EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 768
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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9336 Posts
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KwarK
United States44450 Posts
On December 08 2024 04:28 Sent. wrote: Do you have any source of Russia selling missile tech to NK? It's the worst possible outcome and I would not put Russians past that but they're also not dumb and I suspect they should be able to buy whatever they need from NK cheaper. No specific source but what else is there. It's the one thing NK leadership wants but can't get. It's the thing they've shown themselves more than willing to starve the population to get. It's the one thing the Soviet Union inheritance still has left to sell. If you're NK and you're burning through your economy and population to make a credible nuclear deterrent but you've only gotten as far as a controlled test explosion, you don't have working rocketry or submarines or miniaturization of the weapons and Russia comes begging what are you asking for? Food wouldn't make sense, you've chosen between food and nuclear tech many times before and food hasn't ever won. Dollars/gold? To buy what? You're sanctioned to shit and you've got your own sources of those anyway for the shit you need smuggled in. What you want is something money can't buy and China won't give you. | ||
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Simberto
Germany12086 Posts
On December 08 2024 07:23 KwarK wrote: No specific source but what else is there. It's the one thing NK leadership wants but can't get. It's the thing they've shown themselves more than willing to starve the population to get. It's the one thing the Soviet Union inheritance still has left to sell. If you're NK and you're burning through your economy and population to make a credible nuclear deterrent but you've only gotten as far as a controlled test explosion, you don't have working rocketry or submarines or miniaturization of the weapons and Russia comes begging what are you asking for? Food wouldn't make sense, you've chosen between food and nuclear tech many times before and food hasn't ever won. Dollars/gold? To buy what? You're sanctioned to shit and you've got your own sources of those anyway for the shit you need smuggled in. What you want is something money can't buy and China won't give you. Exactly. NK was in a very, very good negotiating position with Russia, and they have given them a lot of stuff. Whatever they got in return must have been quite valuable, and it was almost certainly some kind of weapons related thing, because that is the only thing the NK leadership really wants. Kim doesn't hand over millions of artillery shells for nothing. Doesn't 100% have to be missiles, but that is a very likely thing. | ||
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Salazarz
Korea (South)2591 Posts
On December 08 2024 04:28 Sent. wrote: Do you have any source of Russia selling missile tech to NK? It's the worst possible outcome and I would not put Russians past that but they're also not dumb and I suspect they should be able to buy whatever they need from NK cheaper. It's just KwarK being KwarK. Contrary to his insistence about Pyongyang not caring about feeding people, Russia has supplied a lot of foodstuffs and oil to NK, as well as some heavy machinery (farm and mining equipment, mostly). On the military side of things, they're selling some AA stuff, nothing sophisticated like S300/S400, though. SK intelligence also alleges Russians may have helped with NKs satellite launch program, but that's neither here nor there. | ||
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KwarK
United States44450 Posts
On December 08 2024 09:24 Salazarz wrote: It's just KwarK being KwarK. Contrary to his insistence about Pyongyang not caring about feeding people, Russia has supplied a lot of foodstuffs and oil to NK, as well as some heavy machinery (farm and mining equipment, mostly). On the military side of things, they're selling some AA stuff, nothing sophisticated like S300/S400, though. SK intelligence also alleges Russians may have helped with NKs satellite launch program, but that's neither here nor there. Are you from the timeline where NK picked food over nuclear ambitions? I’m from the one where they didn’t and had a series of huge famines. | ||
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Salazarz
Korea (South)2591 Posts
On December 08 2024 09:27 KwarK wrote: Are you from the timeline where NK picked food over nuclear ambitions? I’m from the one where they didn’t and had a series of huge famines. I'm from the timeline where large deliveries of foodstuffs from Russia into North Korea have been observed in the last few months. You know, the one that we all live in. Has the Ruble and subsequently the Russian economy collapsed in yours yet, btw? | ||
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KwarK
United States44450 Posts
On December 08 2024 10:44 Salazarz wrote: I'm from the timeline where large deliveries of foodstuffs from Russia into North Korea have been observed in the last few months. You know, the one that we all live in. Has the Ruble and subsequently the Russian economy collapsed in yours yet, btw? Yes, it's a slow motion collapse. You probably wouldn't understand it. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5914 Posts
On December 08 2024 10:44 Salazarz wrote: I'm from the timeline where large deliveries of foodstuffs from Russia into North Korea have been observed in the last few months. You know, the one that we all live in. Has the Ruble and subsequently the Russian economy collapsed in yours yet, btw? This is Russian economy right now. ![[image loading]](https://preview.redd.it/s209vv9oajo61.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=9ac88081a02e53090746835ae8cc5ef15caa3dee) | ||
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0x64
Finland4659 Posts
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KT_Elwood
Germany1202 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On December 08 2024 04:28 Sent. wrote: Do you have any source of Russia selling missile tech to NK? It's the worst possible outcome and I would not put Russians past that but they're also not dumb and I suspect they should be able to buy whatever they need from NK cheaper. And also to all "nukes vs food" previous debate. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/n-korea-sent-russia-millions-of-munitions-in-exchange-for-food-says-seoul "In return for the munitions, Russia provided North Korea with food, raw materials and parts used in weapons manufacturing, he said." “It seems that food accounts for the largest proportion [of shipments from Russia], which is believed to have stabilised food prices in North Korea, with other necessities also included,” Shin said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/satellite-imagery-indicates-north-korea-oil-imports-russia-top-un-limits-report-2024-11-22/ "North Korea has likely received more than 1 million barrels of oil from Russia over an eight-month period this year in breach of U.N. sanctions, according to an analysis, opens new tab of satellite imagery published on Friday by the British-based Open Source Centre and the BBC." https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-russia-troops/ "North Korea is believed to receive cash, food, and space technology from Russia as compensation for entering the war on its side, The Korea Herald newspaper reported on Nov. 3, citing a lawmaker familiar with the matter." https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/15/asia/north-korea-self-detonating-drones-intl-hnk/index.html Obvious Shahed and Lancet drones on photos. So in terms of volume it seems mainly oil and food, plus some raw materials, tech and possibly cash in USD for DPRK to use in their own trade. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18494 Posts
