NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
On January 05 2025 05:49 Yurie wrote: Something different happened again. The deal allowing Russian gas to pass through Ukraine expired and for some strange reason Ukraine didn't renew it.
Slovakia threatening to cut off power to Ukraine.
This combined with Russia wanting to use gas to put pressure on Moldavia and them not being in EU and the support that would give means we get a lot of different political drama being triggered.
Moldavia in a state of crisis for energy/heat. It is a country that Russia has been pressuring for a long time, even creating transnistria as part of it. If EU/US doesn't extend support it is likely the energy crisis ends up collapsing the government and a pro Russian one forming.
It’s not at all weird. Ukraine didn’t want to be the ones to cut off an existing supply to their allies but they didn’t want their allies funding Russia. The compromise they found was to let the agreement lapse rather than cut it off. That way it’s nobody’s fault. No one got cut off, nothing was canceled, it was just finished.
Fico is just talking trash, he can’t cut off electricity.
Transnistra is a Russian occupied province that didn’t previously have to pay their gas bill. The Russian army was deployed there and they got used to free gas. Gasprom started charging and Transnistra refused to pay so now they don’t have gas. Gas could be provided through Turkish pipes but they refuse to pay and nobody is providing it for free. Nothing will come of it but if they do decide to make a deal they have plenty of Soviet era shells that they could sell for gas money.
Russia said on Sunday that Ukraine had launched a counter-attack in the Kursk region, an area of western Russia from which Russian troops have been trying to eject Ukrainian forces for the past five months.
What initially looked like an over reaction from a bunch of Russian milbloggers has also been confirmed by Ukraine. There are reports that Russian forces have taken a pummeling in the recent days and weeks, and Ukraine is opportunistically using this. I'm not sure if Ukraine has enough reserves to do a deep strike, and the attack is mostly just re-capturing villages and areas that Russia already re-captured since the start of the Kursk offensive in August.
Ukraine also reported that in 2024, Russia suffered about 430.000 casualties, more than in 2022 and 2023 combined.
So we are getting multiple news reports now that Ukraine has two living North Korean prisoners, not observers. So if that was still a Russian discussion point it is even more hollow by now.
Ukraine says Russia is going to pretend those are not Koreans but people from Tuva Republic, which is a part of the Russian Federation.
In a statement posted on Telegram and X, Zelensky said the soldiers were "talking to SBU investigators" and he had instructed the Security Service of Ukraine to grant journalists access to them. "The world needs to know the truth about what is happening," he added.
Zelensky also posted four photographs alongside his statement. Two show wounded men. One of the photos showed a red Russian military card. The place of birth on the document is given as Turan, in the Tuva Republic, which is close to Mongolia.
The intelligence service said that when the prisoners were captured, one of the soldiers had a Russian military ID card issued in the name of another person with registration in the Tuva Republic. The other had no documents at all. The intelligence service said that during interrogation, the soldier with the ID card told security personnel that he had been issued the document in Russia during the autumn of 2024. He is alleged to have stated that at that time, some of North Korea's combat units had one-week interoperability training.
"It is noteworthy that the prisoner...emphasises that he was allegedly going for training, not to fight a war against Ukraine," the SBU statement said.
(...)
Zelensky's office said in a statement that the Russians "are trying to hide the fact that these are soldiers from North Korea by giving them documents claiming they are from Tuva or other territories under Moscow's control".
"But these people are actually Koreans, they are from North Korea," the statement from the president's office said.
Hard to believe this is a surprise to anyone, but we have some more confirmation that the US never had Ukraine's victory as one of their objectives.
When Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, President Joe Biden set three objectives for the U.S. response. Ukraine’s victory was never among them. The phrase the White House used to describe its mission at the time—supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes”—was intentionally vague. It also raised the question: As long as it takes to do what?
“We were deliberately not talking about the territorial parameters,” says Eric Green, who served on Biden’s National Security Council at the time, overseeing Russia policy. The U.S., in other words, made no promise to help Ukraine recover all of the land Russia had occupied, and certainly not the vast territories in eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula taken in its initial invasion in 2014. The reason was simple, Green says: in the White House’s view, doing so was beyond Ukraine’s ability, even with robust help from the West.
Now Trump starts to pressure for a deal that only gets worse the more public/obvious it becomes that Trump is pressuring Ukraine to take any deal they can get.
On January 21 2025 15:16 GreenHorizons wrote: Hard to believe this is a surprise to anyone, but we have some more confirmation that the US never had Ukraine's victory as one of their objectives.
When Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, President Joe Biden set three objectives for the U.S. response. Ukraine’s victory was never among them. The phrase the White House used to describe its mission at the time—supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes”—was intentionally vague. It also raised the question: As long as it takes to do what?
“We were deliberately not talking about the territorial parameters,” says Eric Green, who served on Biden’s National Security Council at the time, overseeing Russia policy. The U.S., in other words, made no promise to help Ukraine recover all of the land Russia had occupied, and certainly not the vast territories in eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula taken in its initial invasion in 2014. The reason was simple, Green says: in the White House’s view, doing so was beyond Ukraine’s ability, even with robust help from the West.
Now Trump starts to pressure for a deal that only gets worse the more public/obvious it becomes that Trump is pressuring Ukraine to take any deal they can get.
From that same article, they said that they wanted "[...] Ukraine to survive as a sovereign, democratic country free to pursue integration with the West." If you think it shocking that an administration didn't put an, in their eyes, impossible goal as their objective, I don't know what to tell you. That doesn't mean that they deliberately withheld aid because they didn't want Ukraine to achieve victory. I am not sure what your angle here is, really, as this isn't the bombshell you apparently think it is.
Trump is gunning for a Nobel price, and the way to get that is through peace in Ukraine. Expect to see increasingly wild "solutions" until he gets what he wants.
However, two things to note that are interesting. Firstly, he's been critical of Putin for the first time in his life, stating "He's not doing so well" (I know, it's not wild. But it's a first). Secondly, Ukraine support was specifically excluded from the bill he just signed into action that limits all US international support (that said, the current support is not far from running out, as I understanding, and I'm not holding my breath for the current congress to sign in a new deal).
I'm still not particularly hopeful for the future. But at the very least it didn't get massively worse on day 1 as I was expecting (and as he promised). Now we'll just have to wait and see what comes next.
On January 23 2025 00:14 Excludos wrote: Trump is gunning for a Nobel price, and the way to get that is through peace in Ukraine. Expect to see increasingly wild "solutions" until he gets what he wants.
However, two things to note that are interesting. Firstly, he's been critical of Putin for the first time in his life, stating "He's not doing so well" (I know, it's not wild. But it's a first). Secondly, Ukraine support was specifically excluded from the bill he just signed into action that limits all US international support (that said, the current support is not far from running out, as I understanding, and I'm not holding my breath for the current congress to sign in a new deal).
I'm still not particularly hopeful for the future. But at the very least it didn't get massively worse on day 1 as I was expecting (and as he promised). Now we'll just have to wait and see what comes next.
Trump also really wants to crackdown on immigration.
A Ukraine aid package that requires Democrats to sign onto his plans to put millions of immigrants into concentration camps is what I've been expecting for a while now. As far as I can tell, Democrats can't wait to support that deal.
Won't be enough to win back Ukraine, but that's never been the US's goal anyway.
Did you really think an US internal document would state something like:
"We will do everything in our power to assure Ukraines totally victory?" or "Our aid will know no limits until Russia is defeated?" Immediatly after the (imagined) second strongest military power on earth all out attacks his (imagined) militarily vastly inferiour neighbour it allready had drawn into some kind of forever war on it's eastern front?
What would you expect such documents to state above "[...] Ukraine to survive as a sovereign, democratic country free to pursue integration with the West."?
Whats the Russian-Simp/Tanky/Putins-cum-gaggler memo to this question? I'm too lazy to google it myself and you surely know it by heart anyway.
On January 23 2025 00:14 Excludos wrote: Trump is gunning for a Nobel price, and the way to get that is through peace in Ukraine. Expect to see increasingly wild "solutions" until he gets what he wants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio halted spending Friday on most existing foreign aid grants for 90 days. The order, which shocked State Department officials, appears to apply to funding for military assistance to Ukraine.
Rubio’s guidance, issued to all diplomatic and consular posts, requires department staffers to issue “stop-work orders” on nearly all “existing foreign assistance awards,” according to the document, which was obtained by POLITICO. It is effective immediately.
It appears to go further than President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which instructed the department to pause foreign aid grants for 90 days pending review by the secretary. It had not been clear from the president’s order if it would affect already appropriated funds or Ukraine aid.
The new guidance means no further actions will be taken to disperse aid funding to programs already approved by the U.S. government, according to three current and two former officials familiar with the new guidance.
The order shocked some department officials for its sweeping mandate. “State just totally went nuclear on foreign assistance,” said another State Department official.
