|
Mini analysis of RoL
This is more of a statement of why I suspected RoL in the first place than a proper analysis. For a real analysis see http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=179009¤tpage=44#870. I put a lot of time and effort into that.
First let’s start out with some basic facts on RoL: First class player, awesome scumhunter and a veteran of TL mafia. For this reason he rarely sees day 2.
Examples:
HPmafia: Mafia learns RoL is a vet, and decides to spend two their night vigi hit on him as well as a normal hit night one.
Pokemafia: RoL gets sniped within hours of substituting in to the game, before he even make his first post.
ExMiMa: RoL instantly coins Aidnai, and has to be substituted out since he even picks up on DrH possibly admitting he is right.
Both DrH and bumatlarge was veteran snipes. While this is admittedly an unfair shortcut, the fact that mafia leave him be on first night hit, and instead aim for a blue snipe on Deconduo, is no good for my thoughts on RoL’s alignment.
Next let’s look at what he actually does on day 1. First post: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 04:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 18:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Meh I'll just start now, I have some time. We need to very carefully consider the framer role. It is often advised to detectives, by mafia, that a big town target should be checked to get "information". DT's should check the targets they think are most likely scum based on post behavior and that's pretty much all there is to it until later in the game when a lot of information actually can be gleaned from an alignment check. Framer Strategy: mafia railroads/advises DT to check a big town target with a lot of attention (for an example of this level of attention look at me in insane mafia) and then simply frame them. Pandain was effectively framed on day 1 of haunted and a DT checked him, because Pandain was an active poster but there was nothing scummy about any of his posts. It was a bad check. So beware of attempts to railroad you into checking certain targets especially if it happens in PM. I imagine myself, Pandain, LSB, and RoL will all be strong frame targets that is if they aren't going to be hit since they are likely to be checked. I'm not saying don't check veteran players, I'm saying check people you think are scum. Also DT's shouldn't claim if they find a red and definitely not in PM either. Build a case on that person. Read through their posts and seriously consider them. Read them as though they are mafia, what are they doing to hurt/mislead the town and does it make sense? They might be a miller (there are probably 2, that is the normal count) and they might also have been framed. When you checked someone and now they are mafia or are nearly certain you build a good case to get them lynched, you don't claim straight away because it's still possible the mafia won't hit you and if they do it become immediately apparent why you pushed so strong for a specific lynch which means the mafia have to do a lot of damage control especially if they tried to spread distrust/attack that DT. On December 27 2010 18:25 Ryuu314 wrote:On December 27 2010 17:57 ilovejonn wrote:On December 27 2010 17:46 Ryuu314 wrote:
Probably. I don't see how else the game could run otherwise.
7. Editing posts. Editing posts is not allowed for any reason. Anybody can see if you edited a post, and if you are caught, you will look suspicious. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be owned. I do have close connections to people who can check pre-edited material if you are truculent. Please do not edit; this is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything. Make sure you read all the rules. =) Oops x[ I remembered after I edited hahaha. I \was basically gonna say that Coag probably couldn't be mafia as the timing of his ban would probably prevent him from making hits? But then I looked up the time of his ban and it disproves my theory. The timing of his ban should have nothing to do with what role he may or may not be. Or rather what role I may or may not be. I'm gonna say this about vig's: don't shoot until night 3 or night 4. As the game progresses it gets easier and easier to find mafia and that's when efficient town KP use becomes super important. Don't blow your hit early, you'll more than likely miss. Your goal is to not get killed. As far as this Pandain bandwagon Idon't see why that is. This isn't a mafia thing it's just stupid but he did roleclaim village idiot to me in PM before the game started, not sure what that means. Probably nothing because he's just bad. If he's scum I'll catch him pretty quickly so I'm not worried about him at all. LunarDestiny's posts so far come off as the most scummy but that's just barely, no good target has presented itself yet to me for the lynch so I'll vote for myself. My work schedule is unpredictable and I don't want to get modkilled for it. As an addendum to the first part of this post. I don't think DrH hit it just right. Don't waste your time checking "big name" players. Since a GF is chosen you will get back a blue/green role on them pretty much no matter what. The way I play a detective role can be seen slightly in HP mafia. There were people I thought very likely to be scum, but there were two players I couldn't decide on, but was leaning towards mafia or jackass. OpZ and Orgolove. Night 1 I decided to Orgolove, but either check would of been adequate for my criteria. Usually a host RNG's the player list and makes mild adjustments for balance. The odds of a more recognized/good player getting into the mafia is increased and therefore they are likely to be the godfather. The only game where I would say the "veteran" player IMO wasn't GF was in Salem. They chose SouthRawrea over Radfield, but that could of been because of PM's and knowing where the check was going, or because radfield knew he was going to be inactive. So when you are a DT check someone who is playing aggressively/scummy and someone who you can't quite decide on their alignment. With a framer the odds are increased that you will get a bad check on a "veteran" player because they will either be godfather or framed. On that note though, the only real check we can use is a medic. If a medic protects someone and the day post is mafia KP-1 they can be almost 100% sure they protected someone good, especially if they are a "veteran" player. Anyway, I don't like making it seem like the DT role is so important which this seems like, I in fact view DT as a handicap that clouds a persons judgment. I would rather trust my behavioral analysis over DT checks any day of the week. I urge the utmost caution in using DT checks in this game, because I don't feel like having SouthRawrea 2.0 after I die and everyone becomes too stupid to realize who the leak was. Anyway, I got work in a little bit I will probably be back around 10ish.
This is not the RoL I’ve seen in other games. He doesn’t need to give out good advice, he blatantly finds scum and hunt them relentless. I wrote this to DrH straight away, but my concerns actually got dismissed when he posted: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 04:54 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 01:15 LSB wrote:Firstly, pointing out that someone isn’t on topic isn’t analysis. It’s just plain distracting. Why don’t you include my two posts at the start of the game? Their spam too! On December 28 2010 01:00 annul wrote:On December 27 2010 11:11 LSB wrote:+ Show Spoiler +I wanted to wait for the day post before posting this but w/e All right, in many games there was an uneventful first day. Lets not make this one of those games. A few things to talk about: - Should we lynch an inactive day one? Assuming of course, there is no good alternative
- Plans for the roles
Inactives:A big problem in every mafia game is inactivity. I don't want another drag_ being able to squeak by with barely any posts. We should immediately show it is not okay to be inactive. Inactive players hurt the town as they waste lynches down the road as the town will need to try to separate the mafia from the inactives. We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one. This will force the assassins to discuss and not be able to turtle, increasing the chance they will slip up. The key is that we have to make sure the town knows it is not okay to just simply sit back and not do anything. This way, hopefully everyone will be active and we won't need to lynch an inactive. PlanFirstly. DO NOT CLAIM DO NOT CLAIM Good now that we got that out of the way, some other ideas. Generic Blue Activity planOne plan that would work is to use the blue roles to promote activity in the town. The DTs should check the inactive people and the lurkers, as it is incredibly difficult if not impossible to tell the difference between a bored townie and a lurking mafia. The Medics should protect active players, this way the mafia won't be able to take out the people who are contributing the most to town, so people won't be scared of trying to put forth their opinions. Framer Issue: Framers are much better put to use framing the important townies. So any attempt by the mafia for framing the inactives would be a waste. "should we lynch an inactive?" <-- probably knows mafia is most likely to at least pay attention to the thread enough to evade being labeled inactive. probably knows even if there are mafia inactives, he can choose any other town inactive and maintain the aura of "hey im helping out town" the rest of this is informative sure, but common sense? but the line "We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one." worries me. much better to hit an active scummy person and LSB should know this. Please read Pokemafia. "DO NOT CLAIM" is good advice, and i would like to say obvious, but given current history and shit it isnt =\ Thanks! On December 27 2010 11:25 LSB wrote:On December 27 2010 11:20 TheMango wrote:
Isn't that part of the game? assuming you're using it strategically, and not just for fun/out of boredom? Of course. There's a few cases where claiming is okay. 1) You are about to be lynched. Don't expect this to save you, but it would be nice to tell the town what happens 2) DT checks you. The DT then messages you and say that "I know your role is [insert green/blue role here]. This is mainly used when the DT finds a red, and also finds a green. The green becomes the "DT Mouth" and tells the Town what the DT found out. 3) The Medic successfully protects you. Assuming that it wasn't a hit from the mad hatter, if the medic protects someone, that person probably isn't mafia. 4) The town thinks of some super awesome plan. The issue is when blues jump the gun and start claiming before they confirmed someone. That's a great way to get our blues sniped. (See Salem Mafia. For a short summary, look at the article in the Pony Express) 1 and 2 are fine, 3 is not - you don't claim here, you just admit to being hit - preferably to town circle if you know where it is. 4 is a catch-all sure, but claiming day 1 to a "super awesome plan" is a horrible idea. that said though, LSB is providing pure information (some of which is sketchy) and no analysis. this early it is usually fine but consider it in the light of his earlier postings? it is like he wants to be active but isnt contributing valuable stuff. Help me then. What analysis could I do at that point? On December 27 2010 12:37 LSB wrote:On December 27 2010 12:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
If he is of the belief I'm spamming, I've just been posting somewhat short responses because there hasn't really been anything worth discussing up to this point.
