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On June 03 2023 02:12 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 01:49 Mohdoo wrote: This bill is the second firm blemish in Biden's presidency. The first one was killing the rail strike. This is critically bad. I do not view Biden as an ethical person. I don't disagree entirely but the other option was rolling the dice on destroying the economy entirely by having the US default on its loans...
No, the other idea was to force payments to continue and not let republicans further their ability to demand whatever they want.
The situation we have lived with, and now live with to a more extreme degree, is that republicans can threaten to burn the house down if we don't let them have what they want.
Biden was unwilling to rise to the challenge and negotiated with terrorists. If there is anything the last 10 years have shown us, it is that rules/regulations/institutions are whatever you want them to be, so long as you dig in and make it happen. Biden chose to sit on his hands and point to a rule book while republicans tore their own rule book in half and raked in demands.
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Northern Ireland23759 Posts
This general approach to negotiations only makes sense when rules are rigid, and for rules not covered the expected norms are universally sacrosanct, and for all sides of the aisle to have got that memo.
It’s how proper institutions function. We may not always like it, or agree with one another, but we shall find compromise within the confines of this august institution and its lofty ideals.
Self-serving lip service aside the current incarnation of the GOP has shown time and time again that they’ll transgress previous norms whenever they get half an opportunity.
Which leaves you with three courses of rough action. 1. Try the difficult work of restoring some level of bipartisan adherence to institutional norms and civic ideals. 2. Fight dirty on this new battleground 3. Restrain yourself from deviation and hope that being the ‘better man’ will grant you favour as the other lot trample over them and achieve tangible political goals.
Option 1 isn’t going to particularly align one neatly with any path to much revolutionary. And it would be bloody difficult to accomplish in the current political climate, but that said the kind of pronounced political divisions in the country aren’t great to say the least. If I could snap my fingers and have a country broadly in agreement on the country, with faith in its institutions but with differences of political opinion, versus that broadly seen today where it’s essentially two enemy camps with no great faith in institutions outside of wielding them in a partisan manner, different media apparatus etc, hey I’d definitely take that as a big upgrade.
Option 3 is just a shit option and it gets you very little. Where are these Reps and Independents who go ‘Hey, I like that the Biden administration is showing a willingness to compromise and give bipartisanship a shot. Maybe we should give credit for that effort, and hey reciprocate.’ I mean I’m sure some people do say such things, I sure as fuck don’t hear much of it.
Ok the debt ceiling is a pretty apocalyptic one to play the hardball dance, but it’s a consistent pattern we see repeated ad nauseam.
To the degree that it feels very much the plan, not situational pragmatism. Democrats might actually be able to get some radical things done that end up hugely popular once instantiated. And corporate America can’t be having that now can they? Better to not actually try and heap the blame on the GOP so the whole dance can continue in perpetuity. Definitely think GH is bang on the money on this one.
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Northern Ireland23759 Posts
On June 03 2023 07:51 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 06:52 Mohdoo wrote:On June 03 2023 02:12 Gorsameth wrote:On June 03 2023 01:49 Mohdoo wrote: This bill is the second firm blemish in Biden's presidency. The first one was killing the rail strike. This is critically bad. I do not view Biden as an ethical person. I don't disagree entirely but the other option was rolling the dice on destroying the economy entirely by having the US default on its loans... No, the other idea was to force payments to continue and not let republicans further their ability to demand whatever they want. The situation we have lived with, and now live with to a more extreme degree, is that republicans can threaten to burn the house down if we don't let them have what they want. Biden was unwilling to rise to the challenge and negotiated with terrorists. If there is anything the last 10 years have shown us, it is that rules/regulations/institutions are whatever you want them to be, so long as you dig in and make it happen. Biden chose to sit on his hands and point to a rule book while republicans tore their own rule book in half and raked in demands. The interesting thing is Rep voters are equally or more pissed off. Are they ever not pissed off to be fair?
