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On July 14 2024 06:55 Byo wrote:
It's important to win against Trump, but is any other Democrat representing something that is worst than Trump? What wild thing would this person need to advocate for, for you to lose interest in them and support Trump. I don't think there's such a person.
Strangely enough there's never been a time when the Candidate is inconsequential to the outcome perhaps. The big danger isn't Biden voters voting for Trump, its voting not being energized enough to actually go out and vote.
And that is a big part of the problem with Biden, the lack of energy to rally people to go out and vote. The candidate is consequential in that someone with charisma helps to get people excited. And that is the one part where Trump has Biden beat, He is a rambling lying rapist but he gets people excited.
The Democrats desperately need an Obama "yes we can".
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Question, how many people think that today may well of decided the outcome of the election?
"Trump survives assassination attempt" is going to be a hell of a storyline for his campaign to run for the next 4 months.
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Northern Ireland27460 Posts
On July 14 2024 18:03 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2024 12:51 zeo wrote:On July 14 2024 11:26 c0ldfusion wrote:
You people are literal ghouls. They went off the rails long ago. Its what happens when you normalise dehumanization against people that dont think the same way as your group. When everyone you don't like is Hitler its ok to use the legal system to hunt down your political opponents, and when that doesnt work its easy for them to rationalise hunting down people with guns. Pretty much. The delusions are a necessary component. Trans people are being genocided. Black people are being genocided by the police. The unvaccinated are the only reason we still have a pandemic. Trump is going to haul you away to the camps. You have to believe big lies about how evil the other people are in order to justify the dehumanization and hatred expressed towards them. As soon as you believe that Trump is literally Hitler you can easily justify an assassination attempt towards him.
But these are just the most extreme versions of things that are broadly correct or reasonable observations.
Are trans people being genocided? Well no, but they are being legislated against, and they feature disproportionately prominently as a lightning rod for culture war vitriol.
Is Trump literally Hitler? Few people actually believe this, much as it’s frequently mockingly evoked. Has he showed worrying tendencies in an authoritarian direction? I’d say it’s hard to argue that he hasn’t, but most comparisons I see are to contemporary populist strongmen like Erdogan in Turkey or Orban in Hungary.
Etc etc
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Northern Ireland27460 Posts
On July 14 2024 18:32 Gorsameth wrote:
Question, how many people think that today may well of decided the outcome of the election?
"Trump survives assassination attempt" is going to be a hell of a storyline for his campaign to run for the next 4 months.
I’m not sure how consequential it will be, I think Trump’s base was already pretty energised and likely to turn out already.
Perhaps it’ll galvanise that yet further but I don’t really see it having a huge impact.
The battleground it seems the election will be decided is how many unenthusiastic Dems, or Biden-leaning Independents will stay at home or vote. And amongst this cohort I don’t really see an assassination attempt swaying things noticeably in a positive or negative direction.
I may be completely wrong but I don’t actually think this will move the needle much at all.
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The photos afterwards with blood running down his face and his fist in the air, with US flags in the background... those are probably worth a couple of points in swing in their own. Even the string of world leaders issuing messages of solidarity gives him a veneer of statesmanship he didn't have yesterday.
+ Show Spoiler +
I despise him, but the man knows how to stick the landing. To hand him something this potent as Biden struggles to string two sentences together... I think we're totally cooked now.
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From what I read today, Ronald Reagan had a boost in electorate after his assassination attempt by quite a lot. Probably the victim card is already played at court, so gain won't be significant but it may be just enough for a win. I expect Trump to use the victim card politically for months (court, assassination attempt, Russian interference investigation).
Sadly, I can't see how democrats can win from here unless they replace Biden with someone younger and more popular than him.
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Sure, because people who believe are on your side are shooting up LGBTQ+ night clubs, black churches and dying to covid because they don't take vaccines. It's the not fringe-right that is delusional. Sure.
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No, I think it's a done deal. He's a hero now. Someone who is willing to risk his life for the cause.
The only thing I could think of that would save this for the Democrats is if Trump suffers some kind of PTSD . I mean he looks strong on those pictures, but that could be the adrenalin and the spur of the moment. I'd imagine being centimeters from death like that could make it really hard to step in front of big crowds again.
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On July 14 2024 18:32 Gorsameth wrote:
Question, how many people think that today may well of decided the outcome of the election?
"Trump survives assassination attempt" is going to be a hell of a storyline for his campaign to run for the next 4 months.
If Trump was a "normal" Republican like Romney or Cheney, sure. But considering how polarizing he is? I don't see why this would convince somebody to vote for him that wasn't already anyway. I've also seen people saying that they're probably going to vote Biden now instead of sitting out because they're worried about an increase of Trump voters as a result of this.
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On July 14 2024 18:39 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2024 18:32 Gorsameth wrote:
Question, how many people think that today may well of decided the outcome of the election?
