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[Patch 4.21] Rek'Sai General Discussion - Page 81

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Starting Page 94 spamming will in GD will be warned, please don't post for the sake of post count. Keep it civil.

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wei2coolman
Profile Joined November 2010
United States60033 Posts
January 04 2015 22:20 GMT
#1601
Holy shit, this cheese is unreal. DL is Trist, his support is Thresh (starts bracers + pots). They spawn on red side.
They do gromp at level 1, gives the last hit to Thresh. Thresh at half health after burning a pot and tanking gromp, gets some health back for getting gromp. Enters lane almost level 2, last hits 2 minions creeps to get him and DL back to full health, instantly all ins the enemy laners with 1 level advantage, completely shit stomps enemy Cait and Janna, forces Cait to burn heal+flash instantly, shoves lane in, denies early cs and recks her lane.
liftlift > tsm
Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35174 Posts
January 04 2015 22:21 GMT
#1602
This entire conversation is cancer.
wei2coolman
Profile Joined November 2010
United States60033 Posts
January 04 2015 22:22 GMT
#1603
On January 05 2015 07:21 Gahlo wrote:
This entire conversation is cancer.

+ Show Spoiler +
you mean this conversation is smoking?
liftlift > tsm
ZERG_RUSSIAN
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
10417 Posts
January 04 2015 22:24 GMT
#1604
Boys, boys, it's MMR factor. We just can't measure it.
I'm on GOLD CHAIN
Goumindong
Profile Joined February 2013
United States3529 Posts
January 04 2015 22:27 GMT
#1605
Ok suppose we have three variables y,x and z. And we want to run a model to figure out y=xB+ e. Let y and e be a nx1 vector and x and z be nxk and B be kx1 vector. E is our error term. We assume x'e = 0 x'z and z'y =\= 0.

If we solve y=xB +e for B we multiply by x' and invert and get B=(x'x)^-1 x'y Ok pretty simple.

But if we have y= xB+zG+e instead (and G isn't zero by z'y is not zero). Then we do the operation and get B= (x'x)^-1 x'y + (x'x)^-1 x'zG. The last term of which is bias.

You may say "but I am not doing a regression" and he answer is that yes, you are, you just have a specific form of the x matrix which lets you separate everything. But it doesn't nullify the bias problem. Which will exist if dragons correlate with gold and if dragons correlate with winning. Now, you can definitely check to see if dragons correlate with gold and if it doesn't you're golden. But we know that they correlate with winning (first dragon has what kind of win %?)

*technically we are working on expectations but I don't want to bother writing that out over and over again.
Goumindong
Profile Joined February 2013
United States3529 Posts
January 04 2015 22:31 GMT
#1606
On January 05 2015 07:17 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2015 07:05 Goumindong wrote:
On January 05 2015 05:36 wei2coolman wrote:
On January 05 2015 05:26 Sufficiency wrote:
On January 05 2015 05:22 wei2coolman wrote:
On January 05 2015 05:19 Sufficiency wrote:
On January 05 2015 00:50 Goumindong wrote:
On January 04 2015 16:32 Sufficiency wrote:
On January 04 2015 16:30 Goumindong wrote:
On January 04 2015 16:07 Sufficiency wrote:
[quote]

I believe the team wins more because they have visit Team Liquid at least once a week. I think I should also include a variable of how many times they visited Team Liquid during the last 72 hours. The gold and the player skills help, but ultimate it's because they visit Team Liquid that they are better players, and then because they are better players they get more gold.


So you're saying that, as of champion select finishing, no team composition has an advantage over another? That, as of champion select, no team of players in ranked has an advantage over any other?

An easy example. There are 5 players on team A all playing their mains and team B has 5 AD mains. Does team A or B have a better chance to win given the players mixed role mmr is the same? I would suggest that team a has a better win chance and that they will acquire gold because of that. What if team a has good counter picks and so easily wins lane. Does that effect the gold acquisition? Of course all that does.

That is why it's hard to say that the win % at a gold difference is the impact. That doesn't mean we can't generalize from very specific summary stats but it does mean that the value we are looking at is a mix of the indication and the impact with no clear way to disentangle the two.

If we don't care about disentangling them then you should be good to go. But you should still disentangle the effect of the dragons.


I totally agree with what you said. But I also think we need to disentangle the effect of visiting TL. Or maybe the effect of being born in June. Or the effect of left-handedness. Or the effect of playing the game during the night instead of during the day. Or maybe they are Koreans!

I think your suggested model is deeply flawed because it does not account for any of the aforementioned factors above. All of those above have deep, profound impact on gold acquisition.


I can tell you quite simply why I think dragons are correlated with winning. Why would being left handed or visiting TL?(those effects, if they legitimately make you a better player would be nullified by MMR adjustments and so should have no effect). I can tell you quite simply how random chance gives some teams advantages over others at the same mmr (basically some teams will randomly have more people in their best role. Some teams will have people whose play styles mesh etc). But no such explanations exist for why those things correlate with individual game win probability.

