Insane Mafia - Page 23

On November 02 2010 10:31 Nemesis wrote:
Well I'm back and I've been reading a lot.

Yum Yum

Time to give my input on things.
1. LAL is a BAAAAAAAAAADDDDDDDDDDDDDDD policy. What is important is not that they lied or what they lied about, but their reasons for lying aka their motive.
which you have no information about Although I do find Aeres martyring himself as fishy.
2. If you are going to go with LAL policy, why aren't you gunning for DrH too, YM and Ace?
because i never lied, that was made incredibly obvious in several posts

3. DoctorH, I have FoS on, but I don't really want to lynch him at this point as he is mayor, and can really help in the lategame if he is indeed town. Besides, he is always in the spotlight, more chance for him to slipup like he's been slowly doing all day.
slipping up how?
4. For the youngminii bandwagon, I also have FoS on youngminii but I wouldn't really lynch him yet, and I find it weird how they are ignoring that Ace was also tried to get people to bandwagon for Aeres, but his name is not being mentioned when he's essentially doing the same thing that they are lynching youngminii for.
Mafia too scared to go after Ace directly because of his experience. youngminii is the easy lynch choice because his posting is more erratic
5. It seems that youngminii and doctorH are defending each other, another thing I find suspicious
but not suspicious for infinitestory to defend aeres, or for coag to defend pandain. RIGHT OK. sure is selective reading here.
6. I don't agree with fishing for inactives is a bad thing. With all these back and forth going on between you guys, the inactives are left out of the spotlight: a perfect place for mafia to hide. Also, inactives makes any kind of post analysis useless on them. For now, I'll vote Veldril.
And a perfect place for blues to hide as well. So we shouldn't lynch Aeres for lying and failing to defend himself but we should lynch an inactive on a nonconclusive basis? bulllllllshit.

On November 02 2010 10:43 Fishball wrote:


Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think it was confirmed by Aeres that the Cruise Ship Captain is a fake role. All we know is that he lied about the Bodyguard role.

On November 02 2010 10:45 NB wrote:

everyone has a special role... also im taking note seriously... but yeah, i made that number up
i just feel really unsafe when follow major bandwagon :<....

if thats a place holder vote and he is changing his, ima change mine :D

On November 02 2010 10:55 NB wrote:
ok you are right!.. its 6vs5... close

remind me of you voting for InfiniteStory to check if anyone protecting him or not

On November 02 2010 12:47 jcarlsoniv wrote:


I won't lie to you, I probably won't even bother reading it. I already know what it will say.




I have known this for quite a while, but it just got me thinking:
What do you think the odds are that the mods would change the "oracled" target if that target was modkilled? Idk, it just seems to me that if the player was modkilled, well that's tough shit for the oracle, his power is wasted for the day. Thinking about this, Node actually does seem pretty fishy.

Eye of Suspicion

On November 02 2010 12:44 L wrote:

Well, if he's mafia, he'll be a fucking annoyance for 2 more night or so, because I'd imagine he'll be honest with his telegraphed hits to the town. Day 5 i can see him lying to secure a critical kill to end the game, but whatever. Mafia's going to have to play around him one way or another and that's probably good for us. If you want to omit him from your list because there are better targets, that's cool beans.

As for DrH's votes not making a great difference; Wrong. DrH counts as 2 people for the purposes of town/mafia balance when we arrive at LyLo. Ignoring this now leads us into situations wherein we miscalculate our possibilities by 1 and lose to potential burst nightroles. Even within the next 2 days, its possible that we have m-rus explode all over everyone's faces and get pared down to a very spartan day 4 where a single extra vote might decide the game.

Anyways, mafia completely ruined my gaming tonight, so I'm off to go play a round before I get some sleep. Chowsers.

On November 02 2010 13:03 Beneather wrote:


Alright I shall try.

From lexpar post he had changed his mind from saying that if he dies DocH was scum without any information towards his statement. Trying to put the people's attention towards DocH (In my head trying to lynch him) But once the topic had changed from DocH to the other suspects he had changed his mind posting again to clarify this. In my head I am thinking that he was trying to get rid of DocH so we have lost a mayor and that he was an important role. If you look at his other posts he has just been accusing people with little background to support his statements. If you do accuse somebody should you not have background against them?

This is much harder than I expected but gets the brain thinking and is fun nonetheless

On November 02 2010 13:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:


Haha fair enough. I just wanted to put Eye of Suspicion on someone...

I was gonna on Lexpar, but he posted and placated me. It scares me that we haven't heard from Divinek...

