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On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be.
The reduction of inflation back down to the ideal percentage (which it's basically at, currently) is more Biden's fault than the inflation occurring in the first place (which was a global consequence of the pandemic). We've posted multiple sources about how the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies helped fix our inflation better and faster than essentially any other country did.
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Northern Ireland24971 Posts
Can’t disagree with that Fleet, but a la the stock market in politics often perception becomes reality.
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United States42501 Posts
Biden’s presidency has been objectively good. The American economy is booming, record employment, the lowest American military casualties in decades, huge growths in American led alliances and soft power, America once again leading the free world into peace and prosperity. It’s undeniable. Everyone wants to be America’s friend, Europe buying huge amounts of American weapons and LNG, America’s enemies are reeling.
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On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately.
Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve.
The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right.
On March 19 2024 10:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. The reduction of inflation back down to the ideal percentage (which it's basically at, currently) is more Biden's fault than the inflation occurring in the first place (which was a global consequence of the pandemic). We've posted multiple sources about how the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies helped fix our inflation better and faster than essentially any other country did.
Since that was a direct quote of me I will for the record here simply note my disagreement.
I'll say this for you, you are earnest. But man, not everything Democrat politicians and their lackeys say is true. I can't imagine still believing the "Inflation Reduction Act" was actually about inflation.
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On March 19 2024 10:13 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 08:47 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 07:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I think there's one good reason to debate him, and that is that people who are still undecided at this point strike me as the crowd who are more likely to go huh? biden's dodging? he scared? than 'well obviously there's no point in debating trump because he just lies'. If Biden was running a turn out campaign this wouldn't be as much of a problem, but since he's not, refusing to attend the debates would most likely hurt him with the very voters he's campaigning to win over. Biden probably shouldn't debate Trump, but I don't think he's really got a choice, unless he can take a significant lead in polls he's been behind Trump in for months.
Refusing to have a long scheduled debate with someone beating you in the polls for the sake of democracy also rightfully sounds silly to a lot of people, particularly those that don't vote in Democrat primaries. Just a reminder that the polls this early don't matter, and that includes recent ones where Biden is tied with Trump or even leading by the tiniest margin. The debates are scheduled for September and October, where the polls are more likely to be somewhat predictive (although, as many of us have pointed out before, it'll likely be a coinflip). Individual polls at a given moment (particularly early in the race) tell us little/nothing about what the outcome will be in November. Polls collectively at this point in the race do matter, but they also have little to no information to give us about the ultimate outcome. When I'm talking about general election polls, I'm not talking about individual polls. I'm talking about poll averages over months compared to Biden vs Trump 2020. Typically we could dismiss the previous presidential election's polls as points of comparison because they were different people (Hillary vs Trump compared to Biden vs Trump), but that's not the case this election. While I take your point about the predictive capabilities of polls this early (individually or averages), "Polls this early don't matter" is an overstatement to the point of being critically inaccurate. Besides playing an important role in plans for how and where they will spend the campaigns' resources over the coming months, they also help provide a window into how Biden v Trump 2024 is developing leading into the convention/debates compared to Biden v Trump 2020 among people being polled (so far it's pretty significantly worse). Democrats ignore/dismiss this at their own (and all of ours really) peril from my perspective.
I recognize that Biden was doing better vs. Trump at this time in 2020 ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/ ) compared to how he's doing vs. Trump right now in 2024 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ ). Taking early polling info with a giant grain of salt doesn't mean Biden can't know where to spend campaign resources (e.g., swing states and 2020's closest calls) or figure out other strategies for increasing his chances of winning. I think it's less about "ignoring/dismissing" the current polls, and more about not hyper-focusing on them or trying to jump to conclusions through tenuous extrapolation.
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On March 19 2024 10:42 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately. Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve. The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right.
You're absolutely right, but that was my intention. I think it's much more likely to convince people slightly more moderate than Biden or slightly more progressive than Biden that Biden is worth voting for, than the chance that I could convince people who are center-right or further-right to vote for someone significantly further away on the political spectrum.
Most of Biden's accomplishments would be more likely to appeal to liberals and moderates than conservatives anyway. Republicans don't value investing in infrastructure, jobs, unions, science, women, LGBTQ+, and the economy the same way that Democrats do. If the list of accomplishments I compiled ( https://tl.net/forum/general/532255-us-politics-mega-thread?page=4133#82649 ) doesn't appeal to Republicans at all, then I can't fathom what pro-Biden arguments one could make to convince Republicans that Biden deserves a second term over Trump. Are there any positives you could think of, that could persuade a Republican to vote for Biden?
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On March 19 2024 10:42 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately. Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve. The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right. Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 10:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. The reduction of inflation back down to the ideal percentage (which it's basically at, currently) is more Biden's fault than the inflation occurring in the first place (which was a global consequence of the pandemic). We've posted multiple sources about how the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies helped fix our inflation better and faster than essentially any other country did. Since that was a direct quote of me I will for the record here simply note my disagreement. I'll say this for you, you are earnest. But man, not everything Democrat politicians and their lackeys say is true. I can't imagine still believing the "Inflation Reduction Act" was actually about inflation.
