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On November 06 2020 16:54 FlaShFTW wrote:https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1324620922851069952?s=20Rakich puts it best: sunken cost fallacy, do I sleep or do I want to see Georgia flip. I do have to sleep though, gotta teach a high school class tomorrow morning. Cheers all, see ya bright and early tomorrow morning! EDIT: Yep. Gonna leave this at 8999. Maybe I just stop reporting for the rest of the election 
Thanks for keeping this thread so up to date with good info, this has been such a great source of info for me and many others. I'm off to bed too and can't wait to wake up tomorrow to a blue Georgia and hopefully even Pennsylvania
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How much would you have won if you bet say $1,000 on Biden winning when he was down to <50%?
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Northern Ireland27464 Posts
On November 06 2020 16:54 FlaShFTW wrote:https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1324620922851069952?s=20Rakich puts it best: sunken cost fallacy, do I sleep or do I want to see Georgia flip. I do have to sleep though, gotta teach a high school class tomorrow morning. Cheers all, see ya bright and early tomorrow morning! EDIT: Yep. Gonna leave this at 8999. Maybe I just stop reporting for the rest of the election EDIT 2: Shockey, I can update this post continuously and stay at 8999 forever MUAHAHAHAHA
‘What does the scouter say about his power level?’
‘Em, it’s almost 9000.’
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On November 06 2020 16:54 FlaShFTW wrote:https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1324620922851069952?s=20Rakich puts it best: sunken cost fallacy, do I sleep or do I want to see Georgia flip. I do have to sleep though, gotta teach a high school class tomorrow morning. Cheers all, see ya bright and early tomorrow morning! EDIT: Yep. Gonna leave this at 8999. Maybe I just stop reporting for the rest of the election EDIT 2: Shockey, I can update this post continuously and stay at 8999 forever MUAHAHAHAHA
Oh, I’m sure your next writing assignment can come much sooner 8)
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On November 06 2020 16:58 Dante08 wrote:
How much would you have won if you bet say $1,000 on Biden winning when he was down to <50%?
Well take the odds of him winning at that point, so say you bought in at 40% chance of winning. So that would be a +150 bet, hence if the bookies took no money, you'd win $1500.
But for live betting vig is high, so instead of -150/+150, it'd be like -170/+130. So around $1300 at 40%.
Also somewhat related, I was shocked at how many arbitrage opportunities there were this election when things were shifting. Simultaneously between different bookies you could put - 700 on Biden, and +1000 on Trump. But was difficult to pump in enough money quickly enough to make it worthwhile. But betting limits were around 20k.
So if you put say $20k on Biden at - 700, and $2350 on Trump at +1000, if Trump wins you get $23500 back ($2350 profit), and if Biden wins you get $510. Was literally free money.
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On November 06 2020 16:58 Dante08 wrote:
How much would you have won if you bet say $1,000 on Biden winning when he was down to <50%?
You would have to ask FiwiFaki but I think at worse Biden was at 4 to 1.
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On November 06 2020 14:31 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 14:20 TheTenthDoc wrote:
I dunno, the Dem primary polling in 2020 was totally on point (I think even the second choices were on point), and the 2018 midterm polling was on point as well. Presidential polling is what's been a shitshow. You’re right. Analysis I’ve read suggests that repeat Trump voters get a lot of shame and were worried their friends would find out. Really weird situation. Wonder if it’ll just be a fluke if republicans start being Norma again.
There's was very little evidence for 'Shy Trump voters' before and this election hasn't provided any either. For one, even in 2020 it's not like Trump is overperforming his polls in purple suburbs where people might have friends or family that would be ashamed--he's overperforming mostly in red rural areas and conservative Latinos. Additionally polls involving Trump haven't been any more wrong than polls involving more generic republicans in Senate or district races--believing in a 'shy Trump effect' implies downballot effects or a belief in a 'shy Tillis effect'.
