| Forum Index > General Forum |
NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
|
spets1
133 Posts
https://m.youtube.com/@DanielDavisDeepDive The usual suspects in this thread will all say it's Russian propaganda, but that's because they have been brainwashed with constant russophobia spat at them 24/7. And once again, I will say these guys are Americans, they want America to win but they don't delude people on realities on the ground | ||
|
MJG
United Kingdom1450 Posts
On November 20 2025 18:19 spets1 wrote: If you want real war analysts that are not Ukraine sided but have more of a neutral view and are American patriots watch https://m.youtube.com/@DanielDavisDeepDive The usual suspects in this thread will all say it's Russian propaganda, but that's because they have been brainwashed with constant russophobia spat at them 24/7. And once again, I will say these guys are Americans, they want America to win but they don't delude people on realities on the ground No amount of analysis can cover up the fact that Putin meant for this war to be over years ago. Come back when you're willing to admit that the fact we're still talking about Ukraine as an active warzone means that the Russian military failed and that Putin was wrong.  | ||
|
Nebuchad
Switzerland12425 Posts
On November 20 2025 14:59 spets1 wrote: Which part? They just said nonsense and posted a video that's 2 hrs long in which he got everything right. So tell me what did he get wrong? Let's just start with one thing. And I'll try to address it. What do you mean which part lol there were some pretty obvious things, probably the most obvious being whether Mearsheimer did or didn't say two weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine that Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine, that would be a big one. | ||
|
ZeroByte13
785 Posts
I am also not interested in discussion about whether it was justified or not, or who is right or wrong in that conflict. It was discussed and argued about thousand times by now, I have my opinion about this, and I believe I understand (more or less) what other people from different sides think about this and why. But I am interested in what is really happening and - especially - what can happen or is likely to happen next. | ||
|
0x64
Finland4609 Posts
On November 20 2025 14:55 ETisME wrote: This is a better analysis of Russia economy, I have a fair amount of economic history background. Sanctions are meant to be extremely powerful, and extremely effective. You guys probably forgot or didn't know, George Soros and other Fx traders alone caused the collapsed of multiple Asian currencies and economy to negative growth in 1997 financial crisis. These slow cracks aren't meant to be slow cracks. Russia could be entering stagflation, but so is Germany. Economy downturn isn't a crisis. Crisis of faith is how an economy collapses, and like the video said, Russia still got huge amount of tools, being the totalitarian state. Totalitarian states always collapse when you least expect it. Not a single fall of a dictator has been predictable. Even Saddam Hussein fell... Much faster than expected. Usually, it's just that regime collapses are feedback loops, so when the parameters are right, the collapse takes days or hours. And it's very different from economic collapse, so being able to maintain a war economy just doesn't save the dictator from this feedback loop, only the perceived risk on the life of those disagreeing does. "Can he kill me or my family before we can stop him" is the only question that matters. The main difference between Ukraine and Russia, is that Zelensky can visit his troops on the front line and trust them. Putin can't, not because he is a coward (he is...) but because he'd just get murdered by his troops. | ||
|
0x64
Finland4609 Posts
On November 20 2025 19:17 ZeroByte13 wrote: I am not American so I care little about American patriots views - especially given how everyone has their own opinion on who are true American patriots and who are pretenders who will destroy the country. I am also not interested in discussion about whether it was justified or not, or who is right or wrong in that conflict. It was discussed and argued about thousand times by now, I have my opinion about this, and I believe I understand (more or less) what other people from different sides think about this and why. But I am interested in what is really happening and - especially - what can happen or is likely to happen next. What's happening cannot really be