TL Mafia XVIII

On February 15 2010 09:37 Caller wrote:

That's just it though: in this game the DT doesn't have to worry about dying as much purely because Mafia has a fixed, low KP, and we have medics. Suppose a DT roleclaims publicly that he is a DT. The mafias can't afford to hit him in the event that he is an actual DT because they will lose a KP that would be better served hitting an opposing mafia. More importantly, since mafia don't have to kill town to win, they don't need to hunt down all the blue roles immediately-in fact, they would like to have a DT to give them role checks to narrow down their search for the opposing mafia. So there's no real need for the DT to fear, especially because we have enough medics to negate any deaths. I already explained why its unlikely for mafia to pose as a DT purely because there's too much risk and not enough reward for the mafia team because there are two mafias. The game changes completely in this scenario so a lot more can be done than in a normal town vs. one mafia game.

On February 16 2010 05:10 Caller wrote:
Seriously, what is the point of updating those things? Who cares about numbers, people can post as much or as little as they like. Obviously the mafia won't be stupid and have all their members be constantly active in case they slip up, nor would they all pretend to be inactive. They would likely be distributed throughout the activity spectrum, so just making lists of how many posts people made is ludicrous.

You could just summarize it as this:

Active posters -
DoctorHelvetica
BillMurray
Chezinu
Redtooth
Meeple
Ace
L
Iaaan
BC

I dunno some of the newer players very well so I can't pass judgement on their actions. Of course we would expect some of the "veteran" players to say lots of shit cuz that's how they roll.


People with wise things to say
Zato-1, Redtooth (just a lil') Foolishness (especially the part about people spamming shit),~Opz~ I think ~Opz~ always has valid points. I remember when I was running Red Army Mafia that he nailed a lot of people on clues, even if nobody listened to anything he had to say.

everyone else seems to be talking random shit if you ask me ~~~

On February 16 2010 06:13 Caller wrote:

i'm pissed that nobody's listening to me as usual and it seems that everybody else in the game has adopted the "troll the fuck out of the mafia thread until someone slips up" strategy. Not that the strategy doesn't work, but when everybody does it just causes useful posts like Zato's to get buried underneath steaming piles of shit.

i mean what else is there to say right now. no dts have come forth, despite me saying that it's unlikely dts will die even if they rc. Similarly, the mayor hasn't even been elected yet and we don't even know the identity of the BGs. I have a plan for that but I don't want to reveal it just yet until after the election. We've had a few roleclaims from PMs, apparently, but most of those appear to be phishing. DoctorHelvetica and Bill Murray are spamming the thread full of shit, which, while I'm not sure if they're mafia or not, in the event that they're not makes them stupid townies.

this game is just really frustrating for me. I'm surprised that Ver, my second-in-command in ur mafia game, hasn't had any real insights on how to abuse the two mafias against each other, especially when he helped pipe in on the plan (that ultimately fell through thanks to a certain somebody). You also haven't had any real insights either, other than trolling the fuck out of the thread. I can't really blame anyone else to be honest, especially since MTF, Camlito, and all the other experienced players in that game aren't in this one. Instead, we're relying on the mafia game equivalent of trench warfare to deal with the two mafia blitzkrieg. Unless there's some townie circle that I'm not privy to, I really don't see much else that I can contribute at this point in time.

rageeeeeeeeeee

/end rant

On February 16 2010 06:20 Caller wrote:

I know chezinu made some pretense at roleclaiming DT. But I have no idea if he was kidding or not, nor did he make any effort at trying to rally people around him, nor did he offer to have someone checked. He just pointed some fingers and put some fancy colors on his postingz.

you gotta walk the walk if you gonna talk the talk

On February 16 2010 06:26 Caller wrote:

Did you even read my post?

I already stated very clearly that there is absolutely no incentive for mafia to kill DTs right now, or as long as the balance of power between the two mafias is maintained. None at all. Mafia have no method of identifying other mafia at this stage this early in the game. They want DTs to clear up suspects on their lists. Mafia don't have to kill a single townie this game in order to win, either.