The polls this election were bad, just as they were in 2016 and 2012 (where they underestimated Obama by quite a bit), but there's no particular reason to believe in shy Trump voters as the reason why. It also won't be obvious whether the polls are just quite bad or really really bad until all the vote is counted though. All the blue shifts and red shifts from mail ballots really amplified people's perception of polling misses--like people wouldn't have cared nearly as much if the count had showed a steady (albeit smaller than expected) Biden lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania throughout.
Why pollsters got it wrong is a more interesting question that'll take a while to figure out. In Florida they probably just failed to sample Cubans properly, since they're a small, hard-to-reach, yet key demographic. In the Midwest, where it's basically the same mistake as 2016, who knows. I'm sure there'll be explanations forthcoming on why Ann Selzer is the only person who seems to know how to poll the area.
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538 talking about the expected "blue wave", saying that the narrative that it didn't happen isn't quite right. It happened, but a red wave, although slightly smaller, happened too.
Trump is ahead 650 votes in Georgia.
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Biden keeps rising (or lowering if you like) in the odds. 1/12 now,yesterday it was 1/9 when i went to sleep.
Seeing the lack of support for trump from the republican party i dont think any lawsuit has a chance to change the outcome.
What kwark said on the previous page,i think it definitely holds some merrits.
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On November 06 2020 15:55 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 15:47 dbRic1203 wrote:
Anything important happened over night? Here's a state by state update: Nevada: Biden managed to widen the margin after some more Clark County (Las Vegas) vote came in. Nevada at this point can be called but because FOX and AP have already called Arizona, this would make Biden the president and all the news networks want to be roughly on the same time so now it's this cat and mouse game LOL. The remaining vote will be dropped tomorrow morning. Arizona: Trump has closed the gap a little but he needs to hold onto a 57/43 line to win. Maricopa (Phoenix) county is set to be dropped tomorrow morning around 9am PST. PA: Still counting right now, Biden is set to overtake Trump probably by midnight PST (3am EST) the way things are going right now. At that moment, expect a lot of news agencies to call the race and that would push Biden over 270. Philly still has a lot of vote left. GA: We are inching closer and closer and closer every update. Trump only leads by 1.2k right now and the next large-ish update from there should flip the state blue. Due to provisional ballots, military and overseas ballots to be counted (about 9k) even if Biden takes the lead they will not call the race. NC: nothing, expect the vote to come out next friday (LOL) Alaska: still nothing, its expected to be red but they're just waiting on the first batch of early vote to make sure (Biden needs like 67% of the EVs in Alaska to flip it blue, very unlikely but who knows). As for the raw news, Trump has still refused to accept that he's losing, claiming lots of voter fraud and sueing states left and right. Really quite sad in his speech actually, very unlike his normal high energy self. All the news stations came out against Trump, basically blasting him and saying voter fraud is nonexistent and he is lying.
Feels more to me like the villain who has been shot 6 times, but won't stop agonizing and says : "You. Can't. Kill. Meee" while the hero empties his charger yelling "Will you finally die!!!"
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On November 06 2020 16:34 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 16:32 CorsairHero wrote:On November 06 2020 15:47 dbRic1203 wrote:
Anything important happened over night? Trump kids are wondering on twitter why the republicans abandoned them on the voter fraud thing Eventually they’ll work out that the Republican establishment was just using them for tax cuts and judge seats.
Don't think they are nearly smart enough for that; but seeing the rats jump off the ship is intensely satisfying.
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Its a kinda risky situation for the republican establishment,some of the trump supporters will be disapointed and possibly turn away from the party and they cant really afford to lose them. There is no alternative for those voters so they might end up not voting at all. Trump will become a bit of a cult hero i guess,hero of the people for some.
2 years till the next elections and 4 years till the next presidential elections,i wonder where the republicans will go from here.
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On November 06 2020 17:35 pmh wrote:
Its a kinda risky situation for the republican establishment,some of the trump supporters will be disapointed and possibly turn away from the party. Trump will become a bit of a cult hero.
