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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 15 2010 04:29 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 04:24 citi.zen wrote:On June 15 2010 01:48 Radfield wrote:
Wow wow wow. Either an amazing shot Citizen, or you're mafia and hoping to get all our roleclaims and allay all suspicion.
An extremely ballsy move actually, considering that if L flipped green, then we would certianly use the next lynch on you. Doubly hurting the town.
I'm still very ok with lynching AFJ, but if people don't agree I'm fine with that.
List of fairly inactive players:
vivi57
redtooth
RoL
Ohn
I say we go after RoL first. He strikes me as moderately scummy, and is the scummiest looking player who voted for Jspazz. And to this... what % would you assign to the likelihood of me being mafia? Why would it make sense for me to kill the GF right now instead of a goon if I wanted credibility? Furthermore, there was no immediate danger of being lynched for either me or L, why not save the hit for later when it could be decisive /end the game? You know I of all people love a good conspiracy theory, but give me a break - this one makes no sense. I've been thinking about the Dvig all game. It is like the perfect role! Once you use the hit, it makes no sense for either mafia or town to kill the Dvig no matter what align the Dvig has. Dvig is still a black role, right? If you look at the OP the mafia count only includes roleblock and/or GF. This means if there was a mafia Dvig then he wouldn't be considered part of the "mafia" and would only want the mafia to win.. So I'm watching you citizen though I would never kill you... lol.. not that I'm a watcher or anything... <.< >.>
I'm pretty sure you're reading it wrong chez. The dayvig role is black so that we don't know if the dayvig ended up being town or mafia aligned. It's not 12T v 4M v 1DV. It's 13 town vs 4 mafia no matter what. And someone, whether town or mafia, got the dayvig role
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On June 15 2010 04:38 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 04:29 Chezinu wrote:On June 15 2010 04:24 citi.zen wrote:On June 15 2010 01:48 Radfield wrote:
Wow wow wow. Either an amazing shot Citizen, or you're mafia and hoping to get all our roleclaims and allay all suspicion.
An extremely ballsy move actually, considering that if L flipped green, then we would certianly use the next lynch on you. Doubly hurting the town.
I'm still very ok with lynching AFJ, but if people don't agree I'm fine with that.
List of fairly inactive players:
vivi57
redtooth
RoL
Ohn
I say we go after RoL first. He strikes me as moderately scummy, and is the scummiest looking player who voted for Jspazz. And to this... what % would you assign to the likelihood of me being mafia? Why would it make sense for me to kill the GF right now instead of a goon if I wanted credibility? Furthermore, there was no immediate danger of being lynched for either me or L, why not save the hit for later when it could be decisive /end the game? You know I of all people love a good conspiracy theory, but give me a break - this one makes no sense. I've been thinking about the Dvig all game. It is like the perfect role! Once you use the hit, it makes no sense for either mafia or town to kill the Dvig no matter what align the Dvig has. Dvig is still a black role, right? If you look at the OP the mafia count only includes roleblock and/or GF. This means if there was a mafia Dvig then he wouldn't be considered part of the "mafia" and would only want the mafia to win.. So I'm watching you citizen though I would never kill you... lol.. not that I'm a watcher or anything... <.< >.> I'm pretty sure you're reading it wrong chez. The dayvig role is black so that we don't know if the dayvig ended up being town or mafia aligned. It's not 12T v 4M v 1DV. It's 13 town vs 4 mafia no matter what. And someone, whether town or mafia, got the dayvig role
Your reading it wrong! With your logical there is no mafia Dvig because then the mafia count on the OP would say (Roleblocker and/or Godfather and/or Dvig). Take that you Mods! Give us answers!
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
"You are aligned with either the town or the mafia, and can be secure with the fact that your shot cannot be blocked by either medics or roleblockers"
The Dvig is either town or mafia. Not his own alignment.
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On June 15 2010 04:49 Radfield wrote:
"You are aligned with either the town or the mafia, and can be secure with the fact that your shot cannot be blocked by either medics or roleblockers"
The Dvig is either town or mafia. Not his own alignment.
Well, the Mods obviously messed up and told us that if there was a Dvig that he is blue. Remember how Kor said "Lack of Blue" then claimed she was talking about her blue words as a mod? The OP pretty much tells us that the Dvig is Blue since there is no indication that the Dvig can be apart of the Mafia count. lol
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Oh and look at the Day 1 post, there was a roleblocker and a blue Dvig died. We know from A5J that there is a roleblocker, thus there has to be a blue Dvig.
