EPTLynch LD, then worry about it tomorrow..... Keep discussing if you want.....
TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 102
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Impervious
Canada4216 Posts
Lynch LD, then worry about it tomorrow..... Keep discussing if you want..... | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
Cub is scum. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Also, in my experiance, arguments like this one are usually between two townies. Just because you want to kill each other doesn't mean that the town is going to waste it's KP doing that. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On February 02 2011 11:25 LSB wrote: Day 4 ![[image loading]](http://ciaran-walsh.com/images/Kosinski/H3/halo_1.jpg) Harmlessly passing your time in the grassland away; That picture is from the first Halo 3 advertisement. I actually recognized it right away, but failed to make the obvious connection to Beneather's profile pic... | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On February 06 2011 13:06 Kavdragon wrote: Oh, btw. I realized this a while ago, but forgot to post it, because Beneather was already confirmed Mafia at that point. (I know, EPIC FAIL on my part not connecting this to Beneather right away.) That picture is from the first Halo 3 advertisement. I actually recognized it right away, but failed to make the obvious connection to Beneather's profile pic... OMG i remember that advertisement now. Nice. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Remember how I wrote a "My case for Bum" analysis? I wrote a "Dear Impervious" analysis soon afterwards. Remember how I revisited with "My case for Bum v2.0"? I'm writing a "Dear Impervious v2.0" now. Guess I just need to be more confident and push harder for a lynch with my FoS's. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Looking forward to a lively discussion with you. GL.  | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Dear Impervious: v2.0 IN TWO PARTS! + Show Spoiler [Clues! Good ones, I think!] + I haven't had much time these past few day because of school, but I managed to look back over the clues from the past days. I've been looking at the all wrong, and nothing has seemed to work out very well, but after reviewing some of the stuff in the other clue game LSB ran, I think I have a better idea of how they work. On January 27 2011 11:01 Node wrote: The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. For real cries And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... And then the flash of steel from real guns Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body. The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone. It has already been pointed out that this sounds like a Zergling. Within SC2 books, Zerglings are often described as being the size of "deer", so that makes sense. A scream no animal can make? Fits. All the descriptions seems to work well. On February 02 2011 11:25 LSB wrote: I made my way into the caves, and saw all that I needed to see. On the edge of the light, ilovejonn’s body sprawled on the floor. A beast hunched over him, an alien form that I had never seen before. “I’m sorry. I do this for the greater good,” it growled, and then the ground cracked open under it, and it disappeared. Further evidence of a zerg burrowing. More evidence that it's an alien. Pretty sure it's a zergling at this point. Now, what could the zergling refer to? No one who is alive has any reference to zerglings, except for maybe Impervious's post icon, but icons can change as the game goes on. Heck, even mine has changed this game. His will change as soon as he hits.... Oh wait. Huh. That's strange. Impervious' posting icon seems to have been permanently set to a zergling. + Show Spoiler [Post Analysis!] + Well, I've never been one to lynch off of clues, so let's take a look at your posting! On January 27 2011 09:49 Impervious wrote: Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. This was a defense of Bum, and a suggestion of several scummy ideas: lynching people who voted for me, Random lynching for the first few days... In general, a display of poor logic that benefits Bum On January 27 2011 10:16 Impervious wrote: Look at it this way - I'll assume there's 4 mafia (possibly more, but this is a very conservative estimate). Without the mafia votes, it should break even, roughly (assuming both are going to get 50% of the votes). Kavdragon got 18 votes, RoL got 11. If Kavdragon is mafia, and had the support of all 3 other mafia members, that would mean that the town voted 15:11 in favor of Kavdragon. A little lopsided, but still close. He recieved a little under 60% of the votes, which is definitely reasonable, because both players had a strong platform. If RoL is mafia, and had support from the other 3 members, then the votes would have been 18:8. That's around 70% voting for Kavdragon. Much further off. If there are more mafia players, it would look closer to a 50/50 split for Kavdragon if he was mafia, yet look worse for RoL if he was mafia. At the moment, we don't have much to go by. One thing we do have is who voted for who (not everyone has been talkative, and it seems that it's backfired on the people who have). I do agree that we don't have enough to go by for a solid case aganst any one player, including our mayor and runner-up, based on what they've said so far in the game. Which is why I think that looking at it from a statistical point of view may be our best option at the moment. Support of the whole push for looking statistics, something that was spearheaded by Bum On January 30 2011 12:18 Impervious wrote: Frankly, if you've ever read through that, you'd find that it's actually more fucked up as the connection you're trying to make here is..... I definitely think there's something up with Jackal58 though. "Steel", "Black", and relatively inactive which may indicate that he was the one that the clues are about? The first of many posts supporting Jackal's "Steel" clue, something that I believe was part of a concerted (and quite successful) effort by the mafia to help the town look at the clues the totally wrong way. It's not word matching game, it's clue game. I'm not entirely sure why it took me this long to figure that out, but it's pretty obvious now. On January 27 2011 13:17 Impervious wrote: (My first "Dear Impervious" letter) tbh, I'm kinda glad you called me out here. Hopefully it can get some discussion going. We need more than we've got..... Generate more discussion, Eh? So that would explain why you disappear for the next FIVE pages, post three one liners, then disappear for another TWELVE PAGES? Lol, fail scum. (But really, Fail me for not noticing that earlier) On January 31 2011 14:12 Impervious wrote: Make up your mind, woman..... First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it.....  