Haunted Mafia - Page 85

On October 16 2010 01:34 ShmotZ wrote:
Hey, i have a question. The clues for this day if you were baseing the clues on somebodys profile, but a player got replaced, would you use clues from the replacement players profile or from the previoius players profile?

Just asking because i think i see a frilldora hat in Bill Murrays picture. And it might make sense lol, the hat for mafia, and the fact he raised a shitstorm "the bad smell".

If we already stopped going off on clues then i also have another suggestion. We go ahead and lynch Veldril or Bill Murray's replacement.

Reason for Veldril : We already know by the way he's been acting that somethings very wrong with him. If he turns out to be vampire we lower a KP by 1 and he turns out to be Mafia we even the odds for both sides.

Bill Murray's replacement *i think Glurio?* : Lynching Glurio would reveal Murray's true intentions if he was actually for the town or for the mafia/vamps.And if he was JoL like Murray claimed hopefully the bombs would go off on good suspects. If he turns out to be red, we can base our next assumptions off of that by who he assosiated with closely.

Id rather go off what we know and just Lynch Veldril since its more than likely hes a red and the less red there are, the closer we get to our goal.

On October 16 2010 02:18 BrownBear wrote:


I'm advocating Veldril over Glurio, albeit simply for the reason that it's not entirely fair to Glurio to lynch him the first day he gets to play for events that were completely out of his control.

On October 16 2010 03:49 annul wrote:
here is the thing

i do not like all these people saying "we have problems if he is a vamp" or somehow implying its bad for him to go if he is a vamp

the mafia already lost 1 person. this means that, in order for mafia to win AND town to not win, somehow, over the course of the entire game, mafia has to suffer no more than four further kills. the only possible way for mafia to win is if 11 vampires are dead. as soon as five mafia go away, then neither side can win (once vamps go down 5 too) without the town also winning, provided the town's numbers stay up.

and remember if there are 61 players and 16 red die, then you have 6 living reds and the town would need 7 living greens/blues. 13 total players. we are nowhere near the point where we have 7 town players left.

On October 11 2010 14:46 Veldril wrote:
Reporting in.

Many victims seems to die by a weapon, maybe most are killed by mafia? Or maybe the vampire mimic the mafia style? However, I'm not sure is this important or not.

Also, nice find Glasse. That's really helpful. But maybe we can get more clue from the first night post that make the mafia/vamp more visible.

On October 11 2010 15:03 Veldril wrote:
Hey, he's killed by a dagger not sword, lol. And if you buy enough knives then you can literally pierce a person at every spot.

On October 11 2010 15:11 Veldril wrote:
Another thing is that are we too readily to blame Masq for the kill? The evidence is quite obvious but it could be too obvious sometimes. We need to be a little bit more careful about voting.

On October 11 2010 15:33 Veldril wrote:


I don't have one specific in my mind right now (that's why I don't vote yet). But I have some idea...

Firstly, because the Mafia and Vampire knows who are on the same team with them, they would want to deflect the blame if a person in his team is suspected. A person who rashly accuses other person could be a Mafia or a Vampire, especially on Day 1. Note that this is not about presenting suspicious players' profiles. But it's more about looking at only one profile and making an accusation without analysis or with an over-analysis.

Secondly, I believe that there's old-school player here so we might be able to check their previous post first before making an accusation. Analyzing the old posts in previous games might become useful if you have time to do it.

On October 11 2010 15:40 Veldril wrote:
Oh and by Mafia/Vampire deflecting blame in the first point of my previous post is that if they are lucky, they could kill other side too.

For Mafia/Vampire, I think they don't care much about who dies in the first couple of days/nights as long as it's not on their side. Townie dies mean they have less choice to make in the next cycle and if they can force townie to vote to kill the other side, then that would make them even have more profit.

Oh and I don't say that Masq is surely not a killer. I just think we need to look further for other clues too before accusing him solely. But he's one of the suspects though.

(Maybe I need a ghost in the first night ).

On October 12 2010 00:43 Veldril wrote:
Oh well, I think I deserve to be suspected for protecting Masq. But let's be clear, I'm suspecting Masq too but I don't want to draw conclusion based solely on the story that the GM wrote. To quote what Dr.H written in the introduction:



That means the clue might hurt townie like us too.

Now let me response to Bill Murray's post:



I like your post here. Yes, I was absolutely did a bad post and deserve to be suspected. But after reading Ver's guide, do you think I would make a same mistake that Misder made in the past? I think not.



