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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.
Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.
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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On December 09 2022 21:48 BlackJack wrote: Since it was suspended in your country for that reason JimmiC must also believe that the people in your country are also spreading misinformation and fear mongering. Ah okay.. I see your point.
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On December 09 2022 21:48 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2022 21:44 raynpelikoneet wrote:On December 09 2022 21:37 BlackJack wrote: Oh shit shots fired at the Scandinavian countries that banned Moderna vaccine for certain people for fear mongering and spreading misinformation.
Also I never said you should be scared of myocarditis or COVID, but you do you. If someone is too afraid of COVID to leave their house I’m here to defend their right to not leave their house. If Novak Djokovic is so afraid of vaccine side effects that he doesn’t want the vaccine I’m here to defend his right. I’m not making any judgements on the reasonableness of either of these decisions. I think you're talking about me here? I know Moderna has been banned for certain "groups of people" in Finland. However i am not to decide anything about that. Also if there is a study that even 0.00000000000000000000000000001% more people will die and i get to decide if to take that or 0% (or closer to 0%) why would i not? Because my country decides to give some other vaccine (which they didn't at the time i got mine btw) doesn't mean anything on my stance. No I’m talking to JimmiC who says I’m spreading misinformation by saying that myocarditis is a rare side effect of the mRNA vaccines, particularly Moderna. Since it was suspended in your country for that reason JimmiC must also believe that the people in your country are also spreading misinformation and fear mongering.
I mean we have others availble with even less risk than that and clearly our medical professionals are picking the safest best option even if the difference is miniscule. Why would I have any problem with that?
They are not saying vaccination is dangerous, or anywhere close to dangerous
Those moderna risks are way lower than tons of approved common medicines. And if sonething slightly less risky comes on board we will switch to that as well. Progress is not bad.
You make very strange illogical conclusions from tge information you are provided.
Edit: if your point was meant to be that Moderna specifically for males under 40, dose 2 that there was a slight increase in risk for mydo over pfizer but still is much safer than covid. Than I would agree with you. I would also agree that everything else being equal it would make more sense to get pfizer than Moderno.
But based on your posts it is hard to believe that is what you were going for. You said "vaccines" despite them being better in every way and Pfizer being slightly lower than unvaccinated for both shots.
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There seem to be some movement towards acknowledging that some of unexpected deaths may be caused by vaccine:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5
Autopsy study, where they took 35 people excluded all dying to different reasons than myocarditis, or with myocarditis with pre-existing illness. That left them with 5 people whose deaths may be "likely", or "possibly" related to vaccine.
One of the worrying parts of the study is that it seems that neither of the deceased was diagnosed with myocarditis following vaccination.
"Clinical findings, blood tests, ECGs or imaging data were not available as deceased persons did not seek medical attention prior to death"
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It was never about denying that there was any risk at all with the vaccine it was always about having to explain to people that the benefits of the vaccine have always outweighed the risks.
Constantly bringing up fake conspiracy theories about people ignoring the risks of the vaccine is trying to make people scared to get the vaccine.
And you can compare numbers with each other that is how numbers work. Just denying that you can't understand how they relate isn't justification for denying the value of different numbers.
A good argument you could make is that Florida has been such an unreliable source of covid numbers under a governor that raided the house of the person who was collecting the numbers, because he didn't like the numbers, that we should ignore comparisons due to reliability issues.
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Just curious if people have seen other estimates/studies on the potential cost of long covid?
Long Covid may be ‘the next public health disaster’ — with a $3.7 trillion economic impact rivaling the Great Recession
www.cnbc.com
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There are some truly horrifying things with long covid that people will learn in time.
The average of workers that have a job but cant work due to illness has more than doubled. I can't tell you how freaked out my manager is and how much money was spent at my plant to reduce contact or exposure. Parts are basically radioactive for a day in normal circumstances to where we're just pushing parts with sticks if they fall on the ground and we didn't work them.
Edit I should expound a bit.
