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2020 US Election - Page 207

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Broetchenholer
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany1964 Posts
November 06 2020 08:53 GMT
#4121
On November 06 2020 07:21 Wegandi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 07:07 Slydie wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:00 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:50 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:46 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:39 Shinokuki wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:33 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:29 ChristianS wrote:
IIRC Republicans currently have like a ~+8 advantage in the Senate relative to the popular vote (that is, if they lost every election by 8 points in the popular vote, they’d keep 50 senators on average). Adding PR and DC would bring that to ~+4. “That would give Dems too much advantage” is a pretty weak argument against, and basically every argument against using the popular vote (e.g. ensuring less populous groups’ interests are still represented) would cut in favor of representing the people of DC and PR, too. Of course, the reason it doesn’t happen is because Republicans have a lot of power, and appear not to have a single principle they prioritize more highly than obtaining more power.

Designing the whole system around incentivizing politicians to do whatever it takes to win elections has really negative consequences in situations where those same politicians get to make decisions about the electoral machinery. It’s not obvious how to solve that problem democratically, but gerrymandering, voter suppression, and Electoral College stuff are all victims of that problem (and all seem to be getting worse as time goes on). A few years ago people were optimistic about a judicial branch solution to the gerrymandering issue, but I assume everyone’s given up on that.


The political unit and polity of this country is not based on individual persons. Its based off the 50 states. It has been since our inception (which preceded both parties). Using the popular vote is meaningless when talking about the power dynamics of our institutions (do you care about those now or do you want to alter and abolish still?).


Just like amy coney barrett and any other slimy GOP trying to reason why HURR DURR should be like this. No country is adopting this archaic voting system based on some 1800 slave owner


Read the Federalist Papers and the ratifying conventions and understand the Articles of Confederation. Youre just displaying your ignorance to the world.

You realize that the Federalist Papers are not the last word for interpreting the creation of this nation right? Jesus conservatives cling onto that shit as much as the bible.


Those documents and debates are central to the formation and nature of our Government and its institutions. If you want to understand the how and why of them you must know that history and those documents. You need to read Madison and Hamilton and the Anti-Federalists and understand the precursor Articles of Confederation. Just saying huuur durrr slave owner is peak stupidity. Id also add itd be a good idea to read Locke and Montisqeue but whatever.


Or you can move the attention to the present and see how every other western country has a vastly superior election system. USA is just not a modern nation anymore, and is losing ground on so many fronts. Being stuck in the past will not help you out of the misery.

I said last time that electing Trump was abandoning the position as a superpower, and it might be lost forever.


You realize most nations have modeled their country and institutions off the US right? Having bicameral legislature, judicial branch with SC, checks and balances and a constitution, etc. When the US ratified the Constitution there were almost no similarly styled countries in the world (the Iroquous nation were probably the closest in practice). You can thank the US for how Germany was set up post unification.


Do you even understand the words you are writing down? If the constitution and the bill of rights were the stroke of genius, the divine document you make them out to be, why have this countries inspired by the US not taken them over and adopted American politics exactly like that. You want to talk Germany? No president with executive power, no winner takes all, no senate that gives states disproportionate power, no states that don't get representation, no voting process that allows Billions of dollars to be spent, no right to be armed, no disenfranchisement of women. No electoral college! Apparently, American scholars did not think their political system was worth copying for Germany. And none of the democracies that started later and are still around thought differently.
gTank
Profile Joined January 2011
Austria2664 Posts
November 06 2020 08:58 GMT
#4122
On November 06 2020 17:53 Broetchenholer wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 07:21 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:07 Slydie wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:00 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:50 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:46 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:39 Shinokuki wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:33 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:29 ChristianS wrote:
IIRC Republicans currently have like a ~+8 advantage in the Senate relative to the popular vote (that is, if they lost every election by 8 points in the popular vote, they’d keep 50 senators on average). Adding PR and DC would bring that to ~+4. “That would give Dems too much advantage” is a pretty weak argument against, and basically every argument against using the popular vote (e.g. ensuring less populous groups’ interests are still represented) would cut in favor of representing the people of DC and PR, too. Of course, the reason it doesn’t happen is because Republicans have a lot of power, and appear not to have a single principle they prioritize more highly than obtaining more power.

