EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 285
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
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RenSC2
United States1090 Posts
"social distancing is also useless" - except all the evidence of it being useful. "the risk of death under 65 in this province is 1 in 300,000" - Blatantly wrong. Breakdowns are by 10s, so under 60, the deaths in Alberta are 16 out of 35,291 or about 1 in 2200 die, not 1 in 300,000. He's off by a factor of more than 100. Did anyone catch the guy's name? I couldn't quite make it out. I really want to look up if he's actually a doctor or just some asshole with a British accent peddling conspiracy theories. edit - JimmiC found him. His background is good. ( https://westernmedical.ca/employees/roger-g-hodkinson/ ) But yes, he's in the business of trying to discredit the medical industry. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Belisarius
Australia6233 Posts
Let's just move on. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On November 18 2020 07:15 Elroi wrote: Why do you think that? The Spanish flu was a monster compared to this. For comparison, the Spanish flu tripled the mortality here in Sweden. Corona has barely changed the meter so far. We're on track for the same excess mortality this year as 2015. To clarify, I didn't mean the death toll, I meant the severity of the virus. Sars-cov-2 is a lot worse because it's much more infectious and harder to detect. The reason why the death toll is much lower is because of better hygiene, health care and a much stronger response both nationally and globally. And that's because of advances in virology (they didn't even know viruses existed) and medicine and strong global communication, resulting in a far more effective and proportionate response to the threat. I'd bet if people back in 1918 had to pick one of the two viruses, they'd still prefer the Spanish flu. And if I had to pick today, I'd also pick the Spanish flu, too. That virus is just much easier to fight and contain, mainly because it shows symptoms so quickly. | ||
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Vivax
22323 Posts
It isn’t the flu virus that kills, but what grows in its wake. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On November 18 2020 14:56 Belisarius wrote: Hey, if a TL staffmember is going to do a horrendous driveby, we should at least be thankful he's incompetent enough to do it at the end of a page. Let's just move on. The way mods let Travis off the hook is very similar to how American police departments treat "bad apples". It makes absolutely no sense. He consistently posts nonsense like this and nothing happens. He's posted similar stuff in this thread before. TL mods have never made any indication why he is treated this way. It just happens and people accept it. It is wrong and reflects poorly. | ||
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Vivax
22323 Posts
On November 18 2020 15:41 Mohdoo wrote: The way mods let Travis off the hook is very similar to how American police departments treat "bad apples". It makes absolutely no sense. He consistently posts nonsense like this and nothing happens. He's posted similar stuff in this thread before. TL mods have never made any indication why he is treated this way. It just happens and people accept it. It is wrong and reflects poorly. Different beliefs must be punished or silenced, I read between the lines here. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On November 18 2020 15:46 Vivax wrote: Different beliefs must be punished or silenced, I read between the lines here. No, alternative facts do not exist. It is pure misinformation, as pointed out by ren. There are no 2 perspectives on the effectiveness of masks or social distancing. May as well argue there are different masses of protons. There is no disputing the underlying physics/chemistry associated. | ||
KwarK
United States43989 Posts
On November 18 2020 15:41 Mohdoo wrote: The way mods let Travis off the hook is very similar to how American police departments treat "bad apples". It makes absolutely no sense. He consistently posts nonsense like this and nothing happens. He's posted similar stuff in this thread before. TL mods have never made any indication why he is treated this way. It just happens and people accept it. It is wrong and reflects poorly. As far as I recall Travis isn’t staff but does have his own user type which gets treated by the code as a kind of emeritus staff. He’s the only user with that type and it doesn’t come with any special powers etc. I think he paid Nazgul to give him it in the early days of tl. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On November 18 2020 16:14 KwarK wrote: As far as I recall Travis isn’t staff but does have his own user type which gets treated by the code as a kind of emeritus staff. He’s the only user with that type and it doesn’t come with any special powers etc. I think he paid Nazgul to give him it in the early days of tl. I would argue "the code" is fundamentally a blemish on TL as it pertains to Travis. There's no question he is treated wildly different than other members. How many people have you seen banned from this thread for condescendingly posting crazy bullshit like he posted? Its not like its kinda bad, he's particularly bad. | ||
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Vivax
22323 Posts
