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On February 15 2010 14:37 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 12:36 Iaaan wrote:My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful. For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game. Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town. So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice. The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy. + Show Spoiler +On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote:enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because... I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR PLATFORMI am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory. I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town. Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living. THE OTHER CANDIDATESAll of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen). Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone: Show nested quote +2/14 16:21
logically it would make sense not to give Ver the "option" to step in and win the election. each mafia family will likely send out one mayor candidate and that makes elections hard enough. that's why we scrutinize the list of mayor candidates so thoroughly. if we give Ver the "option" of becoming mayor, he isn't scrutinized as much and when pressed on the idea that mafia families would push a member to candidacy he could say that he was "forced" into the position. or if a member of the same mafia family would be runner up in the votes then he could just step aside and use that fact later as defence.
now were he to have outright declared candidacy in the first place i wouldn't have minded voting for him. actually i probably would have voted for him. but that thought process would have been much different. he seems like such an attractive candidate now because he's smart and wasn't involved in any of the mess. Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise. PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSESome may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes). My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me. LYNCH CANDIDATEIf elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted. So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but FUTURE PLANSTo kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis. If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more. Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly). tl;drYou shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent. Thank you for your time. The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans. First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason. As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy. As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace. Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet. I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post: On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote:
Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.
In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.
I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything. My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way. I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response. listen kid. i'm going to point it out to you again. it's fairly obvious that i'm townie. like very very obvious. so obvious in fact that i'm surprised at the number of people PM'ing me and saying "OH I DONT THINK YOU ARE MAFIA" and either "I AM THIS ROLE" or "WHO DO YOU THINK MAFIA IS" lol. thanks guys. you guys make me blush. for those of you that still don't get it, I AM NOT MAFIA. let's look at the possibilities where i am mafia and why that possibility won't work. - both Ace and I are mafia - Ace is town-aligned and I am mafia Ace and I can't both be mafia. you guys let BM off the hook with the logic that "oh mafia wouldn't let him do something as stupid as that". now think about my actions. i literally went out of my way to defend ace because there were some insights into the clue structure that i felt L wasn't considering it. now if both ace and i were mafia, why would i so blatantly associate myself with ace and create a double target? if anything i can tell ace the same arguments and let him express it himself, letting the mafia family cut their losses with only 1 dead mafia. later on i started to suspect ace of being mafia and stopped defending him, another suspicious event in the eyes of the town but obviously understandable after i explain my reasons. these are all very very very risky plays if i were mafia. the alternative is Ace and i aren't aligned but i am mafia. then reason out why mafia would go out of his way to defend a random townie (or even worse a mafia of the other family). lol i could have done that to earn ace's trust but that's quite a difficult target to trick. that scenario doesn't make any sense at all either. i thought it was so obvious that you guys would understand without me explicitly laying it out but now do you understand why? please understand why... i'm getting sick of this.
This is a very good defense and I wish you had said this initially instead of just implying I was stupid.
I guess I must be reel dum 4 not cathcing on lawl
Anyway, I am still curious as to why you changed your mind about Ace. I feel a bit uncomfortable accepting your change of heart without some justification, as I've said before. I suspect Ace far more than I suspect you and that would really help put the idea of a possible connection between you and Ace to rest.
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On February 15 2010 14:37 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 12:36 Iaaan wrote:My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful. For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game. Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town. So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice. The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy. + Show Spoiler +On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote:enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because... I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR PLATFORMI am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory. I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town. Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living. THE OTHER CANDIDATESAll of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen). Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone: Show nested quote +2/14 16:21
logically it would make sense not to give Ver the "option" to step in and win the election. each mafia family will likely send out one mayor candidate and that makes elections hard enough. that's why we scrutinize the list of mayor candidates so thoroughly. if we give Ver the "option" of becoming mayor, he isn't scrutinized as much and when pressed on the idea that mafia families would push a member to candidacy he could say that he was "forced" into the position. or if a member of the same mafia family would be runner up in the votes then he could just step aside and use that fact later as defence.
now were he to have outright declared candidacy in the first place i wouldn't have minded voting for him. actually i probably would have voted for him. but that thought process would have been much different. he seems like such an attractive candidate now because he's smart and wasn't involved in any of the mess. Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise. PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSESome may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes). My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me. LYNCH CANDIDATEIf elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted. So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but FUTURE PLANSTo kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis. If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more. Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly). tl;drYou shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent. Thank you for your time. The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans. First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason. As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy. As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace. Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet. I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post: On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote:
Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.
