On February 19 2021 01:30 farvacola wrote: Bitcoin as an investment hedge does make some sense, but all this "it's not beholden to any governments" nonsense is pure ideology that ignores the inevitability of transactions as a necessary precondition for liquidity. In other words, putting money into Bitcoin is only one side of the equation and pretending that "turning Bitcoin into ____" is something that can exist without government involvement is the stuff of fantasy.
Kind of, but this missing the point. If all governments did this, then yes it could happen. No one I'm aware of is debating that.
What people are claiming is that such a situation is very unlikely.
Even the situation of say, the US government doing it is not a high probability event. It's also dubious is the government *could* do that, because BTC can be exchanged peer to peer, and then there will be black market BTC -> USD sellers.
On February 19 2021 01:16 JumboJohnson wrote: If a government inflates it's currency wouldn't bitcoin also inflate as people dump it into bitcoin?
Remember that inflation isnt how much something costs, it's the relative purchasing power of something. E.g. right now $50k USD buys a fairly nice new car. If inflation happens, the USD loses purchasing power, and might struggle to buy even a beater car.
What you're thinking of is that the price of BTC, denominated in USD would increase. This is correct. BTC could easily surge to millions of billions of USD if hyperinflation occured for the USD.
The value of BTC would NOT inflate, it would deflate. 1 BTC currently buys a quality new car. If everybody left the USD and fled to BTC, then 1 BTC might buy you a Black Lotus or a nice new mansion.
The value (energy storage) that was previously in the fiat currency would then flow to BTC, resulting in more monetary energy in the BTC network. With a capped supply of coins, that increases the energy in that monetary energy storage container.
To illustrate, let's say everyone in the world rapidly lost faith in every major asset class and decided to flee to BTC. Fiats, stocks, precious metals, etc. All of those things aside from BTC would lose their purchasing power (inflate). All of that stored monetary energy would flow into BTC (300T for a ballpark).
1 BTC is currently worth $50k 2020 USD. If all of that 300T fled to BTC, then BTC would have 300T in stored energy over 21 million coins (it's more complex but this illustrates the concept) so each coin would have a purchasing power of about $14M 2020 USD.
On February 19 2021 01:30 farvacola wrote: Bitcoin as an investment hedge does make some sense, but all this "it's not beholden to any governments" nonsense is pure ideology that ignores the inevitability of transactions as a necessary precondition for liquidity. In other words, putting money into Bitcoin is only one side of the equation and pretending that "turning Bitcoin into ____" is something that can exist without government involvement is the stuff of fantasy.
It can exist if everyone starts accepting bitcoin. "Turning bitcoin into ____" shouldn't be part of a persons dialogue if they truly believe in the value of BTC.
As long as SOME countries (not even governments) accept BTC, it is a solid value store. It has all the gold properties except it's easier to trade and easier to "smuggle" if you have to.
If someone was making the argument gold is not valuable because you can't buy groceries with it, it would be called out as non sense. BTC is the same, it's not some replacement for quick cash, it's a value store.
Pick any currency and imagine that the bills of other currencies used in the same area all have some kind of problem. One is the size of a door mat, one melts at 50C, one forces people to add strange fractions when going to the store, etc.
This is why gold occupies the place it does, not because of its more recent industrial uses, but because it has near optimal properties as an indirect exchange instrument compared to other materials. It's expensive to produce, but not overly so. It's not common enough to have people lugging kilos of it to the pawn shop but not rare enough to have people put tiny specks in a vial. It doesn't oxidize and is easy to shape. Stuff like that.
Now I haven't paid much attention to cryptocurrencies out there so correct me if I'm wrong, but BTC doesn't seem to have much more than popularity over other options. And the energy consumption is a massive unnecessary downside.
On February 20 2021 05:20 Dan HH wrote: Pick any currency and imagine that the bills of other currencies used in the same area all have some kind of problem. One is the size of a door mat, one melts at 50C, one forces people to add strange fractions when going to the store, etc.
This is why gold occupies the place it does, not because of its more recent industrial uses, but because it has near optimal properties as an indirect exchange instrument compared to other materials. It's expensive to produce, but not overly so. It's not common enough to have people lugging kilos of it to the pawn shop but not rare enough to have people put tiny specks in a vial. It doesn't oxidize and is easy to shape. Stuff like that.
Now I haven't paid much attention to cryptocurrencies out there so correct me if I'm wrong, but BTC doesn't seem to have much more than popularity over other options. And the energy consumption is a massive unnecessary downside.
The energy consumption is a downside on the good/bad for the world axis. It's a relevant, but minor, issue on the BTC moon/no moon axis.
You're definitely wrong about BTC not having more than popularity over the other options. It has noticeable advantages that some of the other coins do not, especially as it relates to the store of value aspect of money.
