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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On January 08 2022 22:50 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2022 20:12 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 16:54 RKC wrote:
So Djokovic's exemption is based on his recent COVID infection on 16 December 2021. Is there a scientific reason why reinfection is not possible within a short period of time? Or does infection build up short-term immunity? Anyway, science aside, seems a pretty iffy policy to grant exemptions based on infection history.
As for asymptomatic people, I'm wondering whether they would tend to have the virus in their bodies dormant or low levels, that the occasional flare may trigger positive result during testing. Meaning to say, maybe there are people out there who are immune and safe from the virus and also unlikely to infect others (and there's really no point testing and counting them in any meaningful statistics). If Novak was infected with COVID on 12/16/21 it's fairly safe to say that his protection against COVID infection is significantly better than a typical double-vaxxed person that would be permitted to play. (I assume 2 shots is all that is required). There's evidence that 2-dose series offers almost no protection against being infected with Omicron, for example this preprint study from Ontario that showed 2 doses offered no protection and a booster offered only 37% protection. There were similar results in a Danish study that showed negative vaccine efficacy in double-vaxxed people. So if the goal is to prevent transmission of COVID then Novak is probably one of the safest players to have in the tournament. But if the goal is to enforce a "we got our shots so he should have to get his too" doctrine of fairness then he should obviously be banned. Your source does not conclude this in anyway what so ever. Do you have any source that backs your assumption at all?
You seriously need a source for that statement? We're seeing millions and millions of breakthrough cases of double vaxxed people right now. How many people do you think have had COVID reinfections 1 month after having COVID?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/health/covid-19-reinfection-is-rare-severe-disease-rarer/index.html
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We won't really know until about a month from now. This spike is just getting going. I dunno if we'll have good data for reinfection until this peak ends.
If my cousin got beta + delta, I wouldn't be surprised if Omicron being more infectious and breaking through vaccination means a larger % of beta infected end up getting omicron too.
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The statistics coming out from every hospital system show a wild disparity of the people who are unvaccinated being in the hospitals instead of the people vaccinated.
Like how do unvaccinated people outnumber the vaccinated 4-1 minimum despite being a distantly smaller portion of the population? Sure there are breakthrough cases of people getting every varient of covid, but that also means that they would have gotten the same cases without the vaccine. Imagine the damage having a worse case of covid but having to take it on again only months later. Long covid is the reward of the "natural immunity is best" crowd.
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Whenever I hear natural immunity brought up, I am left wondering if people are losing track of the fact that being infected is a bad thing and not desirable. The whole conversation about about evading sickness. If you get really sick, and then have immunity after, that is not a win. That is what the whole conversation is about avoiding.
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On January 09 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2022 07:35 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 22:50 JimmiC wrote:On January 08 2022 20:12 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 16:54 RKC wrote:
So Djokovic's exemption is based on his recent COVID infection on 16 December 2021. Is there a scientific reason why reinfection is not possible within a short period of time? Or does infection build up short-term immunity? Anyway, science aside, seems a pretty iffy policy to grant exemptions based on infection history.
As for asymptomatic people, I'm wondering whether they would tend to have the virus in their bodies dormant or low levels, that the occasional flare may trigger positive result during testing. Meaning to say, maybe there are people out there who are immune and safe from the virus and also unlikely to infect others (and there's really no point testing and counting them in any meaningful statistics). If Novak was infected with COVID on 12/16/21 it's fairly safe to say that his protection against COVID infection is significantly better than a typical double-vaxxed person that would be permitted to play. (I assume 2 shots is all that is required). There's evidence that 2-dose series offers almost no protection against being infected with Omicron, for example this preprint study from Ontario that showed 2 doses offered no protection and a booster offered only 37% protection. There were similar results in a Danish study that showed negative vaccine efficacy in double-vaxxed people. So if the goal is to prevent transmission of COVID then Novak is probably one of the safest players to have in the tournament. But if the goal is to enforce a "we got our shots so he should have to get his too" doctrine of fairness then he should obviously be banned. Your source does not conclude this in anyway what so ever. Do you have any source that backs your assumption at all? You seriously need a source for that statement? We're seeing millions and millions of breakthrough cases of double vaxxed people right now. How many people do you think have had COVID reinfections 1 month after having COVID? https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/health/covid-19-reinfection-is-rare-severe-disease-rarer/index.html Im needing the source that "natural" immunity alone is better. Its clear that vaccination is doing a great job of keeping severity WAY down, but not a good job of stopping infections with omicron. It also clear that having both natural and vaccination is preforming even better. What I have not read about is anything with "natural alone" doing anything, ive read nothing about it. So if yoh have source it, if you have not stop stating your assumptions as fact. Its not a good assumption considering how similar it was preforming to vaccination without boosting and worse than boosting with delta. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-hospitalizations-omicron-canada-data-vaccinated-unvaccinated/
What? Where have you been for the last 2 years? For many months in 2020 there was a debate whether COVID reinfection was even possible before it was decided that it was possible but very rare.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html
But these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections.