In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.
I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything. My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way. I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response. listen kid. i'm going to point it out to you again. it's fairly obvious that i'm townie. like very very obvious. so obvious in fact that i'm surprised at the number of people PM'ing me and saying "OH I DONT THINK YOU ARE MAFIA" and either "I AM THIS ROLE" or "WHO DO YOU THINK MAFIA IS" lol. thanks guys. you guys make me blush. for those of you that still don't get it, I AM NOT MAFIA. let's look at the possibilities where i am mafia and why that possibility won't work. - both Ace and I are mafia - Ace is town-aligned and I am mafia Ace and I can't both be mafia. you guys let BM off the hook with the logic that "oh mafia wouldn't let him do something as stupid as that". now think about my actions. i literally went out of my way to defend ace because there were some insights into the clue structure that i felt L wasn't considering it. now if both ace and i were mafia, why would i so blatantly associate myself with ace and create a double target? if anything i can tell ace the same arguments and let him express it himself, letting the mafia family cut their losses with only 1 dead mafia. later on i started to suspect ace of being mafia and stopped defending him, another suspicious event in the eyes of the town but obviously understandable after i explain my reasons. these are all very very very risky plays if i were mafia. the alternative is Ace and i aren't aligned but i am mafia. then reason out why mafia would go out of his way to defend a random townie (or even worse a mafia of the other family). lol i could have done that to earn ace's trust but that's quite a difficult target to trick. that scenario doesn't make any sense at all either. i thought it was so obvious that you guys would understand without me explicitly laying it out but now do you understand why? please understand why... i'm getting sick of this.
Your first paragraph is useless; it cannot be proven, it is not a fact, If its true great, you have some people supporting you. I don't think that shows in the main thread.
You haven't addressed why you became suspicious of Ace, as myself and DoctorH and probably other people have asked; both you and Ace seem to dodge around many points made against you. You also haven't said anything following up your decision to lynch Bill murray; starting to realize it was a mistake? It is also inconsistent how you have warmed up to the idea of clues.
You say its very risky, but considering that fact that your both running in the election, you need to be active/look like you have arguments (and who knows, you could even be trying to find the other mafia family).
Its been said before that the day 1 lynch is always a crapshoot. I'm willing to consider other people, but I haven't seen a better argument for anyone else, I don't think more information can be gained from killing anyone else.
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and killing myself or Redtooth gives you what information? Please break this down because so far not a single one of you has told us WHAT information we'll be getting. This is why I keep saying you're being illogical in your "arguments".
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well of course i'm not going to ask for you all to lynch me, but is redtooth really the best suspect? do you lynch the wise-guy or the godfather?... i would prefer to cut off the head rather than cut off a hand. If I am elected I will be pulling together a list of some of the more influential members of this discussion and we will vote on who to lynch. you may abstain if you wish, but i frown upon that. doing nothing is still doing something, and that something IS NOT helping the town.
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Information:
If flip red we can analyze:
Vocal Supporters
Who voted for you for mayor, particularly while giving little reason
Vocal accusers (L, Myself, laaan) are very likely not in the same mafia family as you
People trying to distract attention from accusations toward you without offering a real argument
A relatively large amount of posts to analyze from the perspective of a mafia from a specific family
If you flip green, it's fair to analyze:
Vocal accusers seem more suspicious
Voters for the most vocal accusers
People who suddenly bandwagon against you late in the thread/without reason
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In addition to DoctorH's post:
I wrote about this in my first long post, I see connections between you, Redtooth, and possibly other people like decefchicken and abenson. and if your red, we can connect you to one of the clues, and thus rule out other people who also fit the same clue. If your green, then it still leaves suspicion on the people who fit the clue.
And I'm going to bed now, no more posts from me for like 12 hours.
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Having a vote like this would help to see who is voting for who. Voting patterns could help to see WHO is in WHAT mafia. Having that indicated is the true goal of the town in a game that is based around 3 factions with the town having to eliminate both of the mafias equally.
