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Haunted Mafia - Page 85

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Thegilaboy
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2018 Posts
October 15 2010 16:00 GMT
#1681
I think for now I'm going to put my vote down for Veldril while I head out to work. His connection to Masq seems like a good one, and if he really is a vamp then killing him would take one KP from them and that seems huge in this game since there are so many potential KPs as is. We have some good connections for day 2, but I usually prefer voting based on activity and posting rather than clues alone since there is always the potential of red herrings.
ShmotZ
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States581 Posts
October 15 2010 16:34 GMT
#1682
Hey, i have a question. The clues for this day if you were baseing the clues on somebodys profile, but a player got replaced, would you use clues from the replacement players profile or from the previoius players profile?

Just asking because i think i see a frilldora hat in Bill Murrays picture. And it might make sense lol, the hat for mafia, and the fact he raised a shitstorm "the bad smell".

If we already stopped going off on clues then i also have another suggestion. We go ahead and lynch Veldril or Bill Murray's replacement.

Reason for Veldril : We already know by the way he's been acting that somethings very wrong with him. If he turns out to be vampire we lower a KP by 1 and he turns out to be Mafia we even the odds for both sides.

Bill Murray's replacement *i think Glurio?* : Lynching Glurio would reveal Murray's true intentions if he was actually for the town or for the mafia/vamps.And if he was JoL like Murray claimed hopefully the bombs would go off on good suspects. If he turns out to be red, we can base our next assumptions off of that by who he assosiated with closely.

Id rather go off what we know and just Lynch Veldril since its more than likely hes a red and the less red there are, the closer we get to our goal.
Ah, computer dating. It's like pimping, but you rarely have to use the phrase "upside your head." - Bender
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
October 15 2010 17:18 GMT
#1683
On October 16 2010 01:34 ShmotZ wrote:
Hey, i have a question. The clues for this day if you were baseing the clues on somebodys profile, but a player got replaced, would you use clues from the replacement players profile or from the previoius players profile?

Just asking because i think i see a frilldora hat in Bill Murrays picture. And it might make sense lol, the hat for mafia, and the fact he raised a shitstorm "the bad smell".

If we already stopped going off on clues then i also have another suggestion. We go ahead and lynch Veldril or Bill Murray's replacement.

Reason for Veldril : We already know by the way he's been acting that somethings very wrong with him. If he turns out to be vampire we lower a KP by 1 and he turns out to be Mafia we even the odds for both sides.

Bill Murray's replacement *i think Glurio?* : Lynching Glurio would reveal Murray's true intentions if he was actually for the town or for the mafia/vamps.And if he was JoL like Murray claimed hopefully the bombs would go off on good suspects. If he turns out to be red, we can base our next assumptions off of that by who he assosiated with closely.

Id rather go off what we know and just Lynch Veldril since its more than likely hes a red and the less red there are, the closer we get to our goal.


I'm advocating Veldril over Glurio, albeit simply for the reason that it's not entirely fair to Glurio to lynch him the first day he gets to play for events that were completely out of his control.
SUNSFANNED
Archas
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States6531 Posts
October 15 2010 17:57 GMT
#1684
Sorry I haven't been too active lately... had a lot of stuff on my plate. = /

Personally, I think Vedril is as good a target for lynching as any. Jcarlsoniv was the one who swayed me in my decision. Veldril has been on shaky ground since Day 1, so the cloud of suspicion has hung over him for a while (to the point where Day 1's lynching was a vote-race between him and Masq, who he defended in the first place). Veldril hasn't shown much reticence in terms of laying low; I can't see why many blue players would choose to act with the (relative) abandon that he has, and there are precious few reasons to martyr yourself in a game where every player can make a difference (that goes doubly for power roles like blues, the Brute, and the Godfather). So, it's not likely that Veldril is blue.

If Veldril is green, then the town does take a hit, but like Jcarlsoniv said, the town is currently in the lead, so a green lynching is an acceptable loss, when you take into account the benefits that lynching scum would provide. I'm not saying lynching a green is a good thing, only that it's a permissible trade for a likely advantage.

Of course, lynching a red is excellent no matter which faction Veldril might belong to (assuming he IS red). Dropping the Vampire's KP is great, as is lessening the Mafia's current numerical superiority over Vamps. Either result is enough ucemtive, to me at least, to propose the lynching of Veldril. The rewards outweigh the risks.
The room is ripe with the stench of bitches!
Lexpar
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
1813 Posts
October 15 2010 18:37 GMT
#1685
Yeah it seems like Veldril's gonna get lynched now no matter what. We're gonna have problems if he's a vamp though. Mafia is pulling ahead a little to much for comfort.
jcarlsoniv
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States27922 Posts
October 15 2010 18:41 GMT
#1686
Agreed Lexpar. After today, we need to try and find Mafia members. If our detective(s) and Mad Scientist(s) and Boogeyman(...men?) could get as much information as possible for Day 3, it would really help the town.
Soniv ||| Soniv#1962 ||| @jcarlsoniv ||| The Big Golem ||| Join the Glorious Evolution. What's your favorite aminal, a bear? ||| Joe "Don't call me Daniel" "Soniv" "Daniel" Carlsberg LXIX ||| Paging Dr. John Shadow
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
October 15 2010 18:49 GMT
#1687
here is the thing

i do not like all these people saying "we have problems if he is a vamp" or somehow implying its bad for him to go if he is a vamp

the mafia already lost 1 person. this means that, in order for mafia to win AND town to not win, somehow, over the course of the entire game, mafia has to suffer no more than four further kills. the only possible way for mafia to win is if 11 vampires are dead. as soon as five mafia go away, then neither side can win (once vamps go down 5 too) without the town also winning, provided the town's numbers stay up.