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On January 09 2022 07:59 Mohdoo wrote:
Whenever I hear natural immunity brought up, I am left wondering if people are losing track of the fact that being infected is a bad thing and not desirable. The whole conversation about about evading sickness. If you get really sick, and then have immunity after, that is not a win. That is what the whole conversation is about avoiding. Because the people who don't want to take the vaccine often also believe the virus isn't a big deal and then they will be fine if they get it.
That's why almost all of them change their tune and wish they had been vaccinated when they land in the hospital.
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Northern Ireland25898 Posts
I’m not 100% sure what the specific claim is, if it is what I think then I think BlackJack is OK to just throw it out without much sourcing.
I both got double jabbed, but fucking forever ago. Via a technicality/quirk I got mine before even the 60 year olds in the phased rollout. I have neglected to organise my booster, I don’t want to be sick in the middle of exams, but I’ll take it next week or so when those are clear.
l
If the claim is Djokovic who got infected a matter of weeks ago probably has better protection than me, currently, for example, I don’t see that as being at all outlandish.
It’s actually my sole real issue with a crude double vax vaccine passport that is a binary yes/no.
I’m fine to do whatever I want in terms of entry to venues, others are not. Whereas at this stage from what I’ve read I have a not inconsiderable lapsed immunity, given I both had my vaccines very, very early, and haven’t had a booster.
The when is an important aspect of being double jabbed no? Plus the uptake of a booster (not, I understand, a requirement for entry to Australia)
It’s also possible Djokovic’s recent bout with Covid was with the Omicron variant, which seems reasonably apt at punching through even recent vaccinations. So he’s conceivably much better protected against that variant than people who are relying on vaccine protection.
Anyway don’t jump down my throat for inexactitude as I’m mostly spitballing as per usual, that was what I took BJ’s post to be arguing, not a more general natural immunity > vaccine immunity.
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On January 09 2022 08:07 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On January 09 2022 07:35 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 22:50 JimmiC wrote:On January 08 2022 20:12 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 16:54 RKC wrote:
So Djokovic's exemption is based on his recent COVID infection on 16 December 2021. Is there a scientific reason why reinfection is not possible within a short period of time? Or does infection build up short-term immunity? Anyway, science aside, seems a pretty iffy policy to grant exemptions based on infection history.
As for asymptomatic people, I'm wondering whether they would tend to have the virus in their bodies dormant or low levels, that the occasional flare may trigger positive result during testing. Meaning to say, maybe there are people out there who are immune and safe from the virus and also unlikely to infect others (and there's really no point testing and counting them in any meaningful statistics). If Novak was infected with COVID on 12/16/21 it's fairly safe to say that his protection against COVID infection is significantly better than a typical double-vaxxed person that would be permitted to play. (I assume 2 shots is all that is required). There's evidence that 2-dose series offers almost no protection against being infected with Omicron, for example this preprint study from Ontario that showed 2 doses offered no protection and a booster offered only 37% protection. There were similar results in a Danish study that showed negative vaccine efficacy in double-vaxxed people. So if the goal is to prevent transmission of COVID then Novak is probably one of the safest players to have in the tournament. But if the goal is to enforce a "we got our shots so he should have to get his too" doctrine of fairness then he should obviously be banned. Your source does not conclude this in anyway what so ever. Do you have any source that backs your assumption at all? You seriously need a source for that statement? We're seeing millions and millions of breakthrough cases of double vaxxed people right now. How many people do you think have had COVID reinfections 1 month after having COVID? https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/health/covid-19-reinfection-is-rare-severe-disease-rarer/index.html Im needing the source that "natural" immunity alone is better. Its clear that vaccination is doing a great job of keeping severity WAY down, but not a good job of stopping infections with omicron. It also clear that having both natural and vaccination is preforming even better. What I have not read about is anything with "natural alone" doing anything, ive read nothing about it. So if yoh have source it, if you have not stop stating your assumptions as fact. Its not a good assumption considering how similar it was preforming to vaccination without boosting and worse than boosting with delta. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-hospitalizations-omicron-canada-data-vaccinated-unvaccinated/ What? Where have you been for the last 2 years? For many months in 2020 there was a debate whether COVID reinfection was even possible before it was decided that it was possible but very rare. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.htmlShow nested quote +But these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections. its almost like we're dealing with a new strain that is significantly more infectious that might change the math.