If this is all you have to offer, it's simply my word against yours, and both of our words are worthless. Offer more concrete backing to your claims. Noone has any real reason to believe anyone's emotionally driven claims at this point.
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On March 19 2024 11:27 Fleetfeet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 10:42 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately. Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve. The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right. On March 19 2024 10:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. The reduction of inflation back down to the ideal percentage (which it's basically at, currently) is more Biden's fault than the inflation occurring in the first place (which was a global consequence of the pandemic). We've posted multiple sources about how the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies helped fix our inflation better and faster than essentially any other country did. Since that was a direct quote of me I will for the record here simply note my disagreement. I'll say this for you, you are earnest. But man, not everything Democrat politicians and their lackeys say is true. I can't imagine still believing the "Inflation Reduction Act" was actually about inflation. If this is all you have to offer, it's simply my word against yours, and both of our words are worthless. Offer more concrete backing to your claims. Noone has any real reason to believe anyone's emotionally driven claims at this point.
Well again that wasn't my point... BUT the fact the border is in trouble is something that everyone should know unless, I suppose, your only news was from this thread. But if you would like you can mess around here . Or google it. But presumably there wouldn't be a migrant crisis in America's big cities if there were no migrants for red states to bus there! The claim about "corporate greed" is more complicated but suffice it to say that I think one must be incredibly naïve or just gullible to think the huge rise in inflation after COVID is because of price-gouging. Again, I haven't really read any economists that aren't also Dems (like Warren) who actually try to pass that off as plausible. And you can't credit Biden for inflation going down if inflation came from corporate fat cats! Seems like the type of thing Slate or Vox would try to argue.
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On March 19 2024 11:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 10:42 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately. Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve. The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right. You're absolutely right, but that was my intention. I think it's much more likely to convince people slightly more moderate than Biden or slightly more progressive than Biden that Biden is worth voting for, than the chance that I could convince people who are center-right or further-right to vote for someone significantly further away on the political spectrum. Most of Biden's accomplishments would be more likely to appeal to liberals and moderates than conservatives anyway. Republicans don't value investing in infrastructure, jobs, unions, science, women, LGBTQ+, and the economy the same way that Democrats do. If the list of accomplishments I compiled ( https://tl.net/forum/general/532255-us-politics-mega-thread?page=4133#82649 ) doesn't appeal to Republicans at all, then I can't fathom what pro-Biden arguments one could make to convince Republicans that Biden deserves a second term over Trump. Are there any positives you could think of, that could persuade a Republican to vote for Biden?
On every single issue Biden is a Democrat, his biggest pushback is on Israel, a topic most in the GOP are united on (no one is voting on the basis of Ukraine policy, and those that say they will are liars). So that leaves people who think that a decrepit Biden will do less damage than Trump the flawed man will do, and those who are trying to make sure he loses in the misguided attempt to reduce his influence. but I don't think there are many left in either camp. Biden doesn't have any significant policy to offer they wouldn't get with Trump, except PERHAPS a raising of the SALT cap. And he can't pretend like he's the competent, calm, adult in the room anymore, either. So there really isn't much upside if you are a Republican because of ideology or policy.
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On March 19 2024 11:57 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 11:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 10:42 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately. Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve. The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right. You're absolutely right, but that was my intention. I think it's much more likely to convince people slightly more moderate than Biden or slightly more progressive than Biden that Biden is worth voting for, than the chance that I could convince people who are center-right or further-right to vote for someone significantly further away on the political spectrum. Most of Biden's accomplishments would be more likely to appeal to liberals and moderates than conservatives anyway. Republicans don't value investing in infrastructure, jobs, unions, science, women, LGBTQ+, and the economy the same way that Democrats do. If the list of accomplishments I compiled ( https://tl.net/forum/general/532255-us-politics-mega-thread?page=4133#82649 ) doesn't appeal to Republicans at all, then I can't fathom what pro-Biden arguments one could make to convince Republicans that Biden deserves a second term over Trump. Are there any positives you could think of, that could persuade a Republican to vote for Biden? On every single issue Biden is a Democrat, his biggest pushback is on Israel, a topic most in the GOP are united on (no one is voting on the basis of Ukraine policy, and those that say they will are liars). So that leaves people who think that a decrepit Biden will do less damage than Trump the flawed man will do, and those who are trying to make sure he loses in the misguided attempt to reduce his influence. but I don't think there are many left in either camp. Biden doesn't have any significant policy to offer they wouldn't get with Trump, except PERHAPS a raising of the SALT cap. And he can't pretend like he's the competent, calm, adult in the room anymore, either. So there really isn't much upside if you are a Republican because of ideology or policy.
I pretty much agree with you here. I think my list is more likely to appeal to non-conservatives.