Designing the whole system around incentivizing politicians to do whatever it takes to win elections has really negative consequences in situations where those same politicians get to make decisions about the electoral machinery. It’s not obvious how to solve that problem democratically, but gerrymandering, voter suppression, and Electoral College stuff are all victims of that problem (and all seem to be getting worse as time goes on). A few years ago people were optimistic about a judicial branch solution to the gerrymandering issue, but I assume everyone’s given up on that.


The political unit and polity of this country is not based on individual persons. Its based off the 50 states. It has been since our inception (which preceded both parties). Using the popular vote is meaningless when talking about the power dynamics of our institutions (do you care about those now or do you want to alter and abolish still?).


Just like amy coney barrett and any other slimy GOP trying to reason why HURR DURR should be like this. No country is adopting this archaic voting system based on some 1800 slave owner


Read the Federalist Papers and the ratifying conventions and understand the Articles of Confederation. Youre just displaying your ignorance to the world.

You realize that the Federalist Papers are not the last word for interpreting the creation of this nation right? Jesus conservatives cling onto that shit as much as the bible.


Those documents and debates are central to the formation and nature of our Government and its institutions. If you want to understand the how and why of them you must know that history and those documents. You need to read Madison and Hamilton and the Anti-Federalists and understand the precursor Articles of Confederation. Just saying huuur durrr slave owner is peak stupidity. Id also add itd be a good idea to read Locke and Montisqeue but whatever.


Or you can move the attention to the present and see how every other western country has a vastly superior election system. USA is just not a modern nation anymore, and is losing ground on so many fronts. Being stuck in the past will not help you out of the misery.

I said last time that electing Trump was abandoning the position as a superpower, and it might be lost forever.


You realize most nations have modeled their country and institutions off the US right? Having bicameral legislature, judicial branch with SC, checks and balances and a constitution, etc. When the US ratified the Constitution there were almost no similarly styled countries in the world (the Iroquous nation were probably the closest in practice). You can thank the US for how Germany was set up post unification.


Do you even understand the words you are writing down? If the constitution and the bill of rights were the stroke of genius, the divine document you make them out to be, why have this countries inspired by the US not taken them over and adopted American politics exactly like that. You want to talk Germany? No president with executive power, no winner takes all, no senate that gives states disproportionate power, no states that don't get representation, no voting process that allows Billions of dollars to be spent, no right to be armed, no disenfranchisement of women. No electoral college! Apparently, American scholars did not think their political system was worth copying for Germany. And none of the democracies that started later and are still around thought differently.


There is no sense discussing with him about this as far as I have noticed in this thread. Next thing he might say that americans invented pizza and really believe that too.
One crossed wire, one wayward pinch of potassium chlorate, one errant twitch...and kablooie!
Dante08
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
Singapore4179 Posts
November 06 2020 09:03 GMT
#4123
So what happens now till 8 Jan? It's probably going to be the most awkward handover in history lol
ChristianS
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3304 Posts
November 06 2020 09:03 GMT
#4124
On November 06 2020 17:58 gTank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 17:53 Broetchenholer wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:21 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:07 Slydie wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:00 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:50 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:46 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:39 Shinokuki wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:33 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:29 ChristianS wrote:
IIRC Republicans currently have like a ~+8 advantage in the Senate relative to the popular vote (that is, if they lost every election by 8 points in the popular vote, they’d keep 50 senators on average). Adding PR and DC would bring that to ~+4. “That would give Dems too much advantage” is a pretty weak argument against, and basically every argument against using the popular vote (e.g. ensuring less populous groups’ interests are still represented) would cut in favor of representing the people of DC and PR, too. Of course, the reason it doesn’t happen is because Republicans have a lot of power, and appear not to have a single principle they prioritize more highly than obtaining more power.

Designing the whole system around incentivizing politicians to do whatever it takes to win elections has really negative consequences in situations where those same politicians get to make decisions about the electoral machinery. It’s not obvious how to solve that problem democratically, but gerrymandering, voter suppression, and Electoral College stuff are all victims of that problem (and all seem to be getting worse as time goes on). A few years ago people were optimistic about a judicial branch solution to the gerrymandering issue, but I assume everyone’s given up on that.