What do you feel about lynching inactives / spammers? What do you feel that the blues should do? more "hit inactives" crap - this is bad. also maybe a blue fish? Read the thread please On December 27 2010 12:43 LSB wrote:
Can I write one then? On December 27 2010 12:43 LSB wrote:
That was at Incog/Flamewheel wants to write a day post. uh huh. keep this in mind with the "try to appear active but not" lens. Do you seriously think that I need to pretend to be active? On December 27 2010 13:26 LSB wrote:
I don't believe Pandain is mafia just because he fingered Mr. Wiggles.
Clearly at the time Mr. Wiggles did not contribute anything, and Pandain just voted to accent his point.
Indeed, as Ver put in his town guide, spamming can be detrimental to the town.
Now, I don't belive we should lynch Mr. Wiggles. It is far to early to tell anything about him, and also I'd rather lynch a lurker/inactive than a spammer. HEY something of content, cool. sort of defense of pandain and blatant defense of mr. wiggles. sadly the rationale of "inactives instead!" is scummy. Why don't you analyze my defense of Pandain, what does it say? in conclusion, LSB has been making pure nonposts and/or pure informative posts without analysis, with the two exceptions being his insistence on the "kill inactives" theme and his defenses of pandain and mr. wiggles. yet he has like 30 posts up while saying almost absolutely nothing.
my vote is on LSB now. Nice ‘analysis’ yourself btw.
Back to pointing fingers like in other threads. Good ol’ RoL, and part of why I suspected LSB. But then:
+ Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 05:12 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I got my defense wrong! I have a strange idea. I think both annul and LSB might be mafia, this little tiff is exactly what annul/KJ did in ExMiMa although this is a little different. I know LSB is a better player than to attack his attacker AS mafia, its kind of an odd tell. My first thought was that he is probably town and just thought the analysis was scummy. But the analysis seems fine to me. The arguments almost feel a little forced too if you read through it. This is definitely something to keep in mind.
Wooops back to being different. Suddenly changed opinion, and feel the need to publicly doubt himself? Day 1 in HPmafia he was confident lying to town that he actually found LSB to be green, while pushing for his own lynch on Aidnai behind the scene. RoL doesn’t need to publicly doubt himself.
+ Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 05:26 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Alright so I finished catching up. I am really unsure about this whole LSB/Annul thing. But one thing I am sure about is that we CANT risk losing ANY blue role. We have no chance as winning as a town if we are throwing blues away day 1. The reason we aren't all green is because we REQUIRE blues to win. Judging by his initial claim LSB is a vigi but tried changing what he said because he didn't want to be so obvious with his claim but it doesn't matter. With a vigilante claim the mafia has a real incentive to kill him tonight to get rid of mafia KP, so we will know whether or not he is mafia in 2 days. There is NO reason to kill him now, since we can hold him off as a "sure thing" day 3 if he hasn't killed someone by then or is not dead. Now for RoL's badass analysis of the game, raping Red's day 1. SeraphShow nested quote +On December 27 2010 10:28 seRapH wrote:On December 27 2010 10:25 TheMango wrote:
where are my mafia team mates? lets start getting rid of some people. Hey guys this is an obvious slip-up, we should lynch TheMango. Town wouldn't want to "get rid" of people  Also DrH because there's always a high chance of him being mafia. A nothing post, just the pregame jovial attitude usually shown by mafia. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 10:54 seRapH wrote:
I highly doubt there's any more than 1 framer in this game, but we should keep rolecheck candidates to 4 or 5 to minimize framer/miller influence. One of my favorite little tells that a lot of people give off is format speculation early on, he is one of the first to discuss it. Seraph and LD. Although a LOT of people have done it in this game because their was a new role I think we can view this as an additional circumstance to his "mafia" behavior since a lot of people exemplify this strait. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 13:31 seRapH wrote:
Since we're discussing lynching inactives (which at this point I mostly agree with unless something drastically better pops up) what are we using to define "inactive"? <5 posts? No meaningful posts? And how will we pick the inactive? Or should we all pick our own inactive to lynch? At this point he gets on the"lets lynch inactives" train and trying to figure out how to define inactives. First off I am going to say this right now. Fuck lynching inactives. It is such a stupid plan most of the time, lynching an inactive does two VERY anti town things. One it provides ZERO information because generally there is no vote split on inactives its usually a unanimous decision among the town, and on top of that since there is NO information to decide on who we are going to lynch because they are inactive the mafia have a huge influence over just which inactive guy we decide to kill. In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 13:36 seRapH wrote:
Inactives with zero posts or votes will be modkilled/replaced, so I guess what I meant was lurkers. How will we determine who are lurkers and how will we pick which to be irradiated? Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 13:40 seRapH wrote:On December 27 2010 13:37 LSB wrote:On December 27 2010 13:31 seRapH wrote:
Since we're discussing lynching inactives (which at this point I mostly agree with unless something drastically better pops up) what are we using to define "inactive"? <5 posts? No meaningful posts? And how will we pick the inactive? Or should we all pick our own inactive to lynch? + Show Spoiler +Disclaimer: I don't believe that we'll actually lynch an inactive. How about Zero meaningful posts? If all they have is spam and one vote with an explination of "I agree". That would be an inactive Or if we seriously have no idea what to do, we could lynch someone about to be modkilled, a way to essentially abstain Except they could be replaced, not necessarily modkilled. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 14:04 seRapH wrote:On December 27 2010 13:43 LSB wrote:On December 27 2010 13:40 seRapH wrote:On December 27 2010 13:37 LSB wrote:On December 27 2010 13:31 seRapH wrote:
Since we're discussing lynching inactives (which at this point I mostly agree with unless something drastically better pops up) what are we using to define "inactive"? <5 posts? No meaningful posts? And how will we pick the inactive? Or should we all pick our own inactive to lynch? + Show Spoiler +Disclaimer: I don't believe that we'll actually lynch an inactive. How about Zero meaningful posts? If all they have is spam and one vote with an explination of "I agree". That would be an inactive Or if we seriously have no idea what to do, we could lynch someone about to be modkilled, a way to essentially abstain Except they could be replaced, not necessarily modkilled. Hmm... I wonder if the mafia would try to modkill one of their own members in hopes of getting the person replaced by DoctorH Ace did that back in insane. Well, we forced the mafia to find their own repacements, and Ace choose L. Bah DrH is our only replacement right? I kinda wish there were a few more but whatev =\ We are going to see a recurring trend with Seraph, He doesn't really ever stop talking about inactives and mod kills at all. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 14:22 seRapH wrote:
I don't want luck to have any more to do with this than it has to. Early vig hits is much too risky, and has just as much if not more chance of hitting blue than it does of hitting red. Sure reducing KP is important, but keeping our number of blues is even moreso. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 14:53 seRapH wrote:On December 27 2010 14:35 LunarDestiny wrote:
Vigs can only hit on or AFTER night 2 Right, so this isn't something that's exactly urgent, is it? Day 1 lynching, however, is. Now one big thing to notice here, he advises against using KP and uses a TERRIBLE argument. This is a giant redflag to me. Why the hell would there be a better chance of hitting a blue then a red with a vigi hit? If we hold off our vigi hits there is a better chance the mafia will kill the vigi and we lose that KP too. That's roughly equivalent to telling mad hatters not to place bombs until night 3 because chances are they will just bomb a blue. It just chances us wasting our KP that we shouldn't be. On top of that if a vigi is doing ANY amount of behavioral analysis then they should be able to hit a god damn red by night 2 if they choose to, MAYBE hold it off until night 3. I generally would not recommend holding off your hit because it increases the chance of the town losing it. And on top of that Seraph says we have more important things to discuss then vigi's, like the day 1 lynch. Alright, I can agree with that but seriously what the fuck is there to talk about if you are lynching an inactive? Exactly, nothing. Its just basically RNG whichever person not posting the mafia approves of and unanimously killing them. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 15:00 seRapH wrote:
Well given that it's day 1 we're mostly waiting for people to check in. So people should be pitching in about their stances on the following issues:
Day 1 lynch- Inactives or suspects, and then who?
