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TL Mafia XXVIII - Page 88

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
July 23 2010 22:01 GMT
#1741
going to be gone till about 12 EST tonight. Feels good to have it mostly figured out and with good logic too.
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
July 23 2010 22:24 GMT
#1742
Sup.

##Vote chaoser
lalala
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
July 23 2010 23:13 GMT
#1743
Argh woke up at 4 -.-. Interesting developments...

Just thought I should put this out there that hitting BC does look like a very Tricode-esque move.
From what I understand and from skimming previous mafia games Tricode has an innate hatred of BC and always wants to kill him. His actions thus far have proved this point.

I would like to hear my output on (i think) Tree.hugger's idea of getting the two DT's to PM Tricode so they can get in contact with each other. I feel Tricode is in a very dangerous spot right now. For me anyway, the chances are high that he will be killed tonight. Tricode could be a huge asset to the town right now, let's not forget him. I would advise, in my own humble, noob opinion, that we not lynch Tricode tonight if possible.
tree.hugger
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
July 23 2010 23:21 GMT
#1744
On July 24 2010 06:59 SiNiquity wrote:
To be honest I do agree with your hunch of Tricode being innocent I also think that d3 is innocent as well. But sadly neither are conclusive, and we should be wary of roleclaiming based on hunches.

No, I think we understand each other actually. I think that's a risk we should be taking, however, I'd like to hear what Tricode has to say about this. He's not the kind of player that inspires confidence in his play.
ModeratorEffOrt, Snow, GuMiho, and Team Liquid
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
July 23 2010 23:50 GMT
#1745
tree.hugger: The town shot down my roleclaim idea yesterday, I don't think enough time has passed for people to consider a roleclaim scheme now. Plus, tricode is in NO WAY 100% cleared, chaoser's logic is sound but we have no way to check that mafia actually followed sound logic, thus we cannot assume that mafia always act using solid logic (they could purposefully do something dumb, hoping town will assume they would never do something so dumb because nobody could be that dumb right guys?)

So, I'll echo:

DO NOT CLAIM TO TRICODE

yet, at least!
SUNSFANNED
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
July 23 2010 23:56 GMT
#1746
I am glad to see that today has been a lot more reasonable than the previous two days. I believe that the whole topic of myself/tricode will continue to be discussed, but I am glad at the logical conclusions thus far. However, the town also has to discuss places to begin for lynch targets. As a player who has been in a lot of mafia games, and well didn’t think I would have to outline something like this, I shall.

To begin with (ignore the fact its day 3 for the moment). Hosts will RNG roles and typically tweak the player list slightly. (making sure a group of first time players isn’t red vs a group of experienced players for instance). Some hosts will openly admit to doing this, some hosts will deny it. The truth of the matter is, every host does it. Be it by RNGing a role again, to physically swapping someones roles. (chuiu is exempt from this generalization as I know he didn’t).

Now, everyone would tweak things the same way, but I will do a briefly outline of how I would do it if I were a host.

Well known experienced players. (see names like ver, qatol, ace, caller, L, bloodyc0bbler, incognito, flamewheel, foolishness, etc…)

Basically players who have a lot of experience.

Not as well known experienced players (see names such as infundibulum, amber[light], opz, bumatlarge, chaoser, tree.hugger, d3, zeks)

Rising stars (see names such as youngminii, DTA, Korynee, etc..)

Completely new players (everyone else)

Now, at this point, in the case of very few well known experienced players, they typically will be given town roles (note, usually townie, or non major blue) as they can help create order, and teach new players, or help guide the flow of things. In the case of many, usually a small group is placed in red as to compete against those who are town.

In the case of a small group however, the mafia breakup is that of usually rising stars, or people who are experienced but can easily defend themselves in a pinch but rarely recognized to the general public. New players will be split among both groups as they need experience in every role still.