On December 09 2024 04:23 Ardias wrote: And also to all "nukes vs food" previous debate. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/n-korea-sent-russia-millions-of-munitions-in-exchange-for-food-says-seoul "In return for the munitions, Russia provided North Korea with food, raw materials and parts used in weapons manufacturing, he said." “It seems that food accounts for the largest proportion [of shipments from Russia], which is believed to have stabilised food prices in North Korea, with other necessities also included,” Shin said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/satellite-imagery-indicates-north-korea-oil-imports-russia-top-un-limits-report-2024-11-22/ "North Korea has likely received more than 1 million barrels of oil from Russia over an eight-month period this year in breach of U.N. sanctions, according to an analysis, opens new tab of satellite imagery published on Friday by the British-based Open Source Centre and the BBC." https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-russia-troops/ "North Korea is believed to receive cash, food, and space technology from Russia as compensation for entering the war on its side, The Korea Herald newspaper reported on Nov. 3, citing a lawmaker familiar with the matter." https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/15/asia/north-korea-self-detonating-drones-intl-hnk/index.html Obvious Shahed and Lancet drones on photos. So in terms of volume it seems mainly oil and food, plus some raw materials, tech and possibly cash in USD for DPRK to use in their own trade. That's because in terms of volume, a pendrive with all of Russia's top secret weapons technology is negligible... | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28929 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On December 09 2024 04:53 Acrofales wrote: That's because in terms of volume, a pendrive with all of Russia's top secret weapons technology is negligible... I believe some arguments in the discussion above was that NK leadership would care only about missiles, and not food, but they clearly do. Also I didn't find any claims about ICBM technology transfers aside aforementioned "space technology", though I think that this will be more likely about satellites. Also main thing DPRK is lacking is modern electronics, not ICBMs, which they already possess. And news about UAV tests kinda support that sentiment. | ||
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KT_Elwood
Germany1202 Posts
On December 09 2024 07:31 Ardias wrote: I believe some arguments in the discussion above was that NK leadership would care only about missiles, and not food, but they clearly do. Also I didn't find any claims about ICBM technology transfers aside aforementioned "space technology", though I think that this will be more likely about satellites. Also main thing DPRK is lacking is modern electronics, not ICBMs, which they already possess. And news about UAV tests kinda support that sentiment. Adding some Source: https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-north-koreas-nuclear-inventory/ North Korea has the ability to truck-launch ICBMs and Sub-Launch Ballistic nukes, but it's nukes are more a deterant to conventional invasion, than nuclear retaliation. North Korea is also to believed to be testing a MIRV.. but not deployed it successfully. | ||
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Billyboy
2706 Posts
At best (for Russia) it is business as usual but way more expenses. At worst it is the first domino as rebels in Africa see new hope in over throwing regimes propped up by Russia in exchange for blood diamonds and gold. Edit: Assad and Yanukovych sharing a drink in Moscow is both funny and depressing. Good they are out, bad they are still living the good life. | ||
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Yurie
12186 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5914 Posts
On December 10 2024 05:57 Yurie wrote: I think it likely any new government in Syria will lease the bases to Russia. Easy rent and you don't make an enemy you don't have to. A few other countries already rent out land for military bases. I'd imagine they already consider Russia an enemy, considering that it's been bombing their hospitals, schools and residential areas for ten years... | ||
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Sent.
Poland9336 Posts
- Russia will try to negotiate keeping fully independent control of its Syrian bases. No further intervention will be considered. - The rebels will agree to the above unless the other global or regional players can convince them not to. I don't believe the other players should be able to convince them without some major shifts in their general policy, but I do think it's possible to trick the rebels into getting rid of Russians bases in exchange of intangible and likely insignificant benefits from Turkey and the Western world. - Russia is fully aware Syria as a whole is lost and it will try to accelerate the development of its bases in Africa since that's the only area where they can remain being a significant player. I think they will fuck this up in the short term but they should be able to return to being a nuisance in less than a decade. - Iran can't change anything of the above. - This will have zero influence on the Russian-Ukrainian war. The fall of Asad is an indirect result of Russian failures and not something Ukraine can use to help itself in a meaningful way. | ||
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Falling
Canada11607 Posts
On December 10 2024 07:56 maybenexttime wrote: I'd imagine they already consider Russia an enemy, considering that it's been bombing their hospitals, schools and residential areas for ten years... I suspect if they at all think that Russia was extending Assad's lease on life on his brutal regime, they'd want to kick the Russians the curb. And given that once both Russia and Hezbollah were fully occupied the rebels could rapidly kick the teeth in on Assad's forces, it looks rather suspiciously like the regime was only propped up by outside help. Given that... no amount of cash moneys would convince me to rent out bases back to such an organization. But I'm not Syrian, so who knows. | ||
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