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United States43665 Posts
On November 10 2024 02:48 Acrofales wrote:
I am also confused how this stops the war. Hamas is already about as eradicated as they can reasonably be. The hostage return isn't because Hamas is being difficult. It's because Netanyahu doesn't give a shit about them. I'd go so far as to say that if Hamas offered their unconditional surrender and the return of all the hostages tomorrow, Netanyahu would say no. He doesn't want to stop the war. He doesn't want to pull the IDF out of Gaza and he doesn't want to stop hostilities with Hezbollah. He knows that the minute that would happen is the minute his political career is over, and with that the legal troubles return.
He has jumped into bed with the far right who also don't want the war to end, because they want to colonize Gaza in the same way they're colonizing the West Bank. The only way Trump might get shit done is by threatening his buddy Netanyahu with ceasing all support. And Trump is definitely not doing that, despite his isolationist approach to foreign policy.
Theoretically Hamas needs to either be neutered or destroyed. The Palestinians themselves are the ones with the most power to do this. They're the ones who put Hamas in power, though I won't pretend that Hamas have been anything but a brutal dictatorship since then. But Hamas are outnumbered a thousand to one by regular Palestinians who would prefer it if Hamas didn't choose their kids for martyrdom. Iran has the second most power to neuter Hamas. Qatar probably third most. Israel probably fourth.
But it's generally quite hard for a bombarded population to overthrow a well armed dictatorship that has been in power for a while. By 1945 I suspect the average German wasn't thrilled with Hitler's foreign policy but they didn't march on the streets of Berlin and storm the Fuhrerbunker, instead they let him choose mass death and rape at the hands of the Red Army on their behalf.
As always the only conclusion is that Gaza is completely fucked.
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Historians describe the safest modus operandi for a german at the western front in 1945 as follows:
"When asked to fight, pretend to be at war".
Allied-Leaders have been confused of why the by then at large de-mechanized retreating Nazi forces won't surrender, since their chances of even holding territories were next to none.
But the hard truth is, that the nazi leadership had nothing to gain from ending the war. They might get killed as long as it's going on.. they totally will face trials and most of them death penalty once it would stop.
What little of extra treatment was possible - nazi brass enjoyed it till the last day - while they supposed to conscript kids born up to 1936.
Even German soldiers who got seperated from their groups, were often shot by german soldiers. Not because they though them to be enemies, but the penalty for being AWOL was death, and a guy at fighting age, running arounnd alone, must be AWOL.
So best bet, stay with your group, if you want to surrender to e.g. americans, make sure that you can't be shot in the back.
While in the west, soldiers hoped to be treated well on surrender, on the eastern front, the soldiers actually feared the soviet revenge sometimes more than their own officers.
(having soviet tanks advancing on your position.. with meatshields to counteract Panzerfaust doesn't really give you the impression that a human life is worth much to russians)
Absurdity ended when Hitler took the cheap way out and Generals found their balls to surrender.
Hamas should surrender, Gaza and Westbank will be annexed anyway, and the only thing arab population in Israel is to be preserved would simply be to be assimilated into the israeli society.
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United States43665 Posts
0% chance Gaza will be annexed. Nobody wants to rule it, the people are ungovernable and the problems thankless.
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Northern Ireland26339 Posts
Going back to the Amsterdam incidents, as I said at the time, events on the ground don’t fully match some of the initial narratives.
A lot of outright mislabelled, or contextually misrepresented videos and what have you, from both sides of the divide, things are becoming clearer as journalists pick through it and connect pieces.
It seems the read some of us guessed which was part regular hooliganism, part political tension and provocation, with some part anti-Semitism (and indeed anti-Arab/Muslim sentiment) is more on the money.
Those politicians immediately jumping to frame it as some kind of pre-planned anti-Semitic pogrom appear to be wrong. I’m not sure some Israeli politicians weren’t aware or indeed cared about this mind. Of European leaders who weighed in, I think some knew this, but wanted to appeal to pro-Israel folks, or anti-Muslim sentiment. I think the rest were more earnestly just wrong and commented before finding out the realities of the scenario fully emerged.
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Outright killing all Palestinians won't go over well, but trump giving his signoff on annexing the west bank and shaving off parts of gaza is probably in the cards now with the election. I don't know why this was the position supporters of Palestinians in america worked for but here we are.
Lets not make anyone the good guys in the Amsterdam violence. Both sides are horrid people that were then coopted by worse people to take advantage of the moment. For every St pauli you've got Lazio, Azov started as a militia formed from a supporters group, which fights ostensibly on the same side as the hood hood klan whom they fought against in hooliganism. If the greater arab-Isreali war kicks off those supporters who traveled will be on the front lines.