If you don't care that is fine, but you're supposedly refuting an "impact" statement and not stating that a gold lead is more indicative of a higher win rate.



Let me ask you a different question: do you think smoking causes cancer?

Because I can give you the argument that smoking does NOT cause cancer using what you just wrote.

"Smoking leads to increased chance of lung cancer" is a very different statement than "Smoking causes cancer."


Let me rephrase then: gold lead increases chance of winning when comparing 4.21 to 4.19. Therefore, gold lead is more impactful.

Do you have Pearson's R value to back that up?

Also, less free objective gold on maps means you'd have to adjust scaling of gold values worth in predicting winners in game. Essentially comparing two different currencies, without taking scaling into account.


No. He is saying he doesn't care about the fact that there is less free gold on the map. He is only making a prediction and making no other statement. He just isn't saying that when he makes his claim.

Also sufficiency "omitted variable bias" is a big fucking deal in science. Dragons are not hidden and can be observed. They correlate both with winning and with gold lead and so if you are running stats on win% by gold lead stratum you will bias your results.

This is it is not same as saying that there is a hidden MMR that matters because mmr neither correlates with cancer or with smoking. (Though if it did and it was exogenous you would want to include it)

But you do want to include dragons because it does correlate with both. Seriously you can do the math yourself to show it in 1 minute. Additionally it should be noted that while most "your model is bad" knocks are IV complaints, omitted variable model specification complaints are very common.

It would be really interesting if the number of dragons taken actually didn't have a significant effect on the game when compared to gold lead at given points--like, if when things were even, dragons mattered, but if there was an X amount of gold lead or higher, dragons had no effect on outcome of game.

It definitely would. It's one reason I suggested the "broad" summary statistic method which broke gold lead into "gold lead with x dragons and enemy y dragons and some such". It would make the table bigger, but much more interesting and more valuable from a prediction standpoint.
wei2coolman
Profile Joined November 2010
United States60033 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-01-04 22:37:33
January 04 2015 22:34 GMT
#1607
On January 05 2015 07:31 Goumindong wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2015 07:17 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:
On January 05 2015 07:05 Goumindong wrote:
On January 05 2015 05:36 wei2coolman wrote:
On January 05 2015 05:26 Sufficiency wrote:
On January 05 2015 05:22 wei2coolman wrote:
On January 05 2015 05:19 Sufficiency wrote:
On January 05 2015 00:50 Goumindong wrote:
On January 04 2015 16:32 Sufficiency wrote:
On January 04 2015 16:30 Goumindong wrote:
[quote]

So you're saying that, as of champion select finishing, no team composition has an advantage over another? That, as of champion select, no team of players in ranked has an advantage over any other?

An easy example. There are 5 players on team A all playing their mains and team B has 5 AD mains. Does team A or B have a better chance to win given the players mixed role mmr is the same? I would suggest that team a has a better win chance and that they will acquire gold because of that. What if team a has good counter picks and so easily wins lane. Does that effect the gold acquisition? Of course all that does.

That is why it's hard to say that the win % at a gold difference is the impact. That doesn't mean we can't generalize from very specific summary stats but it does mean that the value we are looking at is a mix of the indication and the impact with no clear way to disentangle the two.

If we don't care about disentangling them then you should be good to go. But you should still disentangle the effect of the dragons.


I totally agree with what you said. But I also think we need to disentangle the effect of visiting TL. Or maybe the effect of being born in June. Or the effect of left-handedness. Or the effect of playing the game during the night instead of during the day. Or maybe they are Koreans!

I think your suggested model is deeply flawed because it does not account for any of the aforementioned factors above. All of those above have deep, profound impact on gold acquisition.


I can tell you quite simply why I think dragons are correlated with winning. Why would being left handed or visiting TL?(those effects, if they legitimately make you a better player would be nullified by MMR adjustments and so should have no effect). I can tell you quite simply how random chance gives some teams advantages over others at the same mmr (basically some teams will randomly have more people in their best role. Some teams will have people whose play styles mesh etc). But no such explanations exist for why those things correlate with individual game win probability.

If you don't care that is fine, but you're supposedly refuting an "impact" statement and not stating that a gold lead is more indicative of a higher win rate.



Let me ask you a different question: do you think smoking causes cancer?

Because I can give you the argument that smoking does NOT cause cancer using what you just wrote.

"Smoking leads to increased chance of lung cancer" is a very different statement than "Smoking causes cancer."


Let me rephrase then: gold lead increases chance of winning when comparing 4.21 to 4.19. Therefore, gold lead is more impactful.

Do you have Pearson's R value to back that up?

