EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 741
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Yurie
12186 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On October 29 2024 07:56 Yurie wrote: The sad part is the nuclear non-proliferation strategy is looking dead unless something changes. Ukraine got stomped by it here and nobody is really stepping in with guarantees for after the current war. Forcing them to go for nukes if the war stalemates. This will break the taboo and perhaps spark South Korea/Japan to follow, especially if Trump wins the US election. My 2 cents is Ukraine is already pursuing nukes or at least dirty bombs already. Unless this whole thing is a massive charade intended to land a killing blow on the entire Russian sphere of influence, NATO/EU shitting their pants here means they have a choice of protecting themselves or rolling over. At the end of the day, I understand the information required for this to be a fruitful thought or discussion simply doesn't exist for us. We don't know what Lloyd Austin is thinking. We don't know the deepest of secrets of NATO. So its all kinda pointless to try to guess. That's part of why I am saying "if we assume...", because trying to determine absolute fact here simply isn't possible. | ||
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Nezgar
Germany535 Posts
The core problem is that the western alliances are tip-toeing around the problem that the invader has nukes. If Russia didn't have those, the war would either have never happened in the first place, or been over within weeks. Russia is also not a rational actor, trying to deter someone like that with a small nuclear arsenal is not going to work. I don't quite understand the doom and gloom position, to be honest. The war has also shown that invading a neutral country is ruinous both in the short and long term. The amount of man and material that Russia had to blow up to get as far as they have so far, which is still far away from actually achieving their goal, cannot be sustained by most nations on earth. Neither would it have been possible if Russia hadn't been sitting on a vast stockpile of Soviet heritage, something that other nations don't have. This is a fairly unique situation, one in which neither NATO nor the EU had any obligation to assist at all. Spinning that as NATO/EU shitting their pants when the sovereignty of no nation of either has even been at risk is very weird. If the lessons of this war had been "NATO is useless and toothless, and invading neutral countries is a great idea", China would have already had their go at Taiwan. But they haven't. All sides of this conflict, including Russia, are worried about escalation and what it could mean. North Korea could have provided more help and earlier than it has. Iran could have provided more help and earlier than it has. BRICS could have come out in support of Russia, but they haven't. The lessons and impression that you are taking away from this are clearly not the same as those of the people in power. Of course it has also shown a lot of weaknesses and deficiencies in the alliances. It has shaken up everyone and shown what a modern war could look like, and how unprepared almost everyone is. Ukraine pursuing nukes or building dirty bombs is, quite frankly, inane. They cost an eye-watering amount of money and are basically useless. Ukraine cannot drop nuclear weapons on their own territory. They cannot nuke Russia either. That is a bluff that is going to get called immediately and I think everyone in charge knows that. | ||
zatic
Zurich15366 Posts
Once this war is over one way or another they, and many other countries, will likely look at nukes for deterrence though. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22705 Posts
On October 29 2024 08:47 zatic wrote: I think it was addressed in or around their 'plan for victory'. Either Ukraine gets accepted into NATO or they will develop a nuke. Because having a nuke or being under the umbrella of someone with them is the only option for lasting peace.Ukraine isn't persuing nukes, neither fission not dirty bombs. That would be completely pointless since deterrence has already failed. Once this war is over one way or another they, and many other countries, will likely look at nukes for deterrence though. | ||
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Gahlo
United States35174 Posts
On October 29 2024 08:46 Nezgar wrote: The war is a statement against neutrality, not for nuclear weapons. If Ukraine had been a part of NATO, none of this would have happened. Conversely, Ukraine used to have nukes. They got rid of them for a promise from Russia that they wouldn't be invaded You don't take a 3 day road trip to Kyiv if you run the risk of getting a nuke chucked at you. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On October 29 2024 08:46 Nezgar wrote: I don't quite understand the doom and gloom position, to be honest. North Korea is deployed defensively and participating in offensive training. We are continuing to sit on our hands. There is a point when accommodation becomes harmful passivity. I think the sad reality is that most nations don't view direct participation as feasible. Europe as a whole has lost touch with military realities of the world. I think there is a hypnosis that will only be broken when Russia succeeds in absorbing significant amounts of neighboring land. | ||
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hitthat
Poland2350 Posts
The only lasting peace idea would be nuclear rearmament of Ukraine, and responding "GO ON, THAN YOU DIE TOO!" to every nuclear threat from the russians. Disarmament treaties are in poractice null from the moment when russian officials threatened non-nuclear countries with nukes. That's comes for you, Medvedev. Noone will stop Iran from arming if they wish, so it is time at last to put this non-proliferation farse to rest. "Oh, but what what about threat of human extinction?" Well, maybe do not use it in first place if you are so much concerned for humanity's fate. | ||
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Nezgar
Germany535 Posts
