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BC and RoL: Salem Mafia - Page 68

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
December 08 2010 01:37 GMT
#1341
On December 08 2010 10:05 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:02 SouthRawrea wrote:
OH LOLLL I VOTED AFTER THE GAME FINISHED


I demand a modkill. This game is under protest.

You were dt checked day one right?



We actually had a clutch Godfather pick. We initially picked Protactinium but two hours before day start we switched to me and Artanis got back a vet report from me day 2 (technically cuz it's after Night 1. Day 1 is the game start technically but the first DT check was used on me).
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
December 08 2010 01:38 GMT
#1342
On December 08 2010 10:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:21 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:12 Kavdragon wrote:
Yeah, i think that this game will be quoted as a textbook example of how town circles can go wrong. I think that the mafia got a little lucky with the GF being DT checked day one, but they still deserved the win. Regardless of how badly the town played (yeah, me too), I think that the mafia did a decent job. Well played.

GG.


This is a textbook example of how town circles can go wrong. So was TL Mafia XXX. So was TL Mafia XXVIII. The list goes on.

Regardless, town and mafia both played a mediocre game. And when both sides play a mediocre game, that usually means the mafia wins. DH was the only person reasonably able to do anything. Mafia succeeded at infiltrating the town circle and thought the game was over by then. As seen from Day 3, clearly, it was not. Mafia played a passive game and were weak in the thread. But maybe they didn't have to be since town was also weak there too.

and haunted mafia where annul raped the town through the town circle


On a further note: Theres only 3 games I remember where a town circle actually benefited the town. One was TL Mafia 4, where town circle destroyed the game Night 1 because mafia didn't read the rules. The second was Mafia V, where Town lynched red 7-8 times in a row (can't remember exactly, but it was almost a perfect game). However, in this game, town circle benefited from the fact that all the top tier players were town-sided. The third game was Mafia XX, where mafia played a passive game and information in the town circle was strictly kept between 3 players. The funny thing about that game, though, was that the mafia knew who the town circle was but couldn't do anything to stop them. That game also had too many strong blue roles. The moral of the story is: town circles only work well when information is kept strictly guarded AND the game has abnormal circumstances like described above. Otherwise, just don't try it.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-12-08 01:43:27
December 08 2010 01:41 GMT
#1343
On December 08 2010 10:26 Radfield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:12 Kavdragon wrote:
Yeah, i think that this game will be quoted as a textbook example of how town circles can go wrong. I think that the mafia got a little lucky with the GF being DT checked day one, but they still deserved the win. Regardless of how badly the town played (yeah, me too), I think that the mafia did a decent job. Well played.

GG.



Mafia got EXTREMELY lucky with that night one DT check, and with the fact that the other dt was modkilled on Day 1. Honestly, this game(along with the role-list) was handed to us on a silver platter. Dr H's scumhunting almost saved the day, but it was a steep slope to climb.


Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:18 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:16 CubEdIn wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:13 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
From what I skimmed, did Jcarlsoniv keep saying his second target was Eii? Because he never actually had a bomb on Eii. You guys didn't do anywhere near enough analysis later on and I don't know why after you lynch the first veteran you didn't move to the second "veteran". Something I learned a few games ago, if you know that one of two people are mafia kill them both.


Not necessarily true. 2 veterans in a game is perfectly reasonable and has been in quite a few setups in the past.


In that case, town should've let both live. Killing one based on the fact that there's just one vet, and then letting the other go is dumb.


No, YM wasn't lynched JUST because he was a vet. It was because he claimed to be a vet AND he wasn't contributing/playing his normal style. Yes, people should've looked at the lynch more closely, but this wasn't all too irrational.


Agreed. People were comparing myself and YM: Both semi-veteran players, known for contributing but are not. The big difference was that all of my posts looked like they were contributions, but were not. Where as YM was simply not contributing. This pegs me as mafia, and him as something else(either blue, or disinterested, or IRL busy, etc)

Also, had we not had the role list, we would have likely targeted YM in a blue-snipe attempt. His play was simply too uncharacteristic to go unnoticed.

EDIT: I will say my play this game was extremely lackluster. No doubt about that.


Yes, you were fairly obvious day 1 if you compare this play to your other play. However, what I'm interested in most here is the GF comparison. Everyone assumes that GF will be the mafia's strongest player. However, often mafia doesn't choose the obvious player as GF. This game, SR over Radfield. Mafia XXII, BM over me. Caller's mafia, a no-name player over Ver.

