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On January 13 2022 21:34 BlackJack wrote:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1New study by Kaiser/CDC on Omicron among Kaiser patients in Southern California 53% less risk of symptomatic hospitalization 74% less risk of ICU admission 91% less risk of death 0 Omicron patients of 52,297 cases required mechanical ventilation With what I am seeing I suspect this wave in Cali may have peaked already or is peaking this week. Again, very unimpressed, basically what you'd see in a typical flu season except the flu season would last for several weeks longer. Here in California this wave was still used as justification for a fresh rollout of a bunch of new measures. More mandated boosters, more vaccine passports, etc. Word on the street is that Berkeley school district is going to require all their students to wear n95s all day lol... This wave will long have burned out before any of these measures to go into effect so it's basically for show. I guess they have to look like they are doing something to placate the COVID hysterics.
Agreed with regards to sanitation theater. In my eyes, the main issue with Omicron is delaying of other medical procedures. People not getting proper medical care either as treatment or prevention/screening is a big deal in Oregon right now. Perhaps California is just doing better than we are.
If you only have 25% as much risk of ICU admission, but 5x more cases, that still means a really overloaded healthcare system. I'm not worried about widespread death so much as I am worried about hampered medical systems generally speaking. I hope it is over soon. My friend works at a hospital which is projecting an increase in ICU admissions until January 28, at which point it is expected to start going down. But we are already getting really boned. So 15 more days of increase is a really bad situation for Oregon.
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United States10501 Posts
https://www.berkeleyschools.net/2022/01/expanded-testing-and-additional-covid-updates-pruebas-ampliadas-y-actualizaciones-adicionales-sobre-covid/
Press release of the superintendent of Berkeley Public School saying they have ordered 10,000 K95 masks and will transition all students and staff to wearing them. Personally, I wear a n95 mask all day every day so it doesn't bother me anymore, but asking children to wear them all day while at school seems ridiculous. I think the price we have asked children, adolescents and young adults to pay for this pandemic despite being the least affected by this disease is morally reprehensible. Shutting down in-person learning, masking them up, requiring them to get vaccines in places with vaccine mandates, etc. College students have it worse than anyone on some of these campuses, having to get triple vaxxed and being locked up in solitary confinement in dorms/hotels. Too bad the social development and mental health of our young people isn't nearly as important as keeping 24/7 media coverage on the running total of COVID cases/deaths.
Paul Offit is one of the most prolific pro-vaccine faces on the planet. He's devoted his life to promoting vaccines and has even invented a vaccine. He said in an article in The Atlantic that he advised his own son against getting a COVID booster because he doesn't think the benefits are worth the risks. There's still a plethora of universities requiring boosters for their students. Seems unlikely with Omicron that they will do much to control the spread and also seems likely that they will do much to preserve ICU beds since double-vaxxed college students aren't the ones taking up ICU beds in the first place. So the arguments for universal boosters seem pretty weak, but I doubt that's going to give any pause to the boomers making these decisions for young people.
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You can thank antivaxxers for a lot of the situation we're in. As an example, in BC, they're taking up 53% of the ICU despite making up 7.7% of those 12 and older. We have 89.5% of 12+ with two doses (baseline for being fully immunized)
https://twitter.com/adriandix/status/1481775322756366337?cxt=HHwWgoCq3cSzqZApAAAA
This is a sad headline that's making the news:
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-woman-with-stage-4-colon-cancer-has-life-saving-surgery-postponed-indefinitely-1.5739117
She will die because hospitals don't have room, because being unable to breathe will kill you in minutes/hours, cancer takes days to weeks.
There's a good reason I have zero sympathy for antivaxxers.
Being against mandated boosters for people in lower risk demographics I can see, because the risks/side effects don't necessarily outweigh the benefits. I do think that if you have any elderly/vulnerable people you personally interact with, you should get a booster for their protection (young kids, elderly, etc.). Mandating two dose vaccination though is entirely reasonable in my books. Even with a massively vaccinated population here in BC, our hospitals are getting overrun because of those that don't get vaccinated.