On November 18 2020 16:01 Mohdoo wrote: No, alternative facts do not exist. It is pure misinformation, as pointed out by ren. There are no 2 perspectives on the effectiveness of masks or social distancing. May as well argue there are different masses of protons. There is no disputing the underlying physics/chemistry associated. My issue is that anyone can open a video conference, claim to be something and post it to youtube. But I share the belief that this crisis will be taken advantage of to radically change something about our daily lives into something more displeasant and likely orwellian. Maybe in small portions over several years. Starting from this whole contact tracing thing, to claiming vaccine works but natural immunity doesn’t. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On November 18 2020 16:21 Vivax wrote: My issue is that anyone can open a video conference, claim to be something and post it to youtube. But I share the belief that this crisis will be taken advantage of to radically change something about our daily lives into something more displeasant and likely orwellian. Maybe in small portions over several years. Starting from this whole contact tracing thing, to claiming vaccine works but natural immunity doesn’t. I agree because it would be negligent for the powers that be to not take advantage of it. I can think of a million ways I would capitalize on covid if I were the powers that be. But it is important to conclusively dismiss the nonsense. Questioning masks and distancing is fundamentally nonsense. The one thing that I am sure will occur soon enough is vaccination passes that are universally accepted. I'll likely need one to travel or do lots of other things. It would be negligent for our overlords to not do that. | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5600 Posts
1) someone claims that it is beyond absurd to think that masks doesn't help against the virus. 2) he gets called out and provides some sources. 3) Other people claim that those tests are from laboratory settings and we still don't know how that pans out in real society. 4) we end up with two (imo pretty reasonable) opposing claims: we should try masks anyway because we really think it works and it isn't so bad to use masks; or, we can't ask people to use masks because we don't know that it helps in this setting (and if it doesn't it will hurt the credibility of the authorities) and it's a real intrusion into people's lives. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria844 Posts
Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/11/17/coronavirus-immunity-may-last-years-possibly-even-decades-study-suggests/ | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22372 Posts
On November 18 2020 14:16 Mohdoo wrote: You can always PM a mod and point him/her towards the post.Travis is a great example of why it should be possible to report posts made by "staff". People have been banned for the kind of low effort conspiracy nonsense Travis posts. No effort to justify anything, just the typical low effort condescension typical of people we've seen in this thread before. | ||
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Amui
Canada10567 Posts
On November 18 2020 17:38 Elroi wrote: We have mask debates every ten pages or so here and it always goes something like this: 1) someone claims that it is beyond absurd to think that masks doesn't help against the virus. 2) he gets called out and provides some sources. 3) Other people claim that those tests are from laboratory settings and we still don't know how that pans out in real society. 4) we end up with two (imo pretty reasonable) opposing claims: we should try masks anyway because we really think it works and it isn't so bad to use masks; or, we can't ask people to use masks because we don't know that it helps in this setting (and if it doesn't it will hurt the credibility of the authorities) and it's a real intrusion into people's lives. I mean ultimately we're internet strangers who all think we know better than others for one reason or another. + Show Spoiler [logic and some math] + Assumptions 1. All expelled particles from nose/mouth have equal concentrations of covid. 2. Subject has a decently fitted mask, and is inhaling/exhaling in a way that does not force significant amounts of air through the sides. 3. No particles larger than the aperture (largest gap in weave) can exit the mask - (reality is some particles larger will come out, just not in spherical shape, although that will reform). A mask will stop all particles of a certain size and larger from exiting. The exact size will depend on the mask, but even a cloth one will have some effect. For example, a cloth mask with 300 TPI, and the fibers composing 75% of the space, maximum particle size will be ~21 microns). While this is significantly larger than what an N95 would let through, it's still a lot smaller than the approximately 500um max particles people can expel while talking, let alone other things like sneezing/coughing. A bit over 5 orders of magnitude difference in amount of virus, assuming you had one of each particle. While this doesn't stop the particles from being broken up and forced through, or evaporating off and floating in the wind, some amount of them will be stuck on the mask. This is evident by the fact that masks get humid/moist. It will also significantly reduce the velocity of any expelled particles (try blowing on a cup of water with and without a mask). Personally, I have a mech eng. degree, and took fluids and CFD, and on some basic assumptions, masks will do something. How effective it is something is can be debated, but as far as reducing covid spread goes, society is undoubtedly better off if everybody wears a mask. Anecdotally, my bouldering gym is masks on at all times, be mindful of distancing. Nobody in my climbing group(collectively spanning ~20 hours a week) have recieved covid contact tracing notifications, and the gym is still open at significantly reduced capacity. Meanwhile there are spin classes and weddings and so on without masks that have half the people infected after just a few hours. Also, in my wonderful city, separated by a single bridge are 2 regions with very different cultures, one with some of the highest covid rates in Canada(they value large family gatherings, weddings and so on), and one with some of the lowest (this one has a very stringent mask culture with an emphasis on social responsibility). Less than 30 minutes apart from town center to town center, 10 times more infections. Travel is not restricted in any way. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium5160 Posts