And I doubt a godfather would expose themselves this early. Why would they care about townie circles? Again, I stated multiple times that all mafia has to do is kill the other mafia. Infiltrating townie circles is a lot less useful than it is in games with just one mafia.

On February 16 2010 06:34 Caller wrote:

a) lies
b) truths, but still it'd be nice to have them along. Now that I think about isn't Fishball here? Or is he afk troll again?
c) I see malongo is playing, hmm
d) While this statement surely is true, if you're putting KP against DTs, that's KP that can't be used against potential mafia suspects. I'm not sure if Mafia would be willing to forego that KP when the other mafia can just as easily put all their hits and possibly do more damage to the first mafia. KP is too important in this game to be wasted on town players (even DTs) when the other side can take advantage of this fact and hit them.

On February 16 2010 06:37 Caller wrote:

First of all, why would we posts lists of confirmed mafia? This isn't Ver's "medics stay away" list, and we don't have listchecks either. More importantly, if we find out that they are all the same members of the same family, we can very easily turn all our efforts into hunting down the other family to restore the balance of power. It's very easy to adapt to a change in circumstance like this.

On February 16 2010 07:11 Caller wrote:

your many traps that you lay appear to be just subtle trolls to provoke responses. I'm not saying that they're not valid sources of information, I'm just saying they're trolls designed to trip people up. It doesn't really help establish order in the town is my concern.

On February 17 2010 10:16 Caller wrote:
Time for Caller's shitty clue analysis:

I think the most interesting things here are the fact that this is likely the same mafiaso that was really "bright" in the day 1 post. Since Empyrean was dead and green, this clue must point to somebody else. Now before anyone mentions it, I'm going to immediately say that if this clue points to Amber[Light], I'm going to cut myself.


This intruder I would guess to be some kind of a ninja, considering that a) the mafiaso was able to get there quickly, killed Zato with sharp objects (shurikens, anyone?) and was nowhere to be seen, although there was a hole behind the door, which could have been something else.


I'm honestly a little bit confused about this clue. I'm guessing that the clue here is the miniature sphinx, but I have absolutely no idea whose profile this points to.


This mafia appears to be killing with the white particles, of course. I would guess that the particles are anthrax or something like that, or it could be some kind of pollen or allergies?


I would guess that this mafiaso isn't necessarily a team person or someone that has multiple people in their profile, but has more to deal with the pan that was flung into the face. What kind of person tends to throw pans, however, I do not know. I would say a woman but that's sexist.


This is the most interesting part, I think. Why would BC's death be mentioned twice when none of the others are? The fact that there is a metal pike involved as opposed to the sphinx suggests that maybe BC was hit by both mafia. This would also likely account for the missing hit. As for whom the pike clue points too, I thought of Mystlord's profile picture, but I'm pretty sure that's a red herring as well.

In any case, the best use of early round clues is to check back with dead mafia. I.e. if we find a dead mafia, we could hopefully track him to some of these clues to get an idea of Incognito's style.

On February 17 2010 23:55 Caller wrote:
Citi.zen, to be fair, Ver is known for mass PM style along with big informative posts intermittently. I can vouch for him in this regard as I have played with him when he used this style in Ace's Mafia World. As for LucasWoJ, he hasn't really committed anything important to town, which might be a scumtell, but I also know that he tends to let things roll for a bit before he does anything.

Although, this could be an instance of chainsaw defense...

On February 19 2010 10:26 Caller wrote:

is this the first time you've been bragging about this?

also, since Mystlord was confirmed scum, that puts Madnessman's chainsaw defense into the realm of scumtell...

As for the mod kill, I'm guessing that Phujakawas /w/e his name is might be the person we're looking for in relation to the meadow/white powder clue. If that clue doesn't pop up again, we can be sure that it was the one that linked to him. The fact that we also got Mystlord now gives us an avenue to look for clues.

But there's one more thing that we should go over, and that's Mystlord's interesting post, where he states how we should be careful for:




I'm looking at the list, and I am curious as to why a significant amount of other veteran players are not on the list. There are many other players that we should definitely keep an eye on, such as Chezinu, Opz, Lucas, Shikyo, Foolishness, nemy, and SugiraMidori, to name a few. But I'm not entirely sure why Zona is on the list. It may be that I just haven't really seem him play at all, but as far as I know he died night 2 in Incognito's game and that was about it. He also really hasn't contributed that much (although with SC2 activity has probably been killed, mostly).