On January 31 2011 14:14 Impervious wrote: PS - if you can't tell, there's a bit of sarcasm and dry humor in my post. Unfortunately, it doesn't come across as well as it would in a face-to-face conversation - there's only so much that text can convey..... This came across as very odd to me at the time, but I never really thought much about. Why would someone feel the need to make is so clear that he was being sarcastic? It comes off seeming like something that a very nervous person would do. Why would a townie be nervous because of a light FoS from me? Unless he wasn't a townie, and i was dead on the money with what I was saying... On February 01 2011 05:22 Impervious wrote: If I had something to hide, why would I take the bite? It only gives you more information to base an unfounded assumption off of..... Of course, then you could claim that I'm trying to cover my tracks by appearing to take the bite? And then we're in a WIFOM situation..... While the clues are nice, and analyzing everyone's posting history with such extreme scrutiny is an impressive accomplishment, looking at the logic behind what people do (not say, do) is also important. We're really, really early in the game so far, so there's not much to go by yet. Wait. Remember when I posted my first analysis of you? And you disappear for like, 17 pages? Huh. You bring up very good points for me, friend. On February 02 2011 14:33 Impervious wrote: Think about it - look at how people have been voting, look at how the clues have been leading us in the wrong direction..... Does it really make any sense that we haven't had a single fucking Mafia kill yet? There's something fishy about vig and SK hits not hitting a mafia at all (especially since any decent SK would be thinking that the mafia is winning, and therefore try to kill scum instead, and the clue last night really signals that a vig made a hit). The only way that could make any sense (without some extreme luck by the mafia) was if the mayor was lying to us. And if he was, it would be very, very easy to turn us against the wrong people..... Impervious has FoS'd two people in particular that I remember: Jackal, and Me. Mostly just trying to discredit me/make me out to be mafia. ANY analysis of my posting at that point would have shown me to be town, or SK. Only Mafia would have had the motivation for turning public opinion against the mayor, more importantly the census, at that point was Mafia. I remember you saying this earlier, in response to my first analysis: On January 27 2011 13:17 Impervious wrote: Agreed. But statistics can be used as a powerful analysis tool, and discounting one method of analysis is a foolish thing to do. So whatever happened to that other method of analysis? You know, the real kind? Cause you're sure not doing any of it... I could keep going with the rest of his posts, but I'm tired, and already convinced. If you aren't I'll continue, but I think between the clues, and the posts, this should be the obvious lynch for today. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
What do you think? | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
There is always the chance of someone being innocent despite a great analysis, and we can afford more mislynches if lunar dies first. We might be guranteed to win if we hit mafia tonight, but if you think about it, the only way it's possible for us to lose is actually if lunar is alive and he helps mafia. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On February 06 2011 16:30 Barundar wrote: I think we shouldn't rush it kav. Im as certain as i can be on kenpachi as well, but i would rather not try and rush for a fast win and lose at this point. That seems to me to be the mistake mafia did. There is always the chance of someone being innocent despite a great analysis, and we can afford more mislynches if lunar dies first. We might be guranteed to win if we hit mafia tonight, but if you think about it, the only way it's possible for us to lose is actually if lunar is alive and he helps mafia. I fully agree with this, while I'm not sure of kenpachi, as I see it LD has pretty much gone from being a benefit to being a bane to the town, as we really have nothing solid to target him on. Thanks for all the help LD, but if we want to win we can't have you killing off more people at night. (Of course if you want to provide some kind of insightful analysis, it would be much appreciated) | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
If this: On January 24 2011 11:01 Node wrote: Day 1 It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain. Isn't this: ![[image loading]](http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/8131/avatarindy2xq.gif){kind=avatar} I'll eat my shorts. If you're worried about LD he can shoot me tonight. Mafia will stack another on me and I die. But we're down to 1 scum. Somebody is going to die tonight anyways. I volunteer. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