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United States24568 Posts
On June 03 2023 08:05 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 07:51 JimmiC wrote:On June 03 2023 06:52 Mohdoo wrote:On June 03 2023 02:12 Gorsameth wrote:On June 03 2023 01:49 Mohdoo wrote: This bill is the second firm blemish in Biden's presidency. The first one was killing the rail strike. This is critically bad. I do not view Biden as an ethical person. I don't disagree entirely but the other option was rolling the dice on destroying the economy entirely by having the US default on its loans... No, the other idea was to force payments to continue and not let republicans further their ability to demand whatever they want. The situation we have lived with, and now live with to a more extreme degree, is that republicans can threaten to burn the house down if we don't let them have what they want. Biden was unwilling to rise to the challenge and negotiated with terrorists. If there is anything the last 10 years have shown us, it is that rules/regulations/institutions are whatever you want them to be, so long as you dig in and make it happen. Biden chose to sit on his hands and point to a rule book while republicans tore their own rule book in half and raked in demands. The interesting thing is Rep voters are equally or more pissed off. Are they ever not pissed off to be fair? Most of them weren't pissed off when the Capitol was raided on January 6th in an attempt to overturn the presidential election, I think?
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On June 03 2023 04:06 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 03:45 Introvert wrote: Debt-limit negotiation has been a thing for a long time now, in different forms. Sometimes they agree on budgetary items for the budget bills, there's basically no such thing as a clean debt deal (previous "clean" debt bills came with future budget agreements). People proposing the 14th amendment aren't being serious, the case for the president's authority to use it is, charitably speaking, a heavy lift.
And of course it should be noted that Dems had two years to get rid of the debt ceiling entirely and didn't. It's something they can leverage too.
But this is becoming par for the course for Biden. Float/do something he can't do and then attack those who stop him. Be it calling the House majority terrorists or undermining the legitimacy of the Court, it's Biden's actions, not those who stop him, who are fraying institutions.
Edit: and don't forget the eviction moratorium. It's really a cynical strategy he's using.
Edit: in other news, the Supreme court sided 8-1 with the cement company in Washington over the workers who walked off the job while the trucks were full. I being it up because I recall that being talked about here. Please explain which part of Show nested quote +The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, ... shall not be questioned. is a heavy lift. It seems rather clear to me that the constitution does not allow the US to default on its loans.
Because Congress still is the only entity with the power to tax, spend, and borrow. That's the primary reason. Their failure to do so does not empower the president to try and do it himself.
And as at least some scholars have argued, the word "question" is ambiguous. Missing a payment is not the same thing, one could argue that being late doesn't actually question the validity of the debt, which everyone still expects to be honored at some point.
(The US could miss a "payment". That would most likely be due to technical reasons, the treasury still brings in enough money every month to service the debt.)
Then of course we argue from history. That section was added with the civil war behind them and the thorny issue of how to deal with the southern states. The idea that Republicans in Congress or the ratifying states would ever presume to let Andrew Johnson of all people (or those like him) have the power to raise the borrowing cap is obviously absurd. The point of the amendment is more nuanced than a simple promise. And of course, Congresses and the Presidents since its passage have all known that attempting to act unilaterally is legally dubious. Otherwise why go through this in the first place?
Actually, let me just cite this op-ed here in its entirety, he makes the points better than I do.