This is an exponential type change to the cost of doing business. The rate of employees returning to work after having an absence for any reason gets exponentially greater. Doubling the percent it's going from like a percentage to 2 give or take but there is very clearly a new average through the ups and downs of the post March 2020 world. Thats an incredible uptick in recruiting and training costs. My factory installed cranes at every cnc machine so we didnt have to lift more than 20lbs and they estimated that they paid for themselves in 6 years.
"long covid" isn't just a new disease it's an entirely new classification of the damages that covid has done to the body. Real organ damage to the brain heart liver lungs is something that you don't easily recover from and die from decades sooner than without. Just a little bit of long covid means you are delivered into poverty with no job prospects or way to be productive.
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On December 10 2022 09:26 GreenHorizons wrote:Just curious if people have seen other estimates/studies on the potential cost of long covid? Show nested quote +Long Covid may be ‘the next public health disaster’ — with a $3.7 trillion economic impact rivaling the Great Recession www.cnbc.com
Honestly never understood these so-called estimates/studies
Here's the actual text, it's only about 5 paragraphs long
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/cutler/files/long_covid_update_7-22.pdf
For example
I assume that long COVID lasts 5 years on average, consistent with the slow rate of recovery observed to date. I assume a year in good health is worth $100,000. The first row of the table shows the resulting implied cost of reduced health, estimated to be $2.2 trillion.
How much credence should be put into what really kind of sounds like a guy making some assumptions and then doing some simple multiplication? If a 12-year old could do the same analysis with a calculator and google in less than 10 minutes is it really that credible?
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In all honesty when it comes to long covid I am a bit on sceptical side. Not that I dont believe that there is long covid, but rather than its impact is greatly exaggerated. Lets look at the link magic supplied:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/08/long-covid-work-economy-united-states-health
they based article on survey and a study. here is the survey they based it on:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/long-covid.htm#technical_notes
And here is the key question:
"Did you have any symptoms lasting 3 months or longer that you did not have prior to having coronavirus or COVID-19?
Long term symptoms may include: Tiredness or fatigue, difficulty thinking, concentrating, forgetfulness, or memory problems (sometimes referred to as “brain fog”), difficulty breathing or shortness of breath, joint or muscle pain, fast-beating or pounding heart (also known as heart palpitations), chest pain, dizziness on standing, menstrual changes, changes to taste/smell, or inability to exercise.
Answer choices: yes, no"
It is almost silly. It asks about "any symptoms" and then as an example it gives insanely broad range of symptoms. I am honestly surprised that this survey didnt return with 100% of long covid cases. For comparision:
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/anxiety/symptoms-causes/syc-20350961
Anxiety symptoms:
Feeling nervous, restless or tense Having a sense of impending danger, panic or doom Having an increased heart rate Breathing rapidly (hyperventilation) Sweating Trembling Feeling weak or tired Trouble concentrating or thinking about anything other than the present worry Having trouble sleeping Experiencing gastrointestinal (GI) problems Having difficulty controlling worry Having the urge to avoid things that trigger anxiety
Study from magic article:
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/institute-working-papers/long-haulers-and-labor-market-outcomes
"I used the University of Southern California Understanding America Study COVID-19 longitudinal survey"
Identifying Individuals Who Have Had Long-Term COVID: Did you have COVID-related symptoms or health complications that lasted at least 12 weeks?
With data of this quality I am surprised that anyone trying to be serious wrote article about it, let alone did research.
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Norway28255 Posts
Anecdotally, one of my best friends was basically unable to do strenuous exercise for several months after he got Covid. We go cross country skiing together and he had to call quits for the season, and overall, he's in very good shape. That was last winter, but he's totally fine now. Dunno the exact timeline, but he was physically affected for several months.
Aside from him I don't know anyone who has really reported any long term symptoms though. I haven't met anyone who has mentioned the 'brain fog' or whatever. Which might be indicative of two things - a) that it's a pretty damn uncommon side effect (I work as a teacher and of my colleagues nearly everyone has had it, close family has all had it, whole lot of pupils, prolly half my friends), and b) that it might not even be something people talk all that openly about. I think if I suddenly felt like an idiot and I was afraid it was a permanent/long lasting condition, I'd be in big denial mode.