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On March 19 2024 11:51 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 11:27 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 10:42 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately. Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve. The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right. On March 19 2024 10:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. The reduction of inflation back down to the ideal percentage (which it's basically at, currently) is more Biden's fault than the inflation occurring in the first place (which was a global consequence of the pandemic). We've posted multiple sources about how the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies helped fix our inflation better and faster than essentially any other country did. Since that was a direct quote of me I will for the record here simply note my disagreement. I'll say this for you, you are earnest. But man, not everything Democrat politicians and their lackeys say is true. I can't imagine still believing the "Inflation Reduction Act" was actually about inflation. If this is all you have to offer, it's simply my word against yours, and both of our words are worthless. Offer more concrete backing to your claims. Noone has any real reason to believe anyone's emotionally driven claims at this point. Well again that wasn't my point... BUT the fact the border is in trouble is something that everyone should know unless, I suppose, your only news was from this thread. But if you would like you can mess around here . Or google it. But presumably there wouldn't be a migrant crisis in America's big cities if there were no migrants for red states to bus there! The claim about "corporate greed" is more complicated but suffice it to say that I think one must be incredibly naïve or just gullible to think the huge rise in inflation after COVID is because of price-gouging. Again, I haven't really read any economists that aren't also Dems (like Warren) who actually try to pass that off as plausible. And you can't credit Biden for inflation going down if inflation came from corporate fat cats! Seems like the type of thing Slate or Vox would try to argue.
...But the border has BEEN in trouble. Your statement wasn't "The border is in trouble", your statement was "The border is Biden's fault".
-MY- point is if you just say empty shit like "The border is chaos" it doesn't mean anything to anyone, doubly so in the current climate where taking anyone at their word is pretty stupid. If you want to say the border is Biden's fault, do everyone a favour and back up your claims, as per the guidelines of the thread, so people can actually educate themselves and/or argue specific things.
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On March 19 2024 13:02 Fleetfeet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 11:51 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 11:27 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 10:42 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately. Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve. The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right. On March 19 2024 10:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. The reduction of inflation back down to the ideal percentage (which it's basically at, currently) is more Biden's fault than the inflation occurring in the first place (which was a global consequence of the pandemic). We've posted multiple sources about how the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies helped fix our inflation better and faster than essentially any other country did. Since that was a direct quote of me I will for the record here simply note my disagreement. I'll say this for you, you are earnest. But man, not everything Democrat politicians and their lackeys say is true. I can't imagine still believing the "Inflation Reduction Act" was actually about inflation. If this is all you have to offer, it's simply my word against yours, and both of our words are worthless. Offer more concrete backing to your claims. Noone has any real reason to believe anyone's emotionally driven claims at this point. Well again that wasn't my point... BUT the fact the border is in trouble is something that everyone should know unless, I suppose, your only news was from this thread. But if you would like you can mess around here . Or google it. But presumably there wouldn't be a migrant crisis in America's big cities if there were no migrants for red states to bus there! The claim about "corporate greed" is more complicated but suffice it to say that I think one must be incredibly naïve or just gullible to think the huge rise in inflation after COVID is because of price-gouging. Again, I haven't really read any economists that aren't also Dems (like Warren) who actually try to pass that off as plausible. And you can't credit Biden for inflation going down if inflation came from corporate fat cats! Seems like the type of thing Slate or Vox would try to argue. ...But the border has BEEN in trouble. Your statement wasn't "The border is in trouble", your statement was "The border is Biden's fault". -MY- point is if you just say empty shit like "The border is chaos" it doesn't mean anything to anyone, doubly so in the current climate where taking anyone at their word is pretty stupid. If you want to say the border is Biden's fault, do everyone a favour and back up your claims, as per the guidelines of the thread, so people can actually educate themselves and/or argue specific things.
The border has become much worse and you'd be better, if only a little bit, in trying to blame someone other than Biden rather than doubt it's happening. You remember how in Congress they were trying to do a Ukraine for border security deal? The crisis is the impetus. Or this random article I found (again, easy to find, I am frustrated because to me this is baseline level things to know and then you come in saying it seems more emotional, like IDK man I don't want to start from scratch). Or this from last year where NYC mayor Eric Adams is begging the Biden administration to help with the asylum seeker crisis (a call he has repeated). Or the fact that Biden rewrote a parole statue to (unlawfully) give parole to migrants before they even reach the border. Why would he need to do that? or you can check the CBP numbers that I linked before. John Fetterman may not be the left's favorite senator right now (what a guy he's turned out to be!) but he acknowledges what's going on at the border is a crisis for the whole country.
Fetterman, a progressive favorite, urged Democrats to acknowledge the large numbers of migrants streaming across the southern border. He cited the nearly 270,000 border encounters that U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported in September.
“Honestly, it’s astonishing. And this isn’t a Fox News kind of statistic. This is the government’s,” he said. “You essentially have Pittsburgh showing up there at the border.”
I hope this is a good start.
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On March 19 2024 10:52 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 10:13 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 08:47 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 07:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I think there's one good reason to debate him, and that is that people who are still undecided at this point strike me as the crowd who are more likely to go huh? biden's dodging? he scared? than 'well obviously there's no point in debating trump because he just lies'. If Biden was running a turn out campaign this wouldn't be as much of a problem, but since he's not, refusing to attend the debates would most likely hurt him with the very voters he's campaigning to win over. Biden probably shouldn't debate Trump, but I don't think he's really got a choice, unless he can take a significant lead in polls he's been behind Trump in for months.
