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On February 21 2010 11:03 L wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 10:46 meeple wrote:On February 21 2010 10:10 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:54 Iaaan wrote:On February 21 2010 09:07 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:06 redtooth wrote:On February 21 2010 09:04 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:01 redtooth wrote:
ok L is pushing for my death but i'm no good at clue analysis so i can't really find an alternative for the stain clue. but i can offer my somewhat overused WIFOM defense and must say that i am sort of sick of people demanding my head. besides, your clue analysis for me was sort of weak this time.
if you look through the thread i wanted both mystlord and DrH dead. i know these aren't the best defenses but i'm still thinking through the events that have happened. if i'm mafia you guys are screwed anyways because i'm so gosu.
time for some important information. get your pens ready becaaaause:
SugiuraMidori was one of the bodyguards. I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you.
i do agree that we should get a double lynch going tomorrow. and unless there is some ridiculous coincidence involving inactivity and a vet or medic, Ver is logically cleared to be vet. you guys are safe with him as far i can tell. if you have any questions or possible scenarios where ver isn't blue then by all means PM me an we can think it through.
also, the scamp lynch is bullshit. he shuts up regardless of his color. treehugger is broadcasting 10000x more tells than scamp. if i have time i'll get you more analysis on his posts. but tonight we can hope mafia goes and kills scamp/johnnyspazz and doesn't pull another night 1. treehugger you are scum. go to sleep.
on a side note, i'll be on now but my activity won't be nearly as high as before. the weekend and first part of this week is going to be busy. So, uh, how do you know that its the gambinos hitting the town? Please be detailed and make it quick. well they wanted to be in the town circle. they gave GF to SM, who's only known to post lists, and put him in BG position. i would assume the only reason why is to get a list of blues and knock them out. and yes i was intentionally being provocative in my last post. That's the wrong answer. You just admitted to being mafia. Thanks. I think I missed something, how does this prove redtooth is mafia? not that I don't suspect him, but I don't see how this proves he is mafia. On February 21 2010 09:12 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I certainly agree.
As for me posting; I've been moving and such so I can only come online when go to my girlfriends house. I really haven't been able to be active that much, but I'm still reading and doing my own clue analysis. But, damn, DrH? I seriously thought he would of been a blue :\ At least I was hoping he was. And what I see here is someone trying to take suspicion off of themselves. Because unless redtooth is mafia, he doesn't know which team has been hitting more town members apart from the 1 hit discrepancy. The manner in which he articulated his conviction basically flat out states that he knows something that he wouldn't know if he was a towns person. Redtooth hasn't even bothered to try to defend himself; the bulk of his argument is that he believed sugi was part of some conspiracy to get into a town circle. Why would he taunt the mafia as town anyways? What's the purpose of this line? I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you. Redtooth admits he hasn't thought the situation through, he he's posting from the hip, so to speak. So if he's posting from the hip, why wouldn't he address both mafia teams together and say something akin to: "why are you mafia guys hitting so many townspeople; go hit each other!"? Well, its pretty obvious, he's sumiyoshi and he's taking a jab at the other team because he knows which hits his team is responsible for, and he has a general idea about which hits the other team is responsible for (sans bombs, etc.). Also; Chez was joking and trying to say that if redtooth was mafia that he'd have contacted him? Doesn't seem like it here: From: Chezinu [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: Clues Date: 2/21/10 09:09 Ding Ding ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Was it redtooth? Because he just admitted to being mafia. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Psh, me work with Ver? yeah right! My mystery mafia contact wasn't Ver.. keep trying! Well... that PM is questionable, since I don't think we can take anything Chez says seriously. I do agree that redtooth seems to know things that he shouldn't. I wouldn't mind so much if he said that those were things he thought, instead of stating them as facts. If you think he knows things he shouldn't, vote for him. The only place he'd get that information from is from either being mafia, or by someone who's mafia telling him which wouldn't happen. This is 100% clearcut. People don't drop mafia team names by mistake.
ok, I'm surprised no one brought this up yet. If you look, you can see that sug was Gambino. That is a well known fact. I'm slow, please explain what redtooth said wrong. Seriously, this is only a semi-joke.
