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TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 73

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 31 2011 22:03 GMT
#1441
Nemesis
Beneather
darmousseh
Eti307

Top of my scum list.
darmousseh
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3437 Posts
January 31 2011 22:31 GMT
#1442
Agh I can't decide. I reread over the clues again and it really looks like nemesis is one of those identified.

I believe that nemesis is an SK and jackal is mafia. Am I correct to think that we should lynch the mafia first? Or is there a good reason to lynch SK first? For census purposes though I would think we need to find out if our clue analysis is correct.



Developer for http://mtgfiddle.com
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
January 31 2011 22:57 GMT
#1443
Ok, so I realize we have only 3 hours till the lynch, but I just have a bad feeling about all of these lynches. Beneather should NOT be lynched yet. This is not so that I stay alive, but so that the town continues to get the census information.

Jackal's play doesn't seem that deviant from his town play. To put it bluntly, the only thing I see going for him is the Steel clue. He is very active in the thread, so if he's scum, he'll slip up eventually, and we can get him then.

Nemesis' play also doesn't strike me that different that his normal play. He's distracting the town, and looks a bit scummy, but that's the way he's played from what I remember of our games. He's also very active in the forum, so catching him shouldn't be too hard given enough time.

It's the people who aren't posting that we need to worry about here. I think that we should lynch an inactive. Yes, it's day 3, but lynching an inactive is better than lynching an Active townie.

Deconduo, you put out Eti307, and I think that's a perfectly fine inactive to lynch. I'm open to suggestions for what specific inactive, but I don't think that we should switch who with less than 2.5 hours left, so get thinking.

To those who think Nemesis is SK, do you see any clues to him in the day 3 post? Cause I believe that everyone agrees that the SK was the one who was inactive.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4200 Posts
January 31 2011 23:02 GMT
#1444
If you want to switch, lets do it. I'll switch.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
January 31 2011 23:06 GMT
#1445
On February 01 2011 05:23 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 05:10 Kavdragon wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:53 Barundar wrote:
On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me.

And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG.


Sorry, I didn't mean that they were busing him, JUST to get at me. I agree that Beneather is scummy looking, and I think that the rest of the town is too, so it's not much of a loss to bus him.


I would like to know what the town thinks of my theory of the night actions, because If I'm right, then the clues are about the SK and a Vig. NOT mafia.


I'm not sure I follow. Do you have additional information we do not? What would make you think the second hit is a vig?


+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.

My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.


Out of curiosity, is this an FoS?
Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon:

There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night:

Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3.
Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3.
Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me.
Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target.

Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case:
Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK.
If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor.



Summary: Town asks for Vig to hit D3. Vig hits D3. Mafia hits GMarshal, and Me. SK is inactive.
Thus, only the Vig and SK will have clues. (SK because the mods said they would)


On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote:
Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather?
I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail.
Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red.

No. Lynching Beneather is a bad idea this early in the game. I will consider the possibility of GMarshal being red.


On February 01 2011 06:05 CubEdIn wrote:
P.S.: Kav, here's the thing:
As far as I understand, there's no clues towards the SK.
Mafia did roleblock BB (according to him).
So I think clues are about the mafia.


No, the mods said that there would be clues to the SK, just not every night. Also, if you read the Day 3 post, you'll find that they said that they WERE putting clues in for some person that was inactive. (Mafia don't have to hit, Vig doesn't either, BB was RB'ed and GMarshal was hit, so the only possible explination is that the SK didn't shoot. )
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
January 31 2011 23:08 GMT
#1446
Let's keep all votes here for now. If we can get four - five people to agree to lynch him in the next half hour, let's go for it.

Don't let the votes trickle on though. If we do this, we need to make sure we can do it, then do it quick.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4200 Posts
January 31 2011 23:10 GMT
#1447
K, i'll be able to switch last-minute if need be.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
darmousseh
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3437 Posts
January 31 2011 23:11 GMT
#1448
On February 01 2011 07:57 Kavdragon wrote:
To those who think Nemesis is SK, do you see any clues to him in the day 3 post? Cause I believe that everyone agrees that the SK was the one who was inactive.


Flash on his profile. Steel in his quote.
flashes of steel


"Unknown to death.
Nor known to life." on his profile
We never found the chef afterwards.


There could still be clues about the SK in the day post, unless a mod has said otherwise.
The other man didn’t do anything. And because the mods frown on not submitting your night action, we’re giving you clues on him even though he didn’t kill anyone.




It's not that much in comparison to jackal58 which I why I'm voting for him tonight and nemesis next lynching day.
Developer for http://mtgfiddle.com
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
January 31 2011 23:14 GMT
#1449
On February 01 2011 08:11 darmousseh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 07:57 Kavdragon wrote:
To those who think Nemesis is SK, do you see any clues to him in the day 3 post? Cause I believe that everyone agrees that the SK was the one who was inactive.


