On October 24 2013 20:42 Arrinao wrote: My point all the time was like this:
The success of WoW's scale was primarily caused by reaching out to casuals who formed the overwhelming majority of it's subscriptions. It may had pull in majority of subscribers of other MMO's, but that only played a minor role in it's success
Which the numbers, provided in my last post, prove to be correct.
Ah, so it's a), then: you fail to appreciate that the number of new players WoW brought in is irrelevant to your argument. Allow me to explain:
And jumping back to topic, success this way is no longer possible. There was the original MOBA scene, represented by DotA alone. Riot stepped in and expanded the bubble. Now Blizzard steps into this expanded bubble. Can it expands the bubble even more? Possibly. Can it expand it to be twice as big, luring ALL of the newcomers to itself (to be actually able to challenge LoL)? Nigh on impossible.
Note the bolded text. Your implication is that Blizzard's game can only challenge LoL if it doubles the size of the scene.
Now, answer me this: If WoW had not grown the MMORPG scene, do the graphs I linked indicate that it would STILL have gained market dominance?
The answer is yes. Even if WoW had brought in zero new players, enough players moved over from other, pre-existing MMORPGs to have made WoW the dominant game.
One more time. Here is your line of reasoning:
1. While rising to dominance, WoW greatly expanded the MMORPG scene 2. Most of WoW's subscribers were new to the genre 3. It's unlikely that a new Blizzard game could greatly expand the MOBA scene 4. Therefore it's unlikely that a new Blizzard MOBA could become dominant
This line of reasoning is flawed because evidence indicates WoW would have become dominant even if it hadn't brought in new players.
Here is the correct line of reasoning:
1. While rising to dominance, WoW greatly expanded the MMORPG scene. 2. Although most WoW subscribers were new to the genre, it also stole the majority of existing MMORPG subscribers. 3. It's unlikely that a new Blizzard game could greatly expand the MOBA scene 4. However, a new Blizzard game could still become dominant if it steals the majority of existing MOBA players just like WoW did in the MMORPG genre.
Now do you understand? Yes, stealing the subscribers of other games WAS only a small part of WoW's total success, but it would still have been enough to make it dominant.
Whoa dude another misinterpretation. You just don't read the paragraphs as a whole and are picking on sentences that bother you, pulling them out of context in the process. I must appreciate though that you didn't quote just that sentence, so I can correct you right away.
Look at that quote and read the first sentence. This was my point. I did not deny that Blizzard can (if I can use that metaphor again) recolor the bubble. All I was doing after, including that bolded sentence which bothered you so much, was simply expanding that argument. I never said
Your implication is that Blizzard's game can only challenge LoL if it doubles the size of the scene
this. It's just that you interpreted it as that. So your assumption of my reasoning is correct up to number 3.
Otherwise I agree... to a degree To a degree, because I'm not sure you are actually aware of what would it take, especially if you are going to compare pre WoW MMO scene to current MOBA scene. That would require one thing, that Blizzard can't have any influence on. In almost every article detailing the success of WoW you can find that when it entered the MMO market, something happened. Something what media interpreted as "the king has shot himself in the leg". And that was release of Everquest 2. A direct successor to the go-to game that was released in very premature and buggy state, causing players of EQ to first leave for EQ2 and then migrate to WoW which means that Everquest franchise effectively killed itself.
I'm not gonna argue with you that this was the reason for WoW success because as your graph shows, Everquest though mainstream at the time, wasn't actually that dominant at all (altough it's very possible that if EQ didn't screw up so badly, things would be different). What I am getting at here is that for Blizz in order to take the cake here, such thing would have to happen. And considering LoL's absolute dominance over the MOBA + the esport scene.... it would have to be a slip-up so grandiose, that world hasn't really seen yet. And even if such thing really happened, there would be another problem - middle-man. This time Blizzard would have to share the cake with Valve. And while it's true that Dota 2 targets mainly hardcore audience, I doubt it wouldn't jump on the opportunity and perhaps made a second version of itself with lowered newcomer barrier. Which would in the end probably propel Valve and not Blizzard to number 1 spot.
