|
Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.
Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.
This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.
Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On March 02 2022 16:26 goiflin wrote:
So, what you're saying, is that we should not follow the recommendation set in the study you have linked, and instead should follow a recommendation set by, who?
I’m just stating the facts.The current jab is 12% effective at stopping transmission for 5-11 after five weeks.Healthy kids in this age group are at absolute minimal risk of being hospitalised, especially with the mild omicron variant.
There really is no benefit to these jabs for healthy 5-11 year old kids, great for Pfizer’s profits of course though.
Edit: To go even further into the discussion about this specific paper, they even suggest that the lower dosage in the 5-11 bracket could be the cause in the first place.
Yes, I assumed that was the case.Of course higher doses of mRNA is more likely to cause side effects especially in younger age brackets which is why Moderna (which has higher mRNA load than Pfizer) has been paused for those under 30 in several countries.
Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution”
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2477
|
On March 03 2022 16:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 16:26 goiflin wrote:
So, what you're saying, is that we should not follow the recommendation set in the study you have linked, and instead should follow a recommendation set by, who?
I’m just stating the facts.The current jab is 12% effective at stopping transmission for 5-11 after five weeks.Healthy kids in this age group are at absolute minimal risk of being hospitalised, especially with the mild omicron variant. There really is no benefit to these jabs for healthy 5-11 year old kids, great for Pfizer’s profits of course though. Show nested quote +
Edit: To go even further into the discussion about this specific paper, they even suggest that the lower dosage in the 5-11 bracket could be the cause in the first place.
Yes, I assumed that was the case.Of course higher doses of mRNA is more likely to cause side effects especially in younger age brackets which is why Moderna (which has higher mRNA load than Pfizer) has been paused for those under 30 in several countries. Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution” https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2477
So you link a study showing there is a small benefit to transmission and larger benefit to hospitalization, then go on to say “no” benefit: why? How does this make sense to you? You finish one sentence and then say the opposite in the next sentence. How is this not insane to you?
What is the % chance a child suffers from a vaccine?
Now compare that number to the % chance a child suffers from covid
Look at which number is bigger. Choose the other one.
Which part do you disagree with?
|
Northern Ireland27269 Posts
On March 03 2022 16:15 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2022 16:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On March 02 2022 16:26 goiflin wrote:
So, what you're saying, is that we should not follow the recommendation set in the study you have linked, and instead should follow a recommendation set by, who?
I’m just stating the facts.The current jab is 12% effective at stopping transmission for 5-11 after five weeks.Healthy kids in this age group are at absolute minimal risk of being hospitalised, especially with the mild omicron variant. There really is no benefit to these jabs for healthy 5-11 year old kids, great for Pfizer’s profits of course though.
Edit: To go even further into the discussion about this specific paper, they even suggest that the lower dosage in the 5-11 bracket could be the cause in the first place.
Yes, I assumed that was the case.Of course higher doses of mRNA is more likely to cause side effects especially in younger age brackets which is why Moderna (which has higher mRNA load than Pfizer) has been paused for those under 30 in several countries. Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution” https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2477 So you link a study showing there is a small benefit to transmission and larger benefit to hospitalization, then go on to say “no” benefit: why? How does this make sense to you? You finish one sentence and then say the opposite in the next sentence. How is this not insane to you? What is the % chance a child suffers from a vaccine? Now compare that number to the % chance a child suffers from covid Look at which number is bigger. Choose the other one. Which part do you disagree with?
Are there any models (I mean I’m 100% sure there are) as to how these varying ‘low’ numbers map out on a population level?
Aside from people seemingly having a strange approach to even the numbers as they pertain to individuals, possibly to try and augment the same arguments they’ve been trying to make for years now. Even 12% isn’t nothing, the 40% number I’ve seen quite a lot but momentarily forget what it refers to in adults (is it double jab sans booster vs omicron?) is pretty damn appreciable.
But what does 12% start to look like if every kiddo has it? Or every adult has even 40% reduction in transmission.
