EPTTL Mafia XXVI - Page 2
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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bumatlarge
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and dont even bother lunar i bet i could write the same thing darth did about everyone in this thread. dont get me wrong darth thats a very impressive analysis, but its founded on posts and assumptions. mafia can say anything and analyze jst as well. The only concrete information we can get is through roles and lies. if we can catch a lie and get DTs builing up a foundation of checks that he can issue through a mouth, then ill start making assumptions on a persons motives when the actual heat of being accused is brought on someones shoulders. it should be after this night that dts have built up something, or else stumbled on 2 mafia which would make for a huge turnaround. again posting from a phone so i apologize, i just dont want this kinda mindset enveloping the town when i get back. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
im sorry about the confusion of whether clues are important, i feel thats what dts should use to start with and build, and to use for estimated lynches. im reluctant to embelish their importance because no one expects me to condemn myself when things pop up about victims looking into mafia related subjects when that scenario seems pretty common regardless of layton. if something like the printer clue led to yellowink, then id put the noose around my own neck. (by the way please tell me a dt has clue checked that to be sure) id rather follow clues though then unbased opinions of one another. though mtf you're more experienced then me and if clues really are that strong then lets follow that path. anything is better then what im seeing. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
im sorry about the confusion of whether clues are important, i feel thats what dts should use to start with and build, and to use for estimated lynches. im reluctant to embelish their importance because no one expects me to condemn myself when things pop up about victims looking into mafia related subjects when that scenario seems pretty common regardless of layton. if something like the printer clue led to yellowink, then id put the noose around my own neck. (by the way please tell me a dt has clue checked that to be sure) id rather follow clues though then unbased opinions of one another. though mtf you're more experienced then me and if clues really are that strong then lets follow that path. anything is better then what im seeing. | ||
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bumatlarge
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bumatlarge
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On June 09 2010 12:05 LunarDestiny wrote: AcrossFIveJuly is a logical target. But Pyromaster is a bad target. Pyromaster got a 2 days temp ban and would be mod killed anyway. That is one wasted kill right there. And looks like someone was protected by a medic. I think pyro would have been able to avoid modkill in time, but still maybe mafia hates inactives as much as we do lol | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On June 09 2010 13:04 MTF wrote: Hey, Mafia. I'm + Show Spoiler + I highly suggest you keep trying to kill me.  Looking through clues now. You got hit once again? Obviously a medic protected you one day at least, so nice to know a medic is paying attention. But im tryin to ask myself why the mafia would hit a popular person once, see he lives, and then hit him ONCE the night after. Doesnt seem very well thought out, as the 50/50 shot of you being protected by a medic that time, would only lead to a medic protecting you again if you seemed like a hot target. I really dont see anyone else a medic would be desperate to protect. There is still the chance that mafia did stack hits, but that would mean your lying. I guess I'll see what you have to say, since littlechava and I were to be the prime suspects if you died, which this might as well be. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
I cant argue with the 3 lions clues, the three beers just sells it. | ||
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bumatlarge
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I've got some things to post later, but after seeing who these candidates for lynching are, we have an easy win if the four above are town. If any others want to add important persons to this list, feel free to say it. I feel mafia more about solidifying the town as a community rather then searching for mafia. That part comes naturally. This game is starting to show me that mafia will naturally show aversion to the towns survival as a whole.They will pick the lengthy option in a lynch that will give more time, because they just have to outlast the towns self decay. Once the town starts to gain momentum, you'll start to see certain people get desperate. The most dangerous mafia who feels hes safe and calm. If the town starts to get in a commotion, mafia start to gett a little reckless and get active. And they cant avoid it, so ican say it without worry. I just dont want any higher ups showing they are comfortable. completely down with ousting oni, enabling the double andby then getting more clues/dt leads. oh yeah be careful of dt darth, A fake DT putting a fellow mafia forward is not unheard of. Especially if that subject has all this dirt on him. Forgot GF and miller dont say anything for certain that could possibly involve these roles. ill be back at 10 | ||
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bumatlarge
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bumatlarge
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On June 10 2010 11:19 YellowInk wrote: Only scum like you would have such a perverted mind. ^.~ Or maybe a really sick mind would make that kind of connection, which leads me to believe YOU'RE REALLY THE + Show Spoiler + perverted one | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
