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On September 21 2023 03:20 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2023 02:57 Gorsameth wrote:On September 21 2023 02:42 Ardias wrote:On September 20 2023 22:16 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Well... yesterday Azerbaijan invaded Armenian backed Nagorno Karabakh militia etc. with 1500 Russian "peace keepers" in the area. they have surrendered... Russia started they wanted a diplomatic solution since Armenia stated they can no longer depend on Russia. Now this.
If the CTSO was on life support after last year, it is dead now.
I thought that Western community should cheer for a restored territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and getting rid of illegal Armenian occupation? On a serious note, never understood the point that Russia should have somehow intervened to defend Karabakh, when Armenia itself doesn't care to do so, never recognizing Karabakh as independent state, and Pashinyan himself stating that Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan. As for CSTO - yeah, Armenia under current government will never be an ally to Russia. If current course of events continues for some years, I would not exclude Iran as the member of CSTO in a few years (Shoigu is about to visit Tehran soon actually, I guess for the equipment talks). You can't run a defensive treaty organisation on the basis that your only there to help the others if you feel like it. What use does Iran have in joining the CSTO when they know now that Russia will absolutely not have their backs if push comes to shove? As for Armenia not caring. Is that why they called upon the CSTO back in 2022? Because they don't care about the conflict with Azerbaijan? And then Russia said no and the CSTO died right then and there. They called because there was a firefight in the Armenian-Azerbaijan border. However it has nothing to do with Karabakh and what {CC}StealthBlue had posted above. Iran has use is that Russia and Iran have a common adversary in form of Western powers, mainly US. Armenian government is firmly pro-US, so it figures that Russia wouldn't be eager to support them, especially considering that all their resources are tied in Ukraine. Also other CSTO members refused to partake as well. I don't see shit being thrown at Kazakhstan though.
Because Kazakhstan is Kazakhstan, while Russia is Russia. No one is especially scared of Kazakhstan. Russia is supposed to be the big powerhouse threat in that alliance. And now Azerbaijan just proves that a Russian guarantee is worthless, which means that any Russian attempt to build their own Nato equivalent is bound to fail.
If an attack on Nato happens, and the US doesn't react, nobody will care if Belgium got involved or not.
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On September 21 2023 03:20 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2023 02:57 Gorsameth wrote:On September 21 2023 02:42 Ardias wrote:On September 20 2023 22:16 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Well... yesterday Azerbaijan invaded Armenian backed Nagorno Karabakh militia etc. with 1500 Russian "peace keepers" in the area. they have surrendered... Russia started they wanted a diplomatic solution since Armenia stated they can no longer depend on Russia. Now this. If the CTSO was on life support after last year, it is dead now. https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1704426705761284183 I thought that Western community should cheer for a restored territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and getting rid of illegal Armenian occupation? On a serious note, never understood the point that Russia should have somehow intervened to defend Karabakh, when Armenia itself doesn't care to do so, never recognizing Karabakh as independent state, and Pashinyan himself stating that Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan. As for CSTO - yeah, Armenia under current government will never be an ally to Russia. If current course of events continues for some years, I would not exclude Iran as the member of CSTO in a few years (Shoigu is about to visit Tehran soon actually, I guess for the equipment talks). You can't run a defensive treaty organisation on the basis that your only there to help the others if you feel like it. What use does Iran have in joining the CSTO when they know now that Russia will absolutely not have their backs if push comes to shove? As for Armenia not caring. Is that why they called upon the CSTO back in 2022? Because they don't care about the conflict with Azerbaijan? And then Russia said no and the CSTO died right then and there. They called because there was a firefight in the Armenian-Azerbaijan border. However it has nothing to do with Karabakh and what {CC}StealthBlue had posted above. Iran has use is that Russia and Iran have a common adversary in form of Western powers, mainly US. Armenian government is firmly pro-US, so it figures that Russia wouldn't be eager to support them, especially considering that all their resources are tied in Ukraine. Also other CSTO members refused to partake as well. I don't see shit being thrown at Kazakhstan though. Turkey or Hungary aren't lining up with the rest of the West currently but no one doubt NATO's commitment to them should someone attack.
And if the US were to decline a country legitimately invoking art 5 no one would be talking about Portugal saying no aswell, they would rightfully blame the US for destroying the alliance. Just as everyone is rightfully pointing to Russia as the supposed power behind the CSTO being unwilling and unable to follow up on its commitment.
