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On March 24 2011 22:07 deconduo wrote:
If he's blue: Vote for him
If he's not: There will be a cc
Whats not to get?
We hope if he's black there will be a cc. 4 blues and a bunch of noobs in the game. I'm not holding my breath.
Anyways here is a 1 in 3 chance of hitting a red or a black:
1. Coagulation
2. darmousseh
3. Jackal58
4. annul
5. Tackster
6. Lemonwalrus
I'm green. I suspect Coag is as well. So going on that we have a 50/50 shot at a red and a black between darm, annul, Tackster and LW.
Tackster and Lemon I don't know. So I don't know what to expect out of their play.
I haven't seen darm post yet.
Is annul red again? Wouldn't put it past LSB to do so. Or maybe he changed it up and made him black.
I would recommend confining our day 1 lynch to somebody on this list.
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On March 24 2011 22:52 CubEdIn wrote:
@ Jackal: be reasonable man.
It's always been a bad idea for scum to claim something first. You can't claim DT or getting shot when there's just 1 dt or 1 shot in the game, because you will be faced with counter-claims.
So far, there's just one claim of blue. There are two scenarios:
a) All REAL blues are asleep and will counter-claim later on.
b) He is blue and the three other blue are keeping their mouth shut as they should.
IF there's gonna be a counter claim, I assume there will be at least one more person supporting EITHER of them.
So, whoever is lying (be it mafia or blacks), they will have to stick out at least TWO people (which can be up to four if we go there), in order to get an election. Would you risk that as scum/3rd party just for the mayor role? No. You don't put 2 people on the line on day one for no reason.
And if we figure out who's lying (person with least supporters?), then one of them gets mayor'd, and the rest get medic protected or who knows. The point is, in the end, it's not a smart move for EITHER Black or Red to sacrifice people 1:1 (even if they get blues), because they're also fighting each other.
So, unless you get counter-claims for blues, you can 99% sure assume that bum is town.
If cops saw this but decided not to counter-claim, then either they have a good reason for it, OR they're being dumb.
You seem to think that they are dumb, for some reason.
I'm over it Cub. It was just to damn convenient looking.
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Let me break down the logic behind Bum's blueclaim:
If no one counterclaims, Bum is blue.
If bum is blue and mafia/sk counter claim, we lynch them both. It's a 1-1 trade, and 1-1 trades are always town favored.
If bum is mafia/sk, real blues counterclaim, we lynch them both, it's a 1-1 trade.
The worst scenario is a 1-1 trade, and that's good for town. Because of this, I will trust that bum is blue until a counterclaim arises
HOWEVER. I will restate that simply protecting a blue role is not good enough. We need to protect the people who will actively hunt scum. Vets and scumhunters cannot tell the mayor who to lynch if they are dead! Beyond that, the mayor only controls the day-one lynch, something that is a crap-shoot anyways.
I strongly believe that blues should be helping the analysts, not the other way around. As has been said by Ver, BloodyC0bler, Ace, and many more Town wins because of analysis, not because of blues. Blues are very helpful, but we cannot rely on them.
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I'll vote for bum, if he gets counter claimed then I'll stay in the race.
On March 24 2011 22:58 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2011 22:07 deconduo wrote:
If he's blue: Vote for him
If he's not: There will be a cc
Whats not to get? We hope if he's black there will be a cc. 4 blues and a bunch of noobs in the game. I'm not holding my breath. Anyways here is a 1 in 3 chance of hitting a red or a black: 1. Coagulation 2. darmousseh 3. Jackal58 4. annul 5. Tackster 6. Lemonwalrus I'm green. I suspect Coag is as well. So going on that we have a 50/50 shot at a red and a black between darm, annul, Tackster and LW. Tackster and Lemon I don't know. So I don't know what to expect out of their play. I haven't seen darm post yet. Is annul red again? Wouldn't put it past LSB to do so. Or maybe he changed it up and made him black. I would recommend confining our day 1 lynch to somebody on this list.
Thanks for basically copying and restating my idea...this + being against bum's run makes me FoS you.
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On March 24 2011 23:22 Kavdragon wrote:
Let me break down the logic behind Bum's blueclaim:
If no one counterclaims, Bum is blue.
If bum is blue and mafia/sk counter claim, we lynch them both. It's a 1-1 trade, and 1-1 trades are always town favored.
