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On April 13 2011 13:54 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2011 13:50 aidnai wrote:
Bum if you want to lynch DrH or Gmarshal, make a real fucking case and bring it back here day three or four. In the meantime stop making noise please thanks. Also, Chaoser is analysing the correct group of people (low content posters) for this stage in the game, I encourage everyone else to do the same and ignore Gmarshal/DrH/Bum if they continue to argue with each other.
I regret voting for you doctor mayor. Are you fucking kidding? Did you miss everything I posted? For you to idly dismiss what I've said is an abysmally bad town antic. I've given 100% accurate analysis on GM and why he is scum, and you have the nerve to say I'm just making noise? What has aidnai brought to the table this game people? I don't really remember reading a lot of his posts.
100% accurate... so this is a bus?
I read everything you posted. You're accusing both of the two most vocal players of being scum on day 1, that's stupid town play. If you're scum, you're attempting to make a lot of noise for some reason.
OMG, I haven't contributed a deep analysis yet on day 1, I must be scum! ... get real dood.
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ebwodp: or the scum goal would be to off the vocal players who, incidentally, have bodyguard protection...
Like I said, if bum continues to try to stir things up with GM or DrH today, ignore him. We got better things to do than lynch our officials.
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I was roleblocked last night.
Reading up on thread. God I hoped pandain was just green  .
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Do bodyguards flip bodyguard when they die?
I'm not going to be placing my vote on a lynch target until some of the veterans post their take on the situation over the next day, but I felt like posting why I'm most suspicious GMarshal now that we're out of the night.
+ Show Spoiler [Asked for specific night actions] +
Also Blue list coming
Medics
Jackal- I want him lategame
Chaoser- he is thinking, even if he is wrong about me, I want a wolf not a sheep
Bum- same as chaoser
tnkted- looked pro-town to me
kitaman27- he argued against the assassin and seemed generaly helpful to the town, protect the man
DTs
bum- as much as I like him he's come in throwing alot of accusations, I'd like for someone to know his alignment
ON- we could just lynch him, but if he isn't scum I dont want to waste a lynch
redFF- Kav suspected him, he needs a check
Barundar- Dr.H top suspect, a check is called for
Conversion- duh
Lattomi- last minute vote snipe and lurker, going to consider lynching as well
Trackers
jaminz
Milkyst
MetalFace
M0nsterChef
AirbladeOrange
Mig
As far as I can tell, asking for specific night actions was/is detrimental to town. It openly tells red who they should avoid hitting or visiting, just in time for them to do some night actions. It is worth noting, though, that he suggested using a medic on tnkted and tnkted still died. I'm still not convinced that's a point of absolute redemption.
Jackal58 posted a protect/watch list on page 81, but it was pretty generic and just listed veterans as what appeared to be a suggestion. Also worth noting for people better at analysis.
On April 13 2011 03:19 GMarshal wrote:
So I guess you all decided to throw away the extra 24 hours we have?
I'd like to see some opinions on things, some accusations, something!
Who do people think are the best DT targets, who do they think medics should protect?
Does anyone find my list entirely disagreeable?
GMarshal seemed very favorable to the idea of continuing the open town discussion on "who should mafia not bother hitting tonight?" He stated his stance on this before the game started, but some time after role PMs had been sent out. GM's quote bolded as follows:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 09 2011 10:20 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On April 09 2011 10:10 GMarshal wrote:On April 09 2011 09:39 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
i dont talk at night
i think silence during night is the best policy for town I completely disagree with this statement, I think the additional 24 hours of information are really valuable, its like extending the day by 24 hours. I dont think the additonal information we end up giving the mafia that way outweighs that at all. I mean look at Ver's analysis in XXXVII, they were all posted at night. I actually disagree as well. Having someone flip gives a lot of new information and can give posts by people a new light. Why would you not want to analyze before the end of night where you might possibly die? Ver said he was afraid he'd be shot every night so he posted his thoughts during the night and that helped town greatly.