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United States44449 Posts
On September 21 2023 02:42 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2023 22:16 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Well... yesterday Azerbaijan invaded Armenian backed Nagorno Karabakh militia etc. with 1500 Russian "peace keepers" in the area. they have surrendered... Russia started they wanted a diplomatic solution since Armenia stated they can no longer depend on Russia. Now this. If the CTSO was on life support after last year, it is dead now. https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1704426705761284183 I thought that Western community should cheer for a restored territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and getting rid of illegal Armenian occupation? On a serious note, never understood the point that Russia should have somehow intervened to defend Karabakh, when Armenia itself doesn't care to do so, never recognizing Karabakh as independent state, and Pashinyan himself stating that Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan. As for CSTO - yeah, Armenia under current government will never be an ally to Russia. If current course of events continues for some years, I would not exclude Iran as the member of CSTO in a few years (Shoigu is about to visit Tehran soon actually, I guess for the equipment talks).
It’s a mess with war crimes and ethnic cleansing on both sides. The idea that Russia should intervene is based on the history of Armenian Christians and the Russian Orthodox Church assuming the role of protector of Christians in the region against Turks. It’s an old Tsarist Imperial notion that is, in part, connected to Nicholas’s desire to restore the Tsar to the historical seat of Tsars, Constantinople. The expectation and agreement for after WW1 was that Russia would displace the Ottomans and dominate the Caucasus, disrupted by the revolution.
It got a lot of Armenians genocided for their perceived divided sympathies, despite there being no evidence of Armenian unrest until the death marches started. Ottoman Empire just killed them because they could.
Modern sympathy for Armenia is rooted in them having had a really shit time of it, located on a crossroads surrounded by Turks and continually being subjugated to the ethnic violence that has contributed to the creation of the current situation of islands of national minorities. They got fucked by great power politics and empire building.
Of course since then they’ve not been innocent in their relations with Azeris. This kind of ethnic violence doesn’t have good sides or bad sides, just generations of grievances built on atrocities. It’s easy enough to find videos of bound men being lined up next to a trench and gunned down from the conflict.
People kinda expect Russia to have Armenia’s back though because someone should and it’s always previously been them. The west is hamstrung by Turkey in the region and Turkey follows its own agenda as we’ve seen with Kurds and Syria. In theory at least they had Russia to advocate for them, until they didn’t. If you’re going to declare an area your sphere of influence then when the time comes to prevent genocide I want to see that influence in action. It can’t be simultaneously a Russian sphere of influence and nothing to do with them.
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United States44449 Posts
Armenian government is pro finding someone powerful to advocate for it. They’re not pro US or pro Russia or pro China, they’re pro Armenian and have justifiably lost confidence in their old protector.
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On September 21 2023 03:20 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2023 02:57 Gorsameth wrote:On September 21 2023 02:42 Ardias wrote:On September 20 2023 22:16 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Well... yesterday Azerbaijan invaded Armenian backed Nagorno Karabakh militia etc. with 1500 Russian "peace keepers" in the area. they have surrendered... Russia started they wanted a diplomatic solution since Armenia stated they can no longer depend on Russia. Now this. If the CTSO was on life support after last year, it is dead now. https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1704426705761284183 I thought that Western community should cheer for a restored territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and getting rid of illegal Armenian occupation? On a serious note, never understood the point that Russia should have somehow intervened to defend Karabakh, when Armenia itself doesn't care to do so, never recognizing Karabakh as independent state, and Pashinyan himself stating that Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan. As for CSTO - yeah, Armenia under current government will never be an ally to Russia. If current course of events continues for some years, I would not exclude Iran as the member of CSTO in a few years (Shoigu is about to visit Tehran soon actually, I guess for the equipment talks). You can't run a defensive treaty organisation on the basis that your only there to help the others if you feel like it. What use does Iran have in joining the CSTO when they know now that Russia will absolutely not have their backs if push comes to shove? As for Armenia not caring. Is that why they called upon the CSTO back in 2022? Because they don't care about the conflict with Azerbaijan? And then Russia said no and the CSTO died right then and there. They called because there was a firefight in the Armenian-Azerbaijan border. However it has nothing to do with Karabakh and what {CC}StealthBlue had posted above. Iran has use is that Russia and Iran have a common adversary in form of Western powers, mainly US. Armenian government is firmly pro-US, so it figures that Russia wouldn't be eager to support them, especially considering that all their resources are tied in Ukraine. Also other CSTO members refused to partake as well. I don't see shit being thrown at Kazakhstan though.
Because Kazakhstan doesn't aspire to be a regional power, let alone a superpower. As a result of Putin's failed adventure in Ukraine, Russia stopped being even a regional power.
