrong several times but you were actively discussing and trying to make sure the town got the right lynch. Can you show me anywhere in the game you actually tried to defend someone?


While everyone else seemed content to sit back and just hope they survived (yourself included) I put like 4 hours into my researching my post against you. I seem to be the only person left that really cares about making the correct decision and winning. I am kind of rambling here but I guess my point is yes I am town and right now I am voting for you. If I am wrong the other 2 mafia will also vote you and the town will lose. So you need to convince me to change my vote and so far you haven't given me anything that out weighs all the points I have against you. Show me clearly why I can trust you are town and show me clearly who the other mafia are.
Moderator
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 28 2011 15:04 GMT
#2536
And really you knew jaminz was blue last game from day1 last game?

Lets look at jaminz posts from mafia XXXVIII on day 1.

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 12 2011 13:32 jaminz wrote:
I realize I've been inactive for pretty much the entire game so far, and I don't really have a great excuse other than that I've been a bit busy lately. However, I'm working my way through the thread right now, and plan to be completely caught up by the end of the night.

I've only played one game of Mafia before (Haunted Mafia this past Halloween - put on by Doctor H), so I'm still fairly new to the game, but I'm doing what I can to take everything in. Thanks in advance for everyone being patient with me.



+ Show Spoiler +
On April 12 2011 13:39 jaminz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 12 2011 13:34 chaoser wrote:
On April 12 2011 13:32 jaminz wrote:
I realize I've been inactive for pretty much the entire game so far, and I don't really have a great excuse other than that I've been a bit busy lately. However, I'm working my way through the thread right now, and plan to be completely caught up by the end of the night.

I've only played one game of Mafia before (Haunted Mafia this past Halloween - put on by Doctor H), so I'm still fairly new to the game, but I'm doing what I can to take everything in. Thanks in advance for everyone being patient with me.


Claims he needs to catch up.

On April 12 2011 08:49 jaminz wrote:
##Vote Doctor Helevetica


Voted DrH hours in advance


I'll be completely honest about that one, and you can ridicule me all you want for it: I was nervous that I'd be modkilled for not voting, and wanted to make sure I had a vote in before things got too out of hand so I voted for Dr. H. I know he knows how to play the game, and my gut said he was the one to pick.


I guess those 2 posts were all you needed to determine he was a lurking blue that game instead of a lurking mafia?

Here is his one and only post from day 2
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 13 2011 11:55 jaminz wrote:
Man, this game is pretty intense. I'm having a bit of trouble keeping up, but I'm working on it. It seems like Bumatlarge, DoctorH, and GMarshal have all had a lot of analysis done on them so far, so I'll try to look at a few of the other players and post whatever analysis I can.


I gotta say pretty impressive that you knew he was a lurking blue from just those posts.

And you say that blues and reds lurk but so do disinterested/busy/overwhelmed townies. In fact those are probably the most common type of lurkers, especially in big games filled with new players.

I don't think I am buying your story about knowing that jaminz was a lurking blue from day1. It feels more likely to me you just made that up to try and give your argument credit. Which is just another thing that makes you look scummy in my eyes.

Moderator
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 28 2011 15:34 GMT
#2537
And to clarify a couple things

I was wrong about the jaminz lynch but I used the information of him being the last voter twice before pushing for his lynch. You were pushing for him from the very beginning using just faulty analysis (especially the ridiculous argument about his post concerning killers death).

I am not punishing you for voting for sinani. You are misinterpreting my argument. I was arguing that you should get no town credit for that vote. Which makes perfectly logical sense given the points I mentioned.

For impervious yea you asked is anyone willing to switch and reposted your analysis but do you really think that counts as pushing your lynch? You don't add anything to your analysis even though impervious had posted like 10 times since you did the analysis. You don't discuss why he is more scummy than any of the other candidates you only posted your limited (like 4 lines) thoughts on impervious. In fact you don't even mention redtooth or orgolove and why they are worse people to lynch at all. Oh also after impervious comes back and votes for himself you conveniently stop posting and giving your thoughts completely. Disappearing during the most crucial times of a big lynch, solid play when you are by far the most experienced/best player left and should be leading the town.

I agree the vig call makes you look slightly better but it is literally pretty much the only pro town thing I could find of yours this entire game.

I know you are gonna give various reasons for why your bad play should be excused but it just seems so strange to me that you have played so much worse and consistently lead the town in the wrong direction this game when compared to last.
Moderator
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 28 2011 15:45 GMT
#2538
Oh and to talk a bit more about the impervious lynch. You only re-posted your argument for why he should be lynched after varpulis prodded you to switch your vote. Before that you seemed content to once again post like 4 lines worth of content then sit out on any real discussion.


Moderator
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9244 Posts
May 28 2011 15:47 GMT
#2539
On May 28 2011 23:35 Mig wrote:
Gonna respond to some of your points kita.

1. 2 of jaminz long posts were before before you wrote up your analysis calling him the gf, yet you don't seem to take them into consideration.