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On February 21 2010 11:05 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 11:03 L wrote:On February 21 2010 10:46 meeple wrote:On February 21 2010 10:10 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:54 Iaaan wrote:On February 21 2010 09:07 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:06 redtooth wrote:On February 21 2010 09:04 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:01 redtooth wrote:
ok L is pushing for my death but i'm no good at clue analysis so i can't really find an alternative for the stain clue. but i can offer my somewhat overused WIFOM defense and must say that i am sort of sick of people demanding my head. besides, your clue analysis for me was sort of weak this time.
if you look through the thread i wanted both mystlord and DrH dead. i know these aren't the best defenses but i'm still thinking through the events that have happened. if i'm mafia you guys are screwed anyways because i'm so gosu.
time for some important information. get your pens ready becaaaause:
SugiuraMidori was one of the bodyguards. I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you.
i do agree that we should get a double lynch going tomorrow. and unless there is some ridiculous coincidence involving inactivity and a vet or medic, Ver is logically cleared to be vet. you guys are safe with him as far i can tell. if you have any questions or possible scenarios where ver isn't blue then by all means PM me an we can think it through.
also, the scamp lynch is bullshit. he shuts up regardless of his color. treehugger is broadcasting 10000x more tells than scamp. if i have time i'll get you more analysis on his posts. but tonight we can hope mafia goes and kills scamp/johnnyspazz and doesn't pull another night 1. treehugger you are scum. go to sleep.
on a side note, i'll be on now but my activity won't be nearly as high as before. the weekend and first part of this week is going to be busy. So, uh, how do you know that its the gambinos hitting the town? Please be detailed and make it quick. well they wanted to be in the town circle. they gave GF to SM, who's only known to post lists, and put him in BG position. i would assume the only reason why is to get a list of blues and knock them out. and yes i was intentionally being provocative in my last post. That's the wrong answer. You just admitted to being mafia. Thanks. I think I missed something, how does this prove redtooth is mafia? not that I don't suspect him, but I don't see how this proves he is mafia. On February 21 2010 09:12 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I certainly agree.
As for me posting; I've been moving and such so I can only come online when go to my girlfriends house. I really haven't been able to be active that much, but I'm still reading and doing my own clue analysis. But, damn, DrH? I seriously thought he would of been a blue :\ At least I was hoping he was. And what I see here is someone trying to take suspicion off of themselves. Because unless redtooth is mafia, he doesn't know which team has been hitting more town members apart from the 1 hit discrepancy. The manner in which he articulated his conviction basically flat out states that he knows something that he wouldn't know if he was a towns person. Redtooth hasn't even bothered to try to defend himself; the bulk of his argument is that he believed sugi was part of some conspiracy to get into a town circle. Why would he taunt the mafia as town anyways? What's the purpose of this line? I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you. Redtooth admits he hasn't thought the situation through, he he's posting from the hip, so to speak. So if he's posting from the hip, why wouldn't he address both mafia teams together and say something akin to: "why are you mafia guys hitting so many townspeople; go hit each other!"? Well, its pretty obvious, he's sumiyoshi and he's taking a jab at the other team because he knows which hits his team is responsible for, and he has a general idea about which hits the other team is responsible for (sans bombs, etc.). Also; Chez was joking and trying to say that if redtooth was mafia that he'd have contacted him? Doesn't seem like it here: From: Chezinu [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: Clues Date: 2/21/10 09:09 Ding Ding ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Was it redtooth? Because he just admitted to being mafia. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Psh, me work with Ver? yeah right! My mystery mafia contact wasn't Ver.. keep trying! Well... that PM is questionable, since I don't think we can take anything Chez says seriously. I do agree that redtooth seems to know things that he shouldn't. I wouldn't mind so much if he said that those were things he thought, instead of stating them as facts. If you think he knows things he shouldn't, vote for him. The only place he'd get that information from is from either being mafia, or by someone who's mafia telling him which wouldn't happen. This is 100% clearcut. People don't drop mafia team names by mistake. ok, I'm surprised no one brought this up yet. If you look, you can see that sug was Gambino. That is a well known fact. I'm slow, please explain what redtooth said wrong. Seriously, this is only a semi-joke.
