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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On March 21 2024 20:21 Manit0u wrote:
There was a big long range attack on Kiev this morning. 11 Tu-95MS bombers launched a total of 29 Ch-101 maneuvering missiles and 2 ballistic missiles (Iskander) which traveled 1800km to strike at Kiev from different directions. All missiles were shot down, there were several lightly wounded people, no casualties, minor damage to infrastructure from falling debris.
Wow I wonder why. Seems like an expensive commitment to test the air defence. Are they just trying to remind Kiev that there is a war going on?
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Zurich15366 Posts
Keep in mind that "damage from falling debris from rocket fragments" is often wartime PR speech for we were not able to shoot down all incoming missiles and one/some hit their targets.
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Well it might be that. But it might be also true, Missiles are large fast moving obejcts. Succesful interception doesnt always mean the payload/fuel explodes mid-air. Sometime they go off course/fall to the ground and still explode although in an uncontrolled way...
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On March 21 2024 22:01 zatic wrote:
Keep in mind that "damage from falling debris from rocket fragments" is often wartime PR speech for we were not able to shoot down all incoming missiles and one/some hit their targets.
It looks more like coincidental damage rather than actual hits. Ch-101 rockets weigh over 2 tons and are able to level entire buildings. Damage reported in Kiev are some shattered windows, a few fires (3 cars burned down) etc. so it doesn't look like a result of direct hits. Only 13 people were injured.
![[image loading]](https://portalmilitarny.pl/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/432215652_824008246433733_8751099654060273113_n.jpg)
![[image loading]](https://portalmilitarny.pl/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GJLNtDiWQAAGC9-.jpg)
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On March 21 2024 22:20 Silvanel wrote:
Well it might be that. But it might be also true, Missiles are large fast moving obejcts. Succesful interception doesnt always mean the payload/fuel explodes mid-air. Sometime they go off course/fall to the ground and still explode although in an uncontrolled way...
And even if you completely blow them up in the air: Stuff doesn't randomly disappear. The whole rocket (minus the part parts of the explosive that turned to gas) still falls down in pieces.
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On March 21 2024 21:47 0x64 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 20:21 Manit0u wrote:
There was a big long range attack on Kiev this morning. 11 Tu-95MS bombers launched a total of 29 Ch-101 maneuvering missiles and 2 ballistic missiles (Iskander) which traveled 1800km to strike at Kiev from different directions. All missiles were shot down, there were several lightly wounded people, no casualties, minor damage to infrastructure from falling debris. Wow I wonder why. Seems like an expensive commitment to test the air defence. Are they just trying to remind Kiev that there is a war going on?
Cruelty is the reason. This has always been how Russia has operated. They choose civilian targets over military ones, even when it benefits their war efforts a lot less
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Among the helicopters Czech Republic passed on to Ukraine recently there was one interesting Mi-35 with the "Alien" paint scheme:
It was supposedly repainted with normal camo before being sent off. Kinda pity 
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US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries
The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning that the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times.
One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity. Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector. Oil prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, to $85 a barrel, pushing up fuel costs just as US President Joe Biden begins his campaign for re-election. Washington is also concerned that if Ukraine keeps hitting Russian facilities, including many that are hundreds of miles from the border, Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west.
www.ft.com
The article above comes as we enter the second day of mass long range missile strikes, today focusing on the energy sector after yesterdays strikes on depots and supply chains. Confirmed hits in Odessa, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Khmelnitsky, Dnepropetrovsk, and Lvov regions. The largest HPP in Ukraine got hit twice and will be very difficult to bring online again even after hostilities end.
Since the elections ended there has been a noticible shift in rhetoric out of Moscow. Seems like things are only going to escalate further from here
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The solution seems very simple. Increase weapon supplies to Ukraine and help them decisively win the land war so they don't have to attack Russia's infrastructure as an alternative means to gain advantages.
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Current missile attacks are way smaller than the 2022 winter campaign wich saw around 1000 missiles and drones in a three month period. This is just bussiness as usual for russia in this war.
Afaik the oil is only refined oil which is used domestically in russia, not the crude oil that is exported and affect global prices. So it seems very far fetched that ukraine would stop hitting the refined oil production that russia uses for the war. Seems like a perfectly good millitary target that they should keep hammering all year because it's obviously hurting russia, and they have no way to defend against it.
I still don't belivie us actually asked them to stop until I see official statement, it could be some bought russian republican who is saying this as the source or just made up.
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United States44449 Posts
The sooner Russia surrenders the more refining infrastructure will survive the war.
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One person said that the White House
Ooooh nooo, why won't the world think of one person.
Power infrastructure strikes seems to be very efficient. Large target that cannot move or be hidden. We can only admire Ukraine to have been patient enough to wait 2 years before targeting those while Russia was targetting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Russia only understand force and consequences.
