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United States43401 Posts
In my view Russia’s economy won’t change much from here, it’ll just experience increasing labour competition and reduced consumer imports as the foreign currency reserves dry up and it becomes increasingly dependent on low quality imports from China/India. Though it will always have some euros/dollars from hydrocarbon exports the preexisting war chest, built over two decades, is getting exhausted and India is paying for crude in rupees etc.
Within Russia jobs are up, salaries are up. This huge influx of artificial demand produces misleading economic distortions. You can easily get a job at a tank factory refurbishing tanks and the tank factory has to offer high salaries because it is competing with the army which is offering huge signup bonuses. So things temporarily appear good for many Russians. The widow-to-be can take her husband’s signup bonus and go buy a car that would previously have been unaffordable, stimulating demand. But the car factory is also competing with the tank factory and army and the cars are made with steel that also has competing usages.
The source of the government spent rubles is going to be the savings of the people. The government pays someone an exorbitant salary. They deposit it into the bank. The government compels the bank to loan the rubles to the central government and then they pay the guy again with his own money. You can do that for ages before anyone notices, as long as you keep interest rates high enough that they prefer to save than spend. The worker is effectively a slave, but he doesn’t realize because the number in the electronic banking app keeps going up. Even better for the state if they choose to keep their foreign currency savings in a bank because those can be replaced at will by the government with rubles at an official rate.
But that money previously would have been loaned out by the bank directly. Capital investment in businesses will drop, reinvestment in the economy will drop, productive labour will drop. People will extend the lives of assets that would otherwise have been retired and upgraded. Working days will get longer and the selection of goods that you can buy with your salary will get worse. It won’t collapse overnight, Russians put up with living in the USSR, but it’ll be much worse for the average Russian than had they not been ruled by a mafia state.
All of this is just stating the obvious though. If someone asked whether it would be good for the economy to shoot a million men, conscript a million more, dedicate a large potion of the economy to blowing up their Soviet inheritance and burn their foreign currency reserves the answer would always be no. Even though that would also increase labour demand, salaries, and provide economic stimulus.
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Feels like it's mostly a question of if the war ends before it becomes a problem or not. If the conflict ends, you send people home and you stop building tanks the economy cools down, intrest rates go down and people start using their savings. Then everything is fine.
If you run out of money before that point I guess they start printing to pay their domestic intrest rates?
Question is how long that takes. In theory if oil and gas prices goes up it could be sustained indefinently.
Probably a lot of factors involved beyond that too like what happens when the soviet stockpiles run out and you have to build everything from scratch, how many % of refining capacity can Ukraine keep offline, will solidier salaries keep going up etc etc.
Question is how Ukraine holds up in the meantime. No doubt Putin wants to keep going untill 2025.
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On June 17 2024 23:46 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
Feels like it's mostly a question of if the war ends before it becomes a problem or not. If the conflict ends, you send people home and you stop building tanks the economy cools down, intrest rates go down and people start using their savings. Then everything is fine.
Not exactly. After you've been running on war economy for a while it's not that easy to switch back. Some of the businesses that were there previously will no longer be present - work force being taken away by army or moving on to work for war industry that at the time paid better, shortage of supplies and broken supply chains in general will probably end quite a lot of work places, especially ones requiring fairly unskilled labor (those that can be poached by the army and factories).
This means that once you no longer need the war economy you now have a whole over-saturated industry that you have no need for and that wasn't producing anything lasting or really worth anything in the time of peace. Factories will be closed down, people will be laid off and they won't have any other place to work at because of all the closed businesses. Poverty and crime will skyrocket due to that and assuming the country can somehow survive this for a lengthy period it may get back to normalcy but it'll probably take years to re-open businesses, restore supply chains etc.
It's not like you can flip a switch and change your entire industrial base and economy overnight.
Edit:
But we all have to keep in mind that Russia is not a normal country and if 70 year old people are forced to work for a slice of bread they will. They're used to being abused by dictatorships and won't complain. Remember how Russia killed over 20 million of its own citizens? No one even flinched at that and the guy who did it is revered there to this day.
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Russian Federation186 Posts
No doubt Putin wants to keep going untill 2025.
Putin made an announcement like yeasterday: complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, official abandonment of plans to join NATO, denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine.
Zelensky will not accept this, he still wants to come to 1991 borders, which is impossible.
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Such a peaceful and honest guy, that mister Putin.
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On June 18 2024 16:49 EEk1TwEEk wrote:Putin made an announcement like yeasterday: complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, official abandonment of plans to join NATO, denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. Zelensky will not accept this, he still wants to come to 1991 borders, which is impossible.
The demands from Putin you listed are just as impossible, for myriad obvious reasons.
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Bot edit.
User was banned for this post.
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On June 18 2024 16:49 EEk1TwEEk wrote:Putin made an announcement like yeasterday: complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, official abandonment of plans to join NATO, denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. Zelensky will not accept this, he still wants to come to 1991 borders, which is impossible.
So basically "If you surrender, we will stop attacking" (With a subtext of "for a few years, until we have built up our strength again. You can take these years to consider being a good minion again, else...")