Because knowing sugi was gambino doesn't imply that gambino are trying to kill townies. It might imply gambino are trying to figure out who blue players are, but even then: why would they be trying to kill them? Its easier to get a list of blues, cross them off your suspect list and go after other people.
Additionally, look at redtooth's phrasing.
I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you. Redtooth isn't saying 'because they put sugi in, I infer that they are trying to kill townies'. He says "On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town." He doesn't say he thinks they're doing that based on his assumptions, he doesn't say its probable.
He says: "Gambinos... are trying to kill town". How do you know that? You don't. You just admitted you're either Sumiyoshi and know who the Gambinos have been hitting because you know who you've been hitting, or you're part of the Gambinos and trying to take shots at your own team for being dumb.
I mean, disguising a godfather implies you're trying to kill the town? Are you serious chez?
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I actually think there's validity to L's claim that redtooth is in the Sumiyoshi clan. DrH was in the Sumiyoshi clan, and here are the pm's between him and me. While there's nothing directly incriminating, from the way he dodges my queries and gives me nothing of substance made me suspicious. I directly asked him if he was suspicious of redtooth, and while he does make a conscious effort to sound uncertain as a fellow townie would, he gives me zero explanation and bullshit logic and goes: "I think either redtooth and ace are both mafia of the same family, or redtooth is a medic as he claims and is just using some sort of information gathering technique to decide who to cover" and instead starts voicing his suspicions of L.
PM's in spoiler:
+ Show Spoiler +Yes. When I was mafia our strategy was to throw in just enough votes for me to be mayor. When it was clear I was going to win, I instructed several mafia voters to change their vote to a competing non-mafia candidate.
Considering each mafia candidate is in cahoots with at least 9 other players, there are a lot of ways this could work out.
I've also noticed L's arguments becoming seemingly less reasonable recently. I'm gonna comb over them again soon when I'm not so busy. I seem suspiciously inactive but I am too addicted to this ARG I blogged about (http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=112469) to worry too much about mafia right now.
One of them is mafia, no doubt. It is possible they staged their disagreement in the beginning. It's a common way to get people to not group mafia together.
I was way out of it for the first half of day 1 because I wasn't paying attention which is how I'll justify most of my vote switches. At the time, I felt most strongly that L was pro-town, but now Ace is dead and he flipped green
I don't know what to think yet. I'll give it some time and post my thoughts more comprehensively later
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Original Message:
i wrote a post on pg 65 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=111913¤tpage=65), but to elaborate on it, the more i think about it, the more certain i am that redtooth and L must be mafia. mayor+pardonner are both incredibly important positions and gives whichever team (whether it be mafia a, mafa b, or town) who "owns" those positions an enormous advantage. the end tally was so low that a mafia team could EASILY get their candidate elected. there's no way a mafia team would let such a big position just slip from their fingers. itd be sheer stupidity.
it is a game of 30v10v10, but the mafia know who their team mates are, whereas townies dont. and with so many people abstaining, it was probably fairly easy for them to have their candidate elected.
you yourself were mafia last game, and ended up being elected mayor, were u not? surely u must know how much of an advantage each mafia team has over the town when it comes to elections
what perplexes me is that redtooth voted for L. is it possible that they are on the same team? could it even be possible for a non-mafia to get elected?
what are your thoughts on all of this.
ill admit im wary of sending u this, esp. since i just realized u kept switching votes and ultimately u voted for L. i did too though..so meh. i might just post my thoughts on the main thread..it's so dominated by spam tho im almost discouraged against doing so lol.