On November 02 2010 13:16 jcarlsoniv wrote:


Feeling left out isn't the lead persuasion for wanting to search for other targets. Wanting to expand the discussion is.

While I know it is likely there are some blues lurking/being inactive, I would say that it is almost certain there are lurking mafia. This scares me because they can just sit back while people like Doc/Pandain/YM/infinite bicker and split the town into to halves.

On November 02 2010 13:24 Nemesis wrote:
Can someone do an analysis on misder? He seems to have a lot of low content post.

I am just too lazy right now as I have a lot of work to do.

On November 01 2010 10:09 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I decided to analyse misders posts because I've been feeling really uncomfortable with his role fishing. I'll analyse some other players that have been brought up as suspicious later.

Misder:

His first post concerns a question asking how Murrayitis works. Nothing scummy/towny in that, both sides would have an interest in knowing. For a while his posts just clarify rules for other players, say things that are obvious, etc. It isn't until his 4th or 5th post that he contributes.



I think it's fairly obvious that mafia is going to focus experienced players/whoever they suspect has the most powerful role in that case. If mafia won't know who to focus down (who is the most important blue) it would make sense that forcing roleclaims would be an important part of mafia strategy. This is a conclusion that can be drawn from the first part of your post.

Then you ask for a mass role claim. How can we check what everyone does in the night action? You could simply make up a night action that can not be checked and no one can hold you liable. If we are able to weed out the mafia fast enough? Mafia can just claim obvious roles like detective and doctor or wait for other people to roleclaim and say "oh i'm the same role as X". You don't give a strategy to weed out the mafia fast enough (which is an important part of this plan).

More posts about M-Rus come after this.



This is an easy conclusion to make. However I would say that if mafia don't have the power of spreading M-Rus, they would be interesting in goading the town into believing that was the case.

Misder then puts what I call light pressure on Pandain. It is nonconclusive, it makes sense on both sides of the coin. For town, it is in their interest to know more about their candidates. For mafia, it is in their interest to appear to disagree/oppose their teammates while creating the opportunity for their teammate to defend/fix themselves. They will appear to put pressure on a teammate without actually doing so. Not so important now, very important later as scumhunting increases in intensity.



I put down the idea, Misder is still convinced at this point it's a good idea.



This post comes after several people put it down. The rest of the points he make here are pretty valid.



Naturally I agree with his praise of me there. In this post he parrots concerns town had about Fishball and gves light criticism to Pandain.

Discourages circle claiming which seems really odd in the face that he earlier suggested a mass roleclaim and later tries to get others to roleclaim. He says he doesn't have a reason but that its risky? So if mafia is in the circle, all the mafia know who is in the circle, why wouldn't you want town to know as well? That's withholding information from the town that mafia has. Doesn't help us.



Moving his vote to Fishball. Reasonable play and he gives valid reasons for it. his problem with me assumes the existence of a role that could or couldn't exist and it seems like a sort of specific concern because (unlike suicide bombers and other potential roles that have brought concern) I don't recall a role like this in any previous mafia game PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong.



Fishes for a roleclaim. He qualifies it but this is pretty clear fishing IMO.


Valid question.



More fishing.



Everyone seems to agree that his claim was a bodyguard softclaim. LSB and Artanis earlier clarified in the thread that no one knows what roles are in this game or what they do, so your conclusion is what would appear to be an impossibility.



Tells Ace he isn't fishing and then fishes on Lexpar lol



These are questions on everyones mind. I have no problem with this.




First paragraph doesn't say much except he thinks the extra KP might have to do with the giant potato. Although why do you think this? Doesn't it seem more likely the extra KP was used on BrownBear considering the special circumtances surrounding his death? especially considering Node's supposed role everything about it seems quite "separate"



He already answered this earlier iirc



Again you refer to a mafia role that knows who visited them. Wouldn't that make DXC the mafia since he would be the one being visited?

Obviously there is a correlation between the BB death and DXC death and it's that node was told ahead of time : /



Brings up the possibility of DXC being mafia which was implied in his last post. However it seems with this post that he is discouraging people from visiting DXC rather than to visit him. If Misder was mafia and DXC was the mafia role (that knows who visited them) that misder has already referenced a few times, this doesn't seem like a logical play to me. This post doesn't come off scummy to me at all.



I have nothing to disagree with here, good post.



Assuming its a list. I already responded to this post specifically and I don't want to be redundant here.



Pretty obvious stuff, doesn't bring anything new to the table. Doesn't come off as either scum or town to me.



Possible attempt to see if I can reveal Lexpars role which he fished for earlier.