What a nice and fair peace offer.
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On June 18 2024 18:51 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2024 16:49 EEk1TwEEk wrote: No doubt Putin wants to keep going untill 2025. Putin made an announcement like yeasterday: complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, official abandonment of plans to join NATO, denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. Zelensky will not accept this, he still wants to come to 1991 borders, which is impossible. So basically "If you surrender, we will stop attacking" (With a subtext of "for a few years, until we have built up our strength again. You can take these years to consider being a good minion again, else...") What a nice and fair peace offer.
At least it is honest one  not trying to do a rebuild peace
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United States43401 Posts
It’s precisely because Putin has no intention to invade Ukraine that he insists it not join a defensive alliance. Any idiot can see that. The only way for Ukraine to be safe from invasion is to disarm and not join any defensive alliances.
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On June 18 2024 16:49 EEk1TwEEk wrote:Putin made an announcement like yeasterday: complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, official abandonment of plans to join NATO, denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. Zelensky will not accept this, he still wants to come to 1991 borders, which is impossible.
Which is basically saying: Yes Putin wants to keep going
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On June 18 2024 16:49 EEk1TwEEk wrote:Putin made an announcement like yeasterday: complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, official abandonment of plans to join NATO, denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. Zelensky will not accept this, he still wants to come to 1991 borders, which is impossible.
Just shows how delusional fascists are. ;-)
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Russian Federation186 Posts
[/QUOTE]
The demands from Putin you listed are just as impossible, for myriad obvious reasons.[/QUOTE]
The war will then continue,a dn soon there will be no Ukraine, it would be divided by Russia and Poland
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On June 19 2024 01:31 EEk1TwEEk wrote:Show nested quote +
The demands from Putin you listed are just as impossible, for myriad obvious reasons.
The war will then continue,a dn soon there will be no Ukraine, it would be divided by Russia and Poland
Russian delusion and projection at its peak. It also shows utterly poor understanding of other countries, in this case Poland. Russian imperialists like you cannot fathom that most other nations have no desire to conquer their neighbors. Partitioning Ukraine with Russia is a fringe of a fringe position in Polish politics. Not even our nationalists with their 4-5% share of the electorate support that.
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On June 18 2024 16:49 EEk1TwEEk wrote:Putin made an announcement like yeasterday: complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, official abandonment of plans to join NATO, denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. Zelensky will not accept this, he still wants to come to 1991 borders, which is impossible.
I honestly think these two in bold are the actual biggest sticking points. You can fudge the maps of above regions to align with current borders and maybe get Ukraine to accept it. But it would require a signed promise of NATO membership the same day it signed the theoretical peace treaty to consider it.
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Finland955 Posts
Maybe Russia could also pinky swear not to invade a demilitarized Ukraine in the future.
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On June 19 2024 02:20 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2024 16:49 EEk1TwEEk wrote: No doubt Putin wants to keep going untill 2025. Putin made an announcement like yeasterday: complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, official abandonment of plans to join NATO, denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. Zelensky will not accept this, he still wants to come to 1991 borders, which is impossible. I honestly think these two in bold are the actual biggest sticking points. You can fudge the maps of above regions to align with current borders and maybe get Ukraine to accept it. But it would require a signed promise of NATO membership the same day it signed the theoretical peace treaty to consider it.
Yea, if this war ends in any kind of treaty, there is going to be a MASSIVE DMZ all along the Ukrainian/Russian border with NATO troops posted to it year round, like the Korean DMZ only much bigger.
Putin is brain dead if he thinks Ukraine is going to accept a treaty that just allows Russia to come back in 10 years after they've had time to regroup and build up their army again.
They gave up their nuclear weapons in the 90's under the agreement that Russia would guarantee Ukraine's security (the US as well) and now Russia is the one killing their people and trying to steal their land. They aren't going to make the same mistake twice.
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On June 18 2024 16:49 EEk1TwEEk wrote:Putin made an announcement like yeasterday: complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, official abandonment of plans to join NATO, denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. Zelensky will not accept this, he still wants to come to 1991 borders, which is impossible.
Zelenskys term as president ended a month ago without the offical backing of parliament or the supreme court of Ukraine, and legally he isnt in a position to accept or reject anything.
That said, its been clear for some time now that every comming peace offer is going to be worse and worse for Ukraine as a whole and its not going to be the politicians there that will pay the price
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On June 19 2024 15:51 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2024 16:49 EEk1TwEEk wrote: No doubt Putin wants to keep going untill 2025. Putin made an announcement like yeasterday: complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, official abandonment of plans to join NATO, denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. Zelensky will not accept this, he still wants to come to 1991 borders, which is impossible. Zelenskys term as president ended a month ago without the offical backing of parliament or the supreme court of Ukraine, and legally he isnt in a position to accept or reject anything.
Ukrainian law doesn't allow elections to be held whilst martial law is in effect. So Zelensky is legally the president until martial law can be lifted and elections can be held.
Your assertion is a total misread of the situation.
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Let's not start discussion again, please.
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EPT
