EPTOn September 26 2024 20:28 zboh wrote:
As far as I can remember, in the end, the wolf came.
Are you hoping for the wolf to come?
As far as I can remember, in the end, the wolf came.
Are you hoping for the wolf to come?
Maybe. Are you?
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 732
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sertas
Sweden878 Posts
Maybe. Are you? | ||
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ZeroByte13
744 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11338 Posts
On September 26 2024 19:18 Excludos wrote: Isn't there a bunch of natural gas in the eastern Ukraine? I believed that to be one of the main reasons for going into the area in the first place. They won't be able to make use of it in wartime, but during an extended ceasefire ala Korea, or even just their own pre 2020, they could start making use of it to regain some of their economy But doesn't Russia currently have more natural gas than they can sell anyways due to sanctions and a lack of infrastructure to bring that gas anywhere but to the EU? | ||
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Excludos
Norway7954 Posts
On September 26 2024 20:44 Simberto wrote: But doesn't Russia currently have more natural gas than they can sell anyways due to sanctions and a lack of infrastructure to bring that gas anywhere but to the EU? Correct, that would have to change too | ||
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zboh
42 Posts
https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/605 It gives a 1 to 8 KIA/WIA and 300 Russian POW; last thing I read was that Russia got 6.000 Ukrainian POW since he beginning of the war. I haven't been able to see the muster roll of any unit, before and after any action, in that front nor in any other one. | ||
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zboh
42 Posts
Obviously expenses would go down for Russia if they settle, but they would still be sanctioned by the west. And what would they even do with the grabbed land? Rebuild? They can't afford it and nobody wants to live there anyway. You ask a lot of (good) questions and are decently informed, so what is your opinion how the situation will likely continue?[/QUOTE] Just Peace is the total victory Zelensky promised his people? I have nothing to provide and informed opinion, I only have a few points. The situation of Ukraine is a lot worse than that of Russia, that is not winning. I haven't been able read anything providing a certainty or probability of Russia collapsing in 2 years time or in the future. Russia is suffering from this war, as Ukraine is, as we are. (Any £1bn spent in weapons for Ukraine is not spent on the NHS. Every £10bn spent in the Ukrainian debt or to pay the interest of that debt to us, -part of that debt will be condoned; it has happened before- is not spent on housing or green energy.) Ukraine has a lot of western promises. No matter how high the probability is, that is not a "yes" in 2 years time nor in the future. Russia has natural resources and an industry to use them. Russia actually declaring war (and doing nothing about it) to keep Ukraine out of NATO? So no NATO nukes at the gates? International guarantees for Ukraine (and the Kerch bridge)? As Russia is in that terrible situation, how/when is going to be able to start again? Let's not forget all the support Ukraine is going to get. Crimea recognized as part of Russia? Khrushchev could, just as well, have made Crimea an independent SSR. An "independent" Donbas? Giving back the "land bridge"? A sweet economic deal to achieve that? (From the West towards Russia.) Russia freezing the conflict unilaterally. Ukraine incapable of launching 3 or 4 Robotine offensives. I think this would be even worse. I see Russia with a better hand, I cannot see why is going to pay more than Ukraine. I see China and that MIC (both sides), mentioned by Ike, winning in this war. What I cannot see is why, in Turkey, Boris (Johnson) told Zelensky to keep fighting. (A proxy war against Russia?) | ||
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Simberto
Germany11338 Posts
Would you mind actually composing a paragraph, with connecting sentences and so forth, which makes a more clear argument? | ||
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zboh
42 Posts
On September 26 2024 23:46 Simberto wrote: I have a very hard time telling what you actually want to say with that post. You seem make a lot of unconnected statements that give off some vague "Ukraine has lost the war" vibe, but which i cannot really link to a coherent whole in that form. Would you mind actually composing a paragraph, with connecting sentences and so forth, which makes a more clear argument? "I have nothing to provide and informed opinion, I only have a few points." No. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11338 Posts
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sertas
Sweden878 Posts
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KwarK
United States41991 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22722 Posts
On September 27 2024 01:02 KwarK wrote: Without US weapons Ukraine will still fight on. They know what Russian rule is like. I'm sure some will, but Ukraine is already on pace for the majority to support negotiations. Tellingly, recent surveys—including a new poll from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace— suggest that the share of Ukrainians open to a negotiated settlement has dramatically risen over the past year and, if present trends hold, is well on the way to becoming a majority-held view. www.thenation.com I suspect that would jump significantly with the US bailing. Not to mention the US is what holds both the aid and sanctions together. Also Ukraine's economy is entirely dependent on US aid. | ||
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sertas
Sweden878 Posts
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KwarK
United States41991 Posts
It's an opinion that resides only in the mouths of tankie scum and they should be forced to live under the regimes they spend their time apologizing for. | ||