Conclusion:
Aside from the role fishing and occasional inconsistency nothing jumps off the play as particularly scummy. He makes some good points and arguments and is posting pretty reasonably and hasn't attacked anybody in particular or made a strong attempt to make anybody look bad. The only other thing that made me feel uncomfortable was the fact that he brought up this specific mafia role that may or may not exist several times and centered a few of his arguments around it.

I don't feel that Misder is definitely mafia but the dude needs to stop trying to get people to roleclaim. Due to the fishing, Misder definitely needs to be watched. I don't want to put the FoS on you but maybe the Eye of Suspicion or in laymans terms "I'm watching you, bro."

On November 03 2010 05:12 Pandain wrote:

1.If there is a roleblocker, they'll just keep on roleblocking him.
unless they cant roleblock twice in a row
2.If there's not(or if he is mafia), then he can just continue to claim he is/claim the other person is lying. that assumes i made my role up. i already explained why this is a ridiculous assumption. stop making me say the same obvious things over and over again to prove you wrong
He's claimed like, two different things that he says his role can do, but says they can't now.no i didn't And I also disagree that just because he's mayor we shouldn't lynch him, on the contrary, mafia having two votes is a bane for the town. assuming i am mafia which you seem to have done



If, if, if IF! I don't see how everyone can be so oblivious to how transparent Dr. H has been. or how transparent you have been in your attempts to make me look bad IF he's telling the truth, then he'll never be able to confirm it since mafia will keep roleblocking him. why do you assume the mafia have infinite roleblocks? you've made a lot of assumptions about powers mafia have throughout this game that a townie would have NO way of knowing for sure. THAT's suspicious.The only way we could get him to confirm is if mafia does not have roleblocker and Jcarl lied, but I find that highly unlikely. or there was another role that blocked what I had done such as a bus/redirector/commuter/hider

And I disagree with Dr. H being lynched not telling us about other people. It gives us insight about YM and Aeres no it doesn't, it's all WIFOM smoke and mirrors. If I'm mafia Aeres could be a bus. Both YM and Aeres defended me and Aeres defended me more, who's more suspicious in this case? Neither., and in addition we can't lynch YM(I'm pretty sure he has a role which means he can't be lynched.)you're prettttty sure? lol bullshit. he could be unlynchable (which typically works once), judas, or saulus, or a new insane role that artanis invented. worthless speculation and another possible soft fish for a roleclaim.

On November 03 2010 04:26 Pandain wrote:
An Analysis of Dr. H: or
Wtf Why Must You Post So Much

Summary:
Dr. H has liedno, deceivedno, and misled the townno. If anyone really wants to, I can go on, but just by seeing the first couple hundred posts it should be obvious how scummy Dr. H isok please make ur case lol. In addition, just noting right now, the fact that there are bandwagons going on which I believe have been started by mafia to hide the fact that Dr. H screwed up hard. Dr. H has lied about his roleno i didn't ;o, given false facts, contradicted himself countless times, and wasted by 2000th postAppeal to Emotion :3.

Basically, we can see some main thing which indicate he's scum.
1. He's lied about his role, and aspects regarding it
For example, we see he constantly has said things about his role which obviously he now says he cannot do. For instance:
+ Show Spoiler +

2.He contradicts himself/lies.

There are numerous examples of him either backtracking on stuff or just lying/misleading. nice that you've yet to point out oneNote many times he tries to lie/mislead/deceive, and if called out on it he will back downif by back down you mean explain myself?. Yet if no one does, he continues driving it home, embellishing it further and further and trying to establish it as fact. Even without taking into account the time's he's lied/contradicted himself on his role let's see some posts by him:

+ Show Spoiler +

3. Has played anti town.

He has continously played as if scum, leading town by his own hands. He claims to have lynched YM, then sinq is lynched, and he defends YM. I did lynch YM, the night post kinda confirms it. It's not a "claim" it's a fact lol He claims to be able to be 100% confirmed,I dropped this claim and later retracted it jesus christ stop bringing this up. yet now there is no way of knowing whether he is town or not and now he claims he knew he wouldn't be, but he was lying/not telling "for the good of town." I'm sorry, soaking up a POTENTIAL ROLEBLOCKER WHICH MIGHT NOT EVEN EXIST is not a good reason to run on a campaign. Dr. H. that wasn't my reason. I can still confirm my role to people. that's my power. Either you believe I am soaking up roleblocked or I am a mafia that made my role up. Please just tell me I made up my role so I can vote for you as scum in confidence. He has fished, given poor reasoning, and I'm sure I would find more evidence but believe I have found enough in his first 100-200 posts. If anyone really isn't convinced, I will submit more evidence, albeit relunctantly. Let's see:

+ Show Spoiler +

On November 02 2010 08:13 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Here is a summary of how I see the situation in the town right now.