If bum is mafia/sk, real blues counterclaim, we lynch them both, it's a 1-1 trade.
The worst scenario is a 1-1 trade, and that's good for town. Because of this, I will trust that bum is blue until a counterclaim arises
HOWEVER. I will restate that simply protecting a blue role is not good enough. We need to protect the people who will actively hunt scum. Vets and scumhunters cannot tell the mayor who to lynch if they are dead! Beyond that, the mayor only controls the day-one lynch, something that is a crap-shoot anyways.
I strongly believe that blues should be helping the analysts, not the other way around. As has been said by Ver, BloodyC0bler, Ace, and many more Town wins because of analysis, not because of blues. Blues are very helpful, but we cannot rely on them.
As logically sound as your points are there is one part that kind of irks me. You are dismissing that bum could be an analyst, which I am pretty sure he is capable of. As stated before, what he is doing would fall through from the mafia so assuming is town is fine by me. I don't see why you wouldn't want a pseudo confirmed townie in the mayor position who has also been an active player. You say you want an active scum hunter, well by putting Bum in the mayor position you are getting the power of his circle which may or may not have a more active "scumhunter" as you put it.
And on top of that, he said he would listen to me on who to kill. So you get what you want no matter how you look at it! Why kavvy gotta hate?
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On March 24 2011 14:13 iGrok wrote:
There also the fact that the mayor can choose the lynch, and can rely on active scumhunters' advice. The leader in this case only has to make the final decision, and I'd rather that be a confirmed town who will listen to scumhunters than an unknown or even probable town.
On March 24 2011 18:41 deconduo wrote:
Kav's argument is pretty meh also. Why not elect a confirmed town mayor, and he can listen to all the vet's scumhunting. Its not like bumatlarge is bad either,,,
iGrok might be excusable because of he's newish, but I'm inclined to disbelieve that you would fail so hard on your logic Decon...
Scum hunters cannot tell the mayor what to push if they are dead. Besides, it's not like the mayor has some magical ability to bend the town to his will. When I was mayor in XXXVI, I was able to control the lynches because I was one of the only active scum hunters, Not because I was mayor. Mayor was only the shield I used so that I COULD hunt scum without dieing.
This is about protecting the people that are going to be hit by the mafia early and often. Read the pre-game, we already had the discussion about who the mafia would hit: If they don't hit the vets/analysts they will be caught. If bum cannot analyse then the mafia would LOVE to see him as mayor, because it's protecting someone who they wouldn't have hit anyways.
I want to stay active, and bring the pain to the red/black teams. I can't do this if I am dead. Vote for Kav. If this doesn't make sense, please let me know and I'll try to explain it more simply.
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On March 24 2011 23:36 chaoser wrote:I'll vote for bum, if he gets counter claimed then I'll stay in the race. Show nested quote +On March 24 2011 22:58 Jackal58 wrote:On March 24 2011 22:07 deconduo wrote:
If he's blue: Vote for him
If he's not: There will be a cc
Whats not to get? We hope if he's black there will be a cc. 4 blues and a bunch of noobs in the game. I'm not holding my breath. Anyways here is a 1 in 3 chance of hitting a red or a black: 1. Coagulation 2. darmousseh 3. Jackal58 4. annul 5. Tackster 6. Lemonwalrus I'm green. I suspect Coag is as well. So going on that we have a 50/50 shot at a red and a black between darm, annul, Tackster and LW. Tackster and Lemon I don't know. So I don't know what to expect out of their play. I haven't seen darm post yet. Is annul red again? Wouldn't put it past LSB to do so. Or maybe he changed it up and made him black. I would recommend confining our day 1 lynch to somebody on this list. Thanks for basically copying and restating my idea...this + being against bum's run makes me FoS you.
If you said it I missed it. The only one I saw was Meapak's.
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I've gotten decent town vibes from annul, besides, if we're gonna lynch him he'll claim DT miller and people will leave him alone (i kid, i kid).
I'm getting bad vibes from Lemonwalrus though. One-lining his way through posts.
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On March 24 2011 23:43 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2011 23:22 Kavdragon wrote:
Let me break down the logic behind Bum's blueclaim:
If no one counterclaims, Bum is blue.
If bum is blue and mafia/sk counter claim, we lynch them both. It's a 1-1 trade, and 1-1 trades are always town favored.