I assume there’s a rather huge cascading multiplier on overall transmission rates if every interaction one is having, they themselves have a 40% reduction in the spread chance, as does everyone they are interacting with.
|
On March 03 2022 16:35 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2022 16:15 Mohdoo wrote:On March 03 2022 16:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On March 02 2022 16:26 goiflin wrote:
So, what you're saying, is that we should not follow the recommendation set in the study you have linked, and instead should follow a recommendation set by, who?
I’m just stating the facts.The current jab is 12% effective at stopping transmission for 5-11 after five weeks.Healthy kids in this age group are at absolute minimal risk of being hospitalised, especially with the mild omicron variant. There really is no benefit to these jabs for healthy 5-11 year old kids, great for Pfizer’s profits of course though.
Edit: To go even further into the discussion about this specific paper, they even suggest that the lower dosage in the 5-11 bracket could be the cause in the first place.
Yes, I assumed that was the case.Of course higher doses of mRNA is more likely to cause side effects especially in younger age brackets which is why Moderna (which has higher mRNA load than Pfizer) has been paused for those under 30 in several countries. Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution” https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2477 So you link a study showing there is a small benefit to transmission and larger benefit to hospitalization, then go on to say “no” benefit: why? How does this make sense to you? You finish one sentence and then say the opposite in the next sentence. How is this not insane to you? What is the % chance a child suffers from a vaccine? Now compare that number to the % chance a child suffers from covid Look at which number is bigger. Choose the other one. Which part do you disagree with? Are there any models (I mean I’m 100% sure there are) as to how these varying ‘low’ numbers map out on a population level? Aside from people seemingly having a strange approach to even the numbers as they pertain to individuals, possibly to try and augment the same arguments they’ve been trying to make for years now. Even 12% isn’t nothing, the 40% number I’ve seen quite a lot but momentarily forget what it refers to in adults (is it double jab sans booster vs omicron?) is pretty damn appreciable. But what does 12% start to look like if every kiddo has it? Or every adult has even 40% reduction in transmission. I assume there’s a rather huge cascading multiplier on overall transmission rates if every interaction one is having, they themselves have a 40% reduction in the spread chance, as does everyone they are interacting with.
I already posted the models the FDA used in their advisory committee meeting when they approved the vaccine for 5-11 year olds. Here it is again:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/iWckk41.png)
https://www.fda.gov/media/153447/download Page 34
You can see, for example, for males in Scenario 1 they were estimating to prevent 67 COVID ICU admissions but cause 57 excess myocarditis ICU admissions (per million). Pretty close.
Now look at the footnotes and you will realize for most of their scenarios they were predicting a 70% VE and 80% protection against hospitalization.
Now Nettles is posting that after 5 weeks the VE is 12% and protection against hospitalization is 48%. When you run those models again with the new inputs I don't think you're going to get the results you're hoping for.
|
Northern Ireland27269 Posts
I was asking about what the potential, aggregative impact would be on the infection rate at a population level.
I am assuming these numbers are estimations of prevented infections within that group, per million. I had a brief skim as all that time allowed, that may prove to be an embarrassing misread
So in the ballpark of 40-50k, as per these, much more hopeful scenarios in numbers, and rather less at 12%, of prevented infections per million of this specific group if vaccinated.
How many infections does that 40-50k not being infected, subsequently prevent, and so on and so forth, was the particular question I was posing. Have a test approaching but have saved that paper to read later, thanks for that.
Specifically because increasingly a kind of societal-wide multiplier effect is looking really the only metric to be that concerned with vaccination in such a low-risk group, when the effectiveness of vaccines are hitting those kind of low numbers.
Part of why I’m curious is myself and the spawn host aren’t really sure as to what to do re vaccination or not with our youngling. Although as he and his household all picked it up last fortnight it’s a decision that has been forceably pushed back a bit.
|
I doubt it will move the needle in any noticeable way. 5-11 year olds are a fraction of the population and 12% VE is a fraction of that fraction. Omicron waves were basically a vertical line. It's still going to spread like wildfire even if you remove a few trees from the forest.
|
|
|
Glad to see that the numbers have improved enough to start dropping restrictions on most U.S. states as well as other countries.