Now, as a player, as well as a host, part of my playing style always includes looking at how someone may have balanced the game. note everyone does it differently so the way I would do things is not the same as any other host .
It does however give me a starting ground on how to start scum hunting.

In a game of this format, and even more specifically this game. I see of well known names most people would recognize as Myself, Citizen, and foolishness. We have all played in a fair amount of games and most new players at this point will most likely hear of our names quickly, read it in the thread, etc…
We will usually be instantly distrustful of each other and be a balancing issue if we are town/red as we at our core will take longer to trust someone who is forced into a form of spotlight regardless of wanting to be there.
Note: Pyrr isn’t included in this list as he may not be as well known after a large large break from mafia.

We then have a large group of experienced players who aren’t as well known, but have played in many many games. They make up the core of the players this game.

We have a few rising stars, and a smaller group of new players.


To begin with scum hunting I would look at the list of the big 3 and realize that either 1 or none of us are red. The possibility of there being one however is what keeps us wary of eachother all game.

Of the rising stars, I would say most likely with such a low count of them this game, also 1. As they would be expected to compete for top spot this game.

Of the newer players, most likely 1-2. As their role doesn’t matter as much as they have to learn from square one regardless.

Rest of the roles would be made up of people from the experienced group. Now, from there you have a general idea of lists breakups.

List of 3 (or 4 if you count pyrr) names where 0-1 is red
Foolishness, bloodyc0bbler, citizen (pyrr)

A list of 2 where most likely 0-1 is red. Where 1 is more likely.
DTA, Youngminii

A list of 6 where 1-2 will most likely be red
Siniquity, Southrawrea, Pandain, subversion, misder, protactinium

Then everyone else to make up the last 2-4 red.

From this you have a generalized standpoint of where to start looking. And with those lists in mind you look at posting histories, styles, voting patterns and the like to best narrow down the red on that respective list. Once a # of reds has been found off a list of grouped players, you can generally ignore it briefly. (note some hosts may not do it as I have laid out, but this is merely a starting format to work from).

People will make slipups, imply or reveal they are working with so and so and one flips red then the other does, etc…
It however gives everyone a generalized place to start and begin to try and narrow reds down as it puts the chances of nailing one earlier on higher than others.


With all this in mind, I will be going back over the thread and analyzing people. Expect another large post in the next few hours.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
July 24 2010 00:01 GMT
#1747
^ Interesting theory. Don't know whether I agree with it completely (I'm not disagreeing, I just don't have an opinion yet) but a very interesting read nonetheless.
lalala
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
July 24 2010 00:06 GMT
#1748
On July 24 2010 08:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
I am glad to see that today has been a lot more reasonable than the previous two days. I believe that the whole topic of myself/tricode will continue to be discussed, but I am glad at the logical conclusions thus far. However, the town also has to discuss places to begin for lynch targets. As a player who has been in a lot of mafia games, and well didn’t think I would have to outline something like this, I shall.

To begin with (ignore the fact its day 3 for the moment). Hosts will RNG roles and typically tweak the player list slightly. (making sure a group of first time players isn’t red vs a group of experienced players for instance). Some hosts will openly admit to doing this, some hosts will deny it. The truth of the matter is, every host does it. Be it by RNGing a role again, to physically swapping someones roles. (chuiu is exempt from this generalization as I know he didn’t).

Now, everyone would tweak things the same way, but I will do a briefly outline of how I would do it if I were a host.

Well known experienced players. (see names like ver, qatol, ace, caller, L, bloodyc0bbler, incognito, flamewheel, foolishness, etc…)

Basically players who have a lot of experience.

Not as well known experienced players (see names such as infundibulum, amber[light], opz, bumatlarge, chaoser, tree.hugger, d3, zeks)

Rising stars (see names such as youngminii, DTA, Korynee, etc..)

Completely new players (everyone else)

Now, at this point, in the case of very few well known experienced players, they typically will be given town roles (note, usually townie, or non major blue) as they can help create order, and teach new players, or help guide the flow of things. In the case of many, usually a small group is placed in red as to compete against those who are town.