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Original Message:
I'm really not buying redtooths defense that it's impossible he and ace are both in the same mafia and that he is 100% confirmed pro-town
his arguments have been super inconsistent since the beginning of his posting. laughably so.
I think either redtooth and ace are both mafia of the same family, or redtooth is a medic as he claims and is just using some sort of information gathering technique to decide who to cover.
The voting history doesn't seem too suspicious to me. I can see a pro-town voting for redtooth to get a possible medic in a protected role, but it isn't a smart move since there is no longer any way for him to confirm he is blue.
I'm torn about redtooth, but I'd be surprised if Ace wasn't a mafia, if he isn't that immediately makes me suspect L.
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Original Message:
sorry for taking a while to reply. im actually at a lecture right now, and on a crummy, minuscule netbook at that. what are your thoughts on what went down at the elections? with the whole role claim, ace switching to L, and then switching back to redtooth at the last minute, etc? if you're suspicious of ace, would it then follow that you are suspicious of redtooth as well?
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Original Message:
THat's fair reasoning.
Was there anything specific speculation-wise you wanted to discuss? I don't feel to confident that anyone is mafia at this point, although I definitely suspect Ace.
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Original Message:
haha why thank u. reason i pm'd you was not to be passive aggressive, but rather i want somebody to speculate with/shed light on things, and you seemed the best fit to me.
though i have no idea if you are actually mafia or not, i figured it wouldn't hurt to pm u. if you are mafia, you're looking for other mafia members as well so it shouldnt be TOO much of a problem. unless of course i ask you about members in your own group--in which case you can always feign ignorance. that was my reasoning at least...
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Original Message:
watching marble hornets and playing zone of the enders 2
im halfassedly browsing teamliquid atm. I'll be active later today, although i might be semi inactive tomorrow, as ill be having guests over ;o
btw i like ur posting
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Original Message:
for someone who claims to 'spend their life on the internet,' where did u go suddenly? busy pming/posting elsewhere?! -.^
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"This mafia game works slightly different than the normal ones featured here on TL, so I'll explain it a bit more. First off, the game will feature two mafia families, who have different objectives than the normal game. Each mafia family's objective is to eliminate the other mafia team. They do not have to eliminate the town in order to achieve victory. The town, on the other hand, must eliminate 8/10 mafia from both families in order to win."
Hear my plan!
If redtooth and L are mafia of different teams, then we as town shall hold them hostage! They can not win the game without eliminating the other team completely. If town doesn't vote for either L or redtooth and they happen to be mafia from different team, it is a sure way for town to either get attacked by mafia or win!
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On February 21 2010 11:30 Chezinu wrote:
"This mafia game works slightly different than the normal ones featured here on TL, so I'll explain it a bit more. First off, the game will feature two mafia families, who have different objectives than the normal game. Each mafia family's objective is to eliminate the other mafia team. They do not have to eliminate the town in order to achieve victory. The town, on the other hand, must eliminate 8/10 mafia from both families in order to win."
Hear my plan!
If redtooth and L are mafia of different teams, then we as town shall hold them hostage! They can not win the game without eliminating the other team completely. If town doesn't vote for either L or redtooth and they happen to be mafia from different team, it is a sure way for town to either get attacked by mafia or win!
Sounds like a good plan if your mafia team has all of the blues co-operating with them, right?
If you think the original votelist for redtooth's been ignored, with you voting for him well before he claimed medic, you're wrong.
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In support of Redtooth's lynch, as a member of the sumiyoshi family, it is consistent with his candidacy campaign. First the Sumiyoshi family put up DoctorH to get elected, however if you look at the voting history, you will see that that DoctorH peaked at 4 votes, and at the end had only 2 votes. He obviously didn't have a chance of becoming elected, and seeing this, the sumiyoshi family puts up redtooth to become elected. Redtooth announced that he was running very late, after it became clear that DoctorH didn't have a chance. This defiantly points to redtooth being red.