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On January 09 2022 08:07 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On January 09 2022 07:35 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 22:50 JimmiC wrote:On January 08 2022 20:12 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 16:54 RKC wrote:
So Djokovic's exemption is based on his recent COVID infection on 16 December 2021. Is there a scientific reason why reinfection is not possible within a short period of time? Or does infection build up short-term immunity? Anyway, science aside, seems a pretty iffy policy to grant exemptions based on infection history.
As for asymptomatic people, I'm wondering whether they would tend to have the virus in their bodies dormant or low levels, that the occasional flare may trigger positive result during testing. Meaning to say, maybe there are people out there who are immune and safe from the virus and also unlikely to infect others (and there's really no point testing and counting them in any meaningful statistics). If Novak was infected with COVID on 12/16/21 it's fairly safe to say that his protection against COVID infection is significantly better than a typical double-vaxxed person that would be permitted to play. (I assume 2 shots is all that is required). There's evidence that 2-dose series offers almost no protection against being infected with Omicron, for example this preprint study from Ontario that showed 2 doses offered no protection and a booster offered only 37% protection. There were similar results in a Danish study that showed negative vaccine efficacy in double-vaxxed people. So if the goal is to prevent transmission of COVID then Novak is probably one of the safest players to have in the tournament. But if the goal is to enforce a "we got our shots so he should have to get his too" doctrine of fairness then he should obviously be banned. Your source does not conclude this in anyway what so ever. Do you have any source that backs your assumption at all? You seriously need a source for that statement? We're seeing millions and millions of breakthrough cases of double vaxxed people right now. How many people do you think have had COVID reinfections 1 month after having COVID? https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/health/covid-19-reinfection-is-rare-severe-disease-rarer/index.html Im needing the source that "natural" immunity alone is better. Its clear that vaccination is doing a great job of keeping severity WAY down, but not a good job of stopping infections with omicron. It also clear that having both natural and vaccination is preforming even better. What I have not read about is anything with "natural alone" doing anything, ive read nothing about it. So if yoh have source it, if you have not stop stating your assumptions as fact. Its not a good assumption considering how similar it was preforming to vaccination without boosting and worse than boosting with delta. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-hospitalizations-omicron-canada-data-vaccinated-unvaccinated/ What? Where have you been for the last 2 years? For many months in 2020 there was a debate whether COVID reinfection was even possible before it was decided that it was possible but very rare. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.htmlShow nested quote +But these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections.
This is from October 2020. If we were still working with that variant, we'd be laughing about that silly ole Covid thing from a long time ago. This isn't remotely applicable to our current situation.
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Northern Ireland25898 Posts
On January 09 2022 07:56 Sermokala wrote:
The statistics coming out from every hospital system show a wild disparity of the people who are unvaccinated being in the hospitals instead of the people vaccinated.
Like how do unvaccinated people outnumber the vaccinated 4-1 minimum despite being a distantly smaller portion of the population? Sure there are breakthrough cases of people getting every varient of covid, but that also means that they would have gotten the same cases without the vaccine. Imagine the damage having a worse case of covid but having to take it on again only months later. Long covid is the reward of the "natural immunity is best" crowd.
I’d be interested to see further breakdowns into how those numbers break down via have had symptomatic/known to have had Covid and not, across those groups.
Not to make any particular point, I just haven’t really seen that breakdown.
I’m sure they’re out there somewhere, I would assume many in hospital have fallen foul or the rather bloody obvious flaw with the ‘natural immunity is best’ strategy, namely you have to get Covid and hope it doesn’t fuck you up.
In terms of say, 4 crude categories made from vaccinated/non-vaccinated being combined with previous Covid/no previous Covid.
Perhaps some of you fine folks have seen such comparisons.
It seems pretty clear that getting a vaccination is a bit of a no-brainier, but I am curious as to what the lay of the land looks like for people who won’t do so, and what long term benefits pure natural immunity confers, or where the limitations lie there.
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On January 09 2022 08:09 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2022 08:07 BlackJack wrote:On January 09 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On January 09 2022 07:35 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 22:50 JimmiC wrote:On January 08 2022 20:12 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 16:54 RKC wrote:
So Djokovic's exemption is based on his recent COVID infection on 16 December 2021. Is there a scientific reason why reinfection is not possible within a short period of time? Or does infection build up short-term immunity? Anyway, science aside, seems a pretty iffy policy to grant exemptions based on infection history.