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Generally, Omicron is causing more surge of serious cases in North America than Europe. Vaccination can't be the sole differentiating factor as Canada is also facing a spike of hospitalisation despite having a high vaccination rate.
Any theories?
The puzzle of America's record Covid hospital rate https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59960949
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could be anything. diet, genetics, lifestyle.
its no secret that there is a noticeable difference in the prevalence of certain illnesses/diseases from region to region.
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My prediction is that the court will reverse the deportation order on the basis that the government delayed too long and too close to the tournament - essentially denying due process, blah blah.
I'm no legal expert, but seems like anything can be overturned by some technicality these days.
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its an absolute joke how the decision took this long, but at least they decided on the right decision. the government needs to be cleaned out though, every single politician we have is incompetent and stupid. the parties are literally irrelevant because theyre both useless.
i dont see how theres any grounds for djokovic to overturm this decision. the power of the minister is pretty broad and can be utilised at the ministers discretion. even worse is djokovic cant even battle this on legal merits because its undeniable that he has fucked up on other matters unrelated to his vaccination status.
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Both a lawyer friend and another who works in government agree that timing was always going to be difficult.
Make the decision early in the week? Oh, you didn't investigate thoroughly, interview the right people, etc.
Deliberate too long? Oh, you purposely delay to limit the person's time to reply and consult with lawyers, cause undue stress due to time pressure, etc.
Finding the 'sweet spot' in between is easier said than done.
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Wonder if they would have done this (second cancellation) if there wasn’t a federal election in 3-4 months... Scomo can puff himself up about how tough he is.
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On January 14 2022 14:52 RKC wrote:Generally, Omicron is causing more surge of serious cases in North America than Europe. Vaccination can't be the sole differentiating factor as Canada is also facing a spike of hospitalisation despite having a high vaccination rate. Any theories? The puzzle of America's record Covid hospital rate https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59960949
I checked the numbers, and tbh, it did not look that bad for Canada with only 732 in critical condition according to worldometers with a low number of deaths too.
A low vaccination rate is very easy to blame for the almost 2k daily deaths in the US, and it looks far from over.
I just got my 3rd dose with Moderna following 2x Pfizer in the summer. It will be curious to see if I can get infected at all, but if I do, it should be barely noticeable.
Of all the failures of Spain during this pandemic, the vaccine program has been a great success, and it shows what can be done when a whole country is on the same page. I have high hopes that the prize as the true return to normal life is around the corner!
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United States10501 Posts
On January 14 2022 14:52 RKC wrote:Generally, Omicron is causing more surge of serious cases in North America than Europe. Vaccination can't be the sole differentiating factor as Canada is also facing a spike of hospitalisation despite having a high vaccination rate. Any theories? The puzzle of America's record Covid hospital rate https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59960949
He attributed the rising numbers, partially, to increased testing of everyone who comes in the hospital for any reason. In the US, UK and Canada, newly admitted patients are tested for Covid regardless of what brought them to a hospital.
If other countries aren't testing all admitted patients the way that US, Canada and UK are then that would make a huge difference. Up to half of patients are getting admitted for other reasons and not because of COVID but they are found to have COVID with mandatory testing on admission.
It's interesting how little effort is made to compare the number of people in hospitals with COVID with the base rate of COVID among the general population. People eat up the fear porn that gets sold to them with articles like "40% of hospital beds being taken up by patients with COVID-19" or some shit. There are models indicating that as many as 50-80% of all people will be infected with Omicron by the time this wave subsides. Common sense dictates that even if COVID didn't cause you to become ill you'd still expect to see giant chunk of patients in the hospital with COVID-19. People don't even question it when this context is missing.
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Also, hospitals in countries with healthcare that's not for profit have no incentive to label as many cases as possible as covid. A few of my friends lost their jobs for "normal" reasons during the pandemic but of course cited the reason as Covid so they could get better unemployment...why wouldn't hospitals want to report as many cases as possible to get the most government funding?