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Rad where did you go? I want to continue to fake argue with you.. Who is going to argue if L isn't here?
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Guys can we not sit around and discuss logistics here? There are 4 mafia, if one dies, then the count goes down by one. So if the day vig was a mafia, then mafia count would go down by one when the day vig was killed. And the death post would have day vig in red.
My post saying lack of blue meant mod font to begin with, I don't know why Chezinu has to overanalyze that stuff instead of posting real content.
Either way, please don't use the analysis of mod errors/oversight as your basis for an argument. I can't stop you, but it's just frowned upon because it was not meant to be a part of the game.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 15 2010 04:57 Chezinu wrote:
Rad where did you go? I want to continue to fake argue with you.. Who is going to argue if L isn't here?
 I'm having trouble telling if you actually believe that about the dayvig...
I was skimming through all L's posts if you must know. I'm obviously not as good as citizen though because all i really found is L arguing with foolishness rather plausibly and redtooth rather weakly.
I'm going to read through them again when i'm a little more into it though.
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On June 15 2010 05:01 Korynne wrote:
Guys can we not sit around and discuss logistics here? There are 4 mafia, if one dies, then the count goes down by one. So if the day vig was a mafia, then mafia count would go down by one when the day vig was killed. And the death post would have day vig in red.
My post saying lack of blue meant mod font to begin with, I don't know why Chezinu has to overanalyze that stuff instead of posting real content.
Either way, please don't use the analysis of mod errors/oversight as your basis for an argument. I can't stop you, but it's just frowned upon because it was not meant to be a part of the game.
Wow, a mod calling my posts not containing any content.. that's a first... I'll just analyze mod errors in PM land then like everyone else...
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Chez: I am blue, not 3rd party.
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On June 15 2010 05:03 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 04:57 Chezinu wrote:
Rad where did you go? I want to continue to fake argue with you.. Who is going to argue if L isn't here? I'm having trouble telling if you actually believe that about the dayvig... I was skimming through all L's posts if you must know. I'm obviously not as good as citizen though because all i really found is L arguing with foolishness rather plausibly and redtooth rather weakly. I'm going to read through them again when i'm a little more into it though.
What did you find was lacklustre about the redtooth/L arguement
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
It just wasn't much of an argument:
my only qualm with L's plan is that the structure of the game is forum based. that means posts come in linearly, one at a time and uneditable. what happens when there is only one medic and he roleclaims? mafia gets an easy kill in the first round with our most valuable player. if you think about it, the likelihood of 2 medics being in this game is VERY low since it would essentially be GG once they figure each other out (mafia just can't do shit). even with a roleblocker, i doubt that Incognito would create such a town-favored setup.
This was the only thing redtooth posted that related to L's plan.
All L responded with was
On June 10 2010 13:35 L wrote: Well, maybe try reading the plan before posting.
L aslo argued with both AFJ and yourself as well. Makes me think AFJ is probably not mafia. I hate it when that happens.
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Overall L played this game really badly. As Chez said, we should be able to recover a lot of information from his trail. For example, what was going through his head when he claimed that me flipping red would imply foolishness is red? Was it just a way to confuse the town with the added bonus of helping me get lynched? Or was it purposely trying to derail the current conversations?
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I think he was just trying to confuse the town. He claimed he had private information and both dt's checked you out so you were a very easy target for him.
can we agree on a target before hand so we aren't confused about who we are going to lynch the next day so all our blue roles can check each other out and hopefully help the town.
These are the candidates for the next day lynch, Vivi and ohn. We can obviously change as the game flows but I want to make sure we are all on the same page for when the night action comes in.
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I have a theory about why I was roleblocked that I haven't revealed yet. Here goes:
MooCow and Ludwig both roleclaimed detective and said they'd investigate me. Meeple said he'd flip a coin to watch ludwig or tree.hugger. tree.hugger did not say who he would be tracking.
So why was I role blocked? My answer is that one of Meeple, ludwig, and moocow are actually the role blocker and feigned watching or investigating me by role blocking me (a tracker or watcher wouldn't be able to tell the difference).