+ Show Spoiler +The threat of a debt default is again in the air, with the possible dreadful effect of ruining the credit of the U.S. To stave off that default and embarrassment, President Biden is toying with the idea of asserting that the debt ceiling violates the 14th Amendment. Neither the Constitution nor the law nor common sense is on his side. The 14th Amendment is often cited but rarely quoted. Section 4 both repudiates Confederate debt and promises to honor U.S. debt. The provision at issue provides that the “validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law . . . shall not be questioned.” Section 4 doesn’t address default or other failures to honor terms of a debt contract. It bars repudiation. A debtor who is late on a payment isn’t questioning the debt’s validity; he is merely tardy. To my knowledge, no one on either side of the debate is suggesting that the U.S. repudiate its debt. Further, even if one assumes the 14th Amendment bars debt defaults, it nowhere authorizes the president to take whatever measures he deems necessary to prevent default. It no more empowers him to take such measures than it does you or me. As per the Constitution, Congress, not the president, has the power to “borrow money on the credit of the United States.” If the Constitution bars default and more money is needed to prevent default, Congress must act. The president can’t issue debt on his own say-so. And even if one assumes the president has the authority to borrow to pay interest on existing debts, why would he be able to issue debt sufficient to fund all fiscal operations, including not only debt service but hundreds of billions of spending? What Mr. Biden is contemplating isn’t an increase in the debt ceiling sufficient to pay the interest. He is considering defiance of the debt ceiling altogether to spend all that Congress has appropriated. There is no constitutional requirement that once Congress appropriates funds, the federal government must do whatever it takes to spend that money. If Congress appropriates $1 trillion and the Treasury has only $900 billion, there is no constitutional issue with spending only the money available. What the president is contemplating has nothing to do with questioning the validity of federal debts. Perhaps most important, the White House and the Treasury are hiding the ball. Even with no increase in the debt ceiling and no new borrowing, there’s more than enough money to service the existing debt. According to the Treasury, in March federal receipts were $313 billion and interest payments were $67 billion. In April the receipts were $639 billion and interest $62 billion. There is no month of the year when interest on the debt will outstrip federal tax receipts. Hence, even if there were a constitutional requirement to avoid default—and there isn’t—the government has ample funds to meet that obligation. The Treasury knows this. Secretary Janet Yellen’s May 15 letter warns of being “unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations.” The “government’s obligations” aren’t limited to the debt. Ms. Yellen is referring to the money that Congress has appropriated. In other words, if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, the amounts that Congress appropriated for this year won’t be spent because there are insufficient funds in the Treasury. But that isn’t a constitutional problem, and it has nothing to do with the 14th Amendment. If Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling, the only reason there would be a default is if the executive fails to pay the interest on the debt as it comes due. But if the executive branch believes there is a constitutional requirement to pay the interest, why would it even consider refusing to do so? To my knowledge there is no law that prevents the executive from prioritizing interest payments above all other spending. In fact, there is an argument that having by statute pledged the “faith of the United States Government,” Congress implicitly prioritized the payment of the interest and principal. If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, the Treasury should pay the interest as it is due and spend less than Congress appropriated. That would be the best solution in the wake of a mismatch between total inflows (taxes plus new borrowing) and Congress’s desired spending. If Mr. Biden borrows money by executive fiat, the U.S. would be in dangerous and uncharted territory. It’s unclear if anyone would have legal standing to bring a court challenge. But purchasers of these Biden bonds would be assuming an enormous risk. Because the 14th Amendment refers only to debt “authorized by law,” the government could repudiate the Biden bonds. In fact, because there is no lawful authority to pay interest on them, there would be no legal way to repay buyers of his bonds. I hope a compromise is reached. But if our politicians fail us again, the president would be violating the Constitution if he ignored the debt ceiling and borrowed money without Congress’s authorization. The Constitution doesn’t make the president a Mr. Fix-It, empowered to do whatever he feels just or right.
Finally, this part about "terrorists." The debt limit has often been used as a time for bargaining. From the CRS. I apologize for the formatting, this is just how it copied from the site.
+ Show Spoiler +Point of Clarification 3: Were “Clean” or Less Contentious Debt Limit Increases Once the Norm?