The interesting thing is, that this still leaves a member of the Gambino family as one of the election candidates. Looking at the remaining candidates, l01f had random support for no reason at the start, but he still never really had a chance. Citi.zen had similar support, and had plenty of votes at one point, but really, L is the most likely to be the Gambino family member; he got the role of pardoner, the role that could save the Gambino family in the later parts of the game.
Redtooth is a member of the Sumiyoshi family, and L is a member of the Gambino family.
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Also some clue analysis that I don't think is spectacular, but could have some merit:
On February 14 2010 07:43 Incognito wrote:
The horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut.
Googling "L", the first thing that comes up is the wikipedia article.
The letter L is derived from the Egyptian crook or goad which stood for /l/. This originally may have been based on an Egyptian hieroglyph that was adapted by Semites for alphabetic purposes. The Greek letter Lambda Λ (upper case) or λ (lower case), as well as the equivalent Etruscan and Latin letters, represent the same sound as the Semitic letter.
Very much like a spear. I didn't think this was worth posting, however L's profile has little content, only a picture of luigi looking at some guy, which I don't see any clue links at all to. Only to his name.
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United States2186 Posts
Okay I need to make some things VERY clear. First off, double lynch is our trump and should be saved till the very end. With our hatters likely gone the double lynch is the only way we have of fixing an imbalanced power situation (say 5 vs 3). That means we are not double lynching tomorrow, and possibly not even the day after depending on how the kills go. With maf.ia KP this high still double lynching doesn't really do much, but when mafia have only 1 or even 2 kp each, it becomes a lot more useful and more important it is our failsafe in case one family does manage to take a lead
Double Lynching this early only helps the mafia. This means:
L
Fishball
Foolishness
LucasWoJ
tree.hugger
Iaaan
Chezinu
Scamp
Caller
sidesprang
meeple
Remove your double lynch vote now, no excuses. Double lynching at this point only favors the mafia.
Secondly, here are two alternative game progressions:
1) Ideal Scenario: We keep both families at 7/7, 4/4, 2/2. Of course that means we and they would be 100% accurate, but in general keeping them at the same kp is good enough.
2) Bad Scenario: 1 family gets KP and a member or two ahead, then further increases their lead if both families keep hitting mafia.
In other words, keep both families at the same KP/roughly equal member situation and we are good.
Yes all of this is quite obvious, but that's what is going on right now. The Sumiyoshi are trying to get Scamp (who is extremely likely Gambino) killed, thus achieving a superior position of 3:2 in kp and 8:6 in numbers. It's not a big deal if 1 family is a member ahead but we cannot let them get KP ahead, because that is a neverending spiral that leads to our loss. Thus it is extremely important that we make sure a Sumiyoshi dies in this lynch, tying both families at 7.
It is possible I might be wrong about Sumiyoshi intentions since a lot of people are voting for johnnyspazz (who can wait for tonight, quit voting for him), but regardless the most important thing is to make sure a sumiyoshi dies. A DT (the one who checked me actually) inspected Quickstriker last night and found that he is Sumiyoshi. Who cares about all these stupid conspiracy theorr lies, they are not important and distract us from the real task at hand: ensuring both families stay equal in power.
Vote for Quickstriker and DO NOT Vote for Double Lynch.
And btw anyone who pm'ed me sorry, you're going to have to wait a bit more for a response. I don't have much time but this needed to be said.
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United States2186 Posts
*stupid conspiracy theories*
dunno why lies is there.
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Ver, can you comment on my accusation of L being sumiyoshi? I do believe he was the one who brought up the double lynch, as well as the one pressing Scamp the hardest. You saying that the Mafia want a double lynch, and that the sumiyoshi are after Scamp seem to support that.