If bum is mafia/sk, real blues counterclaim, we lynch them both, it's a 1-1 trade.
The worst scenario is a 1-1 trade, and that's good for town. Because of this, I will trust that bum is blue until a counterclaim arises
HOWEVER. I will restate that simply protecting a blue role is not good enough. We need to protect the people who will actively hunt scum. Vets and scumhunters cannot tell the mayor who to lynch if they are dead! Beyond that, the mayor only controls the day-one lynch, something that is a crap-shoot anyways.
I strongly believe that blues should be helping the analysts, not the other way around. As has been said by Ver, BloodyC0bler, Ace, and many more Town wins because of analysis, not because of blues. Blues are very helpful, but we cannot rely on them. As logically sound as your points are there is one part that kind of irks me. You are dismissing that bum could be an analyst, which I am pretty sure he is capable of. As stated before, what he is doing would fall through from the mafia so assuming is town is fine by me. I don't see why you wouldn't want a pseudo confirmed townie in the mayor position who has also been an active player. You say you want an active scum hunter, well by putting Bum in the mayor position you are getting the power of his circle which may or may not have a more active "scumhunter" as you put it. And on top of that, he said he would listen to me on who to kill. So you get what you want no matter how you look at it! Why kavvy gotta hate?
Firstly, yes. If bum can be an analyst, then he'd be a good mayor. As I mentioned before, I'd vote for him if he showed some of this analysis. (No, I don't expect much this early, but I'm just getting the feeling that he's relying on his blue circle too much. w/e)
The reason why I'm pushing for my mayorship over Bum's is more or less selfish: I want to do analysis, and I don't want to die because of it. So I will push my mayorship over his until he proves he can hunt scum better than me.
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I agree with you to some extent kav, but as long as you are active you should draw a medic so don't worry about being mayor so much. Just keep posting analysis and the mafia will be too scared to hit you. I believe I have used that tactic before. Although it resulted in the mafia double stacking me >.<! But that is good too.
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Don't worry Kav, I'll protect you.
...as soon as I get my medic role pm!
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On March 24 2011 23:50 CubEdIn wrote:
I've gotten decent town vibes from annul, besides, if we're gonna lynch him he'll claim DT miller and people will leave him alone (i kid, i kid)
WE WILL NOT SPEAK OF IT!
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What if we don't have any medics?
Insane thought isn't it?
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On March 24 2011 23:50 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2011 23:43 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On March 24 2011 23:22 Kavdragon wrote:
Let me break down the logic behind Bum's blueclaim:
If no one counterclaims, Bum is blue.
If bum is blue and mafia/sk counter claim, we lynch them both. It's a 1-1 trade, and 1-1 trades are always town favored.
If bum is mafia/sk, real blues counterclaim, we lynch them both, it's a 1-1 trade.
The worst scenario is a 1-1 trade, and that's good for town. Because of this, I will trust that bum is blue until a counterclaim arises
HOWEVER. I will restate that simply protecting a blue role is not good enough. We need to protect the people who will actively hunt scum. Vets and scumhunters cannot tell the mayor who to lynch if they are dead! Beyond that, the mayor only controls the day-one lynch, something that is a crap-shoot anyways.
I strongly believe that blues should be helping the analysts, not the other way around. As has been said by Ver, BloodyC0bler, Ace, and many more Town wins because of analysis, not because of blues. Blues are very helpful, but we cannot rely on them. As logically sound as your points are there is one part that kind of irks me. You are dismissing that bum could be an analyst, which I am pretty sure he is capable of. As stated before, what he is doing would fall through from the mafia so assuming is town is fine by me. I don't see why you wouldn't want a pseudo confirmed townie in the mayor position who has also been an active player. You say you want an active scum hunter, well by putting Bum in the mayor position you are getting the power of his circle which may or may not have a more active "scumhunter" as you put it. And on top of that, he said he would listen to me on who to kill. So you get what you want no matter how you look at it! Why kavvy gotta hate? Firstly, yes. If bum can be an analyst, then he'd be a good mayor. As I mentioned before, I'd vote for him if he showed some of this analysis. (No, I don't expect much this early, but I'm just getting the feeling that he's relying on his blue circle too much. w/e) The reason why I'm pushing for my mayorship over Bum's is more or less selfish: I want to do analysis, and I don't want to die because of it. So I will push my mayorship over his until he proves he can hunt scum better than me.
