US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5406
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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread | ||
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pmh
1414 Posts
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KT_Elwood
Germany1125 Posts
Trump's brain truly lives somewhere in 1981. Scenario 1: Trump now can showtrial Maduro and hang him in Parking lot, formerly kown as the WH Rose Garden. Venezuela proves somwhat troublesome and the old corrupt communist lackeys don't just vanish into thin air to make way for a Pro-Capitalist Pro US government. Trump will half heartedly order more Airstrikes to bomb venezuela into submission... or send ground troops to overtake the oil-fields... that aren't up to modern standards. Executed by the Secretary of <<<<WAR>>> ![]() When that proves to be hard and killing 50-60.000 young american soldiers, he will say "Mission accomplished" and blame Biden. Oil companies will just up their prices since Venzuela will sink into chaos and not be able to sell any oil at all. This is smart because a global Recession and rise of alternative Energy projects world wide will cap the demand for crude for the forseeable future anyway. Scenario 2: Trump will do all of the above, but successfully, shuffle Taxpayermoney into rebuilding Venezuela's Oil industry for the taking of his friends, and simply crown himself president of venezuela in 2028 | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5761 Posts
On January 04 2026 18:54 Ghostcom wrote: Yeah, I have a hard time seeing this as anything but a direct military threat towards a NATO ally. Frankly, I think it would be reasonable (and tragicomic) to invoke article 4 at this point. We should kick American troops out from Europe, cancel non-essential military equipment deals (and find alternatives to the essential ones ASAP), and decouple from American-based IT services. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14104 Posts
On January 04 2026 15:27 ETisME wrote: that will never happen, and honestly a very naive take to the whole situation. Madurors wasn't in it for the money itself, but that Russia and China etc are giving him plenty of staying power. Power comes before money/wealth. There's a tiny fraction of venezuela population who would be against this, the nation had been suffering a F ton. 2025 nobel peace prize winner herself wanted US arms intervention to force the transition. The whole thing is controversial move, but not only was it a power move against Russia and china, Russia asked US to stop targetting tanker a day before https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russia-asks-us-to-stop-pursuit-of-fleeing-oil-tanker-claims-authority/ar-AA1TpN1F?ocid=BingNewsSerp China top diplomat literally met with Maduro hours before the strike https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-condemns-us-strike-in-venezuela-hours-after-top-diplomat-met-with-maduro/ar-AA1Tw96J?ocid=BingNewsSerp It also ensures national interest of the US there in the region. Also those who are talking like the US wants the Oil and therefore they intervene, what do you think Russia and China are there for? welcome to politics in the real world. Some of you want checks and balances against the US, it's a good reminder the past couple of decades of relative peace wasn't because Russia/China was a strong check and balance against the west. It's because they had arms superiority and geopolitical power. I don't think you understand the scale of this. Money isn't power, until we're talking about oil industry money. The man himself may value the notion of being in control more than being uber wealthy but his backers would definitly be interested in being a billion dollars richer. Chevron itself makes more in revenue than the nation of Venesuela. The people would love to have a nation that is now rich in dollars and can take advantage of their natural wealth. You can afford a lot of bread and circus for the people when you've got the worlds largest reserve status. I don't know why you'd think the people would be more against america becoming friends with venesuela and offering the nation vast riches over supporting the nth coup in south america the the united states has been responsible for. I can't imagine it would be easy to find a south american who would be supportive of the banana republics. | ||
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KT_Elwood
Germany1125 Posts
On January 04 2026 22:40 maybenexttime wrote: We should kick American troops out from Europe, cancel non-essential military equipment deals (and find alternatives to the essential ones ASAP), and decouple from American-based IT services. I understand the idea and would be fully for it.. but this would tear the EU apart, NATO would cease to exist and this guy: ![]() would have won the cold thanks to agent Krasnov. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11774 Posts
On January 04 2026 23:10 KT_Elwood wrote: I understand the idea and would be fully for it.. but this would tear the EU apart, NATO would cease to exist and this guy: ![]() would have won the cold thanks to agent Krasnov. He already has. NATO (or at least the US part of it) is gone. Does anyone really believe that Trump would honor the alliance? To keep relevant and save, the EU needs to be independent of the US. We need to be able to protect ourselves, using european weapons. And we really need to be independent of US tech, because anything we are dependent on is blackmail material for the US to force us to do things we really don't want to. The US has already stopped being an ally. They might not be a full opponent yet, but that could easily happen in the next 5 years. It is sad, it is stupid. It would be much better for everyone if the US had not gone insane. But they have. So that is the reality we now need to deal with. Closing our eyes and pretending the US of today is the US of 10 years ago is not going to work. We need european weapons, we need european IT infrastructure, and we need europeans nuclear deterrent. Anything from the US must be viewed as a potential weapon that will eventually be used against us. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria837 Posts