Will be back for more comments later.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Radfield
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada2720 Posts
December 08 2010 01:43 GMT
#1344
On December 08 2010 10:38 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:21 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:12 Kavdragon wrote:
Yeah, i think that this game will be quoted as a textbook example of how town circles can go wrong. I think that the mafia got a little lucky with the GF being DT checked day one, but they still deserved the win. Regardless of how badly the town played (yeah, me too), I think that the mafia did a decent job. Well played.

GG.


This is a textbook example of how town circles can go wrong. So was TL Mafia XXX. So was TL Mafia XXVIII. The list goes on.

Regardless, town and mafia both played a mediocre game. And when both sides play a mediocre game, that usually means the mafia wins. DH was the only person reasonably able to do anything. Mafia succeeded at infiltrating the town circle and thought the game was over by then. As seen from Day 3, clearly, it was not. Mafia played a passive game and were weak in the thread. But maybe they didn't have to be since town was also weak there too.

and haunted mafia where annul raped the town through the town circle


On a further note: Theres only 3 games I remember where a town circle actually benefited the town. One was TL Mafia 4, where town circle destroyed the game Night 1 because mafia didn't read the rules. The second was Mafia V, where Town lynched red 7-8 times in a row (can't remember exactly, but it was almost a perfect game). However, in this game, town circle benefited from the fact that all the top tier players were town-sided. The third game was Mafia XX, where mafia played a passive game and information in the town circle was strictly kept between 3 players. The funny thing about that game, though, was that the mafia knew who the town circle was but couldn't do anything to stop them. That game also had too many strong blue roles. The moral of the story is: town circles only work well when information is kept strictly guarded AND the game has abnormal circumstances like described above. Otherwise, just don't try it.



I think Mafia XXVII had good use of PMs between blue roles(perhaps not exactly 'town circles'). Again, the info in that game was held closely by the players who knew, eventually duping the mafia into hitting whom they thought was the medic, but was actually the watcher. A watcher who happened to be medic protected, and watching himself.

Any 'leaks' in that game were fairly carefully orchestrated.
Radfield
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada2720 Posts
December 08 2010 01:46 GMT
#1345
On December 08 2010 10:41 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:26 Radfield wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:12 Kavdragon wrote:
Yeah, i think that this game will be quoted as a textbook example of how town circles can go wrong. I think that the mafia got a little lucky with the GF being DT checked day one, but they still deserved the win. Regardless of how badly the town played (yeah, me too), I think that the mafia did a decent job. Well played.

GG.



Mafia got EXTREMELY lucky with that night one DT check, and with the fact that the other dt was modkilled on Day 1. Honestly, this game(along with the role-list) was handed to us on a silver platter. Dr H's scumhunting almost saved the day, but it was a steep slope to climb.


On December 08 2010 10:18 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:16 CubEdIn wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:13 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
From what I skimmed, did Jcarlsoniv keep saying his second target was Eii? Because he never actually had a bomb on Eii. You guys didn't do anywhere near enough analysis later on and I don't know why after you lynch the first veteran you didn't move to the second "veteran". Something I learned a few games ago, if you know that one of two people are mafia kill them both.


Not necessarily true. 2 veterans in a game is perfectly reasonable and has been in quite a few setups in the past.


In that case, town should've let both live. Killing one based on the fact that there's just one vet, and then letting the other go is dumb.


No, YM wasn't lynched JUST because he was a vet. It was because he claimed to be a vet AND he wasn't contributing/playing his normal style. Yes, people should've looked at the lynch more closely, but this wasn't all too irrational.


Agreed. People were comparing myself and YM: Both semi-veteran players, known for contributing but are not. The big difference was that all of my posts looked like they were contributions, but were not. Where as YM was simply not contributing. This pegs me as mafia, and him as something else(either blue, or disinterested, or IRL busy, etc)

Also, had we not had the role list, we would have likely targeted YM in a blue-snipe attempt. His play was simply too uncharacteristic to go unnoticed.

EDIT: I will say my play this game was extremely lackluster. No doubt about that.


Yes, you were fairly obvious day 1 if you compare this play to your other play. However, what I'm interested in most here is the GF comparison. Everyone assumes that GF will be the mafia's strongest player. However, often mafia doesn't choose the obvious player as GF. This game, SR over Radfield. Mafia XXII, BM over me. Caller's mafia, a no-name player over Ver.

Will be back for more comments later.


Agreed, though I'd like to hope that I wasn't completely obvious until Day 2....
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-12-08 02:25:55
December 08 2010 02:08 GMT
#1346
On December 04 2010 02:33 Radfield wrote:
Events in my life are conspiring to keep me from playing mafia. Dr H, lynch me if you must, I don't deny my play has been poor. Sorry team

Also, lynching JS is a no-brainer at this point.