In the case of a small group however, the mafia breakup is that of usually rising stars, or people who are experienced but can easily defend themselves in a pinch but rarely recognized to the general public. New players will be split among both groups as they need experience in every role still.

Now, as a player, as well as a host, part of my playing style always includes looking at how someone may have balanced the game. note everyone does it differently so the way I would do things is not the same as any other host .
It does however give me a starting ground on how to start scum hunting.

In a game of this format, and even more specifically this game. I see of well known names most people would recognize as Myself, Citizen, and foolishness. We have all played in a fair amount of games and most new players at this point will most likely hear of our names quickly, read it in the thread, etc…
We will usually be instantly distrustful of each other and be a balancing issue if we are town/red as we at our core will take longer to trust someone who is forced into a form of spotlight regardless of wanting to be there.
Note: Pyrr isn’t included in this list as he may not be as well known after a large large break from mafia.

We then have a large group of experienced players who aren’t as well known, but have played in many many games. They make up the core of the players this game.

We have a few rising stars, and a smaller group of new players.


To begin with scum hunting I would look at the list of the big 3 and realize that either 1 or none of us are red. The possibility of there being one however is what keeps us wary of eachother all game.

Of the rising stars, I would say most likely with such a low count of them this game, also 1. As they would be expected to compete for top spot this game.

Of the newer players, most likely 1-2. As their role doesn’t matter as much as they have to learn from square one regardless.

Rest of the roles would be made up of people from the experienced group. Now, from there you have a general idea of lists breakups.

List of 3 (or 4 if you count pyrr) names where 0-1 is red
Foolishness, bloodyc0bbler, citizen (pyrr)

A list of 2 where most likely 0-1 is red. Where 1 is more likely.
DTA, Youngminii

A list of 6 where 1-2 will most likely be red
Siniquity, Southrawrea, Pandain, subversion, misder, protactinium

T[hen everyone else to make up the last 2-4 red.

From this you have a generalized standpoint of where to start looking. And with those lists in mind you look at posting histories, styles, voting patterns and the like to best narrow down the red on that respective list. Once a # of reds has been found off a list of grouped players, you can generally ignore it briefly. (note some hosts may not do it as I have laid out, but this is merely a starting format to work from).

People will make slipups, imply or reveal they are working with so and so and one flips red then the other does, etc…
It however gives everyone a generalized place to start and begin to try and narrow reds down as it puts the chances of nailing one earlier on higher than others.


With all this in mind, I will be going back over the thread and analyzing people. Expect another large post in the next few hours.


Just another thing I would add, the mafia gets to choose out of their team the GF, correct? So It is likely that they would choose a more experienced player to fit that role. So we should also be cautious of one of the high-experienced players being GF as well.
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
July 24 2010 00:11 GMT
#1749
On July 24 2010 09:06 Pandain wrote:
On July 24 2010 08:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
I am glad to see that today has been a lot more reasonable than the previous two days. I believe that the whole topic of myself/tricode will continue to be discussed, but I am glad at the logical conclusions thus far. However, the town also has to discuss places to begin for lynch targets. As a player who has been in a lot of mafia games, and well didn’t think I would have to outline something like this, I shall.

To begin with (ignore the fact its day 3 for the moment). Hosts will RNG roles and typically tweak the player list slightly. (making sure a group of first time players isn’t red vs a group of experienced players for instance). Some hosts will openly admit to doing this, some hosts will deny it. The truth of the matter is, every host does it. Be it by RNGing a role again, to physically swapping someones roles. (chuiu is exempt from this generalization as I know he didn’t).

Now, everyone would tweak things the same way, but I will do a briefly outline of how I would do it if I were a host.

Well known experienced players. (see names like ver, qatol, ace, caller, L, bloodyc0bbler, incognito, flamewheel, foolishness, etc…)

Basically players who have a lot of experience.