You can't dislodge opninions with flaunting authority or intuition or evidence based data. It doesn't matter. People cant deal with a thing that literally invisble unless you hold it up against an electron microscope. How the hell are you going to get through to people about spreading mechanism and infecivity and immumology and all that jazz when the most basic thing about the crisis, the virus itself, can't even be grasped on a conceptual level. Its actually just too abstract for people for them to ground themselves in reality, so you get hoaxes, urban legends, horror stories, conspiracy theories, etc. etc. etc. ad nauseum. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On November 18 2020 19:00 Amui wrote: I mean ultimately we're internet strangers who all think we know better than others for one reason or another. + Show Spoiler [logic and some math] + Assumptions 1. All expelled particles from nose/mouth have equal concentrations of covid. 2. Subject has a decently fitted mask, and is inhaling/exhaling in a way that does not force significant amounts of air through the sides. 3. No particles larger than the aperture (largest gap in weave) can exit the mask - (reality is some particles larger will come out, just not in spherical shape, although that will reform). A mask will stop all particles of a certain size and larger from exiting. The exact size will depend on the mask, but even a cloth one will have some effect. For example, a cloth mask with 300 TPI, and the fibers composing 75% of the space, maximum particle size will be ~21 microns). While this is significantly larger than what an N95 would let through, it's still a lot smaller than the approximately 500um max particles people can expel while talking, let alone other things like sneezing/coughing. A bit over 5 orders of magnitude difference in amount of virus, assuming you had one of each particle. While this doesn't stop the particles from being broken up and forced through, or evaporating off and floating in the wind, some amount of them will be stuck on the mask. This is evident by the fact that masks get humid/moist. It will also significantly reduce the velocity of any expelled particles (try blowing on a cup of water with and without a mask). Personally, I have a mech eng. degree, and took fluids and CFD, and on some basic assumptions, masks will do something. How effective it is something is can be debated, but as far as reducing covid spread goes, society is undoubtedly better off if everybody wears a mask. Anecdotally, my bouldering gym is masks on at all times, be mindful of distancing. Nobody in my climbing group(collectively spanning ~20 hours a week) have recieved covid contact tracing notifications, and the gym is still open at significantly reduced capacity. Meanwhile there are spin classes and weddings and so on without masks that have half the people infected after just a few hours. Also, in my wonderful city, separated by a single bridge are 2 regions with very different cultures, one with some of the highest covid rates in Canada(they value large family gatherings, weddings and so on), and one with some of the lowest (this one has a very stringent mask culture with an emphasis on social responsibility). Less than 30 minutes apart from town center to town center, 10 times more infections. Travel is not restricted in any way. While I agree with most of your comment, the part containing anecdotal examples doesn't give us any understanding of the probabilities because they're far outside of a statistically significant sample. I'm also not aware of any testing being done regarding the probabilities due to the ethical dilemma of such testing. In other words the spin classes and weddings you're talking about may well have contributed more to the spread than the bouldering gyms, but it could've easily gone the other way around simply due to chance. There could also be a great number of confounding variables in play. Those scenarios weren't scientific experiments and they don't contribute scientifically just by themselves. If the matter of safety was as simple as just wearing masks, we could all go back to work and live in peace. But that's not the recommendation from the experts because they know very well that that would result in massive spikes. There are lots of open questions regarding mask mandates other than the effectiveness of the masks. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium5160 Posts
You don't get to talk about masks in a vacuum, it does not make any sense. Depending on the type of mask you're using it's going to be more or less effective, but less effect is still better than no effect. Lets just drop this awful stupid debate. Care for your fellow human being by wearing a fucking mask in public, stop being an irrisponsible asshole because it's uncomfortable. This is not directed at you, Magic Powers. | ||
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