Could you please clarify how I admitted that I'm a mafia/vampire? Because I defended Masq? I guess your logic is something like this.

If someone is a mafia/vampire then that person would defend blame on his team mate.
If a person defend other person then those people are teammate.

Veldril defend Masq
Therefore,Veldril and Masq are team mate.
Therefore, Veldril and Masq are vampire.

If your logic is like above then I think you have made both formal fallacy and informal fallacy. With an experienced player like you, it is unlikely that you would make such fallacies, unless you ignore them to make an accusation on me with some agendas. Of course, I could be wrong but in that case, could you please clarify why do you think I team up with Masq please?

Veldril defend Masq
Therefore,Veldril and Masq are team mate.
Therefore, Veldril and Masq are vampire.

On October 12 2010 00:46 Veldril wrote:
Oh and Bill, I concluded that you are experienced player because you participated in many Mafia game before. You even hosted a game. I checked your post history.

On October 12 2010 02:12 Veldril wrote:


After spending time reading rules, I do agree that miss-lynch on the first day is not a big issue. We have 61 players here, with 22 reds. That we have 39 greens/blues. Considering that mafias and vampires each can kill up to 3 people (or have to kill three people I'm not sure, might need clarification on this), we can say that on the first day plus first night, there will be up to 7 people dead. If all dead are hit at townie, then townie will have 32 player left. And worst case would be 7 of either vampire or mafia are killed (only single side), which I believe is very unlikely.

On October 12 2010 04:07 Veldril wrote:


Hmmm, fair enough. You have your points spoken and that's fine for me.

Well, maybe I jumped my conclusion that "experienced player = player familiar with logic" so if that's not true then my argument would be unsound. But since we really don't know is it true or not, we could just left it for others to decide.

On October 12 2010 04:21 Veldril wrote:


Deconduo has posted once.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=159453&currentpage=17#327

On October 12 2010 19:02 Veldril wrote:
It seems most people are out for my blood now.

I feel like now when I try to defend or propose something up, most people will come up with even more excuses to vote me. It seems I really made a grudge with Bill Murray, since he's the most vocal to get me killed. I don't really understand why you would want me to get lynched so badly. I would shift a vote off you if you have explain the reason why do you think "defending others" would mean "Red defends Red".

Also, I feel that either me or Masq get lynched, it would not be a good situation for Townie or me at all. If Masq get lynched and turn out to be red, people would still suspect me and that could hurt townie since they would spend their focus on me being red and I would still get fried. If Masq turn out to be green, I don't think some people will let me go free without discrediting me, therefore I could not make impact in the future day/night.

However, if I get lynched today, it would be a game over. It may seems cowardice but I will have to vote for Masq to save myself. I just wish that Masq indeed turns out to be green.

On October 13 2010 00:45 Veldril wrote:


I find it odd with your observation here.

When I attack BM's argument back then, I attacked him quite aggressively to make his logic fall apart. Every time I try to defend my position, he respond very aggressively so I have to try other methods to back my argument, which is what make he thinks that by protecting Masq is equal to we teaming up and be on the same team. He still doesn't response me and when orglove try to press him at this point, he also react aggressively.

Also, if most people start accusing you, wouldn't you want to prove your innocence. Since I don't have proof and I don't want to point finger randomly (only to BM now). That's why I stated in the previous post, every attempt of me defending myself looks like I make a bad post as a red, and every aggressive move toward me is a good post or good observation for some people. Doesn't it weird?

Final note, please look at where I come from. You have to consider cultural and personality impact on making arguments too, because sometimes Asian countries have different way to answer. In Thailand, it is most of the time considered polite to be passive when someone make an argument against you. We also consider our false directly in logical argument so we would not misjudge or build a better argument.

On October 13 2010 16:23 Veldril wrote:
And Masq turns out to be a vampire...

If you guys are so worried about me, role check me if you want. You can even plant a bogeyman to spy whether someone visit me or not to. However, I think that some people are now 100% sure of my role right now.

Remember that town wants to reduce the number of vampire and mafia gradually and have their number similar to each other. Moreover, Mafia now would want to use town vote to kill me more than dirty their own hands. Lynching me now would only help strengthen Mafia.

All in all, reserve your judgment until day 2. There's going to be a lot of killing this night.