2 of jaminz long posts were defending sinani by attacking EM and argueing why he wasn't convinced Amber was town when two kp were on the line, yet you seem to call them pro-town. In my eyes they made him look more scummy. I don't see how they make you feel they made him obvious town.

On May 28 2011 23:35 Mig wrote:
3. You still haven't addressed the fact that you used that one completely non scum tell post by jaminz as a big part of your analysis against him. I expect a lot better from a veteran player than to make 3 major points and have one of them be a completely false supposed scum tell.


1) jaminz realized killer was blue
2) killer dies and flips blue
3) jaminz posts "gosh darnit! I guess my "analysis" was wrong about him"

That is not a non scum tell. If you're going to attack me for it fine, but I'm standing by it.

On May 28 2011 23:35 Mig wrote:
4. You are once again completely wrong about jaminz metagame. He was active for 1 day in a newbie mini mafia game. Do you not see how incredibly different that is compared to being active for multiple days in a row in a 30 man game with vets? And why exactly couldn't jaminz have been blue? You declared after 1 day that he was a lurking mafia when he could have easily been a lurking blue according to you.


He had nearly as many posts in one day of mini mafia as in five days of this game? His play wasn't consistent. Yes, he could have been blue, but that applies to everyone. If I feel someone is acting scummy, I'm going to say so.

On May 28 2011 23:35 Mig wrote:
5. The dt check of AO. I am like 90% sure that forumite did not DT check AO. Did you read the post where I gave my reasoning for this? Throughout this game there are a lot of times where you seem to skip over points that don't quite coincide with your plans instead of addressing them. You didn't even address iljs argument about the sinani coached post as well. Instead you attacked a couple of minor trivial points he made.


Yes I read that and I disagree. Furthermore, when you said you think it wasn't a check, I explained how dts usually soft defend targets they check green, which shouldn't be compared with scum checks. Explain to me how attempting to confirm a town green would coincide with scum plans? What difference to me would it be if 2 townies were up for lynch, as you claim. Scum want to get to LYLO by whatever means possible. As for the sinani coached post, that is a textbook example of WIFOM. They very well could have told him to say that in order to gain jonn false town cred later on.

On May 28 2011 23:35 Mig wrote:
6. And like I tried to make as clear as possible I am not just bashing you for being wrong I am bashing you for not trying to actually win. Show me examples of you pushing hard for a lynch or pushing hard to defend someone. Or more importantly actually discussing relevant points with people to make the correct decisions. This game you post your analysis then pretty much sit back and let the rest of the town do all the real discussion. In the previous game you were wrong several times but you were actively discussing and trying to make sure the town got the right lynch. Can you show me anywhere in the game you actually tried to defend someone?


Sure. I'll write that up in a little bit.

On May 28 2011 23:35 Mig wrote:
While everyone else seemed content to sit back and just hope they survived (yourself included) I put like 4 hours into my researching my post against you. I seem to be the only person left that really cares about making the correct decision and winning. I am kind of rambling here but I guess my point is yes I am town and right now I am voting for you. If I am wrong the other 2 mafia will also vote you and the town will lose. So you need to convince me to change my vote and so far you haven't given me anything that out weighs all the points I have against you. Show me clearly why I can trust you are town and show me clearly who the other mafia are.


You said you are bashing me for not trying to actually win, well I'll defend myself to the death, because if town is wrong then we lose. I'll post my analysis of who we should be lynching later today, but I'll tell you right now my suspects are still jonn and elm. Notice how everyone seems content with the current status of the game as they sit back and wait for the game to end.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
ilovejonn
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Canada2548 Posts
May 28 2011 15:48 GMT
#2540
You guys realize this is lylo right? Seeing 3 votes out of 5 on kitaman27 already before the first half of the day is very suspicious to me. One of Mig, elmizzt, Dropbear, has to be mafia. I'm willing to bank on elmizzt being the second mafia but we have to leave that discussion to another day like DB said.

Good thing it's Saturday and Sunday, I don't have work and I read your post Mig. I do agree with a lot of the points in the analysis, and with these few players left, Godfather could very well be in the hands of an experienced player. kitaman's play, despite being on the right side of a few lynches (with information as scum it is really not that hard) has been very different from how I played with him in other games, this is the most important point I'd have to agree with.

Also, the solidifying factor is elmizzt's recent post. He comes in and says kita is scum, votes him, and then pursues DB instead, turning the discussion into tomorrows lynch already. It seems to me elmizzt already knew kita was scum and is trying to draw attention away from himself and onto others already in preparation for the next lynch. They (kita and elmizzt) seem to be trying to give each other a last breath of town-cred, so that the town would mislynch on the next day. Right now however, we indeed have to vote a scum or we lose. It doesn't matter if elmizzt is bussing kita or not, since we have to vote a scum regardless, but I want to put that point out there.
Snowflakes in January, Heart warm like February, I wouldn't ordinarily..
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