Also, less free objective gold on maps means you'd have to adjust scaling of gold values worth in predicting winners in game. Essentially comparing two different currencies, without taking scaling into account.


No. He is saying he doesn't care about the fact that there is less free gold on the map. He is only making a prediction and making no other statement. He just isn't saying that when he makes his claim.

Also sufficiency "omitted variable bias" is a big fucking deal in science. Dragons are not hidden and can be observed. They correlate both with winning and with gold lead and so if you are running stats on win% by gold lead stratum you will bias your results.

This is it is not same as saying that there is a hidden MMR that matters because mmr neither correlates with cancer or with smoking. (Though if it did and it was exogenous you would want to include it)

But you do want to include dragons because it does correlate with both. Seriously you can do the math yourself to show it in 1 minute. Additionally it should be noted that while most "your model is bad" knocks are IV complaints, omitted variable model specification complaints are very common.

It would be really interesting if the number of dragons taken actually didn't have a significant effect on the game when compared to gold lead at given points--like, if when things were even, dragons mattered, but if there was an X amount of gold lead or higher, dragons had no effect on outcome of game.

It definitely would. It's one reason I suggested the "broad" summary statistic method which broke gold lead into "gold lead with x dragons and enemy y dragons and some such". It would make the table bigger, but much more interesting and more valuable from a prediction standpoint.

It wouldn't be hard to do either, considering Dragons are fairly minimal whole categories.
liftlift > tsm
Lmui
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada6223 Posts
January 04 2015 22:38 GMT
#1608
On January 05 2015 07:20 wei2coolman wrote:
Holy shit, this cheese is unreal. DL is Trist, his support is Thresh (starts bracers + pots). They spawn on red side.
They do gromp at level 1, gives the last hit to Thresh. Thresh at half health after burning a pot and tanking gromp, gets some health back for getting gromp. Enters lane almost level 2, last hits 2 minions creeps to get him and DL back to full health, instantly all ins the enemy laners with 1 level advantage, completely shit stomps enemy Cait and Janna, forces Cait to burn heal+flash instantly, shoves lane in, denies early cs and recks her lane.


This has been happening ever since they changed the jungle.

Red side has a bit of an advantage since the gromp has less health overall than double golems and you generally miss one less creep than blue side for taking the camp.

It's Janna/Cait's fault for not respecting the fact that they took the gromp, it's rather obvious that they took it when one guy's chugging a potion.
Goumindong
Profile Joined February 2013
United States3529 Posts
January 04 2015 22:44 GMT
#1609
Blue sides jungler probably started double golems negating the ability of his lane to take it. IMO Blue side junglers need to be tromp start Instead of doubles in order to prevent that situation
TheYango
Profile Joined September 2008
United States47024 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-01-04 23:52:40
January 04 2015 23:47 GMT
#1610
On January 05 2015 06:04 Sufficiency wrote:
I don't think it is causal, nor did I mention the word "cause", or "causal" anywhere. I certainly did not think "causal" when I wrote it since it's observational data, nor did I try to phrase it in a certain way that may make a reader think that it's "causal".

The problem is that in two instances, you've used your findings as a counterargument to what people are theorizing to be a causal relationship. Both the discussion at hand when you posted your results, as well as your TL;DR on Reddit make it appear as you are making a causal connection based on context.

This is more semantics than anything else, but you did misrepresent your position with the way you presented your results on TL and Reddit.

Essentially, you are claiming that your statement is not meant to be an "impact" statement, but when you frame your findings as a response to an "impact" statement, it's hard to not interpret yours as the opposing "impact" statement without you explicitly saying so.
Moderator
iCanada
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada10660 Posts
January 05 2015 00:34 GMT
#1611
On January 05 2015 08:47 TheYango wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2015 06:04 Sufficiency wrote:
I don't think it is causal, nor did I mention the word "cause", or "causal" anywhere. I certainly did not think "causal" when I wrote it since it's observational data, nor did I try to phrase it in a certain way that may make a reader think that it's "causal".

The problem is that in two instances, you've used your findings as a counterargument to what people are theorizing to be a causal relationship. Both the discussion at hand when you posted your results, as well as your TL;DR on Reddit make it appear as you are making a causal connection based on context.

This is more semantics than anything else, but you did misrepresent your position with the way you presented your results on TL and Reddit.

Essentially, you are claiming that your statement is not meant to be an "impact" statement, but when you frame your findings as a response to an "impact" statement, it's hard to not interpret yours as the opposing "impact" statement without you explicitly saying so.


Its the way he phrased it, "more important to" implies causation, just being a counterpoint does not imply causation, imo. You dont have to prove something else causes something to prove that the thing someone says causes it isn't true. In fact, even if one thing did cause another, it doesn't rule out that the second thing doesn't cause it.

Shoulda said something to the effect of "Gold lead is shown as a better predictor to success than it was before" in lieu of what he said.