I'll start with MTF, because in my mind he would be the most dangerous. If hypothetically mafia: 1) Godfather no doubt, comes out claiming 2 hits, bound to be checked 2) Hasn't called out anyone, but speaks his mind very logically pinning clues to people, and usually making his own findings. Mafia wouldn't have to much trouble with this, but neither would the most honest of townies. 3) Dont believe he has labelled onihunter or 3 lions, so this wouldn't have been planned, but he did mention Hugo who seems up in the air at the moment, so nothing deep here. 4) Likes to have opinions of people and not afraid to share. He seems satisfied with the management. But all this is fairly pointless because he doesnt have clues pointing to him yet that anyone has pointed out, and I'd say a substantial amount of clue-finding has been appearing. But there is a chance people have skipped over things, so I went back for a 2nd run-through of all the days to see what I could pick up. Remember Im only going after MTF because he would be the most dangerous mafia in my book. I will get to the other guys when I have the chance. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/flamewheel/TL_Mafia_XXVI/22_MTF.jpg) Basically I went on his name, the turtle, and his paragraph about people using intimidation and self-assumed power as a means of covering up how useless they are Day 1: I read it once, looked at the profile, read it again, profile, post, profile, and made one observation that I will need help on. Look at this part of the BC paragraph "Making his way down to the city center, he gazed at the buildings as he passed, the shopping mall that had just been built, the school he went to when he was a kid, just farther down the way a series of small stores and restaurants. Making his way back the way he came, he stopped by the fountain in front of the office. It was there he noticed he was being followed. Turning, he saw a figure rush forward. The following morning, the town would discover the mayor BloodyC0bbler dead and floating in the town fountain." There is alot of stuff in there. something about a town fountain outside a mall where the mayor was found floating. This was Oni's clue right? Long time to get a simple "he swam for 5 years" connected. Now this is where I perked up. MTF. MallTown fountain. Mayor floating in town fountain. Mayor turns to figure. The Following Morning. Now before you start jumping to conclusions, would flamewheel really put a clue like this? I've tried making heads or tails out of this for a good half-hour. Nothing went M____ T____ F____. Mall's town fountain is a bit of a stretch. "The following morning" is in the wrong order. Mayor T____ Floating? Does he want us to make synonyms? There is a potential puzzle in this, but this is as far as I went. It could be a gross misconception of a mere coincidence. But putting one M_ T_ F_ in order would just give it away. ^So I need help with that my mind is frazzled enough as it is. Day2: Only had to read this once to pick this up. " A masked figure followed him, and stealthily kept to the shadows, not letting ElyAs out of his sight. ElyAs moved quickly, breaking into a quick run, hoping to make it back home before he was overtaken. However, he was not to make it. As ElyAs passed by the town courthouse, he noticed that he had already been beaten--the masked figure was sitting on the steps." Tortoise and the Hare? An interesting take on it and not obvious. But it's something, I personally feel its a little stronger then a bunch of people with DTs in their profiles, but again there have been alot more then 6 people who have decent connections to clues. Its just a matter of connecting them. Day3: Stuff here about "slow" being thrown around. "However, just like the last night, a few people were too slow" "He walked slowly and deliberately" "slowly turned around" Doubt I need to explain. So with a little patience, I now have a previously clue-less person connected to all 3 days. I'd be a little less insistent, but I want to tie up those double hits on MTF to a medic, because he does have a medic. So if that medic could just somehow inform us that he did indeed protect MTF and got notified, that would really ease my conscience. Maybe if you really find you can trust someone rather then MTF himself, I'd appreciate it just to have 2 people liable to counteract these clues. I like my pudding with a side of proof I probably wont get to crate tonight, but Id suggest that you rolecheck him, even more so then MTF, because he seems less likely to be picked as a GF, but still a candidate, not running for mayor may either help or hinder his case for being a GF. Can't really tell, I don't think im good at this posting analysis thing >.<Oh and no one suggested anyone for this insurance list of darth/MTF/crate/yellow, cmon guys, we mostly seem to be focusing on the lower tier posters, I'm look forward to yellows posting opinions on individuals because I still personally feel hes not a mafia, and he seems very precise on these, which is helpful for my lackluster performance in this department. | ||
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bumatlarge
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bumatlarge
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And it's nice to see inspection of the people I posted, so I'm going to throw crate and darth in with the next post I do with previous clue found on them, because Im losing it (maybe I should drink more when im analyzing lol). I'll get to yellow in a bit. Also, why MTF can avoid suspicion because he is a bulletproof role? I think it's still relatively up in the air until his medic can find a way to vouch for him. I'm just entirely against ruling anyone out as mafia. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On June 11 2010 05:43 MTF wrote: 2. Why waste kills (2 more town/blue roles dead by this point) when all that is gained by having me claim to have been hit really does is expose my posting habits to more scrutiny? Answer is, it doesn't, unless you think Mafia-side is trying to play in the most complicated way possible. It's been my experience that, other than selective PMs trying to persuade people, Mafia tend to stay as uncomplicated as possible, so that they don't get their members trapped in the open. I know this isn't going to convince you, Bumatlarge, but I'm putting it out there anyway for those following the conversation. Its this part that boggles me to no end. I completely agree; why waste those two kills. But then I bounce back into 'why hit you twice'? I think I'm willing to let it go on the premise that mafia didn't thoroughly think that through and figured they would get lucky. And thats all I'll say on the matter. Convince me? NEVER! | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
50.0001% hard facts 30% clues 20% behavior Thats what I personally go by, but as long as your considering them all in your vote you cant really have a wrong vote. | ||
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bumatlarge
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Amen. | ||
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bumatlarge
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id like to also move those 3 unsures to most likely town, as gilaboy and decond seem deliberatley low post count, in fact id protect these two. deuce is an asshole townie im very certain. They would also be good candidates for rolechecks and medics, as they seem like mafia targets to me from the way mafia has been going. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
 my condolences. | ||
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bumatlarge
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