Further (though it's much weaker evidence), I PM'd L a fake theory I came up with about why he thought foolishness would flip red if I did, and L's response was that I was on the right track (that he didn't believe me I was roleblocked). I think this was an attempt to throw me off the trail and only think about cases where I was not role blocked.
All of this makes me feel pretty confident that my theory is correct. The question is, which of Meeple, ludwig, moocow are the infiltrating mafioso?
Let's look at Meeple: if he's mafia, he would be required to pretend to visit ludwig instead of tree.hugger, else he would be forced to reveal who visited tree.hugger which is bad for mafia (even if he came up with a story of 2 people visited him, the medic and mafioso). But, if he said he visited ludwig, then why was it necessary to fake doing so by role blocking me? My conclusion is that meeple is probably clean, although it's a convenient coincidence that he happened to not watch tree.hugger (if meeple really is clean, the mafia took a huge risk to hit tree hugger last night).
That leaves me to believe that either ludwig or moocow is the infiltrating mafioso. The fact that having a veteran in this game is highly unlikely means that there should be no townie faking detective, and I also find it highly unlikely that there are 2 detectives in the game. My gut feeling is that ludwig is mafia due to his posting behavior, some PM exchanges I had with him, and the fact that he posted me as townie instead of town-aligned (which is all a role check comes back as in this game) which means he's not as familiar with his "role" as he should be.
However, I am not certain. So how can we resolve this mess?
We can resolve it through tonight's blue actions: MooCow and Ludwig each role check a different non-inactive (we'll need them to respond). Meeple watches whoever one of those is to be role checked. Obviously hatter/medic will not visit any of the people being role checked.
Then, we will hear back about about our detective and watcher findings. Also, each of the people being role checked will say whether they got role blocked.
If neither got role blocked, then we look at meeple's findings: if meeple saw that person get visited, then the detective who was supposed to check the other person is the mafioso and we lynch him. If meeple did not see that person get visited, then the detective who was supposed to check the person meeple was watching is the mafioso.
If one of the people got role blocked, then again we look at meeple's findings: if meeple watched the person who claims to be roleblocked, we catch the mafioso. if meeple watched the other person, the detective who was supposed to watch the other person is the mafioso.
Of course, we get the extra benefit of getting the role checks back, which will prove useful once we know which detective is the mafioso.
I would like to note that this plan will fail hard for us if it turns out that none of the three I mentioned are mafia. However, if there is a mafioso in the blue group (seems likely due to evidence), this plan is guaranteed to catch him (with the worst case being meeple is the mafioso, and we end up losing a detective).
Thoughts?
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So I started to think about what a5j just posted. Combine that with the fact that L's claiming being discussed before he made the post would throw all sorts of timing tells off. It also makes perfect sense that a mafioso would claim blue early on to encourage more blues claiming in the future.
So we know the first blue claimer is dead and was blue. The second is ludwig, a prime suspect. Then:
On June 10 2010 17:38 LuDwig- wrote:
I was wondering...
Writing down here our roles is quite a dumb thing -___-
I have played only one game and in that game the PM was not allowed (BANG BANG) so I supposed that also in this game PMs were not allowed..
But when i recived a PM 5 minutes ago i check the rules and O.O (<-my expression)
So don't post your role on the thread but PM L!
We have to decide if L can be trustable or not!
If he is townie he can tell us how to move!
But if he is mafia he will get tons of info about townie and their role!
What to do?
A more experienced player can tell me his thoughts?
He wants us to *PM* L our roles rather than posting them. If that doesn't set off a million red flags, I don't know what does.
going to continue ludwig's analysis, but given that we only have a few hours before night, I'm posting this here now.
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+ Show Spoiler +On June 12 2010 03:01 LuDwig- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2010 01:06 MooCow wrote:
I'm going to shake things up a bit.
If there's one detective in this game it's ME! I'm the real Detective, not sure about sanity yet.
I didn't role claim etc because I was waiting to see if LuDwig would screw up but he didn't really post that much. haahah quite easy to claim Detective when we are sending not claiming people to a corner .__. How to discover who is lying? The plan is quite easy! [blue Tracker checks this night me or moocow. If one of us is lying tracker will knows that we have visited nobody during the night! So we will know for sure who is lying MooCow...i suppose you have not problem following this plan right?