Kind of crazy to me that the US is opening up with almost 2,000 deaths a day still, but if the science says its ok I'm good with it.
|
|
|
I agree, if people are still unvaccinated thats their choice even though I might disagree with it. The most vulnerable are screwed, but unfortunately its been two years and people are ready to move on.
|
On March 02 2022 12:21 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Like everyone else i’ve been more absorbed with the Russia situation and haven’t paid much attention to Covid lately, but this new study really shows just how marginal these jabs are for kids 5-11.Effectiveness just 12% after five weeks.For healthy kids with no other health issues there is clearly no need for these jabs. https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/pfizer-vaccine-effectiveness-plummets-to-12-per-cent-in-children-aged-five-to-11/news-story/22ddf3501c164c0a0ea3872b93b5aac0Show nested quote +
The researchers analysed statewide immunisation, laboratory testing and hospitalisation databases covering 852,384 fully vaccinated children aged 12 to 17 and 365,502 children aged five to 11.
The analysis compared outcomes among fully vaccinated children – defined as two weeks after their second dose – versus unvaccinated children in the two age groups.
They found that from December 13, 2021 to January 20, 2022, the vaccine’s effectiveness against infection declined from 66 per cent to 51 per cent for those aged 12 to 17, and from 68 per cent to 12 per cent for those aged five to 11.
Here's another article on it: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/health/pfizer-vaccine-kids.html?fbclid=IwAR3P7DftE1H3zYB8FE1pWc1xW4q1FmrnUSDL3f9qzDjoWpEeL8YibQn-Z08
Some points to consider in that article, as it's important for everyone to read past the headline:
1. It still significantly prevents severe illness and death in these children (so, yes, they still ought to be vaccinated);
2. The "less effective" part is referring to lowering the rate of infection, relative to how the vaccines/boosters do a decent job of lowering the infection rate for adults;
3. This is likely because the clinical trials have been carefully using extremely small doses for these developing children, compared to developed adults. Based on safety results, the researchers may consider trying slightly higher doses in future trials; they're simply being especially cautious to not overdose kids. Here's a key quote, from that article:
"The biological difference between the two ages is likely to be minimal, but while 12-year-old children got 30 micrograms of the vaccine — the same dose given to adults — children who were 11 received only 10 micrograms, he noted. “This is super interesting because it would almost suggest that it’s the dose that makes the difference,” he added. “The question is how to fix that.” ... The findings underscore the need to gather more information on the best dose, number and timing for the shots given to children, Dr. Rosenberg said."
So yes, mini-doses of vaccines are less effective than regular doses of vaccines. This is precisely what we'd expect.
|
On March 04 2022 01:03 Nick_54 wrote:
I agree, if people are still unvaccinated thats their choice even though I might disagree with it. The most vulnerable are screwed, but unfortunately its been two years and people are ready to move on.
And those unvaccinated people ought to be prepared to live with the consequences of not just making it more likely that they (or those close to them) get seriously ill, but that they may no longer have as many freedoms compared to those of us who are willing to contribute to the public health of our society.
|
On March 03 2022 17:39 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2022 16:35 WombaT wrote:On March 03 2022 16:15 Mohdoo wrote:On March 03 2022 16:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On March 02 2022 16:26 goiflin wrote:
So, what you're saying, is that we should not follow the recommendation set in the study you have linked, and instead should follow a recommendation set by, who?
I’m just stating the facts.The current jab is 12% effective at stopping transmission for 5-11 after five weeks.Healthy kids in this age group are at absolute minimal risk of being hospitalised, especially with the mild omicron variant. There really is no benefit to these jabs for healthy 5-11 year old kids, great for Pfizer’s profits of course though.
Edit: To go even further into the discussion about this specific paper, they even suggest that the lower dosage in the 5-11 bracket could be the cause in the first place.