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Billyboy
472 Posts
What I cannot see is why, in Turkey, Boris (Johnson) told Zelensky to keep fighting. (A proxy war against Russia?) [/QUOTE] I have trouble reading your posts with the way you format them so apologize for skipping some parts or miss understanding others. But for the bolded part the reason that countries other than Ukraine are supporting Ukraine is hopefully because of some morality of protecting the democracy that was invaded by the much bigger dictatorship looking to rule them. But for sure is about self interest. You just mentioned that crying wolf and with invading and attacking the wolf showed up. So when they say they will turn London to dust, or speak about destroying Finland, or talk of their control of the artic threatening all the other Northern nations (Canada, Norway, Sweden, so on), or speak of destroying Poland and the rest of the baltics and so on. Countries realize that having a Russia with a powerful army is a bad thing for them. It makes sense to send them aid. And lots of it is old stock that they are paying to store. The amount the west is giving is so little it does not impact our lives in the slightest. Like how would the US be better off if it stopped sending the Ukraine their old stock? They still need to increase military spending because they need to prepare for a plausible Russian attack. It is far better, and likely cheaper, to support Ukraine. As mentioned if Trump wins who knows what he will do, he makes decisions on a whim. But he also pretty famous for saying all sorts of stuff he never does or even cares about. His supporters even know this, they just pick the things he likes to believe. He could just as easily have some war hawks rent out all his hotels or strike a deal to get paid to have their weapons branded Trump* and give 5x the support. But if he does not at cuts off aid, it doesn't mean that there not other countries that could step up. The closer to Russia you are the more incentive it is to help Ukraine because Russia coming to you next is very likely and it is obviously better for them to be stopped before your borders rather than after. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States22722 Posts
On September 27 2024 01:32 sertas wrote: US isn't giving any economical aid to ukraine, I don't know where you got that from? It used to do that in 2022 and 2023 but not anymore, EU is the only contributor to the ukraine economy this year and is also the bigger contributor in total weapons and money sent You're correct that the EU has stepped up to provide some of the aid that the US already delayed, but Ukraine's definitely still dependent on USAID. USAID said that the U.S. Government continues to press bilateral donors on the need for fair burden sharing in meeting Ukraine’s economic assistance needs and that approximately 75% of Ukraine’s external financing needs in 2024 will come from sources other than the United States. USAID expects that U.S. assistance will not exceed 50% of the total amount provided by all donors. It makes sense that doing it through the World Bank would obfuscate it though. USAID has provided $23 billion in direct budget support to the Ukrainian government through three World Bank-managed trust funds, the Ukraine Second Economic Recovery Multi-donor Trust Fund, the Special Transfer to Ukraine Single Donor Trust Fund, and the Public Expenditures for Administrative Capacity Endurance (PEACE) multi-donor trust fund. According to USAID, the purpose of direct budget support is to provide the Ukrainian government with the financial stability necessary to maintain general government operations, not necessarily to support any specific program or expenditure. There's also this from the white house yesterday: ...we commit to use our economic assistance to ensure Ukraine maintains macro-financial stability... www.whitehouse.gov | ||
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Excludos
Norway7954 Posts
On September 27 2024 01:32 sertas wrote: US isn't giving any economical aid to ukraine, I don't know where you got that from? It used to do that in 2022 and 2023 but not anymore, EU is the only contributor to the ukraine economy this year and is also the bigger contributor in total weapons and money sent Where did you get this from? US pretty famously gave a pretty sizeable contribution this year, after sitting on their ass for way too long. And they literally just confirmed another 8 billion as of today. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ | ||
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KwarK
United States41991 Posts
On September 27 2024 02:38 Excludos wrote: Where did you get this from? US pretty famously gave a pretty sizeable contribution this year, after sitting on their ass for way too long. And they literally just confirmed another 8 billion as of today. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ Not to weigh in on whether he's right or not but he's making a distinction between cash given to the Ukrainian government to spend on the cost of running the country and direct military assistance/vouchers that can be spent at US arms manufacturers. | ||
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Excludos
Norway7954 Posts
On September 27 2024 02:49 KwarK wrote: Not to weigh in on whether he's right or not but he's making a distinction between cash given to the Ukrainian government to spend on the cost of running the country and direct military assistance/vouchers that can be spent at US arms manufacturers. My bad, you're right. I didn't read his comment properly | ||
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zboh
42 Posts
On September 27 2024 00:07 Simberto wrote: Okay. So what was the point of that post? Just rambling off what is on your mind in some weird stream of consciousness form? I was answering to someone else. Try this then: Do you think that Ukraine is (now) in a better situation than Russia? Do you believe that Ukraine will be in a better situation than Russia in two years time? What facts do you have to sustain your believe? | ||
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