Well kita is going to vote for ilj. I don't really see the point of trying to lynch elmizzit today. We should eliminate either ilj or kita today while we still have the maximum number active townies alive. Then we can just kill elmizzit the next day.
But yea that is fine that is what I wanted to know.
On May 29 2011 14:04 DropBear wrote: That is indeed what I'm attempting to infer.
You didn't vote until later on, once the only realistic candidates were EM and sinani.
Like I said before, I voted later on when it was 7-5, making the lynch competitive again. If I were on the other side, then it would have been 8-4 and clearly out of reach. You posted analysis on someone else during day three that wasn't sinani or EM, but that doesn't necessarily make you scummy. Also let me remind you of this post when you started to question sinani being scum.
On May 13 2011 12:09 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 13 2011 12:02 DropBear wrote: Kita, while I am unsure on Jaminz, note in my analysis that AO defends Jaminz. If you are right about him being GF, it makes sense.
Why push those two rather than sinani? What changed your mind that he isn't mafia anymore?
K, what's your point? Why are you reminding me of this exactly? It came the next day.
The fact that I was trying to prevent a redirection of the sinani lynch rather than trying to save him.
What are your thoughts about my analysis on jonn and elm?
On May 29 2011 14:04 DropBear wrote: That is indeed what I'm attempting to infer.
You didn't vote until later on, once the only realistic candidates were EM and sinani.
Like I said before, I voted later on when it was 7-5, making the lynch competitive again. If I were on the other side, then it would have been 8-4 and clearly out of reach. You posted analysis on someone else during day three that wasn't sinani or EM, but that doesn't necessarily make you scummy. Also let me remind you of this post when you started to question sinani being scum.
On May 13 2011 12:09 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 13 2011 12:02 DropBear wrote: Kita, while I am unsure on Jaminz, note in my analysis that AO defends Jaminz. If you are right about him being GF, it makes sense.
Why push those two rather than sinani? What changed your mind that he isn't mafia anymore?
K, what's your point? Why are you reminding me of this exactly? It came the next day.
The fact that I was trying to prevent a redirection of the sinani lynch rather than trying to save him.
What are your thoughts about my analysis on jonn and elm?
At this point pretty much everyone was trying to get sinani lynched (everyone still alive except me lol) it doesn't make you special at all.
Elmizzt is dodgy as shit and I agree with all of it. Regardless of whether you or ilj are mafia he definitely is. There is of course the distinct possibility that he is bussing you to try and win on the last day.
Ilovejonn, well it's either him or you. His voting history is atrocious and he hasn't helped much at all. I've found him suss since Day 1. On the other hand, I did a look through his history when I was preparing for XXXVIII and I found that he came under extreme suspicion pretty much single game and was never Mafia. Chaoser also decided to clear him. Orgolove indicted him and his top 4 had 2 confirmed townies on it plus me so I consider that an argument against. He has also been under intense pressure all game, I'd play poorly too if under the hammer every single time I post it would be stressful.
Here are my posts on jonn. My main argument is that he tried to convince others he was town by false logic. He quotes a meaningless post by choaser and refers to past games to try and convince us of his current alignment. sinani's "coached" post should have nothing to do with his innocence. In addition, he pretends to give up and disappears for long periods of time when people are suspicious of him.
How does sinani's coached post not have anything to do with my innocence? WIFOM? Why would the mafia want to bus the more experienced player if I was on the scum team? Can you not see how different his post was from the way he has been usually playing? That mafia kp for that day was more important than anything. If he'd made people switch and lynch a townie (me) it would've been great for them.
If I was scum and thrown under the bus, EVERYONE would have pointed out it was a scum coached post to buy himself town cred. He would have still remained in suspicion, instead of becoming a confirmed townie. So what would the best play be if he had a coach to consult to? Try to convince town to lynch me, save mafia kp for an extra night, then waste another day for town to lynch sinani.
What's the bad play here? Me being mafia, throw me under the bus, lose the more experienced player, remain under suspicion due to extremely different behavior.