and remember if there are 61 players and 16 red die, then you have 6 living reds and the town would need 7 living greens/blues. 13 total players. we are nowhere near the point where we have 7 town players left.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2573 Posts
October 15 2010 19:13 GMT
#1688
On October 16 2010 02:18 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 16 2010 01:34 ShmotZ wrote:
Hey, i have a question. The clues for this day if you were baseing the clues on somebodys profile, but a player got replaced, would you use clues from the replacement players profile or from the previoius players profile?

Just asking because i think i see a frilldora hat in Bill Murrays picture. And it might make sense lol, the hat for mafia, and the fact he raised a shitstorm "the bad smell".

If we already stopped going off on clues then i also have another suggestion. We go ahead and lynch Veldril or Bill Murray's replacement.

Reason for Veldril : We already know by the way he's been acting that somethings very wrong with him. If he turns out to be vampire we lower a KP by 1 and he turns out to be Mafia we even the odds for both sides.

Bill Murray's replacement *i think Glurio?* : Lynching Glurio would reveal Murray's true intentions if he was actually for the town or for the mafia/vamps.And if he was JoL like Murray claimed hopefully the bombs would go off on good suspects. If he turns out to be red, we can base our next assumptions off of that by who he assosiated with closely.

Id rather go off what we know and just Lynch Veldril since its more than likely hes a red and the less red there are, the closer we get to our goal.


I'm advocating Veldril over Glurio, albeit simply for the reason that it's not entirely fair to Glurio to lynch him the first day he gets to play for events that were completely out of his control.


Being fair should not really play into the decision I think. Bill Murray was suspicious and Glurio takes a suspicious guy's spot. Is that not reason enough? I did already vote Vendril though, but for next time...
Nemesis
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Canada2568 Posts
October 15 2010 19:47 GMT
#1689
On October 16 2010 03:49 annul wrote:
here is the thing

i do not like all these people saying "we have problems if he is a vamp" or somehow implying its bad for him to go if he is a vamp

the mafia already lost 1 person. this means that, in order for mafia to win AND town to not win, somehow, over the course of the entire game, mafia has to suffer no more than four further kills. the only possible way for mafia to win is if 11 vampires are dead. as soon as five mafia go away, then neither side can win (once vamps go down 5 too) without the town also winning, provided the town's numbers stay up.

and remember if there are 61 players and 16 red die, then you have 6 living reds and the town would need 7 living greens/blues. 13 total players. we are nowhere near the point where we have 7 town players left.

No actually town needs to kil at least 8 vampires and 8 mafia, not 4 of each.
Lee Young Ho fighting! KT P are just CHINTOSSTIC.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
October 15 2010 19:48 GMT
#1690
Alright, again, PEOPLE WHO GOT HIT NEED TO CLAIM.
Also,
Yum Yum analysis Time

A Panda Inspectors view into the Veldril Village

Summary:
Veldril has been very suscipcious this game. From defending a known vampire, to horrible accusations, to many numerous slips that cannot just be explained by his nationality/coincidence. Veldril has not made any real posts of his thoughts on anyone(besides Yogy, and I've already discussed that.). right now, Veldril in my eyes seems certainly vampire. We should lynch him to lower the vampire kp by one.
His posts this game:

On October 11 2010 14:46 Veldril wrote:
Reporting in.

Many victims seems to die by a weapon, maybe most are killed by mafia? Or maybe the vampire mimic the mafia style? However, I'm not sure is this important or not.

Also, nice find Glasse. That's really helpful. But maybe we can get more clue from the first night post that make the mafia/vamp more visible.



His first post. Doesn't really say anything, admits its not important. As of now, can be expalined away as being new, but keep an eye on it.


On October 11 2010 15:03 Veldril wrote:
Hey, he's killed by a dagger not sword, lol. And if you buy enough knives then you can literally pierce a person at every spot.


Picking at words, trying to laugh it off. This was after some people brought up the possible clues to him

On October 11 2010 15:11 Veldril wrote:
Another thing is that are we too readily to blame Masq for the kill? The evidence is quite obvious but it could be too obvious sometimes. We need to be a little bit more careful about voting.