Yes, I assumed that was the case.Of course higher doses of mRNA is more likely to cause side effects especially in younger age brackets which is why Moderna (which has higher mRNA load than Pfizer) has been paused for those under 30 in several countries. Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution” https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2477 So you link a study showing there is a small benefit to transmission and larger benefit to hospitalization, then go on to say “no” benefit: why? How does this make sense to you? You finish one sentence and then say the opposite in the next sentence. How is this not insane to you? What is the % chance a child suffers from a vaccine? Now compare that number to the % chance a child suffers from covid Look at which number is bigger. Choose the other one. Which part do you disagree with? Are there any models (I mean I’m 100% sure there are) as to how these varying ‘low’ numbers map out on a population level? Aside from people seemingly having a strange approach to even the numbers as they pertain to individuals, possibly to try and augment the same arguments they’ve been trying to make for years now. Even 12% isn’t nothing, the 40% number I’ve seen quite a lot but momentarily forget what it refers to in adults (is it double jab sans booster vs omicron?) is pretty damn appreciable. But what does 12% start to look like if every kiddo has it? Or every adult has even 40% reduction in transmission. I assume there’s a rather huge cascading multiplier on overall transmission rates if every interaction one is having, they themselves have a 40% reduction in the spread chance, as does everyone they are interacting with. I already posted the models the FDA used in their advisory committee meeting when they approved the vaccine for 5-11 year olds. Here it is again: https://www.fda.gov/media/153447/download Page 34 You can see, for example, for males in Scenario 1 they were estimating to prevent 67 COVID ICU admissions but cause 57 excess myocarditis ICU admissions (per million). Pretty close. Now look at the footnotes and you will realize for most of their scenarios they were predicting a 70% VE and 80% protection against hospitalization. Now Nettles is posting that after 5 weeks the VE is 12% and protection against hospitalization is 48%. When you run those models again with the new inputs I don't think you're going to get the results you're hoping for.
Yes, it is close, but one of them is smaller than the other. We want smaller. Smaller good.
Let me paint this in another way: 2 small boxes are put in front of you. One of them has $10 and the other has $12.
Yes, $10 is pretty close to $12, but if you have the choice between the 2, it would be really weird to choose $10.
So long as the two numbers are different, we have an obvious answer.
|
On March 04 2022 00:33 Nick_54 wrote:
Glad to see that the numbers have improved enough to start dropping restrictions on most U.S. states as well as other countries.
Kind of crazy to me that the US is opening up with almost 2,000 deaths a day still, but if the science says its ok I'm good with it.
Just for a bit of context on these decisions to open: Can't comment on the US, but as I recall around a month ago for the UK, the number of deaths due to COVID was pretty similar to those expected due to flu during the winter period prior to 2020. For the UK at least, it seems like a reasonable decision to remove restrictions and we just hope that the situation remains stable in the future.
|
I'm really happy we are getting close to full re-opening. I'm ready. As most of you know, my wife and I have been about as "well behaved" as you can get. The idea of being able to go back to life as normal is just amazing to consider. It has been so long.
|
|
|
On March 04 2022 02:09 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2022 17:39 BlackJack wrote:On March 03 2022 16:35 WombaT wrote:On March 03 2022 16:15 Mohdoo wrote:On March 03 2022 16:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On March 02 2022 16:26 goiflin wrote:
So, what you're saying, is that we should not follow the recommendation set in the study you have linked, and instead should follow a recommendation set by, who?
I’m just stating the facts.The current jab is 12% effective at stopping transmission for 5-11 after five weeks.Healthy kids in this age group are at absolute minimal risk of being hospitalised, especially with the mild omicron variant. There really is no benefit to these jabs for healthy 5-11 year old kids, great for Pfizer’s profits of course though.
Edit: To go even further into the discussion about this specific paper, they even suggest that the lower dosage in the 5-11 bracket could be the cause in the first place.