...
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
December 08 2010 02:15 GMT
#1347
Lol WUT? I never knew that SR claimed Vet. I think that i'd have been much more suspicious of his play for the same reasons that I was suspicious of YM's play...
Whatever, hindsight is 20/20. I think that I want to play a no-pm normal game after this.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
aidnai
Profile Joined January 2010
United States1159 Posts
December 08 2010 02:17 GMT
#1348
On November 28 2010 21:33 Radfield wrote:
...

Show nested quote +
On November 28 2010 17:54 aidnai wrote:
Is the priority right now really to find confirmed townies to strengthen the town circle? or is it to find confirmed scum?
.


All new players take note, no wiser words have been spoken. This game is about focusing on who is MAFIA, not who is town. How many times have you used the ALL function to CTRL-F through the thread for a certain players posts? I have done it dozens of times so far, and will continue to do it dozens more before i die(hopefully more than ~12hrs from now). I suggest everyone else do the same.

...


>_< This tactic won me over so quick I'm embarrased. I won't trust people who flatter me anymore I guess. Although IT WAS GOOD ADVICE AND DAMN YOU TOWN FOR NOT LISTENING ;(

May I ask why I got shivved so quick? reasoning? Was it an attempted blue snipe, or just unlikely medic target, or wifom-generator, or what?

Dr.H had a good analysis on annul, and a good analysis on radfield. I'm not sure what went wrong with youngminii... I was shocked when he flipped blue. Looking forward to seeing another analysis on his play sometime.
Radfield
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada2720 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-12-08 02:33:09
December 08 2010 02:31 GMT
#1349
On December 08 2010 11:17 aidnai wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 28 2010 21:33 Radfield wrote:
...

On November 28 2010 17:54 aidnai wrote:
Is the priority right now really to find confirmed townies to strengthen the town circle? or is it to find confirmed scum?
.


All new players take note, no wiser words have been spoken. This game is about focusing on who is MAFIA, not who is town. How many times have you used the ALL function to CTRL-F through the thread for a certain players posts? I have done it dozens of times so far, and will continue to do it dozens more before i die(hopefully more than ~12hrs from now). I suggest everyone else do the same.

...


>_< This tactic won me over so quick I'm embarrased. I won't trust people who flatter me anymore I guess. Although IT WAS GOOD ADVICE AND DAMN YOU TOWN FOR NOT LISTENING ;(

May I ask why I got shivved so quick? reasoning? Was it an attempted blue snipe, or just unlikely medic target, or wifom-generator, or what?

Dr.H had a good analysis on annul, and a good analysis on radfield. I'm not sure what went wrong with youngminii... I was shocked when he flipped blue. Looking forward to seeing another analysis on his play sometime.



You got sniped for PMing me this:

Hi Radfield,
Based on your behavior in the thread, I feel like you are town aligned. I therefore want to bounce a few ideas off of you.

Tomorrow, we get to lynch again. Right now, my list of scum targets is something like Node, SouthRawrea, Pandain, DarthThienAn. What do you think? Personally, I think we have the strongest case on either Node or DTA, i'd like to pressure one of those two. If you agree, it would probably be useful to focus town that direction.

Also, I've been talking to Dr.H. Everything he has done in thread has seemed very pro-town, except for the focus on town circle which honestly can go very good or very bad for town. Do you think it's plausible that he could be godfather? In the scenario I'm imagining, both Dr.H and the 'medic' who claimed to him (if there is one) are mafia. Dr.H now has an excuse to be the center of attention and the center of the town circle (because of the medic claim). He also has an excuse for not dying (similar to GF claiming vet, but instead of bulletproof he has a medic).

All of my behavioral analysis says Dr.H is town, but the scenario I'm imagining is keeping me from trusting him 100%. I also wish he wasn't so focussed on town circle/confirming townies/PM's/roleclaiming. Do you have any thoughts?


I thought you were blue for sure. Major blue sniping fail by me on day one
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
December 08 2010 02:44 GMT
#1350
On December 08 2010 10:19 Radfield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:07 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:03 CubEdIn wrote:
Well at least I was right about our "confirmed green".

And I also knew Radfield was red, when he started panicking at the end.

But yeah, I would've guessed Node/Glasse to be #3.

GG.