The political unit and polity of this country is not based on individual persons. Its based off the 50 states. It has been since our inception (which preceded both parties). Using the popular vote is meaningless when talking about the power dynamics of our institutions (do you care about those now or do you want to alter and abolish still?).


Just like amy coney barrett and any other slimy GOP trying to reason why HURR DURR should be like this. No country is adopting this archaic voting system based on some 1800 slave owner


Read the Federalist Papers and the ratifying conventions and understand the Articles of Confederation. Youre just displaying your ignorance to the world.

You realize that the Federalist Papers are not the last word for interpreting the creation of this nation right? Jesus conservatives cling onto that shit as much as the bible.


Those documents and debates are central to the formation and nature of our Government and its institutions. If you want to understand the how and why of them you must know that history and those documents. You need to read Madison and Hamilton and the Anti-Federalists and understand the precursor Articles of Confederation. Just saying huuur durrr slave owner is peak stupidity. Id also add itd be a good idea to read Locke and Montisqeue but whatever.


Or you can move the attention to the present and see how every other western country has a vastly superior election system. USA is just not a modern nation anymore, and is losing ground on so many fronts. Being stuck in the past will not help you out of the misery.

I said last time that electing Trump was abandoning the position as a superpower, and it might be lost forever.


You realize most nations have modeled their country and institutions off the US right? Having bicameral legislature, judicial branch with SC, checks and balances and a constitution, etc. When the US ratified the Constitution there were almost no similarly styled countries in the world (the Iroquous nation were probably the closest in practice). You can thank the US for how Germany was set up post unification.


Do you even understand the words you are writing down? If the constitution and the bill of rights were the stroke of genius, the divine document you make them out to be, why have this countries inspired by the US not taken them over and adopted American politics exactly like that. You want to talk Germany? No president with executive power, no winner takes all, no senate that gives states disproportionate power, no states that don't get representation, no voting process that allows Billions of dollars to be spent, no right to be armed, no disenfranchisement of women. No electoral college! Apparently, American scholars did not think their political system was worth copying for Germany. And none of the democracies that started later and are still around thought differently.


There is no sense discussing with him about this as far as I have noticed in this thread. Next thing he might say that americans invented pizza and really believe that too.

Also, y’know, temp banned.

Going to bed, sad to miss GA flipping over to Biden lead.
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." -Robert J. Hanlon
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9859 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-06 09:08:25
November 06 2020 09:04 GMT
#4125
On November 06 2020 17:44 pmh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 17:38 FiWiFaKi wrote:
On November 06 2020 17:27 pmh wrote:
Biden keeps rising (or lowering if you like) in the odds. 1/12 now,yesterday it was 1/9 when i went to sleep.
Seeing the lack of support for trump from the republican party i dont think any lawsuit has a chance to change the outcome.
What kwark said on the previous page,i think it definitely holds some merrits.



Yeah, it's been moving a lot of emotions rather than info. Whenever Nate or some other prominent figure tweets result is inevitable, Biden would go to like -1600 or -2000, but then when it got quiet like during the night odds would go back down to - 700 even though there was no new information. Honestly this is the first time I ever gambled on anything, but I thought it was a good one because people bet very emotionally since it's close to their heart... Versus a UFC fight or a football game, I think they view it a lot more rationally and it's hard to get any edge.



Congratz on your bets btw. When you where contemplating to double down yesterday i was about to advice against it from a risk management point of vieuw lol but i held of as it did seem a rather sure thing to me as well.
Personally i would still cash out at some point if the odds keep improving (not sure if possible and you have to take into account the fee as well) just to close the tail risk. But seeing the fees its probably beter to let it run till the end.