I do wonder what percentage of people suffering from 'long covid' includes the worst symptoms (deteriorated mental capacity, obviously a huge deal) or if it's more 'gets out of breath much faster and has a harder time recovering from exhaustion' (annoying but unless you're an athlete then being sidelined for half a year isn't really a big deal). I'm obviously not denying it's a thing, I just wonder about a) how common the worst long-covid side effects are and b) if this, also, is something exacerbated by preexisting conditions.
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I mean it does make sense that you wouldn't know anyone specifically that has a long covid effect that presents publically. If it was a 1 in a hundred thing or a one in a thousand thing that was a debilitating result it would be a thing that would be a thing that would cripple day to day functioning of society like covid itself.
Its the fact that its now added to pre-existing conditions and has manifested as new pre-existing conditions for everything that comes next to why its so bad. Having any sort of organ damage will result in the next thing that happens to be much worse. Lung damage means that the flu season is going to hit you much harder. Any loss in mental function or hand eye function means that you will more likely get into a car crash or injure yourself on the job.
When you can die or be crippled for something every single day a small increase to those odds will effect things.
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I've had many instances of "brain fog" where I'll be thinking about something and then forget what I'm thinking about in the middle of thinking about it. Then I get worried about why I can't concentrate on what I was thinking about which causes even more fogginess to swirl around in my head and causes me to worry even more, and so on and so forth. Certainly I don't remember this happening before the pandemic but that could also be because you wouldn't make note of it before the pandemic. Just like when you learn a new word and you start to see it everywhere. Is this a new phenomenon or are we just more hyperaware of these little moments of forgetfulness and absent mindedness because we're inundated with news about COVID causing brain fog? George Carlin has a bit about "things we have in common" and one of the jokes is "You ever walk into a room and completely forget why you went in there in the first place and one thought comes across your mind: Alzheimer's disease." (paraphrasing, I'm sure his delivery is better). Certainly something we've all done plenty of times even before the pandemic, at least I have.
I think there's obviously some psychological component to long-COVID manifestation and there is good evidence for this. For example studies that show psychological distress preceding COVID infection is strongly associated with developing long-COVID.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/09/depression-anxiety-may-escalate-chances-of-long-covid-says-study/
I also know many people that have reported having very bad reactions to the COVID vaccine. Literally every single one of those people that reported very bad reactions were people that didn't want the vaccine in the first place and only reluctantly got it because they were required to in order to keep their job. It seems much more likely that there are psychological things in play here as well as opposed to accepting the massive coincidence that people with the bad reactions just so happened to be the people that didn't want the vaccine.
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A colleague of mine had Covid, and since then had trouble remembering things. She's slowly recovering and is back at work, but still (a year later) doesn't feel right. Sometimes she just draws a blank on memories she should by any reasonable standard have. I damned well hope symptoms like that are rather than 1 in 1000...
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While this study looks reassuring it is actually quite irrelevant.
First of all, as mentioned few times - vaccinated or not, you are getting covid, so myocarditis after covid (covid is viral infection) is a new baseline.
Second - study you linked, only follow up on patients, actually diagnosed with myocarditis, as mentioned few posts above in autopsy study:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5
Neither of deceased was actually diagnosed with it - meaning it was actually undetected till they died. Which is the main reason of concern.
Also lets look at the numbers here:
Viral - 762 patients Vaccine - 104 patients
Over 19/20 years 2000-2019 there were 762 cases of myocarditis following viral infection, while over around 2 years there were 104 cases of myocarditis following vaccination.
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On December 12 2022 08:48 Razyda wrote:While this study looks reassuring it is actually quite irrelevant. First of all, as mentioned few times - vaccinated or not, you are getting covid, so myocarditis after covid (covid is viral infection) is a new baseline. Second - study you linked, only follow up on patients, actually diagnosed with myocarditis, as mentioned few posts above in autopsy study: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5Neither of deceased was actually diagnosed with it - meaning it was actually undetected till they died. Which is the main reason of concern. Also lets look at the numbers here: Viral - 762 patients Vaccine - 104 patients Over 19/20 years 2000-2019 there were 762 cases of myocarditis following viral infection, while over around 2 years there were 104 cases of myocarditis following vaccination. My post was completely unrelated to yours, because I did not take the time to look into yours because of past history.