While I'm happy that we know Quickstriker is mafia, I think it is more worthwhile to lynch Redtooth or L, since they cannot be killing by the mafia. Why not lynch on of them and let the Gambino family kill Quickstriker?
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On February 21 2010 11:49 Iaaan wrote:Also some clue analysis that I don't think is spectacular, but could have some merit: Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 07:43 Incognito wrote:
The horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut.
Googling "L", the first thing that comes up is the wikipedia article. Show nested quote +
The letter L is derived from the Egyptian crook or goad which stood for /l/. This originally may have been based on an Egyptian hieroglyph that was adapted by Semites for alphabetic purposes. The Greek letter Lambda Λ (upper case) or λ (lower case), as well as the equivalent Etruscan and Latin letters, represent the same sound as the Semitic letter.
Very much like a spear. I didn't think this was worth posting, however L's profile has little content, only a picture of luigi looking at some guy, which I don't see any clue links at all to. Only to his name.
That's fairly weak... if we are to draw clue connections to L. I think madnessman brought it up. But L is a detective in Deathnote and this death is suspiciously detective-y
+ Show Spoiler +When the three Mafiosi made it to the city gate, they each decided to go in their separate directions, moving swiftly towards the houses of their victims. The first Mafioso went straight for the town center. When he finally arrived at his victim’s house, he noticed that the door had been left wide open. Cautiously, he peeked in the window, noticing that a pot of soup was still cooking on the stove. A pencil and a few charts were also spread on the table, but the Mafioso could not notice that anything important or telling about the papers. Figuring that his victim had been alerted to his presence and had hidden all his important documents before hastily vanishing, the Mafioso tiptoed upstairs, careful not to make any noises that could alert his victim. Upon reaching the upstairs bedroom, the Mafioso noticed fresh tracks beneath the window, and jumped down, careful not to disturb the tracks. He raced through the forest, and soon found his robed target sitting by the lake. Ace felt no surprise as he turned around to greet the Mafioso. He was about to warn the Mafioso that he couldn’t hide in the darkness, when suddenly the Mafioso sprayed gasoline all over Ace and quickly lit a match. As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light.
I'm still not totally convinced though... since it doesn't really explain the gasoline/light dark references...
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On February 21 2010 11:50 Ver wrote:
Okay I need to make some things VERY clear. First off, double lynch is our trump and should be saved till the very end. With our hatters likely gone the double lynch is the only way we have of fixing an imbalanced power situation (say 5 vs 3). That means we are not double lynching tomorrow, and possibly not even the day after depending on how the kills go. With maf.ia KP this high still double lynching doesn't really do much, but when mafia have only 1 or even 2 kp each, it becomes a lot more useful and more important it is our failsafe in case one family does manage to take a lead
Double Lynching this early only helps the mafia. This means:
L
Fishball
Foolishness
LucasWoJ
tree.hugger
Iaaan
Chezinu
Scamp
Caller
sidesprang
meeple
Remove your double lynch vote now, no excuses. Double lynching at this point only favors the mafia.
Secondly, here are two alternative game progressions:
1) Ideal Scenario: We keep both families at 7/7, 4/4, 2/2. Of course that means we and they would be 100% accurate, but in general keeping them at the same kp is good enough.
2) Bad Scenario: 1 family gets KP and a member or two ahead, then further increases their lead if both families keep hitting mafia.
In other words, keep both families at the same KP/roughly equal member situation and we are good.
Yes all of this is quite obvious, but that's what is going on right now. The Sumiyoshi are trying to get Scamp (who is extremely likely Gambino) killed, thus achieving a superior position of 3:2 in kp and 8:6 in numbers. It's not a big deal if 1 family is a member ahead but we cannot let them get KP ahead, because that is a neverending spiral that leads to our loss. Thus it is extremely important that we make sure a Sumiyoshi dies in this lynch, tying both families at 7.