Flash on his profile. Steel in his quote.
Show nested quote +
flashes of steel


"Unknown to death.
Nor known to life." on his profile
Show nested quote +
We never found the chef afterwards.


There could still be clues about the SK in the day post, unless a mod has said otherwise.
Show nested quote +
The other man didn’t do anything. And because the mods frown on not submitting your night action, we’re giving you clues on him even though he didn’t kill anyone.




It's not that much in comparison to jackal58 which I why I'm voting for him tonight and nemesis next lynching day.


Oh lol. Sorry, that was me being lazy, and forgetful about the day post. Scratch that argument.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
ilovejonn
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Canada2548 Posts
January 31 2011 23:18 GMT
#1450
If Nemesis lives and I see another "flash/steel" clue ima facepalm.
Snowflakes in January, Heart warm like February, I wouldn't ordinarily..
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
January 31 2011 23:21 GMT
#1451
I'm willing to throw my support behind switching to eti as well, we have possible clues on all 3 people right now, but I don't feel great lynching any of them. eti hasn't really had a presence all game long, so I think it would serve well to rile up the lurkers.
you gotta dance
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
January 31 2011 23:27 GMT
#1452
Count me in for the switch to Eti, but I will be gone till 5. We just need to make sure that this vote switch is unavoidable, so the mafia can't use it to lynch Jackal/Nemesis. (Pick which one, that is.)
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
January 31 2011 23:27 GMT
#1453
Wiggles no. just no nononono
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Node
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2159 Posts
January 31 2011 23:27 GMT
#1454
On February 01 2011 04:16 deconduo wrote:

Out of curiosity:
Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor?


Yes.

On February 01 2011 02:13 darmousseh wrote:
What happens if the score is tied?


If by score you mean votes, the player with the most votes first is lynched.
whole lies with a half smile
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
January 31 2011 23:28 GMT
#1455
WHY KILL NEMESIS
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 31 2011 23:32 GMT
#1456
On February 01 2011 08:28 Kenpachi wrote:
WHY KILL NEMESIS

On January 30 2011 11:37 Kenpachi wrote:
##vote Nemesis ~~

wat
Bartundar
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
January 31 2011 23:34 GMT
#1457
Ok, I agree beneather is not a good kill, even if he is mafia. We do not drop the KPs anyway, and we make an opening to hit the mayor if we're wrong.

And I'm not gonna vote for Nemesis, sorry Jackal.
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 31 2011 23:39 GMT
#1458
Here is what I believe:

Flash of Steel is a recurring clue and the two main players it points to are Jackal and Nemesis.
So it is likely that one of them is mafia.

Dog meat is definitely a clue pointing to a mafia. Only Beneather and deconduo have profile relating to dog. I'll let this alone for now because Beneather is bodyguard and there is not enough evidence for lynching him.

So back to Jackal and Nemesis. If we let both of them alive AND "flash of steel" reappear in the day4 post, we still have to deal with that shit.
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
January 31 2011 23:39 GMT
#1459
Also, to everyone voting for Nemesis, consider this:

On January 29 2011 11:30 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2011 11:24 Nemesis wrote:
Meh, I changed my vote to RoL as it gives me the best chance of survival.

It's 6-6 right now, and I think since I reached 6 votes first, I will still be lynched. I'm going to tell you right now that I am just green.

Just some last notes before I die:
CubedIn - I think barundar might have a case against him. It's worth looking into.
Brownbear - he seems to have analyzed all the lynch targets except for me. :/ Just something to note.


This seems rather honest to me.
The fact is, if he was a mafia trying not to get lynched he would:

a) claim medic or vig
b) try to get more votes on RoL, instead he's picking me, who was only picked on by one dude so far. It's like.. the least possible scenario to try and get me pushed during the last 2 hours. It can only mean that he's just trying to help town and actually thinks I'm scum. Which is fair enough.

He could still be SK, maybe, but I'm gonna take my vote off him. And put it on... ummm... someone else.


Look at his post, and my reasoning below
This is not how a mafia posts when he's that close to being lynched. Have you even played this game before? A vig claim, (even though it might be true for jackal), is much more effective at diverting a lynch... here's the proof in tonight's tally..
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
January 31 2011 23:44 GMT
#1460
On February 01 2011 08:32 Barundar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2011 08:28 Kenpachi wrote:
WHY KILL NEMESIS

Show nested quote +
On January 30 2011 11:37 Kenpachi wrote:
##vote Nemesis ~~

wat

I MEAN WHY?
KILL NEMESIS
sorry the idea of changing to Eti at the last second is retarded.
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
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