On January 04 2026 23:18 Simberto wrote: He already has. NATO (or at least the US part of it) is gone. Does anyone really believe that Trump would honor the alliance? To keep relevant and save, the EU needs to be independent of the US. We need to be able to protect ourselves, using european weapons. And we really need to be independent of US tech, because anything we are dependent on is blackmail material for the US to force us to do things we really don't want to. The US has already stopped being an ally. They might not be a full opponent yet, but that could easily happen in the next 5 years. It is sad, it is stupid. It would be much better for everyone if the US had not gone insane. But they have. So that is the reality we now need to deal with. Closing our eyes and pretending the US of today is the US of 10 years ago is not going to work. We need european weapons, we need european IT infrastructure, and we need europeans nuclear deterrent. Anything from the US must be viewed as a potential weapon that will eventually be used against us. EU is too focused on consumer-related brands instead of IT. EU's IT industry is a dwarf compared to US and I don't see this changing anytime soon as a software engineer. ![]() These are top 15 European companies by market cap. You can see what EU actually values. Edit: There is also a popular saying: "The US innovates, China replicates, the EU regulates". I'm wondering if this is the reason tech isn't a thing here. From my point of view, EU is behind with AI while US and China make progress. I also understand your concern, but I hope US elects a better president in a few years, so I wouldn't exclude US as an ally for now. | ||
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Artesimo
Germany567 Posts
On January 04 2026 23:44 SC-Shield wrote: EU is too focused on consumer-related brands instead of IT. EU's IT industry is a dwarf compared to US and I don't see this changing anytime soon as a software engineer. ![]() These are top 15 European companies by market cap. You can see what EU actually values. Edit: There is also a popular saying: "The US innovates, China replicates, the EU regulates". I'm wondering if this is the reason tech isn't a thing here. From my point of view, EU is behind with AI while US and China make progress. I also understand your concern, but I hope US elects a better president in a few years, so I wouldn't exclude US as an ally for now. The saying is wrong imo. It is describing the state of things and not the reason for it, at least not completely. It just happens that with the latest 2 big trends, big data and AI, the countries that protect their citizens data the least and care about laws less when it comes to companies are king in those fields, thus its impossible to compete with the US and china. And if you want to seriously progress those fields, you gotta go to one of those 2 countries to do so. And its difficult to get a foothold when there is already a very dominant player, especially in a field like software where it is incredible easy to just absorb talent. In engineering and manufacturing, its never just the engineers. You got specialised machinery, specially trained people. With software you just gotta poach the engineer, and if you are the biggest you can do that more easily. And we see that in other industries as well, latest example that comes to mind, the first corona vaccine from biontech, largely developed and paid for by the european public, then partnered up with pfizer. Most americans I talk to believe the US developed it, when in reality, pfizer helped with the trials, manufacturing, and distribution (all important things, esp the trials, not discrediting that. But for the vaccine itself pfizer at best deserves partial credit imo). These kind of moves are common, but within the software world nobody in the EU can compete with the US ones when it comes to that, simply because they ain't got the dough to throw around. There are fields fields where european countries are doing well, but they are not as flashy and thus can escape getting poached off. Process mining for example has most of its significant contributions in the last decade or so coming from EU as far as I know. There is this dutch guy Wil van der Aalst who's name is impossible to avoid when going into pretty much anything relating to process mining. Its just not as big and flashy so you don't really hear about it outside the industry. Some of it will probably get superseded by AI as well now, but I firmly expect the guy to become a household name for utilising AI with process mining as well. So yeah, some regulation hinders invention, especially when it comes to AI and big data. Pretending that the EU countries can only regulate, when in reality its just the only thing you can do when someone else invents something is shortsighted. And the China part is not even worth talking about imo, its just an old stereotype. I am not a big data guy, but I heard multiple times that china is the furthest ahead there, and the reason given is that they have the most access to data in many fields. They get to care even less about the rights of their citizens. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17329 Posts