In any case, we should be highly suspect of this list since Mystlord put it out when his death was all but certain. I would personally suspect that at least one person on here is mafia.

The other alternative for the list might be that these are suspects of Mystlord's family. In which case, we should knowingly keep this list in the back of our heads in the event that one mafia side appears to have an advantage over the other. If the Gambino side is winning, we can "remove" this list from our suspects. If the Sumiyoshi side is winning, we should definitely pay more attention to potential clues that we can connect to people on this list.

On February 20 2010 10:17 Caller wrote:
So here are the mayoral candidates:

BloodyC0bbler dead townie
citi.zen
l10f
meeple dead townie
Ver
Ace dead townie
redtooth
Bill Murray dead townie
DoctorHelvetica dead sumiyoshi

So now we're down to citi.zen, l10f, Ver, and redtooth. I'm betting at least one of these guys is scummy. I doubt it's Ver, redtooth's been afk, citi.zen's still been contributing, and l10f has been afk. meh

I would contribute more but watching people play SC2 is just too big of a priority right now -_-

maybe more thinking later

On February 21 2010 03:20 Caller wrote:

~Opz always has good clue analysis. This is something that people should really, really pay attention too -_-

On February 21 2010 10:52 Caller wrote:

i was serious -_-

On February 21 2010 12:34 Caller wrote:


afaik, me, Ace, and Ver, all got this PM from redtooth:


that's the only reason i voted for him.

As for my activity, I've already stated that SC2 has just been dragging my activity down (and as I'm sure, many other peoples'). More importantly, I am not a good player. We've gone over this multiple times. I can't clue analyze for shit, I can't behavior analyze for shit, I just make plans that apparently nobody listens to.

I'm still curious as to why redtooth didn't release the bodyguard list. It would help us a LOT. Even if the BGs just came forward and RCd it would help us a lot. Consider that one of them is mafia (SM) at least, and one wonders why they would put a godfather in the BG position.

Does nobody think this odd? Why would a godfather be in the BG position?

The way I see it, there are three scenarios (obviously) and their implications are as follows:

A) redtooth is Sumiyoshi. Thus, Gambinos put in SM to take away from his BG protection.
B) redtooth is town. Gambinos put in SM because they think he might be Sumiyoshi.
C) redtooth is Gambino. Gambinos put in SM to give him full protection/mindfuck us.

The way I see it, if we lynch redtooth, or even threaten to, we can pressure him into giving us information like who the bodyguards are. If the bodyguards die off, we will be able to get a better idea of what side is killing the bodyguards. Who knows, if redtooth is indeed town and both mafia suspect that he is scum, we might see hits overlap, resulting in wasted KP for the mafia.

I highly doubt either mafia put in more than one BG poser, because mafiasos will always take the safe, cautious route, instead of the more risky route. It's a scumtell when players tend to play too cautiously because it implies that they fear getting implicated and dying, when in fact an ordinary townie does not have this fear, especially in a scenario where mafia do not want to kill town vs. the other mafia.

In summary, I conclude that redtooth, you should tell trusted members of town (at least) the members of your bodyguard list. If you are town, you have nothing to fear from giving this information out, as long as mafia hit town they aren't hitting each other, which gives us more time to figure out who's who. Even if you are a medic, losing you at this point isn't a huge loss. Given that we have three mad hatters so far, there's probably going to be about as many medics, which is enough to deal with the reduced mafia KP that I expect shortly.

Lynching redtooth right now, however, without this information, is just a bad idea.

On February 22 2010 02:28 Caller wrote:
okay, all the SC2 streams are off. Time to do something.

And that something is this: L, I'm almost 100% sure that you are town. Even if redtooth flips town I don't think there's any reason to lynch you. That lynch would rather be focused on the Sumiyoshi.

