EPTWhere are the jeep tells pointing out I'm scum?
Where is it MAN POST IT.
Team Melee Mini Mafia - Page 36
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Where are the jeep tells pointing out I'm scum? Where is it MAN POST IT. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
LOL. IF YOU HAD BOTHERED FOLLOWING THE CONVERSATION, YOU'D KNOW THAT THE THIRD VOTE IN THE RVS PHASE THAT BILL MURRAY WAS TALKING ABOUT IS A JEEP TELL. THANKS FOR ADMITTING YOU ARENT DOING ANYTHING MORE THAN BEING AN ANNOYING PISSANT. As for the posts you're looking for, I already pointed you to them :3. Now be a big boy and read my posts instead of getting your slobbery vagina tears all over the mafia thread. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On June 26 2010 13:41 L wrote: Where are the jeep tells pointing out you're scum? LOL. IF YOU HAD BOTHERED FOLLOWING THE CONVERSATION, YOU'D KNOW THAT THE THIRD VOTE IN THE RVS PHASE THAT BILL MURRAY WAS TALKING ABOUT IS A JEEP TELL. THANKS FOR ADMITTING YOU ARENT DOING ANYTHING MORE THAN BEING AN ANNOYING PISSANT. As for the posts you're looking for, I already pointed you to them :3. Now be a big boy and read my posts instead of getting your slobbery vagina tears all over the mafia thread. Got ya! Here is the tell right here: http://67.222.17.61/wiki/index.php?title=JEEP's_Tells_for_Finding_Mafia # Third person on a wagon is likely to be mafia (+15) So if you are using this as a basis for me being scum show me where I'm the third vote on a wagon. Go ahead. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 26 2010 13:48 Ace wrote: Got ya! Here is the tell right here: http://67.222.17.61/wiki/index.php?title=JEEP's_Tells_for_Finding_Mafia So if you are using this as a basis for me being scum show me where I'm the third vote on a wagon. Go ahead. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=131987¤tpage=23#451 Got ya! Ok if anyone has any fucking sense about what RVS is, and the dumb "3rd voter on a wagon is scum" theory then read Bill Murray's latest posts. Forget bum/laxer - we've got some straight up ridiculous logic right in front of us. Its not a random theory. Its a jeep tell. You tried to hound bill on his 'faulty logic', but he was pulling one of the most standard pieces of analysis. Weak Ace. Now you're thinking I'm applying the Jeep tell to you? Herp Derp. I'm talking about the You/Bill spat, champ. Get with the times. Get those cataracts removed so you can read the text in front of you before getting smug. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
Please reread the last two-three pages if not the entire game. I'm going to get some sleep, if I don't you'll just keep the spam up. | ||
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johnnyspazz
Taiwan1470 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On June 26 2010 13:57 L wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=131987¤tpage=23#451 Got ya! Its not a random theory. Its a jeep tell. You tried to hound bill on his 'faulty logic', but he was pulling one of the most standard pieces of analysis. Weak Ace. Now you're thinking I'm applying the Jeep tell to you? Herp Derp. I'm talking about the You/Bill spat, champ. Get with the times. Get those cataracts removed so you can read the text in front of you before getting smug. It's me saying that Bill Murray was WRONG and he was. He didn't even know that the RVS doesn't just end whenever he feels it does. Hell people still didn't even vote at that point. I told you that tell is outdated. In fact here let's go back look at past games (not taking out the strike marks): MM 3: nemY: (3) Chezinu Ace Vivi57 Amber[Light]: (3) redtooth Ace Chezinu Amber[Light] Scamp Vivi57 Chezinu Scamp: (1) redtooth Chezinu redtooth The "theory" holds true in 1 out of 3 cases. Chezinu was scum. In the other cases the third voter was town. MM2: vx70GTOJudgexv: (5) RebirthOfLeGenD Ace nemY mikeymoo Chezinu Malongo: (4) Zato-1 vx70GTOJudgexv L HeavOnEarth Chezinu mikeymoo: (1) Vivi57 Scamp Chezinu Chezinu 1 out of 3 again! MM2 continued: Chezinu: (3) Ace vx70GTOJudgexv mikeymoo mikeymoo: (6) RebirthOfLeGend Chezinu Scamp Vivi57 Zato-1 L 1 out of 2! MM1: JimTudor: 3 Foolishness Pyrrhuloxia Qatol SatuoxKisei 6 Foolishness Qatol Chezinu Zato-1 Infundibulum Pyrrhuloxia Infundibulum 5 Foolishness Qatol Pyrr SugiuraMidori Zato-1 Vivi57 3 Pyrr Qatol Foolishness Zato-1 1 for 4. I just listed 3 Mini Mafia games where the Jeep tell would be best applied since they are in similar structure to this game. And like I told BM he was wrong and did not understand the tell - the #3 isn't the issue. The basis behind it was where scum would likely feel safe to vote without being blamed but looking active: the results from these tests? Out of 12 listed vote checks a whopping THREE fit the theory. Yes a 25% chance. Pitiful. Like I said I know Bill Murray was misusing stuff he read on MS. If you want to take one of worst players on this forum's word over one of the greatest Mafia players of all time then do so: but don't be surprised when I call you out for being wrong. Guess what? You just got proved wrong again. GG scum. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Ace. If L isn't scum, I'm voting for you, sorry bro. Everyone else: reread and make your own decisions. | ||
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johnnyspazz
Taiwan1470 Posts