The post that set off the fire. Here we see him defend Masq, yet note that it's not as "certain" as some people may make it out to seem. He doesn't say it doesn't apply, he says we need to be more cautious. In my eyes this is a pro town post, however in retrospect we see Masq is vampire. In addition, he warns against this clue because it is "too obvious." Not a very good reason, but not a very bad post.


On October 11 2010 15:33 Veldril wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 11 2010 15:14 Nemesis wrote:
On October 11 2010 15:11 Veldril wrote:
Another thing is that are we too readily to blame Masq for the kill? The evidence is quite obvious but it could be too obvious sometimes. We need to be a little bit more careful about voting.

Unless you have someone else in mind, then please enlighten us. Right now, it is the best lead we got.


I don't have one specific in my mind right now (that's why I don't vote yet). But I have some idea...

Firstly, because the Mafia and Vampire knows who are on the same team with them, they would want to deflect the blame if a person in his team is suspected. A person who rashly accuses other person could be a Mafia or a Vampire, especially on Day 1. Note that this is not about presenting suspicious players' profiles. But it's more about looking at only one profile and making an accusation without analysis or with an over-analysis.

Secondly, I believe that there's old-school player here so we might be able to check their previous post first before making an accusation. Analyzing the old posts in previous games might become useful if you have time to do it.


Mmmm... warns that an indictator of mafia/vampire could be that they accuse other people if someone is suspected. What I don't like about this post is he doesn't really give any concrete opinions, he has not as of yet. He's giving general advice, without any real opinions. Even the advice is kept in check by his admitting that he's not sure.


On October 11 2010 15:40 Veldril wrote:
Oh and by Mafia/Vampire deflecting blame in the first point of my previous post is that if they are lucky, they could kill other side too.

For Mafia/Vampire, I think they don't care much about who dies in the first couple of days/nights as long as it's not on their side. Townie dies mean they have less choice to make in the next cycle and if they can force townie to vote to kill the other side, then that would make them even have more profit.

Oh and I don't say that Masq is surely not a killer. I just think we need to look further for other clues too before accusing him solely. But he's one of the suspects though.

(Maybe I need a ghost in the first night ).


Says that mafia/vampire don't really care who dies as long as its not one of them. Alright, but wanna go any further? Here he also clarifies(or does he????) his position on masq, he's suscipcious of him, but thinks we need to look for more clues. Yet he doesn't offer anything!

Of course, he could just be lazy, but another thing to note. Also, whats with that last sentence? I'm so confused by that.

On October 12 2010 00:43 Veldril wrote:
Oh well, I think I deserve to be suspected for protecting Masq. But let's be clear, I'm suspecting Masq too but I don't want to draw conclusion based solely on the story that the GM wrote. To quote what Dr.H written in the introduction:

Show nested quote +
Clues:
During the day, people die. When people die, clues are left behind by the dastardly mafia (or monsters) that killed them. Clues may refer to a persons profile, name, and signature. They can be taken from anywhere and won't always be so obvious. Keep a sharp and open mind when looking for clues. Remember, clues often times hurt the town more than they help. Analyze but don't go overboard in trying to use clues to your advantage, you may just run yourself in circles. Mafia is a game of deception, guesswork, and manipulation before it is a game of clue analysis. Keep that in mind.


That means the clue might hurt townie like us too.

Now let me response to Bill Murray's post:

Show nested quote +
On October 11 2010 15:39 Bill Murray wrote:
On October 11 2010 14:46 Veldril wrote:
Reporting in.

Many victims seems to die by a weapon, maybe most are killed by mafia? Or maybe the vampire mimic the mafia style? However, I'm not sure is this important or not.

Also, nice find Glasse. That's really helpful. But maybe we can get more clue from the first night post that make the mafia/vamp more visible.


This seems very forced. Maybe this, maybe that. I'm voting this guy. Fuck all the clue speculation, let's lynch Veldril over this post.


I like your post here. Yes, I was absolutely did a bad post and deserve to be suspected. But after reading Ver's guide, do you think I would make a same mistake that Misder made in the past? I think not.

Show nested quote +
On October 11 2010 15:48 Bill Murray wrote:
On October 11 2010 15:33 Veldril wrote:
On October 11 2010 15:14 Nemesis wrote:
On October 11 2010 15:11 Veldril wrote:
Another thing is that are we too readily to blame Masq for the kill? The evidence is quite obvious but it could be too obvious sometimes. We need to be a little bit more careful about voting.

Unless you have someone else in mind, then please enlighten us. Right now, it is the best lead we got.


I don't have one specific in my mind right now (that's why I don't vote yet). But I have some idea...

Firstly, because the Mafia and Vampire knows who are on the same team with them, they would want to deflect the blame if a person in his team is suspected. A person who rashly accuses other person could be a Mafia or a Vampire, especially on Day 1. Note that this is not about presenting suspicious players' profiles. But it's more about looking at only one profile and making an accusation without analysis or with an over-analysis.

Secondly, I believe that there's old-school player here so we might be able to check their previous post first before making an accusation. Analyzing the old posts in previous games might become useful if you have time to do it.