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Northern Ireland26339 Posts
On November 13 2024 10:11 Sermokala wrote:
Outright killing all Palestinians won't go over well, but trump giving his signoff on annexing the west bank and shaving off parts of gaza is probably in the cards now with the election. I don't know why this was the position supporters of Palestinians in america worked for but here we are.
Lets not make anyone the good guys in the Amsterdam violence. Both sides are horrid people that were then coopted by worse people to take advantage of the moment. For every St pauli you've got Lazio, Azov started as a militia formed from a supporters group, which fights ostensibly on the same side as the hood hood klan whom they fought against in hooliganism. If the greater arab-Isreali war kicks off those supporters who traveled will be on the front lines.
I would echo that sentiment
It’s possible to decry the violence without attributing it to anti-Semitism alone. Or denying it’s a factor at all
I’m personally sick of hearing anti-Semitism trotted out for everything, even though I do personally observe and believe it’s on the rise. So fuck knows what people who don’t share my sensibilities and observations think.
It does nothing but give ammunition to Anti-Semites and fuel their recruitment hook
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I'd like to know the specifics of what steps have been taken tbh.
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On November 13 2024 05:02 WombaT wrote:
Going back to the Amsterdam incidents, as I said at the time, events on the ground don’t fully match some of the initial narratives.
A lot of outright mislabelled, or contextually misrepresented videos and what have you, from both sides of the divide, things are becoming clearer as journalists pick through it and connect pieces.
It seems the read some of us guessed which was part regular hooliganism, part political tension and provocation, with some part anti-Semitism (and indeed anti-Arab/Muslim sentiment) is more on the money.
Those politicians immediately jumping to frame it as some kind of pre-planned anti-Semitic pogrom appear to be wrong. I’m not sure some Israeli politicians weren’t aware or indeed cared about this mind. Of European leaders who weighed in, I think some knew this, but wanted to appeal to pro-Israel folks, or anti-Muslim sentiment. I think the rest were more earnestly just wrong and commented before finding out the realities of the scenario fully emerged.
There were two groups here:
Male football fans actively seeking fights
Bored, poor, adolescents from a muslim migrant community seeking fights.
Framing this as a "jewish racist violence mob" or a "planned muslim attack on harmless visitors" both falls short.
But it was so juicy for politicians and religious and NGO representatives to stare teary eyed into thirsty cameras, that they couldn't walk past the chance, and media wouldn't miss it.
You can still correct yourself a week after... lol.. it got clickes and spewed hate, this will get engagement on follow up articles!
Growing muslim traditionalism in europe includes anti-semitism - a topic met with ignorance by the political left, and with general accusations to ALL muslims by the right.
Neither approach allows to fix the issue, but you'll be screamed down form both sides if you try to find a middle way.
Consequences of nobody being truthful: Players of a jewish football club in berlin got attacked by ...bored, poor, adolescents from the big migrant community - because the spark of hate jumped from amsterdam to berlin within seconds on social media.
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On November 13 2024 04:42 KwarK wrote:
0% chance Gaza will be annexed. Nobody wants to rule it, the people are ungovernable and the problems thankless.
That's not what the israeli far right is saying while Netanyahu remains ambiguous on this subject, after more than a year or constant slaughters, there are no official plans for after. Considering what occured so far, it will happen, and governing over a bunch of corpses is fine.
Meanwhile, the us seems content with the effect of their ultimatum on the israelis : they wanted around 350 aid trucks per day and tsahal has announced the opening of a new checkpoint for gaza's aid.
However tsahal communicates there is currently 70 trucks per day with the usual excuse of "hamas is stealing the food so let's make everybody die".
So according to their own account they are very far from the objective and it is unlikely the opening of one new checkpoint will change that.
It is even more unlikely if you take into account the number stated by louise wateridge who is working for unwar : for october, they have been only 37 trucks per day.
The account of palestinians talking about inflation are another set of evidence, 2 weeks ago, a tomato was valued 10 shekel which is around 2.5 euros/dollars.
A tomato is obviously a luxury good considering most of the food available is most likely canned but it gives a scale of the disaster considering it was already a very impoverished zone.
Al in all, people who pretend the democrat administration acts as a deterrence toward israel are either ignorant or in bad faith.