Refusing to have a long scheduled debate with someone beating you in the polls for the sake of democracy also rightfully sounds silly to a lot of people, particularly those that don't vote in Democrat primaries. Just a reminder that the polls this early don't matter, and that includes recent ones where Biden is tied with Trump or even leading by the tiniest margin. The debates are scheduled for September and October, where the polls are more likely to be somewhat predictive (although, as many of us have pointed out before, it'll likely be a coinflip). Individual polls at a given moment (particularly early in the race) tell us little/nothing about what the outcome will be in November. Polls collectively at this point in the race do matter, but they also have little to no information to give us about the ultimate outcome. When I'm talking about general election polls, I'm not talking about individual polls. I'm talking about poll averages over months compared to Biden vs Trump 2020. Typically we could dismiss the previous presidential election's polls as points of comparison because they were different people (Hillary vs Trump compared to Biden vs Trump), but that's not the case this election. While I take your point about the predictive capabilities of polls this early (individually or averages), "Polls this early don't matter" is an overstatement to the point of being critically inaccurate. Besides playing an important role in plans for how and where they will spend the campaigns' resources over the coming months, they also help provide a window into how Biden v Trump 2024 is developing leading into the convention/debates compared to Biden v Trump 2020 among people being polled (so far it's pretty significantly worse). Democrats ignore/dismiss this at their own (and all of ours really) peril from my perspective. I recognize that Biden was doing better vs. Trump at this time in 2020 ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/ ) compared to how he's doing vs. Trump right now in 2024 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ ). Taking early polling info with a giant grain of salt doesn't mean Biden can't know where to spend campaign resources (e.g., swing states and 2020's closest calls) or figure out other strategies for increasing his chances of winning. I think it's less about "ignoring/dismissing" the current polls, and more about not hyper-focusing on them or trying to jump to conclusions through tenuous extrapolation.
I'm talking about the distribution of which resources (TV, surrogates, rallies, radio, internet, etc) across those states based on who they are targeting and how winnable they think they are which is an assessment heavily influenced by polling.
There's a lot that goes into planning a national campaign. The idea that polling, including at this stage, isn't an important component is just incorrect.
The only conclusion being drawn is that Biden was doing better vs. Trump at this time in 2020. The extrapolation isn't very tenuous at all, being that it bodes ominously considering how small Biden's actual win was given a much stronger position at this point and on election day.
It means Biden has to win over voters between now and November and Trump just has to hold on to what he's got while every Haley hold out he gets is just icing/can replace the people he may lose. Also worth remembering no Democrat president has ever gotten more votes in their reelection campaign, but Trump did between 2016 and 2020.
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On March 19 2024 15:09 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 10:52 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 10:13 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 08:47 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 07:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I think there's one good reason to debate him, and that is that people who are still undecided at this point strike me as the crowd who are more likely to go huh? biden's dodging? he scared? than 'well obviously there's no point in debating trump because he just lies'. If Biden was running a turn out campaign this wouldn't be as much of a problem, but since he's not, refusing to attend the debates would most likely hurt him with the very voters he's campaigning to win over. Biden probably shouldn't debate Trump, but I don't think he's really got a choice, unless he can take a significant lead in polls he's been behind Trump in for months.
Refusing to have a long scheduled debate with someone beating you in the polls for the sake of democracy also rightfully sounds silly to a lot of people, particularly those that don't vote in Democrat primaries. Just a reminder that the polls this early don't matter, and that includes recent ones where Biden is tied with Trump or even leading by the tiniest margin. The debates are scheduled for September and October, where the polls are more likely to be somewhat predictive (although, as many of us have pointed out before, it'll likely be a coinflip). Individual polls at a given moment (particularly early in the race) tell us little/nothing about what the outcome will be in November. Polls collectively at this point in the race do matter, but they also have little to no information to give us about the ultimate outcome. When I'm talking about general election polls, I'm not talking about individual polls. I'm talking about poll averages over months compared to Biden vs Trump 2020. Typically we could dismiss the previous presidential election's polls as points of comparison because they were different people (Hillary vs Trump compared to Biden vs Trump), but that's not the case this election. While I take your point about the predictive capabilities of polls this early (individually or averages), "Polls this early don't matter" is an overstatement to the point of being critically inaccurate. Besides playing an important role in plans for how and where they will spend the campaigns' resources over the coming months, they also help provide a window into how Biden v Trump 2024 is developing leading into the convention/debates compared to Biden v Trump 2020 among people being polled (so far it's pretty significantly worse). Democrats ignore/dismiss this at their own (and all of ours really) peril from my perspective. I recognize that Biden was doing better vs. Trump at this time in 2020 ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/ ) compared to how he's doing vs. Trump right now in 2024 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ ). Taking early polling info with a giant grain of salt doesn't mean Biden can't know where to spend campaign resources (e.g., swing states and 2020's closest calls) or figure out other strategies for increasing his chances of winning. I think it's less about "ignoring/dismissing" the current polls, and more about not hyper-focusing on them or trying to jump to conclusions through tenuous extrapolation. I'm talking about the distribution of which resources (TV, surrogates, rallies, radio, internet, etc) across those states based on who they are targeting and how winnable they think they are which is an assessment heavily influenced by polling. There's a lot that goes into planning a national campaign. The idea that polling, including at this stage, isn't an important component is just incorrect. The only conclusion being drawn is that Biden was doing better vs. Trump at this time in 2020. The extrapolation isn't very tenuous at all, being that it bodes ominously considering how small Biden's actual win was given a much stronger position at this point and on election day. It means Biden has to win over voters between now and November and Trump just has to hold on to what he's got while every Haley hold out he gets is just icing/can replace the people he may lose. Also worth remembering no Democrat president has ever gotten more votes in their reelection campaign, but Trump did between 2016 and 2020.