LOL. YOU JUST ADMITTED YOU'D BUDDY WHEN MAFIA, AND YOU'VE BEEN DOING IT WITH MASQ. I DON'T MEAN TO BE FUNNY WITH HALLOWEEN-REFERENCES, BUT THAT WAS REALLY THE NAIL IN YOUR COFFIN MR VAMPIRE LOL


Could you please clarify how I admitted that I'm a mafia/vampire? Because I defended Masq? I guess your logic is something like this.

If someone is a mafia/vampire then that person would defend blame on his team mate.
If a person defend other person then those people are teammate.

Veldril defend Masq
Therefore,Veldril and Masq are team mate.
Therefore, Veldril and Masq are vampire.

If your logic is like above then I think you have made both formal fallacy and informal fallacy. With an experienced player like you, it is unlikely that you would make such fallacies, unless you ignore them to make an accusation on me with some agendas. Of course, I could be wrong but in that case, could you please clarify why do you think I team up with Masq please?


this post is very, very intersting. Let's see a core assumption this post makes:
1. Masq is mafia/vampire
Why?:
"I deserve to be suspected for protecting masq." But why, if you think we need to look at other people. Why does protecting masq make you a suspect, unless of course you know he's mafia/vampire.

Also he now warns we should be wary of clues, and in retrospect the clue led to Masq being caught. Also, he says "townie like us", but that just seems forced. Very forced.

Then he defends his(he admits?!!!) bad post, but defends that by saying "Do you REALLY think I would do the same thing as Ver described?" Using wifom to defend himself, not good.

Now for another interesting part of this post:
Veldril defend Masq
Therefore,Veldril and Masq are team mate.
Therefore, Veldril and Masq are vampire.

I believe this is a slip up. I think it's already been noted, but of course I'm going through all of his posts. He doesn't say "Therefore, Veldril and masq are vampire/mafia", he says "Therefore, veldril and masq are VAMPIRE."


On October 12 2010 00:46 Veldril wrote:
Oh and Bill, I concluded that you are experienced player because you participated in many Mafia game before. You even hosted a game. I checked your post history.


OMG NOTE THAT. This is important for a future post of his. He knows how to use search function.

On October 12 2010 02:12 Veldril wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2010 02:02 Flicky wrote:
My general opinion on the Whole Masq thing is that he's not doing a great job of defending himself despite it only being day 1.

While it's possible it's "too obvious" to some, as soon as I realised it can't have been a Jack O'Lantern framing, the more it seems that's the only lead.

Seems likely to me and that a possible miss-lynch wouldn't be too much of an issue.


After spending time reading rules, I do agree that miss-lynch on the first day is not a big issue. We have 61 players here, with 22 reds. That we have 39 greens/blues. Considering that mafias and vampires each can kill up to 3 people (or have to kill three people I'm not sure, might need clarification on this), we can say that on the first day plus first night, there will be up to 7 people dead. If all dead are hit at townie, then townie will have 32 player left. And worst case would be 7 of either vampire or mafia are killed (only single side), which I believe is very unlikely.


This post just states the obvious, simple logic.


On October 12 2010 04:07 Veldril wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2010 04:00 Bill Murray wrote:
On October 12 2010 00:43 Veldril wrote:
Oh well, I think I deserve to be suspected for protecting Masq. But let's be clear, I'm suspecting Masq too but I don't want to draw conclusion based solely on the story that the GM wrote. To quote what Dr.H written in the introduction:

Clues:
During the day, people die. When people die, clues are left behind by the dastardly mafia (or monsters) that killed them. Clues may refer to a persons profile, name, and signature. They can be taken from anywhere and won't always be so obvious. Keep a sharp and open mind when looking for clues. Remember, clues often times hurt the town more than they help. Analyze but don't go overboard in trying to use clues to your advantage, you may just run yourself in circles. Mafia is a game of deception, guesswork, and manipulation before it is a game of clue analysis. Keep that in mind.


That means the clue might hurt townie like us too.

Now let me response to Bill Murray's post:

On October 11 2010 15:39 Bill Murray wrote:
On October 11 2010 14:46 Veldril wrote:
Reporting in.

Many victims seems to die by a weapon, maybe most are killed by mafia? Or maybe the vampire mimic the mafia style? However, I'm not sure is this important or not.

Also, nice find Glasse. That's really helpful. But maybe we can get more clue from the first night post that make the mafia/vamp more visible.


This seems very forced. Maybe this, maybe that. I'm voting this guy. Fuck all the clue speculation, let's lynch Veldril over this post.


I like your post here. Yes, I was absolutely did a bad post and deserve to be suspected. But after reading Ver's guide, do you think I would make a same mistake that Misder made in the past? I think not.

On October 11 2010 15:48 Bill Murray wrote:
On October 11 2010 15:33 Veldril wrote:
On October 11 2010 15:14 Nemesis wrote:
On October 11 2010 15:11 Veldril wrote:
Another thing is that are we too readily to blame Masq for the kill? The evidence is quite obvious but it could be too obvious sometimes. We need to be a little bit more careful about voting.