Role of PMs in this game
Any questions you guys may have should also be asked, an informed town is a good town ^_^ Alright let me get this strait. By your agenda we should be lynching inactives and searching for them but we need to wait for people to check in day 1...? Pretty much self explanatory. So far we have seen a good amount of anti town posting from Seraph on top of a bit of spammyness. Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 07:49 seRapH wrote:
It's pretty obvious that the Pandain wagon makes zero sense, so if you were mafia trying to establish credibility letting that go through would be stupid.
Annul my vote is going on you now because after reading through this thread I also think your analysis has been forced.
Also I'm keeping an eye on meapak. This is one of the posts I found really interesting. The pandain wagon did make no sense and Seraph says what I think he is trying to do. We can just label it wifom. At the same time he discredits Annul saying his argument is forced Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 08:55 seRapH wrote:
A forced argument is when you try to conjure up something out of nothing. Then explains what forced means! But seriously, how is Annul's analysis forced? I read it, it felt pretty natural to me. Annul remains dedicated and keeps going for his lynch of LSB and LSB OMGUS him back which is a really shitty way to play and incredibly anti town. The thing is I also believe that could just be a blue tell from LSB believing his role to be important for town victory. The last thing he does is FOS on Meapak but not saying ANYTHING about why. At least give some reason. Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 11:54 seRapH wrote:On December 28 2010 11:52 why wrote:
Hi everyone, just got off from work and caught up with the thread.
It seems to me that the annul vs. LSB debate is distracting from the issue at hand, hunting inactives. This is clearly the way to avoid an apathetic town.
The list that LunarDestiny suggested isn’t the best idea. If there are 10 people on the list, then no one will feel pressured to respond unless everyone else on the list is responding. They will just be lurking amongst the people on the list who aren’t responding on the list.
The best way to pressure inactives is to vote for them and actually intend to lynch them unless they contribute something useful.
As such, I'm going to pick someone that hasn't posted yet and put my vote on them. If they come to the thread and contribute then I'll move my vote off them. My pick is GeorgeClooney. I like that you're going to help us with this inactive thing, but we shouldn't be lynching someone who's about to get modkilled for not showing up. Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 17:17 seRapH wrote:On December 28 2010 16:42 Node wrote:I think between annul and LSB it's actually quite likely that one of them is scum. In Haunted Mafia, DocH and Pandain continually re-iterated the same arguments against each other, making huge walls of text that consumed many pages, and diverted town discussion from important things for like two whole game days. In the end, Pandain was scum. The difference there was that there were no PMs that game, so it was more important to be able to follow the thread well. All the same, I'm sensing echoes of that here, especially since annul seems to want to continue to force the issue. I'll also say that I find annul's posting to be much scummier than LSB's. The way he's posting reminds me a lot of the way he played Experimental Mini Mafia (which was an interesting experience, as I knew he was scum from the beginning ), whereas LSB's defense and contribution seems a lot more like his posting in Pokemafia, where he was green. For now, I'm putting my vote on annul. I'm also going to be analyzing LunarDestiny, as I think his posting has been... strange, to say the least. Gonna work on that now. Just clearing this up, but you do mean Insane Mafia, not Haunted, right? Seraph then stresses that we go back to lynching inactives while clearing up such a trivial issue between insane/haunted mafia. The running trend with Seraph is anti town play, just focusing on lynching an inactive and really not committing at ALL on the annul/LSB situation. This could be because he doesn't want to be associated with supporting a bad lynch of either of them, or not wanting to side at risk of being exposed when his ally gets lynched. With that being said, I strongly believe Seraph is mafia and we should lynch to kill him and hold off on the LSB/Annul situation because of how important blue roles are to a town victory. On top of that if/when LSB fails to prove his claim we get another free mafia kill that we can make a vigi use. LSB is claiming to be able to PROVE his alliance by night 2 and if he can't then well I am sure we can do something about that can't we? We just need to stay focused and get him killed then and not get distracted by other "better" targets.
This is a great post, but there is 2 problems with it. The first problem is he advices town to hold off on killing LSB, because if LSB can’t prove he is blue, we can just lynch him later. This is solid and sound reasoning, and I was an idiot for not realising this myself. The problem is he leaves it like that. In all his posts the rest of the day, he doesn’t actually push the point: + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 05:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 05:20 Insanious wrote:
Wow... we get nothing as town from lynching LSB at all 0.
No info:
Anti LSB:
- Annul
Pro LSB:
- Me
Annul = town, easy to see
Me = town, because I know I'm town :/, hopefully my posts speak for me.
LSB turns up green:
- We have no suspects to look at
LSB turns red:
- We look at me... awesome?
want to know how I know LSB isn't red...
No one is trying to divert the lynch, if LSB was red, the mafia would be trying to throw up another name to be lynched instead of LSB. Is that happening? NOOOOO
Mafia are throwing LSB under the bus because... LSB isn't mafia.
People, if he was mafia we would be having a lot more discussion rather then
Annul: "LSB is mafia"
LSB: "No I'm not"
Everyone else: "I don't know who is mafia, lets bandwagon LSB"
This is just bad town play, and for one, I am disappointed...
We are voting for:
1) An active player
2) A player that might be blue
3) A player that no one is really defending
4) A player that if he turns red, there are no other posters to look at if he flips
LSB is a terrible lynch... False logic. There is a VERY good reason that LSB is not getting defended if he is mafia. Look at ExMiMa. I accused Aidnai HARD day 1 and was pushing him relentlessly waiting for other mafia to show themselves by trying to defend him. KJ/Annul kept their cool until I got replaced then slowly diverted the lynch. It is WAY too risky to try to launch a defensive or diversion campaign of a mafia on day 1, especially if you fail. On December 29 2010 06:03 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
@Opz
24 hours of conversation can change an opinion. The reason I felt their tiff was forced was because I thought LSB would be too experienced to respond in such an aggressive manner. I may have been wrong. On December 29 2010 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 05:59 Node wrote:
I don't buy that LSB is being bussed. At this point in the game, with the votes in as many places as they are, it would be just as easy for annul or OpZ to be in the lead if that was what mafia wanted.