It's like they'd nuke the US, and after the US nukes back they'd be "we told you they are evil and wanted to nuke us"
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On March 22 2024 23:04 sertas wrote:
Current missile attacks are way smaller than the 2022 winter campaign wich saw around 1000 missiles and drones in a three month period. This is just bussiness as usual for russia in this war.
Afaik the oil is only refined oil which is used domestically in russia, not the crude oil that is exported and affect global prices. So it seems very far fetched that ukraine would stop hitting the refined oil production that russia uses for the war. Seems like a perfectly good millitary target that they should keep hammering all year because it's obviously hurting russia, and they have no way to defend against it.
I still don't belivie us actually asked them to stop until I see official statement, it could be some bought russian republican who is saying this as the source or just made up.
Last night was 151 drones + cruise/ballistic missiles and was one of the largest strikes (if not the largest) attacks during this war.
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On March 23 2024 00:34 Silvanel wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2024 23:04 sertas wrote:
Current missile attacks are way smaller than the 2022 winter campaign wich saw around 1000 missiles and drones in a three month period. This is just bussiness as usual for russia in this war.
Afaik the oil is only refined oil which is used domestically in russia, not the crude oil that is exported and affect global prices. So it seems very far fetched that ukraine would stop hitting the refined oil production that russia uses for the war. Seems like a perfectly good millitary target that they should keep hammering all year because it's obviously hurting russia, and they have no way to defend against it.
I still don't belivie us actually asked them to stop until I see official statement, it could be some bought russian republican who is saying this as the source or just made up. Last night was 151 drones + cruise/ballistic missiles and was one of the largest strikes (if not the largest) attacks during this war.
Yeah but it's one strike, during the big infrastructure attacks russia burned through their whole stocks of missiles during a 3-6 month period sending waves of 60-100+ missiles each time, many times.
Now they are basicly sending a wave of missiles every 3 months instead of every week.
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On March 22 2024 22:05 zeo wrote:US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineriesShow nested quote +The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning that the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times.
One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity. Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector. Oil prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, to $85 a barrel, pushing up fuel costs just as US President Joe Biden begins his campaign for re-election. Washington is also concerned that if Ukraine keeps hitting Russian facilities, including many that are hundreds of miles from the border, Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west. www.ft.comThe article above comes as we enter the second day of mass long range missile strikes, today focusing on the energy sector after yesterdays strikes on depots and supply chains. Confirmed hits in Odessa, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Khmelnitsky, Dnepropetrovsk, and Lvov regions. The largest HPP in Ukraine got hit twice and will be very difficult to bring online again even after hostilities end. https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1771073551904260158https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1771134280762286555Since the elections ended there has been a noticible shift in rhetoric out of Moscow. Seems like things are only going to escalate further from here
This doesn't track with official US stances even a tiny bit. They just announced further sanctions to stop Russian oil even further. If they were at all worried about the global oil price, this would not be a reasonable action to take
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On March 21 2024 21:47 0x64 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 20:21 Manit0u wrote:
There was a big long range attack on Kiev this morning. 11 Tu-95MS bombers launched a total of 29 Ch-101 maneuvering missiles and 2 ballistic missiles (Iskander) which traveled 1800km to strike at Kiev from different directions. All missiles were shot down, there were several lightly wounded people, no casualties, minor damage to infrastructure from falling debris. Wow I wonder why. Seems like an expensive commitment to test the air defence. Are they just trying to remind Kiev that there is a war going on?
I think it just took them this long to collect a new stockpile big enough for a strike.
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On March 22 2024 23:04 sertas wrote:
Current missile attacks are way smaller than the 2022 winter campaign wich saw around 1000 missiles and drones in a three month period. This is just bussiness as usual for russia in this war.
Afaik the oil is only refined oil which is used domestically in russia, not the crude oil that is exported and affect global prices. So it seems very far fetched that ukraine would stop hitting the refined oil production that russia uses for the war. Seems like a perfectly good millitary target that they should keep hammering all year because it's obviously hurting russia, and they have no way to defend against it.
I still don't belivie us actually asked them to stop until I see official statement, it could be some bought russian republican who is saying this as the source or just made up.
The air campaigns of 2022 and 2023 never really systematically targeted energy generation facilities with the aim of permanently taking them out of order. Substations and distribution networks were targeted but damage was always repairable, taking out a 1500MW hydroelectric plant has much deeper implications. Taking out more of them can bring the country to its knees.
NATO has always massively targeted dual-use infrastructure regardless of the human costs on the populations they were attacking, taking power, food and water away from the civilians deeply affects the military. Why Russia didn't cause a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine from the outset is quite obvious if they were planning regime change.