Ah great you are back ilj. The more you can post addressing kita's analysis of you the easier it will be for town to make the correct choice. So any opinions and reasoning you can give will be very helpful right now.
Also, I did not pretend to give up. I actually did give up, until I decided to continue on with the "play to win" rule and others convinced me otherwise. Obviously it would have been good if I died so town could have stopped discussing whether or not I'm mafia, but if it truly did happen this game would have been over already. I don't disappear for long periods when people are suspicious of me. I actually AM not available. Okay, I tell you I go out, you say that's me being guilty of being inactive. I go out without posting a reason, you say I'm lurking when I'm under suspicion. Tell me what I should do?
On May 29 2011 00:48 ilovejonn wrote: You guys realize this is lylo right? Seeing 3 votes out of 5 on kitaman27 already before the first half of the day is very suspicious to me. One of Mig, elmizzt, Dropbear, has to be mafia. I'm willing to bank on elmizzt being the second mafia but we have to leave that discussion to another day like DB said.
Good thing it's Saturday and Sunday, I don't have work and I read your post Mig. I do agree with a lot of the points in the analysis, and with these few players left, Godfather could very well be in the hands of an experienced player. kitaman's play, despite being on the right side of a few lynches (with information as scum it is really not that hard) has been very different from how I played with him in other games, this is the most important point I'd have to agree with.
Another post that screams of guilt. You point out how fast the bandwagon has grown on me and how I've been on the right side of a bunch of lynches, but you still vote for me anyway. This post is a prime example of how you know I'm town.
I point out how fast the bandwagon formed because I know a mafia is bussing you, not because I'm thinking you aren't scum. I vote for you obviously because I think you are scum.
On May 04 2011 12:59 ilovejonn wrote: Apparently redtooth thinks Irish slipped cause he thought he knows 3-4 ppl playing in this game as ppl on his scum team. Just a misunderstood post imo.
Soft defends irish day one. That early in the game it is clear that it was a misunderstood post. I honestly did not think he was scum.
On May 05 2011 12:04 ilovejonn wrote: Told you guys I'm an invisible poster. I've made my stance before and have voted for Kurumi. I also explained why I don't think the other candidates are a better choice than Kurumi. Only reason people may think I'm inactive is because there are posts and pages flying through and my posts are probably not long enough. I would agree that some vets around are posting less than usual though. However I'm pretty lenient since it's only Day1. On that note though, I have work 11 - 9 est tmr and will only be posting after 10 pm.
The self proclaimed invisible poster. He is proud of being able to lurk. In addition, he feels guilty for lurking and finds it necessary to explain why he is inactive. I'm not proud, I'm pissed no one has anything to say about my posts whenever I do have an opinion. Like I said on the post before me, what do you want me to do regarding when I'm available to post or not?
On May 08 2011 04:35 ilovejonn wrote: I am not familiar with Amber's play. But it seems to me he does seem to lurk a lot. However, based on his activity levels and the limited posts he has made, it seems to me he is definitely hiding something. But from the posts I've read, the posts are not anti-town, more like a natural defense to accusations brought against him. If you know what I mean I would not want to say more.
On May 09 2011 02:34 ilovejonn wrote: Unvoting Beneather since he hasn't posted anything despite the pressure. Probably a modkill. Placing my vote on Cthsazsa as I still feel that I have a blue read on Amber. It is also mother's day today and this is my only chance to post right now. Have to go out now, I probably won't be back until tomorrow.
Infers that Amber is a blue role. Selective quoting for your arguments now? I've clearly explained why I felt he was indeed blue until chaoser claimed a DT check on him when I was not around.
On May 10 2011 03:43 ilovejonn wrote: Posting from work. I can't believe you claimed so late into the day chaoser. But I also understand that if you hadn't done so, you would've ended up with far less information. If I wasn't out the whole day I would've switched my vote onto Amber as well, but I guess what's done is done. Here I was hoping that Amber could really have been a blue and that a veteran player like him could have been of use to us with his "scum-hunting" abilities. I was wrong all along.
