EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 657
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18292 Posts
On February 22 2024 00:55 JimmiC wrote: By that logic you can't know anything because everything could be a trick, or a trick on a trick. At some point 99% or whatever you just have to figure that if it sounds like, acts like and looks like a duck its really likely a duck. Or in this case, it walks like a Russian assassin and quacks like a Russian assassin. | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28798 Posts
But Russia and the US obviously have different targets. If Putin-friendly oligarchs end up experiencing a higher frequency of mysterious car accidents, then sure, suspicion might be warranted, but I dunno who we are suspecting that theyve killed off. They're not gonna kill opposition politicians or critical journalists to incriminate Putin. | ||
Falling
Canada11520 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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0x64
Finland4615 Posts
People placing flowers after the death of Navalny also have been massively arrested, some are getting mobilized. New form at the boundary also can be asked to be filed, with questions about opinion about the war... Things are really falling fast and dark in russia. | ||
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aseq
Netherlands4000 Posts
On February 21 2024 21:33 SC-Shield wrote: Didn't issues with Ukraine and Georgia start when they announced that they wanted to join NATO? At this point, Putin must have realised that once in NATO, they aren't going to leave anytime soon and not leaving means ever shrinking sphere of influence. Hence, I guess this is the reason why Kremlin compares war in Ukraine to "life or death" of Russia which is silly as if they think it's zero-sum game. Overall, Russia's position to have "buffer zones" or being afraid is something I still don't understand. Russia has such a large territory that they can probably make a nuclear launch site every 100-200 km "just in case" and still be fine even when they lose a few somehow. Besides, their vast territory is a buffer enough as this is how Hitler and Napoleon lost. No country has the resources to fully occupy Russia and if they're afraid of united NATO can do that, well, there are nukes. So what are they afraid of? It seems it's about soft power / sphere of influence after all, not about Russia's survival. I wonder what would happen if somehow Mexico allied with China and China started building 'defensive' army bases near the northern Mexican border. Because I can imagine that's what this might feel like to Russia. Not condoning any of their actions, of course. But I think USA would not like sovereignty as much in that case either. | ||
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hitthat
Poland2341 Posts
On February 22 2024 12:30 aseq wrote: I wonder what would happen if somehow Mexico allied with China and China started building 'defensive' army bases near the northern Mexican border. Because I can imagine that's what this might feel like to Russia. Not condoning any of their actions, of course. But I think USA would not like sovereignty as much in that case either. From the logical point of view nothing would happen, because USA is a nuclear power and chinese bases would be exacly null threat to the integrity of the United States. (Unless , ofc, chinese nukes were stockpiled inside Mexico. In that case the problem escalates from psychological to strategic). Add to that, european part of NATO reduced their militaries before 2014 and you will understand of why in eastern europe we do not buy shit like this from Russia. Polish People's Republic had 3000 tanks, around 500 planes (mostli LIM-6 air-to-ground attack aircraft), much bigger fleet and 300k of troops at peace. Untill 2010, we reduced the armies to around 900 tanks, little more than 100 planes, no conscription, almost non-existant fleet and less than 100k professional troops. Meanwhile, we had to tolerate Topol missiles in Kaliningrad, with only defence pact giving us any ledger against Russians. As long as those assholes from the East were not doing anything nasty, we were fine with that. Georgian war eroded that stance, but not much. Than 2014 happened and shaken this confidence, and than 2022 shattered it completely. No more relying in good faith. That's why polish defence budget skyrocketed last year. We would not trust this kremlin monkey a word, even if his words that he do not attack eastern NATO countries unless attacked first, were honest and true. Liars are not to be trusted and are not a partners to talk or playing nice. | ||
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0x64
Finland4615 Posts
On February 22 2024 12:30 aseq wrote: I wonder what would happen if somehow Mexico allied with China and China started building 'defensive' army bases near the northern Mexican border. Because I can imagine that's what this might feel like to Russia. Not condoning any of their actions, of course. But I think USA would not like sovereignty as much in that case either. Well, they did try that with Cuba, so we do not need to speculate. USA stops this from happening, always. I don't see a world today where this does not happen. But did USA bomb the shit out of Cuba (not saying they were nice there and that the shitfest in half of the latin american countries were not the doing of CIA) Anyway, what Russia is doing today is like USA suddenly saying that Cuba should not be allied with Russia and invade them on that reason alone. Keep in mind that Russia is surrounded by non-allied nations, so Ukraine is not unique in any way, they just were within a Mafia system and tried to leave. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22373 Posts
On February 22 2024 12:30 aseq wrote: Would the USA like it? No. Might they sanction or otherwise pressure Mexico? Almost certainly.I wonder what would happen if somehow Mexico allied with China and China started building 'defensive' army bases near the northern Mexican border. Because I can imagine that's what this might feel like to Russia. Not condoning any of their actions, of course. But I think USA would not like sovereignty as much in that case either. But would they launch an invasion to annex Mexico? 100% no. Russia can be unhappy about NATO but that does not excuse their actions in any way, and their actions in fact only serve to prove NATO, and everyone fleeing Russia's influence for the embrace of NATO, right. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18292 Posts
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KwarK
United States43991 Posts
On February 22 2024 19:09 Acrofales wrote: Well, when that happened in Cuba, the cold war was in full swing. The East and West were a LOT less friendly in general, but it's worth remembering that the US did try to invade Cuba, and failed. The Bay of Pigs happened. Not an invasion. That was supporting Cuban proxy forces. Had the US actually invaded they’d have won. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5811 Posts