Thanks man, still reserved optimism though (probably falling a bit into a false sense of security by being in slightly left leaning communities). From what I know, you can't just sell your position, you have to buy an opposing one, but it's really unfavorable to do when the odds are really one sided because the bookie still takes their 5% or so cut, so you end up having odds of like -2000/+1000, so if you purchased when it was say -1000/+600... You need quite a bit shift in the odds just to break even (buy -1000 first, and then hedge with +1000). That and I'd have to use a LoC to get that hedge at this point, and didn't want to mess with the bank being worried and start calling me about it. But yeah, an option for tomorrow depending on whether the networks will be scared to call. The more time passes without it being called the more unpredictable shady stuff can happen.
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
CorsairHero
Profile Joined December 2008
Canada9491 Posts
November 06 2020 09:13 GMT
#4126
I went all in on my (small) account for the democrats winning the presidency at -135

feeling pretty good now
© Current year.
hns
Profile Joined January 2010
Germany609 Posts
November 06 2020 09:13 GMT
#4127
On November 06 2020 18:03 ChristianS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 17:58 gTank wrote:
On November 06 2020 17:53 Broetchenholer wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:21 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:07 Slydie wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:00 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:50 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:46 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:39 Shinokuki wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:33 Wegandi wrote:
[quote]

The political unit and polity of this country is not based on individual persons. Its based off the 50 states. It has been since our inception (which preceded both parties). Using the popular vote is meaningless when talking about the power dynamics of our institutions (do you care about those now or do you want to alter and abolish still?).


Just like amy coney barrett and any other slimy GOP trying to reason why HURR DURR should be like this. No country is adopting this archaic voting system based on some 1800 slave owner


Read the Federalist Papers and the ratifying conventions and understand the Articles of Confederation. Youre just displaying your ignorance to the world.

You realize that the Federalist Papers are not the last word for interpreting the creation of this nation right? Jesus conservatives cling onto that shit as much as the bible.


Those documents and debates are central to the formation and nature of our Government and its institutions. If you want to understand the how and why of them you must know that history and those documents. You need to read Madison and Hamilton and the Anti-Federalists and understand the precursor Articles of Confederation. Just saying huuur durrr slave owner is peak stupidity. Id also add itd be a good idea to read Locke and Montisqeue but whatever.


Or you can move the attention to the present and see how every other western country has a vastly superior election system. USA is just not a modern nation anymore, and is losing ground on so many fronts. Being stuck in the past will not help you out of the misery.

I said last time that electing Trump was abandoning the position as a superpower, and it might be lost forever.


You realize most nations have modeled their country and institutions off the US right? Having bicameral legislature, judicial branch with SC, checks and balances and a constitution, etc. When the US ratified the Constitution there were almost no similarly styled countries in the world (the Iroquous nation were probably the closest in practice). You can thank the US for how Germany was set up post unification.


Do you even understand the words you are writing down? If the constitution and the bill of rights were the stroke of genius, the divine document you make them out to be, why have this countries inspired by the US not taken them over and adopted American politics exactly like that. You want to talk Germany? No president with executive power, no winner takes all, no senate that gives states disproportionate power, no states that don't get representation, no voting process that allows Billions of dollars to be spent, no right to be armed, no disenfranchisement of women. No electoral college! Apparently, American scholars did not think their political system was worth copying for Germany. And none of the democracies that started later and are still around thought differently.


There is no sense discussing with him about this as far as I have noticed in this thread. Next thing he might say that americans invented pizza and really believe that too.

Also, y’know, temp banned.

Going to bed, sad to miss GA flipping over to Biden lead.


According to these tweets, this is going to be REALLY close. Extrapolating the results from their tweets from 18h ago to now, there would have to be roughly 1200 more votes to be counted to make Biden the winner. On the other hand, they already reported <1% remaining to be counted, but have actually counted MORE than 1% in the last 18h. So it could be over any time. Really tense.
ZerO, Action, Neo.G_Soulkey & FlaSh fanboy~~
IyMoon
Profile Joined April 2016
United States1249 Posts
November 06 2020 09:17 GMT
#4128
On November 06 2020 18:13 hns wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 18:03 ChristianS wrote:
On November 06 2020 17:58 gTank wrote:
On November 06 2020 17:53 Broetchenholer wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:21 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:07 Slydie wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:00 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:50 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:46 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:39 Shinokuki wrote:
[quote]

Just like amy coney barrett and any other slimy GOP trying to reason why HURR DURR should be like this. No country is adopting this archaic voting system based on some 1800 slave owner


Read the Federalist Papers and the ratifying conventions and understand the Articles of Confederation. Youre just displaying your ignorance to the world.

