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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On December 09 2022 21:48 BlackJack wrote: Since it was suspended in your country for that reason JimmiC must also believe that the people in your country are also spreading misinformation and fear mongering. Ah okay.. I see your point. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Razyda
841 Posts
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5 Autopsy study, where they took 35 people excluded all dying to different reasons than myocarditis, or with myocarditis with pre-existing illness. That left them with 5 people whose deaths may be "likely", or "possibly" related to vaccine. One of the worrying parts of the study is that it seems that neither of the deceased was diagnosed with myocarditis following vaccination. "Clinical findings, blood tests, ECGs or imaging data were not available as deceased persons did not seek medical attention prior to death" | ||
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Sermokala
United States14011 Posts
Constantly bringing up fake conspiracy theories about people ignoring the risks of the vaccine is trying to make people scared to get the vaccine. And you can compare numbers with each other that is how numbers work. Just denying that you can't understand how they relate isn't justification for denying the value of different numbers. A good argument you could make is that Florida has been such an unreliable source of covid numbers under a governor that raided the house of the person who was collecting the numbers, because he didn't like the numbers, that we should ignore comparisons due to reliability issues. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23339 Posts
Long Covid may be ‘the next public health disaster’ — with a $3.7 trillion economic impact rivaling the Great Recession www.cnbc.com | ||
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Sermokala
United States14011 Posts
The average of workers that have a job but cant work due to illness has more than doubled. I can't tell you how freaked out my manager is and how much money was spent at my plant to reduce contact or exposure. Parts are basically radioactive for a day in normal circumstances to where we're just pushing parts with sticks if they fall on the ground and we didn't work them. Edit I should expound a bit. This is an exponential type change to the cost of doing business. The rate of employees returning to work after having an absence for any reason gets exponentially greater. Doubling the percent it's going from like a percentage to 2 give or take but there is very clearly a new average through the ups and downs of the post March 2020 world. Thats an incredible uptick in recruiting and training costs. My factory installed cranes at every cnc machine so we didnt have to lift more than 20lbs and they estimated that they paid for themselves in 6 years. "long covid" isn't just a new disease it's an entirely new classification of the damages that covid has done to the body. Real organ damage to the brain heart liver lungs is something that you don't easily recover from and die from decades sooner than without. Just a little bit of long covid means you are delivered into poverty with no job prospects or way to be productive. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
On December 10 2022 09:26 GreenHorizons wrote: Just curious if people have seen other estimates/studies on the potential cost of long covid? www.cnbc.com Honestly never understood these so-called estimates/studies Here's the actual text, it's only about 5 paragraphs long https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/cutler/files/long_covid_update_7-22.pdf For example I assume that long COVID lasts 5 years on average, consistent with the slow rate of recovery observed to date. I assume a year in good health is worth $100,000. The first row of the table shows the resulting implied cost of reduced health, estimated to be $2.2 trillion. How much credence should be put into what really kind of sounds like a guy making some assumptions and then doing some simple multiplication? If a 12-year old could do the same analysis with a calculator and google in less than 10 minutes is it really that credible? | ||
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Razyda
841 Posts
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/08/long-covid-work-economy-united-states-health they based article on survey and a study. here is the survey they based it on: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/long-covid.htm#technical_notes And here is the key question: "Did you have any symptoms lasting 3 months or longer that you did not have prior to having coronavirus or COVID-19? Long term symptoms may include: Tiredness or fatigue, difficulty thinking, concentrating, forgetfulness, or memory problems (sometimes referred to as “brain fog”), difficulty breathing or shortness of breath, joint or muscle pain, fast-beating or pounding heart (also known as heart palpitations), chest pain, dizziness on standing, menstrual changes, changes to taste/smell, or inability to exercise. Answer choices: yes, no" It is almost silly. It asks about "any symptoms" and then as an example it gives insanely broad range of symptoms. I am honestly surprised that this survey didnt return with 100% of long covid cases. For comparision: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/anxiety/symptoms-causes/syc-20350961 Anxiety symptoms: Feeling nervous, restless or tense Having a sense of impending danger, panic or doom Having an increased heart rate Breathing rapidly (hyperventilation) Sweating Trembling Feeling weak or tired Trouble concentrating or thinking about anything other than the present worry Having trouble sleeping Experiencing gastrointestinal (GI) problems Having difficulty controlling worry Having the urge to avoid things that trigger anxiety Study from magic article: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/institute-working-papers/long-haulers-and-labor-market-outcomes "I used the University of Southern California Understanding America Study COVID-19 longitudinal survey" Identifying Individuals Who Have Had Long-Term COVID: Did you have COVID-related symptoms or health complications that lasted at least 12 weeks? With data of this quality I am surprised that anyone trying to be serious wrote article about it, let alone did research. | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28692 Posts
Aside from him I don't know anyone who has really reported any long term symptoms though. I haven't met anyone who has mentioned the 'brain fog' or whatever. Which might be indicative of two things - a) that it's a pretty damn uncommon side effect (I work as a teacher and of my colleagues nearly everyone has had it, close family has all had it, whole lot of pupils, prolly half my friends), and b) that it might not even be something people talk all that openly about. I think if I suddenly felt like an idiot and I was afraid it was a permanent/long lasting condition, I'd be in big denial mode. I do wonder what percentage of people suffering from 'long covid' includes the worst symptoms (deteriorated mental capacity, obviously a huge deal) or if it's more 'gets out of breath much faster and has a harder time recovering from exhaustion' (annoying but unless you're an athlete then being sidelined for half a year isn't really a big deal). I'm obviously not denying it's a thing, I just wonder about a) how common the worst long-covid side effects are and b) if this, also, is something exacerbated by preexisting conditions. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14011 Posts