I like your case, but it's more beneficial for town to wait with killing mafia right now, and risk missing. Remember how tunneling Pandain in minimafia only helped mafia. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On February 06 2011 22:18 Barundar wrote: I like your clue analysis Jackal, but what if you are wrong? Why would Lunar hit you, when it's more beneficial for him to hit a green? What if some people vote for impervious, some for cubed, and some for lunar, and in the end mafia just kill a green? I like your case, but it's more beneficial for town to wait with killing mafia right now, and risk missing. Remember how tunneling Pandain in minimafia only helped mafia. I haven't forgotten. Cubed is scum. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Prepare your case and push for it tomorrow, when we only have 2 mafia left and no sk. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
GG LD. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Right now it's 11v2v1. If we lynch LD tonight, it's 10v2 tomorrow. This gives us atleast 4 lynches to hit 1 mafia. The only realistic chance at this point for mafia is to keep lunar alive, or hope for alot of modkilled townspeople. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4216 Posts
On February 06 2011 14:59 Kavdragon wrote: Dear Impervious: v2.0 A lot of interesting points, but, overall, a bunch of bullshit. You conveniently forget about stuff like this: On February 04 2011 06:10 Impervious wrote: Ok. So, I think we've established that LD is a SK. What to do about it now though? If we could use him as a KP tonight, to get rid of a suspected mafia, and lynch another suspected mafia tonight, we could figure out what we do with LD tomorrow (possibly lynch him tomorrow if no bigger targets for tomorrow night show up). If we lynch him tonight, yea, the game goes on longer, but the mafia still has a pretty big advantage. It's in his best interest to play along as long as possible, because he'll live as long as possible. If he steps out of line, we can get rid of him the next day. As a bonus, we may even knock the KP of the mafia down in the process. That is, however, assuming that we have 2 good targets for tonight. If not, it's more worthwhile to lynch LD right now. One thing I'm worried about is if we actually have 2 SK, and the mafia only has 1KP..... So, do we have 2 good targets for tonight, other than LD? If so, we really should think about lynching one of them instead, rather than get on this giant bandwagon that everyone seems to be on. And we ended up doing exactly this, allowing us to get 2 freaking mafia members overnight. I'd be a terrible mafia player if I was suggesting things like this..... Not to mention I was one of the first to switch my votes to a mafia member..... On February 01 2011 06:19 Impervious wrote: If we're wrong about Beneather - we've taken away one of the things preventing our mayor from biting the dust..... If we're right - we could have saved that kill until later..... It's not like he's the only mafia in the game, after all..... I think lynching him is a bad idea right now, for that sole reason. There's some somewhat convincing arguments against Jackal and against Nemesis, as well as some mediocre arguments against others (I have a feeling that some people are going to come after me eventually as well, but it's not unexpected when the clues are this vague). Unfortunately, we've gotta vote for someone in this setup, and if they are the best candidates at this moment, we'd be idiots for not giving it a shot now. I realize that the mafia will try to snowball shit like this. But if the mafia keep trying to snowball things, we'll catch a slipup eventually. There's no way they'll be able to point fingers at the majority of the town before we can catch some kind of specific pattern going on. As long as we're careful to watch for it well enough. I already saw the exact "clue" you saw in me by that point..... And I pointed out some decent logic as to why we shouldn't lynch Beneather (in case we were wrong). As soon as it was confirmed that he was a mafia, and we weren't gonna lynch LD, I was one of the first to switch to voting for him..... I was playing very smart for a mafia, right? ..... Impervious has FoS'd two people in particular that I remember: Jackal, and Me. Mostly just trying to discredit me/make me out to be mafia. ANY analysis of my posting at that point would have shown me to be town, or SK. Only Mafia would have had the motivation for turning public opinion against the mayor, more importantly the census, at that point was Mafia. Yes. The clues definitely looked like they pointed to Jackal..... That clue was brought up by Coagulation: On January 30 2011 11:24 Coagulation wrote: the only clue i could find http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Jackal58 Steeler picture in profile So are you suggesting that it's gotta be me and Coag (nemesis also played a part iirc, and he was already confirmed to be a non-red) as the last 2 mafia? Cause I wasn't the only person who thought it was a decent connection..... And I voted for Coag earlier on..... Really, if you think you're so good at analysis, how come you really fucked it up here? I was not one of the people who started the bandwagon..... Plus, I didn't stay on Jackal - a "better" option came up (who ended up being a greenie, unfortunately). It's not to say that I'm not still suspicious of Jackal, but, recently, there's been better options to vote for. Right now, it's LD so we can make the game go on as long as possible. Also, about the RNG mayor - any mafia would want to snag your position..... The rest would be vying for a spot as a bodyguard..... Of course I think it's a better idea to get someone randomly for the position (assuming the mafia try for the position harder than the average townie, since they want the position more, they're more likely to get it). From a statistical point of view, we're less fucked. And you freaking picked a mafia as bodyguard yourself..... It doesn't exactly help your case there..... Of course I don't think you're a mafia anymore. You ended up snagging us 2 red kills. Sick job. But it'd be a waste of a lynch on me..... But, of course, you won't figure that out till we win, or you end up lynching me anyways..... Meh, I dont' really feel like analyzing more of this BS right now..... | ||
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