That said, I think RoL brings up a good case against Seraph, but I'd rather see annul / LSB resolved before we focus our attention elsewhere. As I explained a post above, I don't believe its feasible for the mafia to try to protect one of their own from such a volatile situation. It can only reveal themselves if they do it directly and it fails. Its why anyone focusing on lynching inactives or avoiding the conflict between annul/LSB should be heavily scrutinized. On December 29 2010 06:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
night 2 would not change from day 2 btw. No more actions can be done between those times, unless you mean AFTER night 2. At which point you COULD be a vigi, but if you really mean the start of night 2 you can't possibly be a vigilante, and you could also prove the same thing during the Day phase while we still have the option to lynch you!
The second problem is he proposes to lynch Seraph, but he doesn’t actually push for it. This is uncharacteristic of RoL, and he knows it himself: In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information.
This is my favourite contradiction of the day. He launches Seraph as a counter target, but does nothing for it. How is that consistent with his normal town play?
Come day 2, he also stated On December 30 2010 18:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright. So I am tired of this town being wishwashy so much. Tomorrow before I go to work I am going to decide on a lynch target. We are going to kill them, if I am wrong you guys can kill me if you so wish it. The thing is I will chose my target, I will push them relentlessly, and I will be right. I will most likely choose one of the three mentioned before, but it is going to be large analysis followed by a relentless attack until I get my way. I see three candidates going out right now with some shitty stupid reasoning. I will examine every person being suggested right now and decide which one is best. I welcome all who oppose me.
Well I waited for this. And it didn’t come.
There is a few other points about his posting that I noted, but is a little harder to put clearly. First of all he gets defensive and withdraws when people question him. There is several examples of this. Secondly he tries to act like he is way too good, “ruining scums day”, when fact is he hadn’t actually done anything.
Lastly, there is the whole “scumhunting with mad hatter bombs” failure. Instead of lying low, like a veteran who are most likely going to get hit, he actively scumhunts during the night by trying to place hatter bombs. This is so silly I won’t even go into it.
Now, even with all of this I was still doubting my conclusion of him being red. There was a slight possibility of him being blue. But when I knew we hit the nail with annul, since Mr.Zergling came out to soft defend, he posted this:
On January 02 2011 07:53 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
alright, after my hiatus from activity I will return. First off I know we only have 4 hours left for voting so I am going to say this. Everyone vote annul I will explain my reasoning in a post within the next hour but it is important that anyone on now starts voting for him. I will begin my analysis shortly.
This post was all I needed to confirm my suspicions. This is the situation at the time of his writing: we got a strong case on annul, and several of us are pushing for him. 2 mafia are already exposed trying to soft defend annul (Mr.Zergling and OpZ). Time to abandon ship.
Now RoL has been entirely out of the discussions since his morning post, declaring town was wishy washy and that he would pick a target to push relentlessly. This never happened. Again, the question for me is, is he blue or red.
The golden rule is, blues are scared, red are hesitant. (<3)
So is RoL’s sudden activity a sign of one or the other? We already provided all the shooting power to take down annul before RoL shows up, yet now he thinks is a good time to write an analysis? If he was blue all he needed to do was to agree with us, and help us indirectly by making sure people voted. Instead he decides to get attention by writing his own analysis. This all points away from scared. When annul starts attacking him openly while ignoring the rest of us, it smells like mafia trying to earn town credit!
The rest of the day is history. RoL and annul stage a fight, trying to make it appear like RoL did something for the lynch, when all he did was show up late, and realise the train had left the station.
|
On January 02 2011 12:22 Barundar wrote:We already proved Mr.Zergling is mafia. Here is the post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=179009¤tpage=44#870RoL is our second kill tomorrow (if a vigi doesn't take him down first). I will post a more thorough analysis of why I suspected him later, but the actions by him and annul during the last few hours should be pretty self explanatory. DT's there is a number of people I'm unsure of. Will post who tomorrow, but TheMango and Tree.Hugger is topping the list. weee 
I would like to add GGQ to the list.
Confirmed townies (these are the people that has been providing enough content behind the scene for me to trust them): Pandain (obviously), Mr.Wiggles, Jackal85, LunarDestiny and Node. However, if you aren't on my list for DT checks or mafia (RoL, Mr.Zergling and OpZ), I consider you town.
|
I'm willing to bet a bajillion ESPORTS dollars that RoL is mafia -- mostly for the reasons that Barundar posted. He's right in that the mini-fight with annul after annul's lynch was practically inevitable confirms it. His attempt to gain medic protection tonight as he's a prime vigi target makes me even more sure.
|
On January 02 2011 23:01 Node wrote:
I'm willing to bet a bajillion ESPORTS dollars that RoL is mafia -- mostly for the reasons that Barundar posted. He's right in that the mini-fight with annul after annul's lynch was practically inevitable confirms it. His attempt to gain medic protection tonight as he's a prime vigi target makes me even more sure.
My belief he is Mafia lies more with the fact that his analysis of annul came with less than an hour to vote with annul already holding the lynch lead and was "accidentally" posted in the voting thread.
It appears to be no more than a ploy to say "look I outed the GF"
|
Is there such a thing as 'too good'? RoL is getting a lot of unsavory attention.
I don't think Annul played properly and case in point he admits he's mafia before the day's news is published. Don't you guys want to see who RoL wants to suspect next before trying to kick him out? I guess the relevant people I'm talking to are medics, dt's and vigilantes for the night phase.
I mean, crazy ideas like RoL actually being mafia sounds so preposterous it might be true but it's definitely not 100%. I'm actually going to stand up for RoL because I can't comprehend him being mafia. Maybe it's my lack of imagination.
I'll suspect him if he starts using his credibility to make bad decisions like lynching no mafia for the rest of the game or bringing out more blue role claims.
|
On January 02 2011 23:57 Brocket wrote:
Is there such a thing as 'too good'? RoL is getting a lot of unsavory attention.
I don't think Annul played properly and case in point he admits he's mafia before the day's news is published. Don't you guys want to see who RoL wants to suspect next before trying to kick him out? I guess the relevant people I'm talking to are medics, dt's and vigilantes for the night phase.
I mean, crazy ideas like RoL actually being mafia sounds so preposterous it might be true but it's definitely not 100%. I'm actually going to stand up for RoL because I can't comprehend him being mafia. Maybe it's my lack of imagination.
I'll suspect him if he starts using his credibility to make bad decisions like lynching no mafia for the rest of the game or bringing out more blue role claims.
Well if RoL goes for me, he's mafia. I'll openly claim my role, if someone's willing to help me decide.
|
And where has insanious gone?
|
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
Lesson learned: Wall-of-text posts are the biggest mafia tell there is. (See: Annul, LMNOP)
Wish I had fought for your side of the story LSB.