As for asymptomatic people, I'm wondering whether they would tend to have the virus in their bodies dormant or low levels, that the occasional flare may trigger positive result during testing. Meaning to say, maybe there are people out there who are immune and safe from the virus and also unlikely to infect others (and there's really no point testing and counting them in any meaningful statistics). If Novak was infected with COVID on 12/16/21 it's fairly safe to say that his protection against COVID infection is significantly better than a typical double-vaxxed person that would be permitted to play. (I assume 2 shots is all that is required). There's evidence that 2-dose series offers almost no protection against being infected with Omicron, for example this preprint study from Ontario that showed 2 doses offered no protection and a booster offered only 37% protection. There were similar results in a Danish study that showed negative vaccine efficacy in double-vaxxed people. So if the goal is to prevent transmission of COVID then Novak is probably one of the safest players to have in the tournament. But if the goal is to enforce a "we got our shots so he should have to get his too" doctrine of fairness then he should obviously be banned. Your source does not conclude this in anyway what so ever. Do you have any source that backs your assumption at all? You seriously need a source for that statement? We're seeing millions and millions of breakthrough cases of double vaxxed people right now. How many people do you think have had COVID reinfections 1 month after having COVID? https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/health/covid-19-reinfection-is-rare-severe-disease-rarer/index.html Im needing the source that "natural" immunity alone is better. Its clear that vaccination is doing a great job of keeping severity WAY down, but not a good job of stopping infections with omicron. It also clear that having both natural and vaccination is preforming even better. What I have not read about is anything with "natural alone" doing anything, ive read nothing about it. So if yoh have source it, if you have not stop stating your assumptions as fact. Its not a good assumption considering how similar it was preforming to vaccination without boosting and worse than boosting with delta. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-hospitalizations-omicron-canada-data-vaccinated-unvaccinated/ What? Where have you been for the last 2 years? For many months in 2020 there was a debate whether COVID reinfection was even possible before it was decided that it was possible but very rare. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.htmlBut these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections. its almost like we're dealing with a new strain that is significantly more infectious that might change the math.
Again, we already see the double-vaxxed people have almost no protection against infection with Omicron. We have millions and millions of breakthrough cases, how many cases do you think exist of people being re-infected 1 month after having COVID? How much do you think the math needs to change to not be significantly better than 0%? Do you have reason to believe that this new variant will interact in a different way with our immune system where it may be possible to get re-infected month after month after month?
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On January 09 2022 08:34 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2022 07:56 Sermokala wrote:
The statistics coming out from every hospital system show a wild disparity of the people who are unvaccinated being in the hospitals instead of the people vaccinated.
Like how do unvaccinated people outnumber the vaccinated 4-1 minimum despite being a distantly smaller portion of the population? Sure there are breakthrough cases of people getting every varient of covid, but that also means that they would have gotten the same cases without the vaccine. Imagine the damage having a worse case of covid but having to take it on again only months later. Long covid is the reward of the "natural immunity is best" crowd. I’d be interested to see further breakdowns into how those numbers break down via have had symptomatic/known to have had Covid and not, across those groups. Not to make any particular point, I just haven’t really seen that breakdown. I’m sure they’re out there somewhere, I would assume many in hospital have fallen foul or the rather bloody obvious flaw with the ‘natural immunity is best’ strategy, namely you have to get Covid and hope it doesn’t fuck you up. In terms of say, 4 crude categories made from vaccinated/non-vaccinated being combined with previous Covid/no previous Covid. Perhaps some of you fine folks have seen such comparisons. It seems pretty clear that getting a vaccination is a bit of a no-brainier, but I am curious as to what the lay of the land looks like for people who won’t do so, and what long term benefits pure natural immunity confers, or where the limitations lie there.
You are right that this comparison would be very good. The issue is that we have had a few different variants and our data collection capabilities are very poor because of garbage laws surrounding medical privacy. Which by the way should have gotten tossed in the trash the moment covid started up, for covid related data.
1) We have a tragically understaffed medical data infrastructure in most countries around the world
2) We have variants which can not be reasonably compared when trying to draw correlations
3) Medical privacy laws prevent a lot of stuff from being used to build proper models. If we had some method of making all medical data anonymous, then throwing it all on a giant database, we would have some amazing findings by now. But "muh freedumb" prevails again.