You realize that the Federalist Papers are not the last word for interpreting the creation of this nation right? Jesus conservatives cling onto that shit as much as the bible.


Those documents and debates are central to the formation and nature of our Government and its institutions. If you want to understand the how and why of them you must know that history and those documents. You need to read Madison and Hamilton and the Anti-Federalists and understand the precursor Articles of Confederation. Just saying huuur durrr slave owner is peak stupidity. Id also add itd be a good idea to read Locke and Montisqeue but whatever.


Or you can move the attention to the present and see how every other western country has a vastly superior election system. USA is just not a modern nation anymore, and is losing ground on so many fronts. Being stuck in the past will not help you out of the misery.

I said last time that electing Trump was abandoning the position as a superpower, and it might be lost forever.


You realize most nations have modeled their country and institutions off the US right? Having bicameral legislature, judicial branch with SC, checks and balances and a constitution, etc. When the US ratified the Constitution there were almost no similarly styled countries in the world (the Iroquous nation were probably the closest in practice). You can thank the US for how Germany was set up post unification.


Do you even understand the words you are writing down? If the constitution and the bill of rights were the stroke of genius, the divine document you make them out to be, why have this countries inspired by the US not taken them over and adopted American politics exactly like that. You want to talk Germany? No president with executive power, no winner takes all, no senate that gives states disproportionate power, no states that don't get representation, no voting process that allows Billions of dollars to be spent, no right to be armed, no disenfranchisement of women. No electoral college! Apparently, American scholars did not think their political system was worth copying for Germany. And none of the democracies that started later and are still around thought differently.


There is no sense discussing with him about this as far as I have noticed in this thread. Next thing he might say that americans invented pizza and really believe that too.

Also, y’know, temp banned.

Going to bed, sad to miss GA flipping over to Biden lead.


According to these tweets, this is going to be REALLY close. Extrapolating the results from their tweets from 18h ago to now, there would have to be roughly 1200 more votes to be counted to make Biden the winner. On the other hand, they already reported <1% remaining to be counted, but have actually counted MORE than 1% in the last 18h. So it could be over any time. Really tense.


From what officials in GA are saying, there are enough votes to put biden up maybe in the low thousands before military votes. It could flip back once those are in
Something witty
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24211 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-06 09:29:44
November 06 2020 09:28 GMT
#4129
Clayton county website update puts Biden ahead in Georgia by 917.

"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9859 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-06 09:33:48
November 06 2020 09:28 GMT
#4130
So GA flipped to +920 votes for Biden.

Is there any rough estimates of how many military votes would be expected in GA?

Anyway, I'm going to sleep, this is a really bad use of time lol. Take care guys Also nice one CorsairHero, -175 for me, when did you get in?
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
CorsairHero
Profile Joined December 2008
Canada9491 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-06 09:48:04
November 06 2020 09:42 GMT
#4131
On November 06 2020 18:28 FiWiFaKi wrote:
So GA flipped to +920 votes for Biden.

Is there any rough estimates of how many military votes would be expected in GA?

Anyway, I'm going to sleep, this is a really bad use of time lol. Take care guys Also nice one CorsairHero, -175 for me, when did you get in?

Second half of September. It was about -130 for Biden but I wanted that little bit of extra security so I went for the Democrats winning instead.

First half of September was even (both -115) IIRC. What a time it would have been to get in then.
© Current year.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18400 Posts
November 06 2020 09:53 GMT
#4132
On November 06 2020 18:42 CorsairHero wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 18:28 FiWiFaKi wrote:
So GA flipped to +920 votes for Biden.

Is there any rough estimates of how many military votes would be expected in GA?

Anyway, I'm going to sleep, this is a really bad use of time lol. Take care guys Also nice one CorsairHero, -175 for me, when did you get in?

Second half of September. It was about -130 for Biden but I wanted that little bit of extra security so I went for the Democrats winning instead.

First half of September was even (both -115) IIRC. What a time it would have been to get in then.