I think the blue circle can be an analysts wet dream. It is basically the entire dynamic I tried using in TMM3 of being able to have someone you know is not trying to manipulate you to bounce ideas off. That's the reason I think it isn't necessarily a much worse idea to elect a blue in this case over a scum hunter.
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On March 24 2011 23:54 Jackal58 wrote:
What if we don't have any medics?
Insane thought isn't it?
XXXVI... What? It's a mind fuck! Mind fuckery! I think I lived fairly long in that game too using the same strategy. The mafia finally decided to hit me while a vigilante did as well when I was a Vet. So my lights went out 
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On March 24 2011 23:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2011 23:54 Jackal58 wrote:
What if we don't have any medics?
Insane thought isn't it? XXXVI... What? It's a mind fuck! Mind fuckery! I think I lived fairly long in that game too using the same strategy. The mafia finally decided to hit me while a vigilante did as well when I was a Vet. So my lights went out
The only blue roles listed are the 4 cop roles. I have no idea what powers LSB intends to pass out to all the townies so I don't know if medics will be included in the list but they aren't going to be the traditional "blue" role.
I and the other 5 in the item game are not going to receive any additional powers according to the OP but apparently will receive some type of item that we can bring to the main game if we get rid of the opposing factions.
That's the reason I want the first lynch list to be from the 6 in the item game. Town wants those items.
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It's POSSIBLE that bum is a 3rd-party and our blue team is retarded. Very very unlikely though.
I see no reason to not vote for him at least for the time being.
Although, probably not happening, but imagine this: bum is 3rd party. Blues counterclaim. another 3rd party CCs the blue's counterclaim (nah guys, bum's a blue, so am i!). Blues with another of theirs. So on and so forth. Mafia rofls. We lose pretty hard
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On March 24 2011 23:47 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2011 23:36 chaoser wrote:I'll vote for bum, if he gets counter claimed then I'll stay in the race. On March 24 2011 22:58 Jackal58 wrote:On March 24 2011 22:07 deconduo wrote:
If he's blue: Vote for him
If he's not: There will be a cc
Whats not to get? We hope if he's black there will be a cc. 4 blues and a bunch of noobs in the game. I'm not holding my breath. Anyways here is a 1 in 3 chance of hitting a red or a black: 1. Coagulation 2. darmousseh 3. Jackal58 4. annul 5. Tackster 6. Lemonwalrus I'm green. I suspect Coag is as well. So going on that we have a 50/50 shot at a red and a black between darm, annul, Tackster and LW. Tackster and Lemon I don't know. So I don't know what to expect out of their play. I haven't seen darm post yet. Is annul red again? Wouldn't put it past LSB to do so. Or maybe he changed it up and made him black. I would recommend confining our day 1 lynch to somebody on this list. Thanks for basically copying and restating my idea...this + being against bum's run makes me FoS you. If you said it I missed it. The only one I saw was Meapak's.
Then I wouldn't want you as a mayor at all. It's been posted/quoted a good 4-5 times. For mayor to miss something like that doesn't bode well for the future.
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On March 25 2011 00:20 BrownBear wrote:It's POSSIBLE that bum is a 3rd-party and our blue team is retarded. Very very unlikely though. I see no reason to not vote for him at least for the time being. Although, probably not happening, but imagine this: bum is 3rd party. Blues counterclaim. another 3rd party CCs the blue's counterclaim (nah guys, bum's a blue, so am i!). Blues with another of theirs. So on and so forth. Mafia rofls. We lose pretty hard
So on until it's 4-4, we give Mayor to someone else, lynch Bum and see what he flips as. Blue? Kill the 4 counterclaiming. Black? Kill the 3 defending him. At worst we trade Bum for the ENTIRE black party. Hell of a trade if you ask me.
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On March 25 2011 00:20 BrownBear wrote:It's POSSIBLE that bum is a 3rd-party and our blue team is retarded. Very very unlikely though. I see no reason to not vote for him at least for the time being. Although, probably not happening, but imagine this: bum is 3rd party. Blues counterclaim. another 3rd party CCs the blue's counterclaim (nah guys, bum's a blue, so am i!). Blues with another of theirs. So on and so forth. Mafia rofls. We lose pretty hard
You are insane. Occam's Razor.
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EPT