basically L says whenever ace accused T2 of bad play, that is considered throwing shit on them but ace is saying that was him just scum hunting and pointing out how badly T2 was playing. i mean this is what they're mostly arguing about. i think it would be VERY helpful to get DTA's thoughts on this since he is ace's teammate. | ||
flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
L, are you really doing this? If you're town, you're wasting all of our time. First of all, Ace's argument is pretty solid compared to yours. Actually, after the first 2-3 (recent) posts from both of you, you guys just kinda started the name-calling kind of stuff. Didn't I say this earlier this game? You two are so... funny lol =p. Earlier I tried to call a truce between you two because I thought you were town. But now, considering how hard you're pushing to lynch us, and on what I see as mostly lies regarding Ace's play, I'm starting to think that you're mafia. Ace has been saying this all along, but I gave you the benefit of the doubt so to speak. Anyway, tapping out for the night. You'll see my thoughts in the vote thread. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 26 2010 14:17 Ace wrote: It's me saying that Bill Murray was WRONG and he was. He didn't even know that the RVS doesn't just end whenever he feels it does. Hell people still didn't even vote at that point. I told you that tell is outdated. In fact here let's go back look at past games (not taking out the strike marks): MM 3: The "theory" holds true in 1 out of 3 cases. Chezinu was scum. In the other cases the third voter was town. That's not entirely true. Look at the voters on the Nemy and Scamp lists. The scamp list has redtooth twice; The vote list didn't even hit 3 individual members. , this... isn't the list for MM3. The list is here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=110491¤tpage=2 Of the final vote placements, there is only 1 player who is the third member on a train. It is Chez as mafia. Of the vote placements as they came, Chez is also third in the same vote train, and redtooth was third on a train against Chez himself but switched. So in MM3, either the efficiency of the tell on day 1 is 100 or 50%. Forging your data is bad news too. MM2: 1 out of 3 again! Again, if you go and look at the actual remainder votes, you got them wrong. Again you didn't even pick the right votes; http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=109318¤tpage=2 At the bottom of the page. There are actually only 2 people who finish day 1 in third, Nemy and I. Nemy is mafia. I am not. Chez on the mikeymoo 'bus' sits there for a grand total of 4 hours with nearly no activity in the voting thread and switches away. So again, 50 or 33% here depending on if you're using resultant or running totals. You getting the votelists here wrong is particularly odd given that you were the one pushing to get judge killed and the Zato post we are referencing in the thread is from this game. MM2 continued: 1 out of 2! Awesome MM1: 1 for 4. Slight problem. Only 1 of these is a day 1. Ignoring that, however, the SatouKisei votes are against a mafia member, and those aren't vote lists from the start of the game when RVS and random wagoning is important. The Vivi wagon, for instance, was your game ending win lynch for mafia; who cares about blending in if you can just end the game there. Cutting those two out, we're back to 50% ... In a mafia game wherein the random probability of hitting mafia is 2/9, or 22.2%, the 3rd player Jeep tell has outperformed random picking in EVERY SINGLE GAME, even when you ignore context like you have. I'll go over this with 2 objections to what you're trying to say here: 1) The first is that you weren't trying to argue that BM was 'wrong'. You had no idea what bill murray was talking about in the first place. The post of your I linked has you overtly going "what the fuck is RVS". Read bill's earlier posts; he uses RVS perfectly well. It stands for random voting stage. You didn't attempt to build an argument around why the Jeep tell was wrong; There was not a single shred of evidence posted by you prior to this post, on day 2 after BM already flipped green that you put up against the RVS. Instead you just painted Bill red. Its perfectly fine to disagree with his position and attempt to take it down, but to make the leap from suggesting a jeep tell as a method of analysis to going straight red isn't a critique. Its making an excuse for painting someone red. Zato's analysis of you puts that as your main goal as mafia, and its served you well.. 2) The second objection is that you're actually wrong. The games you've shown actually prove BM's point. I've put my notes in bold above. The second point is actually rather irrelevant. Look at how discussion on this page has gone; Ace tries to imply that I've been attempting to use the Jeep tell on him and intentionally confuses issues to push people away from the initial characterization Zato made of Ace. Go look at MM2 and read the analysis and the posts linked, its very informative. And now, to sleep for sures because I gotta get up in 5.5 hours, dawg. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Out for the night, cya guys. | ||
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YellowInk
United States578 Posts