Here's what we know so far and what we are speculating (in no particular order):

a) SugiariaMidori was the Gambino GF and was substituted in as a bodyguard.
b) redtooth may or may not be Sumiyoshi because he was a mayoral candidate that got a lot of votes for some reason.
c) Ver is working with redtooth, therefore guilt by association suggests that Ver is also Sumiyoshi.
d) DoctorHelvetica was also Sumiyoshi.

Your argument implies that three Sumiyoshi members are actively taking control of the town, and that they all ran for mayor, knowingly putting themselves in the spotlight. Does that seem likely or reasonable, especially when only two of them at most are guaranteed protection from night hits that will almost assuredly hit this of candidates? Already one Sumiyoshi is dead that was a mayoral candidate. It has been emphasized over and over again that the mayoral candidates have a high chance of having mafia, and in the case where there are two mafia there should be at least two candidates, one from each side.
However, the fact that SugiaraMidori was found as a GF suggests either

a) redtooth is Sumiyoshi
b) redtooth is town
c) redtooth is Gambino and it was a mindfuck

I suggest just exposing the bodyguard list, as I have said multiple times. If redtooth is town he has nothing to fear from doing so. If he truly is mafia we should see that one side would hit the bodyguard list, because if they don't there's no way to kill him. And depending on whether or not we see a Sumiyoshi as a bodyguard, that may tell us whether or not redtooth is truly town affiliated or scum.

Remember, it's not a bad thing for town members to die in this game from night hits, even if redtooth is a medic. The primary job for town is to preserve the balance of power that exists between the two mafia, and whittle each side down until town wins.

I understand that L is afraid that the Sumiyoshi are in control here. But lynching redtooth right off the bat here I feel is too aggressive of a move off a rather sketchy clue (although behavior is certainly fishy). The bodyguard list would do the exact same thing, except we would also get a better idea of the composition of the bodyguard list, and we may or may not prevent a medic from getting lynched when the balance of power is this fragile.

That said, until redtooth agrees to release this list, which I have advocated since like the beginning of the game, I'm going to vote for him. Plain and simple.

On February 22 2010 09:23 Caller wrote:
see L, I told you that he had nothing to do with me -_-

This also means for you townies that Ver is basically innocent and now we're down to 2 KP and down 2 members. Awesome. Not to mention I gave myself away, which is going to bring us down even more -_-.

When I was talking about balance of power the entire game, it wasn't a bad idea for town to listen to what I had to say -_-

Although you guys should probably get the bodyguards to roleclaim, seeing as how the mayor was townie. If we get all the bodyguards you might find a Sumiyoshi there. If not then you have confirmed townies.

On February 25 2010 07:18 Caller wrote:
ohi guys im back

sc2's starting to bore me

anyways i hears people wanna kill me

have fun with that but lemme ask you this

suppose i am really sumiyoshi. Why didn't I die last night? If I was sumiyoshi and false claimed, the Gambinos can see that as an obvious hit.

The answer is, of course, the fact that my mafia is a bunch of lazy uncoordinated crackheads that are completely incapable of reading the thread, doing character analysis, or paying any attention at all.

In any case I happen to have a filtered list of roles (aka, people who aren't dead) that I accumulated from random people. Feel free to make of it what you will. obviously i hid the members of my mafia among both scum and town but let's see who the sumiyoshi hit tonight.

5. johnnyspazz green
8. Vivi57 green
11. XeliN mad hatter
12. Amber[Light] green
13. Fishball veteran
14. QuickStriker scum
16. dozko green
17. Nikon scum
18. tree.hugger medic
19. ShoCkeyy scum
22. meeple scum
23. Chezinu DT
24. Scamp green
26. L (Pardoner) green
28. Iaaan green
29. ~OpZ~ green
30. sidesprang scum
32. Caller scum
33. ohN green
34. Abenson veteran
38. CynanMachae scum
40. tredmasta green
44. [NyC]HoBbes green
45. Versatile green
47. Malongo DT
48. decafchicken veteran
50. Foolishness green
51. madnessman green

and now back to SC2, not going to really reply too much here, this game got boring since somebody hit Ace without me knowing -_-