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TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 71

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 31 2011 19:26 GMT
#1401
On February 01 2011 04:00 Nemesis wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Pretty confident he's scum, clues fit well and he had motive to kill d3. Its possible that d3 fingered a large portion of the mafia team, which would be the reason they killed him off. Theres not a whole lot of other reasons for it.

Looking back at d3's list of suspects:
Nemesis
Darmousseh
Beneather
kitaman27
Eti307
LunarDestiny
GMarshal

Of these I think Nemesis and Beneather are certain mafia. Lunar is high up on the list as well, he completely ingored beneather as a possibility for the dog meat clue and tunnelled me instead. Probably trying to divert attention from beneather.

Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.

My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.

Ok a few things bother me about this post.
1. Completely no mention of jackal...trying to save your scumbuddy here?
2. Killing town's census over a WIFOM argument over speculations on d3's death. Ace has mentioned it before in TMM3 when aidnai mislynched in LYLO because of speculating on why mafia would fakeclaim being roleblocked, "You don't know what mafia knows" so you shouldn't speculate too much on what they might do.
3. And in his post after, I don't see how you jumped to the conclusion that I was defending beneather when I was clearly at the top of your list. The obvious conclusion would be I'm defending myself. Trying too hard to connect factions here?


2. Getting 2 mafia 100% for mayor is worth it imo

3. Yes you were defending yourself obviously, but its the fact that you completely ignored the case against beneather which lead me to that conclusion. Seeing as beneather is most of my argument, you just conveniently skipping past that bit and attacking me instead is a sure sign of a chainsaw defence.

1. I should mention Jackal why exactly? This is massively contradictory; I'm scummy for saying you ignoring the crux of my argument is a chainsaw defense of beneather (which it is) Yet, me not mentioning Jackal when it has nothing to do with anything I'm saying means I'm his scumbuddy? Yeah, dig yourself deeper.
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
January 31 2011 19:29 GMT
#1402
On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.

My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.


Out of curiosity, is this an FoS?
Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon:

There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night:

Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3.
Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3.
Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me.
Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target.

Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case:
Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK.
If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor.

Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea?
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote:
##Unvote: Nemesis
##Vote: Deconduo

I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 31 2011 19:29 GMT
#1403
On February 01 2011 04:22 LunarDestiny wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 04:16 deconduo wrote:
What does Jackal have to do with anything I've been saying?

I don't want to kill the mayor. I suspect him somewhat but not enough to want him dead for nothing. However if he dies during the night that gives us TWO confirmed scum. I'd be happy even going one for one, two for one is amazing. Unless a/the vig has someone better to shoot, then go for it. Worst case scenario is that the mayor doesn't die.

Out of curiosity:
Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor?

I am very certain that dog meat is a clue pointing to a killer. I recall only you and Beneather have dog related profile. I am super reluctant to lynch a bodyguard.

Also, scum bodyguard protects scum mayor.


How nice of you to join us. Why did you completely ignore the dog in beneather's profile when you voted for me? Not to mention the fact that there are a shitton more clues pointing to beneather.
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
January 31 2011 19:30 GMT
#1404
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 31 2011 19:32 GMT
#1405
FoS is Finger of Superstition... everyone else call it Finger of Suspicion though.
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
January 31 2011 19:32 GMT
#1406
"My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum."

My only issue with this is that if Beneather is mafia then its possible for mafia to stack hits on me and make sure I die, and then they get a free mayor kill, I'm actually up for anything that confirms me as a townie, but I dont know if its worth giving the mafia a chance to deprive us of the census.

Moderator
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 31 2011 19:37 GMT
#1407
On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.

My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.


Out of curiosity, is this an FoS?
Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon:

There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night:

Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3.
Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3.
Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me.
Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target.

Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case:
Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK.
If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor.

Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea?
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote:
##Unvote: Nemesis
##Vote: Deconduo



Not a FOS, just something to keep around, but honestly I don't think much of it yet. Kita has been somewhat outspoken against nemesis so it is unlikely they are both mafia and I like Nemesis as scum a lot more than kita. Also I think GMarshal is probably SK or telling the truth about being protected.

I must have missed the part where town asked vig to hit d3. Even if thats the case it would mean beneather is vig and there your logic fails.

deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 31 2011 19:39 GMT
#1408
On February 01 2011 04:32 GMarshal wrote:
"My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum."