4) Omicron is a really unique beast and so if we have a very underfunded staff, we may as well ignore everything before omicron and just focus on that. But look at the infection curves. It really just hasn't been long enough to draw meaningful conclusions from with all the constraints I already described. This is a situation where China is making the West look like a bunch of noobs
5) In the future, we need to have a protocol in place for taking a pickaxe to medical privacy laws
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On January 09 2022 08:39 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2022 08:09 Gorsameth wrote:On January 09 2022 08:07 BlackJack wrote:On January 09 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On January 09 2022 07:35 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 22:50 JimmiC wrote:On January 08 2022 20:12 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 16:54 RKC wrote:
So Djokovic's exemption is based on his recent COVID infection on 16 December 2021. Is there a scientific reason why reinfection is not possible within a short period of time? Or does infection build up short-term immunity? Anyway, science aside, seems a pretty iffy policy to grant exemptions based on infection history.
As for asymptomatic people, I'm wondering whether they would tend to have the virus in their bodies dormant or low levels, that the occasional flare may trigger positive result during testing. Meaning to say, maybe there are people out there who are immune and safe from the virus and also unlikely to infect others (and there's really no point testing and counting them in any meaningful statistics). If Novak was infected with COVID on 12/16/21 it's fairly safe to say that his protection against COVID infection is significantly better than a typical double-vaxxed person that would be permitted to play. (I assume 2 shots is all that is required). There's evidence that 2-dose series offers almost no protection against being infected with Omicron, for example this preprint study from Ontario that showed 2 doses offered no protection and a booster offered only 37% protection. There were similar results in a Danish study that showed negative vaccine efficacy in double-vaxxed people. So if the goal is to prevent transmission of COVID then Novak is probably one of the safest players to have in the tournament. But if the goal is to enforce a "we got our shots so he should have to get his too" doctrine of fairness then he should obviously be banned. Your source does not conclude this in anyway what so ever. Do you have any source that backs your assumption at all? You seriously need a source for that statement? We're seeing millions and millions of breakthrough cases of double vaxxed people right now. How many people do you think have had COVID reinfections 1 month after having COVID? https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/health/covid-19-reinfection-is-rare-severe-disease-rarer/index.html Im needing the source that "natural" immunity alone is better. Its clear that vaccination is doing a great job of keeping severity WAY down, but not a good job of stopping infections with omicron. It also clear that having both natural and vaccination is preforming even better. What I have not read about is anything with "natural alone" doing anything, ive read nothing about it. So if yoh have source it, if you have not stop stating your assumptions as fact. Its not a good assumption considering how similar it was preforming to vaccination without boosting and worse than boosting with delta. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-hospitalizations-omicron-canada-data-vaccinated-unvaccinated/ What? Where have you been for the last 2 years? For many months in 2020 there was a debate whether COVID reinfection was even possible before it was decided that it was possible but very rare. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.htmlBut these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections. its almost like we're dealing with a new strain that is significantly more infectious that might change the math.
Again, we already see the double-vaxxed people have almost no protection against infection with Omicron. We have millions and millions of breakthrough cases, how many cases do you think exist of people being re-infected 1 month after having COVID? How much do you think the math needs to change to not be significantly better than 0%? Do you have reason to believe that this new variant will interact in a different way with our immune system where it may be possible to get re-infected month after month after month?
vaxxed folks have much better medical outcomes than unvaxxed. You should not be saying stuff like this. A breakthrough case where someone has a sore throat can not be equated to someone on a ventilator. Plenty of states have released data showing what % of people hospitalized are vaxed or unvaxed. It is silly to say its all the same.
Edit: And just to be clear, unvaxxed folks are currently causing cancer patients and other people to not get surgeries that would drastically improve their health outcomes. Massachusetts for example ran out of ICU beds last week and is pushing out surgeries.
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On January 09 2022 08:39 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2022 08:09 Gorsameth wrote:On January 09 2022 08:07 BlackJack wrote:On January 09 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On January 09 2022 07:35 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 22:50 JimmiC wrote:On January 08 2022 20:12 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 16:54 RKC wrote:
So Djokovic's exemption is based on his recent COVID infection on 16 December 2021. Is there a scientific reason why reinfection is not possible within a short period of time? Or does infection build up short-term immunity? Anyway, science aside, seems a pretty iffy policy to grant exemptions based on infection history.
