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One thing to note is that there is more than one set of clues in the post. The clues pointing to jackal58 seem to be really strong and the clues towards beneather or deconudo are also good, but don't seem quite as strong. I also suspect nemesis is an SK.
I'm going to vote jackal today because of the strength of the clues (and how little the mod had to go off of). Also him suddenly claiming vet is very scummy. If I was a vet I would try to convince everyone I was a greenie instead because of the high likelihood the mafia will hit you for being too much in the limelight and to confuse everyone. Claiming vet now doesn't seem like a good idea.
Tomorrow I think we should vote nemesis and then look for more clues pointing towards beneather or decon.
It's very tempting to vote nemesis too, but I think the case for jackal58 is too powerful to overlook.
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On February 01 2011 04:53 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me. And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG.
Sorry, I didn't mean that they were busing him, JUST to get at me. I agree that Beneather is scummy looking, and I think that the rest of the town is too, so it's not much of a loss to bus him.
I would like to know what the town thinks of my theory of the night actions, because If I'm right, then the clues are about the SK and a Vig. NOT mafia.
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On February 01 2011 05:04 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 11:11 Node wrote:
We googled all the information in our post, we do not condone the actions of the mafia, and find it despicable. Please lay off of our backs now.
Lunar, you came to some of your conclusions based off of the hosts googleing info, right? Wouldn't they have caught that with the check they said they did?
I interpret that as:
1. We used google.
2. We do not agree with what mafia did and find the action wrong.
3. The last part "Please lay off of our backs now" is what I am struggling with.
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On February 01 2011 05:10 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 04:53 Barundar wrote:On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me. And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG. Sorry, I didn't mean that they were busing him, JUST to get at me. I agree that Beneather is scummy looking, and I think that the rest of the town is too, so it's not much of a loss to bus him.
I would like to know what the town thinks of my theory of the night actions, because If I'm right, then the clues are about the SK and a Vig. NOT mafia.
So according to your theory, then two night kills from mafia are missing.
-I say it is likely to GMarshal is telling the truth about absorbing one hit.
-Then where is the other hit?
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On February 01 2011 05:10 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 05:04 Kavdragon wrote:On January 30 2011 11:11 Node wrote:
We googled all the information in our post, we do not condone the actions of the mafia, and find it despicable. Please lay off of our backs now.
Lunar, you came to some of your conclusions based off of the hosts googleing info, right? Wouldn't they have caught that with the check they said they did? I interpret that as: 1. We used google. 2. We do not agree with what mafia did and find the action wrong. 3. The last part "Please lay off of our backs now" is what I am struggling with.
It just seems strange that they would so blatantly point to Google, if that would lead to obvious clues pointing at Decon/Beneather... Whatever, Clues are clues.
The last part i took to mean that the mafia were angry with the mods for making the clues too obvious. Ooooor that they read the article about the cannibal, and were throughly disgusted with it.
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On February 01 2011 05:13 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 05:10 Kavdragon wrote:On February 01 2011 04:53 Barundar wrote:On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me. And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG. Sorry, I didn't mean that they were busing him, JUST to get at me. I agree that Beneather is scummy looking, and I think that the rest of the town is too, so it's not much of a loss to bus him.
I would like to know what the town thinks of my theory of the night actions, because If I'm right, then the clues are about the SK and a Vig. NOT mafia. So according to your theory, then two night kills from mafia are missing. -I say it is likely to GMarshal is telling the truth about absorbing one hit. -Then where is the other hit?
The other hit is on an SK (unlikely) or it's on me, because they thought that the first shot would kill GMarshal, and I'd be unprotected. I donno, it makes sense to me, because we gained A LOT of information with that census that they would want to deny, but I wouldn't be the best judge of whether I'm paranoid or not...
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Oh yeah, googling "dog meat" does not work. You need to google "dog meat taste" to find that quote.
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On January 27 2011 11:18 Node wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 11:08 Beneather wrote:
^ was about to ask that question?
Or Did the Mafia and SK visit the same person. Do people know if they were visited? You are informed if an attempt is made on your life.
I think this clear one of Kav's theory that he is targeted.
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On February 01 2011 04:12 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 14:12 Impervious wrote:
Make up your mind, woman.....
First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it..... Haha, yes. That's exactly how it's supposed to go: Pressure the Mafia into posting more, analyze posting, convict, then lynch. Thank you for playing the game! So far I've passed the first stage, and I'm working on the analysis. We'll see if that leads to Conviction, or Vindication.
You forgot the little  face..... At least quote me properly.....
My analysis of you is "woman".
You jump to conclusions, don't read half of what I say, and even then, don't comprehend it properly.....
Now, onto your methodology:
If I had something to hide, why would I take the bite? It only gives you more information to base an unfounded assumption off of.....
Of course, then you could claim that I'm trying to cover my tracks by appearing to take the bite?
And then we're in a WIFOM situation.....
While the clues are nice, and analyzing everyone's posting history with such extreme scrutiny is an impressive accomplishment, looking at the logic behind what people do (not say, do) is also important. We're really, really early in the game so far, so there's not much to go by yet.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On February 01 2011 05:10 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 04:53 Barundar wrote:On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me. And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG. Sorry, I didn't mean that they were busing him, JUST to get at me. I agree that Beneather is scummy looking, and I think that the rest of the town is too, so it's not much of a loss to bus him.