Its the fact that its now added to pre-existing conditions and has manifested as new pre-existing conditions for everything that comes next to why its so bad. Having any sort of organ damage will result in the next thing that happens to be much worse. Lung damage means that the flu season is going to hit you much harder. Any loss in mental function or hand eye function means that you will more likely get into a car crash or injure yourself on the job. When you can die or be crippled for something every single day a small increase to those odds will effect things. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
I think there's obviously some psychological component to long-COVID manifestation and there is good evidence for this. For example studies that show psychological distress preceding COVID infection is strongly associated with developing long-COVID. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/09/depression-anxiety-may-escalate-chances-of-long-covid-says-study/ I also know many people that have reported having very bad reactions to the COVID vaccine. Literally every single one of those people that reported very bad reactions were people that didn't want the vaccine in the first place and only reluctantly got it because they were required to in order to keep their job. It seems much more likely that there are psychological things in play here as well as opposed to accepting the massive coincidence that people with the bad reactions just so happened to be the people that didn't want the vaccine. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18070 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Razyda
841 Posts
On December 12 2022 06:03 JimmiC wrote: Not all myocarditis is equal. Post vaccination is much MUCH less severe than viral. https://www.jacc.org/doi/10.1016/j.jacc.2022.09.049 While this study looks reassuring it is actually quite irrelevant. First of all, as mentioned few times - vaccinated or not, you are getting covid, so myocarditis after covid (covid is viral infection) is a new baseline. Second - study you linked, only follow up on patients, actually diagnosed with myocarditis, as mentioned few posts above in autopsy study: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5 Neither of deceased was actually diagnosed with it - meaning it was actually undetected till they died. Which is the main reason of concern. Also lets look at the numbers here: Viral - 762 patients Vaccine - 104 patients Over 19/20 years 2000-2019 there were 762 cases of myocarditis following viral infection, while over around 2 years there were 104 cases of myocarditis following vaccination. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4338 Posts
On December 11 2022 23:01 JimmiC wrote: The power of the human mind and the nocebo effects. Yes, no surprise that a recent study found preexisting anxiety led to an almost 3x gain in 'Long Covid' diagnosis.No wonder SSRIs are what many doctors are using to treat it. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-exaggeration-of-long-covid-overmedicalization-research-mortality-children-bivalent-restrictions-11670857268 An Annals of Internal Medicine study ran an exhaustive battery of tests on 48 people with long Covid and 50 people without. The researchers found no biochemical or physiologic abnormalities in people with long Covid. “Levels of plasma inflammatory markers, levels of biomarkers for cardiac and central nervous system injury, and presence of select autoantibodies were similar between groups,” they concluded. The only medical factor that predicted long Covid was pre-existing anxiety, associated with a 2.8 times increased risk of developing long Covid. | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
Can you link the study the author relies upon? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18070 Posts
On December 13 2022 15:36 Artisreal wrote: Seems clear that it's this one. Seems pretty clear cut. However, the result is both preliminary and there is a considerable risk of selection bias in the study setup, both of these things are emphasized in the article.You're unfortunately citing a paywalled opinion piece. Can you link the study the author relies upon? The authors obviously buffer all their conclusions in statistics that basically say "we didn't find anything, but the power of the study is not powerful enough to preclude their existence". https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-4905 Finally, my own take on this (as a statistician, not an MD), is that it's an interesting study. But I agree it is not enough on its own to conclude much, but rather to indicate how to conduct follow-up studies. One thing in particular did strike me as odd and that is that all these symptoms are being lumped together. Possibly because they are all rare. However if a minor subset of a minor subset of your participants reports shortness of breath, but you then test lung capacity for everybody in your test cohort, including those who don't have shortness of breath but are in the long covid test group because of memory impairment, you won't find statistically significant differences. Same for the cognitive tests and including those with breathing problems. You'd need to treat all of these different symptoms of long covid as different issues, something the authors didn't do, and that to me seems remarkable, but might be common practice in medicine where a single pathology can manifest in many different ways in different individuals. | ||
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Razyda
841 Posts
On December 13 2022 16:36 Acrofales wrote: Seems clear that it's this one. Seems pretty clear cut. However, the result is both preliminary and there is a considerable risk of selection bias in the study setup, both of these things are emphasized in the article. The authors obviously buffer all their conclusions in statistics that basically say "we didn't find anything, but the power of the study is not powerful enough to preclude their existence". https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-4905 Finally, my own take on this (as a statistician, not an MD), is that it's an interesting study. But I agree it is not enough on its own to conclude much, but rather to indicate how to conduct follow-up studies. One thing in particular did strike me as odd and that is that all these symptoms are being lumped together. Possibly because they are all rare. However if a minor subset of a minor subset of your participants reports shortness of breath, but you then test lung capacity for everybody in your test cohort, including those who don't have shortness of breath but are in the long covid test group because of memory impairment, you won't find statistically significant differences. Same for the cognitive tests and including those with breathing problems. You'd need to treat all of these different symptoms of long covid as different issues, something the authors didn't do, and that to me seems remarkable, but might be common practice in medicine where a single pathology can manifest in many different ways in different individuals. This is really nice study, thank you for the link. I really like inclusion of control group and sheer amount of various tests they made there. Bolded: I actually think it was correct of them. All those symptoms are attributed to long covid and authors weren't looking at particular symptoms, but at long covid as a whole. | ||
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