These are actions I considered pretty suspicious. I'll be reading what the better players have to say about the night occurrences later on today before I place my own vote.
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On April 13 2011 14:40 Barundar wrote:I was roleblocked last night. Reading up on thread. God I hoped pandain was just green .
why would you do that
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That's pretty hilarious, You're attempting to drag attention off everything I've said with a simple "noise" comment. Not gonna happen Mr. Scum. Unfortunately, I cannot kill you until I get GM out of the way, but if you want to try a reasonable approach and attempt to dismiss my GM "bus" without actually giving me reasons why my analysis isn't correct, then I'd be happy to reconsider.
You don't think you can analyze day1? Nonsense. Get back to me when you've caught up with your tactics. I'd say the first course of action would be actually talking about alternatives rather then having your latest 5 posts be about how we should not pay attention to Bum's solid town play.
Next scum come up to the table please.
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Your experiments with various controlled substances have produced the hottest new drug that's about to hit the black market: tdotium. This drug is so powerful of a psychoactive, it actually causes people to believe they've been transported to a magical land called Rainbow Rumpus Partytown, where the mushrooms are made of cake and you can ride ponies all night long. You've decided to put this drug to work to help the rest of your organization gain control of TLHQ. You may visit one person per night and slip a dose of your drug into their food. They will be far too drugged-out to do anything that night, so they will not perform their normal night-action. They will be informed that they were drugged-out as shit the next morning (sadly, your drug does not impair their memory). Being drugged-out does not prevent a Veteran from being a stone-cold badass, so he still takes 2 hits to kill.
I assumed that you would be informed whether green/blue/black.
I don't think barundar is claiming anything.
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On April 13 2011 14:47 aidnai wrote:Show nested quote +Your experiments with various controlled substances have produced the hottest new drug that's about to hit the black market: tdotium. This drug is so powerful of a psychoactive, it actually causes people to believe they've been transported to a magical land called Rainbow Rumpus Partytown, where the mushrooms are made of cake and you can ride ponies all night long. You've decided to put this drug to work to help the rest of your organization gain control of TLHQ. You may visit one person per night and slip a dose of your drug into their food. They will be far too drugged-out to do anything that night, so they will not perform their normal night-action. They will be informed that they were drugged-out as shit the next morning (sadly, your drug does not impair their memory). Being drugged-out does not prevent a Veteran from being a stone-cold badass, so he still takes 2 hits to kill. I assumed that you would be informed whether green/blue/black. I don't think barundar is claiming anything.
Oh I see. Well that's fair then.
I don't want to see any blue claims : /
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On April 13 2011 14:46 bumatlarge wrote:
That's pretty hilarious, You're attempting to drag attention off everything I've said with a simple "noise" comment. Not gonna happen Mr. Scum. Unfortunately, I cannot kill you until I get GM out of the way, but if you want to try a reasonable approach and attempt to dismiss my GM "bus" without actually giving me reasons why my analysis isn't correct, then I'd be happy to reconsider.
You don't think you can analyze day1? Nonsense. Get back to me when you've caught up with your tactics. I'd say the first course of action would be actually talking about alternatives rather then having your latest 5 posts be about how we should not pay attention to Bum's solid town play.
Next scum come up to the table please.
You are 100% certain GM is scum then? because if you lynch him today and he flips town, congratulations you just copy catted DrH's day one lynch. Kill the most vocal townies hurr durr... That's mafia's goal, btw.
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@DrH. Naw, I remember Barundar claiming blue DURING NIGHT 1 of experimental mini mafia. Scum team laughed that one up pretty good... I think Barundar learned his lesson though.
I'm done talking to you for today Bum, unless you choose a different analysis target.
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Note who didn't get hit:
bumatlarge
chaoser
kitaman27
jackal58
aidnai
redFF
all potential power players or people who had very strong opinions/cases on day 1 that avoided death during the night. hopefully DT's got a hit last night and there will be a strong push for a good lynch today based off that. I would think any of these people would make great investigation targets.