In the end this means that even if Riot actually did such a grandiose misstep, such thing would effectively have to happen again. What are chances of that happening?
On October 25 2013 00:33 Arrinao wrote: Whoa dude another misinterpretation. You just don't read the paragraphs as a whole and are picking on sentences that bother you, pulling them out of context in the process. I must appreciate though that you didn't quote just that sentence, so I can correct you right away.
Well, let's see:
I don't think there will be any massive exodus simply because just like with WoW and other MMO's released after it, people didn't switch since they already invested a lot in the game they loved.
Btw. are you really trying to tell me that WoW came out and EQ servers were empty all of a sudden? Please.
The context for that sentence is consistent denial that becoming dominant through merit / stealing subs is an option. Was it really so unfair of me to read it as "The only other option for dominance is to double the size of the scene, which can't happen either"?
Otherwise I agree... to a degree To a degree, because I'm not sure you are actually aware of what would it take, especially if you are going to compare pre WoW MMO scene to current MOBA scene. That would require one thing, that Blizzard can't have any influence on. In almost every article detailing the success of WoW you can find that when it entered the MMO market, something happened. Something what media interpreted as "the king has shot himself in the leg". And that was release of Everquest 2. A direct successor to the go-to game that was released in very premature and buggy state, causing players of EQ to first leave for EQ2 and then migrate to WoW which means that Everquest franchise effectively killed itself.
But it wasn't just EQ, it was pretty much across the board. Yes, EQ2 was a flop, but it's a stretch to claim that WoW wouldn't have siphoned away EQ subscriptions without it, given what happened elsewhere.
Don't get me wrong: I'm not suggesting Blizzard will have an easy time of it. It may well not happen. All I'm arguing is that WoW does demonstrate that a high quality product can and has peeled very large numbers of players away from games they're heavily invested in.
I think you maybe just came across a bit more hard-line than you actually are. You seemed so adamant that "growing the scene is the only way to dominate, and LoL has already done it", hence the pickiness on my part. No hard feelings?
Final thought: until WoW came out, everyone thought EQ was WoW. Everyone playing it thought "That's it done properly". Even if there isn't room to grow the scene tenfold, there's still room for significant improvement.
The context for that sentence is consistent denial that becoming dominant through merit / stealing subs is an option. Was it really so unfair of me to read it as "The only other option for dominance is to double the size of the scene, which can't happen either"?
All I really have to say to those two quotes you provided is simply: "Did it happen or not?" Do you consider me being in denial, when I'm simply stating the facts? Note that in the first quote I didn't say "There won't be any massive exodus simply because just like with WoW and other MMO's released after it, people didn't switch since they already invested a lot in the game they loved." I said I don't think so. That isn't a denial expression, that is simply assumption.
But it wasn't just EQ, it was pretty much across the board. Yes, EQ2 was a flop, but it's a stretch to claim that WoW wouldn't have siphoned away EQ subscriptions without it, given what happened elsewhere.
I agree, hence
On October 25 2013 00:33 Arrinao wrote: I'm not gonna argue with you that this was the reason for WoW success because as your graph shows, Everquest though mainstream at the time, wasn't actually that dominant at all
*
Don't get me wrong: I'm not suggesting Blizzard will have an easy time of it. It may well not happen. All I'm arguing is that WoW does demonstrate that a high quality product can and has peeled very large numbers of players away from games they're heavily invested in.