While those two observations may both be true, I don't think they actually provide any sort of meaningful predictive information. Obama lost votes in 2012 compared to 2008, but won a second term. Trump gained votes in 2020 compared to 2016, but lost a second term. Hillary had more votes but lost to Trump anyway in 2016. We know that the popular vote (unfortunately) doesn't indicate the winner; what matters is where the votes are located. While Democrats always seem to win the popular vote, I'd rather have Biden lose the popular vote in this election, if it meant him still winning the electoral college.
"The only conclusion being drawn is that Biden was doing better vs. Trump at this time in 2020."
I disagree that this is the only conclusion you were drawing. You started off this string of posts by saying "Biden probably shouldn't debate Trump, but I don't think he's really got a choice, unless he can take a significant lead in polls he's been behind Trump in for months." Deciding to risk a debate just because the polls may be this close (slightly in favor of Trump) in a few months is a much more significant call to action than merely figuring out where to best allocate advertising resources.
Unfortunately, I feel like a lot of such assertions will end up being unfalsifiable anyway, regardless of the election's outcome, because it'll likely be a coinflip. We don't know if Biden winning or losing because he focused on X or ignored Y will ever be true. It'd be nice for Biden to poll as high as possible in September and October (assuming those polls are accurate), but when you're flipping a coin just one time, there isn't a significant difference between being up 55-45 and being down 45-55.
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On March 19 2024 17:50 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 15:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 10:52 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 10:13 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 08:47 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 07:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I think there's one good reason to debate him, and that is that people who are still undecided at this point strike me as the crowd who are more likely to go huh? biden's dodging? he scared? than 'well obviously there's no point in debating trump because he just lies'. If Biden was running a turn out campaign this wouldn't be as much of a problem, but since he's not, refusing to attend the debates would most likely hurt him with the very voters he's campaigning to win over. Biden probably shouldn't debate Trump, but I don't think he's really got a choice, unless he can take a significant lead in polls he's been behind Trump in for months.
Refusing to have a long scheduled debate with someone beating you in the polls for the sake of democracy also rightfully sounds silly to a lot of people, particularly those that don't vote in Democrat primaries. Just a reminder that the polls this early don't matter, and that includes recent ones where Biden is tied with Trump or even leading by the tiniest margin. The debates are scheduled for September and October, where the polls are more likely to be somewhat predictive (although, as many of us have pointed out before, it'll likely be a coinflip). Individual polls at a given moment (particularly early in the race) tell us little/nothing about what the outcome will be in November. Polls collectively at this point in the race do matter, but they also have little to no information to give us about the ultimate outcome. When I'm talking about general election polls, I'm not talking about individual polls. I'm talking about poll averages over months compared to Biden vs Trump 2020. Typically we could dismiss the previous presidential election's polls as points of comparison because they were different people (Hillary vs Trump compared to Biden vs Trump), but that's not the case this election. While I take your point about the predictive capabilities of polls this early (individually or averages), "Polls this early don't matter" is an overstatement to the point of being critically inaccurate. Besides playing an important role in plans for how and where they will spend the campaigns' resources over the coming months, they also help provide a window into how Biden v Trump 2024 is developing leading into the convention/debates compared to Biden v Trump 2020 among people being polled (so far it's pretty significantly worse). Democrats ignore/dismiss this at their own (and all of ours really) peril from my perspective. I recognize that Biden was doing better vs. Trump at this time in 2020 ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/ ) compared to how he's doing vs. Trump right now in 2024 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ ). Taking early polling info with a giant grain of salt doesn't mean Biden can't know where to spend campaign resources (e.g., swing states and 2020's closest calls) or figure out other strategies for increasing his chances of winning. I think it's less about "ignoring/dismissing" the current polls, and more about not hyper-focusing on them or trying to jump to conclusions through tenuous extrapolation. I'm talking about the distribution of which resources (TV, surrogates, rallies, radio, internet, etc) across those states based on who they are targeting and how winnable they think they are which is an assessment heavily influenced by polling. There's a lot that goes into planning a national campaign. The idea that polling, including at this stage, isn't an important component is just incorrect. The only conclusion being drawn is that Biden was doing better vs. Trump at this time in 2020. The extrapolation isn't very tenuous at all, being that it bodes ominously considering how small Biden's actual win was given a much stronger position at this point and on election day. It means Biden has to win over voters between now and November and Trump just has to hold on to what he's got while every Haley hold out he gets is just icing/can replace the people he may lose. Also worth remembering no Democrat president has ever gotten more votes in their reelection campaign, but Trump did between 2016 and 2020. While those two observations may both be true, I don't think they actually provide any sort of meaningful predictive information. Obama lost votes in 2012 compared to 2008, but won a second term. Trump gained votes in 2020 compared to 2016, but lost a second term. Hillary had more votes but lost to Trump anyway in 2016. We know that the popular vote (unfortunately) doesn't indicate the winner; what matters is where the votes are located. While Democrats always seem to win the popular vote, I'd rather have Biden lose the popular vote in this election, if it meant him still winning the electoral college. "The only conclusion being drawn is that Biden was doing better vs. Trump at this time in 2020." I disagree that this is the only conclusion you were drawing. You started off this string of posts by saying "Biden probably shouldn't debate Trump, but I don't think he's really got a choice, unless he can take a significant lead in polls he's been behind Trump in for months." Deciding to risk a debate just because the polls may be this close (slightly in favor of Trump) in a few months is a much more significant call to action than merely figuring out where to best allocate advertising resources. Unfortunately, I feel like a lot of such assertions will end up being unfalsifiable anyway, regardless of the election's outcome, because it'll likely be a coinflip. We don't know if Biden winning or losing because he focused on X or ignored Y will ever be true. It'd be nice for Biden to poll as high as possible in September and October (assuming those polls are accurate), but when you're flipping a coin just one time, there isn't a significant difference between being up 55-45 and being down 45-55.