On January 23 2025 00:14 Excludos wrote: Trump is gunning for a Nobel price, and the way to get that is through peace in Ukraine. Expect to see increasingly wild "solutions" until he gets what he wants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio halted spending Friday on most existing foreign aid grants for 90 days. The order, which shocked State Department officials, appears to apply to funding for military assistance to Ukraine.
Rubio’s guidance, issued to all diplomatic and consular posts, requires department staffers to issue “stop-work orders” on nearly all “existing foreign assistance awards,” according to the document, which was obtained by POLITICO. It is effective immediately.
It appears to go further than President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which instructed the department to pause foreign aid grants for 90 days pending review by the secretary. It had not been clear from the president’s order if it would affect already appropriated funds or Ukraine aid.
The new guidance means no further actions will be taken to disperse aid funding to programs already approved by the U.S. government, according to three current and two former officials familiar with the new guidance.
The order shocked some department officials for its sweeping mandate. “State just totally went nuclear on foreign assistance,” said another State Department official.
Will the EU pick up the tab?
think im going to throw up. at least neville* chamberlain actually thought he was doing the right thing, and eventually came around to the correct position. trump just nuked american foreign policy for 20 years
On January 23 2025 00:14 Excludos wrote: Trump is gunning for a Nobel price, and the way to get that is through peace in Ukraine. Expect to see increasingly wild "solutions" until he gets what he wants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio halted spending Friday on most existing foreign aid grants for 90 days. The order, which shocked State Department officials, appears to apply to funding for military assistance to Ukraine.
Rubio’s guidance, issued to all diplomatic and consular posts, requires department staffers to issue “stop-work orders” on nearly all “existing foreign assistance awards,” according to the document, which was obtained by POLITICO. It is effective immediately.
It appears to go further than President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which instructed the department to pause foreign aid grants for 90 days pending review by the secretary. It had not been clear from the president’s order if it would affect already appropriated funds or Ukraine aid.
The new guidance means no further actions will be taken to disperse aid funding to programs already approved by the U.S. government, according to three current and two former officials familiar with the new guidance.
The order shocked some department officials for its sweeping mandate. “State just totally went nuclear on foreign assistance,” said another State Department official.
Will the EU pick up the tab?
think im going to throw up. at least neville* chamberlain actually thought he was doing the right thing, and eventually came around to the correct position. trump just nuked american foreign policy for 20 years
A few hours before that Putin said there wouldn't have been a war if the 2020 US election hadn't been stolen from Trump. It's that easy with him.
On January 23 2025 00:14 Excludos wrote: Trump is gunning for a Nobel price, and the way to get that is through peace in Ukraine. Expect to see increasingly wild "solutions" until he gets what he wants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio halted spending Friday on most existing foreign aid grants for 90 days. The order, which shocked State Department officials, appears to apply to funding for military assistance to Ukraine.
Rubio’s guidance, issued to all diplomatic and consular posts, requires department staffers to issue “stop-work orders” on nearly all “existing foreign assistance awards,” according to the document, which was obtained by POLITICO. It is effective immediately.
It appears to go further than President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which instructed the department to pause foreign aid grants for 90 days pending review by the secretary. It had not been clear from the president’s order if it would affect already appropriated funds or Ukraine aid.
The new guidance means no further actions will be taken to disperse aid funding to programs already approved by the U.S. government, according to three current and two former officials familiar with the new guidance.
The order shocked some department officials for its sweeping mandate. “State just totally went nuclear on foreign assistance,” said another State Department official.
Will the EU pick up the tab?
think im going to throw up. at least neville* chamberlain actually thought he was doing the right thing, and eventually came around to the correct position. trump just nuked american foreign policy for 20 years
My understanding is that this doesn't apply to the main mechanisms for arming Ukraine. The state department doesn't administer much military aid, and Biden shipped everything he could before leaving office anyway.
It's obviously a stupid plan that will do a ton of damage, but the war is one thing that's not greatly affected. There's very little for Ukraine that was left to be grounded.
However, Trump did just get congress to approve his clownlord SecDef, who does control the military aid, so watch this space.
On January 23 2025 00:14 Excludos wrote: Trump is gunning for a Nobel price, and the way to get that is through peace in Ukraine. Expect to see increasingly wild "solutions" until he gets what he wants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio halted spending Friday on most existing foreign aid grants for 90 days. The order, which shocked State Department officials, appears to apply to funding for military assistance to Ukraine.
Rubio’s guidance, issued to all diplomatic and consular posts, requires department staffers to issue “stop-work orders” on nearly all “existing foreign assistance awards,” according to the document, which was obtained by POLITICO. It is effective immediately.