Since I was not able to confirm myself to jcarlsoniv (either because he lied, because I lied, or because another night role prevented me from using my role) others in the town (mostly Pandain and Coagulation) have been very accusatory for me.

This is basically saying that because I was not confirmed to be town that means I am mafia. This is bad logic. This is a very simple situation. When I roleclaimed to the town and told them how my power of confirmation works it should have been equally obvious to everyone that a roleblocker role could stop me from acting and that the person I poke could lie. The latter is a possibility I openly talked about during my campaign, hoping it would make the mafia nervous and less likely to lie in the case that I do poke a mafia player.

The first I kept to myself. If the mafia are going to roleblock, it's better they roleblock me than say a plague doctor or a detective. This is something everyone should have known but really did not need to be said.

As far as the 100% confirmation issue, it is one that I dropped when I considered the possiblity that my role could be insane. The fact is, if my night action works, it confirms my role 100% to the person I poked in the exact way I've described a million times. I've been very consistent in my explanation of my role and I would argue that the assertion that I may have made up the role in the first place is absurd. I'll get to that later.

My night action depends on the night action succeeding. This is a tautology and I'm surprised people think it's something that needed to be set up. A typical sane medic can't protect someone if they are roleblocked but I doubt a medic would describe themselves as not being able to do their action.

I have since mostly stopped considering the idea that my role does not work the way it is described. Artanis said mods will not outright lie and that any deception in role PM's would be hinted at. I cannot quote my role PM, as it is cheating, but there is nothing in the role PM that could lead me to believe it is deceptive. There is no chance mechanic (like orgoloves) and the name/description is extremely straightforward. I poke someone and they know I poked them. If they don't know (and I wasn't roleblocked somehow) then it is because they have murrayitis. Artanis will tell me this. This means that if they DIDN'T get poked AND i don't get told they have murrayitis, that either:

A. Something stopped me from going forward with the role. A roleblocker or something else.
B. The person I poked lied.

So I'm just going to leave that at that. That's how my role works. As far as the idea that maybe I'm lying about my role, sure anything is possible but lets look at my post history:

In the beginning of the thread Node was saying things that led me to believe that we might have the same role. I tried to fish to see if we did indeed have the same role.



Here I am trying to see if he responds to the term "poke". He doesn't so I try something a bit more obvious. No one except another sticky would get the reference and if Node wasn't the second sticky maybe someone else was. Basically I wanted to confirm that if I was the only sticky or not. If there was a second sticky who responded, I would know for a fact they were town aligned, and I would poke them during the night.



This is my more obvious fish. This is very early in the thread.

Later kingjames discovers the significance of the name "Sticky" when Glasse tells me it sounds made up. Originally I thought sticky had something to do with that my body was covered in a sticky substance or something that made me immune to Murrayitis or that I was just a stick that poked people.

I forgot about the Bill Murray "Sticky" death post. It doesn't make sense that I wouldn't understand the name of a role that I MADE UP in the first place.

So lets say I made the role up. That means:
1. I anticipated Artanis' Bill Murray theme
2. Created a fake role which depends on indirectly communicating with other players, something that can be blocked. If I am mafia this requires me to out mafia to survive or sacrifice myself to a distrusting town for basically no reason or benefit
3. Coordinated with Node to fake a fish for the role I made up to appear as (presumably as Godfather) so I could later defend myself a few thousand posts later

And that I did all this to become mayor. A role that is NOT immune to rolechecks as it normally is, only has 1 extra vote (a negligible power since afaik mafia started out with 2 extra potential votes in the first place and there are other voting powers in the game. This diminishes the power of the mayor to swing bandwagons on his own)

Occams razor. Occams razor.

That is my general defense of the assaults that are happening on me right now. I believe this assault is a combination of mafia and misled town. The problem is determining who amongst this faction is town and who is mafia.

Knowing Pandain it is quite possible somebody wound him up and let him go off. Speculating on this will be difficult until we actually get a dead mafia. Then alliances in this game will become quite clear. The problem is getting our first lynch right. If vigilantes want to use your hit tonight, hit a player from the opposite "faction" or argumentative side as whoever was lynched unless the lynchee was a mafia.

So now I want to say some things about a few bad assumptions players are making:

1. Godfather exists
2. M-rus is a mafia ability
3. There has to be a mafia mayor candidate and it's one of the main ones

Watch out for people who continue talking about the godfather as though he is a for sure role in this game. Artanis confirmed it is up in the air. This however we do know, concerning the godfather.