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On September 21 2023 02:42 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2023 22:16 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Well... yesterday Azerbaijan invaded Armenian backed Nagorno Karabakh militia etc. with 1500 Russian "peace keepers" in the area. they have surrendered... Russia started they wanted a diplomatic solution since Armenia stated they can no longer depend on Russia. Now this. If the CTSO was on life support after last year, it is dead now. https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1704426705761284183 I thought that Western community should cheer for a restored territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and getting rid of illegal Armenian occupation? On a serious note, never understood the point that Russia should have somehow intervened to defend Karabakh, when Armenia itself doesn't care to do so, never recognizing Karabakh as independent state, and Pashinyan himself stating that Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan. As for CSTO - yeah, Armenia under current government will never be an ally to Russia. If current course of events continues for some years, I would not exclude Iran as the member of CSTO in a few years (Shoigu is about to visit Tehran soon actually, I guess for the equipment talks).
Most people in the West never cheer for any war. Most people think Irak and Afghanistan were mistakes. (This still leaves a large % that want wars.) I think that if the West got to pick all wars would stop at current borders and people start trading and getting along. Genocides stopping and people hugging and sharing some nice food and drinks together.
Since the second half is unrealistic trying to steer the wars towards fewer future conflicts in total (with a low death toll as balancing factor) and higher global stability is what most would take as second best. I don't understand the Armenian conflict well enough to know how to achieve that. The current Russian regime keeps starting wars, so a long term stability stance requires changing that mindset or neutering their capability.
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Lo and behold, reality seems to be setting in for Poland:
Poland stops supplying weapons to Ukraine – PM
One of Kiev’s strongest backers has scaled back support amid an ongoing trade dispute
https://www.rt.com/news/583320-poland-stops-weapons-ukraine/
But I also want to contrast this update with this:
Is Poland the next pawn of the globalists?
Expanding on research already done by TheGrayzoneNews, InfraHaz offers a historical perspective as to why this country in the crossroads of East and West is primed to wage war against Russia, China, and communism as a whole.
https://twitter.com/19hassan49/status/1702122118735917465?s=20
So, in summary, while Putin holds out hope that new governments emerge in the EU, that will do real diplomacy, in the aftermath of their backfired sanctions regime, support for the proxy war dries up from the West, but the Elites seem to be moving their next pieces in place via Poland, not unlike how Nazi Germany was utilized nearly 100 years ago against Russia.
User was temp banned for this post.
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On September 21 2023 14:07 captainwaffles wrote:
Lo and behold, reality seems to be setting in for Poland:
Poland stops supplying weapons to Ukraine – PM
One of Kiev’s strongest backers has scaled back support amid an ongoing trade dispute
He said 'stopped' - as in it was done earlier, supposedly to start rearming Poland.
The 'trade dispute' is not connected, mostly a result of upcoming elections.
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On September 21 2023 15:03 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2023 14:07 captainwaffles wrote:
Lo and behold, reality seems to be setting in for Poland:
Poland stops supplying weapons to Ukraine – PM
One of Kiev’s strongest backers has scaled back support amid an ongoing trade dispute
He said 'stopped' - as in it was done earlier, supposedly to start rearming Poland. The 'trade dispute' is not connected, mostly a result of upcoming elections.
I don't think it's unconnected at all. It looks like it's an escalation of the dispute. I do agree it's probably all a dog and pony show for the elections, when PiS is highly dependent on its rural voters: they need to show the farmers they're supporting them. After the elections things might get patched up or might not. Poland falling out with Ukraine is obviously very bad news for Ukraine.
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On September 21 2023 14:07 captainwaffles wrote:Lo and behold, reality seems to be setting in for Poland: Poland stops supplying weapons to Ukraine – PM One of Kiev’s strongest backers has scaled back support amid an ongoing trade dispute https://www.rt.com/news/583320-poland-stops-weapons-ukraine/But I also want to contrast this update with this: Is Poland the next pawn of the globalists? Expanding on research already done by TheGrayzoneNews, InfraHaz offers a historical perspective as to why this country in the crossroads of East and West is primed to wage war against Russia, China, and communism as a whole. https://twitter.com/19hassan49/status/1702122118735917465?s=20So, in summary, while Putin holds out hope that new governments emerge in the EU, that will do real diplomacy, in the aftermath of their backfired sanctions regime, support for the proxy war dries up from the West, but the Elites seem to be moving their next pieces in place via Poland, not unlike how Nazi Germany was utilized nearly 100 years ago against Russia.
Dude honestly you should consider seeing a therapist. All of your sources are garbage and your geopolitical takes are rooted in either contrarianism or straight up mental illness :D
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Well in regards to grain dispute You need to note:
-Slovakia and Hungary are also blocking Ukrainian grain
-Romania although is sending diffrent vibes diplomatically also blocked for 30 days pending agreement (which may or may not materialize)
-Bulgaria is blocking sunflower seeds
So it is not like only Poland is concerned about its farming sector. All countries bordering Ukraine are, and rightfull so becuse our producers need to comply with EU regulations and Ukranian dont. Also their production structure is vastly different. We have a lot of small farmers while Ukraine have several gigantic agro-holdings mostly owned by Oligarchs or western corporations.