Some commentators have claimed that contentious debt limit episodes are a recent phenomenon or that “clean” debt limit increases were once the norm. 93 Debt policy, however, has been a divisive issue since the beginning of American government and has often been linked with other policy decisions. 94 Debt, by its nature, allows government to shift the fiscal burden of current expenditures or lessen the burden of current taxes by transferring obligations to future taxpayers.95 Shifting fiscal burdens into the future through debt management is a powerful and potentially beneficial tool of fiscal policy, but can also become a means of avoiding fiscal responsibility in the present. Debt policy discussions, therefore, often become contentious. Since 1978, 27 of a total of 59 debt limit modifications were “clean”—meaning that a debt limit measure was not linked to other provisions.96 That delineation, however, is imperfect. In some cases, a debt limit provision might have been attached to another measure that acted as a convenient legislative vehicle for passage. In other cases, combining a debt limit modification with other provisions may have resulted from a broad fiscal compromise among policymakers. In addition, a debt limit modification enacted as a standalone measure could have resulted from a policy compromise involving other issues. For instance, on February 15, 2014, a “clean” debt limit suspension (P.L. 113-83) was enacted. On the same afternoon, another measure (P.L. 113- 82) was enacted to reverse certain reductions in cost-of-living adjustments to working-age military retiree pensions that had been included in the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013 (BBA2013; P.L. 113-67). Although nothing formally linked the two measures, their passage in quick succession may have reflected a fiscal compromise. Debt limit measures have been informally or formally linked with other issues for many decades.97 In 1939, when Congress was considering creating what became the modern debt limit, Senator George Norris offered an amendment to allow the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) to use bonds to consummate purchases of some power plants. Once a separate TVA measure was agreed to, the amendment to the debt limit measure (H.R. 5748, 76th Congress) was withdrawn.98 In 1957, Congress declined to raise the limit until the following February, in part to “compel more economy of efficiency, better management of money and manpower in the defense program.” 99 In the 1960s, debt limit debates provided a forum for those concerned about the expansion of federal spending due to federal credit guarantees, new social insurance programs, and the escalation of the Vietnam War.100 After a June 1960 debt limit increase (P.L. 86-564) that included various tax provisions, however, unrelated matters were not attached to debt limit measures during Senate floor consideration for the rest of the 1960s.101 In the early 1970s, debt limit measures were embroiled in debates over campaign finance reform and in congressional conflicts with the Nixon and Ford Administrations. 102 Senate amendments to debt limit measures increased Social Security benefits in 1971, 1972, and 1973. In 1973, proposed amendments to provide federal campaign financing, to cut off funding for bombing in Cambodia, and to limit presidential impoundment of funds were all rejected.103 In the mid-1980s, a group of Senators attached a system of budget constraints and deficit targets, which became known as the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings framework, to a debt limit provision after “partisan and sometimes testy wrangling.” 104 Debates over what provisions should accompany a debt limit increase in late 1995 and early 1996 also were contentious. In 1995, some Members called for spending reductions of about $245 billion over seven years as a condition for raising the debt limit.105 After a related lapse in appropriations and a veto of one debt limit bill (H.R. 2586, 104th Congress), 106 the debt limit was raised on March 29, 1996.107 The debt limit episode of 1995-1996 was described by GAO as a “crisis.” 108
Biden dug himself a hole by saying he wouldn't negotiate. He though the GOP House wouldn't be able to come together so he wouldn't actually have to do anything. When they passed the bill some weeks ago Democrats were caught off guard.
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On June 03 2023 03:45 Introvert wrote:
Edit: in other news, the Supreme court sided 8-1 with the cement company in Washington over the workers who walked off the job while the trucks were full. I being it up because I recall that being talked about here.
Thank you I kinda lost the track of this case, I do think however that ruling is quite devastating.
Question on the debt ceiling: It seems to me ( I obviously may be mistaken) that overall debt is unsustainable and US will have to eventually default (maybe excluding some CBDC magic) - now wouldnt it be less brutal the earlier it is done?