As for asymptomatic people, I'm wondering whether they would tend to have the virus in their bodies dormant or low levels, that the occasional flare may trigger positive result during testing. Meaning to say, maybe there are people out there who are immune and safe from the virus and also unlikely to infect others (and there's really no point testing and counting them in any meaningful statistics). If Novak was infected with COVID on 12/16/21 it's fairly safe to say that his protection against COVID infection is significantly better than a typical double-vaxxed person that would be permitted to play. (I assume 2 shots is all that is required). There's evidence that 2-dose series offers almost no protection against being infected with Omicron, for example this preprint study from Ontario that showed 2 doses offered no protection and a booster offered only 37% protection. There were similar results in a Danish study that showed negative vaccine efficacy in double-vaxxed people. So if the goal is to prevent transmission of COVID then Novak is probably one of the safest players to have in the tournament. But if the goal is to enforce a "we got our shots so he should have to get his too" doctrine of fairness then he should obviously be banned. Your source does not conclude this in anyway what so ever. Do you have any source that backs your assumption at all? You seriously need a source for that statement? We're seeing millions and millions of breakthrough cases of double vaxxed people right now. How many people do you think have had COVID reinfections 1 month after having COVID? https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/health/covid-19-reinfection-is-rare-severe-disease-rarer/index.html Im needing the source that "natural" immunity alone is better. Its clear that vaccination is doing a great job of keeping severity WAY down, but not a good job of stopping infections with omicron. It also clear that having both natural and vaccination is preforming even better. What I have not read about is anything with "natural alone" doing anything, ive read nothing about it. So if yoh have source it, if you have not stop stating your assumptions as fact. Its not a good assumption considering how similar it was preforming to vaccination without boosting and worse than boosting with delta. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-hospitalizations-omicron-canada-data-vaccinated-unvaccinated/ What? Where have you been for the last 2 years? For many months in 2020 there was a debate whether COVID reinfection was even possible before it was decided that it was possible but very rare. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.htmlBut these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections. its almost like we're dealing with a new strain that is significantly more infectious that might change the math. Again, we already see the double-vaxxed people have almost no protection against infection with Omicron. We have millions and millions of breakthrough cases, how many cases do you think exist of people being re-infected 1 month after having COVID? How much do you think the math needs to change to not be significantly better than 0%? Do you have reason to believe that this new variant will interact in a different way with our immune system where it may be possible to get re-infected month after month after month? Christ I thought your article was from 2021 but its 2020. Yeah no, Alpha vs Omicron is a hilarious difference in what we are dealing with.
As for your point.
I'm not a doctor, I don't know the chance after 1 month. That might be reasonably safe but 1 month is nothing when this pandemic is entering its 2nd year. And for the case of Djokovic, I don't think the merits of an exemption if you were infected a month ago are nearly as relevant to this case as the fact that I don't think anyone believes he actually had covid in December to begin with.
Plus there has been some additional information in the mean time. The federal government told the organisation of the AO that a medical exemption based on recent infection would not be enough to enter the country in November. They chose to ignore that, their (and Djokovic's) problem. https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/tennis/novak-djokovic-leaked-document-damning-proof-ta-behind-visa-fiasco/news-story/da9af538ea18d51a0d77cb5772e0eeba
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I should have known that if I check this thread my aversion to all kind of fanatics will make me post...
So lets start:
On January 05 2022 03:34 Acrofales wrote:Just in case someone took your rambling seriously, the side effects mentioned in that article about Australia are: Show nested quote +
The most frequent reported side effects include a sore arm, headache, fever and chills.
I'm guessing Australian social security is beyond crap and people had to take unpaid leave. So, yeah, Australia faces a hefty bill for that. But that is neither the case in the UK nor Poland, where you can take paid sick leave in the case of the vaccine knocking you out. Unless you're arguing that these side effects are the knock-on effects are related to these side effects. Despite these side effects being fairly common side effects for any vaccine: it is your immune response doing what it's supposed to do. Btw, try the yellow fever vaccination, it's really unpleasant. Still rather that than actually get yellow fever!
Yes, yes, you obviously right it is widely known that word "most" reduces math and numbers to rambling... especially if in the same article is "most" referring to 79000 and "overwhelming majority of"...9
On January 09 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:Im needing the source that "natural" immunity alone is better. Its clear that vaccination is doing a great job of keeping severity WAY down, but not a good job of stopping infections with omicron. It also clear that having both natural and vaccination is preforming even better. What I have not read about is anything with "natural alone" doing anything, ive read nothing about it. So if yoh have source it, if you have not stop stating your assumptions as fact. Its not a good assumption considering how similar it was preforming to vaccination without boosting and worse than boosting with delta. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-hospitalizations-omicron-canada-data-vaccinated-unvaccinated/
There you go:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00676-9/fulltext
"It also clear that having both natural and vaccination is preforming even better."
Clearly. Exempt from second research:
"In fact, one study found that previous COVID-19 was associated with increased adverse events following vaccination with the Comirnaty BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer–BioNTech)."