I actually think that was used to make sure you guys would follow with the plan. Imagine if there was no resistance, especially from a pretty much known mafia player. You guys might realize that you didn't have one of the bombs on a red and were thus losing the game. So him fighting against the lynch made more sense and confirmed your guys suspicion.

At least that is what I assumed radfield was doing, since lynching jcarl won them the game. you guys should of just lynched Radfield or another mafia suspect. A more conservative route was definitely better in this situation the inner circle was completely compromised and the mafia knew everything that was happening since day one. AKA they knew where all the bombs were.



Lol, classy Cubedin... the ol "I KNEW you were mafia" after the fact

Yes, the reason I fought so hard at the end was to link myself and Eiii irrevocably. If people all of a sudden decided to lynch me at the end, then it would be obvious that Eiii was also mafia, since I would never fight hard against the Mad Hatter lynch unless we were both mafia(since if Eiii was town then I win).
+ Show Spoiler +
At the very end I was pushing Eiii just for the fun of it


And yes, I knew the other bomb was on KtheZ, since South told us that.

GG everyone


Oh come on don't be mean to me.
The whole town was pretty much sure you were Mafia, and that's all I stated. It just got more obvious when you were causing a fuss, but as you said, it didn't matter anyway.

And I know that ym didn't die just because of that, but I've seen this happen a lot of times:
Town bases self on one idea -> something bad happens, people forget about the idea -> time is wasted and game is lost, when following the idea would've been good.

I'm just saying, if we committed to something, we should follow through. Just like it was with the Pandain Lynch in Insane.

And I never claimed that I'm a good player, but I did comment about our "confirmed green", and I always voted for killing you when you were in the spotlight. So you can't say I'm being whiny. I would've never guessed who ELSE was mafia anyway.
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
Radfield
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada2720 Posts
December 08 2010 02:49 GMT
#1351
On December 08 2010 11:44 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:19 Radfield wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:07 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:03 CubEdIn wrote:
Well at least I was right about our "confirmed green".

And I also knew Radfield was red, when he started panicking at the end.

But yeah, I would've guessed Node/Glasse to be #3.

GG.

I actually think that was used to make sure you guys would follow with the plan. Imagine if there was no resistance, especially from a pretty much known mafia player. You guys might realize that you didn't have one of the bombs on a red and were thus losing the game. So him fighting against the lynch made more sense and confirmed your guys suspicion.

At least that is what I assumed radfield was doing, since lynching jcarl won them the game. you guys should of just lynched Radfield or another mafia suspect. A more conservative route was definitely better in this situation the inner circle was completely compromised and the mafia knew everything that was happening since day one. AKA they knew where all the bombs were.



Lol, classy Cubedin... the ol "I KNEW you were mafia" after the fact

Yes, the reason I fought so hard at the end was to link myself and Eiii irrevocably. If people all of a sudden decided to lynch me at the end, then it would be obvious that Eiii was also mafia, since I would never fight hard against the Mad Hatter lynch unless we were both mafia(since if Eiii was town then I win).
+ Show Spoiler +
At the very end I was pushing Eiii just for the fun of it


And yes, I knew the other bomb was on KtheZ, since South told us that.

GG everyone


Oh come on don't be mean to me.
The whole town was pretty much sure you were Mafia, and that's all I stated. It just got more obvious when you were causing a fuss, but as you said, it didn't matter anyway.

And I know that ym didn't die just because of that, but I've seen this happen a lot of times:
Town bases self on one idea -> something bad happens, people forget about the idea -> time is wasted and game is lost, when following the idea would've been good.

I'm just saying, if we committed to something, we should follow through. Just like it was with the Pandain Lynch in Insane.

And I never claimed that I'm a good player, but I did comment about our "confirmed green", and I always voted for killing you when you were in the spotlight. So you can't say I'm being whiny. I would've never guessed who ELSE was mafia anyway.


Apologies, I didn't mean to come off as being mean. I just meant to be cheeky

Fact is, you probably were pretty sure I was mafia, and you were right
ghrur
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3786 Posts
December 08 2010 03:12 GMT
#1352
SR basically took this game apart, lol. But when Dr. H posted the list of his scum suspects, I was like, NOOOOOOOOOOOO, CMON TEAM, PULL THROUGH. And they did. ^_^ Congrats Mafia. :p
darkness overpowering
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
December 08 2010 03:30 GMT
#1353
On December 08 2010 10:13 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
From what I skimmed, did Jcarlsoniv keep saying his second target was Eii? Because he never actually had a bomb on Eii. You guys didn't do anywhere near enough analysis later on and I don't know why after you lynch the first veteran you didn't move to the second "veteran". Something I learned a few games ago, if you know that one of two people are mafia kill them both.