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Northern Ireland26339 Posts
On November 13 2024 18:51 KT_Elwood wrote:Show nested quote +On November 13 2024 05:02 WombaT wrote:
Going back to the Amsterdam incidents, as I said at the time, events on the ground don’t fully match some of the initial narratives.
A lot of outright mislabelled, or contextually misrepresented videos and what have you, from both sides of the divide, things are becoming clearer as journalists pick through it and connect pieces.
It seems the read some of us guessed which was part regular hooliganism, part political tension and provocation, with some part anti-Semitism (and indeed anti-Arab/Muslim sentiment) is more on the money.
Those politicians immediately jumping to frame it as some kind of pre-planned anti-Semitic pogrom appear to be wrong. I’m not sure some Israeli politicians weren’t aware or indeed cared about this mind. Of European leaders who weighed in, I think some knew this, but wanted to appeal to pro-Israel folks, or anti-Muslim sentiment. I think the rest were more earnestly just wrong and commented before finding out the realities of the scenario fully emerged.
There were two groups here: Male football fans actively seeking fights Bored, poor, adolescents from a muslim migrant community seeking fights. Framing this as a "jewish racist violence mob" or a "planned muslim attack on harmless visitors" both falls short. But it was so juicy for politicians and religious and NGO representatives to stare teary eyed into thirsty cameras, that they couldn't walk past the chance, and media wouldn't miss it. You can still correct yourself a week after... lol.. it got clickes and spewed hate, this will get engagement on follow up articles! Growing muslim traditionalism in europe includes anti-semitism - a topic met with ignorance by the political left, and with general accusations to ALL muslims by the right. Neither approach allows to fix the issue, but you'll be screamed down form both sides if you try to find a middle way. Consequences of nobody being truthful: Players of a jewish football club in berlin got attacked by ...bored, poor, adolescents from the big migrant community - because the spark of hate jumped from amsterdam to berlin within seconds on social media.
Aye I think you make some pretty bang-on points.
It can make it a frustrating topic if one is interested in nuance. Indeed not even nuance as much as assessing actual reality.
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Shitting on Harris about a situation she can't change really didn't work out for the "palis".
Mike Huckabee will be special envoy to middle east.. and says stuff like:
“There are certain words I refuse to use. There is no such thing as a West Bank. It’s Judea and Samaria. There’s no such thing as a settlement. They’re communities, they’re neighbourhoods, they’re cities. There’s no such thing as an occupation,”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/12/trump-picks-pro-settlement-mike-huckabee-as-us-ambassador-to-israel
Things are looking absolutely golden for Netanyahu right now.
He may go down in history as the guy who completed Zionism at 100%.
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On November 13 2024 23:50 KT_Elwood wrote:
He may go down in history as the guy who completed Zionism at 100%.
There is no 100%, you can always take more land
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Is there like a satellite map of Israel in the Bible that is telling the evangelicals how much Land is needed for the 2nd coming of jesus?
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Northern Ireland26339 Posts
On November 14 2024 02:05 KT_Elwood wrote:
Is there like a satellite map of Israel in the Bible that is telling the evangelicals how much Land is needed for the 2nd coming of jesus?
If I was to hazard a guess a way quicker way to elicit the second coming would be not being collective cunts and vaguely following the spirit of Jesus’ teachings.
I mean, I’m not Jesus but if I was, I’d be fine hanging out in the celestial plane a while longer versus jumping back into our world
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On November 13 2024 04:42 KwarK wrote:
0% chance Gaza will be annexed. Nobody wants to rule it, the people are ungovernable and the problems thankless.
Take this with a grain of salt, but I like to discuss this issue with my online friends who live in the middle east because they have very close ties to the conflict and offer a unique perspective.
In all of our previous conversations, they always rejected any mention of their governments intervening to provide emergency relocation/evacuation. They always said death is acceptable, its important for Israel to be completely exterminated, many empires have fallen. All the usual stuff. Ever since Trump's election victory and the subsequent appointments being made, it has become extremely clear no one in the government would be against entirely wiping out Palestinians.
In our most recent conversation, they agreed the situation looks quite grim and they believe its possible Israel will actually kill every single Palestinian in Gaza and west bank. They don't think the possibility alone is enough, and they still want Palestinians to fight as hard as they can until all hope is lost. But they do want their governments to try to relocate Palestinians if it becomes clear Israel has no restraints anymore and the US will cover for them to actually kill everyone.