|
+ Show Spoiler +On January 02 2011 19:10 Barundar wrote:Mini analysis of RoL This is more of a statement of why I suspected RoL in the first place than a proper analysis. For a real analysis see http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=179009¤tpage=44#870. I put a lot of time and effort into that. First let’s start out with some basic facts on RoL: First class player, awesome scumhunter and a veteran of TL mafia. For this reason he rarely sees day 2. Examples: HPmafia: Mafia learns RoL is a vet, and decides to spend two their night vigi hit on him as well as a normal hit night one. Pokemafia: RoL gets sniped within hours of substituting in to the game, before he even make his first post. ExMiMa: RoL instantly coins Aidnai, and has to be substituted out since he even picks up on DrH possibly admitting he is right. Both DrH and bumatlarge was veteran snipes. While this is admittedly an unfair shortcut, the fact that mafia leave him be on first night hit, and instead aim for a blue snipe on Deconduo, is no good for my thoughts on RoL’s alignment. Next let’s look at what he actually does on day 1. First post: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 04:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 18:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Meh I'll just start now, I have some time. We need to very carefully consider the framer role. It is often advised to detectives, by mafia, that a big town target should be checked to get "information". DT's should check the targets they think are most likely scum based on post behavior and that's pretty much all there is to it until later in the game when a lot of information actually can be gleaned from an alignment check. Framer Strategy: mafia railroads/advises DT to check a big town target with a lot of attention (for an example of this level of attention look at me in insane mafia) and then simply frame them. Pandain was effectively framed on day 1 of haunted and a DT checked him, because Pandain was an active poster but there was nothing scummy about any of his posts. It was a bad check. So beware of attempts to railroad you into checking certain targets especially if it happens in PM. I imagine myself, Pandain, LSB, and RoL will all be strong frame targets that is if they aren't going to be hit since they are likely to be checked. I'm not saying don't check veteran players, I'm saying check people you think are scum. Also DT's shouldn't claim if they find a red and definitely not in PM either. Build a case on that person. Read through their posts and seriously consider them. Read them as though they are mafia, what are they doing to hurt/mislead the town and does it make sense? They might be a miller (there are probably 2, that is the normal count) and they might also have been framed. When you checked someone and now they are mafia or are nearly certain you build a good case to get them lynched, you don't claim straight away because it's still possible the mafia won't hit you and if they do it become immediately apparent why you pushed so strong for a specific lynch which means the mafia have to do a lot of damage control especially if they tried to spread distrust/attack that DT. On December 27 2010 18:25 Ryuu314 wrote:On December 27 2010 17:57 ilovejonn wrote:On December 27 2010 17:46 Ryuu314 wrote:
Probably. I don't see how else the game could run otherwise.
7. Editing posts. Editing posts is not allowed for any reason. Anybody can see if you edited a post, and if you are caught, you will look suspicious. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be owned. I do have close connections to people who can check pre-edited material if you are truculent. Please do not edit; this is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything. Make sure you read all the rules. =) Oops x[ I remembered after I edited hahaha. I \was basically gonna say that Coag probably couldn't be mafia as the timing of his ban would probably prevent him from making hits? But then I looked up the time of his ban and it disproves my theory. The timing of his ban should have nothing to do with what role he may or may not be. Or rather what role I may or may not be. I'm gonna say this about vig's: don't shoot until night 3 or night 4. As the game progresses it gets easier and easier to find mafia and that's when efficient town KP use becomes super important. Don't blow your hit early, you'll more than likely miss. Your goal is to not get killed. As far as this Pandain bandwagon Idon't see why that is. This isn't a mafia thing it's just stupid but he did roleclaim village idiot to me in PM before the game started, not sure what that means. Probably nothing because he's just bad. If he's scum I'll catch him pretty quickly so I'm not worried about him at all. LunarDestiny's posts so far come off as the most scummy but that's just barely, no good target has presented itself yet to me for the lynch so I'll vote for myself. My work schedule is unpredictable and I don't want to get modkilled for it. As an addendum to the first part of this post. I don't think DrH hit it just right. Don't waste your time checking "big name" players. Since a GF is chosen you will get back a blue/green role on them pretty much no matter what. The way I play a detective role can be seen slightly in HP mafia. There were people I thought very likely to be scum, but there were two players I couldn't decide on, but was leaning towards mafia or jackass. OpZ and Orgolove. Night 1 I decided to Orgolove, but either check would of been adequate for my criteria. Usually a host RNG's the player list and makes mild adjustments for balance. The odds of a more recognized/good player getting into the mafia is increased and therefore they are likely to be the godfather. The only game where I would say the "veteran" player IMO wasn't GF was in Salem. They chose SouthRawrea over Radfield, but that could of been because of PM's and knowing where the check was going, or because radfield knew he was going to be inactive. So when you are a DT check someone who is playing aggressively/scummy and someone who you can't quite decide on their alignment. With a framer the odds are increased that you will get a bad check on a "veteran" player because they will either be godfather or framed. On that note though, the only real check we can use is a medic. If a medic protects someone and the day post is mafia KP-1 they can be almost 100% sure they protected someone good, especially if they are a "veteran" player. Anyway, I don't like making it seem like the DT role is so important which this seems like, I in fact view DT as a handicap that clouds a persons judgment. I would rather trust my behavioral analysis over DT checks any day of the week. I urge the utmost caution in using DT checks in this game, because I don't feel like having SouthRawrea 2.0 after I die and everyone becomes too stupid to realize who the leak was. Anyway, I got work in a little bit I will probably be back around 10ish. This is not the RoL I’ve seen in other games. He doesn’t need to give out good advice, he blatantly finds scum and hunt them relentless. I wrote this to DrH straight away, but my concerns actually got dismissed when he posted: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 04:54 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 01:15 LSB wrote:Firstly, pointing out that someone isn’t on topic isn’t analysis. It’s just plain distracting. Why don’t you include my two posts at the start of the game? Their spam too! On December 28 2010 01:00 annul wrote:On December 27 2010 11:11 LSB wrote:+ Show Spoiler +I wanted to wait for the day post before posting this but w/e All right, in many games there was an uneventful first day. Lets not make this one of those games. A few things to talk about: - Should we lynch an inactive day one? Assuming of course, there is no good alternative
- Plans for the roles
Inactives:A big problem in every mafia game is inactivity. I don't want another drag_ being able to squeak by with barely any posts. We should immediately show it is not okay to be inactive. Inactive players hurt the town as they waste lynches down the road as the town will need to try to separate the mafia from the inactives. We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one. This will force the assassins to discuss and not be able to turtle, increasing the chance they will slip up. The key is that we have to make sure the town knows it is not okay to just simply sit back and not do anything. This way, hopefully everyone will be active and we won't need to lynch an inactive. PlanFirstly. DO NOT CLAIM DO NOT CLAIM Good now that we got that out of the way, some other ideas. Generic Blue Activity planOne plan that would work is to use the blue roles to promote activity in the town. The DTs should check the inactive people and the lurkers, as it is incredibly difficult if not impossible to tell the difference between a bored townie and a lurking mafia. The Medics should protect active players, this way the mafia won't be able to take out the people who are contributing the most to town, so people won't be scared of trying to put forth their opinions. Framer Issue: Framers are much better put to use framing the important townies. So any attempt by the mafia for framing the inactives would be a waste. "should we lynch an inactive?" <-- probably knows mafia is most likely to at least pay attention to the thread enough to evade being labeled inactive. probably knows even if there are mafia inactives, he can choose any other town inactive and maintain the aura of "hey im helping out town" the rest of this is informative sure, but common sense? but the line "We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one." worries me. much better to hit an active scummy person and LSB should know this. Please read Pokemafia. "DO NOT CLAIM" is good advice, and i would like to say obvious, but given current history and shit it isnt =\ Thanks! On December 27 2010 11:25 LSB wrote:On December 27 2010 11:20 TheMango wrote:
Isn't that part of the game? assuming you're using it strategically, and not just for fun/out of boredom? Of course. There's a few cases where claiming is okay. 1) You are about to be lynched. Don't expect this to save you, but it would be nice to tell the town what happens 2) DT checks you. The DT then messages you and say that "I know your role is [insert green/blue role here]. This is mainly used when the DT finds a red, and also finds a green. The green becomes the "DT Mouth" and tells the Town what the DT found out. 3) The Medic successfully protects you. Assuming that it wasn't a hit from the mad hatter, if the medic protects someone, that person probably isn't mafia. 4) The town thinks of some super awesome plan. The issue is when blues jump the gun and start claiming before they confirmed someone. That's a great way to get our blues sniped. (See Salem Mafia. For a short summary, look at the article in the Pony Express) 1 and 2 are fine, 3 is not - you don't claim here, you just admit to being hit - preferably to town circle if you know where it is. 4 is a catch-all sure, but claiming day 1 to a "super awesome plan" is a horrible idea. that said though, LSB is providing pure information (some of which is sketchy) and no analysis. this early it is usually fine but consider it in the light of his earlier postings? it is like he wants to be active but isnt contributing valuable stuff. Help me then. What analysis could I do at that point? On December 27 2010 12:37 LSB wrote:On December 27 2010 12:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
If he is of the belief I'm spamming, I've just been posting somewhat short responses because there hasn't really been anything worth discussing up to this point.