Not as well known experienced players (see names such as infundibulum, amber[light], opz, bumatlarge, chaoser, tree.hugger, d3, zeks)

Rising stars (see names such as youngminii, DTA, Korynee, etc..)

Completely new players (everyone else)

Now, at this point, in the case of very few well known experienced players, they typically will be given town roles (note, usually townie, or non major blue) as they can help create order, and teach new players, or help guide the flow of things. In the case of many, usually a small group is placed in red as to compete against those who are town.

In the case of a small group however, the mafia breakup is that of usually rising stars, or people who are experienced but can easily defend themselves in a pinch but rarely recognized to the general public. New players will be split among both groups as they need experience in every role still.

Now, as a player, as well as a host, part of my playing style always includes looking at how someone may have balanced the game. note everyone does it differently so the way I would do things is not the same as any other host .
It does however give me a starting ground on how to start scum hunting.

In a game of this format, and even more specifically this game. I see of well known names most people would recognize as Myself, Citizen, and foolishness. We have all played in a fair amount of games and most new players at this point will most likely hear of our names quickly, read it in the thread, etc…
We will usually be instantly distrustful of each other and be a balancing issue if we are town/red as we at our core will take longer to trust someone who is forced into a form of spotlight regardless of wanting to be there.
Note: Pyrr isn’t included in this list as he may not be as well known after a large large break from mafia.

We then have a large group of experienced players who aren’t as well known, but have played in many many games. They make up the core of the players this game.

We have a few rising stars, and a smaller group of new players.


To begin with scum hunting I would look at the list of the big 3 and realize that either 1 or none of us are red. The possibility of there being one however is what keeps us wary of eachother all game.

Of the rising stars, I would say most likely with such a low count of them this game, also 1. As they would be expected to compete for top spot this game.

Of the newer players, most likely 1-2. As their role doesn’t matter as much as they have to learn from square one regardless.

Rest of the roles would be made up of people from the experienced group. Now, from there you have a general idea of lists breakups.

List of 3 (or 4 if you count pyrr) names where 0-1 is red
Foolishness, bloodyc0bbler, citizen (pyrr)

A list of 2 where most likely 0-1 is red. Where 1 is more likely.
DTA, Youngminii

A list of 6 where 1-2 will most likely be red
Siniquity, Southrawrea, Pandain, subversion, misder, protactinium

T[hen everyone else to make up the last 2-4 red.

From this you have a generalized standpoint of where to start looking. And with those lists in mind you look at posting histories, styles, voting patterns and the like to best narrow down the red on that respective list. Once a # of reds has been found off a list of grouped players, you can generally ignore it briefly. (note some hosts may not do it as I have laid out, but this is merely a starting format to work from).

People will make slipups, imply or reveal they are working with so and so and one flips red then the other does, etc…
It however gives everyone a generalized place to start and begin to try and narrow reds down as it puts the chances of nailing one earlier on higher than others.


With all this in mind, I will be going back over the thread and analyzing people. Expect another large post in the next few hours.


Just another thing I would add, the mafia gets to choose out of their team the GF, correct? So It is likely that they would choose a more experienced player to fit that role. So we should also be cautious of one of the high-experienced players being GF as well.


not neccesarily. The GF is chosen to be the best player who a team will think will survive the longest. In a game a team has for instance 1 really experienced player and 1 rising star, 2 newbies and two semi experienced. Chances are the rising star, or a semi experienced will get it. The more experienced you are, the longer you can typically argue being potentially a miller, or get a dt who called you out condemned to death.

It depends on a team and who they think best could fit the role. In the case of one really solid player and a bunch of newer ones, the really solid one will typically get it though as he would need to survive to instruct them.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
lakrismamma
Profile Joined August 2006
Sweden543 Posts
July 24 2010 00:15 GMT
#1750
Very interesting post BC. You dont say very much though exept that you are implying that citi.zen is mafia. Say it out loud and give your reasons, I will be looking forward to the long post.
I hear thunder but theres no rain. This type of thunder breaks walls and window panes.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
July 24 2010 00:16 GMT
#1751
There's a couple of strategies. One is to just make the highest profile player the GF.