My only issue with this is that if Beneather is mafia then its possible for mafia to stack hits on me and make sure I die, and then they get a free mayor kill, I'm actually up for anything that confirms me as a townie, but I dont know if its worth giving the mafia a chance to deprive us of the census.



Yeah, this would actually be the worst case scenario, so meh probably not a good idea in hindsight. Might be something to think about later on if we still have a vig.
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
January 31 2011 19:40 GMT
#1409
On February 01 2011 03:51 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 03:21 Nemesis wrote:
On February 01 2011 03:13 deconduo wrote:
On February 01 2011 03:06 Nemesis wrote:
On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Pretty confident he's scum, clues fit well and he had motive to kill d3. Its possible that d3 fingered a large portion of the mafia team, which would be the reason they killed him off. Theres not a whole lot of other reasons for it.

Looking back at d3's list of suspects:
Nemesis
Darmousseh
Beneather
kitaman27
Eti307
LunarDestiny
GMarshal

Of these I think Nemesis and Beneather are certain mafia. Lunar is high up on the list as well, he completely ingored beneather as a possibility for the dog meat clue and tunnelled me instead. Probably trying to divert attention from beneather.

Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.

My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.

You have some nice WIFOM there as your argument. Not a whole lot of reason to take out d3 other than he pointed scum? No one was even following d3's list at the time, and I doubt they anyone would follow it with how inactive he has been. Can't think of any other reason why mafia would kill d3? How about doing what you are doing now and framing the people he suspected?


-In what way is that WIFOM? Its a pretty good idea to kill off someone who suspects your entire team. Obviously theres no proof of that being the reason he was killed, but its a good theory imo. On the other hand, your argument is WIFOM.

-Nice chainsaw defense of beneather, I like how you completely ignored all the clues against him.

I wasn't defending beneather, I was attacking your bad logic, and as I said before I don't care too much about clues. Yes, I know what I said is WIFOM, but what you said is also WIFOM, and I am pointing that out to you. I have just showed you how it is WIFOM by creating a probable scenario which contradicts your WIFOM situation.


I am not going to let you bait me into an argument over WIFOM as I'm sure you would like to divert attention from important matters once again. I will however clarify my logic:

-I feel that the clues point quite clearly towards beneather being the scum that killed d3. It is also much more likely that it was a mafia kill rather than an SK kill.

-As d3 had already pointed out suspicions towards beneather, amongst others, this would be a good motive for the kill. OBVIOUSLY only the killer (or his team) knows the exact reasoning behind making a kill, however it does no harm to speculate especially on an unexpected kill.

-I know that all the times I've been mafia, I've always tried to kill people who get too close to working out who we are. You can see I was thinking about this early when I looked over at who had been killed so far. This was before I suspected Beneather at all.


Finally, lets take a look at the people who lynched RoL and saved Nemesis on day 2:

bumatlarge
LunarDestiny
Nemesis
darmousseh
Beneather
kitaman27
Eti307
kavdragon (switched)

Notice any similarities?

Yes I do.

Nemesis
Impervious
Coagulation
Beneather
LunarDestiny
darmousseh

From this post.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=7779204
Life can only kill you once.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 31 2011 19:44 GMT
#1410
On February 01 2011 04:29 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 04:22 LunarDestiny wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:16 deconduo wrote:
What does Jackal have to do with anything I've been saying?

I don't want to kill the mayor. I suspect him somewhat but not enough to want him dead for nothing. However if he dies during the night that gives us TWO confirmed scum. I'd be happy even going one for one, two for one is amazing. Unless a/the vig has someone better to shoot, then go for it. Worst case scenario is that the mayor doesn't die.

Out of curiosity:
Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor?

I am very certain that dog meat is a clue pointing to a killer. I recall only you and Beneather have dog related profile. I am super reluctant to lynch a bodyguard.

Also, scum bodyguard protects scum mayor.


How nice of you to join us. Why did you completely ignore the dog in beneather's profile when you voted for me? Not to mention the fact that there are a shitton more clues pointing to beneather.

Again, how sure are you that Beneather is mafia? He got masked man, dog meat, and master chef as the clue. Of the three, I strongly believe that dog meat is the most powerful clue follow by masked man, master chef is iffy.

We missed both day 1 and day 2 lynch. I am not going to risk a potential bodyguard.
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
January 31 2011 19:49 GMT
#1411
On February 01 2011 04:37 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote:
On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.

My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.


Out of curiosity, is this an FoS?
Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon:

There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night:

Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3.
Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3.
Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me.
Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target.

Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case:
Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK.
If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor.

Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea?
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote:
##Unvote: Nemesis
##Vote: Deconduo



Not a FOS, just something to keep around, but honestly I don't think much of it yet. Kita has been somewhat outspoken against nemesis so it is unlikely they are both mafia and I like Nemesis as scum a lot more than kita. Also I think GMarshal is probably SK or telling the truth about being protected.

I must have missed the part where town asked vig to hit d3. Even if thats the case it would mean beneather is vig and there your logic fails.



Uh...What? How does that mean that Vig is Beneather? Also, I asked for the vig to hit him. LINK
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 31 2011 19:51 GMT
#1412
On February 01 2011 04:49 Kavdragon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 04:37 deconduo wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote:
On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.

My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.


Out of curiosity, is this an FoS?
Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon:

There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night:

Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3.
Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3.
Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me.
Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target.

Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case:
Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK.
If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor.

Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea?
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote:
##Unvote: Nemesis
##Vote: Deconduo



Not a FOS, just something to keep around, but honestly I don't think much of it yet. Kita has been somewhat outspoken against nemesis so it is unlikely they are both mafia and I like Nemesis as scum a lot more than kita. Also I think GMarshal is probably SK or telling the truth about being protected.

I must have missed the part where town asked vig to hit d3. Even if thats the case it would mean beneather is vig and there your logic fails.



Uh...What? How does that mean that Vig is Beneather? Also, I asked for the vig to hit him. LINK


Clues show beneather killed d3. If vig killed d3 -> beneather is vig.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 31 2011 19:52 GMT
#1413
Back to discussing today's lynch which ends in about 6 hours. It's not like I will be able to convince people to lynch 1 of the 2 dog profile players.

If I have to choose between Nemesis and Jackal, I would prefer Nemesis since keywords from his profile are all over the place. His bare escape from Day2 lynch is somewhat alarming since RoL won by only 1 vote.
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 31 2011 19:53 GMT
#1414
On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me.

And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG.

For today's targets:

Jackal: I still want you to answer my questions regarding the vet discussion.

Deconduo: Ballsy plan suggestions are big plusses in my book. The plan was kinda scummy though, would make it easy to pick off mayor.

Nemesis: I never thought he was scum, but at this point we will be strugling killing anyone else, any day, beceause of the suspecions against him. Hence we can kill him off.
Bartundar
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 31 2011 19:54 GMT
#1415
On February 01 2011 04:44 LunarDestiny wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 04:29 deconduo wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:22 LunarDestiny wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:16 deconduo wrote:
What does Jackal have to do with anything I've been saying?

I don't want to kill the mayor. I suspect him somewhat but not enough to want him dead for nothing. However if he dies during the night that gives us TWO confirmed scum. I'd be happy even going one for one, two for one is amazing. Unless a/the vig has someone better to shoot, then go for it. Worst case scenario is that the mayor doesn't die.

Out of curiosity:
Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor?

I am very certain that dog meat is a clue pointing to a killer. I recall only you and Beneather have dog related profile. I am super reluctant to lynch a bodyguard.

Also, scum bodyguard protects scum mayor.


How nice of you to join us. Why did you completely ignore the dog in beneather's profile when you voted for me? Not to mention the fact that there are a shitton more clues pointing to beneather.

Again, how sure are you that Beneather is mafia? He got masked man, dog meat, and master chef as the clue. Of the three, I strongly believe that dog meat is the most powerful clue follow by masked man, master chef is iffy.

We missed both day 1 and day 2 lynch. I am not going to risk a potential bodyguard.


You already agreed that the dog clue is pretty concrete and that it could only point to me or beneather. Beneather was already a top suspect before dog meat was worked out, and yet somehow you don't agree that this puts the nail in his coffin?
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
January 31 2011 19:55 GMT
#1416
On February 01 2011 04:53 Barundar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me.

And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG.

For today's targets:

Jackal: I still want you to answer my questions regarding the vet discussion.

Deconduo: Ballsy plan suggestions are big plusses in my book. The plan was kinda scummy though, would make it easy to pick off mayor.

Nemesis: I never thought he was scum, but at this point we will be strugling killing anyone else, any day, beceause of the suspecions against him. Hence we can kill him off.

Sorry I missed it. I'm at work right now and my time is limited. I'll answer when I get home tonight and can go through the thread.
Life can only kill you once.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 31 2011 19:58 GMT
#1417
On February 01 2011 04:52 LunarDestiny wrote:
Back to discussing today's lynch which ends in about 6 hours. It's not like I will be able to convince people to lynch 1 of the 2 dog profile players.