What do you feel about lynching inactives / spammers? What do you feel that the blues should do? more "hit inactives" crap - this is bad. also maybe a blue fish? Read the thread please On December 27 2010 12:43 LSB wrote:
Can I write one then? On December 27 2010 12:43 LSB wrote:
That was at Incog/Flamewheel wants to write a day post. uh huh. keep this in mind with the "try to appear active but not" lens. Do you seriously think that I need to pretend to be active? On December 27 2010 13:26 LSB wrote:
I don't believe Pandain is mafia just because he fingered Mr. Wiggles.
Clearly at the time Mr. Wiggles did not contribute anything, and Pandain just voted to accent his point.
Indeed, as Ver put in his town guide, spamming can be detrimental to the town.
Now, I don't belive we should lynch Mr. Wiggles. It is far to early to tell anything about him, and also I'd rather lynch a lurker/inactive than a spammer. HEY something of content, cool. sort of defense of pandain and blatant defense of mr. wiggles. sadly the rationale of "inactives instead!" is scummy. Why don't you analyze my defense of Pandain, what does it say? in conclusion, LSB has been making pure nonposts and/or pure informative posts without analysis, with the two exceptions being his insistence on the "kill inactives" theme and his defenses of pandain and mr. wiggles. yet he has like 30 posts up while saying almost absolutely nothing.
my vote is on LSB now. Nice ‘analysis’ yourself btw. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrH26bR1EcI Back to pointing fingers like in other threads. Good ol’ RoL, and part of why I suspected LSB. But then: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 05:12 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I got my defense wrong! I have a strange idea. I think both annul and LSB might be mafia, this little tiff is exactly what annul/KJ did in ExMiMa although this is a little different. I know LSB is a better player than to attack his attacker AS mafia, its kind of an odd tell. My first thought was that he is probably town and just thought the analysis was scummy. But the analysis seems fine to me. The arguments almost feel a little forced too if you read through it. This is definitely something to keep in mind. Wooops back to being different. Suddenly changed opinion, and feel the need to publicly doubt himself? Day 1 in HPmafia he was confident lying to town that he actually found LSB to be green, while pushing for his own lynch on Aidnai behind the scene. RoL doesn’t need to publicly doubt himself. + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 05:26 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Alright so I finished catching up. I am really unsure about this whole LSB/Annul thing. But one thing I am sure about is that we CANT risk losing ANY blue role. We have no chance as winning as a town if we are throwing blues away day 1. The reason we aren't all green is because we REQUIRE blues to win. Judging by his initial claim LSB is a vigi but tried changing what he said because he didn't want to be so obvious with his claim but it doesn't matter. With a vigilante claim the mafia has a real incentive to kill him tonight to get rid of mafia KP, so we will know whether or not he is mafia in 2 days. There is NO reason to kill him now, since we can hold him off as a "sure thing" day 3 if he hasn't killed someone by then or is not dead. Now for RoL's badass analysis of the game, raping Red's day 1. SeraphShow nested quote +On December 27 2010 10:28 seRapH wrote:On December 27 2010 10:25 TheMango wrote:
where are my mafia team mates? lets start getting rid of some people. Hey guys this is an obvious slip-up, we should lynch TheMango. Town wouldn't want to "get rid" of people Also DrH because there's always a high chance of him being mafia. A nothing post, just the pregame jovial attitude usually shown by mafia. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 10:54 seRapH wrote:
I highly doubt there's any more than 1 framer in this game, but we should keep rolecheck candidates to 4 or 5 to minimize framer/miller influence. One of my favorite little tells that a lot of people give off is format speculation early on, he is one of the first to discuss it. Seraph and LD. Although a LOT of people have done it in this game because their was a new role I think we can view this as an additional circumstance to his "mafia" behavior since a lot of people exemplify this strait. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 13:31 seRapH wrote:
Since we're discussing lynching inactives (which at this point I mostly agree with unless something drastically better pops up) what are we using to define "inactive"? <5 posts? No meaningful posts? And how will we pick the inactive? Or should we all pick our own inactive to lynch? At this point he gets on the"lets lynch inactives" train and trying to figure out how to define inactives. First off I am going to say this right now. Fuck lynching inactives. It is such a stupid plan most of the time, lynching an inactive does two VERY anti town things. One it provides ZERO information because generally there is no vote split on inactives its usually a unanimous decision among the town, and on top of that since there is NO information to decide on who we are going to lynch because they are inactive the mafia have a huge influence over just which inactive guy we decide to kill. In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 13:36 seRapH wrote:
Inactives with zero posts or votes will be modkilled/replaced, so I guess what I meant was lurkers. How will we determine who are lurkers and how will we pick which to be irradiated? Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 13:40 seRapH wrote:On December 27 2010 13:37 LSB wrote:On December 27 2010 13:31 seRapH wrote:
Since we're discussing lynching inactives (which at this point I mostly agree with unless something drastically better pops up) what are we using to define "inactive"? <5 posts? No meaningful posts? And how will we pick the inactive? Or should we all pick our own inactive to lynch? + Show Spoiler +Disclaimer: I don't believe that we'll actually lynch an inactive. How about Zero meaningful posts? If all they have is spam and one vote with an explination of "I agree". That would be an inactive Or if we seriously have no idea what to do, we could lynch someone about to be modkilled, a way to essentially abstain Except they could be replaced, not necessarily modkilled. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 14:04 seRapH wrote:On December 27 2010 13:43 LSB wrote:On December 27 2010 13:40 seRapH wrote:On December 27 2010 13:37 LSB wrote:On December 27 2010 13:31 seRapH wrote:
Since we're discussing lynching inactives (which at this point I mostly agree with unless something drastically better pops up) what are we using to define "inactive"? <5 posts? No meaningful posts? And how will we pick the inactive? Or should we all pick our own inactive to lynch? + Show Spoiler +Disclaimer: I don't believe that we'll actually lynch an inactive. How about Zero meaningful posts? If all they have is spam and one vote with an explination of "I agree". That would be an inactive Or if we seriously have no idea what to do, we could lynch someone about to be modkilled, a way to essentially abstain Except they could be replaced, not necessarily modkilled. Hmm... I wonder if the mafia would try to modkill one of their own members in hopes of getting the person replaced by DoctorH Ace did that back in insane. Well, we forced the mafia to find their own repacements, and Ace choose L. Bah DrH is our only replacement right? I kinda wish there were a few more but whatev =\ We are going to see a recurring trend with Seraph, He doesn't really ever stop talking about inactives and mod kills at all. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 14:22 seRapH wrote:
I don't want luck to have any more to do with this than it has to. Early vig hits is much too risky, and has just as much if not more chance of hitting blue than it does of hitting red. Sure reducing KP is important, but keeping our number of blues is even moreso. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 14:53 seRapH wrote:On December 27 2010 14:35 LunarDestiny wrote:
Vigs can only hit on or AFTER night 2 Right, so this isn't something that's exactly urgent, is it? Day 1 lynching, however, is. Now one big thing to notice here, he advises against using KP and uses a TERRIBLE argument. This is a giant redflag to me. Why the hell would there be a better chance of hitting a blue then a red with a vigi hit? If we hold off our vigi hits there is a better chance the mafia will kill the vigi and we lose that KP too. That's roughly equivalent to telling mad hatters not to place bombs until night 3 because chances are they will just bomb a blue. It just chances us wasting our KP that we shouldn't be. On top of that if a vigi is doing ANY amount of behavioral analysis then they should be able to hit a god damn red by night 2 if they choose to, MAYBE hold it off until night 3. I generally would not recommend holding off your hit because it increases the chance of the town losing it. And on top of that Seraph says we have more important things to discuss then vigi's, like the day 1 lynch. Alright, I can agree with that but seriously what the fuck is there to talk about if you are lynching an inactive? Exactly, nothing. Its just basically RNG whichever person not posting the mafia approves of and unanimously killing them. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 15:00 seRapH wrote:
Well given that it's day 1 we're mostly waiting for people to check in. So people should be pitching in about their stances on the following issues:
Day 1 lynch- Inactives or suspects, and then who?