On June 26 2010 09:45 L wrote: work stuff I'm not blaming you for your work situation. It's totally understandable. The problem is that it's indistinguishable from a mafia choosing to be inactive over a particular time window. On a more important note, you picked up that both teams 1 and 2 pushed against T9, voted against T9, and are now both dead. Radfield + the BM/Chez team both tried to bus 9. That's partially why I found it so incredibly strange that Korynne would flip and try to 'hold' the result at BM/Chez if her partner was instrumental in starting the 9 train. The interesting part is that the 9 train was actually made in majority by people jumping off the 7 train. That means that it isn't even just a question of T1+2 bussed against 9. You also need to examine their rhetoric against 7. The fact that 7 does not post unless they're being put on the stove is very, very scummy. Agreed, I hadn't thought of this point, but quite valid. Still very soft evidence, but worth thinking about. Considering Team 7's continued silence, my vote remains. I would encourage others to do the same at this point. Lay on the pressure, make them post or die. There's absolutely no reason they should be inactive as town. Once they talk we can make fair judgments. If they are scum, they may remain quiet in hopes that the L vs Ace argument takes precidence over their inactivity. On June 26 2010 05:11 bumatlarge wrote: I hear what you're saying yellow, and expected it ( in a good way). I agree on alot of what you say, but I personally have been a bit more of a town vibe from T9 based on posting. Most of the inactive teams are still too vague to judge by votes. Inactivity is still a problem and probably will be through the game, but any thoughts on team 4? Im sure you have some opinions of darth after the other game. He seems to state that his posting wold be exactly the same whether hes mafia or town. I know you were in pm contact for a bit and trusted what he had said for the most part. Your word would outclass mine in this regard. I know yo generally feel that game was a bit nooby, but I doubt you let that distrupt your messages to darth. The thing about strong players is that they have actively worked to eliminate tells. Skilled scum appear to be town in almost everything they do on the surface. Good scum rarely get caught on day 1 or 2 because they simply don't mess up the easy stuff. The way to figure it out is to watch their trends, changes in style from one day to the next, or see if their overall plan or choices just happens to have worked against the town more often than seems fair. This is how I was looking to catch DTA in XXVI and this is what I'm watching for here. It's how I'd look at any vet. Unfortunately mini mafia is short so this is tougher. This is part of what can make it difficult to fairly read scum on noobs. Noobs mess up the simple stuff. You make a post that includes bad strategy you're going to get nailed on it (looking at you bum). How does one distinguish noob play from scum play? By not permitting people to get away with noob play. Noobs typically work at cleaning up the obvious stuff quickly and get up to the medium level. You always have to nail people for providing bad information. I don't really have much of use to add to the L vs Ace argument directly. I havn't commented on it at all despite this fire burning from early in day 1. To clear up a few things I see as fact, I believe Caller was modkilled unintentionally - I do not think this was an attempt at strategic modkill. I think that Caller deliberately remained quiet for a reason that cannot be clearly discerned at this moment. I read the back and forth bickering and I see logic and fallacy in both of their attacks. For both of them, I see errors and truth in both what they say and how they say it. I could be convinced of one being mafia or of both being town. Considering the heat of it, I think it is fair to say that it is unlikely that they are both mafia and it'd be worth betting the game on this. If we assume that one is mafia, then we should all spend our energy trying to convince each other as to whose arguments are better, come to as much consesus as we can manage, cast our votes, and hope we hit red. If we find town, we're all but comitted to lynching the other. Now, if both are town, we lose the game because both L and Ace saw scum in each other. It should be immediately apparent that this all comes down to whether we believe one of them is mafia. If we're convinced at least one of them is, it may be worth pursuing this path. If the assumption holds true, and if it's 50/50 on who we lynch, it's 50/50 that we come out ahead or end up in lylo to find the last mafia team on day 4. In the end, all these assumptions get us nowhere. Essentially the last two paragraphs say that you should vote where you believe your vote belongs. + Show Spoiler + Surprising, huh? You should only vote for one if you believe that they are scum and not because you're going to rationalize to yourself that if you hit town then the other must be scum. Personally, the arguing has not convinced me to vote for either L or Ace. My vote remains on Team 7 for the reasons I stated above - it's seems much more likely to produce good results than getting involved in L vs Ace. If one of them is scum, let their actions speak to it more strongly after we have another day or two behind us. If team 7 gets active, I read them to be town, and I think L vs Ace is more interesting than putting my vote back on bum, I may do so. I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. Also, a DT might be investigating and have found one of them to be town and could be fingering tomorrow. Or maybe the DT investigated somewhere else day 1. I would say that these two are excellent targets for investigation if we have a DT among us. | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