On January 04 2026 23:18 Simberto wrote: It is sad, it is stupid. It would be much better for everyone if the US had not gone insane. But they have. So that is the reality we now need to deal with. Closing our eyes and pretending the US of today is the US of 10 years ago is not going to work. meh, the USA has been this way a very long time. They brought in Werner Von Braun knowing he was deeply involved in the administration of the Mittelwerk underground rocket factory. Project Northwoods, OPeration Mocking Bird, MK Ultra, the Gulf of Tonkin ... the list goes on and on. There were no weapons in Iraq yet they fucked around in the the middle east for how long? Vietnam was a war spawning from false pretenses and every American knew it. "All In The Family" was an extremely popular TV Show. Here are the 2 big stars discussing Vietnam; it starts at 3:10. The ratings for this situation comedy were through the roof in the 70s and the same protests going on today were happening in 1971. "i think they don't like the idea of American fighting in an illegal and immoral war", Meathead Rob Reiner, 1971 about the Vietnam war on the most popular TV show of its time. The USA is a killing machine. Throughout all the interviews Trump has done about striking Venezuela he keeps hammering away about all the drugs coming from Canada. Imagine if he creates a pre-text for invading Canada and then does it. There is no country in the world that can stop him... least of all Canada. | ||
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Yurie
12062 Posts
On January 05 2026 00:50 Artesimo wrote: The saying is wrong imo. It is describing the state of things and not the reason for it, at least not completely. It just happens that with the latest 2 big trends, big data and AI, the countries that protect their citizens data the least and care about laws less when it comes to companies are king in those fields, thus its impossible to compete with the US and china. And if you want to seriously progress those fields, you gotta go to one of those 2 countries to do so. And its difficult to get a foothold when there is already a very dominant player, especially in a field like software where it is incredible easy to just absorb talent. In engineering and manufacturing, its never just the engineers. You got specialised machinery, specially trained people. With software you just gotta poach the engineer, and if you are the biggest you can do that more easily. And we see that in other industries as well, latest example that comes to mind, the first corona vaccine from biontech, largely developed and paid for by the european public, then partnered up with pfizer. Most americans I talk to believe the US developed it, when in reality, pfizer helped with the trials, manufacturing, and distribution (all important things, esp the trials, not discrediting that. But for the vaccine itself pfizer at best deserves partial credit imo). These kind of moves are common, but within the software world nobody in the EU can compete with the US ones when it comes to that, simply because they ain't got the dough to throw around. There are fields fields where european countries are doing well, but they are not as flashy and thus can escape getting poached off. Process mining for example has most of its significant contributions in the last decade or so coming from EU as far as I know. There is this dutch guy Wil van der Aalst who's name is impossible to avoid when going into pretty much anything relating to process mining. Its just not as big and flashy so you don't really hear about it outside the industry. Some of it will probably get superseded by AI as well now, but I firmly expect the guy to become a household name for utilising AI with process mining as well. So yeah, some regulation hinders invention, especially when it comes to AI and big data. Pretending that the EU countries can only regulate, when in reality its just the only thing you can do when someone else invents something is shortsighted. And the China part is not even worth talking about imo, its just an old stereotype. I am not a big data guy, but I heard multiple times that china is the furthest ahead there, and the reason given is that they have the most access to data in many fields. They get to care even less about the rights of their citizens. Two points on the topic. EU does develop IT companies, they get bought up and thus the finances keeps growing in the US. The next project getting harder to finance in EU. EU regulations are not centralized enough. You cannot implement one single system to manage user payments, fulfill legal demands, pay taxes etc and cover the entire market. You have to start on a smaller market, add the special cases for the next one, then repeat that for growth. Meaning a larger single market has the opportunity to grow faster. | ||
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Yurie
12062 Posts
On January 04 2026 18:01 Acrofales wrote: I'm not a historian, but I'm well enough travelled that I can at least take a stab at this. It was a combination of many factors. The first of which was that the industrial revolution turned economies upside down and inside out. Having colonies was still super profitable, but it wasn't absolutely necessary anymore: the really profitable step was not having the resources (for almost free) to create a product, it was having the factories to build the final product at scale. And over the course of the 20th century even that changed with global supply chains, information technology: you don't need to have the factories physically, you just need guaranteed access. This kinda does away with the need for colonies for resource extraction. It still helps a bit if you own all the raw resources, but that's where the next bit comes in, which makes it a lot more costly than it used to be. The second part is that western philosophy and learning spread across the world. Some of the first colonies to gain independence were the USA and very soon after all of South America. In a very brief nutshell, they all followed a similar pattern: European colonial elites felt they were being economically exploited, their interests were being disregarded in the Homeland, and they'd studied these new ideas from the enlightenment and French Revolution (often having been sent to Europe for an elite education). They then applied ideas such as humanism, emancipation and particularly nationalism to their native regions. The American Revolution was a bit earlier, but they can roughly be grouped together as early examples of how enlightenment ideas, when applied to colonies, lead to revolution. Education worldwide has accelerated: it is no longer the elite that learns to