Yes, I assumed that was the case.Of course higher doses of mRNA is more likely to cause side effects especially in younger age brackets which is why Moderna (which has higher mRNA load than Pfizer) has been paused for those under 30 in several countries. Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution” https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2477 So you link a study showing there is a small benefit to transmission and larger benefit to hospitalization, then go on to say “no” benefit: why? How does this make sense to you? You finish one sentence and then say the opposite in the next sentence. How is this not insane to you? What is the % chance a child suffers from a vaccine? Now compare that number to the % chance a child suffers from covid Look at which number is bigger. Choose the other one. Which part do you disagree with? Are there any models (I mean I’m 100% sure there are) as to how these varying ‘low’ numbers map out on a population level? Aside from people seemingly having a strange approach to even the numbers as they pertain to individuals, possibly to try and augment the same arguments they’ve been trying to make for years now. Even 12% isn’t nothing, the 40% number I’ve seen quite a lot but momentarily forget what it refers to in adults (is it double jab sans booster vs omicron?) is pretty damn appreciable. But what does 12% start to look like if every kiddo has it? Or every adult has even 40% reduction in transmission. I assume there’s a rather huge cascading multiplier on overall transmission rates if every interaction one is having, they themselves have a 40% reduction in the spread chance, as does everyone they are interacting with. I already posted the models the FDA used in their advisory committee meeting when they approved the vaccine for 5-11 year olds. Here it is again: https://www.fda.gov/media/153447/download Page 34 You can see, for example, for males in Scenario 1 they were estimating to prevent 67 COVID ICU admissions but cause 57 excess myocarditis ICU admissions (per million). Pretty close. Now look at the footnotes and you will realize for most of their scenarios they were predicting a 70% VE and 80% protection against hospitalization. Now Nettles is posting that after 5 weeks the VE is 12% and protection against hospitalization is 48%. When you run those models again with the new inputs I don't think you're going to get the results you're hoping for. Yes, it is close, but one of them is smaller than the other. We want smaller. Smaller good. Let me paint this in another way: 2 small boxes are put in front of you. One of them has $10 and the other has $12. Yes, $10 is pretty close to $12, but if you have the choice between the 2, it would be really weird to choose $10. So long as the two numbers are different, we have an obvious answer.
Of course you conveniently ignore how going from a presumed 70% VE and 80% against hospitalization to 12% and 48% respectively would completely change those "boxes."
Even worse, you seemed to have missed the opportunity to think outside the boxes and contemplate a 3rd option. You falsely assume our only 2 options are to vaccinate all children or vaccinate no children. What if I told you we are already pretty decent at identifying children that will have poor outcomes from COVID. E.g. kids with immunocompromising conditions, cancer, chronic illnesses, neurological and neuromuscular diseases, obesity, kids with trachs and feeding tubes, kids with asthma and other airway diseases etc. What if I told you that some countries have chosen a policy to recommend vaccination specifically for these kids instead of across the board vaccination for healthy children? I don't think that makes them "against the science." It just makes them capable of thinking beyond this caveman reasoning of 'vaccine good, no vaccine bad.'
|
On March 04 2022 03:02 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2022 02:09 Mohdoo wrote:On March 03 2022 17:39 BlackJack wrote:On March 03 2022 16:35 WombaT wrote:On March 03 2022 16:15 Mohdoo wrote:On March 03 2022 16:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On March 02 2022 16:26 goiflin wrote:
So, what you're saying, is that we should not follow the recommendation set in the study you have linked, and instead should follow a recommendation set by, who?
I’m just stating the facts.The current jab is 12% effective at stopping transmission for 5-11 after five weeks.Healthy kids in this age group are at absolute minimal risk of being hospitalised, especially with the mild omicron variant. There really is no benefit to these jabs for healthy 5-11 year old kids, great for Pfizer’s profits of course though.
Edit: To go even further into the discussion about this specific paper, they even suggest that the lower dosage in the 5-11 bracket could be the cause in the first place.