At least the modkill and lynch reduced mafia KP, which is awesome for us. I am also pretty sure chaoser is definitely DT as well based on his posts. I really don't think chaoser would have pushed 2 team mates for a lynch just to gain town cred. (It's possible, just highly unlikely)
I'll post more when I get off work or when night cycle ends.
On May 10 2011 12:44 ilovejonn wrote: Props to chaoser for his scum-hunting abilities, I'm really amazed at his confidence for going after Amber and GGQ. I'd have to agree we either had a stupid/afk medic, or this is a no medic setup. Looking at the list of players however, we had 2 day vig modkills, 1 night vig killed by the mafia, and 1 vig that hasn't claimed. With that many KP I'm leaning towards the probability that there aren't any medics. The vigi should claim early as that would prevent mafia from fake claiming that shot later on.
To people suspecting me, I'd like to remind you guys of chaoser's awesome scum-hunting abilities.
On May 09 2011 12:42 chaoser wrote: Actually I take back what I said about ilovejonn, he seems townie enough in his posts so far, I don't remember why I felt red about him. Maybe a misplaced feeling.
Even though he fake claimed DT, hitting Amber and GGQ with analysis alone is pretty damn pro. I know for sure I'm townie and that chaoser's read on me is correct. I might have been on the wrong lynches due to circumstances, but remember, being wrong doesn't mean being scum. I'll make sure to try my best to help us win, but for now I am going to bed.
The first real scummy post. He makes a point to point out chaoser's green read on him at a completely random time. I don't think it's a random time when there a few people are suspicious of me. Also what's wrong with me trying to prove I'm townie?
On May 11 2011 03:17 ilovejonn wrote: Also, to accuse me of highly likely being scum/GF because I'm a veteran is ridiculous. I have been town aligned my WHOLE career on TL mafia and I am going to say that it is the same for this game. If you expect me to be godlike like chaoser, then sorry, I am trying to improve, but that does not mean it does not allow room for me to be wrong does it?
Today's vote I am going with EM. I'm demoralized for being wrong so many times already and the only thing that is keeping me going is that chaoser was suspicious of EM as well as my own analysis of EM.
Funny, pretty sure that is the same thing that is happening to me, yet you seem to have no problem with it. Also, note how he is trying to tie his alignment in past games to the current one. Take a note on how many veteran candidates there were at that time, and there are now. Me and you are the only vets left in this game, I'm town, you're scum. Also note how I'm playing pretty much the same way I've played in every other game I've been townie, no harm pointing that out to make people check right?
On May 12 2011 11:01 ilovejonn wrote: Caught up. I'll say this, if EM doesn't flip red, go ahead and lynch me next day. I'll be ashamed to stay alive being wrong the whole game.
Also, conversion just voted for himself. =/
And no, I'm 20.
We never called his bluff. You want to call it now? Oh wait you're certain I'm scum but not placing your vote. Weird.
On May 14 2011 02:27 ilovejonn wrote: Here guys, use my vote. Even though I'm done I'm not gonna get modkilled.
##Vote: sinani206
Do you see how defeated his appears? He knows scum is in an awful position and votes for sinani only when he knows he has to. Yes, I was defeated at that point, so why not go with the general consensus of the town? I'm not going to make myself get banned for not voting AND town wanted people to vote sinani. I would have chosen whoever they told me to place my vote on at that time.
On May 14 2011 04:06 ilovejonn wrote: I'm townie. Why not lynch for information? We have mislynches at disposal. And what defense do you guys possibly want from me. I've been on all the wrong lynches and have no credibility in this game any more, flipping will probably provide more than what I can say.
On May 24 2011 06:05 ilovejonn wrote: I don't understand. How does orgolove flipping town constitute me being mafia? If you guys lynch me the next day, provided orgolove flips town, you would get ANOTHER mislynch. I've already explained why his spreadsheet is the worst way to find scum. It is all based on voting analysis. I've literally explained my reasons for each of my votes. We don't know the scum agenda, for all you know a member of the scum team could have bus'd his team mates with every vote and end up low on orgolove's spreadsheet. Look at sinani, he was low and flipped red. It just doesn't make sense putting those arbitrary points into a system when you can't account for what the mafia wants people to thiink.