But if mafia want to do some fake claiming strategies, it is usually best to make a low-key player GF to arouse less suspicion.
rastaban
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States2294 Posts
July 24 2010 00:19 GMT
#1752
On July 24 2010 08:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I am glad to see that today has been a lot more reasonable than the previous two days. I believe that the whole topic of myself/tricode will continue to be discussed, but I am glad at the logical conclusions thus far. However, the town also has to discuss places to begin for lynch targets. As a player who has been in a lot of mafia games, and well didn’t think I would have to outline something like this, I shall.

To begin with (ignore the fact its day 3 for the moment). Hosts will RNG roles and typically tweak the player list slightly. (making sure a group of first time players isn’t red vs a group of experienced players for instance). Some hosts will openly admit to doing this, some hosts will deny it. The truth of the matter is, every host does it. Be it by RNGing a role again, to physically swapping someones roles. (chuiu is exempt from this generalization as I know he didn’t).

Now, everyone would tweak things the same way, but I will do a briefly outline of how I would do it if I were a host.

Well known experienced players. (see names like ver, qatol, ace, caller, L, bloodyc0bbler, incognito, flamewheel, foolishness, etc…)

Basically players who have a lot of experience.

Not as well known experienced players (see names such as infundibulum, amber[light], opz, bumatlarge, chaoser, tree.hugger, d3, zeks)

Rising stars (see names such as youngminii, DTA, Korynee, etc..)

Completely new players (everyone else)

Now, at this point, in the case of very few well known experienced players, they typically will be given town roles (note, usually townie, or non major blue) as they can help create order, and teach new players, or help guide the flow of things. In the case of many, usually a small group is placed in red as to compete against those who are town.

In the case of a small group however, the mafia breakup is that of usually rising stars, or people who are experienced but can easily defend themselves in a pinch but rarely recognized to the general public. New players will be split among both groups as they need experience in every role still.

Now, as a player, as well as a host, part of my playing style always includes looking at how someone may have balanced the game. note everyone does it differently so the way I would do things is not the same as any other host .
It does however give me a starting ground on how to start scum hunting.

In a game of this format, and even more specifically this game. I see of well known names most people would recognize as Myself, Citizen, and foolishness. We have all played in a fair amount of games and most new players at this point will most likely hear of our names quickly, read it in the thread, etc…
We will usually be instantly distrustful of each other and be a balancing issue if we are town/red as we at our core will take longer to trust someone who is forced into a form of spotlight regardless of wanting to be there.
Note: Pyrr isn’t included in this list as he may not be as well known after a large large break from mafia.

We then have a large group of experienced players who aren’t as well known, but have played in many many games. They make up the core of the players this game.

We have a few rising stars, and a smaller group of new players.


To begin with scum hunting I would look at the list of the big 3 and realize that either 1 or none of us are red. The possibility of there being one however is what keeps us wary of eachother all game.

Of the rising stars, I would say most likely with such a low count of them this game, also 1. As they would be expected to compete for top spot this game.

Of the newer players, most likely 1-2. As their role doesn’t matter as much as they have to learn from square one regardless.

Rest of the roles would be made up of people from the experienced group. Now, from there you have a general idea of lists breakups.

List of 3 (or 4 if you count pyrr) names where 0-1 is red
Foolishness, bloodyc0bbler, citizen (pyrr)

A list of 2 where most likely 0-1 is red. Where 1 is more likely.
DTA, Youngminii

A list of 6 where 1-2 will most likely be red
Siniquity, Southrawrea, Pandain, subversion, misder, protactinium

Then everyone else to make up the last 2-4 red.