On February 22 2024 12:30 aseq wrote: I wonder what would happen if somehow Mexico allied with China and China started building 'defensive' army bases near the northern Mexican border. Because I can imagine that's what this might feel like to Russia. Not condoning any of their actions, of course. But I think USA would not like sovereignty as much in that case either. Russia stripped its military bases in Kaliningrad and the border with Finland down to about 20% of personnel. It also moved its anti-air assets from St Petersburg to occupied Ukraine. This should tell you all about how much they actually fear NATO. I don't think NATO has issued a single hostile statement towards Russia in the past 30+ years, not to mention any hostile actions). Meanwhile, Russia has been threatening various NATO members with unprovoked military attacks on a weekly basis. It has carried out assassinations on NATO soil, as well as small scale attacks on arms manufacturers and military depots in NATO countries (that alone could serve as a casus belli). | ||
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KwarK
United States43991 Posts
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0x64
Finland4615 Posts
On February 23 2024 02:27 KwarK wrote: The Salisbury chemical weapon attacks were an attack by Russian military on a British city killing British citizens using a nerve agent. They literally attacked NATO. As maybenexttime says, they are not feeling threatened by NATO. Perhaps that is the problem, maybe they should be. The thing is that fear is not a factor, I have Russian family, they already have enough to fear from their own government. You can get years of jail carrying a flower :D. I know what you mean, but Nato is the least of their worry. Their own people has always been their worst fear, as they'd be the one carrying the sentence. They get to send other's kid to war so yeah. Make Russians unhappy enough so that they take the matter in their own hands does not exists. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22373 Posts
On February 23 2024 02:35 0x64 wrote: I don't think Kwark is talking about making Russian citizens fear NATO, he means putting the fear of NATO in Putin and the Russian government.The thing is that fear is not a factor, I have Russian family, they already have enough to fear from their own government. You can get years of jail carrying a flower :D. I know what you mean, but Nato is the least of their worry. Their own people has always been their worst fear, as they'd be the one carrying the sentence. They get to send other's kid to war so yeah. Make Russians unhappy enough so that they take the matter in their own hands does not exists. Flying a plane into a building was reason to remove a regime from power. A chemical weapon attack on NATO soil would be a valid reason to remove Putin from power with extreme prejudice. We don't because we consider the risk of nuclear war to high but Russia is obviously a lot less careful in that calculous. | ||
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0x64
Finland4615 Posts
On February 23 2024 02:42 Gorsameth wrote: I don't think Kwark is talking about making Russian citizens fear NATO, he means putting the fear of NATO in Putin and the Russian government. Flying a plane into a building was reason to remove a regime from power. A chemical weapon attack on NATO soil would be a valid reason to remove Putin from power with extreme prejudice. We don't because we consider the risk of nuclear war to high but Russia is obviously a lot less careful in that calculous. Yeah, I know, but that doesn't work, that makes them feel even more important "they stand against to occident enemy" The real fear is their people and the "emperor has no clothes", the smallest sign that people are uniting is the biggest threat right now. The services have been investigating if the spontaneous flowers for Navalny's death were not organised by someone... They just forgot what people do when someone dies. No need for some crazy mastermind. I mean if some people decided to drop tiny pebbles in public places such as supermarket, train stations... You would start to notice the presence of the pebbles and all the forces would be mobilized to find people with pebbles in their pockets. I small grain of sand can stop the machine... One domino must fall first. | ||
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zeo
Serbia6342 Posts
With the end of the Krynky filler arc over the last few days and the Russians pushing through on multiple fronts we can get a rough idea of how things will go in the next few months. The Russians won't be forcing the Dnieper to take Herson any time soon, the Krynky disaster has shown that they would need to destroy a large part of Kiev's forces to even try to force the river. And the destroying would need to be done on the left bank if Russia wants to end the conflict on her terms. Since the Ukrainian government does not have large military formations (not since the counteroffensive), Russian backline maneuvers would not lead to more troops ending up encircled so Russian movement will be concentrated on bypassing and cutting off the most fortified Ukrainian lines to reduce casualties. Ukraine seems to have no more high-quality units that can stop a Russian penetration and will have to sacrifice space to buy time to form them, but if Russia continues to exert constant pressure, the question is whether they will be able to create any reserves at all. With Krynky abandoned it frees up 4 battalions that are much needed in the east, they might be filled out with fresh mobilized but in what kind of shape they are is anyones guess. We do not have real data on how the new wave of mobilisation is going, but the motivation and level of training / physical preparation of the newly mobilized is a large question mark. A huge Russian offensive is unlikely (in my view) any time soon because the emphasis will continue to be on destroying Ukrainian forces at a faster rate than they can rebuild them. This is a systematic trend in both manpower and equipment, the problems are not just artillery shells, its everything. The stronger you are the less you lose, the weaker you are all the vulnerabilities are amplified and losses are ramping up exponentially. So expect a shift from the current boiling point assaults into isometric, constant pressure towards the logistics centers that Kiev will have to absolutely defend. When there are no more forces able to defend the main communication and transport hubs, the front will collapse and there will be a mad dash for the Dnieper, only then can we expect to see manoeuvres to encircle the Ukrainian forces in retreat. Russia will only then force the Dnieper and make a break for Odessa - Tiraspol and the eventual siege of Kiev if it needs to come to that. | ||
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Dav1oN
Ukraine3164 Posts
On February 22 2024 08:34 0x64 wrote: The dictatureship is currently getting tougher in russian, with a big rise on citizen arrested for being "traitors". Currently a russian/american dual citizen was arrested because she donated 50usd to an ukranian organization at the begining of the war. People placing flowers after the death of Navalny also have been massively arrested, some are getting mobilized. New form at the boundary also can be asked to be filed, with questions about opinion about the war... Things are really falling fast and dark in russia. Welcome to 1984 IRL. BTW the book itself is also prohibited for public distribution | ||
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