He knows orgolove will flip town and is panicking. Not true. People are saying if a townie (orgolove) tunnels a townie (me), when orgo dies and flips townie, I'd be mafia. Makes no sense, and I'm explaining that to the town. He acknowledges he didn't get sinani with his data, yet he continues to push me based on the data. Obviously it was bad play on orgolove's part, as it was so much more convincing if he was scum, which is why I voted for him.
On May 29 2011 00:48 ilovejonn wrote: You guys realize this is lylo right? Seeing 3 votes out of 5 on kitaman27 already before the first half of the day is very suspicious to me. One of Mig, elmizzt, Dropbear, has to be mafia. I'm willing to bank on elmizzt being the second mafia but we have to leave that discussion to another day like DB said.
Good thing it's Saturday and Sunday, I don't have work and I read your post Mig. I do agree with a lot of the points in the analysis, and with these few players left, Godfather could very well be in the hands of an experienced player. kitaman's play, despite being on the right side of a few lynches (with information as scum it is really not that hard) has been very different from how I played with him in other games, this is the most important point I'd have to agree with.
Also, the solidifying factor is elmizzt's recent post. He comes in and says kita is scum, votes him, and then pursues DB instead, turning the discussion into tomorrows lynch already. It seems to me elmizzt already knew kita was scum and is trying to draw attention away from himself and onto others already in preparation for the next lynch. They (kita and elmizzt) seem to be trying to give each other a last breath of town-cred, so that the town would mislynch on the next day. Right now however, we indeed have to vote a scum or we lose. It doesn't matter if elmizzt is bussing kita or not, since we have to vote a scum regardless, but I want to put that point out there.
He jumps right in on the kita bandwagon and then disappears for the rest of the cycle. He buses his scum buddy elmizzt, but who cares? He knows he has won since its LYLO. Explained this part in posts above.
Ok so db now that ilj has posted his defense who do you think should be lynched? We probably have most of the relevant information we are going to get this game.
I trust kita as far as I could throw him. I'm very skinny so it's unlikely that I could pick him up to throw him in the first place. jonn has really not covered himself in glory either.
The other option is kill elmizzt and then rely on one of us to win tomorrow. Shotgun not me
haha well I don't think we should kill elmizzit. If we kill him we don't get to choose who will be left to decide between ilj and kita tomorrow and we won't really have any new information to make the pick with anyway.
What noooo don't kill elmizzt lol. If we kill elmizzt then either you or I die after right? Which means the entire burden of picking the games winner is gonna fall one just one person. And we are not going to gain any new info from his lynch because we both think it is either ilj/elmizzt or kita/elmizzt already. So it will be better for us to make the hard decision now. 2 heads are better than 1 haha. Then if we get the hard decision right we can kill elmizzit np.
I think we should kill kita. One of the biggest reasons is elmizzit's posts right after I posted my analysis. He panicked and immediately threw kita under the bus and started attacking you. He would only do this if he felt threatened. So therefore the only 2 combinations possible where he could be threatened are you/ilj are mafia or him/kita are mafia. I believe if elmizzit/ilj were the mafia he would have sat back and kept lurking to try and let us kill kita instead of going nuts and attacking you full force.
And you will notice I mentioned this fact last page and asked kita's opinion of it and he didn't respond. While asking kita all these questions over and over again anytime I ask him a tough question that he doesn't have a good town answer for he just skips it.
I have actually been somewhat worried this whole time that possibly you/ilj are the mafia and I considered trying to lie and say I wanted to kill ilj just to see if you would follow along. But then I am like well if db is town and I lie to him he might suddenly freak out and stop trusting me. But luckily when I asked you who you wanted to kill you have been pretty indecisive and even seriously suggested we kill elmizzit instead of going the easier route of killing kita. So that combined with my original town read of you has renewed my trust.
So unless kita says something that really shifts my opinion tomorrow then I am pretty set on going for him.
EPT