Surprised at the choice of darmousseh, otherwise I'm not that shocked at the hit choice. If I'm mafia I'm thinking I want to take out big town talkers though.
Don't wanna WIFOM about it too much, but anyone who was a "big town target" that didn't get hit (there were no missed hits) is worth an analysis and a dt check.
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Alright guys, now that night is over, I have another announcement to make.
I checked Coagulation last night, and he is Mafia.
Now you may be asking, is Protactinium trying to pull a fast one on me? I thought Assassins couldn't use any night actions till Night 2!
I am, in fact, not an Assassin, as I may have led you all to believe Day 1. I am actually a Detective, and I've found you a Mafia member right from Night 1.
Now why would I claim Assassin Day 1 if I was actually a Detective? It was intentional, and all part of the plan. Unfortunately, I wasn't elected, but at least I had a backup plan. TL towns have a history of wanting to Lynch All Liars, but there is a very good reason that I didn't claim Detective from the start. Just look at Pandain to see why DT claims never work: it's been tried before, and Mafia have every incentive to fake claim DT. Thus, the claim backfired and the entire town jumped on him and tore him to shreds. Not a desireable outcome if you're really a DT, right? And this wasn't the first game where that happened. If you have time, go back and read TL Mafia VIII, where nemY the Detective claimed Detective... and then got jumped by town. I expected the same backlash had I actually roleclaimed Detective, so that's why I went with the Assassin claim. Furthermore, while Mafia are very incentivized to claim DT, they would be stupid to claim Assassin, since if the election bid fails, the actual Assassins will just shoot them Night 2. On the other hand, claiming DT is fairly safe for mafia, as after the intial backlash, the claimed DT will generally be ignored for the rest of the game. Assassin claims also help draw out the Mafia, and as the Pandain example shows, DT claims don't have the same effect, since everyone attacks the DT claim and causes chaos.
And if you're saying this is a bus and I'm Mafia, you wouldn't be saying that after I net a Mafia Night 2. And then Night 3.
The next question is assassin numbers. Remember how I claimed that there were 3 assassins? That was actually a ploy to keep the actual Assassins off of me. In terms of balance, all of the past games with assassins had assassins consist of roughly 10% of the total game population. In XXII, a game of 38 people, there were 4 Assassins, and in XXX, a game of 30 people, there were 3 Assassins. This game has 40 people, so assuming that Ver and Qatol helped BrownBear balance the game along the same lines as they did for me, there should actually be 4 Assassins in the game as well. Thus, my claim of there being 3 Assassins was a guess, but an educated one, in the hopes to keep both the guise of me being Assassin up and the actual Assassins off of my back.
Anyway, my plan successfully drew out the mafia. As I said before, mafia and assassins are desperate to stop my campaign, as an assassin in office would be a serious threat to both parties. Yesterday's vote clearly showed that mafia got panicky and overreacted when the vote was close and I had a chance of winning the election. Anyway, going back to my original list:
On April 11 2011 04:56 Protactinium wrote:List of People attacking my campaign, openly or subtly. AKA Mafia & Assassin listGmarshal
tnkted
mig
kitaman
Kavdragon
Wiggles
Darmousseh
Dropbear
Robellicose
Coagulation
So why is Coagulation suspicious?
He is clearly pushing mafia objectives. As I have established before, Mafia doesn't want me anywhere near the Mayor/Pardoner positions. Guess what Coagulation has done? He opposed me right from the start. Then during the middle of the election when it looks like I had no chance of winning, he shut up and wasn't saying anything about us except for when he made a candidates list explaining what he thought of each candidate. Near the end of the day, however, when it looked like we had a chance of winning, Coag suddenly jumps on us and starts frothing at the mouth. He attacks me viciously, this time saying that I'm Mafia doing a not-so-last-minute vote switch and that the Assassin claim was just to garner votes. Seeing that the "he's assassin, don't vote for him" strategy didn't work, he tries to spread more fear by saying that I am Mafia. Then, when it seems like I have no chance of winning anymore, Coagulation disappears again.