I do think its possible Israel will have some shock and awe attack to show their neighbors they are serious about ending the conflict and they would say "come pick them up before its too late". At which point, I do think there would be major support for some kinda "get to the choppa!!" moment organized by Muslim nations
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United States43665 Posts
On November 14 2024 02:17 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 13 2024 04:42 KwarK wrote:
0% chance Gaza will be annexed. Nobody wants to rule it, the people are ungovernable and the problems thankless. Take this with a grain of salt, but I like to discuss this issue with my online friends who live in the middle east because they have very close ties to the conflict and offer a unique perspective. In all of our previous conversations, they always rejected any mention of their governments intervening to provide emergency relocation/evacuation. They always said death is acceptable, its important for Israel to be completely exterminated, many empires have fallen. All the usual stuff. Ever since Trump's election victory and the subsequent appointments being made, it has become extremely clear no one in the government would be against entirely wiping out Palestinians. In our most recent conversation, they agreed the situation looks quite grim and they believe its possible Israel will actually kill every single Palestinian in Gaza and west bank. They don't think the possibility alone is enough, and they still want Palestinians to fight as hard as they can until all hope is lost. But they do want their governments to try to relocate Palestinians if it becomes clear Israel has no restraints anymore and the US will cover for them to actually kill everyone.
The safest Palestinian Arabs in the region are the ones living in Israel with Israeli citizenship. The biggest threat to them is Hamas etc.
The land in the West Bank and Gaza isn't all that valuable. Israel already gave up Gaza a few times and tried to get Egypt to take it but Egypt came to the same conclusion as everyone else, that's its not worth having.
I think the idea that nobody would be against rounding two million Palestinians up and gassing them etc. is absurd and if you genuinely believe that then you should get tested for Oblade's brainworms. It's simply not going to happen. Israel and Gaza's government, Hamas, are at war because Hamas declared war on Israel then committed a shitload of war crimes. That's all this is.
It's not good but nobody is getting exterminated.
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On November 14 2024 02:26 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2024 02:17 Mohdoo wrote:On November 13 2024 04:42 KwarK wrote:
0% chance Gaza will be annexed. Nobody wants to rule it, the people are ungovernable and the problems thankless. Take this with a grain of salt, but I like to discuss this issue with my online friends who live in the middle east because they have very close ties to the conflict and offer a unique perspective. In all of our previous conversations, they always rejected any mention of their governments intervening to provide emergency relocation/evacuation. They always said death is acceptable, its important for Israel to be completely exterminated, many empires have fallen. All the usual stuff. Ever since Trump's election victory and the subsequent appointments being made, it has become extremely clear no one in the government would be against entirely wiping out Palestinians. In our most recent conversation, they agreed the situation looks quite grim and they believe its possible Israel will actually kill every single Palestinian in Gaza and west bank. They don't think the possibility alone is enough, and they still want Palestinians to fight as hard as they can until all hope is lost. But they do want their governments to try to relocate Palestinians if it becomes clear Israel has no restraints anymore and the US will cover for them to actually kill everyone. The safest Palestinian Arabs in the region are the ones living in Israel with Israeli citizenship. The biggest threat to them is Hamas etc. The land in the West Bank and Gaza isn't all that valuable. Israel already gave up Gaza a few times and tried to get Egypt to take it but Egypt came to the same conclusion as everyone else, that's its not worth having. I think the idea that nobody would be against rounding two million Palestinians up and gassing them etc. is absurd and if you genuinely believe that then you should get tested for Oblade's brainworms. It's simply not going to happen. Israel and Gaza's government, Hamas, are at war because Hamas declared war on Israel then committed a shitload of war crimes. That's all this is. It's not good but nobody is getting exterminated.
Who in Trump's cabinet do you think would say "wait, we shouldn't do that"? And you could argue they wouldn't need to actually go through with it. If they provided Israel with the bombs needed to do some grotesque show of force where they killed like 200K people in a single night, that would be all the proof they need they are serious about moving on from this conflict and relocating Palestinians.
Trump is purging "woke" generals. So no back talk from them. How about his cabinet? Trump himself? I don't think people should assume this isn't possible. We have already seen these folks mean what they say.
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I don't see directly annexing or exterminating Gaza as happening but I can very much see a West bank situation happening where settlements keep taking more and more land while Palestinians are driven into an ever smaller corner.
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When you guys say you can't see it happening, who in the decision making chain are you saying will say "no"? Who do you imagine as opposing this? I understand the reflex to assume that. I would assume that in any other situation.
1: Trump will replace all the generals who don't agree with him
2: His entire cabinet would love to see Palestinians wiped out
So where does that leave us? What stops this?
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EPT