From this you have a generalized standpoint of where to start looking. And with those lists in mind you look at posting histories, styles, voting patterns and the like to best narrow down the red on that respective list. Once a # of reds has been found off a list of grouped players, you can generally ignore it briefly. (note some hosts may not do it as I have laid out, but this is merely a starting format to work from).

People will make slipups, imply or reveal they are working with so and so and one flips red then the other does, etc…
It however gives everyone a generalized place to start and begin to try and narrow reds down as it puts the chances of nailing one earlier on higher than others.


With all this in mind, I will be going back over the thread and analyzing people. Expect another large post in the next few hours.



Wow mafia or not, I need to keep a record of these types posts for my future games as a play book

I would say that this is BMs second game, so he is probably less inclined to mess with how the roles pan out.
Tyler: "...damn it, that's StarCraft. Opening doors is what we do. Being the first to find food is the greatest pleasure a player can have!"
rastaban
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States2294 Posts
July 24 2010 00:23 GMT
#1753
grrr, BM can I edit my post and spoiler the quote, It makes my small retort look so inconsequential and my post take up the whole page.

How long does it take you guys to come up with the big posts? I get 2 or 3 paragraphs together and I am half an hour or more in.

as for the talk about GF, is there a miller in this game, DTA didn't list one in the role count, but he did put it in the op list of roles.
Tyler: "...damn it, that's StarCraft. Opening doors is what we do. Being the first to find food is the greatest pleasure a player can have!"
lakrismamma
Profile Joined August 2006
Sweden543 Posts
July 24 2010 00:26 GMT
#1754
On July 24 2010 08:50 BrownBear wrote:
tree.hugger: The town shot down my roleclaim idea yesterday, I don't think enough time has passed for people to consider a roleclaim scheme now. Plus, tricode is in NO WAY 100% cleared, chaoser's logic is sound but we have no way to check that mafia actually followed sound logic, thus we cannot assume that mafia always act using solid logic (they could purposefully do something dumb, hoping town will assume they would never do something so dumb because nobody could be that dumb right guys?)

So, I'll echo:

DO NOT CLAIM TO TRICODE

yet, at least!


Well if no other person claim vigilante then its clear that Tricode is telling the truth. Then I see no reason not to mass claim to him. This can only help town.
Your plan was crap because we had to sacrifice vets and we still wasn't sure to get what we want.
So at the moment we have 24 hours until night. Lets give it another 8 hours and then everyone has to roleclaim!

I hear thunder but theres no rain. This type of thunder breaks walls and window panes.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
July 24 2010 00:29 GMT
#1755
Whoa intense.. wasn't the night supposed to end later? O.o I thought nights were 24 hours.

Anyhow, let us assume that BC is town-aligned.
If he were a blue role such as medic he may just be claiming to be hit to avoid having the mafia go for him during the night and instead go for another player to increase the chances of them hitting a blue role. This however is quite risky because BC runs the chances of being lynched. Although he may be a blue role that was actually saved in the night.(I'll come back to this in a second) In any case the prior can be ruled out as it's very unlikely.

If he were a veteran this is a town-favouring claim as it doesn't suggest that he is veteran but it clears him to the extent that claiming veteran does without the negative effects of helping the mafia find the blues.

If he were a normal villager, this is pretty self-explanatory as he's just telling the truth. If he were a saved blue/green, by announcing that he was saved he could come in contact with the doctor that saved him. In order for this to happen though, the vigilante would have to come out and announce who he shot. We could then build a circle of trust in the village making it much easier to lynch people as we would have a confirmed villager, a doctor claim or two (if the second is a mafia then we have a lynchee if the other doctor dies) and a confirmed vigilante as the mafia would need 3 KP for this scenario to be pulled off. Of course the doctor claim(s) would only come after the vigilante claim. The results are obvious if there is a cc, double lynch. If there is no cc, then we are cleared. The real vigilante should not be afraid to cc if a fake one claims either as if he does, he gets to use his life for one guaranteed mafia's life which is superior to his shooting skill as he might hit a villager and he essentially gets another shot after using his first one on BC. Once that is cleared up we would have a cleared villager and we could have claims going to him.