Wait... what would a Democrat presidential victory look like if it wasn't Biden?
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria873 Posts
November 06 2020 09:53 GMT
#4133
What's the chance the election could be recounted? Would that take one more week?
CorsairHero
Profile Joined December 2008
Canada9491 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-06 09:59:39
November 06 2020 09:55 GMT
#4134
On November 06 2020 18:53 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 18:42 CorsairHero wrote:
On November 06 2020 18:28 FiWiFaKi wrote:
So GA flipped to +920 votes for Biden.

Is there any rough estimates of how many military votes would be expected in GA?

Anyway, I'm going to sleep, this is a really bad use of time lol. Take care guys Also nice one CorsairHero, -175 for me, when did you get in?

Second half of September. It was about -130 for Biden but I wanted that little bit of extra security so I went for the Democrats winning instead.

First half of September was even (both -115) IIRC. What a time it would have been to get in then.

Wait... what would a Democrat presidential victory look like if it wasn't Biden?

It includes Biden (and/or Harris).
© Current year.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18400 Posts
November 06 2020 09:59 GMT
#4135
On November 06 2020 18:53 SC-Shield wrote:
What's the chance the election could be recounted? Would that take one more week?

Well, there is no single election. It's 50 separate mini-elections all held at once. A recount in Nevada will be different to a recount in Michigan, which will be different to a recount in Florida.

In general, yes, well over a week. On the other hand, almost all the states are well outside of the range where recounts could flip anything. Only Georgia and maybe Pennsylvania and Arizona look like they might end in that range.

What is most likely to impact vote counts aren't recounts, but court cases that disallow specific types of votes (e.g. the drive through voting booths in Texas). So far these have been thrown out, but there's plenty more of this type of case, and any one of them could disallow thousands of votes (in any given state, and maybe set a precedent that could be translated to other states). This type of litigation is going to take weeks, probably even months to sort out. If you look at Florida 2000, it took until wayyyy after Bush being sworn in to get everything sorted and a final votecount.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6305 Posts
November 06 2020 10:02 GMT
#4136
On November 06 2020 18:04 FiWiFaKi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 17:44 pmh wrote:
On November 06 2020 17:38 FiWiFaKi wrote:
On November 06 2020 17:27 pmh wrote:
Biden keeps rising (or lowering if you like) in the odds. 1/12 now,yesterday it was 1/9 when i went to sleep.
Seeing the lack of support for trump from the republican party i dont think any lawsuit has a chance to change the outcome.
What kwark said on the previous page,i think it definitely holds some merrits.



Yeah, it's been moving a lot of emotions rather than info. Whenever Nate or some other prominent figure tweets result is inevitable, Biden would go to like -1600 or -2000, but then when it got quiet like during the night odds would go back down to - 700 even though there was no new information. Honestly this is the first time I ever gambled on anything, but I thought it was a good one because people bet very emotionally since it's close to their heart... Versus a UFC fight or a football game, I think they view it a lot more rationally and it's hard to get any edge.



Congratz on your bets btw. When you where contemplating to double down yesterday i was about to advice against it from a risk management point of vieuw lol but i held of as it did seem a rather sure thing to me as well.
Personally i would still cash out at some point if the odds keep improving (not sure if possible and you have to take into account the fee as well) just to close the tail risk. But seeing the fees its probably beter to let it run till the end.


Thanks man, still reserved optimism though (probably falling a bit into a false sense of security by being in slightly left leaning communities). From what I know, you can't just sell your position, you have to buy an opposing one, but it's really unfavorable to do when the odds are really one sided because the bookie still takes their 5% or so cut, so you end up having odds of like -2000/+1000, so if you purchased when it was say -1000/+600... You need quite a bit shift in the odds just to break even (buy -1000 first, and then hedge with +1000). That and I'd have to use a LoC to get that hedge at this point, and didn't want to mess with the bank being worried and start calling me about it. But yeah, an option for tomorrow depending on whether the networks will be scared to call. The more time passes without it being called the more unpredictable shady stuff can happen.