Unless you have someone else in mind, then please enlighten us. Right now, it is the best lead we got.


I don't have one specific in my mind right now (that's why I don't vote yet). But I have some idea...

Firstly, because the Mafia and Vampire knows who are on the same team with them, they would want to deflect the blame if a person in his team is suspected. A person who rashly accuses other person could be a Mafia or a Vampire, especially on Day 1. Note that this is not about presenting suspicious players' profiles. But it's more about looking at only one profile and making an accusation without analysis or with an over-analysis.

Secondly, I believe that there's old-school player here so we might be able to check their previous post first before making an accusation. Analyzing the old posts in previous games might become useful if you have time to do it.

LOL. YOU JUST ADMITTED YOU'D BUDDY WHEN MAFIA, AND YOU'VE BEEN DOING IT WITH MASQ. I DON'T MEAN TO BE FUNNY WITH HALLOWEEN-REFERENCES, BUT THAT WAS REALLY THE NAIL IN YOUR COFFIN MR VAMPIRE LOL


Could you please clarify how I admitted that I'm a mafia/vampire? Because I defended Masq? I guess your logic is something like this.

If someone is a mafia/vampire then that person would defend blame on his team mate.
If a person defend other person then those people are teammate.

Veldril defend Masq
Therefore,Veldril and Masq are team mate.
Therefore, Veldril and Masq are vampire.

If your logic is like above then I think you have made both formal fallacy and informal fallacy. With an experienced player like you, it is unlikely that you would make such fallacies, unless you ignore them to make an accusation on me with some agendas. Of course, I could be wrong but in that case, could you please clarify why do you think I team up with Masq please?


my logic is more like this:

you said "as mafia, i would defend someone"
you said so AFTER defending someone
therefore, it is possible you are mafia with them

the fact you are squirming and attacking my logic, while calling me an experienced player claiming I have a hidden agenda (which I don't and it's a fucking straight out lie), is making me really really want you to be lynched.

You are pretty good for a newbie. Your logic is better than mine. My logic sucks. I don't give a fuck if my logic sucks, though, you have made many fucking mistakes. You are mafia. You are either mafia or a vampire, and I'm going to get you lynched.

Sorry.


Hmmm, fair enough. You have your points spoken and that's fine for me.

Well, maybe I jumped my conclusion that "experienced player = player familiar with logic" so if that's not true then my argument would be unsound. But since we really don't know is it true or not, we could just left it for others to decide.


Backs down. I had a pm with Dr. H that one of the major scum tells is someone accusing/making a point, then backing down. Now, obviously townies can do this all the time, but it points towards a scum.


On October 12 2010 04:21 Veldril wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2010 04:16 orgolove wrote:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ap0Ejzlf165MdENWM3p1cHNOcDlnT0o4bjNUUFdVMlE&hl=en&output=html

So far we have a few people who have had several tells. These may not be conclusive, but just putting it out there:

jodogohoo-"what is mafia" pretended to be noob, changed vote multiple times 1st day
Masq-apart from profile matching the clue, immediately agreed with Veldril when defended
aztrorisk-strongly accused shmotz, switched to masq when others started, defended glasse when his hammer profile pic was mentioned
Bill Murray-happy to kill coagulation/masq, posted PMs with aztorisk (!!!) - untrustworthy?


And we can see that most of the votes are against these few. Now, I don't understand the following votes:
ShmotZ - 1 - KtheZ - (L-30)
seRapH - 2 - NB, coagulation - (L-29)
coagulation - 3 - seRapH, deconduo, jcarlsoniv - (L-28)


These votes can't be explained by the newbie logic of "he voted for me, so I'm voting for him"
What's interesting to note is, seraph accused coagulation, then NB and coagulation voted Seraph back.

Also, I haven't seen jcarlsoniv or deconduo post in this thread, only in the voting thread. These might be from the same faction- I dunno...


Deconduo has posted once.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=159453&currentpage=17#327


alright, we've already established he knows how to use the search function. But then, why did he mislabel the number of posts Deconduo has made? Either:
1. He can't count.
2.Theres an ulterior motive.

I'm going to leave this open to interperation, as I'm not sure myself.


On October 12 2010 19:02 Veldril wrote:
It seems most people are out for my blood now.

I feel like now when I try to defend or propose something up, most people will come up with even more excuses to vote me. It seems I really made a grudge with Bill Murray, since he's the most vocal to get me killed. I don't really understand why you would want me to get lynched so badly. I would shift a vote off you if you have explain the reason why do you think "defending others" would mean "Red defends Red".

Also, I feel that either me or Masq get lynched, it would not be a good situation for Townie or me at all. If Masq get lynched and turn out to be red, people would still suspect me and that could hurt townie since they would spend their focus on me being red and I would still get fried. If Masq turn out to be green, I don't think some people will let me go free without discrediting me, therefore I could not make impact in the future day/night.

However, if I get lynched today, it would be a game over. It may seems cowardice but I will have to vote for Masq to save myself. I just wish that Masq indeed turns out to be green.


