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Norway28731 Posts
On March 19 2024 05:36 Sadist wrote:
What was the reason Trump didnt debate in the GOP primaries?
Now all of a sudden he wants to debate? GTFO. He was a clown show last time.
The reason was that he was winning handily without debating and he could only lose by debating. Now he's arguably a small favorite but nothing conclusive at all, and I'm guessing he thinks he's a debate favorite against Biden. Personally I honestly don't know how I think Biden is gonna do in a debate. Prolly better than expected, but still not good.
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On March 19 2024 06:14 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 05:36 Sadist wrote:
What was the reason Trump didnt debate in the GOP primaries?
Now all of a sudden he wants to debate? GTFO. He was a clown show last time.
The reason was that he was winning handily without debating and he could only lose by debating. Now he's arguably a small favorite but nothing conclusive at all, and I'm guessing he thinks he's a debate favorite against Biden. Personally I honestly don't know how I think Biden is gonna do in a debate. Prolly better than expected, but still not good.
Has this ever been the norm? I feel like hes being let off the hook for this completely.
He gets 0 benefit of the doubt on anything. Any good faith he may have ever been given should be long gone.
Im all for a debate if the mics get cut off but you know hell never agree to that. It was a shit show last time and an embarassment to the country.
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Norway28731 Posts
Of course he's breaking the norms and being let off the hook for it. The rest is kinda like, 'well, obviously' at this point, right?
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Northern Ireland26225 Posts
On the one hand it feels farcical that frequent enough debates aren’t obligatory in any democracy. On the other they are so frequently badly moderated, badly conducted dumpster fires that I guess it’s also not a massive loss to not be doing them.
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United States24752 Posts
What is the purposes of a presidential debate? I think part of the reason why we don't have effective debates is because they are conducted in the US presidential season either without a good objective or without agreement on what the objective actually is.
A debate where both sides are, from the outset, unable to ever come to agreement/alignment is not a real debate. A debate is to determine the right answer to something, not to decide who won like a game of pool, yet that's exactly how we treat it.
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On March 19 2024 06:01 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 05:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Thank you both for the sources! Given those quotes, I agree with BJ that the ball is in Biden's court. I think Biden would need to be losing in the polls pretty badly to risk a debate with Trump though. We'll see! Not sure there is anyone in Biden's camp that thinks a debate would help him now or if he falls further behind in the polls. I'm sure there's people that think it could help Biden. Because it could. If he debates and performs as well as he did in 2020 it would be a huge boon for Biden as many Americans just want some reassurance that his decline is very slow and he's not far from baseline. I get that impression that Biden's team would rather not have debates if they can get by without that causing too much blowback or murmurings of his ability. If Biden is trailing in the polls then they would be more likely to take that risk. They just have to calculate how likely he is to exceed expectations. That includes not just calculating how well they think their guy will perform but also calculating what the public expects in the first place. The latter can change quickly - he looks better after performing well at the SoTU than he did a few weeks before that when he was recalling meeting with dead people.
Agreed.
On March 19 2024 06:12 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 05:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 19 2024 05:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Thank you both for the sources! Given those quotes, I agree with BJ that the ball is in Biden's court. I think Biden would need to be losing in the polls pretty badly to risk a debate with Trump though. We'll see! Not sure there is anyone in Biden's camp that thinks a debate would help him now or if he falls further behind in the polls. Fair point. If Biden or his campaign want to publicly turn down the idea of a debate, they could certainly say it's because they know Trump just wants to hurl insults and act like a child - like Trump did on the 2020 debate stage - rather than have an intelligent exchange of ideas. That would be precisely what would happen anyway. Biden supporters would likely be fine with that, and Trump supporters would accuse Biden of running scared, so neither side would shift. The debates are scheduled, with the first being Sept 16th.If Biden insists on not showing up, I don't think "independent"/"undecided" voters will be as forgiving for such an upheaval as party loyalists.
True. Apparently, there are 3 tentatively planned P debates and 1 VP debate, which I think is pretty standard:
Debate / Date / Location / Host
First presidential debate / September 16, 2024 / San Marcos, Texas / Texas State University
Vice presidential debate / September 25, 2024 / Easton, Pennsylvania / Lafayette College
Second presidential debate / October 1, 2024 / Petersburg, Virginia / Virginia State University
Third presidential debate / October 9, 2024 / Salt Lake City, Utah / The University of Utah
( https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_debates,_2024#General_election_debates )
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On March 19 2024 06:14 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 05:36 Sadist wrote:
What was the reason Trump didnt debate in the GOP primaries?