He's silent during the time between DrH winning and Kav getting flipped, even though he was conveniently defending Kav strongly before this time. And guess what? Although Coag was adamantly against the lynch earlier and attacks the lynch right after it occurs, he is mysteriously silent right before the lynch and doesn't bother saving Kav at a moment where his arguments could be critical. This is completely consistent with Mafia objectives, as Mafia obviously would prefer that a known analyst is lynched over a random inactive. Rather than constantly trumpeting his position throughout the thread, he pops up in bursts, striking when mafia need it most, and then disappearing when things are going well. I got most suspicious of Coag right after the lynch. Look at when he is posting, and when he is not, and its obvious that he has a hidden agenda.
But that's not all. The whole game, he is useless and does nothing except spam and spread doubt on the mayoral candidates. The more interesting and important point though, is that he has an utter lack of conviction on who could be mafia. In particular, look at when Coag was yelling at DH not to lynch Kav. DH asked him for alternatives, yet he couldn't name a single name, just "any of the countless scummy lurkers". Compare this with his games as town, where he has no problem pointing out who he thinks is most scummy, and its pretty obvious that Coag is trying to hide the fact that he knows who the mafia are. Classic Mafia mentality, not wanting to have to point out scum and be accountable for it. Coagulation as green is fearless, posting every single thought that comes to his head as to who is Mafia. As DrH said at the end of Assassin In the Palace, Coagulation posts very frequently. This trend of trying to actively hunt down and call out Mafia as green goes all the way back to Haunted Mafia. As red, look at games like Insane 2 and Don't Lose Your Village. Coagulation is much more restrained and doesn't point out any reds with conviction like he does when he's town.
To sum it up, Coag is pushing mafia objectives. He had fierce opposition to my candidacy (mafia do not want a pro-town assassin in office), and conveniently posted at the right times. The whole game, he has been indecisive and is spreading doubt. Furthermore, he has not shown any conviction on who he thinks is Mafia, which is completely inconsistent with his town play, while he has no trouble pointing out who he thinks is innocent (GMarshal and Kavdragon). With all this evidence and my role check, there's no reason to vote anyone except Coagulation. GMarshal is suspicious too, but I'm not sure one way or the other. One thing is certain though: if he pardons Coagulation, they're both Mafia 100%.
Like I said, this party is only getting started. Mafia totally fell for my trap, so we are way ahead of where we would be otherwise.
Vote for Coagulation.
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Today on the shitter I thought "flamewheel is either assassin or detective making some ballsy play"
however i don't believe you are bad enough to DT claim day 2 on a check, I mean really? that's textbook shit. This pandain stuff sounds like mumbo jumbo you made up after the fact.
Here's what I think. I think you're the assassin. I think you came to the same conclusion as me:
Coagulation and Kitaman27 are the other two assasins.
You think you can win very quickly, if coagulation is lynched and you burn your hit on Kitaman27. I'm not convinced. This is just very odd behavior and I wouldn't expect this from a player like you of all people.
I'll look back on coagulations posts and crosscheck with your analysis tomorrow. Still working on homework tonight but I'm skeptical right off the bat. Please elaborate more on your DT gambit ESPECIALLY why you decided to claim?
Why not simply make a case? Everyone believed you were trying to help town as the assassin? Why not just say "look coagulation is probably mafia here is my case as to why" and get the lynch onto him? As I see it you have a huge incentive to see Coag dead if you got the same read on him I did and you are indeed the assassin : /
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Hmmm Proact, I haven't fully read through your entire post and I trust you as pro-town but I have a question.