Yes, I assumed that was the case.Of course higher doses of mRNA is more likely to cause side effects especially in younger age brackets which is why Moderna (which has higher mRNA load than Pfizer) has been paused for those under 30 in several countries. Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution” https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2477 So you link a study showing there is a small benefit to transmission and larger benefit to hospitalization, then go on to say “no” benefit: why? How does this make sense to you? You finish one sentence and then say the opposite in the next sentence. How is this not insane to you? What is the % chance a child suffers from a vaccine? Now compare that number to the % chance a child suffers from covid Look at which number is bigger. Choose the other one. Which part do you disagree with? Are there any models (I mean I’m 100% sure there are) as to how these varying ‘low’ numbers map out on a population level? Aside from people seemingly having a strange approach to even the numbers as they pertain to individuals, possibly to try and augment the same arguments they’ve been trying to make for years now. Even 12% isn’t nothing, the 40% number I’ve seen quite a lot but momentarily forget what it refers to in adults (is it double jab sans booster vs omicron?) is pretty damn appreciable. But what does 12% start to look like if every kiddo has it? Or every adult has even 40% reduction in transmission. I assume there’s a rather huge cascading multiplier on overall transmission rates if every interaction one is having, they themselves have a 40% reduction in the spread chance, as does everyone they are interacting with. I already posted the models the FDA used in their advisory committee meeting when they approved the vaccine for 5-11 year olds. Here it is again: https://www.fda.gov/media/153447/download Page 34 You can see, for example, for males in Scenario 1 they were estimating to prevent 67 COVID ICU admissions but cause 57 excess myocarditis ICU admissions (per million). Pretty close. Now look at the footnotes and you will realize for most of their scenarios they were predicting a 70% VE and 80% protection against hospitalization. Now Nettles is posting that after 5 weeks the VE is 12% and protection against hospitalization is 48%. When you run those models again with the new inputs I don't think you're going to get the results you're hoping for. Yes, it is close, but one of them is smaller than the other. We want smaller. Smaller good. Let me paint this in another way: 2 small boxes are put in front of you. One of them has $10 and the other has $12. Yes, $10 is pretty close to $12, but if you have the choice between the 2, it would be really weird to choose $10. So long as the two numbers are different, we have an obvious answer. Of course you conveniently ignore how going from a presumed 70% VE and 80% against hospitalization to 12% and 48% respectively would completely change those "boxes." Even worse, you seemed to have missed the opportunity to think outside the boxes and contemplate a 3rd option. You falsely assume our only 2 options are to vaccinate all children or vaccinate no children. What if I told you we are already pretty decent at identifying children that will have poor outcomes from COVID. E.g. kids with immunocompromising conditions, cancer, chronic illnesses, neurological and neuromuscular diseases, obesity, kids with trachs and feeding tubes, kids with asthma and other airway diseases etc. What if I told you that some countries have chosen a policy to recommend vaccination specifically for these kids instead of across the board vaccination for healthy children? I don't think that makes them "against the science." It just makes them capable of thinking beyond this caveman reasoning of 'vaccine good, no vaccine bad.'
The existence of better and worse starting conditions does not change the fact that the vaccine has a measurable improvement. So long as that improvement exists, it’s the right choice.
You are correct that some countries have chosen to just recommend it for at risk kids. Doesn’t actually change anything.
May I ask what cost you have in your mind regarding the vaccine? When you make a pros and cons list, what is in your cons list? I’d like to understand your perspective better.
|
On March 04 2022 03:46 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2022 03:02 BlackJack wrote:On March 04 2022 02:09 Mohdoo wrote:On March 03 2022 17:39 BlackJack wrote:On March 03 2022 16:35 WombaT wrote:On March 03 2022 16:15 Mohdoo wrote:On March 03 2022 16:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On March 02 2022 16:26 goiflin wrote:
So, what you're saying, is that we should not follow the recommendation set in the study you have linked, and instead should follow a recommendation set by, who?