Now all of a sudden he wants to debate? GTFO. He was a clown show last time. The reason was that he was winning handily without debating and he could only lose by debating. Now he's arguably a small favorite but nothing conclusive at all, and I'm guessing he thinks he's a debate favorite against Biden. Personally I honestly don't know how I think Biden is gonna do in a debate. Prolly better than expected, but still not good.
You are right, but also if Trump debated people like DeSantis he'd be hit from the right on COVID, on spending, on unfulfilled promises, etc. Meanwhile what could he go after DeSantis on? He's done everything a GOP primary voter could want. Meanwhile, as Biden's approval rating makes clear, Trump has his pick of what to go after Biden for. Trump can contrast his presidency with Biden's, an easy proposition when nowadays more people approve of Trump's time in office than they approve of Biden's. It's easy.
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United States43431 Posts
Zero point in debating someone who lies the way Trump does. You’ll spend all the time just correcting him and never get a chance to state your own case. The only logical way to approach a debate with Trump is to fight fire with fire and go in ready to directly accuse him of being behind COVID as part of his conspiracy with Tim Apple to give Americans extra Gs.
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Norway28731 Posts
I think there's one good reason to debate him, and that is that people who are still undecided at this point strike me as the crowd who are more likely to go huh? biden's dodging? he scared? than 'well obviously there's no point in debating trump because he just lies'.
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On March 19 2024 07:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I think there's one good reason to debate him, and that is that people who are still undecided at this point strike me as the crowd who are more likely to go huh? biden's dodging? he scared? than 'well obviously there's no point in debating trump because he just lies'. The notion of an undecided voter when one side is a literal fascist pledging to end democracy and the other isn't is just so alien to me.
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That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be.
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Northern Ireland26225 Posts
On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be.
Aye that’s pretty fair, although I’d say the world absolutely respects America more when Donald Trump isn’t their head of state.
Whether that manifests in anything that people consider meaningful is another thing entirely, I mean the average European’s opinion being slightly better disposed is basically irrelevant if you think the overall direction of travel in foreign policy is wrong.
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On March 19 2024 07:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I think there's one good reason to debate him, and that is that people who are still undecided at this point strike me as the crowd who are more likely to go huh? biden's dodging? he scared? than 'well obviously there's no point in debating trump because he just lies'.
If Biden was running a turn out campaign this wouldn't be as much of a problem, but since he's not, refusing to attend the debates would most likely hurt him with the very voters he's campaigning to win over.
Biden probably shouldn't debate Trump, but I don't think he's really got a choice, unless he can take a significant lead in polls he's been behind Trump in for months.
Refusing to have a long scheduled debate with someone beating you in the polls for the sake of democracy also rightfully sounds silly to a lot of people, particularly those that don't vote in Democrat primaries.
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Lmao at the world respecting us more with Trump as president. Are you kidding me?
What are your metrics for that?
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On March 19 2024 08:36 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 07:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I think there's one good reason to debate him, and that is that people who are still undecided at this point strike me as the crowd who are more likely to go huh? biden's dodging? he scared? than 'well obviously there's no point in debating trump because he just lies'. If Biden was running a turn out campaign this wouldn't be as much of a problem, but since he's not, refusing to attend the debates would most likely hurt him with the very voters he's campaigning to win over. Biden probably shouldn't debate Trump, but I don't think he's really got a choice, unless he can take a significant lead in polls he's been behind Trump in for months.
Refusing to have a long scheduled debate with someone beating you in the polls for the sake of democracy also rightfully sounds silly to a lot of people, particularly those that don't vote in Democrat primaries.
Just a reminder that the polls this early don't matter, and that includes recent ones where Biden is tied with Trump or even leading by the tiniest margin.
The debates are scheduled for September and October, where the polls are more likely to be somewhat predictive (although, as many of us have pointed out before, it'll likely be a coinflip).
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United States43431 Posts
On March 19 2024 08:42 Sadist wrote:
Lmao at the world respecting us more with Trump as president. Are you kidding me?
What are your metrics for that?
Well Trump was able to surrender to the Taliban and salute random NK generals. How many times has Biden done that? How many times have the literal heads of state of American allies arranged a hangout just to stage parody meme photos of Biden? Trump has him beaten there too. And how many times has the UN general assembly burst out in laughter at Biden? None again!
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The answer from Biden to the question "Do you intend to debate Donald Trump" should be so easy.
"Trump wants to debate? I'm not surprised. He's up to his sizeable ass in court cases and has some large fines levied against him. Of course he wants to debate, and of course he claims it's for the good of the country. It's actually just for him, and to turn our eyes away from the fraud he's committed and the documents he stole."
Follow that with some shit about needing a moderator Biden could trust, that could prevent Trump from droning on about stolen elections and other falsifiable claims.
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Regarding Trump and "Covid not being his fault", his complete fucking mishandling of everything Covid related should never be forgotten.