"Trump survives assassination attempt" is going to be a hell of a storyline for his campaign to run for the next 4 months. I’m not sure how consequential it will be, I think Trump’s base was already pretty energised and likely to turn out already. Perhaps it’ll galvanise that yet further but I don’t really see it having a huge impact. The battleground it seems the election will be decided is how many unenthusiastic Dems, or Biden-leaning Independents will stay at home or vote. And amongst this cohort I don’t really see an assassination attempt swaying things noticeably in a positive or negative direction. I may be completely wrong but I don’t actually think this will move the needle much at all.
I agree. The failed assassination attempt certainly won't be helping Biden, but I think the Trump supporters were already galvanized enough to vote for Trump, which is already reflected in the polls. I guess we'll see over the next 1-2 weeks though.
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On July 14 2024 08:59 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2024 07:50 farvacola wrote:
My gut tells me it was staged, but we shall see. Something isn’t adding up More likely just another deranged leftist who saw Trump up +6 vs Biden in latest NYT/Siena poll
That's weirdly cherry-picked. Some polls still have Biden (or other Dem alternatives) barely ahead or tied with Trump in a head-to-head race. Of course, other polls also put Trump ahead, especially when factoring in third-party candidates. https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/president/general-election
One could have just as easily asserted that it's "more likely just another deranged" conservative who thought Trump would benefit from the sympathy of a failed assassination attempt, since Trump's poll numbers didn't skyrocket from Biden's poor debate performance. It's silly to speculate in these ways, whether it's about the whole thing being staged, or the whole thing being a reaction to a few inconspicuous polls in either direction.
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I dunno man. There's a massive rally-around-the-flag effect that comes from stuff like this. It shores up a laundry-list of weaknesses for him with the demographics he needs to win.
Realistically, anyone who's still a swing voter in 2024 isn't even close to the middle. They're largely conservatives who are uncomfortable about Trump as a person, even though he's otherwise on their team. This hits bullseye after bullseye with that group.
The ex military dude who would have died for McCain but dislikes Trump's lies and authoritarianism? He sees Trump looking like a badass in front of a flag going "TERRIBLE day for DEMOCRACY, the RADICAL LEFT wants to TAKE OVER OUR COUNTRY", and he thinks... welllll.... maybe the libs are even worse after all. None of our boys have tried to shoot Biden yet.
Biden needed everything to go his way after the debate, and a failed assassination of Trump is about the worst headline I can think of. Hell, even RFK gets to make some hay from this, just as an extra kick in the nuts for team blue.
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On July 14 2024 19:53 Elroi wrote:
No, I think it's a done deal. He's a hero now. Someone who is willing to risk his life for the cause.
The only thing I could think of that would save this for the Democrats is if Trump suffers some kind of PTSD . I mean he looks strong on those pictures, but that could be the adrenalin and the spur of the moment. I'd imagine being centimeters from death like that could make it really hard to step in front of big crowds again.
The guy is 78 years old. Personally I've never been shot at, or do I know how I would react if out of the blue on a normal day someone tried to shoot me. I mean, I wouldn't have a panic attack but I'm in my mid thirties, would be shaken up but the adrenalin and my heart is pumping hard. If I'm close to 80 years old I'm probably done there on the spot, heart attack. Goner, 100%
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On July 14 2024 18:32 Gorsameth wrote:
Question, how many people think that today may well of decided the outcome of the election?
"Trump survives assassination attempt" is going to be a hell of a storyline for his campaign to run for the next 4 months.
If i had some thousands of spare money i would bet everything on Trump with around 1.5 odds.
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On July 14 2024 18:59 SC-Shield wrote:
From what I read today, Ronald Reagan had a boost in electorate after his assassination attempt by quite a lot. Probably the victim card is already played at court, so gain won't be significant but it may be just enough for a win. I expect Trump to use the victim card politically for months (court, assassination attempt, Russian interference investigation).
Sadly, I can't see how democrats can win from here unless they replace Biden with someone younger and more popular than him.
Not uncommon in american politics (north and south) for politicians surviving assassination attempts to gain a boost. Same thing happened to Bolsonaro over here
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United States44355 Posts
Americans have very short memories though.
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This is just another mass shooting.
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On July 14 2024 23:38 KT_Elwood wrote:
This is just another mass shooting.
Were there even enough casualties to rise to the level of mass shooting?
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Northern Ireland27460 Posts
On July 14 2024 23:38 KT_Elwood wrote:
This is just another mass shooting.
I know Trump isn’t in the best shape but is now really the time to draw attention to his weight?
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United States24803 Posts
On July 14 2024 23:45 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Were there even enough casualties to rise to the level of mass shooting?
It depends on which definition you use—this is borderline. Usually, a mass shooting involves attempting to shoot multiple people instead of attempting to hit one particular target, so this may not be a great example.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/default/strip/false/crop/4266x2844+0+0/resize/800/quality/85/format/webp/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8a%2F56%2F57f4c9b3401399796371d3c0b276%2Fap24195806515160.jpg)