On October 29 2024 10:24 Gahlo wrote: Conversely, Ukraine used to have nukes. They got rid of them for a promise from Russia that they wouldn't be invaded You don't take a 3 day road trip to Kyiv if you run the risk of getting a nuke chucked at you. Having a competent nuclear arsenal would have probably deterred Russia, though even that is not guaranteed. While I have no doubt that Ukraine could have started their nuclear program to maintain their stockpile of nuclear weapons, I am not sure whether their economy could have sustained an arsenal large enough for MAD on their own. The point was that the while nukes might have worked, being a member of a powerful defensive alliance would have been a guarantee. And for most nations, having the right kind of friends is much more affordable than pumping vast amounts of resources into trying to gain a civilization-ending weapon. On October 29 2024 13:55 Mohdoo wrote: North Korea is deployed defensively and participating in offensive training. We are continuing to sit on our hands. There is a point when accommodation becomes harmful passivity. I think the sad reality is that most nations don't view direct participation as feasible. Europe as a whole has lost touch with military realities of the world. I think there is a hypnosis that will only be broken when Russia succeeds in absorbing significant amounts of neighboring land. That's one of the differences between being a nation with democratic institutions, and being ruled by an authoritarian regime. In NATO and the EU, public perception matters. Politics, especially domestic ones, matter. Escalating towards a war with a nuclear nation is generally not very popular at home and tends to hinder the amount of support you can muster for a nation that you are not allied with in the first place. And even if you settle on a strategy, you still have to clear all the bureaucratic hurdles along the way. Things take time in democracies. Leadership changes along with their plans. That is unfortunately even more true when hostile nations wage a successful information warfare campaign like Russia has. We could and should have done more and sooner, I think we can all agree on that. And I do think that the pacifism movements are living in a fantasy world. But ultimately the western nations have to walk this tightrope and figure out what is possible as they go. It hurts to see the pain and suffering in Ukraine, and the feeling of not being able to do enough to end it. But this isn't the end, neither for Ukraine nor for the idea of global trade and mutual prosperity. I don't think that writing eulogies the moment those face difficulties is the way to go. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9336 Posts
Surely at least some Russians will ask themselves the "are we the baddies?" question after seeing their guys fight side by side with Kim Jong Un's soldiers. | ||
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Yurie
12186 Posts
On October 29 2024 09:01 Gorsameth wrote: I think it was addressed in or around their 'plan for victory'. Either Ukraine gets accepted into NATO or they will develop a nuke. Because having a nuke or being under the umbrella of someone with them is the only option for lasting peace. Exactly. It is one of Ukraine's negotiation points. Either Nato accepts them or they go for nukes. It is a clear negotiation point. They want allies more than they want nukes. But if their potential allies aren't reciprocating the sentiment then you go for the more expensive option. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8281 Posts
For context that's many, many times more than exists on earth. I don't get how they can keep a straight face whilst performing these clown courts. | ||
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Yurie
12186 Posts
On October 30 2024 14:57 Excludos wrote: https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/29/russian_court_fines_google/ For context that's many, many times more than exists on earth. I don't get how they can keep a straight face whilst performing these clown courts. It had its intended effect. Sum was set high enough it hit western news. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
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Yurie
12186 Posts
On October 31 2024 04:27 Silvanel wrote: Hit western news and make everyone laugh? That was the intended effect? I wish it was that easy for me to laugh. :/ It is an insane sum but I just read it as Russia forbidding google from any income from the country. Basically a soft ban. Countries banning companies run from other countries is very common on the internet. India banning Chinese companies, China banning US ones and so on. If read this way it is a successful news campaign, a normal ban I would never have heard about. | ||
KwarK
United States44449 Posts
On October 31 2024 04:53 Yurie wrote: I wish it was that easy for me to laugh. :/ It is an insane sum but I just read it as Russia forbidding google from any income from the country. Basically a soft ban. Countries banning companies run from other countries is very common on the internet. India banning Chinese companies, China banning US ones and so on. If read this way it is a successful news campaign, a normal ban I would never have heard about. Google left Russia in 2022. It’s not a ban because they already voluntarily left. | ||
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Yurie
12186 Posts
On October 31 2024 05:22 KwarK wrote: Google left Russia in 2022. It’s not a ban because they already voluntarily left. So they got a "big" news story out of banning a company that already left? I personally see that as highly successful from whoever ran that media campaign. | ||
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KwarK
United States44449 Posts
On October 31 2024 05:51 Yurie wrote: So they got a "big" news story out of banning a company that already left? I personally see that as highly successful from whoever ran that media campaign. It’s not even news. The fine was ages ago and the court set it such that it would double each week it went unpaid. It’s been doubling for years, hence the silly number. Literally nothing happened to make this story. Next week it’ll be doubled again. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany7459 Posts
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0x64
Finland4659 Posts
So yeah, posting here. While it's cool that the trolls got banned, they let you know the news by knowing the exact opposite they are claiming is happening. | ||
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