One of the things that I am not sure what to think of is the insane revenue gain from Freemium (Mobile) games. IIRC if I am not mistaken Clash Royale made more money in a year at some point then all of the top 20 PS4 games COMBINED. These games also have a considerably smaller marketing spend. The competition in these games is incredibly high (top 3 games take off most of the share). The customer lifetime value of people playing this game is insane though, whales spend a significant amount of money on it. I have spend maybe 1200 euro on Dota and I am not even a whale.
I think Nier Automata is a fantastic game, one of the best ones I have played in a while, same with Witcher 3. Yet my value in money is "only" 50-80 euros (expansions and shit from Witcher). If you consider this its not odd at all that they are transitioning to a freemium (mobile) model. The amount of resources (not just money but also developers and time) it takes to create an AAA+ game is considerable and the potential revenue seems to much less then for a freemium/mobile game.
But if this continues who will want to invest a lot of resources into games like Nier who are a one off 50-60$ purchase? These games are fantastic but to me but there are only a few of me compared to the millions of people who play Fortnite or other freemium games. The only reason seems to me is that you try to co-exist with these freemium games rather then compete with them (as you are offering something else). Yet you are very unlikely to make the same amount of revenue as these games I feel. Hell I wouldn't be suprised if the Final Fantasy mobile game (which is crap imo) already is making much more money then the latest Final Fantasy games. Turning existing IP's into mobile games have already proven to be insanely succesfull (FGO, Pokemon GO, etc). Hell I see ads for the Assasins Creed Mobile game.
From a business point of view Diablo Immortal is not weird at all and I wouldn't be suprised if it becomes very profitable too.
On January 06 2019 23:04 Kipsate wrote: One of the things that I am not sure what to think of is the insane revenue gain from Freemium (Mobile) games. IIRC if I am not mistaken Clash Royale made more money in a year at some point then all of the top 20 PS4 games COMBINED. These games also have a considerably smaller marketing spend. The competition in these games is incredibly high (top 3 games take off most of the share). The customer lifetime value of people playing this game is insane though, whales spend a significant amount of money on it. I have spend maybe 1200 euro on Dota and I am not even a whale.
I think Nier Automata is a fantastic game, one of the best ones I have played in a while, same with Witcher 3. Yet my value in money is "only" 50-80 euros (expansions and shit from Witcher). If you consider this its not odd at all that they are transitioning to a freemium (mobile) model. The amount of resources (not just money but also developers and time) it takes to create an AAA+ game is considerable and the potential revenue seems to much less then for a freemium/mobile game.
But if this continues who will want to invest a lot of resources into games like Nier who are a one off 50-60$ purchase? These games are fantastic but to me but there are only a few of me compared to the millions of people who play Fortnite or other freemium games. The only reason seems to me is that you try to co-exist with these freemium games rather then compete with them (as you are offering something else). Yet you are very unlikely to make the same amount of revenue as these games I feel. Hell I wouldn't be suprised if the Final Fantasy mobile game (which is crap imo) already is making much more money then the latest Final Fantasy games. Turning existing IP's into mobile games have already proven to be insanely succesfull (FGO, Pokemon GO, etc). Hell I see ads for the Assasins Creed Mobile game.
From a business point of view Diablo Immortal is not weird at all and I wouldn't be suprised if it becomes very profitable too.
But these games can coexist. It's not like you have to create either a mobile or a good PC(console) game. You can create BOTH. I believe many FF XIV players are playing the mobile FF games because many FF fans will play ANYTHING FF related as long as it's not a complete shit. And if you're at home you can play your PC game, but in a bus? At school/work? In a queue(of w/e)?
Many PC players don't have the issue with mobile games, they have issues with mobile games practices(most of the mobile games are freemium games!!! You don't pay 60 € and then add another microtransactions ) in fully priced games. I saw recently an article saying how much the developers pay for some things in the game. I believe the most stupid thing was a rock for 2k USD(or something similar). I mean, I love great graphics, but I doubt that I would notice a difference between a rock for 2k USD and 400 USD. And that's a big if because I usually don't look at rocks in the game unless the game is about the rocks itself This is from my perspective a complete waste but maybe I'm just old and don't understand this shit I get it, they want to create awesome games, but spending bazillion on a tree almost nobody will inspect is simply stupid. You can reduce the details on things that are not in the main focus and still be fine. And move the money to more important things, like a good story for the player 1(Bethesda, looking at you now).
But hey, let's go back to the Diablo Immortal. Let's check who's the usual attendee at Blizzcon. A computer player who's a devoted fan of Blizzard(going to Blizzcon isn't exactly cheap). And they usually own a smartphone(DON'T YOU GUYS HAVE A PHONE?!?!!??!?) and I dare to say some of them own a console gaming device Now, Blizzard was teasing their fans with a Diablo announcement. So what these devoted fans were expecting? A computer game announcement. And what did they get? That's why the shitstorm happened. This was the most out of touch gaming company moment I've ever seen and this cannot even compare to EA's If you don't like it don't buy it. as this was a total failure. Developing a mobile game is fine. I don't see any hate amongst the players of SW games on SWGOH(Galaxy of Heroes), I see hate towards EA they are not creating enough games with their omnipotent license.
