EPTLooks like Ukraine gets GLSDB in the upcoming week. We'll see the impact that it starts making a bit later. Up in the air how many they get, it'll even out the artillery difference by letting them use them against cheaper targets, or in counterbattery roles.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 644
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
Looks like Ukraine gets GLSDB in the upcoming week. We'll see the impact that it starts making a bit later. Up in the air how many they get, it'll even out the artillery difference by letting them use them against cheaper targets, or in counterbattery roles. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Soldiers of the Group 13 special forces unit of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine destroyed the guided-missile corvette Ivanovets, part of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, on the night of 31 January-1 February 2024. "The operation was made possible with the support of the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine and the United24 platform. The enemy vessel was on the roadstead of Lake Donuzlav in temporarily occupied Crimea. As a result of a number of direct strikes to the hull, the Russian vessel sustained critical damage causing immobilisation – it heaved aft and sank." DIU noted that the value of the vessel lost is approximately US$60-70 million. According to early reports, the search and rescue operation of the Russian occupiers in Donuzlav was unsuccessful. Source | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5847 Posts
Ukraine's military intelligence destroyed a Russian corvette used for launching missiles, just off the coast of Crimea: https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/1-february-ukrainian-military-intelligence-reports-russian Some spectacular footage, to be honest. ;o Ukraine also successfully struck an airfield in Crimea, destroying one airplane and possibly two more, plus over a dozen military personnel. According to Russian Telegram channels, the Russians tried to scramble their airplanes, so it's likely that there are pilots among those killed. https://www.newsweek.com/crimea-airbase-attacks-ukraine-missile-storm-shadow-fighter-jets-russia-losses-1865896 And lastly, the EU finally passed a large financial aid package for Ukraine (non-military): https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68165971 | ||
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
On February 02 2024 01:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: No word on how many casualties as of yet. Though it could be a while as Russia is quite slow in admitting ship losses. https://youtu.be/mX1Gwk0qkV8?si=fPNLydygpRwIj9NS Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarantul-class_corvette Seems to be a crew of 50, and given it was at sea, it's probably at or near the full complement. It looks like there was return fire from the ship, so there were some crew on board. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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KwarK
United States44203 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On February 03 2024 00:19 KwarK wrote: Has the admiral that Ukraine reported killed in the storm shadow strike on the HQ 6 months ago been seen outside of the proof of life video where he lay completely motionless? If you mean this one https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-killed-russian-commander-sokolov-crimea-missile-attack/#:~:text=The commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Viktor,Another 105 occupiers were wounded. Then yes, as it often happens with Ukrainian claims, he had been https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12494222@egNews 0:17, 0:36 | ||
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Excludos
Norway8272 Posts
On February 03 2024 01:59 Ardias wrote: If you mean this one https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-killed-russian-commander-sokolov-crimea-missile-attack/#:~:text=The commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Viktor,Another 105 occupiers were wounded. Then yes, as it often happens with Ukrainian claims, he had been https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12494222@egNews https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEJx2vmCVxc 0:17, 0:36 What is he saying? Anything thay is actually relevant and proof of life, and not something that could have been filmed years ago? Every source I'm reading claims there has been no reliable proof of life since Ukraine's claim. If he actually was alive, Russia could easily deal a huge blow to Ukraine's PR by sinply having him hold up a newspaper, but they're not. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5847 Posts
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gobbledydook
Australia2605 Posts
War is about logistics and economy first of all. It appears that Russia is all in, and the West is losing its will to match it, even though it would be a comparatively small sacrifice. It was said a while ago that 10 million shells are needed each month for Ukraine, but there is no way the West with all its current combined production could get anywhere close. Russia presumably also had a shortfall but they have a large inheritance of shells and they're producing more. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17800 Posts