The man singlehandidly became the face of the anti-mask movement. I would argue he did this globally, not just in the US. At a fucking time when the country should have came together to fight a virus like a war, he chose to lie, mislead,misconstrue, and be as fucking divisive as possible.
It is absolutely understandable that people made mistakes during Covid in the beginning. What is not understandable is what he did.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21176535/trumps-worst-statements-coronavirus
His handling of Covid alone should make him unfit for office. He politicized it because of the fucking election coming in the fall.
Then, during a pandemic, he vilified mail in voting and instead tried to stage a coup and steal the election. Do you not think the world saw Jan 6th?
Muslim Ban? Bible Photop? Very fine people on both sides? Mexico will pay for the wall? Repeal and replace obamacare? Hurricane path with a sharpy? The list is fucking endless.
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On March 19 2024 08:47 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 08:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 19 2024 07:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I think there's one good reason to debate him, and that is that people who are still undecided at this point strike me as the crowd who are more likely to go huh? biden's dodging? he scared? than 'well obviously there's no point in debating trump because he just lies'. If Biden was running a turn out campaign this wouldn't be as much of a problem, but since he's not, refusing to attend the debates would most likely hurt him with the very voters he's campaigning to win over. Biden probably shouldn't debate Trump, but I don't think he's really got a choice, unless he can take a significant lead in polls he's been behind Trump in for months.
Refusing to have a long scheduled debate with someone beating you in the polls for the sake of democracy also rightfully sounds silly to a lot of people, particularly those that don't vote in Democrat primaries. Just a reminder that the polls this early don't matter, and that includes recent ones where Biden is tied with Trump or even leading by the tiniest margin. The debates are scheduled for September and October, where the polls are more likely to be somewhat predictive (although, as many of us have pointed out before, it'll likely be a coinflip).
Individual polls at a given moment (particularly early in the race) tell us little/nothing about what the outcome will be in November.
Polls collectively at this point in the race do matter, but they also have little to no information to give us about the ultimate outcome.
When I'm talking about general election polls, I'm not talking about individual polls. I'm talking about poll averages over months compared to Biden vs Trump 2020. Typically we could dismiss the previous presidential election's polls as points of comparison because they were different people (Hillary vs Trump compared to Biden vs Trump), but that's not the case this election.
While I take your point about the predictive capabilities of polls this early (individually or averages), "Polls this early don't matter" is an overstatement to the point of being critically inaccurate. Besides playing an important role in plans for how and where they will spend the campaigns' resources over the coming months, they also help provide a window into how Biden v Trump 2024 is developing leading into the convention/debates compared to Biden v Trump 2020 among people being polled (so far it's pretty significantly worse). Democrats ignore/dismiss this at their own (and all of ours really) peril from my perspective.
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On March 19 2024 08:22 Introvert wrote:
That hyperbole is part of the problem. Take this silly dust up over "bloodbath" the last few days. If you are undecided, there is a good chance you dont think hes a threat to democracy. And that, I think one big aspect of his chances for retaking the White House. In retrospect, so much of the drama of his presidency revolved around him, but pre-COVID things weren't actually that bad for most people. Then, given the frustrating tendency of Americans to forgive their politicians on left and right, they don't view COVID as his fault (and to be fair, it wasn't). Meanwhile, they know that under Biden and his policies, casually connected or not, inflation soared, the border is in chaos, and the world doesn't seem to respect us more than it did before, as Biden (and evey dem president) promises they will. Some of those things are entirely Biden's fault (the border) and some are not entirely but in no small part his fault (inflation). And barring some catastrophe like COVID, people hold thr president accountable.
It really isn't all that hard to understand. The shrieking from thr media didn't match reality, and Biden's reality sucks. He hasn't exactly kept his promises, either in tone or on policy. No one elected him to be FDR or LBJ, but he thinks he should be.
What makes it hard to understand is that all that shit sounds made up.
COVID was bad and Trump's handling of it was also bad. COVID happening wasn't his fault, but the fucking dumb shit he said about it during his presidency certainly was.
Inflation is a problem in a lot of places right now, and is commonly blamed on corporations profiteering, not biden policy. I'm no economist and can't speak further to this, but the economists I have heard don't blame Biden, far as I can tell.
The border is in chaos? I seem to recall late Obama and early Trump involving caging people and separating families. Is it actually worse now, or just convenient to claim it is? Why isn't that wall working, anyways? I thought the previous president got the thing he campained on and built a big fuckoff wall.
I'm willing to believe Biden's presidency hasn't been great. That jives with my loose understanding. Things like DPB's review on Biden's presidency are useful. Things like the post of yours I quoted are as useful as Trump standing on a podium and declaring Biden a crook and the presidency stolen illegitimately.
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