Let's be fair, Blizzard(and any other company) moving their IPs into the mobile segment is fine as long as you don't piss your current fan base. And yes, they bet on the fact that some whales will pay for almost everything. The issue is that in the past years companies were ignoring their loyal fans and sometimes were going against them directly. Diablo is just the last example. (I don't count Fallout 76 as Bethesda going against their customers/fans as I think it's just Bethesda pulling their inner Bethesda on 100 %) Gaming community is in outrage and these companies can finally feel it, let's see if they're so out of touch they won't realize why or if they will be capable of identifying the issues and fix them. Personally, I doubt that.
Crash Bandicoot is now appearing in Skylanders games. Both franchises were billion dollar franchises before Crash started appearing in Skylanders games. There is no double counting involved.
ActiBlizz just lost 2 CFO's in a single week. This information seems to trouble a lot of people.
Some interesting points are made in the video. To add to it 8 year CEO Eric Hirschberg left Activision in March 2018. That is a lot of top people with deep knowledge of ATVI's financial status leaving in ~9 months.
That said, the stock price is now around $51 after dipping down to $44 on December 24th. I provided my perspective about how Spencer Nuemann's departure didn't mean a whole lot.
I guess "the street" doesn't care about the Blizzard CFO leaving either?
Is this JimmyJRaynor guy mentally Ill? Been here just for a couple of hours, but i see him posting this garbage non stop. Do you guys really want to enable him further? He already seems to be obsessed
Call of Duty EVP and General Manager Rob Kostich has been named President of Activision • Humam Sakhnini has been named President of King Digital Entertainment, having most recently served as both CFO and Chief Strategy Officer of the operating unit. • The company also named Dennis Durkin President of Activision Blizzard’s Emerging Businesses, in addition to his role as CFO
On January 09 2019 23:43 Carnivorous Sheep wrote: pls interpret this for me
Call of Duty EVP and General Manager Rob Kostich has been named President of Activision • Humam Sakhnini has been named President of King Digital Entertainment, having most recently served as both CFO and Chief Strategy Officer of the operating unit. • The company also named Dennis Durkin President of Activision Blizzard’s Emerging Businesses, in addition to his role as CFO
i'll do my best. please keep in mind this is just my view.
ATVI lost 4 top people in 9 months. Three of these people had 8+ years experience at ATVI. Right now, ATVI is promoting very experienced people from within ATVI to replace them. A substantial part of their work includes overseeing new game development.
Notice J Allen Brack ( long term WoW guy) replaced Morhaime as Prez. WoW is Blizzard's #1 money maker. Notice Kostich, named Activision Prez, was in charge of CoD. CoD is Activision's #1 money maker.
Kostich has 15 years with Activision and 10 years as CoD GM and Executive VP. Brack has many years of experience with Blizzard and many years as the top guy overseeing WoW. Durkin has been in the games industry since 2006 and was CFO of ATVI from 2012 to 2017.
All these people are probably getting big raises. However, they might not make as much as a "super sexy rising star" CEO like Spencer Neumann who arrived at ATVI from outside of the games industry. He then left for NetFlix as soon as the big money dried up at ATVI.
I don't have much opinion on the King Digital move. I may form one in the future.
As previously disclosed, on October 3, 2018 Michael Morhaime entered into an agreement with Activision Blizzard, Inc. (the ‘Company’) pursuant to which he would provide strategic advice to the Company in an advisory capacity. Mr. Morhaime’s employment with the Company as a strategic advisor will conclude on April 7, 2019.
i feel like watching ATVI's executive moves... its like watching a bad episode of Survivor.
with Maze's permission i'm posting his content in this thread. i'll form a response later today. he provides an interesting perspective.
On January 07 2019 03:21 maze. wrote: I get the feeling people are rewriting history to make Morhaime look like the greatest CEO and the people's champion. Under him we got: Real money AH in Diablo 3 D3 expansion two cancelled The Real ID for forums push and pullback Warlords of Draenor Titan scrapped
Blizzard games were the top of the line in their respective genres, but over the past years Blizzard is chasing trends rather then setting them like the modern MMO. They missed the moba goldrush and hots was too late and never got a big enough market share. Overwatch refined the tf2 formula and its a great game, but we live in a battle royal world.
2019 is going to be a dire year for Blizzard with wc3 remastered, classic wow and diablo immortal. The rest of their games are in content update mode with no major changes in sight. Even if they announce new games or ip this year at blizzcon it would mean a 2020 release at the earliest.
i felt like cancelling the D3 2nd Expansion was a bad move. D3 was finally coming into its own and really going well. Many of my hardcore D3 friends said RoS was very good and they were hoping for more.