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On January 14 2022 22:36 mierin wrote:
Also, hospitals in countries with healthcare that's not for profit have no incentive to label as many cases as possible as covid. A few of my friends lost their jobs for "normal" reasons during the pandemic but of course cited the reason as Covid so they could get better unemployment...why wouldn't hospitals want to report as many cases as possible to get the most government funding?
As long as there is no crediblr source that it’s happening, it seems to me that it’s just speculation.
The Djoko saga is turning into a fiasco for everyone. He is gonna be hugely hurt in the long run whike at the same time this soap opera is turning him into a martyr for anti vaxxers everywhere.
No one comes out if it as particularly smart.
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Northern Ireland25333 Posts
Jesus could you fuck up the Djokovic farrago any more?
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Has anyone seen an interview by Lex Fridman with Pfitzer CEO Albert Bourla? I'm a bit shocked by the answers, was trying to find a few reasons to trust the words he spoke, but found none...He was either avoiding the full answer, or was trying to sell corporate vision of some sort
I'm not antivaxer, was planning to get a shot (obviously it's not gonna be Pfitzer as in some studies it is also related with cardio side effects) but concerned with long-term side-effects and such input just does not make the choice easier :/
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
It's absolutely a good idea to be skeptical of the party that stands to gain billions from its "corvid franchise" sales when they push a narrative that promotes buying more of their product. Even if there is some merit to what they say, ignoring conflict of interest is a blind idiot approach to things like this.
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There was a press conference today in BC (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6_IkJgvgT0)
Key points:
Seems that most of the heavily vaccinated provinces (BC, Ontario, Quebec) with reasonable booster dose rollout is over the peak of Omicron, likely in the last week or so. This is confirmed by case rate, positivity rate and wastewater surveillance, so it's a reliable indicator, and it puts our curve at a similar
2/3 of those who died in the last month were unvaccinated. 7% of the 12+ population and 63% of deaths. If you adjust for age, over the last month you're ~40x more likely to die if you're unvaccinated.
Omicron is around 2/3 less likely to require ICU care in BC as compared to Delta, so that's also good I guess. It's also resulting in shorter hospital stays with around half the duration in hospital as compared to Delta. Around 50% incidental positives for covid in BC. The bigger problem is staff needing to be off due to catching covid rather than the infection control measures required in the hospital as a result of the incidentals, although there is an impact due to it.
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One thing I've been wondering about Omicron recently is simply quarantine time. Allegedly Omicron is more contagious but milder, but if you think about workforce, does that mean more people are away from work? If so, financial damages / missed opportunities could be as much as Delta? On the positive side, less fatalities, so that's always good if market doesn't overreact with the previously mentioned point about temporarily absent people due to quarantine. 
Or, maybe this isn't a big deal because we also have flu seasons and people are still absent from work...
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On January 15 2022 05:09 SC-Shield wrote:One thing I've been wondering about Omicron recently is simply quarantine time. Allegedly Omicron is more contagious but milder, but if you think about workforce, does that mean more people are away from work? If so, financial damages / missed opportunities could be as much as Delta? On the positive side, less fatalities, so that's always good if market doesn't overreact with the previously mentioned point about temporarily absent people due to quarantine. Or, maybe this isn't a big deal because we also have flu seasons and people are still absent from work...
Numbers from the press conf in BC:
Jan 3-9, 21,517 healthcare workers off sick at some point that week (all reasons), out of a total of 188k workers. Around 11% of the workforce was off sick for any reason.
Comparative numbers (restricted data set)
Jan 3-9 (or equiv in previous years)
2022, 14591
2021, 7573
2020, 8802
Basically, you have almost twice as many healthcare workers out sick as you normally do for this time of year (11% vs 6% absent).
We've done a reasonable job of blunting our covid/Omicron wave, and stretching the peak out, so we still have some capacity to absorb absences but it's definitely stretching the resources we have.
Presumably this affects other industries in the same way, and in smaller teams, can result in entire teams being nonfunctional for a week+
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EPT