It appears to go further than President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which instructed the department to pause foreign aid grants for 90 days pending review by the secretary. It had not been clear from the president’s order if it would affect already appropriated funds or Ukraine aid.
The new guidance means no further actions will be taken to disperse aid funding to programs already approved by the U.S. government, according to three current and two former officials familiar with the new guidance.
The order shocked some department officials for its sweeping mandate. “State just totally went nuclear on foreign assistance,” said another State Department official.
Will the EU pick up the tab?
This is just a bad headline and fake, aid has not been cut, Zelensky has clarified it has not been cut.
Also I saw a interview with defence guy for ukraine said they have enough weapons to last a year if us cut all aid. (Which didn't happen) So even if us doesn't send aid, ukraine has more than enough weapons to fight for a long time anyway.
On January 23 2025 00:14 Excludos wrote: Trump is gunning for a Nobel price, and the way to get that is through peace in Ukraine. Expect to see increasingly wild "solutions" until he gets what he wants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio halted spending Friday on most existing foreign aid grants for 90 days. The order, which shocked State Department officials, appears to apply to funding for military assistance to Ukraine.
Rubio’s guidance, issued to all diplomatic and consular posts, requires department staffers to issue “stop-work orders” on nearly all “existing foreign assistance awards,” according to the document, which was obtained by POLITICO. It is effective immediately.
It appears to go further than President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which instructed the department to pause foreign aid grants for 90 days pending review by the secretary. It had not been clear from the president’s order if it would affect already appropriated funds or Ukraine aid.
The new guidance means no further actions will be taken to disperse aid funding to programs already approved by the U.S. government, according to three current and two former officials familiar with the new guidance.
The order shocked some department officials for its sweeping mandate. “State just totally went nuclear on foreign assistance,” said another State Department official.
On January 23 2025 00:14 Excludos wrote: Trump is gunning for a Nobel price, and the way to get that is through peace in Ukraine. Expect to see increasingly wild "solutions" until he gets what he wants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio halted spending Friday on most existing foreign aid grants for 90 days. The order, which shocked State Department officials, appears to apply to funding for military assistance to Ukraine.
Rubio’s guidance, issued to all diplomatic and consular posts, requires department staffers to issue “stop-work orders” on nearly all “existing foreign assistance awards,” according to the document, which was obtained by POLITICO. It is effective immediately.
It appears to go further than President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which instructed the department to pause foreign aid grants for 90 days pending review by the secretary. It had not been clear from the president’s order if it would affect already appropriated funds or Ukraine aid.
The new guidance means no further actions will be taken to disperse aid funding to programs already approved by the U.S. government, according to three current and two former officials familiar with the new guidance.
The order shocked some department officials for its sweeping mandate. “State just totally went nuclear on foreign assistance,” said another State Department official.
Will the EU pick up the tab?
Also I saw a interview with defence guy for ukraine said they have enough weapons to last a year if us cut all aid. (Which didn't happen) So even if us doesn't send aid, ukraine has more than enough weapons to fight for a long time anyway.
This one I'm not so sure about. Ukraine has been pretty consistent about their lack of equipment. I'm sure they have small arms enough for a while, but the lack of men requires them to keep holding a technological and hardware advantage over Russia, which just doesn't happen without constant trickling of foreign aid.
Once Ukraine runs out of artillery, missiles, fixed wings, armor and drones, they'll have nothing left to keep those casualty rates down, and then they'll be in real trouble.
Please watch it basically states that Ukraine will have enough major equipment to last until end of 2026 with current burn rate and currently committed support.
The thing they are most likely to run out of is actually ammunition, especially for artillery, long range missiles and anti air. The problem isn't really the platforms, it is what they would be shooting.
As for why they want more equipment. They are basically using Humvees when they should be using a CV-90. T64 instead of Leopard 2. At the same time the military is larger while the amount of equipment is just slightly more than at the start of the war. So amount of brigades needing equipment has increased while the equipment remains mostly static in quantity. Excluding light vehicles such as Humvees.
Perun’s content is always excellent, well sourced, and informative. If you go back 3 years it’s remarkable how many of his assessments were correct. One unfortunate observation of his is that while the Ukrainian army has grown the pool of tanks and aircraft have not. Ukraine could conscript more men and put them in uniform but it can’t furnish them with the tools they’d need for combined arms assaults. The reluctance to do that has a lot to do with the failures of the west to send the stockpiles of abrams etc.
EPT