Moreover, I feel the need to clarify that part of the "wrong" aspect of your comment is that saying "doesn't have much more than popularity over other options" is misleading because I'd bet 90% would read that and think that's some small dismissive thing, when in reality first mover and large network effects are absolutely massive advantages.
You could maybe throw this under "popularity" but BTC is currently the only coin that is being converted to a treasury reserve asset or balance sheets for major non speculative (e.g. hedge fund) type corporations.
If you want to learn more, this is about as good of a starting point as you can get: Saylor Series
On February 20 2021 05:20 Dan HH wrote: Pick any currency and imagine that the bills of other currencies used in the same area all have some kind of problem. One is the size of a door mat, one melts at 50C, one forces people to add strange fractions when going to the store, etc.
This is why gold occupies the place it does, not because of its more recent industrial uses, but because it has near optimal properties as an indirect exchange instrument compared to other materials. It's expensive to produce, but not overly so. It's not common enough to have people lugging kilos of it to the pawn shop but not rare enough to have people put tiny specks in a vial. It doesn't oxidize and is easy to shape. Stuff like that.
Now I haven't paid much attention to cryptocurrencies out there so correct me if I'm wrong, but BTC doesn't seem to have much more than popularity over other options. And the energy consumption is a massive unnecessary downside.
The energy consumption is a downside on the good/bad for the world axis. It's a relevant, but minor, issue on the BTC moon/no moon axis.
You're definitely wrong about BTC not having more than popularity over the other options. It has noticeable advantages that some of the other coins do not, especially as it relates to the store of value aspect of money.
Moreover, I feel the need to clarify that part of the "wrong" aspect of your comment is that saying "doesn't have much more than popularity over other options" is misleading because I'd bet 90% would read that and think that's some small dismissive thing, when in reality first mover and large network effects are absolutely massive advantages.
You could maybe throw this under "popularity" but BTC is currently the only coin that is being converted to a treasury reserve asset or balance sheets for major non speculative (e.g. hedge fund) type corporations.
If you want to learn more, this is about as good of a starting point as you can get: Saylor Series
Right now, the good/bad for the world axis and the popular/unpopular with consumers axis are closer than ever before and further than at any point in the foreseeable future. If you go to the homepage of any megacorp you can think of you are bound to find some references to sustainability within 5 seconds, that's how important making people feel better (or less bad) about their purchases has become, and it's only the beginning.
BTC can't do that, it can't plant some trees in Afghanistan or build mining machines out of ocean garbage to make people feel less bad, because it's not an entity. That's why I'm wondering if there's more than inertia stopping people from adopting a "hold on, we can do this at 1/1000 the energy" view down the line.
Interesting enough that gamestop is still looking decent while 'green economy' stocks are getting hammered along with bitcoin. Maybe indicative of a shift from that sector to real estate-heavy companies? Copper and oil not mentioned often either while they are consistently rising.
“Bitfinex and Tether recklessly and unlawfully covered-up massive financial losses to keep their scheme going and protect their bottom lines,” said Attorney General James. “Tether’s claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie. These companies obscured the true risk investors faced and were operated by unlicensed and unregulated individuals and entities dealing in the darkest corners of the financial system.
This resolution makes clear that those trading virtual currencies in New York state who think they can avoid our laws cannot and will not. Last week, we sued to shut down Coinseed for its fraudulent conduct. This week, we’re taking action to end Bitfinex and Tether’s illegal activities in New York. These legal actions send a clear message that we will stand up to corporate greed whether it comes out of a traditional bank, a virtual currency trading platform, or any other type of financial institution.”
Tether volume is currently $195 billion past 24 hours so a pretty big call.
On February 24 2021 08:14 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Except the USD isn't back by anything either so how does that make it any different?
Because USD has never claimed that is backed by gold or moon rocks or whatever. The problem is that they lied about their currency having USD backing not that is or isn't backed by USD.
Fiat backed by the "full faith and credit" of a large, wealthy government is certainly more credible than fiat backed by nothing more than the full faith and credit of a sketchy company that has obvious financial troubles. Tether is little more than a zero yield junk bond.
On February 24 2021 08:54 Vivax wrote: DJIA looks like a short setup to me. Going bear for a while. Tinfoil theory wise I think a drop will be blamed on btc&bitfinex.
On February 24 2021 08:54 Vivax wrote: DJIA looks like a short setup to me. Going bear for a while. Tinfoil theory wise I think a drop will be blamed on btc&bitfinex.
BitFinex isn't allowed in the US
I read that it was banned in NY, isn't that even a new thing? Curious if this gme squeeze will be bigger than the last and if my macerich bags will print along with it. At the same time short dji with a KO@36k (looked like 3peaks + domed house to me).
EPT