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On June 03 2023 08:29 Razyda wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 03:45 Introvert wrote:
Edit: in other news, the Supreme court sided 8-1 with the cement company in Washington over the workers who walked off the job while the trucks were full. I being it up because I recall that being talked about here. Thank you I kinda lost the track of this case, I do think however that ruling is quite devastating. Question on the debt ceiling: It seems to me ( I obviously may be mistaken) that overall debt is unsustainable and US will have to eventually default (maybe excluding some CBDC magic) - now wouldnt it be less brutal the earlier it is done?
eh, I think it is unsustainable but, for lack of a better phrase, the United States' place in the world means it has more time and room than almost any other country. But that doesn't make default inevitable, and indeed to me that seems the worst option. And arguably you can have increasing debt forever so long as it doesn't exceed GDP growth in certain metrics. So we're not at the point of no return. but politically it doesn't seem like anyone has the will to address the problem now instead of later.
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United States41957 Posts
On June 03 2023 08:29 Razyda wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 03:45 Introvert wrote:
Edit: in other news, the Supreme court sided 8-1 with the cement company in Washington over the workers who walked off the job while the trucks were full. I being it up because I recall that being talked about here. Thank you I kinda lost the track of this case, I do think however that ruling is quite devastating. Question on the debt ceiling: It seems to me ( I obviously may be mistaken) that overall debt is unsustainable and US will have to eventually default (maybe excluding some CBDC magic) - now wouldnt it be less brutal the earlier it is done? Very mistaken.
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On June 03 2023 08:37 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 08:29 Razyda wrote:On June 03 2023 03:45 Introvert wrote:
Edit: in other news, the Supreme court sided 8-1 with the cement company in Washington over the workers who walked off the job while the trucks were full. I being it up because I recall that being talked about here. Thank you I kinda lost the track of this case, I do think however that ruling is quite devastating. Question on the debt ceiling: It seems to me ( I obviously may be mistaken) that overall debt is unsustainable and US will have to eventually default (maybe excluding some CBDC magic) - now wouldnt it be less brutal the earlier it is done? eh, I think it is unsustainable but, for lack of a better phrase, the United States' place in the world means it has more time and room than almost any other country. But that doesn't make default inevitable, and indeed to me that seems the worst option. And arguably you can have increasing debt forever so long as it doesn't exceed GDP growth in certain metrics. So we're not at the point of no return. but politically it doesn't seem like anyone has the will to address the problem now instead of later.
Thank you
On June 03 2023 09:27 KwarK wrote:
Very mistaken.
Care to elaborate?
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United States41957 Posts
The dollar is a made up idea expressing the ability of the US government to compel labour from its population. The US government can’t default on what is essentially a manifestation of its own existence and power.
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On June 03 2023 10:35 KwarK wrote: The dollar is a made up idea expressing the ability of the US government to compel labour from its population. The US government can’t default on what is essentially a manifestation of its own existence and power.
That quite frankly doesnt seem in any way related to issue at hand? as introvert stated this seems to be related to US global power more than anything else and quite frankly US power seems to be waning and made up ideas seem to not fare well against reality. Also the question is not exactly if the US government "can default " it is more if it will be able not to.
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United States41957 Posts
On June 03 2023 10:48 Razyda wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 10:35 KwarK wrote: The dollar is a made up idea expressing the ability of the US government to compel labour from its population. The US government can’t default on what is essentially a manifestation of its own existence and power. That quite frankly doesnt seem in any way related to issue at hand? as introvert stated this seems to be related to US global power more than anything else and quite frankly US power seems to be waning and made up ideas seem to not fare well against reality. Also the question is not exactly if the US government "can default " it is more if it will be able not to. You were arguing that as the debt grows over time a default will be inevitable. It’s not only not inevitable, it’s only possible if they intentionally do it.
I don’t think you understand what a dollar is. It’s not a good or service, it’s a promise, not the delivery on a promise. It’s ethereal. You can’t run out of promises. People might not value your promises as much in the future as they do now but there’s no shortage of promises to be made and the value of US promises remains in very high demand.
The idea of the debt having interest is a little silly when you get into it because the promised goods implied by the dollars is unspecified. There’s no reason to think that $100 of promises in 2030 means twice as much as $50 of promises in 2020 because it’s unquantifiable. It’s like trying to measure owing someone big time vs owing someone one.