Obviously medical research <<<<< news article I guess??
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On January 09 2022 08:41 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2022 08:39 BlackJack wrote:On January 09 2022 08:09 Gorsameth wrote:On January 09 2022 08:07 BlackJack wrote:On January 09 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On January 09 2022 07:35 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 22:50 JimmiC wrote:On January 08 2022 20:12 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 16:54 RKC wrote:
So Djokovic's exemption is based on his recent COVID infection on 16 December 2021. Is there a scientific reason why reinfection is not possible within a short period of time? Or does infection build up short-term immunity? Anyway, science aside, seems a pretty iffy policy to grant exemptions based on infection history.
As for asymptomatic people, I'm wondering whether they would tend to have the virus in their bodies dormant or low levels, that the occasional flare may trigger positive result during testing. Meaning to say, maybe there are people out there who are immune and safe from the virus and also unlikely to infect others (and there's really no point testing and counting them in any meaningful statistics). If Novak was infected with COVID on 12/16/21 it's fairly safe to say that his protection against COVID infection is significantly better than a typical double-vaxxed person that would be permitted to play. (I assume 2 shots is all that is required). There's evidence that 2-dose series offers almost no protection against being infected with Omicron, for example this preprint study from Ontario that showed 2 doses offered no protection and a booster offered only 37% protection. There were similar results in a Danish study that showed negative vaccine efficacy in double-vaxxed people. So if the goal is to prevent transmission of COVID then Novak is probably one of the safest players to have in the tournament. But if the goal is to enforce a "we got our shots so he should have to get his too" doctrine of fairness then he should obviously be banned. Your source does not conclude this in anyway what so ever. Do you have any source that backs your assumption at all? You seriously need a source for that statement? We're seeing millions and millions of breakthrough cases of double vaxxed people right now. How many people do you think have had COVID reinfections 1 month after having COVID? https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/health/covid-19-reinfection-is-rare-severe-disease-rarer/index.html Im needing the source that "natural" immunity alone is better. Its clear that vaccination is doing a great job of keeping severity WAY down, but not a good job of stopping infections with omicron. It also clear that having both natural and vaccination is preforming even better. What I have not read about is anything with "natural alone" doing anything, ive read nothing about it. So if yoh have source it, if you have not stop stating your assumptions as fact. Its not a good assumption considering how similar it was preforming to vaccination without boosting and worse than boosting with delta. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-hospitalizations-omicron-canada-data-vaccinated-unvaccinated/ What? Where have you been for the last 2 years? For many months in 2020 there was a debate whether COVID reinfection was even possible before it was decided that it was possible but very rare. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.htmlBut these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections. its almost like we're dealing with a new strain that is significantly more infectious that might change the math.
Again, we already see the double-vaxxed people have almost no protection against infection with Omicron. We have millions and millions of breakthrough cases, how many cases do you think exist of people being re-infected 1 month after having COVID? How much do you think the math needs to change to not be significantly better than 0%? Do you have reason to believe that this new variant will interact in a different way with our immune system where it may be possible to get re-infected month after month after month? vaxxed folks have much better medical outcomes than unvaxxed. You should not be saying stuff like this. A breakthrough case where someone has a sore throat can not be equated to someone on a ventilator. Plenty of states have released data showing what % of people hospitalized are vaxed or unvaxed. It is silly to say its all the same. Edit: And just to be clear, unvaxxed folks are currently causing cancer patients and other people to not get surgeries that would drastically improve their health outcomes. Massachusetts for example ran out of ICU beds last week and is pushing out surgeries.
Why should I "not be saying stuff like this?" Are you incapable of comprehending the difference between protection against infection and protection against severe illness/death? Are you incapable of understanding that vaccines may help a lot better with the latter than with the former? I seriously don't understand this aversion to an honest and nuanced discussion but it really sours the experience of posting here.
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Northern Ireland25898 Posts
@Mohdoo, indeed.
It’s a considerable and consistent frustration of mine that much genuinely useful metadata can’t be anonymised and used in an era and an event that is absolutely the best and most benign use of such tech.
While simultaneously so much of our personal data is out there and being hawked around for commercial use.
It wouldn’t exactly be the world’s most complex process on a technical sense.