Not necessarily true. 2 veterans in a game is perfectly reasonable and has been in quite a few setups in the past.


2 meds, 2 dts, 2 hatters, chances are very very very low two vets -_-
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
December 08 2010 03:45 GMT
#1354
In regards to this game in a very simple go before I write out a more detailed post.

Town Circle day 1 was a terrrrrrrible idea. In that one day where everyone rallied behind dr.H the game was done. I say this on this fact. DT's assumed that dr.H was legit. Medics assumed he was legit. Etc....

Had he been red (in this case miller so dt would have seen him as red), the town literally would have handed the game away day 1. Instead dr H trusted a dt checked person day 1 and gave him a ton of information before ever verifying that a) south was not a gf or b) artanis / south did a mafia trick.

There was way to much blind trust by the town on everyone. In pm land people shared info that should never have been shared. Next to no one behavioural analyzed and instead based conversations off who did and didn't pm their role to dr H. That in itself should not have been the major factor in who lives and dies. In this setup, I would never had claimed to dr H, or anyone for that matter unless the evidence was overwhelmingly strong in their favour. I say this purely because everyone was talking way to much in pm's, sharing way to much and not testing out the waters.

I really hope this game just showed how much blind trust can royally come back to bite people in the ass, or that building one circle is not the be all and end all.


I will share a basic rundown of how I would have done this.

I pm any random 2-3 players on the list. I begin to talk to them.
Now, I form a "circle" with said players. However, all we do is talk general strategy, behavioural analysis sharing or the like. No sharing of roles, no speculating of roles. Now say your a dt or you have somehow had a dt check you and claim to you., you can test your circle very very easily. Say someone got ahold of you, mention x player was checked (lie through your teeth if they are green/blue) and if said fake player dies chances are someone in your circle is red. Bam now you analyze behaviour and pin one down. (or systematically have it checked).

A town circle is great, but people should operate in small cells, or stay out of pm land altogether. Share ideas, analysis, whatever, just don't share roles or talk about them. Give as little information on "hit targets" as possible. You may be able to keep you trap shut, but chances are someone else won't.

Control information, actively analyze, and if something someone says seems off to you say it. The more arguments the better. The more active the thread gets the more chances you have to find reds.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
December 08 2010 04:45 GMT
#1355
It was fun .
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
December 08 2010 05:07 GMT
#1356
Yeah I totally agree with that BC.

I think that half the purpose of killing blues is simply to demoralize the town. This game was a clear example of how, even though they had the incredible boon of the traitor going afk and getting lynched, and then deconduo superbly snagging a mafia night 1, the town thought it was all over simply because they started losing blues. The prevailing argument in day 3 was about how 'if dr h is mafia we already lost so we have to trust him' was completely illogical, but with the panic that produced so many thoughts like that, the town had trouble concentrating effectively on the important things.

For bootcamp writeup coordination, I'm doing overall mafia strategical decisions and blue analysis. Won't be anything gigantic but hopefully will touch on the key points.
Liquipedia
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-12-08 05:28:45
December 08 2010 05:26 GMT
#1357
On December 08 2010 10:41 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:26 Radfield wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:12 Kavdragon wrote:
Yeah, i think that this game will be quoted as a textbook example of how town circles can go wrong. I think that the mafia got a little lucky with the GF being DT checked day one, but they still deserved the win. Regardless of how badly the town played (yeah, me too), I think that the mafia did a decent job. Well played.

GG.



Mafia got EXTREMELY lucky with that night one DT check, and with the fact that the other dt was modkilled on Day 1. Honestly, this game(along with the role-list) was handed to us on a silver platter. Dr H's scumhunting almost saved the day, but it was a steep slope to climb.


On December 08 2010 10:18 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:16 CubEdIn wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:13 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
From what I skimmed, did Jcarlsoniv keep saying his second target was Eii? Because he never actually had a bomb on Eii. You guys didn't do anywhere near enough analysis later on and I don't know why after you lynch the first veteran you didn't move to the second "veteran". Something I learned a few games ago, if you know that one of two people are mafia kill them both.


Not necessarily true. 2 veterans in a game is perfectly reasonable and has been in quite a few setups in the past.


In that case, town should've let both live. Killing one based on the fact that there's just one vet, and then letting the other go is dumb.


No, YM wasn't lynched JUST because he was a vet. It was because he claimed to be a vet AND he wasn't contributing/playing his normal style. Yes, people should've looked at the lynch more closely, but this wasn't all too irrational.