That being said the study has nothing to do with prevalence and everything to do with severity so that there was more after does not change anything.
They are not arguing that it does not cause it in rare cases, they are saying that you do not need to be as scared of the myocarditis you get from vaccination as you do the kind you get virally because the the one from the vaccination is way less severe.
*Now if you are right and they are hiding a whole bunch of vaccine deaths then there their source data would be wrong and it could be just as bad. For us waiting for proof that is happening this is interesting information.
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On December 11 2022 23:01 JimmiC wrote: The power of the human mind and the nocebo effects.
Yes, no surprise that a recent study found preexisting anxiety led to an almost 3x gain in 'Long Covid' diagnosis.No wonder SSRIs are what many doctors are using to treat it.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-exaggeration-of-long-covid-overmedicalization-research-mortality-children-bivalent-restrictions-11670857268
An Annals of Internal Medicine study ran an exhaustive battery of tests on 48 people with long Covid and 50 people without. The researchers found no biochemical or physiologic abnormalities in people with long Covid. “Levels of plasma inflammatory markers, levels of biomarkers for cardiac and central nervous system injury, and presence of select autoantibodies were similar between groups,” they concluded. The only medical factor that predicted long Covid was pre-existing anxiety, associated with a 2.8 times increased risk of developing long Covid.
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You're unfortunately citing a paywalled opinion piece. Can you link the study the author relies upon?
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On December 13 2022 15:36 Artisreal wrote: You're unfortunately citing a paywalled opinion piece. Can you link the study the author relies upon? Seems clear that it's this one. Seems pretty clear cut. However, the result is both preliminary and there is a considerable risk of selection bias in the study setup, both of these things are emphasized in the article.
The authors obviously buffer all their conclusions in statistics that basically say "we didn't find anything, but the power of the study is not powerful enough to preclude their existence".
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-4905
Finally, my own take on this (as a statistician, not an MD), is that it's an interesting study. But I agree it is not enough on its own to conclude much, but rather to indicate how to conduct follow-up studies. One thing in particular did strike me as odd and that is that all these symptoms are being lumped together. Possibly because they are all rare. However if a minor subset of a minor subset of your participants reports shortness of breath, but you then test lung capacity for everybody in your test cohort, including those who don't have shortness of breath but are in the long covid test group because of memory impairment, you won't find statistically significant differences. Same for the cognitive tests and including those with breathing problems. You'd need to treat all of these different symptoms of long covid as different issues, something the authors didn't do, and that to me seems remarkable, but might be common practice in medicine where a single pathology can manifest in many different ways in different individuals.
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On December 13 2022 16:36 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2022 15:36 Artisreal wrote: You're unfortunately citing a paywalled opinion piece. Can you link the study the author relies upon? Seems clear that it's this one. Seems pretty clear cut. However, the result is both preliminary and there is a considerable risk of selection bias in the study setup, both of these things are emphasized in the article. The authors obviously buffer all their conclusions in statistics that basically say "we didn't find anything, but the power of the study is not powerful enough to preclude their existence". https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-4905Finally, my own take on this (as a statistician, not an MD), is that it's an interesting study. But I agree it is not enough on its own to conclude much, but rather to indicate how to conduct follow-up studies. One thing in particular did strike me as odd and that is that all these symptoms are being lumped together. Possibly because they are all rare. However if a minor subset of a minor subset of your participants reports shortness of breath, but you then test lung capacity for everybody in your test cohort, including those who don't have shortness of breath but are in the long covid test group because of memory impairment, you won't find statistically significant differences. Same for the cognitive tests and including those with breathing problems. You'd need to treat all of these different symptoms of long covid as different issues, something the authors didn't do, and that to me seems remarkable, but might be common practice in medicine where a single pathology can manifest in many different ways in different individuals.
This is really nice study, thank you for the link. I really like inclusion of control group and sheer amount of various tests they made there.
Bolded: I actually think it was correct of them. All those symptoms are attributed to long covid and authors weren't looking at particular symptoms, but at long covid as a whole.
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