Here he explains his vote for Masq. Note some key things in this statement. Now, he says he's from Thailand, and I believe he is(thus, english not first language.) But these should still be noted.
"It would not be a good situation for townie OR ME." Indicating he's not townie.

"However, if I get lynched today, it would be a game over." Is he soft claiming blue? I'm confuzzled. I don't think he's blue, he would've said something by now.

On October 13 2010 00:45 Veldril wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2010 23:24 jcarlsoniv wrote:
On October 12 2010 22:42 CubEdIn wrote:
I don't get this bandwaggoning that's going on.

WHY is Veldril more important than Masq? We are only voting for him BECAUSE he tried to defend Masq, so if we're voting for him, then we just assume that Masq is also M/V. Correct?

So why not be methodical about it, and start with Masq? If he proves to be a Mafia/Vamp, then we'll know for sure that so is Veldril. If not, then our whole premise was wrong and we should rethink our steps.

How is this an issue? WHY VELDRIL FIRST?

I don't get the reasoning here.


I am not condemning Veldril only because he defended Masq. That was what led into it. His actions afterwards are what convinced me that he should be lynched. He started "chainsaw defending", pointing fingers elsewhere, but not aggressively. He was doing it rather passively, trying to just slip out of view and get the attention somewhere else. When someone created an argument, he conceded very very easily, which I see as an attempt to make fewer enemies. His posts made it seem like he was trying to prove innocence, which is not necessarily something a townie would feel the need to do as much.


I find it odd with your observation here.

When I attack BM's argument back then, I attacked him quite aggressively to make his logic fall apart. Every time I try to defend my position, he respond very aggressively so I have to try other methods to back my argument, which is what make he thinks that by protecting Masq is equal to we teaming up and be on the same team. He still doesn't response me and when orglove try to press him at this point, he also react aggressively.

Also, if most people start accusing you, wouldn't you want to prove your innocence. Since I don't have proof and I don't want to point finger randomly (only to BM now). That's why I stated in the previous post, every attempt of me defending myself looks like I make a bad post as a red, and every aggressive move toward me is a good post or good observation for some people. Doesn't it weird?

Final note, please look at where I come from. You have to consider cultural and personality impact on making arguments too, because sometimes Asian countries have different way to answer. In Thailand, it is most of the time considered polite to be passive when someone make an argument against you. We also consider our false directly in logical argument so we would not misjudge or build a better argument.


Softly(at least) accuses BM. claims he doesn't want to point fingers randomly, but then says (only to BM now.)

Defends his "playstyle" by saying wheres he from. Eh...

On October 13 2010 16:23 Veldril wrote:
And Masq turns out to be a vampire...

If you guys are so worried about me, role check me if you want. You can even plant a bogeyman to spy whether someone visit me or not to. However, I think that some people are now 100% sure of my role right now.

Remember that town wants to reduce the number of vampire and mafia gradually and have their number similar to each other. Moreover, Mafia now would want to use town vote to kill me more than dirty their own hands. Lynching me now would only help strengthen Mafia.

All in all, reserve your judgment until day 2. There's going to be a lot of killing this night.


This post basically claims vampire. First off "I think that people now are 100% sure of my role right now."
Listen to his reasons for not lynching him:
1. We want to keep vampire/mafia numbers even. Basically claimed vampire there.
2. Lynching me now would only help mafia. Another indictation.

On October 14 2010 16:42 Veldril wrote:
Don't jump your conclusion yet. There are several reasons that I did not die on Night 2.

1. A ghost protected me.
2. I have been poisoned, therefore will be death the next night.
3. It is better to keep me alive because I have drawn too much attention upon myself.
4. Bum and Youngminii and LSB are better target to kill than me, because they fervently wanted me to get lynched on day 1.
5. It is better to get me lynched than wasting night action/kill on me, especially when many people suspecting me as a vampire.


Alright, this is just a horrible post. First off, he would've claimed a ghost protected him, he can't know if he's been poisoned, and Bum really didn't "ferevantly" want you to get lynched.

Also, if you've drawn too much attention to yourself, obviously you've done something wrong. It's true perhaps mafia wants us just to kill veldril via lynching, but personally I would still be okay with it because it lowers the vampire kp by one.

On October 14 2010 19:06 Veldril wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2010 18:56 KhrisKruel wrote:
On October 13 2010 16:23 Veldril wrote:
And Masq turns out to be a vampire...

If you guys are so worried about me, role check me if you want. You can even plant a bogeyman to spy whether someone visit me or not to. However, I think that some people are now 100% sure of my role right now.

Remember that town wants to reduce the number of vampire and mafia gradually and have their number similar to each other. Moreover, Mafia now would want to use town vote to kill me more than dirty their own hands. Lynching me now would only help strengthen Mafia.

All in all, reserve your judgment until day 2. There's going to be a lot of killing this night.


Can you explain this?

If you were a townie, how would your death strengthen the mafia?

To me this is basically a vampire claim


Basically, it is because by lynching me, Mafia has nothing to lose.