If BC was mafia however:
Vig would claim. If we get a cc, DL both of them and as mentioned before, the Vig would be making great use of his life but BC would be neither confirmed or unconfirmed. You would expect that the real vig would be the one saying that he didn't shoot and the fake would say that he did but it may work in the reverse as the mafia might want to take out the vig if they feel he is a dangerous player. In any case, the town definitely benefits from a vig claim.

So read over this, give thoughts and if they are positive, vig claim please.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
July 24 2010 00:31 GMT
#1756
Was just putting out those scenarios to encourage the other vig if Tricode is fake to cc Tricode. We also need time to give everyone a chance. Everyone roleclaiming at this point in the game is a bad idea I believe. It's much too early I think.
Subversion
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
South Africa3627 Posts
July 24 2010 00:33 GMT
#1757
Woah, nice post BC, that was a pretty interesting read ^_^
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
July 24 2010 00:48 GMT
#1758
My case on Chaoser.

[spoiler]
Let us delve into the mind of scum. The pattern for a normal, general scum that doesn't go out of his way to do anything out of the ordinary is quite simple. Lay low on the first day or two and slowly come out with accusations. Be very careful of jumping on bandwagons as it may arouse suspicion. Rather than openly coming out and making a case on someone on the first day/two, try to find someone that is making a fool of themselves and make a small case to see if it gains momentum. I think we can all agree that this is a standard way of playing as scum, keeps the suspicion low while still contributing information.

Now let us look at chaoser's early game. One of his first posts is to abstain. This vote does not change for the entire day. Fits perfectly in line with my 'lay low' theory, especially (as the wonderful Pandain pointed out) as chaoser was so against my 'no lynch' strategy. One would have to wonder why he didn't simply vote for someone if he was so against it. He raises the counter argument that voting to abstain is different from voting to no lynch, which is a moot point in my opinion really.
I think it's less about the days and more about the fact that we get tons of information from looking at vote lists

Cool, chaoser wants information from voting lists on the first day. In fact, he even points this out to the public. So why does he not vote for anyone? Oh right, abstaining doesn't label you as 'against' someone. Good stuff in my opinion, I'd probably do it too if I was scum.

So up until early Day 2, chaoser continues to bring in a wealth of information (such as the voting history of certain people etc.) but doesn't actually accuse anyone. All he does is make some accusatory comment that doesn't really have any flair to it. See below.

chaoser to BB:
So basically you just said: "lawl, i messed up/made a mistake but oh well, not going to change." Anyone else find that suspicious?

So early on in Day 2, after a small group of people (Divinek, DTA and Amber[light]) already vote for BB, chaoser joins in and mounts a small case against BB.
+ Show Spoiler +
And to be truthful, I don;t really believe that BrownBear is townie just from the way he's posting. For the first day he pretty much posts nothing and bandwagons with no real reason. When people point him out of it (that he voted before reading) he goes oh well, it doesn't matter now when it CLEARLY did, the vote ended 6-5. Then, after a whole DAY of people pointing fingers at him he decides to come in and post about vets claiming and basically giving horrible advice. I'm inclined to say he's mafia who fucked up the first day and now he's trying to play dumb townie. Also, his whole ramble about claiming is pushing us off the topic of Subversion's suspicious vote as well as his little statement about how mafia isn't really making mistakes.

I'm not 100% clear on my vote yet but I'm watching BrownBear for now. And I also think we should vote double lynch. It's going to be 52 hours till the next lynch give or take, you guys don't think we'll have more than enough information then?

After a page or two a LOT of people jump on the bandwagon. It's uncanny. Chaoser realises that if BB is lynched and he flips town then things will look bad for him, so he switches his vote to Subversion, another bandwagon being formed at the time. It's funny, after using that argument against BB he immediately switches to Subversion after seeing the possibility that he might be labeled as mafia (note: someone actually said that the '3rd/4th person on the bandwagon tends to be mafia' and could have affected chaoser's thoughts). The argument he uses against Subversion is one that has already gained traction from BC/Protractinium and so it's easy to ride with.