discussed, like I don't see why we would start listing all the infrastructure going in flame in Russia, when the only argument we get in response is that it has no impact and that the war economy is secretly so strong that the tanks could drive without petrol. We see a reality of a quite fast changing situation, we get a wave of whataboutism from 3 persons that seems to think having elections and getting rid of Zelensky seems like the best way to go forward with the war for Ukrainians. So the most anti-Ukrainian pro-russian people are trying to give Ukrainians tips on how to win, fishy isn't it. Well, I will give a honest tip for pro-putin russians, hide your tracks, because after a regime collapse, the witch hunt is real. Anti-Putin Russians have been forced to silence by violence, don't expect kisses in return. All it will take is a grain of sand. | ||
|
spets1
133 Posts
On November 20 2025 19:08 Nebuchad wrote: What do you mean which part lol there were some pretty obvious things, probably the most obvious being whether Mearsheimer did or didn't say two weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine that Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine, that would be a big one. Ok I concede that he was wrong on that one. You were right about that one Mersheimer did get it completely wrong | ||
|
spets1
133 Posts
On November 20 2025 19:17 ZeroByte13 wrote: I am not American so I care little about American patriots views - especially given how everyone has their own opinion on who are true American patriots and who are pretenders who will destroy the country. I am also not interested in discussion about whether it was justified or not, or who is right or wrong in that conflict. It was discussed and argued about thousand times by now, I have my opinion about this, and I believe I understand (more or less) what other people from different sides think about this and why. But I am interested in what is really happening and - especially - what can happen or is likely to happen next. That same channel imo is doing a good job at showing whats happening and what's likely next. Latest example is the coverage of pokrovsk battles. They predicted that pokrovsk will fall to Russians and it did. There is another channel that I watch by a guy from Canada, he is also pretty objective but here he will be called a Russian asset And just a side note I dislike Putin but I look at the conflict through strategic eyes, so i get bashed by both sides as being a realist I get bashed by Putin bots and I get bashed by nafo bots | ||
|
maybenexttime
Poland5776 Posts
On November 20 2025 17:24 spets1 wrote: He does not "maintain that Putin's goal is not regime change". Wtf you on about. If he ever said that it was put out of context. "Regarding regime change, Mearsheimer states that Putin sought a shift in Ukraine's leadership away from the post-2014 government, which he viewed as hostile and Western-installed. He describes this as a limited goal: replacing the regime in Kyiv with one more neutral or pro-Russian to neutralize the NATO threat, without intending full occupation or territorial conquest. For instance, he notes that no Russian leader would tolerate a Western-aligned government in Ukraine, as it would threaten Russia's strategic buffer zone, and that Putin's pushback was a direct reaction to the West "installing" such a regime after the Euromaidan events." He even recently said, like couple days ago that Putin wants a regime change but he won't get it the current way things are looking. So can we put that argument to bed? Can you accept that you were wrong? Or is that impossible for you? So anything else he is wrong about? Okay, so he changed his mind after a few years? That hardly exonerates him. It was the stated goal from the very beginning. Also, toppling the government, installing a puppet (Viktor Medvedchuk), controlling Ukraine's internal and foreign policy (the laws, size of the military, alliances) are not "a limited goal". It's complete domination. I'm still waiting for you to address my counterarguments regarding the NATO threat nonsense. | ||
|
zeo
Serbia6336 Posts
On November 20 2025 20:42 maybenexttime wrote: Okay, so he changed his mind after a few years? That hardly exonerates him. It was the stated goal from the very beginning. Also, toppling the government, installing a puppet (Viktor Medvedchuk), controlling Ukraine's internal and foreign policy (the laws, size of the military, alliances) are not "a limited goal". It's complete domination. I'm still waiting for you to address my counterarguments regarding the NATO threat nonsense. Sooo, just what NATO countries did to Ukraine with the Maidan coup? Maybe you are just projecting | ||