I bought call options instead of betting. Was pretty sure markets would rise if Biden started winning. Easier to close your position as well. In this case I bet on the right horse and won.
CorsairHero
Profile Joined December 2008
Canada9491 Posts
November 06 2020 10:04 GMT
#4137
Perdue is now down to 49.8%
© Current year.
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
November 06 2020 10:05 GMT
#4138
On November 06 2020 18:53 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 18:42 CorsairHero wrote:
On November 06 2020 18:28 FiWiFaKi wrote:
So GA flipped to +920 votes for Biden.

Is there any rough estimates of how many military votes would be expected in GA?

Anyway, I'm going to sleep, this is a really bad use of time lol. Take care guys Also nice one CorsairHero, -175 for me, when did you get in?

Second half of September. It was about -130 for Biden but I wanted that little bit of extra security so I went for the Democrats winning instead.

First half of September was even (both -115) IIRC. What a time it would have been to get in then.

Wait... what would a Democrat presidential victory look like if it wasn't Biden?


It insures against health risks with Biden, be it the from of his age or 2A lovers *wink wink*.

I doubt the betting rates were that different. But when someone is a clear favorite, every sort of risk has some serious influence on those rates.
CorsairHero
Profile Joined December 2008
Canada9491 Posts
November 06 2020 10:16 GMT
#4139
I didn't want to have to explain it like that but yes, it was a very minor difference in odds so I went for it.
© Current year.
gTank
Profile Joined January 2011
Austria2664 Posts
November 06 2020 10:22 GMT
#4140
On November 06 2020 18:03 ChristianS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 17:58 gTank wrote:
On November 06 2020 17:53 Broetchenholer wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:21 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:07 Slydie wrote:
On November 06 2020 07:00 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:50 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:46 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:39 Shinokuki wrote:
On November 06 2020 06:33 Wegandi wrote:
[quote]

The political unit and polity of this country is not based on individual persons. Its based off the 50 states. It has been since our inception (which preceded both parties). Using the popular vote is meaningless when talking about the power dynamics of our institutions (do you care about those now or do you want to alter and abolish still?).


Just like amy coney barrett and any other slimy GOP trying to reason why HURR DURR should be like this. No country is adopting this archaic voting system based on some 1800 slave owner


Read the Federalist Papers and the ratifying conventions and understand the Articles of Confederation. Youre just displaying your ignorance to the world.

You realize that the Federalist Papers are not the last word for interpreting the creation of this nation right? Jesus conservatives cling onto that shit as much as the bible.


Those documents and debates are central to the formation and nature of our Government and its institutions. If you want to understand the how and why of them you must know that history and those documents. You need to read Madison and Hamilton and the Anti-Federalists and understand the precursor Articles of Confederation. Just saying huuur durrr slave owner is peak stupidity. Id also add itd be a good idea to read Locke and Montisqeue but whatever.


Or you can move the attention to the present and see how every other western country has a vastly superior election system. USA is just not a modern nation anymore, and is losing ground on so many fronts. Being stuck in the past will not help you out of the misery.

I said last time that electing Trump was abandoning the position as a superpower, and it might be lost forever.


You realize most nations have modeled their country and institutions off the US right? Having bicameral legislature, judicial branch with SC, checks and balances and a constitution, etc. When the US ratified the Constitution there were almost no similarly styled countries in the world (the Iroquous nation were probably the closest in practice). You can thank the US for how Germany was set up post unification.


Do you even understand the words you are writing down? If the constitution and the bill of rights were the stroke of genius, the divine document you make them out to be, why have this countries inspired by the US not taken them over and adopted American politics exactly like that. You want to talk Germany? No president with executive power, no winner takes all, no senate that gives states disproportionate power, no states that don't get representation, no voting process that allows Billions of dollars to be spent, no right to be armed, no disenfranchisement of women. No electoral college! Apparently, American scholars did not think their political system was worth copying for Germany. And none of the democracies that started later and are still around thought differently.


There is no sense discussing with him about this as far as I have noticed in this thread. Next thing he might say that americans invented pizza and really believe that too.

Also, y’know, temp banned.

Going to bed, sad to miss GA flipping over to Biden lead.


Oh, for what?
One crossed wire, one wayward pinch of potassium chlorate, one errant twitch...and kablooie!
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