2 years till the next elections and 4 years till the next presidential elections,i kinda wonder where the republicans will go from here.
Yeah, they put themselves in kind of a horrible situation. I don't wish them good luck.
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On November 06 2020 17:27 pmh wrote:
Biden keeps rising (or lowering if you like) in the odds. 1/12 now,yesterday it was 1/9 when i went to sleep.
Seeing the lack of support for trump from the republican party i dont think any lawsuit has a chance to change the outcome.
What kwark said on the previous page,i think it definitely holds some merrits.
Yeah, it's been moving a lot of emotions rather than info. Whenever Nate or some other prominent figure tweets result is inevitable, Biden would go to like -1600 or -2000, but then when it got quiet like during the night odds would go back down to - 700 even though there was no new information. Honestly this is the first time I ever gambled on anything, but I thought it was a good one because people bet very emotionally since it's close to their heart... Versus a UFC fight or a football game, I think they view it a lot more rationally and it's hard to get any edge.
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On November 06 2020 17:35 pmh wrote:
Its a kinda risky situation for the republican establishment,some of the trump supporters will be disapointed and possibly turn away from the party. Trump will become a bit of a cult hero.
2 years till the next elections and 4 years till the next presidential elections,i kinda wonder where the republicans will go from here.
Well, if there's anything I've learned, it's that voters have a very short memory. In 2016, part of Trump's platform was providing universal healthcare to all of America and closing tax loopholes, and both of these stances went over really well with Republicans in the primary and voters as a whole in the general. Trump never accomplished these goals (if anything, he exacerbated the issues) and convinced his supporters that the other politicians pushing the same ideas were evil socialists here to ruin America.
Some might feel alienated by the Republicans if the party ditches Trump but I think most will be ready to defend themselves from the evil socialists come 2022.
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Georgia is at +463 for Trump now according to NYT after 306 new votes went in.
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On November 06 2020 17:38 FiWiFaKi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 17:27 pmh wrote:
Biden keeps rising (or lowering if you like) in the odds. 1/12 now,yesterday it was 1/9 when i went to sleep.
Seeing the lack of support for trump from the republican party i dont think any lawsuit has a chance to change the outcome.
What kwark said on the previous page,i think it definitely holds some merrits. Yeah, it's been moving a lot of emotions rather than info. Whenever Nate or some other prominent figure tweets result is inevitable, Biden would go to like -1600 or -2000, but then when it got quiet like during the night odds would go back down to - 700 even though there was no new information. Honestly this is the first time I ever gambled on anything, but I thought it was a good one because people bet very emotionally since it's close to their heart... Versus a UFC fight or a football game, I think they view it a lot more rationally and it's hard to get any edge.
Congratz on your bets btw. When you where contemplating to double down yesterday i was about to advice against it from a risk management point of vieuw lol but i held of as it did seem a rather sure thing to me as well.
Personally i would still cash out at some point if the odds keep improving (not sure if possible and you have to take into account the fee as well) just to close the tail risk. But seeing the fees its probably beter to let it run till the end.
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On November 06 2020 17:42 StasisField wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 17:35 pmh wrote:
Its a kinda risky situation for the republican establishment,some of the trump supporters will be disapointed and possibly turn away from the party. Trump will become a bit of a cult hero.
2 years till the next elections and 4 years till the next presidential elections,i kinda wonder where the republicans will go from here. In 2016, part of Trump's platform was providing universal healthcare to all of America and closing tax loopholes, and both of these stances went over really well with Republicans in the primary and voters as a whole in the general.
His main campaign policies were immigration (build the wall), taking care of vets and the economy/trade (exiting TPP). I guess you could throw "draining the swamp" as well. He made a huge deal over some air conditioning manufacturing jobs coming back that created a few thousands jobs because of him.
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At this pace, the thing that stops GA from flipping is Zeno's paradox being realised. Cause 2020.
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EPT