Biden probably shouldn't debate Trump for a lot of reasons. Whether Biden will be forced to show up to the debates or not is not a conclusion I'm drawing from current polling. If he's still behind (and been behind for several more months at that point), I'm saying I don't think he can afford the damage him not showing up to the debates would do for his hopes with "independent"/"undecided" voters in agreement with Drone's assessment:
On March 19 2024 07:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I think there's one good reason to debate him, and that is that people who are still undecided at this point strike me as the crowd who are more likely to go huh? biden's dodging? he scared? than 'well obviously there's no point in debating trump because he just lies'.
While adding that it'd be less concerning that he might not show up to the debates if he was running on turning out his base and rallying disaffected voters to his left, but he's not. He's running to win over the very people that are most likely (outside of loyal Trump supporters) to be put off by him not showing up to the debates.
If Biden's up 60-40 I don't think he'll hesitate to skip the debates, if he's still losing (even marginally/in just enough swing states), it'll be one of the hail mary plays under consideration I imagine.
Hard to say how RFK Jr. potentially qualifying for the debates could change all the dynamics as well. Biden not showing up only for Trump and RFK Jr. to debate could be devastating or inconsequential, and as you point out, we'll likely never be able to know for sure regardless.
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On March 19 2024 13:56 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 13:02 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 11:51 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 11:27 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 10:42 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately. Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve. The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right. On March 19 2024 10:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. The reduction of inflation back down to the ideal percentage (which it's basically at, currently) is more Biden's fault than the inflation occurring in the first place (which was a global consequence of the pandemic). We've posted multiple sources about how the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies helped fix our inflation better and faster than essentially any other country did. Since that was a direct quote of me I will for the record here simply note my disagreement. I'll say this for you, you are earnest. But man, not everything Democrat politicians and their lackeys say is true. I can't imagine still believing the "Inflation Reduction Act" was actually about inflation. If this is all you have to offer, it's simply my word against yours, and both of our words are worthless. Offer more concrete backing to your claims. Noone has any real reason to believe anyone's emotionally driven claims at this point. Well again that wasn't my point... BUT the fact the border is in trouble is something that everyone should know unless, I suppose, your only news was from this thread. But if you would like you can mess around here . Or google it. But presumably there wouldn't be a migrant crisis in America's big cities if there were no migrants for red states to bus there! The claim about "corporate greed" is more complicated but suffice it to say that I think one must be incredibly naïve or just gullible to think the huge rise in inflation after COVID is because of price-gouging. Again, I haven't really read any economists that aren't also Dems (like Warren) who actually try to pass that off as plausible. And you can't credit Biden for inflation going down if inflation came from corporate fat cats! Seems like the type of thing Slate or Vox would try to argue. ...But the border has BEEN in trouble. Your statement wasn't "The border is in trouble", your statement was "The border is Biden's fault". -MY- point is if you just say empty shit like "The border is chaos" it doesn't mean anything to anyone, doubly so in the current climate where taking anyone at their word is pretty stupid. If you want to say the border is Biden's fault, do everyone a favour and back up your claims, as per the guidelines of the thread, so people can actually educate themselves and/or argue specific things. The border has become much worse and you'd be better, if only a little bit, in trying to blame someone other than Biden rather than doubt it's happening. You remember how in Congress they were trying to do a Ukraine for border security deal? The crisis is the impetus. Or this random article I found (again, easy to find, I am frustrated because to me this is baseline level things to know and then you come in saying it seems more emotional, like IDK man I don't want to start from scratch). Or this from last year where NYC mayor Eric Adams is begging the Biden administration to help with the asylum seeker crisis (a call he has repeated). Or the fact that Biden rewrote a parole statue to (unlawfully) give parole to migrants before they even reach the border. Why would he need to do that? or you can check the CBP numbers that I linked before. John Fetterman may not be the left's favorite senator right now (what a guy he's turned out to be!) but he acknowledges what's going on at the border is a crisis for the whole country. Show nested quote +Fetterman, a progressive favorite, urged Democrats to acknowledge the large numbers of migrants streaming across the southern border. He cited the nearly 270,000 border encounters that U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported in September.