BRILLIANT. They set up a scenario where they're guarenteed the tracker kill (noone double claims as tracker) and use the tracker to verify ludwig. Based on his other posting, I also doubt he could think of that plan by himself (or he could and he's just playing dumb).
yeah, I'm not doing a good job of objectively reading ludwig, but he seems visibly upset when citizen hits L, criticizing the shot.
But yeah, my vote is on ludwig for sure
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On June 15 2010 07:38 Vivi57 wrote:So I started to think about what a5j just posted. Combine that with the fact that L's claiming being discussed before he made the post would throw all sorts of timing tells off. It also makes perfect sense that a mafioso would claim blue early on to encourage more blues claiming in the future. So we know the first blue claimer is dead and was blue. The second is ludwig, a prime suspect. Then: Show nested quote +On June 10 2010 17:38 LuDwig- wrote:
I was wondering...
Writing down here our roles is quite a dumb thing -___-
I have played only one game and in that game the PM was not allowed (BANG BANG) so I supposed that also in this game PMs were not allowed..
But when i recived a PM 5 minutes ago i check the rules and O.O (<-my expression)
So don't post your role on the thread but PM L!
We have to decide if L can be trustable or not!
If he is townie he can tell us how to move!
But if he is mafia he will get tons of info about townie and their role!
What to do?
A more experienced player can tell me his thoughts? He wants us to *PM* L our roles rather than posting them. If that doesn't set off a million red flags, I don't know what does. going to continue ludwig's analysis, but given that we only have a few hours before night, I'm posting this here now.
Oh jesus christ I completely forgot he said that. I bet the mafia were banking on L being the godfather and "immune" from role checks and hoping he would be the blue circle leader.
Let's not go overboard and lynch ludwig right now, but instead let's go ahead and lynch RoL and discuss the plan for night actions I proposed.
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On June 15 2010 07:52 Vivi57 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 12 2010 03:01 LuDwig- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2010 01:06 MooCow wrote:
I'm going to shake things up a bit.
If there's one detective in this game it's ME! I'm the real Detective, not sure about sanity yet.
I didn't role claim etc because I was waiting to see if LuDwig would screw up but he didn't really post that much. haahah quite easy to claim Detective when we are sending not claiming people to a corner .__. How to discover who is lying? The plan is quite easy! [blue Tracker checks this night me or moocow. If one of us is lying tracker will knows that we have visited nobody during the night! So we will know for sure who is lying MooCow...i suppose you have not problem following this plan right? BRILLIANT. They set up a scenario where they're guarenteed the tracker kill (noone double claims as tracker) and use the tracker to verify ludwig. Based on his other posting, I also doubt he could think of that plan by himself (or he could and he's just playing dumb). yeah, I'm not doing a good job of objectively reading ludwig, but he seems visibly upset when citizen hits L, criticizing the shot. But yeah, my vote is on ludwig for sure [/blue]
Pretty interesting read so far and good find imo.
I'll re-check your stuff and post my analysis of him but it does look like LuDwig is more mafia like to me now.
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On June 15 2010 07:52 Vivi57 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 12 2010 03:01 LuDwig- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2010 01:06 MooCow wrote:
I'm going to shake things up a bit.
If there's one detective in this game it's ME! I'm the real Detective, not sure about sanity yet.
I didn't role claim etc because I was waiting to see if LuDwig would screw up but he didn't really post that much. haahah quite easy to claim Detective when we are sending not claiming people to a corner .__. How to discover who is lying? The plan is quite easy! [blue Tracker checks this night me or moocow. If one of us is lying tracker will knows that we have visited nobody during the night! So we will know for sure who is lying MooCow...i suppose you have not problem following this plan right? BRILLIANT. They set up a scenario where they're guarenteed the tracker kill (noone double claims as tracker) and use the tracker to verify ludwig. Based on his other posting, I also doubt he could think of that plan by himself (or he could and he's just playing dumb). yeah, I'm not doing a good job of objectively reading ludwig, but he seems visibly upset when citizen hits L, criticizing the shot. But yeah, my vote is on ludwig for sure [/blue]
Hmmm, so ludwig role blocked me in case meeple watched me (even though meeple said he'd flip a coin between tree hugger and ludwig) or tree.hugger tracked ludwig and was saved by a medic?
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EPT