I’m just stating the facts.The current jab is 12% effective at stopping transmission for 5-11 after five weeks.Healthy kids in this age group are at absolute minimal risk of being hospitalised, especially with the mild omicron variant. There really is no benefit to these jabs for healthy 5-11 year old kids, great for Pfizer’s profits of course though.
Edit: To go even further into the discussion about this specific paper, they even suggest that the lower dosage in the 5-11 bracket could be the cause in the first place.
Yes, I assumed that was the case.Of course higher doses of mRNA is more likely to cause side effects especially in younger age brackets which is why Moderna (which has higher mRNA load than Pfizer) has been paused for those under 30 in several countries. Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution” https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2477 So you link a study showing there is a small benefit to transmission and larger benefit to hospitalization, then go on to say “no” benefit: why? How does this make sense to you? You finish one sentence and then say the opposite in the next sentence. How is this not insane to you? What is the % chance a child suffers from a vaccine? Now compare that number to the % chance a child suffers from covid Look at which number is bigger. Choose the other one. Which part do you disagree with? Are there any models (I mean I’m 100% sure there are) as to how these varying ‘low’ numbers map out on a population level? Aside from people seemingly having a strange approach to even the numbers as they pertain to individuals, possibly to try and augment the same arguments they’ve been trying to make for years now. Even 12% isn’t nothing, the 40% number I’ve seen quite a lot but momentarily forget what it refers to in adults (is it double jab sans booster vs omicron?) is pretty damn appreciable. But what does 12% start to look like if every kiddo has it? Or every adult has even 40% reduction in transmission. I assume there’s a rather huge cascading multiplier on overall transmission rates if every interaction one is having, they themselves have a 40% reduction in the spread chance, as does everyone they are interacting with. I already posted the models the FDA used in their advisory committee meeting when they approved the vaccine for 5-11 year olds. Here it is again: https://www.fda.gov/media/153447/download Page 34 You can see, for example, for males in Scenario 1 they were estimating to prevent 67 COVID ICU admissions but cause 57 excess myocarditis ICU admissions (per million). Pretty close. Now look at the footnotes and you will realize for most of their scenarios they were predicting a 70% VE and 80% protection against hospitalization. Now Nettles is posting that after 5 weeks the VE is 12% and protection against hospitalization is 48%. When you run those models again with the new inputs I don't think you're going to get the results you're hoping for. Yes, it is close, but one of them is smaller than the other. We want smaller. Smaller good. Let me paint this in another way: 2 small boxes are put in front of you. One of them has $10 and the other has $12. Yes, $10 is pretty close to $12, but if you have the choice between the 2, it would be really weird to choose $10. So long as the two numbers are different, we have an obvious answer. Of course you conveniently ignore how going from a presumed 70% VE and 80% against hospitalization to 12% and 48% respectively would completely change those "boxes." Even worse, you seemed to have missed the opportunity to think outside the boxes and contemplate a 3rd option. You falsely assume our only 2 options are to vaccinate all children or vaccinate no children. What if I told you we are already pretty decent at identifying children that will have poor outcomes from COVID. E.g. kids with immunocompromising conditions, cancer, chronic illnesses, neurological and neuromuscular diseases, obesity, kids with trachs and feeding tubes, kids with asthma and other airway diseases etc. What if I told you that some countries have chosen a policy to recommend vaccination specifically for these kids instead of across the board vaccination for healthy children? I don't think that makes them "against the science." It just makes them capable of thinking beyond this caveman reasoning of 'vaccine good, no vaccine bad.' The existence of better and worse starting conditions does not change the fact that the vaccine has a measurable improvement. So long as that improvement exists, it’s the right choice. You are correct that some countries have chosen to just recommend it for at risk kids. Doesn’t actually change anything. May I ask what cost you have in your mind regarding the vaccine? When you make a pros and cons list, what is in your cons list? I’d like to understand your perspective better.
How exactly does having a 3rd option that is better than either of the 2 options you offered not change anything? Do you support that 3rd option of recommending vaccination for at-risk kids only, why or why not? Or do you want to vaccinate all healthy children across the board?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