Agreed. People were comparing myself and YM: Both semi-veteran players, known for contributing but are not. The big difference was that all of my posts looked like they were contributions, but were not. Where as YM was simply not contributing. This pegs me as mafia, and him as something else(either blue, or disinterested, or IRL busy, etc)

Also, had we not had the role list, we would have likely targeted YM in a blue-snipe attempt. His play was simply too uncharacteristic to go unnoticed.

EDIT: I will say my play this game was extremely lackluster. No doubt about that.


Yes, you were fairly obvious day 1 if you compare this play to your other play. However, what I'm interested in most here is the GF comparison. Everyone assumes that GF will be the mafia's strongest player. However, often mafia doesn't choose the obvious player as GF. This game, SR over Radfield. Mafia XXII, BM over me. Caller's mafia, a no-name player over Ver.

Will be back for more comments later.

That "no name player" was incognito. But that isn't really a fair game to use because godfather was an assigned role until after mafia VIII. Speaking of which, Mafia VIII Showtime! over MrBabyHands fooled the DTs too.
Uff Da
DarthThienAn
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2734 Posts
December 08 2010 06:00 GMT
#1358
On December 08 2010 10:46 Radfield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:41 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:26 Radfield wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:12 Kavdragon wrote:
Yeah, i think that this game will be quoted as a textbook example of how town circles can go wrong. I think that the mafia got a little lucky with the GF being DT checked day one, but they still deserved the win. Regardless of how badly the town played (yeah, me too), I think that the mafia did a decent job. Well played.

GG.



Mafia got EXTREMELY lucky with that night one DT check, and with the fact that the other dt was modkilled on Day 1. Honestly, this game(along with the role-list) was handed to us on a silver platter. Dr H's scumhunting almost saved the day, but it was a steep slope to climb.


On December 08 2010 10:18 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:16 CubEdIn wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:13 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
From what I skimmed, did Jcarlsoniv keep saying his second target was Eii? Because he never actually had a bomb on Eii. You guys didn't do anywhere near enough analysis later on and I don't know why after you lynch the first veteran you didn't move to the second "veteran". Something I learned a few games ago, if you know that one of two people are mafia kill them both.


Not necessarily true. 2 veterans in a game is perfectly reasonable and has been in quite a few setups in the past.


In that case, town should've let both live. Killing one based on the fact that there's just one vet, and then letting the other go is dumb.


No, YM wasn't lynched JUST because he was a vet. It was because he claimed to be a vet AND he wasn't contributing/playing his normal style. Yes, people should've looked at the lynch more closely, but this wasn't all too irrational.


Agreed. People were comparing myself and YM: Both semi-veteran players, known for contributing but are not. The big difference was that all of my posts looked like they were contributions, but were not. Where as YM was simply not contributing. This pegs me as mafia, and him as something else(either blue, or disinterested, or IRL busy, etc)

Also, had we not had the role list, we would have likely targeted YM in a blue-snipe attempt. His play was simply too uncharacteristic to go unnoticed.

EDIT: I will say my play this game was extremely lackluster. No doubt about that.


Yes, you were fairly obvious day 1 if you compare this play to your other play. However, what I'm interested in most here is the GF comparison. Everyone assumes that GF will be the mafia's strongest player. However, often mafia doesn't choose the obvious player as GF. This game, SR over Radfield. Mafia XXII, BM over me. Caller's mafia, a no-name player over Ver.

Will be back for more comments later.


Agreed, though I'd like to hope that I wasn't completely obvious until Day 2....

I thought you were pretty obvious. I was surprised you weren't dead the day after I died ><.

Especially because you didn't die night 1. Like so obvious! lol.
www.cstarleague.com | Love is like playing the piano. First you must learn to play by the rules, then you must forget the rules and play from your heart.
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-12-08 06:11:39
December 08 2010 06:10 GMT
#1359
And I know that ym didn't die just because of that, but I've seen this happen a lot of times:
Town bases self on one idea -> something bad happens, people forget about the idea -> time is wasted and game is lost, when following the idea would've been good.

I'm just saying, if we committed to something, we should follow through. Just like it was with the Pandain Lynch in Insane.