1. If the Godfather exists, he must MAKE UP a role to appear as. If someone appears as a different role than they claimed in a DT check this is a huge paint for godfather as the GF has no way of knowing what roles are or aren't in the game.
2.If anyone else comes up as "Sticky" on a rolecheck besides myself, they're probably the Godfather. No one responded to my Sticky fish early in the game BUT because I believe I was the first person to reveal the name of my role the Godfather would know the name of 1 role in the game and it would be reasonable for him to choose that role. It was Glasse who first asked that I name my role.

2. Also we are assuming M-rus is a mafia ability. Node's roleclaim (and the fact that there are 3 deaths in the day) means we can pretty much forget the idea that the "2+1" mafia KP is 2 hits + 1 m-rus infection. I think it is more likely that M-rus is simply RNG'd onto a player or that another players role (not necessarily a mafia one) alludes to the fact that you are an insane/unknown M-rus carrier.

If the mafia spread M-Rus, perhaps they choose the person to put it on on day 1 and then thats it? The disease spreads quickly by how people visit eachother in the night, if the mafia could just continue spreading it around I think it would be very overpowered and they'd have half the town dead pretty quickly.

3. The mayor is not very strong in this game. Mafia don't need a mayor and in fact it might be more trouble for them than it's worth. 1 bodyguard, 1 extra vote, and that's really it as far as the mafia is concerned. Mafia aren't too scared of night kills as vig hits don't usually come until the late game and the main advantage of a mafia mayor is that he can't be rolechecked meaning you can give the Godfather role to another player.

Consider not only the intense scrutiny that the campaign brought initially (on myself, bum, pandain, and fishball) but the inense scrutiny that I am under now. Scrutiny on other mayoral candidates has since dropped off.

I believe that if mafia ran for mayor, it is quite possible it was one of the candidates that didn't do very well in the voting process. The mafia can then push the idea that "one of the main mayoral candidates MUST be mafia" while their initial runs for mayor go unscrutinized and unchecked. This is a possiblity. I do have suspicions that Pandain is mafia due to his poor attacks on me.

Lastly I want to say something. Forget about scumtells and all this stuff. When you look at what a player posts, yeah scumtells are all well and good, but any good mafia can point out a million scumtells that townies do and their town bandwagons depend on this. Look at a players goal. What is a player trying to accomplish? Is he arguing with the intent to get information crucial to the town or is he arguing with the intent to make a player look bad?

Scum wants to do the latter. They don't want the town to have any information, they don't care. What they do care about is that the town thinks someone else is scum or at the very least that the town doesn't trust the word of an experienced ally. Always think about the goal of the argument as well as the argument itself. Rhetoric is very important.

---

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This is something that is absolutely toxic to our ability to work together as a town to scumhunt.

By creating what appears to be alliances, the mafia can make several town players look bad or bus one mafia player to make several town players look bad. If we look at the series of defenses/attacks players have made on eachother a player could conclude that factions are forming within the game.

Just remember, it isn't necessarily all mafia on one side and one on the other. Dividing the town, creating factions, and drawing attention away from the facts and the arguments benefits the mafia. These factions are worth looking at when a mafia gets lynched and it becomes apparent who may have been a scumbuddy to that player.

That's my thoughts on the situation. I'll do some specific player analysis later. I'll be focusing on the seemingly opposing bandwagons concerning youngminii and Aeres as I feel mafia is behind one of these.

I'd like to ask Pandain a question. You said you would/could confirm yourself as townie even if you weren't mayor. You criticize me because i failed to do so. You also haven't confirmed yourself at all something that was part of your campaign promise. It strikes me as a tad bit hypocritical.

On November 02 2010 09:48 infinitestory wrote:

I don't know. Claiming the mods lie to justify his own... I see Aeres' whole thing as a very fleshed out but shitty plan. His alibi has no clear contradictions in it (even the slip up in talking makes sense if you think about someone who must act as if there are multiple bodyguards to defend DrH)
I'm not saying Aeres is town. I'm not saying he's a good or valuable player. I'm saying that youngminii's eagerness to lynch Aeres based on a lie, one which Aeres made a solid defense for, is suspicious.

On top of that, youngminii refuses to defend himself, he defends DrH vigorously, and now DrH comes to his defense. Perhaps you're the one who must stop being blind, because youngminii's unexplained attempt at martyrdom is beyond suspicious, and almost nobody has made a single comment on it up until my post.