Pandain then mounts an argument against chaoser, who responds by responding to each and every point. I believe they continue this argument via PM and sort it out there and Pandain drops his case on chaoser (I attribute this to Pandain being new to this game and not being very good at picking out lies/deceit etc.). Anyway, what does chaoser do now? Of course, he abstains. Oh, the joy of not really voting for anyone.

A common trait of mafia is that they won't contribute too much in the accusations etc. early on. They will however, try and 'appear' to be useful by posting stuff that doesn't really cause them any risk in any way (ie. pointing at someone of being scum). They will often side with someone else or pick on a player that seems to be causing a ruckus which won't be seen as suspicious. In addition to this, scum will go to great lengths to defend themselves. Think about it (directed at newer players), if you are scum you are much more willing to come back to this thread and try to shake off any accusations against you. This is why RVS is quite helpful in smaller games. Often scum will 'lurk' meaning they'll browse around, read everything but won't post too much in order to stay under the radar. However, accusing them and voting for them will force them to come out and defend themselves profusely. We can see this in DTA, he was town and everyone started voting for him. He didn't reply in the thread for a looooooong time (I actually pointed this out but I was ignored /yay), indicating that he was in fact, not lurking but actually AWOL, which is a townie trait.

Chaoser falls into the above mafia category. He immediately comes out of his 'useful/informative' shell and starts defending himself a LOT. His posts start becoming a lot of the 'discussion' going on. This continues for a long time, only defending himself and never accusing anyone asides from the occasional "your arguments are weak, why are you trying to get me lynched so bad? Are you scum?" type of argument. Now it's actually really painful to go through skimming page by page but the general trend I see right now is that a lot of people start jumping on the chaoser bandwagon. It's funny, he votes for DTA because he's getting a lot of votes for him. He then states:
From reading this, I'll change my vote to Subversion even though that means I'll 100% die.

Darth, if you wanna help me, you could switch it over too and I think he'll be first.

##unvote
##vote Subversion

Look at this from a scum perspective. He knows DTA is town. He knows that if DTA is lynched then he'll get an even worse image than before. So what does he do? He tries to side with DTA to lynch someone else that already has a lot of people voting for him. This is actually a good play by mafia as he had already taken the side of voting for Subversion earlier so if questioned, he could retaliate by saying "I already had my suspicions on Subversion before!"

+ Show Spoiler +
On an unrelated side note, I find it funny how people are so quick to link me to Subversion (tree.hugger especially) because I defended him a bit whilst nobody links me to DTA's town and Hyperbola's town when I actually gave them proper defenses. Quite ridiculous imo.


Blah blah DTA ends up getting lynched (one of the final votes by chaoser, although it could be argued that he did it to save himself) and ends up flipping town.

I know I've always been wary of chaoser but I'd like everyone to read my analysis of him. I'm not going to analyse Night 3 'cause that was just a big spam fest and lots of people probably have an ill image of me now. I'd just like you all to trust me for once (I was right on hyperbola/DTA even though it doesn't mean anything, yes I know) and vote for chaoser. I would also like to mention that I believe infundlibsuvxkum and chaoser are linked but that discussion can be saved for another time.
lalala
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
July 24 2010 00:48 GMT
#1759
^ Totally failed the spoiler tag.
lalala
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
July 24 2010 00:51 GMT
#1760
Oh and I guess I forgot to mention:

Chaoser joins infundilbusxum in his accusation against me (during the spam/flame war). Notice how chaoser never actually fully accused me by himself even though I was so against him? He's too careful to try and start something against me because that would give him even more negative light when I don't flip red. But with his mate at his side and my gaining a bad image from my 'anger', he takes the opportunity to cause me some trouble.
lalala
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