Again, not necessarily correct. I've seen tons of examples where town bases itself on one (faulty) idea, something bad happens, and people pursue an idea that will yield nothing. Example: Town circles. When town circles start to die off quickly, town usually suspects a leak. Sometimes, there is one. But other times, there isn't. Assuming that there is a leak is always very dangerous because it can lead you on a witch hunt that leads you nowhere while distracting you from scumhunting. The fact is that town circles play like bad mafia members. They think they're hiding well and being discrete, while in fact, they are not. Case and point: TL Mafia XXVIII, where mafia sniped off the entire blue circle in one night. How did they do this? The town circle was a controversial issue, and all the circle members started vouching for each other. It is one of the basic town circle mistakes that allows mafia to pick off everyone in the circle at ease. For example, in this game, mafia could've easily sniped Coag day 1, leaving a bunch of suspicion on DH when in fact you can't prove a leak.

Being committed to a flawed plan is a terrible mistake. Town needs to think for themselves and hunt scum, not dawdle around lynching people just on hunches.

On December 08 2010 12:30 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:13 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
From what I skimmed, did Jcarlsoniv keep saying his second target was Eii? Because he never actually had a bomb on Eii. You guys didn't do anywhere near enough analysis later on and I don't know why after you lynch the first veteran you didn't move to the second "veteran". Something I learned a few games ago, if you know that one of two people are mafia kill them both.


Not necessarily true. 2 veterans in a game is perfectly reasonable and has been in quite a few setups in the past.


2 meds, 2 dts, 2 hatters, chances are very very very low two vets -_-


We've had 8 blue roles in one game before. Notice how this game had 0 Double Lynches. Its also only the second time we had traitor. Given that there was a traitor in game, I can totally see 8 blue roles as being reasonable. Plus, town didn't know if hatter was real or not until they lynched him

On December 08 2010 12:45 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
In regards to this game in a very simple go before I write out a more detailed post.

Town Circle day 1 was a terrrrrrrible idea. In that one day where everyone rallied behind dr.H the game was done. I say this on this fact. DT's assumed that dr.H was legit. Medics assumed he was legit. Etc....

Had he been red (in this case miller so dt would have seen him as red), the town literally would have handed the game away day 1. Instead dr H trusted a dt checked person day 1 and gave him a ton of information before ever verifying that a) south was not a gf or b) artanis / south did a mafia trick.

There was way to much blind trust by the town on everyone. In pm land people shared info that should never have been shared. Next to no one behavioural analyzed and instead based conversations off who did and didn't pm their role to dr H. That in itself should not have been the major factor in who lives and dies. In this setup, I would never had claimed to dr H, or anyone for that matter unless the evidence was overwhelmingly strong in their favour. I say this purely because everyone was talking way to much in pm's, sharing way to much and not testing out the waters.

I really hope this game just showed how much blind trust can royally come back to bite people in the ass, or that building one circle is not the be all and end all.


I will share a basic rundown of how I would have done this.

I pm any random 2-3 players on the list. I begin to talk to them.
Now, I form a "circle" with said players. However, all we do is talk general strategy, behavioural analysis sharing or the like. No sharing of roles, no speculating of roles. Now say your a dt or you have somehow had a dt check you and claim to you., you can test your circle very very easily. Say someone got ahold of you, mention x player was checked (lie through your teeth if they are green/blue) and if said fake player dies chances are someone in your circle is red. Bam now you analyze behaviour and pin one down. (or systematically have it checked).

A town circle is great, but people should operate in small cells, or stay out of pm land altogether. Share ideas, analysis, whatever, just don't share roles or talk about them. Give as little information on "hit targets" as possible. You may be able to keep you trap shut, but chances are someone else won't.

Control information, actively analyze, and if something someone says seems off to you say it. The more arguments the better. The more active the thread gets the more chances you have to find reds.


For anyone who has dreams of forming a town circle, this is good advice. PMs and "town circles" should be localized entities, not centrally controlled dictatorships. As Ver said in his XXX guide/analysis, the goal is to find mafia, not worship confirmed innocents. Even if townies have DTs, medics, and hatters at their command, they are still prone to making mistakes. And not small mistakes either. Circles are useful for controlling information and bouncing ideas. They're much less useful for organizing blue actions.

I think that half the purpose of killing blues is simply to demoralize the town. This game was a clear example of how, even though they had the incredible boon of the traitor going afk and getting lynched, and then deconduo superbly snagging a mafia night 1, the town thought it was all over simply because they started losing blues. The prevailing argument in day 3 was about how 'if dr h is mafia we already lost so we have to trust him' was completely illogical, but with the panic that produced so many thoughts like that, the town had trouble concentrating effectively on the important things.