read, but over the course of the 20th century, schooling boomed for everybody. Ideas also evolved, and refined and this caused the further seed for decolonization of Africa and Asia: there was a growing local understanding of how European rulers were oppressing them and this fed sufficient local resistance to European rule to make it increasingly costly for European colonizers to maintain their control (insofar as at all possible in the first place, bringing us to the third reason). The third is politics. The major waves of decolonization were at the beginning of the 19th century and midway through the 20th century. Contemporary to the Napoleonic wars, and the second world war. The colonizers were embroiled in major wars for survival. Either during or in the aftermath they didn't have the military capacity or will to quell colonial revolutions. While Trump is clearly not limited by the third, the predominant thinking has been that reason (1) is sufficient to no longer really need colonies for modern prosperity, and (2) that the extra gains from having them are offset by increased costs of holding them. But clearly that thinking isn't universal. China fairly obviously disagrees. Whether it's due to sound economical reasoning or some misplaced idea of imperialist pride (similar to Russia's calculus in Ukraine)... I cannot say. Don't forget the Egyptian example where the US and Russia enforced the rules that colonies/military interventation are not acceptable. Meaning that any intervention has a high risk of being a pure loss even if you do win. Probably not the most important point, but it is also a factor in any risk calculation. Even winning you might be forced to lose, so why start? | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5761 Posts
On January 05 2026 01:01 JimmyJRaynor wrote: meh, the USA has been this way a very long time. They brought in Werner Von Braun knowing he was deeply involved in the administration of the Mittelwerk underground rocket factory. Project Northwoods, OPeration Mocking Bird, MK Ultra, the Gulf of Tonkin ... the list goes on and on. There were no weapons in Iraq yet they fucked around in the the middle east for how long? Vietnam was a war spawning from false pretenses and every American knew it. "All In The Family" was an extremely popular TV Show. Here are the 2 big stars discussing Vietnam; it starts at 3:10. The ratings for this situation comedy were through the roof in the 70s and the same protests going on today were happening in 1971. "i think they don't like the idea of American fighting in an illegal and immoral war", Meathead Rob Reiner, 1971 about the Vietnam war on the most popular TV show of its time. The USA is a killing machine. Throughout all the interviews Trump has done about striking Venezuela he keeps hammering away about all the drugs coming from Canada. Imagine if he creates a pre-text for invading Canada and then does it. There is no country in the world that can stop him... least of all Canada. This could spark a civil war in the US itself. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23714 Posts
On January 05 2026 01:21 maybenexttime wrote: This could spark a civil war in the US itself. I can't stop laughing at the idea of conquering Canada being the final straw for US civil war. I mean it sorta makes sense if you imagine the former Canadians as one of the sides of that civil war (which is hard to imagine based on my interactions with Cascadia Canadians). Canadians should probably just start figuring out what they can reasonably beg for in the future as a more official US colony. | ||
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Legan
Finland576 Posts
On January 05 2026 01:21 maybenexttime wrote: This could spark a civil war in the US itself. I would be doubtful about that. Any protesters would be reminded not to provoke the armed forces, as it would give the administration reason to use force against their political opponents. The population would also find out fast how hard it is to reach nice, clean, legitimate targets like military bases, after all, nobody wants to be a terrorist. Hard to believe that any state would physically defend their residents against the federal armed forces. National guards are not under state control, even so, there are actually many fewer state-controlled forces than people think. Current soldiers not following orders would not be enough most likely but these patriotic soldiers would most likely need to kill their fellow service members. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17693 Posts
On January 04 2026 23:44 SC-Shield wrote: EU is too focused on consumer-related brands instead of IT. EU's IT industry is a dwarf compared to US and I don't see this changing anytime soon as a software engineer. ![]() These are top 15 European companies by market cap. You can see what EU actually values. Edit: There is also a popular saying: "The US innovates, China replicates, the EU regulates". I'm wondering if this is the reason tech isn't a thing here. From my point of view, EU is behind with AI while US and China make progress. I also understand your concern, but I hope US elects a better president in a few years, so I wouldn't exclude US as an ally for now. Market cap is mostly fictional though. Stock exchange has very little to do with actual economy since it's purely speculative. Just look at the highest capped US companies like Tesla, which has insane market cap yet almost no market share and no new products in forever. NVIDIA is also just a black hole around which many other IT companies are orbiting where money is just circulating between them and they are all all-in on the AI thingie that's quite uncertain still. And if AI thingie turns out not to be a thing then boy do I feel sorry for the US economy and the savings of people that are now mostly tied to a single stock. On January 05 2026 01:01 JimmyJRaynor wrote: meh, the USA has been this way a very long time. They brought in Werner Von Braun knowing he was deeply involved in the administration of the Mittelwerk