“Honestly, it’s astonishing. And this isn’t a Fox News kind of statistic. This is the government’s,” he said. “You essentially have Pittsburgh showing up there at the border.” I hope this is a good start.
I appreciate it! That is a good start.
I never doubted that there was a border crisis. I'm hoping my messaging never indicated that I doubted it. The things I doubt were that it's a NEW border crisis, and that it is all Biden's fault. When border policy is a major concern for republicans virtually all the time, to the point where some fucking reality TV host can campaign loudly about building a really big wall and see success from that, it's hard to tell when the wolves are attacking or when we're just yelling that they might be. I don't think it's unrealistic to hear a republican yelling about the border and just think "Here we go again", especially when the claim is as basic as 'The border is chaos'
Do bear in mind that Google et al are not unbiased themselves - me googling things about the border is likely to lead me to shit like this which, while amusing, is hardly informative. I could dive into a train of googling to figure out how based in reality your arguments were, but I'd much rather you actually support your arguments in the first place.
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On March 19 2024 13:56 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 13:02 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 11:51 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 11:27 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 10:42 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately. Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve. The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right. On March 19 2024 10:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. The reduction of inflation back down to the ideal percentage (which it's basically at, currently) is more Biden's fault than the inflation occurring in the first place (which was a global consequence of the pandemic). We've posted multiple sources about how the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies helped fix our inflation better and faster than essentially any other country did. Since that was a direct quote of me I will for the record here simply note my disagreement. I'll say this for you, you are earnest. But man, not everything Democrat politicians and their lackeys say is true. I can't imagine still believing the "Inflation Reduction Act" was actually about inflation. If this is all you have to offer, it's simply my word against yours, and both of our words are worthless. Offer more concrete backing to your claims. Noone has any real reason to believe anyone's emotionally driven claims at this point. Well again that wasn't my point... BUT the fact the border is in trouble is something that everyone should know unless, I suppose, your only news was from this thread. But if you would like you can mess around here . Or google it. But presumably there wouldn't be a migrant crisis in America's big cities if there were no migrants for red states to bus there! The claim about "corporate greed" is more complicated but suffice it to say that I think one must be incredibly naïve or just gullible to think the huge rise in inflation after COVID is because of price-gouging. Again, I haven't really read any economists that aren't also Dems (like Warren) who actually try to pass that off as plausible. And you can't credit Biden for inflation going down if inflation came from corporate fat cats! Seems like the type of thing Slate or Vox would try to argue. ...But the border has BEEN in trouble. Your statement wasn't "The border is in trouble", your statement was "The border is Biden's fault". -MY- point is if you just say empty shit like "The border is chaos" it doesn't mean anything to anyone, doubly so in the current climate where taking anyone at their word is pretty stupid. If you want to say the border is Biden's fault, do everyone a favour and back up your claims, as per the guidelines of the thread, so people can actually educate themselves and/or argue specific things. The border has become much worse and you'd be better, if only a little bit, in trying to blame someone other than Biden rather than doubt it's happening. You remember how in Congress they were trying to do a Ukraine for border security deal? The crisis is the impetus. Or this random article I found (again, easy to find, I am frustrated because to me this is baseline level things to know and then you come in saying it seems more emotional, like IDK man I don't want to start from scratch). Or this from last year where NYC mayor Eric Adams is begging the Biden administration to help with the asylum seeker crisis (a call he has repeated). Or the fact that Biden rewrote a parole statue to (unlawfully) give parole to migrants before they even reach the border. Why would he need to do that? or you can check the CBP numbers that I linked before. John Fetterman may not be the left's favorite senator right now (what a guy he's turned out to be!) but he acknowledges what's going on at the border is a crisis for the whole country. Show nested quote +Fetterman, a progressive favorite, urged Democrats to acknowledge the large numbers of migrants streaming across the southern border. He cited the nearly 270,000 border encounters that U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported in September.
“Honestly, it’s astonishing. And this isn’t a Fox News kind of statistic. This is the government’s,” he said. “You essentially have Pittsburgh showing up there at the border.” I hope this is a good start.
Uhm, isn't it the Republicans that hold back the border bill? Which was pretty much drawn up according to many of their wishes?
What do you want Democrats to do? They are not the ones standing in the way. It's the GOP itself that needs this issue to farm for outrage/votes.
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It appears that Republicans don't actually want to solve the border crisis; they would prefer the border crisis exist forever, so that they can always campaign against it. They don't want to make the same mistake they did with abortion, where they accidentally walked the walk instead of merely talking the talk, which backfired immensely in the elections that followed.
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Norway28632 Posts
I think if there are scheduled debates happening in September and October and we're in late August and Trump goes 'I'm looking forward to these debates because the American people deserve to know where I and Biden stand on different issues and how mentally acute we are' and Biden goes 'I'm not going do debate this clown because he's a liar and it's pointless' then that's not a good look for Biden.
Biden needs to participate in the debate because he needs to show that he's capable of being coherent in a debate setting. People who voted for him 4 years ago generally aren't going to sit out this one because they're unhappy about his policies or political choices (maybe some of the more left-leaning crowd over Israel but I question how many these really are). However, I have the impression that a lot of people - partially because of social media (and even entirely fake videos that circulate) - but also because of stuff like him mentioning Mitterand and Helmut Kohl, question whether they want to vote for him again because there's an impression that he's senile/turning senile. These are people that can easily be convinced that he's not that far gone, as long as he's able to give a good performance in a debate setting.