|
MJG
United Kingdom1450 Posts
On November 20 2025 20:46 zeo wrote: Sooo, just what NATO countries did to Ukraine with the Maidan coup? Maybe you are just projecting Someone doesn't understand how popular uprisings work. Hardly surprising given that the instinctive Serbian response to a popular uprising is violence. | ||
|
ETisME
12702 Posts
On November 20 2025 19:17 0x64 wrote: Totalitarian states always collapse when you least expect it. Not a single fall of a dictator has been predictable. Even Saddam Hussein fell... Much faster than expected. Usually, it's just that regime collapses are feedback loops, so when the parameters are right, the collapse takes days or hours. And it's very different from economic collapse, so being able to maintain a war economy just doesn't save the dictator from this feedback loop, only the perceived risk on the life of those disagreeing does. "Can he kill me or my family before we can stop him" is the only question that matters. The main difference between Ukraine and Russia, is that Zelensky can visit his troops on the front line and trust them. Putin can't, not because he is a coward (he is...) but because he'd just get murdered by his troops. Not always, and plenty are long enduring and even evolve into something else. See NK, China for example. Even Taiwan was under an extremely fascist era for quite a long time. An economics collapse would have likely lead to a regime change, even then it's not guaranteed. | ||
|
Manit0u
Poland17712 Posts
On November 20 2025 17:24 spets1 wrote: He does not "maintain that Putin's goal is not regime change". Wtf you on about. If he ever said that it was put out of context. "Regarding regime change, Mearsheimer states that Putin sought a shift in Ukraine's leadership away from the post-2014 government, which he viewed as hostile and Western-installed. He describes this as a limited goal: replacing the regime in Kyiv with one more neutral or pro-Russian to neutralize the NATO threat, without intending full occupation or territorial conquest. For instance, he notes that no Russian leader would tolerate a Western-aligned government in Ukraine, as it would threaten Russia's strategic buffer zone, and that Putin's pushback was a direct reaction to the West "installing" such a regime after the Euromaidan events." He even recently said, like couple days ago that Putin wants a regime change but he won't get it the current way things are looking. So can we put that argument to bed? Can you accept that you were wrong? Or is that impossible for you? So anything else he is wrong about? So, we should invade Belarus because it's a dictatorship that's hostile to the West and pro-Russian and replace their government with people who are more neutral or pro-West to neutralize the Russian threat? No European leader would tolerate a Russian-aligned government on our borders as it would threaten Europe's strategic buffer zone. Such action would be a direct reaction to Russia "installing" such regime in ex-Soviet republics. | ||
|
Luolis
Finland7164 Posts
On November 20 2025 06:29 blomsterjohn wrote: While it's generally very much apparent that you (and some others on tl) support the Russian side of this war, it's not something thats normally spelled out this clear. So just to be clear you are supporting and essentially saying that Russia invading and starting a war with Ukraine is/was justified ? You'll be waiting for that answer for a while... | ||
|
ZeroByte13
785 Posts
| ||
|
0x64
Finland4609 Posts
On November 20 2025 21:17 ETisME wrote: Not always, and plenty are long enduring and even evolve into something else. See NK, China for example. Even Taiwan was under an extremely fascist era for quite a long time. An economics collapse would have likely lead to a regime change, even then it's not guaranteed. True, but this is based on the survival bias, those are exceptions rather than the rule. The list of toppled dictatorships in the last 70 years is very long and they had all in common that they looked just as strongly installed as Putin is today. NK is its own world. Russians do have plenty of freedom today compared to soviet time as well. China also managed to juggle between freedom and total control. The play is usually on the security vs freedom. If you don't have a threat, it's hard to convince the population to let freedom go. Hence NATO has to be a threat for Russia. The question for us europeans is not if and when Putin falls, but rather once he falls, is he replaced by the next dictator or does Russians chose at that point to deal with corruption | ||