The semantics are real.

o.o
ShaLLoW[baY]
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
Canada12499 Posts
January 05 2015 00:58 GMT
#1612
On January 05 2015 07:38 Lmui wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2015 07:20 wei2coolman wrote:
Holy shit, this cheese is unreal. DL is Trist, his support is Thresh (starts bracers + pots). They spawn on red side.
They do gromp at level 1, gives the last hit to Thresh. Thresh at half health after burning a pot and tanking gromp, gets some health back for getting gromp. Enters lane almost level 2, last hits 2 minions creeps to get him and DL back to full health, instantly all ins the enemy laners with 1 level advantage, completely shit stomps enemy Cait and Janna, forces Cait to burn heal+flash instantly, shoves lane in, denies early cs and recks her lane.


This has been happening ever since they changed the jungle.

Red side has a bit of an advantage since the gromp has less health overall than double golems and you generally miss one less creep than blue side for taking the camp.

It's Janna/Cait's fault for not respecting the fact that they took the gromp, it's rather obvious that they took it when one guy's chugging a potion.


It's rather obvious they took it when they have 1 cs when they come to lane lol
ALEXISONFIRE ARE FUCKING BACK (sAviOr for life)
Zess
Profile Joined July 2012
Adun Toridas!9144 Posts
January 05 2015 02:01 GMT
#1613
Here's a better way to judge impact:

Previously, teams winning in Dragons and losing in gold lead were just losing because Dragons were only gold (and experience, but rarely do you find teams ahead in gold yet behind in experience).

Now, teams winning in gold could be behind in Dragons.

To evaluate the impact of gold in the next patch, find teams ahead in gold by (X+1.5k) but behind in Dragons and see which one is worth more, the 4.19 Dragon = 1.5k Gold or the 4.20 Dragon = Dragon.
Administrator@TL_Zess
| (• ◡•)|八 (❍ᴥ❍ʋ)
Slusher
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States19143 Posts
January 05 2015 02:24 GMT
#1614
chat down on na or is it me?
Carrilord has arrived.
krndandaman
Profile Joined August 2009
Mozambique16569 Posts
January 05 2015 06:50 GMT
#1615
--- Nuked ---
ShaLLoW[baY]
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
Canada12499 Posts
January 05 2015 07:48 GMT
#1616
i keep getting those "accept certificate" messages in the shop and when i accept the shop unfreezes, have you tried checking for popup dialog windows?
ALEXISONFIRE ARE FUCKING BACK (sAviOr for life)
krndandaman
Profile Joined August 2009
Mozambique16569 Posts
January 05 2015 09:58 GMT
#1617
--- Nuked ---
Uldridge
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Belgium5234 Posts
January 05 2015 14:35 GMT
#1618
2 questions on runing:

Someone like Riven: flat ad mixed with arpen or flad ad + armor/mr + health or arpen + armor/mr + health?

On adc's with big range, so like only Caitlyn, maybe Varus, wouldn't it be more interesting to have a bit more attack speed than standard runing allows? Or is the most optimal just preference/matchup dependent from a certain level?
Taxes are for Terrans
Mensol
Profile Joined September 2012
14536 Posts
January 05 2015 14:41 GMT
#1619
OGN no longer being broadcasted on the Ongamenet twitch channel but on Riot's official channel



So Riot bought OGN LoL and we get free HD stream? sweeeet.
If you don't know what the fuck you are doing, how are your enemies supposed to know what the fuck you are doing. - imaqtpie on NA teams at Worlds.
Sponkz
Profile Joined May 2011
Denmark4564 Posts
January 05 2015 14:53 GMT
#1620
On January 05 2015 07:27 Goumindong wrote:
Ok suppose we have three variables y,x and z. And we want to run a model to figure out y=xB+ e. Let y and e be a nx1 vector and x and z be nxk and B be kx1 vector. E is our error term. We assume x'e = 0 x'z and z'y =\= 0.

If we solve y=xB +e for B we multiply by x' and invert and get B=(x'x)^-1 x'y Ok pretty simple.

But if we have y= xB+zG+e instead (and G isn't zero by z'y is not zero). Then we do the operation and get B= (x'x)^-1 x'y + (x'x)^-1 x'zG. The last term of which is bias.

You may say "but I am not doing a regression" and he answer is that yes, you are, you just have a specific form of the x matrix which lets you separate everything. But it doesn't nullify the bias problem. Which will exist if dragons correlate with gold and if dragons correlate with winning. Now, you can definitely check to see if dragons correlate with gold and if it doesn't you're golden. But we know that they correlate with winning (first dragon has what kind of win %?)

*technically we are working on expectations but I don't want to bother writing that out over and over again.



I know i only got a D in math, but holy shit that post is pure garbage. You're throwing equations here and there, but you aren't making ANY sense.
hi
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