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On March 19 2024 13:02 Fleetfeet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 11:51 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 11:27 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 10:42 Introvert wrote:On March 19 2024 10:26 Fleetfeet wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up. COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was. Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell. The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall. I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately. Well first, the primary point was that from the normie point of view, things felt a lot better when Trump was president. All the excuses aside, things didn't cost so much, and we actually had control over the border. On those topics, to the contrary I don't know of any serious economists who are actually blaming cooperate greed, that's the type of dumb crap Liz Warren says. Injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing supply seems more likely...and the border is inarguably worse than when Trump was president. Because Orange Man Bad, Biden undid a bunch of Trump's policies and now we've had record years of the number of encounters AND illegal crossings. And again, no one believes this is because it suddenly became so much worse in Central America. You can check the numbers yourself, they are staggering. So even if you want to argue about who is the blame, Biden has undeniably failed in his promises to "restore normalcy" and combined with his clear mental decline, I think most people who are partisan Democrats don't believe he has the capacity. Combine that he lied about "turning the temperature down" of our politics and it's easy to see why anyone not a Democrat doesn't approve. The problem with DPB's big post a few weeks (months?) ago was that it was written towards a left-wing audience. The underlying viewpoint throughout the whole post was defending him from the center-left against the left. It had little appealing to the center-right, much less the further right. On March 19 2024 10:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be. The reduction of inflation back down to the ideal percentage (which it's basically at, currently) is more Biden's fault than the inflation occurring in the first place (which was a global consequence of the pandemic). We've posted multiple sources about how the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies helped fix our inflation better and faster than essentially any other country did. Since that was a direct quote of me I will for the record here simply note my disagreement. I'll say this for you, you are earnest. But man, not everything Democrat politicians and their lackeys say is true. I can't imagine still believing the "Inflation Reduction Act" was actually about inflation. If this is all you have to offer, it's simply my word against yours, and both of our words are worthless. Offer more concrete backing to your claims. Noone has any real reason to believe anyone's emotionally driven claims at this point. Well again that wasn't my point... BUT the fact the border is in trouble is something that everyone should know unless, I suppose, your only news was from this thread. But if you would like you can mess around here . Or google it. But presumably there wouldn't be a migrant crisis in America's big cities if there were no migrants for red states to bus there! The claim about "corporate greed" is more complicated but suffice it to say that I think one must be incredibly naïve or just gullible to think the huge rise in inflation after COVID is because of price-gouging. Again, I haven't really read any economists that aren't also Dems (like Warren) who actually try to pass that off as plausible. And you can't credit Biden for inflation going down if inflation came from corporate fat cats! Seems like the type of thing Slate or Vox would try to argue. ...But the border has BEEN in trouble. Your statement wasn't "The border is in trouble", your statement was "The border is Biden's fault". -MY- point is if you just say empty shit like "The border is chaos" it doesn't mean anything to anyone, doubly so in the current climate where taking anyone at their word is pretty stupid. If you want to say the border is Biden's fault, do everyone a favour and back up your claims, as per the guidelines of the thread, so people can actually educate themselves and/or argue specific things.
I agree with this.
There's plenty of good reasons to believe why Biden owns the border crisis based on his record.
As soon as he was inaugurated he initiated a 100-day moratorium on deportations and ended Trump era immigration policies like Remain in Mexico www.npr.org
He criticized Trump's policies as inhumane and instead invited asllyum seekers to "surge the border" insisting that America should be able to absorb anyone that comes here. www.cnn.com
He pledged a 100-day moratorium on deportations after taking office. He promised to protect sanctuary cities from federal law enforcement agencies. And he harshly criticized the Trump administration’s treatment of undocumented immigrants at the southern border, asserting that America had the capacity to “absorb people” while calling on asylum seekers to “surge” to the border
“We could afford to take in a heartbeat another two million,” Biden said at one event in August 2019. “The idea that a country of 330 million people cannot absorb people who are in desperate need and who are justifiably fleeing oppression is absolutely bizarre.”
A lot of people see migrants as too ignorant or unsophisticated to pay attention but it's simply not true. They are not stupid, they are just poor and seeking a better life and they know what a Biden victory meant. It's not just random happenstance that massive caravans of people showed up at the southern border after Biden's win.
Migrants on Mexican-US border celebrate Biden win. www.france24.com
Biden win bolsters asylum seekers' hopes of policy shift. www.Reuters.com
If you believe Trump's rhetoric is to blame for the spread of COVID you'd have to doubly believe that to be true for Biden's rhetoric on the border. Migrants actually possess the eyes and ears to hear the rhetoric. COVID surges were correlated with new variants, easing of restrictions, not with a politician asking it to surge because we can absorb 2 million new cases. Biden joins a long list of Democrat politicians that said "we welcome you to come here." and then said "ah.. shit" as soon as they came. It's par for the course for the brand of ideology where people's sense of compassion causes them to fail to see the obvious consequences of their actions.
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EPT