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Northern Ireland25898 Posts
On January 09 2022 09:16 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2022 08:41 Mohdoo wrote:On January 09 2022 08:39 BlackJack wrote:On January 09 2022 08:09 Gorsameth wrote:On January 09 2022 08:07 BlackJack wrote:On January 09 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On January 09 2022 07:35 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 22:50 JimmiC wrote:On January 08 2022 20:12 BlackJack wrote:On January 08 2022 16:54 RKC wrote:
So Djokovic's exemption is based on his recent COVID infection on 16 December 2021. Is there a scientific reason why reinfection is not possible within a short period of time? Or does infection build up short-term immunity? Anyway, science aside, seems a pretty iffy policy to grant exemptions based on infection history.
As for asymptomatic people, I'm wondering whether they would tend to have the virus in their bodies dormant or low levels, that the occasional flare may trigger positive result during testing. Meaning to say, maybe there are people out there who are immune and safe from the virus and also unlikely to infect others (and there's really no point testing and counting them in any meaningful statistics). If Novak was infected with COVID on 12/16/21 it's fairly safe to say that his protection against COVID infection is significantly better than a typical double-vaxxed person that would be permitted to play. (I assume 2 shots is all that is required). There's evidence that 2-dose series offers almost no protection against being infected with Omicron, for example this preprint study from Ontario that showed 2 doses offered no protection and a booster offered only 37% protection. There were similar results in a Danish study that showed negative vaccine efficacy in double-vaxxed people. So if the goal is to prevent transmission of COVID then Novak is probably one of the safest players to have in the tournament. But if the goal is to enforce a "we got our shots so he should have to get his too" doctrine of fairness then he should obviously be banned. Your source does not conclude this in anyway what so ever. Do you have any source that backs your assumption at all? You seriously need a source for that statement? We're seeing millions and millions of breakthrough cases of double vaxxed people right now. How many people do you think have had COVID reinfections 1 month after having COVID? https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/health/covid-19-reinfection-is-rare-severe-disease-rarer/index.html Im needing the source that "natural" immunity alone is better. Its clear that vaccination is doing a great job of keeping severity WAY down, but not a good job of stopping infections with omicron. It also clear that having both natural and vaccination is preforming even better. What I have not read about is anything with "natural alone" doing anything, ive read nothing about it. So if yoh have source it, if you have not stop stating your assumptions as fact. Its not a good assumption considering how similar it was preforming to vaccination without boosting and worse than boosting with delta. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-hospitalizations-omicron-canada-data-vaccinated-unvaccinated/ What? Where have you been for the last 2 years? For many months in 2020 there was a debate whether COVID reinfection was even possible before it was decided that it was possible but very rare. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.htmlBut these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections. its almost like we're dealing with a new strain that is significantly more infectious that might change the math.
Again, we already see the double-vaxxed people have almost no protection against infection with Omicron. We have millions and millions of breakthrough cases, how many cases do you think exist of people being re-infected 1 month after having COVID? How much do you think the math needs to change to not be significantly better than 0%? Do you have reason to believe that this new variant will interact in a different way with our immune system where it may be possible to get re-infected month after month after month? vaxxed folks have much better medical outcomes than unvaxxed. You should not be saying stuff like this. A breakthrough case where someone has a sore throat can not be equated to someone on a ventilator. Plenty of states have released data showing what % of people hospitalized are vaxed or unvaxed. It is silly to say its all the same. Edit: And just to be clear, unvaxxed folks are currently causing cancer patients and other people to not get surgeries that would drastically improve their health outcomes. Massachusetts for example ran out of ICU beds last week and is pushing out surgeries. Why should I "not be saying stuff like this?" Are you incapable of comprehending the difference between protection against infection and protection against severe illness/death? Are you incapable of understanding that vaccines may help a lot better with the latter than with the former? I seriously don't understand this aversion to an honest and nuanced discussion but it really sours the experience of posting here.
I don’t think Mohdoo is incapable of processing such a distinction, as per his response to my last posting.
You’re asking questions beyond the pay grade of anyone in this thread, well specifically ‘Do you have reason to believe that this new variant will interact in a different way with our immune system where it may be possible to get re-infected month after month after month?’
I don’t think we know anything to answer that question with anything other than base speculation.
It’s pretty clear the vaccines are considerably less effective against Omicron, I don’t think anyone disputes that. I would assume that, on aggregate even the low end estimates of protection add up to quite a meaningful level of protection if we’re talking about spread across whole populations. I can’t speak with any authority on how that impacts things.
But say 30-40% is relatively bad protection for an individual, but if everyone in society has that level of protection it’s still pretty impactful.
The only confirmed and consistent data we’ve been getting for quite some time is a comparison in hospitalisation rates and vaccination status.
There are other phenomena at play, stuff it would be interesting to discuss but I’ve not seen the data on that, so it’s difficult to discuss.
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EPT