Role of PMs in this game
Any questions you guys may have should also be asked, an informed town is a good town ^_^ Alright let me get this strait. By your agenda we should be lynching inactives and searching for them but we need to wait for people to check in day 1...? Pretty much self explanatory. So far we have seen a good amount of anti town posting from Seraph on top of a bit of spammyness. Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 07:49 seRapH wrote:
It's pretty obvious that the Pandain wagon makes zero sense, so if you were mafia trying to establish credibility letting that go through would be stupid.
Annul my vote is going on you now because after reading through this thread I also think your analysis has been forced.
Also I'm keeping an eye on meapak. This is one of the posts I found really interesting. The pandain wagon did make no sense and Seraph says what I think he is trying to do. We can just label it wifom. At the same time he discredits Annul saying his argument is forced Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 08:55 seRapH wrote:
A forced argument is when you try to conjure up something out of nothing. Then explains what forced means! But seriously, how is Annul's analysis forced? I read it, it felt pretty natural to me. Annul remains dedicated and keeps going for his lynch of LSB and LSB OMGUS him back which is a really shitty way to play and incredibly anti town. The thing is I also believe that could just be a blue tell from LSB believing his role to be important for town victory. The last thing he does is FOS on Meapak but not saying ANYTHING about why. At least give some reason. Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 11:54 seRapH wrote:On December 28 2010 11:52 why wrote:
Hi everyone, just got off from work and caught up with the thread.
It seems to me that the annul vs. LSB debate is distracting from the issue at hand, hunting inactives. This is clearly the way to avoid an apathetic town.
The list that LunarDestiny suggested isn’t the best idea. If there are 10 people on the list, then no one will feel pressured to respond unless everyone else on the list is responding. They will just be lurking amongst the people on the list who aren’t responding on the list.
The best way to pressure inactives is to vote for them and actually intend to lynch them unless they contribute something useful.
As such, I'm going to pick someone that hasn't posted yet and put my vote on them. If they come to the thread and contribute then I'll move my vote off them. My pick is GeorgeClooney. I like that you're going to help us with this inactive thing, but we shouldn't be lynching someone who's about to get modkilled for not showing up. Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 17:17 seRapH wrote:On December 28 2010 16:42 Node wrote:I think between annul and LSB it's actually quite likely that one of them is scum. In Haunted Mafia, DocH and Pandain continually re-iterated the same arguments against each other, making huge walls of text that consumed many pages, and diverted town discussion from important things for like two whole game days. In the end, Pandain was scum. The difference there was that there were no PMs that game, so it was more important to be able to follow the thread well. All the same, I'm sensing echoes of that here, especially since annul seems to want to continue to force the issue. I'll also say that I find annul's posting to be much scummier than LSB's. The way he's posting reminds me a lot of the way he played Experimental Mini Mafia (which was an interesting experience, as I knew he was scum from the beginning ), whereas LSB's defense and contribution seems a lot more like his posting in Pokemafia, where he was green. For now, I'm putting my vote on annul. I'm also going to be analyzing LunarDestiny, as I think his posting has been... strange, to say the least. Gonna work on that now. Just clearing this up, but you do mean Insane Mafia, not Haunted, right? Seraph then stresses that we go back to lynching inactives while clearing up such a trivial issue between insane/haunted mafia. The running trend with Seraph is anti town play, just focusing on lynching an inactive and really not committing at ALL on the annul/LSB situation. This could be because he doesn't want to be associated with supporting a bad lynch of either of them, or not wanting to side at risk of being exposed when his ally gets lynched. With that being said, I strongly believe Seraph is mafia and we should lynch to kill him and hold off on the LSB/Annul situation because of how important blue roles are to a town victory. On top of that if/when LSB fails to prove his claim we get another free mafia kill that we can make a vigi use. LSB is claiming to be able to PROVE his alliance by night 2 and if he can't then well I am sure we can do something about that can't we? We just need to stay focused and get him killed then and not get distracted by other "better" targets. This is a great post, but there is 2 problems with it. The first problem is he advices town to hold off on killing LSB, because if LSB can’t prove he is blue, we can just lynch him later. This is solid and sound reasoning, and I was an idiot for not realising this myself. The problem is he leaves it like that. In all his posts the rest of the day, he doesn’t actually push the point: + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 05:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 05:20 Insanious wrote:
Wow... we get nothing as town from lynching LSB at all 0.
No info:
Anti LSB:
- Annul
Pro LSB:
- Me
Annul = town, easy to see
Me = town, because I know I'm town :/, hopefully my posts speak for me.
LSB turns up green:
- We have no suspects to look at
LSB turns red:
- We look at me... awesome?
want to know how I know LSB isn't red...
No one is trying to divert the lynch, if LSB was red, the mafia would be trying to throw up another name to be lynched instead of LSB. Is that happening? NOOOOO
Mafia are throwing LSB under the bus because... LSB isn't mafia.
People, if he was mafia we would be having a lot more discussion rather then
Annul: "LSB is mafia"
LSB: "No I'm not"
Everyone else: "I don't know who is mafia, lets bandwagon LSB"
This is just bad town play, and for one, I am disappointed...
We are voting for:
1) An active player
2) A player that might be blue
3) A player that no one is really defending
4) A player that if he turns red, there are no other posters to look at if he flips
LSB is a terrible lynch... False logic. There is a VERY good reason that LSB is not getting defended if he is mafia. Look at ExMiMa. I accused Aidnai HARD day 1 and was pushing him relentlessly waiting for other mafia to show themselves by trying to defend him. KJ/Annul kept their cool until I got replaced then slowly diverted the lynch. It is WAY too risky to try to launch a defensive or diversion campaign of a mafia on day 1, especially if you fail. On December 29 2010 06:03 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
@Opz
24 hours of conversation can change an opinion. The reason I felt their tiff was forced was because I thought LSB would be too experienced to respond in such an aggressive manner. I may have been wrong. On December 29 2010 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 05:59 Node wrote:
I don't buy that LSB is being bussed. At this point in the game, with the votes in as many places as they are, it would be just as easy for annul or OpZ to be in the lead if that was what mafia wanted.