watchamacallits that are the first letter of each word, acronyms | ||
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Nikon
Bulgaria5710 Posts
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + My response in bold On June 26 2010 11:13 Divinek wrote: well since lax did nikon, and i wanted to look at that team i guess ill go more indepth at zyrre wtf is this? I'm leaning towards him, why leaning, why not cast the first vote? Might it look bad? Is bm really that confusing? Are there any original ideas in this post? Nope, just agreeing with someone and leaning towards someone we now know is town 100%. It was early day 1, and yes I'm terrible on day 1. This is why I wanted to wait longer to make up my mind. he already explained this but i still think it's something to keep in the back of your mind, why wouldnt he just pm flamewheel. I dont actually know the answer to this question myself but why wouldnt he? scum radar alert! Why would townies have to go with weak arguments? Townies could be just as retarded and go with anything when there's so little info, we have good enough players that can make good enough arguments as it is. Yes, townies could accuse and vote early as well, therefore mafia can do it without raising suspicion. And the point of it is that the stronger arguments come out later on day 1 because of the amount of posts. If you don't have any convictions until the end of day 1 and then ignore what other people said that can be considered mafia-style. Blah blah mind games saying im not red could be red etc loop his arguments and plans still feel 'off', i already addressed this before, that has to be the worst logic ive ever seen for casting a vote, and as we all know now, we know this team is green even if they acted stupid so surely a red would go 'oh i could vote for the crazy town team and it wont look bad' I posted my initial suspicion when BM and YI had had an argument the length of about 2-3 posts, that seems risky to do if I was red. Yes, I probably should've quoted exactly what I was referring to, but I didn't. HE CASTED HIS VOTE AFTER GOING AGAINST WHAT HE JUST SAID HE WOULD HAVE TO DO IF HE WERE TO VOTE AN ACTIVE PLAYER. I quoted BM's lynching plan and explained why I thought it was wrong. I guess I could've quoted the continuation of YI/BM and other bashing on him, but as I posted right after reading the whole thread I felt it was obvious what I was referring to(I said myself it was badly written). meh some mind game stuff you can pull out of this, but it's his explanation for it. Simple i guess doesnt really give any reason other than, oh im siding with people that obviously some of them have to be town so it makes me look more pro town but i really have no reasons of my own note: STILL NO REASON FOR VOTE, just he 'felt' off Same as I responded to above still no come back from my attacks at his reasoning, just empty defenses openly admitting just band wagoning on a vote, though i guess this isnt the worst thing in the world for the first vote, but still these are pretty shallow and weak reasons for a vote. ok fuck you. This is the second post where you're like 'this team is very likely to be mafia' and now you're adding well another team might be, IMO, WHAT THE FUCK IS YOUR OPINION? You didnt state any reason for saying why bums team might be mafia. You're just trying to throw in little jabs. I agree my posting was shit, I'm just looking at it from my perspective too much and not from others. Which is why I didn't quote a lot of stuff. Voting staying on bm for obvious reasons, if they are so obvious can you please point them out? Sigh this is looking so weak to me. Plus my read on bums team is quite green at this point so it makes me think you KNOW both of those teams are green and you'd be fine killing either of them The obvious reason was that if I changed my vote at that point, my team would have the most votes, why would I want to get lynched? switching your vote cause others are, not for logical reasons, not for something you truly see as supsicious. POST some content man I was not switching with the main bandwagon of accusation, since more people we're switching off my team I felt safe too switch and not be lynched first post with any reasoning behind anything. But this stuff isnt backed up by a vote, it's just well this person could be mafia and someone who doesnt seem like mafia is going after non mafia stuff seems unlikely confusing emptyness. This post was about 4 hours before Day 2 STARTED, I dont want to vote that early since I dont see a point too it. Especially since Ace and L were already in full debate mode. Well until anything else comes up for me im voting team 7. Could people tell me what they think, is my first level reasoning too weak here? Are these adequate scum reads? Both him and his team mate have been among the more inactive people, and both of them have voted for the only two teams i really think are green, one of which is now dead. | ||
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