|
zeo
Serbia6336 Posts
KYIV, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Ukraine and Russia have carried out a new exchange of bodies of dead soldiers, Ukrainian officials and Russian state media said on Thursday. Ukraine said it received 1,000 bodies and Russian state news agency TASS quoted an unidentified source as saying Moscow got back 30. 30 RUS soldiers 1000 UKR soldiers The rest of the official exchanges over the last year: 8 November 2024 37 RUS soldiers 563 UKR soldiers 20 December 2024 42 RUS soldiers 503 UKR soldiers 24 January 2025 49 RUS soldiers 757 UKR soldiers 14 February 2025 45 RUS soldiers 757 UKR soldiers 28 March 2025 43 RUS soldiers 909 UKR soldiers 18 April 2025 41 RUS soldiers 909 UKR soldiers 16 May 2025 34 RUS soldiers 909 UKR soldiers 10-16 June 2025 78 RUS soldiers 6,060 UKR soldiers 16 July 2025 19 RUS soldiers 1,000 UKR soldiers 19 September 2025 24 RUS soldiers 1,000 UKR soldiers 23 October 2025 31 RUS soldiers 1,000 UKR soldiers 15.367 bodies of UKR soldiers exchanged for 473 bodies of RUS soldiers over the last year at a ratio of 32,48 to 1 | ||
|
Billyboy
1613 Posts
On November 20 2025 23:37 zeo wrote: The November exchange of bodies between Kiev and Moscow took place today KYIV, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Ukraine and Russia have carried out a new exchange of bodies of dead soldiers, Ukrainian officials and Russian state media said on Thursday. Ukraine said it received 1,000 bodies and Russian state news agency TASS quoted an unidentified source as saying Moscow got back 30. 30 RUS soldiers 1000 UKR soldiers The rest of the official exchanges over the last year: 8 November 2024 37 RUS soldiers 563 UKR soldiers 20 December 2024 42 RUS soldiers 503 UKR soldiers 24 January 2025 49 RUS soldiers 757 UKR soldiers 14 February 2025 45 RUS soldiers 757 UKR soldiers 28 March 2025 43 RUS soldiers 909 UKR soldiers 18 April 2025 41 RUS soldiers 909 UKR soldiers 16 May 2025 34 RUS soldiers 909 UKR soldiers 10-16 June 2025 78 RUS soldiers 6,060 UKR soldiers 16 July 2025 19 RUS soldiers 1,000 UKR soldiers 19 September 2025 24 RUS soldiers 1,000 UKR soldiers 23 October 2025 31 RUS soldiers 1,000 UKR soldiers 15.367 bodies of UKR soldiers exchanged for 473 bodies of RUS soldiers over the last year at a ratio of 32,48 to 1 Did you get a chance to read about fascism? Are you now pro fascist? Or was there something about Putins regime that you think doesn’t fit the definition? Also, what are the advantages of joining Russias sphere of influence over the eu? Why would you rather be Belarus than Poland? | ||
KwarK
United States43817 Posts
| ||
|
Excludos
Norway8247 Posts
On Saturday, Ryazan oil refinery was hit for the 13th time (9 times this year, 4 times in 2024), confirmed by the governor of Ryazan, Pavel Malkov, as damaged "due to falling debris" from a drone. Incredible how often that happens... Anyways, add it to the tally: + Show Spoiler + Refineries hit in 2025 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count)) Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | Feb 10, Aug 7, Aug 28, Sep 26 (4) Antipinsky refinery (JSC Antipinsky Refinery) | 174,000 | 9.18 | Oct 6 (1) Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | Feb 17, Feb 28, Jul 7, Sep 7 (4) Kirishi refinery (Surgutneftegas) | 463,000 | 7.55 | Mar 8, Sep 14, Oct 4 (3) Krasnodar refinery (Krasnodarekoneft) | ? | ? | Aug 30 (1) Kuibyshev refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 7.30 | Aug 28 (1) Makhachkala refinery (Dagnotech) | 20,500 | ? | Oct 22 (1) Mari refinery | 26,600 | ? | Oct 29 (1) Moscow refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 295,000 | 7.70 | Mar 11 (1) Nizhnekamsk II refinery (TANEKO) | 340,000 | 8.99 | Jan 11 (1) Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | Feb 5 (1) Novokuibyshevsk refinery | 185,000 | 6.47 | Mar 10, Aug 2, Sep 20, Oct 19, Nov 15 (5) Novoshakhtinsk refinery | 112,000 | 1.21 | Aug 20 (1) Novospassky refinery (NS-Oil) | 12,300 | ? | Oct 29 (1) NORSI-oil (LUKOIL, Kstovo) | 405,000 | 7.30 | Jan 28, Jul 13, Sep 16, Oct 5, Oct 16, Nov 4 (6) Novo-Ufa refinery (Bashneft-Novoil) | 171,000 | 9.18 | Sep 13, Oct 11 (2) Orsk refinery (SAFMAR) | 90,000 | ? | Oct 3, Nov 11 (2) Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) | 350,000 | 5.50 | Jan 23, Jan 