If I'm green, it just at worst a miss but they would not lose a member and maintain 2 more members than a vampire. They can even trace back and analyze to find more possible vampire's member by looking at voting and posting on day 1 relating to accusing me.

If I'm a vampire, then basically they reduce the KP of vampire down by 1, and has 3 more members than vampire. That means vampire would be less likely to kill Mafia on Night 2 because they can only kill 2 people, while mafia can kill 3 . In this case (lynching me and I turn out to be a vampire), assuming that they both kill each others perfectly, vampire would be reduce to 4 people but Mafia would be only reduce 8, gaining even more leading.


explanation.

On October 14 2010 23:55 Veldril wrote:
Whether I'm a vampire or not is not a problem right now. The issue is that by lynching me today, Mafias would gain advantages over Town and Vampire.

If I flip green, they use previous vote to trace back who is vampire. Even if they miss on night 2, there would still have suspects list that could be used later to fish out vampire. It could also put a townie who vote for me on day 1 in danger.

If I flip blue, well... I think I don't have to explain how this would affect town.

If I flip vampire, they gain a lot of advantage as I explained in the previous post.

Right now, town's best interest should be thinning down the number of mafias first. And when vampire and mafia number are approximately equal, then town can choose the course of action at that point, be it lynching me, other known/suspected vampires or known/suspected mafia.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now let me presented a possible Mafia player that we should vote for today: Yogy

The reasons that we should lynch this person are:

1. He voted Masq without posting anything before. If he's Mafia, then he would know that Masq is not on his team. Voting Masq, whom the clue implied to be a killer, would be the best vote to get rid of a vampire.

The date and time he voted Masq is

Show nested quote +
On October 11 2010 16:37 Yogy wrote:
Vote Masq

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=6559376

2. Later, he came up with this post:

Show nested quote +
On October 13 2010 01:41 Yogy wrote:
I've been pretty inactive in posting I confess, new to this and trying to get the hang of it. No one has been telling me what to do or who to vote to lynch, I've come to that decision myself.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=6572368

Why would someone tell that there's no one telling him what to do or vote if he acted independently? If he indeed acted independently, he should have a reason why he voted for Masq, may it be he is so sure about the clue or else. Moreover, he posted this after someone compile the number of posts each player made. For me, it is very suspicious.

3. He is always inactive. Except the post I quote above, he make no other posts at all. By voting him right now would force him to be more active and we could get more information out of him that would benefit town.

Therefore, with these three reasons above, I placed my vote on Yogy.


To me this is just trying to change the direction of the bandwagon on him onto another player. Except its not a very good argument for lynching Yogy(no clues apply we can see, alot of people are inactive, and i thought you said you don't like random finger pointing.)

The "If i flip blue" sentence indicates he's not blue. He's not worried about that situation.

Now some more interesting tidbits:
"Right now, town's best interest should be thinning down the number of mafias first" Not him, aka not vampires. Another unintentional(?) claim.

"be it lynching me, other known/suspected vampires or known/suspected mafia." Note its OTHER known/suspected vampires, and just known/suspected mafia in general. Perhaps this is a bit picky, but in combination with all of those other slips, its just too much to pass up.

On October 15 2010 03:26 Veldril wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 15 2010 03:15 Nemesis wrote:
On October 14 2010 18:44 Veldril wrote:
On October 14 2010 18:28 KhrisKruel wrote:
edit by way of post:

I forgot 4...

Vedril, point 3 and 5 completely contradict each other.

4) all 3 of those people are dead


For point 1-2, it just a possibilities. No one knows am I poisoned or protected or not. If I'm poison then only Vampires know, if I'm protected only ghost who protected me knows.

You were definitely not protected as you didn't seem to know that people who were protected get pmed.
On October 14 2010 13:41 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
If someone is hit and survived I will PM them with that information. If a ghost successfully saves someone I will also PM them.

It's just not public information.


Also, why would the ghost protect you? Stop trying to defend yourself as you are just digging yourself a deeper grave.

Just be happy that people are considering not killing you today and save you for some other day.


Oh, I really skipped that part = =. My bad, sorry. Please skip point 1 then.



-.-
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
October 15 2010 19:52 GMT
#1691
Daaaaaamn, Pandain. Nice analysis, sir.

On October 16 2010 03:37 Lexpar wrote:
Yeah it seems like Veldril's gonna get lynched now no matter what. We're gonna have problems if he's a vamp though. Mafia is pulling ahead a little to much for comfort.


Mafia's taken a very backseat role, it seems. They're comfortable just sitting here letting the town vamp-hunt. However, it's not a problem if Veldril is (as I believe) a vampire. One more vamp dies, they're down from 3 KP to 2, which is a huge benefit to town.