On February 04 2024 10:00 gobbledydook wrote: I don't think these tiny tactical victories matter in the long run. War is about logistics and economy first of all. It appears that Russia is all in, and the West is losing its will to match it, even though it would be a comparatively small sacrifice. It was said a while ago that 10 million shells are needed each month for Ukraine, but there is no way the West with all its current combined production could get anywhere close. Russia presumably also had a shortfall but they have a large inheritance of shells and they're producing more. Well, the US just passed a $50b package for Ukraine which will keep their lights on for the rest of the year. France said that they're committed to helping Ukraine even if US withdraws their support. Germany has recently sent plenty of vehicles and ammo to them. It seems to me like the West isn't abandoning Ukraine and they're ramping up their own production in the meantime. I also wouldn't count on Russia having a "large inheritance of shells" since recently they've been resorting to buying shells and ammo from North Korea, indicating their own supplies/production aren't enough. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On February 04 2024 07:00 Excludos wrote: What is he saying? Anything thay is actually relevant and proof of life, and not something that could have been filmed years ago? Every source I'm reading claims there has been no reliable proof of life since Ukraine's claim. If he actually was alive, Russia could easily deal a huge blow to Ukraine's PR by sinply having him hold up a newspaper, but they're not. Memorial to Andrey Paliy, which is being opened by Sokolov on the Youtube video, was opened on November 4th, 2023. https://vesti92.ru/2023/11/04/v-sevastopole-ustanovili-pamjatnik-zamestitelju-komandujuschego-chf-andreju-paliju.html http://xn----8sbfl6absaipdm0d2cmo.xn--p1ai/news/963-v-sevastopole-pochtili-pamyat-pavshikh-pri-provedenii-spetsialnoj-voennoj-operatsii-voinov https://forpostsevastopol.ru/social/v-sevastopole-pochtili-pamjat-pavshih-pri-provedenii-specialnoj-voennoj-operacii-voinov/ Claimed strike was on September 25th, 2023, as per Politico link above. As for PR warfare - same could be said about claimed kills of TDF commander Igor Tantsyura as well as Zaluzhniy himself, who both disappeared from the news for a few weeks, and first proof of life videos of Zaluzniy were suspicious at the very best (fueling the version that he was seriously wounded at least). Tantsyura was shown on video, like, 2+ months after his claimed death. So I guess both sides are not too bothered with PR wins on the matter of senior officers being killed (if it isn't for some most higher ups at least). On February 04 2024 10:00 gobbledydook wrote: I don't think these tiny tactical victories matter in the long run. War is about logistics and economy first of all. It appears that Russia is all in, and the West is losing its will to match it, even though it would be a comparatively small sacrifice. It was said a while ago that 10 million shells are needed each month for Ukraine, but there is no way the West with all its current combined production could get anywhere close. Russia presumably also had a shortfall but they have a large inheritance of shells and they're producing more. I guess it's either 10 million a year or 1 million a month. And even that number would put great strain on the existing artillery barrels. As for Russia's commitment - official claim is that 500 000 people were hired in the defence industrial sector since the start of the war. Now, it doesn't say how many were fired or voluntarily left, but I guess that it's at least not the majority. https://tass.ru/ekonomika/19874813 On February 04 2024 14:30 Manit0u wrote: Well, the US just passed a $50b package for Ukraine which will keep their lights on for the rest of the year. France said that they're committed to helping Ukraine even if US withdraws their support. Germany has recently sent plenty of vehicles and ammo to them. It seems to me like the West isn't abandoning Ukraine and they're ramping up their own production in the meantime. I also wouldn't count on Russia having a "large inheritance of shells" since recently they've been resorting to buying shells and ammo from North Korea, indicating their own supplies/production aren't enough. Wasn't it EU? US is still fighting about that in Congress due to Texas immigration crisis, I believe. Also it's $54b (50b euro) within 4 years https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ac_24_621 https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-hungary-eu-summit-budget-6d0f11bc16b4b21073f92925de2046e4 And Ukraine expects a $43b budget deficit in 2024 alone https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/will-western-aid-plug-ukraines-gaping-budget-deficit-2024-2023-12-15/ So without US money it won't be a good year for them. | ||
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Yurie
12132 Posts
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gobbledydook