If I have to choose between Nemesis and Jackal, I would prefer Nemesis since keywords from his profile are all over the place. His bare escape from Day2 lynch is somewhat alarming since RoL won by only 1 vote.


Yeah I came to this conclusion too which is why I am voting Nemesis and not beneather.

I want to ask you this again though, why did you go straight for me and not even mention beneather when you worked out the dog meat clue?
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 31 2011 19:59 GMT
#1418
On February 01 2011 04:54 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 04:44 LunarDestiny wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:29 deconduo wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:22 LunarDestiny wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:16 deconduo wrote:
What does Jackal have to do with anything I've been saying?

I don't want to kill the mayor. I suspect him somewhat but not enough to want him dead for nothing. However if he dies during the night that gives us TWO confirmed scum. I'd be happy even going one for one, two for one is amazing. Unless a/the vig has someone better to shoot, then go for it. Worst case scenario is that the mayor doesn't die.

Out of curiosity:
Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor?

I am very certain that dog meat is a clue pointing to a killer. I recall only you and Beneather have dog related profile. I am super reluctant to lynch a bodyguard.

Also, scum bodyguard protects scum mayor.


How nice of you to join us. Why did you completely ignore the dog in beneather's profile when you voted for me? Not to mention the fact that there are a shitton more clues pointing to beneather.

Again, how sure are you that Beneather is mafia? He got masked man, dog meat, and master chef as the clue. Of the three, I strongly believe that dog meat is the most powerful clue follow by masked man, master chef is iffy.

We missed both day 1 and day 2 lynch. I am not going to risk a potential bodyguard.


You already agreed that the dog clue is pretty concrete and that it could only point to me or beneather. Beneather was already a top suspect before dog meat was worked out, and yet somehow you don't agree that this puts the nail in his coffin?

I will not risk census for the chance of killing a mafia. I am just confident that at least one of you is mafia.

For now, I will let mafia tell us if Beneather is mafia or not (if they choose to go after census). On the other hand, if you got any more clues, I will go after you again.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 31 2011 20:02 GMT
#1419
On February 01 2011 04:58 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 04:52 LunarDestiny wrote:
Back to discussing today's lynch which ends in about 6 hours. It's not like I will be able to convince people to lynch 1 of the 2 dog profile players.

If I have to choose between Nemesis and Jackal, I would prefer Nemesis since keywords from his profile are all over the place. His bare escape from Day2 lynch is somewhat alarming since RoL won by only 1 vote.


Yeah I came to this conclusion too which is why I am voting Nemesis and not beneather.

I want to ask you this again though, why did you go straight for me and not even mention beneather when you worked out the dog meat clue?

I ignored Beneather and went after you because
-He is bodyguard.
-I did a clue analysis of you long time ago and got ignored so I brought it back. p. 61
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
January 31 2011 20:04 GMT
#1420
On February 01 2011 04:51 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 04:49 Kavdragon wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:37 deconduo wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote:
On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.

My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.


Out of curiosity, is this an FoS?
Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon:

There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night:

Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3.
Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3.
Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me.
Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target.

Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case:
Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK.
If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor.

Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea?
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote:
##Unvote: Nemesis
##Vote: Deconduo



Not a FOS, just something to keep around, but honestly I don't think much of it yet. Kita has been somewhat outspoken against nemesis so it is unlikely they are both mafia and I like Nemesis as scum a lot more than kita. Also I think GMarshal is probably SK or telling the truth about being protected.

I must have missed the part where town asked vig to hit d3. Even if thats the case it would mean beneather is vig and there your logic fails.



Uh...What? How does that mean that Vig is Beneather? Also, I asked for the vig to hit him. LINK


Clues show beneather killed d3. If vig killed d3 -> beneather is vig.


Wrong. It has been said time, and time again, that the clues are in the post, but not necessarily in the description of the victims death. There is no correlation between clues in the killing of Meapak, and Meapak's killer.

IF, IF we assume that the clues point towards him, then he could be the SK as well. And I'm not convinced that the clues are being interpreted correctly.


On January 30 2011 11:11 Node wrote:
We googled all the information in our post, we do not condone the actions of the mafia, and find it despicable. Please lay off of our backs now.

Lunar, you came to some of your conclusions based off of the hosts googleing info, right? Wouldn't they have caught that with the check they said they did?
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
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