Clue analysis will only work to a point. Sun Tzu says that that knowing the enemy is half the battle. You will only win half of the battles when you don't see everything. We need to know who is the town, who is in mafia A, and who is in mafia B.
IF YOU VOTE FOR ME, YOU WILL BE VOTING FOR LIBERTY, EQUALITY, AND POWER OF THE TOWN!
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Your post doesn't make any sense
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On February 15 2010 12:36 Iaaan wrote:
My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful.
For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game.
Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town.
So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice.
On February 15 2010 11:12 redtooth wrote:
to all the people that think killing a veteran scum makes the mafia lose leadership: the dead don't really die, they just go quiet. think about it. thInk Real Carefully about it. btw if you managed to figure that out, guess who loses the most leadership when an allied veteran dies.
why the hell are people voting for citizen? he's not a good pick. you have absolute zero information on the guy and he's proven himself in a total of one games and has yet to post anything reasonable or thought-provoking in the thread. normally Ver would be a good pick (i stated this in my PM that i posted) but THERE ARE REASONS WHY WE SHOULDN'T ELECT HIM NOW. DrH is a spammer (scum behavior much?), Ace should be avoided for now, and i guess L is the next best pick. BC is finally starting to talk so we'll steadily get more information on him.
The key is that the mafia need an experienced (key word experienced) leader in order to reach victory. The town does not need an experienced leader to reach victory, they only need a competent leader, by which nearly everyone fulfills this standard. Allied veteran leaders are replaceable, mafia veteran leaders are not. In my first two games I almost singlehandedly led the town to victory without the help of any of these so called "veterans".
In hindsight, calling these players "veterans" is a huge misnomer. MrBabyHands is only a veteran because he snuck into a mafia irc chatroom and found all the mafia. Great analysis there buddy, you really found those mafia good. Don't be intimidated by these "veteran" players, they usually suck. The only good thing about the veterans is that a few of them are guaranteed to be mafia because everyone thinks they are good.
As of right now, there is no reason to not vote for BM. He has more clearly demonstrated reason to be affiliated with the town than any other person besides maybe Chezinu. But Chezinu is guaranteed to fuck something up if he's in office so we got to avoid that situation.
Sugiura, any way to make that count only count posts greater than 4 lines? Honestly I'm considering just spamming a bunch of one line posts to get my count up there before someone comes in and says I'm mafia cause I've only posted 4 times. Yet my posts have contained more information than everyone else on that list, save the people at the top (L, Ace, DoctorH, etc)
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On February 15 2010 15:07 Iaaan wrote:
And I'm going to bed now, no more posts from me for like 12 hours.
NOBODY CARES!
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On February 15 2010 12:27 Iaaan wrote:
I'm happy your not worrying about me, but I have a posting coming up on why you are mafia. You'll be happy that its not based off clues.
NOBODY CARES!
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Sugiura, any way to make that count only count posts greater than 4 lines? Honestly I'm considering just spamming a bunch of one line posts to get my count up there before someone comes in and says I'm mafia cause I've only posted 4 times.
LOL
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On February 15 2010 11:27 Iaaan wrote:
Wait for Ace's post before you 'defend' him.
NOBODY CARES!
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On February 15 2010 08:44 Iaaan wrote:
lol @ BM
NOBODY CARES!
STOP FILLING THE THREAD WITH USELESS POSTS! STOP HELPING THE MAFIA! STOP MAKING ME WANNA KILL MYSELF EVERYTIME I NEED TO READ THE THREAD! POST SOMETHING USEFUL!
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On February 15 2010 15:04 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Information:
If flip red we can analyze:
Vocal Supporters
Who voted for you for mayor, particularly while giving little reason
Vocal accusers (L, Myself, laaan) are very likely not in the same mafia family as you
People trying to distract attention from accusations toward you without offering a real argument
A relatively large amount of posts to analyze from the perspective of a mafia from a specific family
If you flip green, it's fair to analyze:
Vocal accusers seem more suspicious
Voters for the most vocal accusers
People who suddenly bandwagon against you late in the thread/without reason
If I flip red you can't analyze my vocal supporters. There aren't any. No one has supported me so far, only people who have said you guys may be wrong. That isn't support.
It doesn't matter if you're not in the same family - you'd still be suspect.
