EPTMTF isn't bulletproof, as that's not a role in this game. -_-. I'm assuming that a medic has vouched to him so he'll have +1 townie in his book. Good place to start =p.
TL Mafia XXVI - Page 62
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
MTF isn't bulletproof, as that's not a role in this game. -_-. I'm assuming that a medic has vouched to him so he'll have +1 townie in his book. Good place to start =p. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
On June 11 2010 05:16 bumatlarge wrote: Well considering you had to vote, you could bring up reasons to suspect any of the lists. Its the switching and not switching thats important. I like darth's reasoning a bit but, there seemed to be alot more then 6 people switching. And Deuce was a useless lynch IMO, he voted for himself for gods sake, what mafia would do that. If you start bringing up clues and such on him, then we can start being suspicious, but wondering why people switched off him because he was a lazy apathetic towny in their eyes doesnt seem logical. And it's nice to see inspection of the people I posted, so I'm going to throw crate and darth in with the next post I do with previous clue found on them, because Im losing it (maybe I should drink more when im analyzing lol). I'll get to yellow in a bit. Also, why MTF can avoid suspicion because he is a bulletproof role? I think it's still relatively up in the air until his medic can find a way to vouch for him. I'm just entirely against ruling anyone out as mafia. To start, I'll say that I support your initiative to look at the high-profile people that nobody is publicly analyzing. Granted, I think you're super-paranoid, but one should certainly never leave the possibility out of any given person being Mafia. :p As for why YellowInk, Darth, crate, and others are saying that I'm most likely town, just look at the evidence. Day 2 and Day 3, Mafia only kills two people. Both nights I tell town that I got hit, without anybody contesting it (I wish someone had). To assume that I am lying is to assume that Mafia-side would stack two hits on one of their targets each of those nights, with either the intention of overpowering a medic and/or getting town to trust me. Both of those reasons have problems: 1. If trying to overpower a medic, why stack on those particular people? Nobody that has died thus far was likely to be protected by a medic. Three of the four were only semi-active and AFJ was unlikely to get medic protection due to his role in the MooCow lynching. (Should be noted that this was a smart move.) 2. Why waste kills (2 more town/blue roles dead by this point) when all that is gained by having me claim to have been hit really does is expose my posting habits to more scrutiny? Answer is, it doesn't, unless you think Mafia-side is trying to play in the most complicated way possible. It's been my experience that, other than selective PMs trying to persuade people, Mafia tend to stay as uncomplicated as possible, so that they don't get their members trapped in the open. I know this isn't going to convince you, Bumatlarge, but I'm putting it out there anyway for those following the conversation. | ||
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YellowInk
United States578 Posts
BrownBear Littlechava Misder TheGilaboy Zeks Our last five mafia? All town? | ||
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
I'd throw 3 lions in there for someone too. | ||
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YellowInk
United States578 Posts
We need some town to start speaking up about these folk - the mafia are surely content to stay quiet. Once you get going, they'll have to present as well and this is where we profit. | ||
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littlechava
United States7221 Posts
Some of his recent posts: #915: Responds to my analysis. #1062 Thinks the Mafia on deuce's bandwagon would probably have stayed there because it was so well established. #1079 Waiting for new day post. #1085 Question about whether inactives will be modkilled. #1106 Posts trying to link clues to 3 Lions. Misses the stronger links outlined later on, but obviously 3 Lions is pretty likely connected to the (later) clues. #1139 Trusts DTA's drive to get onihunter lynched. #1153 Adds on to a previous post that if onihunter flips Miller instead of Mafia we can begin trusting DTA and form a town circle. #1158 Analysis post on onihunter. He uses the fact that onihunter supported lynching deuce initially and only switched to MooCow later when the bandwagon was fairly well established as evidence that deuce is probably still green. He thinks that onihunter probably only switched because the result didn't matter, and he wanted to evenly distribute Mafia votes. I disagree with this inerpretation - I think there were probably quite a few Mafia on board with MooCow's lynching. Even as onihunter said, losing MooCow as a townie would be a bigger loss than losing deuce, so I think it's likely that a lot of Mafia jumped onto the MooCow bandwagon when they realized it was a possibility. Don't know about deuce, but I feel like he probably is just a retarded townie (I guess we'll find out for sure when he's modkilled this round). #1203 Says he trusts DTA/DTA has established himself as a townie #1206 Questions whether YellowInk still thinks deuce is red. #1209/1210 He's convinced that the MooCow bandwagon was not a Mafia ploy, and deuce is green because onihunter turned