Australia2605 Posts
On February 04 2024 18:56 Yurie wrote: The main issue with the West in general has been multi year contracts with the defense industry. It has been resolved to a certain degree by now but they were sending mixed signals previously. Resulting in the companies not starting to buy new machines/plants until the war had lasted a long while already. Now we are in the phase of waiting for those investments to come online. I'm not sure that shells that may or may not arrive in 5 years is very helpful to the war today. Russia buying shells from North Korea also doesn't mean much. Obviously every bit helps. Just like how the US bought shells from South Korea to send to Ukraine at one point. Of course Russia does not have enough shells either. No one does. But I'd confidently say at this point, Russia is not in as bad a shortage as Ukraine. | ||
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ZeroByte13
799 Posts
Soon it will be the 3rd year. Feels a bit weird to even think about it. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4768 Posts
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sertas
Sweden890 Posts
Yet most Russians think this is a great success and will think this war is the greatest thing to ever happen and will support it for many more years. Also I'm in disbelief that republicans are on team Russia. I learned something new for sure, no one would have convinced me of this before the war. | ||
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MJG
United Kingdom1451 Posts
On February 05 2024 18:36 sertas wrote: Also I'm in disbelief that republicans are on team Russia. I learned something new for sure, no one would have convinced me of this before the war. I listened to a segment on BBC Radio 4 this morning that suggested the Republicans are stalling aid to Ukraine because they don't want the other problems that they've tried to tie into that aid package (such as support for Israel, concessions on the Mexican border, concessions on immigration generally, etc.) to go away. They want to keep those issues live so that Trump can run on them. It's only the opinion of the political scientist they happened to have on the show (and I've unfortunately forgotten their name), but I found the idea pretty compelling. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4433 Posts
On February 04 2024 10:00 gobbledydook wrote: I don't think these tiny tactical victories matter in the long run. War is about logistics and economy first of all. It appears that Russia is all in, and the West is losing its will to match it, even though it would be a comparatively small sacrifice. It was said a while ago that 10 million shells are needed each month for Ukraine, but there is no way the West with all its current combined production could get anywhere close. Russia presumably also had a shortfall but they have a large inheritance of shells and they're producing more. Sanctions on Russia have had far less impact than the west had hoped, but has certainly helped strengthen Russias economic ties with China, India and the rest of the developing world.Russia is in a far better position to play out the long game.The west realises this which is why you see statements past two weeks from Head of British army Sanders calling for a return of conscription to fight Russia and Boris Johnson saying he would sign up in a war against Russia to fight for king and country and such nonsense.It really is getting ridiculous now. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13010871/BORIS-JOHNSON-fight-King-country.html Of course 3 months ago British Steel announced it was closing the last steel blast furnaces in England, at Scunthorpe with 2000 job losses and Tata steel announced last month it was closing both Port Talbot blast furnaces in Wales by end of year with 3000 jobs affected.Not competitive due to high energy prices? Ironic.Not good news if there was some kind of larger war, UK can't even produce steel any more.So we have war escalation rhetoric alongside news that all of the UKs current steel blast furnaces are set to shut?. OK then. https://www.gmb.org.uk/news/blast-furnace-closure-leaves-uk-woefully-underprepared-for-war | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22487 Posts
On February 05 2024 19:09 MJG wrote: Its not just the opinion of a political scientist. Its the actual public opinion of Republicans. They are just strait up coming out saying they don't want to fix problems because it would make Biden look better.I listened to a segment on BBC Radio 4 this morning that suggested the Republicans are stalling aid to Ukraine because they don't want the other problems that they've tried to tie into that aid package (such as support for Israel, concessions on the Mexican border, concessions on immigration generally, etc.) to go away. They want to keep those issues live so that Trump can run on them. It's only the opinion of the political scientist they happened to have on the show (and I've unfortunately forgotten their name), but I found the idea pretty compelling. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/troy-nehls-congress-secure-border-1234958223/ | ||
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