That said, I think RoL brings up a good case against Seraph, but I'd rather see annul / LSB resolved before we focus our attention elsewhere. As I explained a post above, I don't believe its feasible for the mafia to try to protect one of their own from such a volatile situation. It can only reveal themselves if they do it directly and it fails. Its why anyone focusing on lynching inactives or avoiding the conflict between annul/LSB should be heavily scrutinized. On December 29 2010 06:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
night 2 would not change from day 2 btw. No more actions can be done between those times, unless you mean AFTER night 2. At which point you COULD be a vigi, but if you really mean the start of night 2 you can't possibly be a vigilante, and you could also prove the same thing during the Day phase while we still have the option to lynch you! The second problem is he proposes to lynch Seraph, but he doesn’t actually push for it. This is uncharacteristic of RoL, and he knows it himself: Show nested quote + In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information. This is my favourite contradiction of the day. He launches Seraph as a counter target, but does nothing for it. How is that consistent with his normal town play? Come day 2, he also stated Show nested quote +On December 30 2010 18:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright. So I am tired of this town being wishwashy so much. Tomorrow before I go to work I am going to decide on a lynch target. We are going to kill them, if I am wrong you guys can kill me if you so wish it. The thing is I will chose my target, I will push them relentlessly, and I will be right. I will most likely choose one of the three mentioned before, but it is going to be large analysis followed by a relentless attack until I get my way. I see three candidates going out right now with some shitty stupid reasoning. I will examine every person being suggested right now and decide which one is best. I welcome all who oppose me. Well I waited for this. And it didn’t come. There is a few other points about his posting that I noted, but is a little harder to put clearly. First of all he gets defensive and withdraws when people question him. There is several examples of this. Secondly he tries to act like he is way too good, “ruining scums day”, when fact is he hadn’t actually done anything. Lastly, there is the whole “scumhunting with mad hatter bombs” failure. Instead of lying low, like a veteran who are most likely going to get hit, he actively scumhunts during the night by trying to place hatter bombs. This is so silly I won’t even go into it. Now, even with all of this I was still doubting my conclusion of him being red. There was a slight possibility of him being blue. But when I knew we hit the nail with annul, since Mr.Zergling came out to soft defend, he posted this: Show nested quote +On January 02 2011 07:53 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
alright, after my hiatus from activity I will return. First off I know we only have 4 hours left for voting so I am going to say this. Everyone vote annul I will explain my reasoning in a post within the next hour but it is important that anyone on now starts voting for him. I will begin my analysis shortly. This post was all I needed to confirm my suspicions. This is the situation at the time of his writing: we got a strong case on annul, and several of us are pushing for him. 2 mafia are already exposed trying to soft defend annul (Mr.Zergling and OpZ). Time to abandon ship.Now RoL has been entirely out of the discussions since his morning post, declaring town was wishy washy and that he would pick a target to push relentlessly. This never happened. Again, the question for me is, is he blue or red. The golden rule is, blues are scared, red are hesitant. (<3) So is RoL’s sudden activity a sign of one or the other? We already provided all the shooting power to take down annul before RoL shows up, yet now he thinks is a good time to write an analysis? If he was blue all he needed to do was to agree with us, and help us indirectly by making sure people voted. Instead he decides to get attention by writing his own analysis. This all points away from scared. When annul starts attacking him openly while ignoring the rest of us, it smells like mafia trying to earn town credit! The rest of the day is history. RoL and annul stage a fight, trying to make it appear like RoL did something for the lynch, when all he did was show up late, and realise the train had left the station.
How am I defending annul?
|
On January 03 2011 01:40 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 02 2011 23:57 Brocket wrote:
Is there such a thing as 'too good'? RoL is getting a lot of unsavory attention.
I don't think Annul played properly and case in point he admits he's mafia before the day's news is published. Don't you guys want to see who RoL wants to suspect next before trying to kick him out? I guess the relevant people I'm talking to are medics, dt's and vigilantes for the night phase.
I mean, crazy ideas like RoL actually being mafia sounds so preposterous it might be true but it's definitely not 100%. I'm actually going to stand up for RoL because I can't comprehend him being mafia. Maybe it's my lack of imagination.
I'll suspect him if he starts using his credibility to make bad decisions like lynching no mafia for the rest of the game or bringing out more blue role claims. Well if RoL goes for me, he's mafia. I'll openly claim my role, if someone's willing to help me decide.
How does someone going for you make them mafia?
Barundar just added me to his suspects list, but I don't think he's mafia one little bit.
|
Vatican City State1650 Posts
Not sure how much it's worth, but before suspicions against Annul even surfaced, I got this PM from Mr. Zergling:
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From Mr.Zergling:
Would you care to respond to GGQ's Analysis of you?
I would think a real red wouldn't have cared enough about getting a non-red lynched so much that he would personally PM me to ask me to defend myself. I doubt he's red...
|
I can actually explain all that. Mr Barundar, I actually think you are probably town but I am going to spend my time when I get home from work going over your errors with that post. I don't actually consider your analysis a threat to me since I can't see anyone getting behind it. It does make for a nice fairytale however.
The one thing I will say now is look at how Annul posted towards his death. The guy is pissed, especially over activity. On top of that he was the godfather which made no sense at all. Judging by his anger and him being godfather, I would say chances are most of his mafia comrades are lurkers, which the exception of maybe 1-2 posting a little more. One of the most glaring errors in your argument is this. If I am mafia, and annul was mafia. Then why am I not the godfather if I am so good?
|
Oh and DT's tonight. All I want you to do is CHECK LURKERS. I believe most of mafia team (probably 2-3 of them) are in there and we can't analyze lurkers. It would be stupid for the mafia to try to frame one, and odds are even if they try you won't overlap.
As for the list of lurkers, here is what I have:
5. Brocket
7. Mr.Zergling
8. why
9. Jackal58
12. Node
15. ShoCkeyy
19. Orgolove
23. GeorgeClooney
24. d3_crescentia
27. Soulfire
30. ~OpZ~
Thats 11 people. Now since the Godfather is dead, any returns that are BLUE, or any returns you have gotten on people that are blue are 100%. In fact, anyone who has been returned town is guaranteed innocent right now.
|
On January 03 2011 03:43 GGQ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2011 01:40 ~OpZ~ wrote:On January 02 2011 23:57 Brocket wrote:
Is there such a thing as 'too good'? RoL is getting a lot of unsavory attention.
I don't think Annul played properly and case in point he admits he's mafia before the day's news is published. Don't you guys want to see who RoL wants to suspect next before trying to kick him out? I guess the relevant people I'm talking to are medics, dt's and vigilantes for the night phase.
I mean, crazy ideas like RoL actually being mafia sounds so preposterous it might be true but it's definitely not 100%. I'm actually going to stand up for RoL because I can't comprehend him being mafia. Maybe it's my lack of imagination.
I'll suspect him if he starts using his credibility to make bad decisions like lynching no mafia for the rest of the game or bringing out more blue role claims. Well if RoL goes for me, he's mafia. I'll openly claim my role, if someone's willing to help me decide. How does someone going for you make them mafia? Barundar just added me to his suspects list, but I don't think he's mafia one little bit.
Cuz I can prove I'm town. Who's a suspect you would like to see dead in 7 and a half hours?
|
Pandain wants me to shoot Shockeyy/Tree.hugger, not Mr.Zergling or Orgolove. I realized I voted for orgolove, but it was at Pandain's urging that I vote orgo....
|
On January 03 2011 03:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Oh and DT's tonight. All I want you to do is CHECK LURKERS. I believe most of mafia team (probably 2-3 of them) are in there and we can't analyze lurkers. It would be stupid for the mafia to try to frame one, and odds are even if they try you won't overlap.
As for the list of lurkers, here is what I have:
5. Brocket
7. Mr.Zergling
8. why
9. Jackal58
12. Node
15. ShoCkeyy
19. Orgolove
23. GeorgeClooney
24. d3_crescentia
27. Soulfire
30. ~OpZ~
Thats 11 people. Now since the Godfather is dead, any returns that are BLUE, or any returns you have gotten on people that are blue are 100%. In fact, anyone who has been returned town is guaranteed innocent right now.
I can confirm myself. I'm vigi.
|
On January 03 2011 04:27 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Pandain wants me to shoot Shockeyy/Tree.hugger, not Mr.Zergling or Orgolove. I realized I voted for orgolove, but it was at Pandain's urging that I vote orgo....
Please don't shoot me, it would be a waste of your vig hit as im probably going to be (wrongfully) lynched tommorow.
|
Meh, I'm not as active cause of holidays and work. Also when ever I'm active, I always end up dying first and since I'm a townie in this game, no point of trying to start analyzing in the beginning so I can just die the next day... So I've just lurked from my phone while I worked and posted when ever I needed too... But now that the night post will happy soon, we'll see what happens. I'll start being more active since I don't have to work crazy hours and stuff.
|
And I put money on it that Pandain is a mafia. So I'm going to keep sticking it to Pandain.
|
He has gotten out of two day lynches some how and I'm still confused as to how you guys are not noticing this at all.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