Add to that, that we have incomming elections, high inflation, rising food prices and You have some very volatile polticial environment. On top of that poles do hate being strongarmed into someting, PiS or otherwise. Ukraine wont get anywhere threatening our government and Russian propaganda will make sure that every retarded or confrontional thing they say gets amplified thousand times.
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I don't think the grain dispute will be solved right after Polish elections. Other eastern countries are also blocking the import of Ukrainian grain, so it's not a topic made up just for the needs of our elections.
It's a real problem and I can't see it solved without the EU allowing the affected states to pay extra subsidies to their farmers as compensation for the flood of cheap Ukrainian grain. Perhaps we need the EU to partially fund such subsidies too.
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On September 21 2023 16:01 Silvanel wrote:
Well in regards to grain dispute You need to note:
-Slovakia and Hungary are also blocking Ukrainian grain
-Romania although is sending diffrent vibes diplomatically also blocked for 30 days pending agreement (which may or may not materialize)
-Bulgaria is blocking sunflower seeds
So it is not like only Poland is concerned about its farming sector. All countries bordering Ukraine are, and rightfull so becuse our producers need to comply with EU regulations and Ukranian dont. Also their production structure is vastly different. We have a lot of small farmers while Ukraine have several gigantic agro-holdings mostly owned by Oligarchs or western corporations.
Add to that, that we have incomming elections, high inflation, rising food prices and You have some very volatile polticial environment. On top of that poles do hate being strongarmed into someting, PiS or otherwise. Ukraine wont get anywhere threatening our government and Russian propaganda will make sure that every retarded or confrontional thing they say gets amplified thousand times.
Well, I wasn't talking purely about the grain block. That seems like a fairly small matter and it could have been solved through fairly quiet diplomacy. It got escalated to a full-blown diplomatic fall-out. Whether it was Ukraine overplaying their hand or PiS brinkmanship for the upcoming elections, it's clearly not just about the grain any longer, and that seems like unequivocally bad news for Ukraine. Not only because Poland was an important supplier, but also because Poland was a vocal supporter of Ukraine in internal NATO and EU meetings. It really seems like the first major diplomatic misstep by Ukraine since the war began.
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I vote kick for waffles. There is no value in discussing anything with someone that posts this kind of garbage. It's not entertaining anymore either.
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@Acrofales
Second. The first was Zelnsky's "demand" for NATO to take Ukraine in ahead of Vilinus conference. Also You might recall Ben Wallace lecturing him on language surrounding arms supplies and recent insistance by US congress that before any talks about further aid Ukraines needs to provide detailed acounting of previous packages.
The honey moon is over. Was over for quite some time and Ukraine missed it I would say.
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Poland might have been one of the louder supporters of Ukraine but in reality it's not particularly influential diplomatically in NATO and especially in the EU. I don't think a lot is going to change for Ukraine. Polish material help was very important during the first year of the war but now that we've almost run out of the post Soviet equipment to give out there isn't much we can do or don't do for Ukraine, other than helping the old West to move their gifts through our territory.
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Zurich15366 Posts
There were many missteps.
Ukrainian diplomacy with Germany was pretty terrible for the first half of 2022. It got much better once ambassador Melnyk was recalled, but he wasn't the only reason and not the only cause of diplomatic missteps last year. The snubbing of the German president very early on was a big blunder and showed very poor understanding of Germany politically.
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The problem is less of a single misstep but a stubborn refusal to learn, they had received signals from Poland about it. Poking the Polish electoral beehive was always going to back-fire.
If they waited just one month a back-room deal could have been arranged, but now that 'embargo' is an election promise and a EU matter, it might just stay up for years.
As Sent has said - Poland is not important anymore, but I really hope Ukraine has more sense when dealing with Germany and US.
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People and news are misspresenting what Morawiecki said. Even in title of this BBC article: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66873495 (the contents of the article is better at least).
He didnt say "we are now stopping sending military aid to Ukraine (as in making a decision now), he stated a fact "we are currently not sending military aid to Ukraine (becuase we have nothing more to send)".
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This was kinda inevitable, I think.
The massive shock of the western public from the conlfict is largely over by now, it's a new "normal".
It's a terrible "normal" to have but it is what it is.
And it's almost a given that after some time many start to focus on themselves again, particularily their financial situation, especially long term.
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EPT