underground rocket factory. Project Northwoods, OPeration Mocking Bird, MK Ultra, the Gulf of Tonkin ... the list goes on and on. There were no weapons in Iraq yet they fucked around in the the middle east for how long? Vietnam was a war spawning from false pretenses and every American knew it. "All In The Family" was an extremely popular TV Show. Here are the 2 big stars discussing Vietnam; it starts at 3:10. The ratings for this situation comedy were through the roof in the 70s and the same protests going on today were happening in 1971. "i think they don't like the idea of American fighting in an illegal and immoral war", Meathead Rob Reiner, 1971 about the Vietnam war on the most popular TV show of its time. The USA is a killing machine. Throughout all the interviews Trump has done about striking Venezuela he keeps hammering away about all the drugs coming from Canada. Imagine if he creates a pre-text for invading Canada and then does it. There is no country in the world that can stop him... least of all Canada. Don't forget about Unit 731 and what happened to it after WW2. It's probably the sickest shit ever yet US had no qualms pardoning them and even paying them stipends... | ||
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KwarK
United States43677 Posts
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ChristianS
United States3304 Posts
On January 04 2026 18:01 Acrofales wrote: I'm not a historian, but I'm well enough travelled that I can at least take a stab at this. It was a combination of many factors. The first of which was that the industrial revolution turned economies upside down and inside out. Having colonies was still super profitable, but it wasn't absolutely necessary anymore: the really profitable step was not having the resources (for almost free) to create a product, it was having the factories to build the final product at scale. And over the course of the 20th century even that changed with global supply chains, information technology: you don't need to have the factories physically, you just need guaranteed access. This kinda does away with the need for colonies for resource extraction. It still helps a bit if you own all the raw resources, but that's where the next bit comes in, which makes it a lot more costly than it used to be. The second part is that western philosophy and learning spread across the world. Some of the first colonies to gain independence were the USA and very soon after all of South America. In a very brief nutshell, they all followed a similar pattern: European colonial elites felt they were being economically exploited, their interests were being disregarded in the Homeland, and they'd studied these new ideas from the enlightenment and French Revolution (often having been sent to Europe for an elite education). They then applied ideas such as humanism, emancipation and particularly nationalism to their native regions. The American Revolution was a bit earlier, but they can roughly be grouped together as early examples of how enlightenment ideas, when applied to colonies, lead to revolution. Education worldwide has accelerated: it is no longer the elite that learns to read, but over the course of the 20th century, schooling boomed for everybody. Ideas also evolved, and refined and this caused the further seed for decolonization of Africa and Asia: there was a growing local understanding of how European rulers were oppressing them and this fed sufficient local resistance to European rule to make it increasingly costly for European colonizers to maintain their control (insofar as at all possible in the first place, bringing us to the third reason). The third is politics. The major waves of decolonization were at the beginning of the 19th century and midway through the 20th century. Contemporary to the Napoleonic wars, and the second world war. The colonizers were embroiled in major wars for survival. Either during or in the aftermath they didn't have the military capacity or will to quell colonial revolutions. While Trump is clearly not limited by the third, the predominant thinking has been that reason (1) is sufficient to no longer really need colonies for modern prosperity, and (2) that the extra gains from having them are offset by increased costs of holding them. But clearly that thinking isn't universal. China fairly obviously disagrees. Whether it's due to sound economical reasoning or some misplaced idea of imperialist pride (similar to Russia's calculus in Ukraine)... I cannot say. Appreciate the thoughtful response (you too, Manit0u, didn’t want to quote both of you). It seems like a lot of it’s coming down to:
(I find summarizing in my own words a useful exercise in reading comprehension, let me know if you don’t think my summary was accurate.) With that in mind, what happens now? Supposing Trump follows through on the plan to occupy Venezuela, extract the oil and maybe invade some other places (where? Cuba?) do we wind up with increasingly costly wars of colonial occupation? Last time those were happening one of the primary counter-insurgency strategies was concentration camps; has that changed? And do these wars of conquest escalate into something global? | ||
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PoulsenB
Poland7733 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5761 Posts
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Yurie
12062 Posts
On January 05 2026 03:48 maybenexttime wrote: Not to mention some of the more transformative AI innovations (e.g. AlphaFold by DeepMind) were European innovations. I think that is kind of the point that was made. Europe makes a lot of innovation in IT. US buys it and their best engineers to shut down competition and scale it globally. A similar example from China could be Tiktok, where it does the same as multiple US companies and thus risks their monopolies. Gets forcefully sold by legislators enforcing it. Inside China/Russia/other dictatorships is of course worse, but it isn't a thread about them. | ||
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