against him quickly. #1213 Again says he's sure that most of the mafia were against deuce. #1214 Post about Gila bandwagon - he clears LaXer because onihunter supported his lynching early in the game, says CompX/bumatlarge are suspicious because they voted near the end. This confuses me (even though CompX is suspicious). Why would the mafia waste two votes? The only plus side is that they wouldn't be involved in the lynching of a green, so there wouldn't be much suspicion cast on them compared to the others. #1216 More about deuce's bandwagon. I'm sure there were Mafia on both bandwagons, so these points are valid. I also think that there were probably more Mafia switching over to MooCow's bandwagon when the time arose. Zeks mentioned the fact that he was with AFJ from the start, and he never switched his vote. This doesn't clear him - he could have just been a Mafia member waiting to see what happened, then when he saw AFJ make that post about MooCow, he jumped on the opportunity. Then, after pushing for MooCow's lynching constantly, the other Mafia finally "came around" and supported him. I'm still pretty sure zeks is Mafia. | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
--- @Darth (and now @littlechava too): Sure, if the mafia could just get up and choose they'd choose to lynch MooCow instead of Deuce, I'll buy that. Thing is, unless either LunarDestiny or yourself is mafia, none of the mafia would have even been considering that possibility. MooCow dying was never, ever going to happen until you [Darth] switched your vote. Your conclusion is right, there are almost assuredly mafia who voted for MooCow. But it's for the reason MTF keeps bringing up (spreading out votes is better), not for the reason you suggest. Unless, like I said, either you or LunarDestiny is mafia. --- @zeks, DCL: The wagon against Deuce was derailed by Darth. Don't mistake yourself that LunarDestiny put on the killing blow or that AFJ made the first argument and vote. Darth was a six-vote swing AND he's the mayor AND I gather he has the town's trust. Mentally remove Darth's vote-switch and go look at the voting history; there was no chance that MooCow was gonna die. And then suddenly with one swoop that at least I didn't see coming he's two votes away. And if you don't think that being elected means anything, I'll just point you to Pyrry's game where we had a half-dozen people roleclaim to Shikyo and JeeJee for no reason other than that they were elected. I gather it used to happen a lot back in the older TL games too (back when the non-new-player games had elected roles, rofl). --- @LunarDestiny: There is a total of one vote before Darth makes his announcement (which itself was ~ 7 hours after day began) ... we have absolutely no information from today's votes. Honestly the only explanation I could see for not voting for oni (assuming he's mafia like he claims) is if you're a townie who suspects Darth. If you're mafia and a figure the town trusts comes out and says "I have a roleclaim that player A (whom the town was suspicious of anyway) is mafia" ... do you really think any of the mafia are that stupid? --- @Ink: Not gonna do a full writeup, I'll just give my thoughts and a couple key reasons: BrownBear -I'd be pretty wary since I don't think I'd say he's posted anything of substance to date that others haven't said first. This is onihunter (and MooCow, for that matter, though without the "new player" bit) behavior except with what I feel is a more sketchy history (runs for office then fades out pretty hard except for a small portion of Day 2) and more words-per-post. littlechava -Not sure his clue analysis is worth anything ... he does some but doesn't seem to think that clues are the way to go. His "argument" with DCL was misunderstanding vs. misunderstanding as far as I could see; ... I really don't know. Misder -Starts off with clues, whatever, half the town did as much. Don't like the "no clue connections = don't lynch Deuce" thing. Don't like the activity patterns, though his posts do have substance. Him questioning Darth's source for oni = mafia likely hints toward town? I feel like the way he's thinking is good, but I really question his timing. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=5458482 Notes on this post specifically: If oni is not at least miller, we ask Darth for his source. If he does not provide, we lynch Darth tomorrow. If Darth does provide, we then have to determine whether Darth is red or his source is red (or whether we should just lynch them both tomorrow anyway). Thegilaboy -Flips on YellowInk with the rest of the town ... his play speaks volumes about being new but he's not flaunting it (which is good); not terribly much content but I like the things he's said when he's been the person coming up with the ideas instead of the one following everyone's directives. Definitely new, not the biggest asset for the town, but I think he's on our side. zeks -I notice his name doesn't have a capital "Z"; I feel like he's playing an awful lot like he did in Pyrry's game so I think he's town (even down to the exact same type of slip-ups). Most likely not a power role unless perhaps it's veteran. --- Also, I'm quite fine with pictures of hot chicks. Or are you just jealous that the girls are flocking to Darth and not you? :p --- @clues against me: If you guys put more stake in clues than in behavior, whatever, go vote me. Until I'm dead, I'll keep posting as I have been (time