On January 07 2019 03:21 maze. wrote: Even if they announce new games or ip this year at blizzcon it would mean a 2020 release at the earliest.
Perhaps this is a contributing factor to so many financial people leaving. They know lean times are ahead.
On January 11 2019 06:43 Carnivorous Sheep wrote: ATVI just lost destiny
Good on Bungie. I haven't played Destiny 1 nor 2, but I DO hope Bungie can finally make a good game. Either really shape up and fix Destiny 2 that it will be worth buying/playing (at least for me personally), or make a good product with Destiny 3.
BTW I also think canceling D3's 2nd Xpack was a mistake. The game became decent with the 1st Xpack and could've really become a good product with a 2nd one. Oh well.
On January 11 2019 06:43 Carnivorous Sheep wrote: ATVI just lost destiny
Good on Bungie. I haven't played Destiny 1 nor 2, but I DO hope Bungie can finally make a good game. Either really shape up and fix Destiny 2 that it will be worth buying/playing (at least for me personally), or make a good product with Destiny 3.
BTW I also think canceling D3's 2nd Xpack was a mistake. The game became decent with the 1st Xpack and could've really become a good product with a 2nd one. Oh well.
Before everyone starts jumping and celebrating, just be prepared that some of those horrible horrible damage decisions may have been done by the Bungie people and now it will be uncovered with the next releases But maybe I'm just the old grumpy person.
I think the Blizzcon giveaway of the basic game gave Destiny 2 really a second wind. A lot of ppl, myself included, bought the Forsaken Addon and probably the season pass as a result. I would have never played Destiny 2 if not for that.
But ofc I don't have any numbers and maybe it is a sinking ship. I highly doubt it though
ATVI closed yesterday at $51 and it opened at $46 and has lost another $1 in 15 minutes. ouch!
Bungie leaving ATVI might be a great marketing tool for selling Destiny3. This current announcement might be another excuse/reason to make the Destiny2 base game completely free again for a weekend.
Here is a comprehensive opinion provided by Incontrol and Artosis about cutbacks happening at Blizzard... its 6 minutes long and it has lots of facts in it as well as several opinions on things.
TL;DR : Incontrol : many employees at Blizzard thought HGC was happening. Someone very high up in management directed at the last minute that HGC is cancelled. Many Blizzard employees were just as surprised as the general public by HGC being completely cancelled. Things are still looking good for Starcraft .. but its important to remember that the time we have with it is not infinite.
Generally speaking, When a new company president takes over .. things that were true under the old Prez are not necessarily true today. The transition can be jarring even for mid-level management ... much less customers and front line employees.
Tying this back into ATVI. With so many top people leaving ATVI and being replaced ... ATVI will obviously be a very different company than it was two years ago
Reports circulating for a couple of weeks that the publisher of Maple Story, Nexon, is up for sale. Price tag is ~9 Billion US dollars, thus, the # of possible buyers is small.
The Video Game Industry might see its first decline since 1995. The decline will be small. Regardless of whether its a small decline, stable, or a small rise...the years of huge growth are over for the next few years. This is reflected in the big decline in many big game publishers stock price. The declines to giants like EA, ATVI and Nintendo are bigger than NASDAQs over all decline.
Looking at that chart, I think a big factor in the 80s decline was the advent of piracy. Piracy was not possible until the Atari 800, Apple 2, and Commodore 64 arrived in '82, '83. Piracy was rampant in the mid-80s on these machines. Piracy was non-existent for Atari 2600, Intellivision, and Colecovision.. Eventually, Nintendo stopped the bleeding from rampant piracy. Rather interesting that Nintendo to this day continues to take a very strong stand against piracy.
Looking at that chart, I think a big factor in the 80s decline was the advent of piracy. Piracy was not possible until the Atari 800, Apple 2, and Commodore 64 arrived in '82, '83. Piracy was rampant in the mid-80s on these machines. Piracy was non-existent for Atari 2600, Intellivision, and Colecovision..
I've never heard of piracy being a significant cause of the 80's video game crash. That was the era with mountains of shovelware culminating in the E.T. video game crash: en.m.wikipedia.org
The retail model was a big contributor: with all the terrible unsold games cluttering store shelves, retailers just stopped ordering video games.
It feels like our current situation of multiple sales channels and lots of indie games finding big markets means we're immune from a crash of that scale. ... not that a big publisher couldn't flame out spectacularly.
On January 22 2019 22:17 JimmyJRaynor wrote: Reports circulating for a couple of weeks that the publisher of Maple Story, Nexon, is up for sale. Price tag is ~9 Billion US dollars, thus, the # of possible buyers is small.
WCS
This is from my perspective a complete waste but maybe I'm just old and don't understand this shit 
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/bRup54R.jpg)