It is possible I might be wrong about Sumiyoshi intentions since a lot of people are voting for johnnyspazz (who can wait for tonight, quit voting for him), but regardless the most important thing is to make sure a sumiyoshi dies. A DT (the one who checked me actually) inspected Quickstriker last night and found that he is Sumiyoshi. Who cares about all these stupid conspiracy theorr lies, they are not important and distract us from the real task at hand: ensuring both families stay equal in power.
Vote for Quickstriker and DO NOT Vote for Double Lynch.
And btw anyone who pm'ed me sorry, you're going to have to wait a bit more for a response. I don't have much time but this needed to be said.
We have 3 double-lynches... and alot of targets... I really doubt we'll be able to use all three in this game. We might as well use it while we can.
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Don't focus on the clue analysis, I kind of regret posting it. Madnessman did some analysis against L to, however the voting patterns/election implicate L much more strongly than clues.
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This possibly accounts for the light/dark references: In Death Note, L's nemesis is Light Yagami.
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On February 21 2010 12:03 madnessman wrote:
This possibly accounts for the light/dark references: In Death Note, L's nemesis is Light Yagami.
Ahh very nice...
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i changed my vote to quickstriker, but i dont see why we should not double lynch tomorrow. Since i feel we have alot of good clues to work of, and we will get more.
So you're gonna have to give more reasons for me to take away my double lynch vote.
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I changed my vote... because I'm curious to see whether Ver's detectives can be trusted, but there's no reason to not double lynch.
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Who cares about all these stupid conspiracy theorr lies, they are not important and distract us from the real task at hand: ensuring both families stay equal in power. Kinda matters because if redtooth flips red, you're heavily implicated.
The first people to vote redtooth are:
redtooth (9)
Chezinu x
Chezinu x
Ver
Ace x
Chezinu
Caller
d3_crescentia x
citi.zen
decafchicken
meeple
d3_crescentia
Ace
Empyrean
Bill Murray
Chez. You. Caller.
Chez has recently been found out as the bathroom shitter mafia. Scamp actually came through and made a fantastic clue analysis to save himself. Is he selling out a fellow teammember who he thinks will live regardless? maybe, but it doesn't matter. Chez attempts to distance himself from you in PMs as I showed earlier, but never really attacks you in the thread despite not being worried about throwing out attacks.
You and caller early on move to protect each other; Caller gets onto your medic list as proof of this. Caller, meanwhile, doesn't act for the majority of the game despite being a good player.
Redtooth and you, similarly, are buddies the entire game through. In the post that I call him out, literally the line after admitting that he's mafia, he basically tells people to slavishly obey you.
Simply put: After DrH had mediocre support, redtooth submits a half-assed candidacy very early. His mafia buddies boost him early in the running, but fearing that he would die quickly if he was not protected (which would subsequently reveal many of his allies on the voting list) he fake claims early and can't be verified.
Is this true? I don't know. I'll be more certain once redtooth dies, but its very odd that you'd attempt to bandwagon tree.hugger, then switch to quickstriker; if you had such good analysis earlier, why the change? If you're sumiyoshi, then you're essentially trying to trade an inactive member of your team to save redtooth and keep heat off yourself.