permitting). Personally the only profiles I've looked at have been the ones I've clicked to get to post histories, and I haven't even read any of the day posts except the parts in color (I guess I can thank Qatol for being a Godfather-claiming-townie-elected-mayor for those colors). But I've basically said as much before. If you think my posting has been suspect, ask me questions. Or go vote to lynch me or something, I guess. As an aside: the theme of my profile is just as much that Star Control 2 is fucking awesome (see sig, see picture) as it is about chance (and incidentally like I said earlier I didn't pick that quote because of the probability connections but because I see it as talking about arbitrary constructions that we find special for no real reason). I realize there's no reason for flamewheel to pull clues from the entirety of the profile though. | ||
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littlechava
United States7221 Posts
#159 Introduction post, says he's happy to be playing his first TL Mafia game, but he's played others before. #265 Asks if it's common for Mafia to run for elected roles, and if it is we should have more election options. How would more options help? #424 Accepts that YellowInk and Darth will win the elections, says that we should lynch inactives because a blue role would likely be active. Could be a justification for his own inactivity, trying to say that he's just inactive because he's only a green. #553 Defends his lack of activity. He says there just isn't much to say in the early game, so that's why he hadn't done anything at that point. Says he'll be posting more later. #556/557 Claims that a lot of YellowInk's posts from day 1 were mostly just about getting elected, and again states that he just wasn't interested in posting that early in the game. Says he didn't write that post to "insight ruckus". #690 He wrote a big post then apparently lost it. #692 Presents the theory that there were two Mafia involved in ElyAs' death. Says this implicates MTF. #700 Garbage post about how he thought the clues were supporting convoluted plots. Makes sure to cover himself by saying he's not definitely behind this idea. #914 Inactivity post. Votes: Darth, MooCow Reeks of Mafia to me. The little back and forth at the beginning of the game seemed reasonable enough. Then he never started posting more even when the game got more interesting. Tried to cast doubt on MTF. Voted MooCow with no explanation. Has done nothing since. | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
In addition, I don't agree with Darth about people who didn't switch after Darth not being suspicious. The mafia have to weigh the chance of looking terribly suspicious (switching) against eliminating a middle-of-the-road at best town-aligned player who's under heavy suspicion anyway and (in retrospect) likely would have drawn a vigi hit. | ||
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
On June 11 2010 08:48 crate wrote: @zeks, DCL: The wagon against Deuce was derailed by Darth. Don't mistake yourself that LunarDestiny put on the killing blow or that AFJ made the first argument and vote. Darth was a six-vote swing AND he's the mayor AND I gather he has the town's trust. Mentally remove Darth's vote-switch and go look at the voting history; there was no chance that MooCow was gonna die. And then suddenly with one swoop that at least I didn't see coming he's two votes away. I have acknowledged that multiple times in my past posts. Mafia could never see it coming that MooCow was going to die. Regardless seeing that something was forming they needed to balance out the votes. zeks -I notice his name doesn't have a capital "Z"; I feel like he's playing an awful lot like he did in Pyrry's game so I think he's town (even down to the exact same type of slip-ups). Most likely not a power role unless perhaps it's veteran. As far I as remember I never played since after Pyrry's game rofl ... or maybe one game don't remember which one I was medic for. Regardless I didn't do so hot in either. | ||
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
#1062 Thinks the Mafia on deuce's bandwagon would probably have stayed there because it was so well established. It would have stayed there if the MooCow argument never existed. If AFJ never came up with the MooCow thing we'd have something like a 17-5 vote split for deuce and Gila respectively. #1106 Posts trying to link clues to 3 Lions. Misses the stronger links outlined later on, but obviously 3 Lions is pretty likely connected to the (later) clues. If 3 Lions is red would that not practically clear my name? #1158 Analysis post on onihunter. He uses the fact that onihunter supported lynching deuce initially and only switched to MooCow later when the bandwagon was fairly well established as evidence that deuce is probably still green. He thinks that onihunter probably only switched because the result didn't matter, and he wanted to evenly distribute Mafia votes. I disagree with this inerpretation - I think there were probably quite a few Mafia on board with MooCow's lynching. Even as onihunter said, losing MooCow as a townie would be a bigger loss than losing deuce, so I think it's likely that a lot of Mafia jumped onto the MooCow bandwagon when they realized it was a possibility. Don't know about deuce, but I feel like he probably is just a retarded townie (I guess we'll find out for sure when he's modkilled this round). Losing MooCow