After today's lynch, lets start looking at the lurkers and see who's the most scummy, because I bet you that's where mafia is hiding currently, eating popcorn and laughing at the hapless vampire team.
SUNSFANNED
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
October 15 2010 19:54 GMT
#1692
On October 16 2010 04:47 Nemesis wrote:
No actually town needs to kil at least 8 vampires and 8 mafia, not 4 of each.


uh yeah, if you bothered to read what i had to say you would see that i am not talking about town's win condition on its own, i am talking about the fact that mafia CANNOT win without the town winning once we kill 4 more of them and we have more than 13 total players
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
October 15 2010 20:00 GMT
#1693
On October 16 2010 04:54 annul wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 16 2010 04:47 Nemesis wrote:
No actually town needs to kil at least 8 vampires and 8 mafia, not 4 of each.


uh yeah, if you bothered to read what i had to say you would see that i am not talking about town's win condition on its own, i am talking about the fact that mafia CANNOT win without the town winning once we kill 4 more of them and we have more than 13 total players


...what?

There are 10 mafia and 8 vamps left, IIRC.

To win, town needs to drop mafia and vamp count down to 3 per team or less, BEFORE one team drops to zero.

I'm failing to see your point here.
SUNSFANNED
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
October 15 2010 20:07 GMT
#1694
after veld lynch we really need to focus on mafia
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
October 15 2010 20:09 GMT
#1695
with 11 mafia and 11 vampires, in order for mafia to win, they need to get vampires down to 0

if mafia gets vampires down to 0 with no losses, then that means 12 total red killed. in order for town to win, then, we need to kill 4 more mafia before that happens.

so what i am saying is, everyone who says that it is bad to kill another vampire should be looked at closely, because with all the blue roles and the like, what are the odds that we do not kill 4 mafia before they manage to take out 8 vampires? not to mention as the game progresses if vampires get really low then all the clues will continue to be mafia clues, and the game balances out anyway
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
October 15 2010 20:10 GMT
#1696
Vampires, you need to make an alliance with me ASAP.
Send a vampire spawn to pm me(not dracula or something.)

Its up to you to reveal the amount to share, but keep in mind the more we know the more mafia we're going to kill. Perhaps just do a "hey, look at these people" analysis or "don't do this guy."


We'll be able to get JoL's on mafia, dts to check them, etc...
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
October 15 2010 20:12 GMT
#1697
Here, I'm going to leave it open. Town will be at a "word against word" if I'm lying or not about who is vampire if we get that far.

Meet me at the IRC thing #Pandasaver. Use a secret username if you want. We're not allowed to discuss it really, so, it'll be cool like dat.
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
October 15 2010 20:13 GMT
#1698
On October 16 2010 05:09 annul wrote:
with 11 mafia and 11 vampires, in order for mafia to win, they need to get vampires down to 0

if mafia gets vampires down to 0 with no losses, then that means 12 total red killed. in order for town to win, then, we need to kill 4 more mafia before that happens.

so what i am saying is, everyone who says that it is bad to kill another vampire should be looked at closely, because with all the blue roles and the like, what are the odds that we do not kill 4 mafia before they manage to take out 8 vampires? not to mention as the game progresses if vampires get really low then all the clues will continue to be mafia clues, and the game balances out anyway


See, but this number 12 doesn't mean anything. You just pulled it out of your ass.

Nowhere in the OP does it say 12 scumkills = victory.
SUNSFANNED
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
October 15 2010 20:16 GMT
#1699
On October 16 2010 05:13 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 16 2010 05:09 annul wrote:
with 11 mafia and 11 vampires, in order for mafia to win, they need to get vampires down to 0

if mafia gets vampires down to 0 with no losses, then that means 12 total red killed. in order for town to win, then, we need to kill 4 more mafia before that happens.

so what i am saying is, everyone who says that it is bad to kill another vampire should be looked at closely, because with all the blue roles and the like, what are the odds that we do not kill 4 mafia before they manage to take out 8 vampires? not to mention as the game progresses if vampires get really low then all the clues will continue to be mafia clues, and the game balances out anyway


See, but this number 12 doesn't mean anything. You just pulled it out of your ass.

Nowhere in the OP does it say 12 scumkills = victory.


Town victory conditions: More than 8 mafia/vampire are dead and town outnumbers remaining ones. I think he got confused by forgetting 8 mafia have to also be dead in order for us to win.

However, sorry for spam, but ya, you vamps should just send a guy under hidden IP, I ask if it's alright to go after some people I'm suscipcious of or something, and you say "yes or no." Or do it however you want.

That'll be the last I'll mention this, sorry.
jcarlsoniv
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States27922 Posts
October 15 2010 20:21 GMT
#1700
Pandain, that's a good, thorough analysis, and I agree with you. A while back I did an analysis on about the first half of his posts.

Backs down. I had a pm with Dr. H that one of the major scum tells is someone accusing/making a point, then backing down. Now, obviously townies can do this all the time, but it points towards a scum.


I thought we couldn't discuss PMs shared with mods... :3
Soniv ||| Soniv#1962 ||| @jcarlsoniv ||| The Big Golem ||| Join the Glorious Evolution. What's your favorite aminal, a bear? ||| Joe "Don't call me Daniel" "Soniv" "Daniel" Carlsberg LXIX ||| Paging Dr. John Shadow
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