Everyone has their own view on how the elections in Russia went, whatever your view is the government itself at least knows how much of the populations is really behind them and how far they can go with unpopular routes. Reading various views there is a very long way to go with escalations whether its sending Ukraine to the stone age, giving anti ship missiles to the Yemenis, bombing both Channel Tunnels if the Crimean Bridge gets hit by the Brits/French, not saying it will happen but how far is too far depends on how far both sides are willing to go. And the Russian government now feels that it has the mandate to do so.
I used to think that a complete blackout in Ukraine would be impossible because of the political implications of taking basic human essentials away from the pro-Russian civilian populations, now after this evenings events at Crocus City Hall I'm not so sure.
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The story about Americans urging Ukraine to stop bombing Russian refineries is very perplexing and at least parts of it seem to be confirmed.
Ukraine says Russian oil refineries are legitimate targetsKYIV, March 22 (Reuters) - A Ukrainian deputy prime minister said on Friday Russian oil refineries were legitimate targets for its forces, after a media report said the United States, a close ally, had asked Kyiv to stop conducting drone strikes on refineries. Ukraine dramatically stepped up its attacks on Russian energy facilities this month, launching numerous long-range drones to strike Russia's biggest refineries, resulting in the temporary suspension of production at some of them. "We understand the calls of the U.S. partners, but at the same time we are fighting with the capabilities, resources, and practices that we have," Olha Stefanishyna, the minister, told the Kyiv Security Forum.She said energy facilities were legitimate targets from a military point of view. The Financial Times cited people familiar with the matter saying Washington had urged Kyiv to halt strikes, warning of the risk of provoking retaliation and driving up global oil prices. The attacks helped boost oil prices that have risen nearly 4% so far since March 12, when Ukraine hit a major oil refinery. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-oil-refineries-are-legitimate-targets-2024-03-22/
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On March 23 2024 03:20 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2024 23:04 sertas wrote:
Current missile attacks are way smaller than the 2022 winter campaign wich saw around 1000 missiles and drones in a three month period. This is just bussiness as usual for russia in this war.
Afaik the oil is only refined oil which is used domestically in russia, not the crude oil that is exported and affect global prices. So it seems very far fetched that ukraine would stop hitting the refined oil production that russia uses for the war. Seems like a perfectly good millitary target that they should keep hammering all year because it's obviously hurting russia, and they have no way to defend against it.
I still don't belivie us actually asked them to stop until I see official statement, it could be some bought russian republican who is saying this as the source or just made up. The air campaigns of 2022 and 2023 never really systematically targeted energy generation facilities with the aim of permanently taking them out of order. Substations and distribution networks were targeted but damage was always repairable, taking out a 1500MW hydroelectric plant has much deeper implications. Taking out more of them can bring the country to its knees. NATO has always massively targeted dual-use infrastructure regardless of the human costs on the populations they were attacking, taking power, food and water away from the civilians deeply affects the military. Why Russia didn't cause a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine from the outset is quite obvious if they were planning regime change. Everyone has their own view on how the elections in Russia went, whatever your view is the government itself at least knows how much of the populations is really behind them and how far they can go with unpopular routes. Reading various views there is a very long way to go with escalations whether its sending Ukraine to the stone age, giving anti ship missiles to the Yemenis, bombing both Channel Tunnels if the Crimean Bridge gets hit by the Brits/French, not saying it will happen but how far is too far depends on how far both sides are willing to go. And the Russian government now feels that it has the mandate to do so. I used to think that a complete blackout in Ukraine would be impossible because of the political implications of taking basic human essentials away from the pro-Russian civilian populations, now after this evenings events at Crocus City Hall I'm not so sure.
My faith in human intelligence is lowered quite a lot reading this. Yes russian are such saints they dont want to cause a crisis lol. russia would reduce ukraine to the stone age tommorow if they could press a button to do so, unfortunantly if they nuke they wont win this war thats why they dont do it, because the west will have to respond.
russia cant escalate anything more than they already have, they're allin to win this war.
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On March 23 2024 03:20 zeo wrote:
I used to think that a complete blackout in Ukraine would be impossible because of the political implications of taking basic human essentials away from the pro-Russian civilian populations, now after this evenings events at Crocus City Hall I'm not so sure.
Are you saying this because you think they'll use this against Ukraine even if was done by some militant group from a disgruntled minority (as is usually the case with terrorist attacks in Russia) OR are you saying this because you personally are assuming it was Ukraine?
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EPT![[image loading]](https://scontent-waw2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/431524591_931655158961938_4021020403147340873_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5f2048&_nc_ohc=TbEvRnXuAl4AX8HJGU2&_nc_ht=scontent-waw2-1.xx&oh=00_AfDbrEe0lqEc7ngn9axEAz_ppuVuRzld8zkBWXr6pSJTvQ&oe=66020D11)