On October 14 2010 16:42 Veldril wrote:
Don't jump your conclusion yet. There are several reasons that I did not die on Night 2.

1. A ghost protected me.
2. I have been poisoned, therefore will be death the next night.
3. It is better to keep me alive because I have drawn too much attention upon myself.
4. Bum and Youngminii and LSB are better target to kill than me, because they fervently wanted me to get lynched on day 1.
5. It is better to get me lynched than wasting night action/kill on me, especially when many people suspecting me as a vampire.

On October 14 2010 19:06 Veldril wrote:


Basically, it is because by lynching me, Mafia has nothing to lose.

If I'm green, it just at worst a miss but they would not lose a member and maintain 2 more members than a vampire. They can even trace back and analyze to find more possible vampire's member by looking at voting and posting on day 1 relating to accusing me.

If I'm a vampire, then basically they reduce the KP of vampire down by 1, and has 3 more members than vampire. That means vampire would be less likely to kill Mafia on Night 2 because they can only kill 2 people, while mafia can kill 3 . In this case (lynching me and I turn out to be a vampire), assuming that they both kill each others perfectly, vampire would be reduce to 4 people but Mafia would be only reduce 8, gaining even more leading.

On October 14 2010 23:55 Veldril wrote:
Whether I'm a vampire or not is not a problem right now. The issue is that by lynching me today, Mafias would gain advantages over Town and Vampire.

If I flip green, they use previous vote to trace back who is vampire. Even if they miss on night 2, there would still have suspects list that could be used later to fish out vampire. It could also put a townie who vote for me on day 1 in danger.

If I flip blue, well... I think I don't have to explain how this would affect town.

If I flip vampire, they gain a lot of advantage as I explained in the previous post.

Right now, town's best interest should be thinning down the number of mafias first. And when vampire and mafia number are approximately equal, then town can choose the course of action at that point, be it lynching me, other known/suspected vampires or known/suspected mafia.

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Now let me presented a possible Mafia player that we should vote for today: Yogy

The reasons that we should lynch this person are:

1. He voted Masq without posting anything before. If he's Mafia, then he would know that Masq is not on his team. Voting Masq, whom the clue implied to be a killer, would be the best vote to get rid of a vampire.

The date and time he voted Masq is


http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=6559376

2. Later, he came up with this post:


http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=6572368

Why would someone tell that there's no one telling him what to do or vote if he acted independently? If he indeed acted independently, he should have a reason why he voted for Masq, may it be he is so sure about the clue or else. Moreover, he posted this after someone compile the number of posts each player made. For me, it is very suspicious.

3. He is always inactive. Except the post I quote above, he make no other posts at all. By voting him right now would force him to be more active and we could get more information out of him that would benefit town.

Therefore, with these three reasons above, I placed my vote on Yogy.

On October 15 2010 03:26 Veldril wrote:


Oh, I really skipped that part = =. My bad, sorry. Please skip point 1 then.

On October 16 2010 03:37 Lexpar wrote:
Yeah it seems like Veldril's gonna get lynched now no matter what. We're gonna have problems if he's a vamp though. Mafia is pulling ahead a little to much for comfort.

On October 16 2010 04:47 Nemesis wrote:
No actually town needs to kil at least 8 vampires and 8 mafia, not 4 of each.

On October 16 2010 04:54 annul wrote:


uh yeah, if you bothered to read what i had to say you would see that i am not talking about town's win condition on its own, i am talking about the fact that mafia CANNOT win without the town winning once we kill 4 more of them and we have more than 13 total players

On October 16 2010 05:09 annul wrote:
with 11 mafia and 11 vampires, in order for mafia to win, they need to get vampires down to 0

if mafia gets vampires down to 0 with no losses, then that means 12 total red killed. in order for town to win, then, we need to kill 4 more mafia before that happens.

so what i am saying is, everyone who says that it is bad to kill another vampire should be looked at closely, because with all the blue roles and the like, what are the odds that we do not kill 4 mafia before they manage to take out 8 vampires? not to mention as the game progresses if vampires get really low then all the clues will continue to be mafia clues, and the game balances out anyway

On October 16 2010 05:13 BrownBear wrote:


See, but this number 12 doesn't mean anything. You just pulled it out of your ass.

Nowhere in the OP does it say 12 scumkills = victory.

Backs down. I had a pm with Dr. H that one of the major scum tells is someone accusing/making a point, then backing down. Now, obviously townies can do this all the time, but it points towards a scum.