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On February 21 2010 12:20 L wrote:Show nested quote +Who cares about all these stupid conspiracy theorr lies, they are not important and distract us from the real task at hand: ensuring both families stay equal in power. Kinda matters because if redtooth flips red, you're heavily implicated. The first people to vote redtooth are: redtooth (9) Chezinu x Chezinu x Ver Ace xChezinu Caller d3_crescentia xciti.zen decafchicken meeple d3_crescentiaAceEmpyreanBill MurrayChez. You. Caller. Chez has recently been found out as the bathroom shitter mafia. Scamp actually came through and made a fantastic clue analysis to save himself. Is he selling out a fellow teammember who he thinks will live regardless? maybe, but it doesn't matter. Chez attempts to distance himself from you in PMs as I showed earlier, but never really attacks you in the thread despite not being worried about throwing out attacks. You and caller early on move to protect each other; Caller gets onto your medic list as proof of this. Caller, meanwhile, doesn't act for the majority of the game despite being a good player. Redtooth and you, similarly, are buddies the entire game through. In the post that I call him out, literally the line after admitting that he's mafia, he basically tells people to slavishly obey you. Simply put: After DrH had mediocre support, redtooth submits a half-assed candidacy very early. His mafia buddies boost him early in the running, but fearing that he would die quickly if he was not protected (which would subsequently reveal many of his allies on the voting list) he fake claims early and can't be verified. Is this true? I don't know. I'll be more certain once redtooth dies, but its very odd that you'd attempt to bandwagon tree.hugger, then switch to quickstriker; if you had such good analysis earlier, why the change? If you're sumiyoshi, then you're essentially trying to trade an inactive member of your team to save redtooth and keep heat off yourself.
afaik, me, Ace, and Ver, all got this PM from redtooth:
From: redtooth [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: vote for me
Date: 2/15/10 19:01
i know you want to. and i know you know it makes sense.
that's the only reason i voted for him.
As for my activity, I've already stated that SC2 has just been dragging my activity down (and as I'm sure, many other peoples'). More importantly, I am not a good player. We've gone over this multiple times. I can't clue analyze for shit, I can't behavior analyze for shit, I just make plans that apparently nobody listens to.
I'm still curious as to why redtooth didn't release the bodyguard list. It would help us a LOT. Even if the BGs just came forward and RCd it would help us a lot. Consider that one of them is mafia (SM) at least, and one wonders why they would put a godfather in the BG position.
Does nobody think this odd? Why would a godfather be in the BG position?
The way I see it, there are three scenarios (obviously) and their implications are as follows:
A) redtooth is Sumiyoshi. Thus, Gambinos put in SM to take away from his BG protection.
B) redtooth is town. Gambinos put in SM because they think he might be Sumiyoshi.
C) redtooth is Gambino. Gambinos put in SM to give him full protection/mindfuck us.
The way I see it, if we lynch redtooth, or even threaten to, we can pressure him into giving us information like who the bodyguards are. If the bodyguards die off, we will be able to get a better idea of what side is killing the bodyguards. Who knows, if redtooth is indeed town and both mafia suspect that he is scum, we might see hits overlap, resulting in wasted KP for the mafia.
I highly doubt either mafia put in more than one BG poser, because mafiasos will always take the safe, cautious route, instead of the more risky route. It's a scumtell when players tend to play too cautiously because it implies that they fear getting implicated and dying, when in fact an ordinary townie does not have this fear, especially in a scenario where mafia do not want to kill town vs. the other mafia.
In summary, I conclude that redtooth, you should tell trusted members of town (at least) the members of your bodyguard list. If you are town, you have nothing to fear from giving this information out, as long as mafia hit town they aren't hitting each other, which gives us more time to figure out who's who. Even if you are a medic, losing you at this point isn't a huge loss. Given that we have three mad hatters so far, there's probably going to be about as many medics, which is enough to deal with the reduced mafia KP that I expect shortly.
Lynching redtooth right now, however, without this information, is just a bad idea.
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On February 21 2010 12:20 L wrote:
Is this true? I don't know. I'll be more certain once redtooth dies, but its very odd that you'd attempt to bandwagon tree.hugger, then switch to quickstriker; if you had such good analysis earlier, why the change? If you're sumiyoshi, then you're essentially trying to trade an inactive member of your team to save redtooth and keep heat off yourself.
Thats kinda true... redtooth being mafia would implicate you (and me too, since I did switch to him last minute). I'm not totally sold on redtooth, but his death will have much greater consequences than simply keeping the mafia families somewhat equal, since 6-8 isn't that big of a difference this early in the game.
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EPT