Although this is true, town would've been way more screwed if mafia just popped DH on day 1 or 2. Nobody was doing any type of behavior analysis except DH. Coag was an obvious member of the early town "circle" when he popped up and blindly defended DH in the early game. 1 DT was already dead from modkills. While killing blues did save mafia the headache of correct DT checks and the like, DH should've died. Since DT checked the GF anyway, mafia might have been able to get ahold of the blue roles AND kill the circle starter (DH). Mafia knew DH was legit, and knew the town was blindly following him. They shouldn't have let DH organize the town even if they could question DH's alignment because that would've just put them out in the open given how the town were sheeping him. The circumstances just didn't justify leaving DH alone. Plus, the mafia team didn't have any strong active imposing in-thread leaders. So it made no sense to leave DH alive while poking him from the shadows. If you want to keep a big name controversial player alive, you NEED to have at least some townies questioning him, and you NEED to have a mafia player who has the game-influence necessary to challenge him and dominate the discussion. Softly poking from the shadows doesn't do any good. Although not fatal, leaving DH alive gave the mafia more troubles than they could have gotten. If DH died night 1 or even night 2, I'd be willing to bet that neither Radfield nor Jimbo would've been caught. And blues still might have died.

On December 08 2010 14:26 Qatol wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2010 10:41 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:26 Radfield wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:12 Kavdragon wrote:
Yeah, i think that this game will be quoted as a textbook example of how town circles can go wrong. I think that the mafia got a little lucky with the GF being DT checked day one, but they still deserved the win. Regardless of how badly the town played (yeah, me too), I think that the mafia did a decent job. Well played.

GG.



Mafia got EXTREMELY lucky with that night one DT check, and with the fact that the other dt was modkilled on Day 1. Honestly, this game(along with the role-list) was handed to us on a silver platter. Dr H's scumhunting almost saved the day, but it was a steep slope to climb.


On December 08 2010 10:18 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:16 CubEdIn wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:13 Incognito wrote:
On December 08 2010 10:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
From what I skimmed, did Jcarlsoniv keep saying his second target was Eii? Because he never actually had a bomb on Eii. You guys didn't do anywhere near enough analysis later on and I don't know why after you lynch the first veteran you didn't move to the second "veteran". Something I learned a few games ago, if you know that one of two people are mafia kill them both.


Not necessarily true. 2 veterans in a game is perfectly reasonable and has been in quite a few setups in the past.


In that case, town should've let both live. Killing one based on the fact that there's just one vet, and then letting the other go is dumb.


No, YM wasn't lynched JUST because he was a vet. It was because he claimed to be a vet AND he wasn't contributing/playing his normal style. Yes, people should've looked at the lynch more closely, but this wasn't all too irrational.


Agreed. People were comparing myself and YM: Both semi-veteran players, known for contributing but are not. The big difference was that all of my posts looked like they were contributions, but were not. Where as YM was simply not contributing. This pegs me as mafia, and him as something else(either blue, or disinterested, or IRL busy, etc)

Also, had we not had the role list, we would have likely targeted YM in a blue-snipe attempt. His play was simply too uncharacteristic to go unnoticed.

EDIT: I will say my play this game was extremely lackluster. No doubt about that.


Yes, you were fairly obvious day 1 if you compare this play to your other play. However, what I'm interested in most here is the GF comparison. Everyone assumes that GF will be the mafia's strongest player. However, often mafia doesn't choose the obvious player as GF. This game, SR over Radfield. Mafia XXII, BM over me. Caller's mafia, a no-name player over Ver.

Will be back for more comments later.

That "no name player" was incognito. But that isn't really a fair game to use because godfather was an assigned role until after mafia VIII. Speaking of which, Mafia VIII Showtime! over MrBabyHands fooled the DTs too.


That "DT" was incognito.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Node
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2159 Posts
December 08 2010 11:55 GMT
#1360
I PMd this to DrH sometime during day 1 discussion. Bold is for emphasis.

I'm fine with sharing thoughts via PM, I'm just very worried about a town that comes to rely on a circle of "confirmed" people for direction instead of good scumhunting and discussion within the thread itself.

I realize that that could be construed as a scummy sentiment -- of course mafia doesn't want people conspiring against them in private -- but I think it's too easy for town to put themselves in a position where they're controlled by the circle instead of the other way around.

I'm all for getting discussion going in PM land, though.


I really wish I had pushed that more in-thread at the beginning, but it just grew too far too fast, and I made a few too many poor choices to be considered trustworthy. Hindsight, 20/20, etc.

I just felt incredibly discouraged after the fiasco that was Kenpachi, and even more so after youngminii turned up veteran. I thought I had actually posted a decent analysis for once, even though at that point it didn't make much of a difference. *sigh* Just gotta keep at it.
whole lies with a half smile
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