I would like to know what the town thinks of my theory of the night actions, because If I'm right, then the clues are about the SK and a Vig. NOT mafia.
I'm not sure I follow. Do you have additional information we do not? What would make you think the second hit is a vig?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Another thing to think about is do we believe that our day one lynch ON was scum? In a 31 man set-up, 6 scum wouldn't be unreasonable. If so, then there were several people who defended him to some extent before the lynch.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 25 2011 12:17 papapanda wrote:
my thoughts are the first day clues are just an example of how the clue would be like for new players(like me:D) and are pointing towards people outside the game(like Qatol, LSB, Node...etc) In other words, not really relevent to ON? On January 25 2011 12:52 bumatlarge wrote:
Day1 clues are always very general and abstract. I'd be very surprised if everything you are pinning on ON is actually all real clues On January 25 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote:
It's day 1, and I would rather not talk about clues. Clues are rather vague until we get the hang of it. It is just derailing the thread here.
Another thing that hasn't been brought up in a while was the day one clue for god that was in Italian. The fact that the mafia hasn't pushed that clue might mean it points to a scum.
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Hello everyone.
Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours.
I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread.
First of all, town sucks.
Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this.
We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help.
Here's what I think:
a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him".
It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav.
b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that?
If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it.
c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him.
I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night.
Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather?
I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail.
Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red.
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P.S.: Kav, here's the thing:
As far as I understand, there's no clues towards the SK.
Mafia did roleblock BB (according to him).
So I think clues are about the mafia.
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On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote:
Hello everyone.
Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours.
I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread.
First of all, town sucks.
Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this.
We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help.
Here's what I think:
a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him".
It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav.
b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that?
If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it.
c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him.
I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night.
Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather?
I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail.
Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red.
If we're wrong about Beneather - we've taken away one of the things preventing our mayor from biting the dust..... If we're right - we could have saved that kill until later..... It's not like he's the only mafia in the game, after all..... I think lynching him is a bad idea right now, for that sole reason.
There's some somewhat convincing arguments against Jackal and against Nemesis, as well as some mediocre arguments against others (I have a feeling that some people are going to come after me eventually as well, but it's not unexpected when the clues are this vague). Unfortunately, we've gotta vote for someone in this setup, and if they are the best candidates at this moment, we'd be idiots for not giving it a shot now.
I realize that the mafia will try to snowball shit like this. But if the mafia keep trying to snowball things, we'll catch a slipup eventually. There's no way they'll be able to point fingers at the majority of the town before we can catch some kind of specific pattern going on. As long as we're careful to watch for it well enough.
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On February 01 2011 05:06 darmousseh wrote:
One thing to note is that there is more than one set of clues in the post. The clues pointing to jackal58 seem to be really strong and the clues towards beneather or deconudo are also good, but don't seem quite as strong. I also suspect nemesis is an SK.
I'm going to vote jackal today because of the strength of the clues (and how little the mod had to go off of). Also him suddenly claiming ve
Tomorrow I think we should vote nemesis and then look for more clues pointing towards beneather or decon.
It's very tempting to vote nemesis too, but I think the case for jackal58 is too powerful to overlook.
the old look at me indirectly defend nemesis by approving of jackal lynch but wait dont forget i said lets kill nemesis tommorrow so theres no way im his scumbuddy trying to save his ass.
got all your bases covered good job.
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is it a coincidence that darmousseh also passively Lynched ROL while holding the same half assed disposition against nemesis.
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nemesis is scum folks.
the reds did a good job of pretending they didnt give a fuck about him getting lynched last vote. unfortunately from the votes so far they are not doing a very good job this time.
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there are alot of familiar suspicious names voting for jackal.
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On February 01 2011 06:24 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 05:06 darmousseh wrote:
One thing to note is that there is more than one set of clues in the post. The clues pointing to jackal58 seem to be really strong and the clues towards beneather or deconudo are also good, but don't seem quite as strong. I also suspect nemesis is an SK.
I'm going to vote jackal today because of the strength of the clues (and how little the mod had to go off of). Also him suddenly claiming ve
Tomorrow I think we should vote nemesis and then look for more clues pointing towards beneather or decon.
It's very tempting to vote nemesis too, but I think the case for jackal58 is too powerful to overlook. the old look at me indirectly defend nemesis by approving of jackal lynch but wait dont forget i said lets kill nemesis tommorrow so theres no way im his scumbuddy trying to save his ass. got all your bases covered good job.
Why would I defend nemesis even remotely? I believe nemesis is an SK and in my understanding of the game kill mafia first, then kill SK. I'm voting nemesis tomorrow anyway regardless.
All I did was give a reasoning as to why I'm voting jackal58 today and why i'm voting nemesis tomorrow.
If nemesis is an SK then we are likely to see more clues pointing towards him again and we can be 100% sure of a good lynch.
If I could vote twice I would vote for nemesis as well, since I can't I'll vote for him tomorrow.
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United States22154 Posts
Personally I'm convinced by the clues, so I will vote Jackal unless someone has a very compelling argument otherwise
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EPT