If you are actually the Detective, why would you claim? Why not simply push for a lynch on Coagulation using the reasons you have discovered without revealing that you are actually the detective? Now clearly the roleblocker will block you making you relatively ineffective. Is this because you don't want the other assassins' to hit you next turn or because you want medic/watcher on you next night?
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On April 13 2011 14:55 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Note who didn't get hit:
bumatlarge
chaoser
kitaman27
jackal58
aidnai
redFF
all potential power players or people who had very strong opinions/cases on day 1 that avoided death during the night. hopefully DT's got a hit last night and there will be a strong push for a good lynch today based off that. I would think any of these people would make great investigation targets.
Surprised at the choice of darmousseh, otherwise I'm not that shocked at the hit choice. If I'm mafia I'm thinking I want to take out big town talkers though.
Don't wanna WIFOM about it too much, but anyone who was a "big town target" that didn't get hit (there were no missed hits) is worth an analysis and a dt check.
I'm actually quite relived that scum decided to blue snipe instead of hunting active players. It means they are helping us dealing with the inactives.
We should in my opinion avoid focus day 2 on killing our elected players, no matter how scummy they might look. It's the easiest way to have the town blow up itself, and quite frankly it's not unusual for me to suspect the "town leader" of being scum and being wrong about it. We have a bunch of people laying low, and neither of them is it.
Aidnai I'd love to hear your suspects and why. Same for you GGQ.
My top suspects:
Jaminez, you where very active in haunted mafia as green, I expect more of you if you are town. Looking forward to your posts.
Rean was quite active as a blue in insane mafia 2, and was inactive (and got modkilled for it) as scum in mafia 36. Now he is inactive again, and he is trolling to boot.
Conversion is still my favorite lynch target. Pressure vote.
##Vote: Conversion
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On April 13 2011 14:55 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Note who didn't get hit:
bumatlarge
chaoser
kitaman27
jackal58
aidnai
redFF
all potential power players or people who had very strong opinions/cases on day 1 that avoided death during the night. hopefully DT's got a hit last night and there will be a strong push for a good lynch today based off that. I would think any of these people would make great investigation targets.
Surprised at the choice of darmousseh, otherwise I'm not that shocked at the hit choice. If I'm mafia I'm thinking I want to take out big town talkers though.
Don't wanna WIFOM about it too much, but anyone who was a "big town target" that didn't get hit (there were no missed hits) is worth an analysis and a dt check.
Its equally likely though, that the mafia knew that these people were most likely to be protected because of their strong opinions/cases on day 1. Therefore, they chose to hit people who they thought would not be medic protected - explaining why they did not double-up on any particular person. Just because these people did not get hit, does not mean anything particular in my opinion.
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Ah, that does make sense, and the assasin numbers does sound clever. Were you planning on being mayor and then revealing or what?
Though to be fair coagulation has been very active playing pokemon, not sure if thats an excuse for his activity. But I can't really go against a DT check with no millers. I think it's fairly obvious we should be lynching coagulation.
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Yeah. The assassin gamble is way too risky and it basically guarantees protact is dead.
But if he is assassin, he has nothing to lose. THe other assassin's wont take a chance. They WILL hit him Night 2. IF he believes coagulation is teh other assassin, this is his only opportunity to win his game if im not mistaken
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I'll be voting for coagulation anyhow, too good of a prospect not to follow up on
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United States4714 Posts
I don't really understand why prot didn't just run for mayor normally instead of trying the assassin gambit. Everyone agrees hes a very strong player with excellent analysis, it seems like he would be a great mayor just as a normal townie. If he runs this gambit and it fails then he has to convince the town he was faking before and even if he accomplishes that the assassins will still likely target him. And I want to add I did say earlier that it would be in prots best interest to lie about the number of assassins no matter what because it might trick the assassins into voting someone else.
So I still believe that prot is an assassin, however I think there's a good chance coag is mafia. If prot used his 1 dt check last night and hit a red I think the obvious play for him would be to role claim dt. Then if we lynch that player he called out and its right he can ask for medic protection.
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EPT