25, Feb 24, Mar 9, Aug 2, Sep 5, Oct 23, Nov 15, Nov 20 (9) Salavat refinery (Gazprom) | 232,000 | 7.92 | Sep 18, Sep 24 (2) Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | Feb 11, Jul 1, Aug 10, Sep 16, Sep 20, Oct 16, Nov 3, Nov 11, Nov 14 (9) Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | Sep 4 (1) Syzran refinery (Rosneft) | 170,000 | 7.30 | Feb 19, Mar 4, Aug 15, Aug 24, Aug 30 (5) Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | Feb 26, Mar 14 (2) Ufa refinery (Bashneft-UNPZ, aka Ufimsky refinery) | 153,000 | 6.12 | Mar 3, Sep 13 (2) Ufaneftekhim refinery (Bashneft) | 220,000 | 9.18 | Oct 15 (1) Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | Jan 15, Jan 31, Feb 3, Aug 14, Aug 19, Sep 18, Nov 5 (7) Yaroslavl refinery (Slavneft-YANOS) | 300,000 | 8.60 | Self-combusted Oct 1 (0) Refineries hit in 2024 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count)) Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | May 2, Jun 20 (2) Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | Feb 9, Apr 27, Jun 21 (3) Kirishi refinery (Surgutneftegas) | 463,000 | 7.55 | Mar 13 (1) Krasnodar refinery (Krasnodarekoneft) | ? | ? | Jun 21 (1) Kuibyshev refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 7.30 | Mar 16, Mar 23 (2) Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | Mar 17, Apr 27, May 18 (3) Moscow refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 295,000 | 7.70 | Sep 1 (1) Nizhnekamsk II refinery (TANEKO) | 340,000 | 8.99 | Apr 02 (1) NORSI-oil (LUKOIL, Kstovo) | 405,000 | 7.30 | Mar 12 (1) Novokuibyshevsk refinery | 185,000 | 6.47 | Mar 16, Mar 23 (2) Novoshakhtinsk refinery | 112,000 | 1.21 | Mar 13, Jun 6, Jul 5, Dec 19 (4) Pervyy Zavod, Polotnyany Zavod, Kaluga region | 24,000 | ? | Mar 15, May 10 (2) Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) | 350,000 | 5.50 | Mar 13, May 1, Jul 27, Oct 26 (4) Salavat refinery (Gazprom) | 232,000 | 7.92 | May 9 (1) Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | Nov 8 (1) Syzran refinery (Rosneft) | 170,000 | 7.30 | Mar 16 (1) Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | Jan 25, May 17, Jul 22 (3) Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | Feb 3, May 11 (2) Yaroslavl refinery (Slavneft-YANOS) | 300,000 | 8.60 | Jan 29 (1) Hits prior to 2024: Afipsky refinery | 72,000 bbl/d | 7.30 | May 31, 2023 Novoshakhtinsk refinery | 112,000 bbl/d | 1.21 | June 22, 2022 European side, not yet hit: Nizhnekamsk I refinery (TAIF) | 167,000 | 4.15 Perm refinery (LUKOIL) | 303,000 | 9.40 Ukhta refinery (LUKOIL) | 93,000 | 3.70 | Self combusted Jun 2, 2024 Asian side refineries, not yet hit: Achinsk refinery (Rosneft) | 174,000 | 3.59 Angarsk refinery (Rosneft) | 236,000 | 9.18 Khabarovsk refinery | 115,000 | 9.90 Komsomolsk refinery (Rosneft) | 185,000 | 9.18 | Self combusted Apr 10, 2025 Nizhnevartovsk refinery (Rosneft) | 27,000 | 1.00 Omsk Refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 514,000 | 8.80 | Self combusted Aug 1 and Aug 26, 2024 Yaya Refinery (NefteKhimService) | 104,000 | 1.71 One of the bigger issues currently facing Russian oil refineries is that due to being spread across the entire country it's very difficult to protect them from drone attacks. It used to be possible to focus the air defence only on the European side, but more and more refineries are now being struck deep into the Asian side, 2000km from the border, making the attacks too spread out to efficiently deal with The exact loss in refining is difficult to quantify, as not only are the refineries being repaired, but other refineries have been turned up in in attempt to mitigate the downtime. Moscow claims 3% loss of oil refining this year, other's claim 40%. As usual, the answer is likely somewhere in the middle. If we look at oil and gas revenue, it is down by 21% in October, which likely have not had time to account for the impact of India and Chinese state oil companies both halting purchase of Russian crude oil in late October (at least directly, which means Russia is forced to sell through third parties on the cheap, impacting revenue further) | ||
| ||
StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War Dota 2 League of Legends Counter-Strike Heroes of the Storm Other Games summit1g9060 Grubby3519 FrodaN2141 fl0m944 B2W.Neo791 mouzStarbuck273 ArmadaUGS117 Trikslyr47 Railgan9 |
|
Afreeca Starleague
Wardi Open
Replay Cast
Sparkling Tuna Cup
Kung Fu Cup
The PondCast
Replay Cast
Replay Cast
CranKy Ducklings
BSL
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