Who has tried to distract attention from this argument? List them please.
For the very last time, you can't analyze my posts. In fact before you even try and get me killed it might be a wise idea and analyze them now to see what you can find. And by analyze I don't mean "hey guys, look what Ace said" but more akin to what links if any you can see to other people. I ask this sincerely because before you try and kill me on the basis I'm Mafia you should do this BEFORE offing me to make sure you have some clue of what you are doing. Needless to say I think you're so off tangent so this will hopefully show you why you're wrong.
Now if you lynch me when I'm innocent you don't even get any more information based on my last paragraph. You have nothing to link me on. Nothing. you'd start the next day with the SAME information as the last. If you can prove me wrong, do it now by examining my posts and see what you can find that is going to be so mind blowing to the town it gets us a path to the Mafia.
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ok time to explicitly lay out why i stopped trusting ace. first off, i never fully trusted ace. this is something you guys somehow made up. i was simply stating that L was being really hasty trying to kill off Ace based solely on day 1 clues. talking about that would be beating a dead horse so let's move on. but so far let's give him a trust score of 50 or neutral (i don't trust him but i don't distrust him and i don't think we should random kill him).
ok so i never really trusted ace but i didn't have any particular suspicions of him. as a matter of fact i may even have had less suspicion of him due to the fact L acted so suspicious himself and was accusing Ace so hard (Ace score: 40 or little more trustworthy). nice. follow me so far? also remember that i still hadn't read any profile or the clues up to this point. cool.
then i realized L was onto something with the fact that the day post was more content-rich than ever before. so i went and analyzed Ace's clues and found them a little far-fetched but couldn't find a better alternative for that persona. clue analysis isn't my specialty so whatever but i lost a little bit of trust for Ace. Ace score: 50 again.
then Ace and I exchanged a few private words. when i said not to vote for Ver, i didn't want to reveal the reasons why at the time because Ver could just be proactive against the reasons and take the initiative. Ace immediately responded with a "why redtooth?" and i was extremely surprised that he didn't understand why. so i sent him a PM explaining what i thought (the PM posted on my election platform). Ace replied with a PM basically saying "I know, I agree, miscellaneous information".
by now you'll have realized Ace doesn't give a crap about what other people think. so there was no reason for him to ask me why, especially if he already knew what i was thinking. and Ace is also known for not sharing information via private means unless you are guaranteed (like DT rolecheck guaranteed) town-aligned or he's doing a trap on you.
so by now all the alarms in my head are going off. i began wondering if he realized that i was backing him pretty hard and was hoping i'd continue blindly trusting/supporting him (typical scum behavior). not too much to go off of but enough to lower my trust and be suspicious (Ace score: 60, a bit more suspicious). at this point i notified L that i didn't really trust Ace and that he should continue pressing him to see what turns up.
the reason why i didn't want to reveal this is the huge number of possibilities i have with Ace. but then i realized they won't work (lol i remember the millions of times RoL tried to get Ace's trust and have it backfire), correspondence between us two pretty much died, and you guys still don't trust me. so whatever might as well show why.
now that i've explained everything and come clean, will you vote me mayor?
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On February 15 2010 15:07 Iaaan wrote:
In addition to DoctorH's post:
I wrote about this in my first long post, I see connections between you, Redtooth, and possibly other people like decefchicken and abenson. and if your red, we can connect you to one of the clues, and thus rule out other people who also fit the same clue. If your green, then it still leaves suspicion on the people who fit the clue.
And I'm going to bed now, no more posts from me for like 12 hours.
so...because decaf and Abenson voted for me if I flip red that makes them suspicious? How about when I flip green? You don't get any further information about either of them. Hence, you're still on the wrong track.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On February 15 2010 15:16 redtooth wrote:
now that i've explained everything and come clean, will you vote me mayor?
If Bill Murray wasn't in the picture, I'd probably vote for you.
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On February 15 2010 15:19 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 15:16 redtooth wrote:
now that i've explained everything and come clean, will you vote me mayor? If Bill Murray wasn't in the picture, I'd probably vote for you. there are two elected positions dude.
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i feel like the mafia are trying to disrupt the flow of the town and cause confusion and chaos.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i47.tinypic.com/hx9rb9.png)