would be only a slightly bigger loss than deuce (like 1 millimeter more). I won't argue how effective MooCow was the whole game, but sure I accept the fact some people think MooCow was more useful than deuce. #1209/1210 He's convinced that the MooCow bandwagon was not a Mafia ploy, and deuce is green because onihunter turned against him quickly. The MooCow bandwagon was started by a townie. Mafia used it to cover themselves up by spreading the votes evenly and to take out a better player (most of you agree MooCow was more useful than deuce). They were taking advantage of our "mistake" if you want to call it that. #1213 Again says he's sure that most of the mafia were against deuce. Yes, until the MooCow option came up for them. #1214 Post about Gila bandwagon - he clears LaXer because onihunter supported his lynching early in the game, says CompX/bumatlarge are suspicious because they voted near the end. This confuses me (even though CompX is suspicious). Why would the mafia waste two votes? The only plus side is that they wouldn't be involved in the lynching of a green, so there wouldn't be much suspicion cast on them compared to the others. Because I think without MooCow they would've possibly spread their votes with Gila. Then the MooCow thing came up so they used him instead of Gila. I'm still pretty sure zeks is Mafia. Well I said what I said I feel like I'm incriminating myself now for being so defensive all of a sudden. But the main point I want to establish is how mafia was distributed in those voting lists. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On June 11 2010 05:43 MTF wrote: 2. Why waste kills (2 more town/blue roles dead by this point) when all that is gained by having me claim to have been hit really does is expose my posting habits to more scrutiny? Answer is, it doesn't, unless you think Mafia-side is trying to play in the most complicated way possible. It's been my experience that, other than selective PMs trying to persuade people, Mafia tend to stay as uncomplicated as possible, so that they don't get their members trapped in the open. I know this isn't going to convince you, Bumatlarge, but I'm putting it out there anyway for those following the conversation. Its this part that boggles me to no end. I completely agree; why waste those two kills. But then I bounce back into 'why hit you twice'? I think I'm willing to let it go on the premise that mafia didn't thoroughly think that through and figured they would get lucky. And thats all I'll say on the matter. Convince me? NEVER! | ||
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littlechava
United States7221 Posts
On June 11 2010 09:23 zeks wrote: It would have stayed there if the MooCow argument never existed. If AFJ never came up with the MooCow thing we'd have something like a 17-5 vote split for deuce and Gila respectively. If 3 Lions is red would that not practically clear my name? Losing MooCow would be only a slightly bigger loss than deuce (like 1 millimeter more). I won't argue how effective MooCow was the whole game, but sure I accept the fact some people think MooCow was more useful than deuce. The MooCow bandwagon was started by a townie. Mafia used it to cover themselves up by spreading the votes evenly and to take out a better player (most of you agree MooCow was more useful than deuce). They were taking advantage of our "mistake" if you want to call it that. Yes, until the MooCow option came up for them. Because I think without MooCow they would've possibly spread their votes with Gila. Then the MooCow thing came up so they used him instead of Gila. Well I said what I said I feel like I'm incriminating myself now for being so defensive all of a sudden. But the main point I want to establish is how mafia was distributed in those voting lists. For what it's worth, I'm not as suspicious about you as I am about the inactives with a few fishy posts like sputnik.theory, or the ones with clues connected to them like Hugoboss/3 Lions. I just feel like, as far as active posters go, you're one of the most suspicious. Maybe I need to read the entire exchange again, but I felt like anyone reasonable could assume that there were Mafia on every list. It just seemed like you were being way too defensive about the whole deal. And no, I don't think you connecting clues to 3 Lions would definitely make you a townie if he is indeed red. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
50.0001% hard facts  30% clues 20% behavior Thats what I personally go by, but as long as your considering them all in your vote you cant really have a wrong vote. | ||
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littlechava
United States7221 Posts
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littlechava
United States7221 Posts
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YellowInk
United States578 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On June 11 2010 10:28 YellowInk wrote: Looks like a lot of warnings are going out in about a half hour. And a couple modkills - maybe we'll get lucky. It's not like there was any reason to wait to vote down to the wire. This game is so messed up. Everyone has voted, so unless people have posted and I just haven't noticed, it looks like we will be cool, at least for today. Also, I'm vaguely insulted by my name on the shit list, but more insulted by the fact that nobody's analyzed me yet  | ||
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