Let me return a favor and nitpick you here as I feel we’re getting to a core of the difference of our points of view. I think that you don't see the fact, that (as I said in my of my previous posts) in the success of WoW or LoL scale, the game quality is just one of the factors and most certainly not the deciding one. I played through a total of 4 MMO's including WoW and if you asked me which one was best, I'd probably say Neverwinter or Tera, not WoW. Again on the MOBA scene even though I may look like as a LoL fan and I indeed play LoL with my friends, if you asked me the same question, I would say Smite without hesitation. LoL comes out 3rd at best. But my friends play LoL and I play with them. Just to prevent myself from nitpicking - with these examples I don't want to say that all WoW players are actually Tera fans or whatever. What I'm getting at here is that they very well might be if they actually gave it a try. But guess what? They won't. They have WoW/LoL.
Let me sort out the three factors that I consider the most important, if a game is supposed to dominate on it's own -> that is, without outside turns of events like LoL slipping up described previously: In ascending order of importance: a.)Game quality. The game must not be crappy. It has to be good. But it really doesn't have to be best as being "best" is actually a pretty subjective considering lots of different preferences of people. b.)Marketing, brand recognition, etc. c.)Timing. Most important.
Blizzard had all three factors covered with the release of WoW. Even c.). As your graph shows, the competition in MMO market was actually pretty balanced and Everquest, even though considered mainstream, actually wasn't in a truly dominant position with just 2x as big audience, same as Final Fantasy. Plus it suicided with EQ2, so the industry turned to WoW, thanks to the fact that it had also very good b.). And ofc a.) so you won't nitpick me but I'm still adamant that b.) made more.
This time Blizzard again has a.) and b.) covered no doubt. However they utterly failed at c.). In fact my personal opinion is that there couldn't be worse time to release their MOBA then now. I couldn't believe they didn't release the MOBA back in 2011, and when it didn't come out then, I expected that it wouldn't come out until 2015, or simply until LoL and Dota 2 reach some kind of standstill. LoL is still growing and it doesn't really seem that the game itself is growing stale either - all the recent champions maybe with the exception of Lucian were awesome and unique in some way. To use analogy of WoW expansion releasing process I think that it's currently still maybe somewhere between Burning Crusade and Wrath Of the Lich King. Sure there will be Cataclysm someday but it's simply not happening now, and I don't understand why Blizzard didn't wait for it.
Of course the answer may be some ace up the sleeve... or simply the fact that I mentioned before, that Blizz isn't going for the crown and instead just wants a piece of cake, big enough to at least cover up for WoW's sub loss. For which the previously described b.) and c.) are more than sufficient. So to answer to your final thought. There is still a big room for improvement, no doubt. However for a game that is supposed to dominate an already expanded and dominated market - it's important ofc but not deciding.
And I know that heroes will be balanced and such, but realistically, which character should be the most powerful in a fight? For instance, if you compare Arthas to Kerrigan and to Diablo?
No items/gold or shop. Just a talent tree. I guess you are just supposed to fight the whole time or something. Didn't bloodline champions try something like this already? It seems Blizzards current trend is to take a popular genre, remove the economy system that gives the game depth, replace it with something brainless and then release the most casual experience possible. Maybe in LotV blizzard will remove minerals and gas from the game and you just get to build units on a CD because managing resources is annoying, hard, and turns casuals off from the game.
You can go opt-in for this game now on your battle.net page. Literally they put the game up in the beta profile settings 5 minutes after Dustin Browder announced it
EPT
To a degree, because I'm not sure you are actually aware of what would it take, especially if you are going to compare pre WoW MMO scene to current MOBA scene. That would require one thing, that Blizzard can't have any influence on. In almost every article detailing the success of WoW you can find that when it entered the MMO market, something happened. Something what media interpreted as "the king has shot himself in the leg". And that was release of Everquest 2. A direct successor to the go-to game that was released in very premature and buggy state, causing players of EQ to first leave for EQ2 and then migrate to WoW which means that Everquest franchise effectively killed itself. ![[image loading]](http://media.mmo-champion.com/images/news/2013/november/bconOpening03.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://media.mmo-champion.com/images/news/2013/november/bconOpening05.jpg)