The parties holding US debt don’t even want it fulfilled today, they don’t want to be paid back in goods today. They just had surplus and needed something liquid and stable to put it in and US promises seemed like something that could be reliably bartered at some point down the line.
The problem is people think of national debt like household debt. If you are a person and required to repay someone dollars then you are required to find someone who has dollars and give them something of value. Dollars are tangible to a person, they’re real. But to the US treasury a dollar is not tangible, it’s an expression of their ability to compel Americans to perform unspecified labour. They’re not owing anything real, they’re promising to do something in the future.
What we actually see as US GDP growth outpaces debt interest is the debt, in promise terms, actually gets smaller. The US gets something of value today and makes a promise like “I’ll help you move with my truck at some point”. The bearer of that promise doesn’t call it in because they’re not planning on moving any time soon but they are slowly acquiring more stuff and so technically the size of the obligation is getting bigger. However the US’s family is growing even faster and now he has a bunch of big strong sons and so the job of helping the guy move will actually take less time in a few years than it would on the day the promise was made.
It’s kind of like that except the receiver of the promise don’t even get to pick what the US owes them. They can’t demand that the US helps them move. It’s an unspecified promise to help them out with something in the future. And they’re not even interested in getting that help, they know that the promise itself has value and so they can barter it to other third parties that also value US promises. They’re treated like modern gold, most holders of gold in the olden days weren’t jewelers, they had no use for gold, there was no plan to consume it. They just needed something stable, transferable, and convenient to use as a means of exchange. Cashing in your US government promises would be like a wool merchant in the 1400s deciding he was going to make fancy metal shoes with all his gold. Sure, you could do that, you could technically try to use it for what it intrinsically is rather than as a means of exchange. But you’d have gone mad and you’d have nothing to give the sheep farmers and you only ever wanted the gold because it was a convenient way to get payment from the weavers and use it to acquire more wool.
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Plus, besides the philosophical underpinnings of a government issued fiat currency, there's the simple fact that the US government owns the dollar printing presses.
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On June 03 2023 10:57 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 10:48 Razyda wrote:On June 03 2023 10:35 KwarK wrote: The dollar is a made up idea expressing the ability of the US government to compel labour from its population. The US government can’t default on what is essentially a manifestation of its own existence and power. That quite frankly doesnt seem in any way related to issue at hand? as introvert stated this seems to be related to US global power more than anything else and quite frankly US power seems to be waning and made up ideas seem to not fare well against reality. Also the question is not exactly if the US government "can default " it is more if it will be able not to. You were arguing that as the debt grows over time a default will be inevitable. It’s not only not inevitable, it’s only just possible if they intentionally do it. I don’t think you understand what a dollar is.
Oh I do, where I think you err is the part where you assuming that US will remain a global power it is now. This actually seems to not be viable stance considering the fact that every area of the world is trying to make trade pacts with single goal of dethroning the dollar
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On June 03 2023 10:57 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 10:48 Razyda wrote:On June 03 2023 10:35 KwarK wrote: The dollar is a made up idea expressing the ability of the US government to compel labour from its population. The US government can’t default on what is essentially a manifestation of its own existence and power. That quite frankly doesnt seem in any way related to issue at hand? as introvert stated this seems to be related to US global power more than anything else and quite frankly US power seems to be waning and made up ideas seem to not fare well against reality. Also the question is not exactly if the US government "can default " it is more if it will be able not to. You were arguing that as the debt grows over time a default will be inevitable. It’s not only not inevitable, it’s only possible if they intentionally do it. I don’t think you understand what a dollar is. It’s not a good or service, it’s a promise, not the delivery on a promise. It’s ethereal. You can’t run out of promises. People might not value your promises as much in the future as they do now but there’s no shortage of promises to be made and the value of US promises remains in very high demand. The idea of the debt having interest is a little silly when you get into it because the promised goods implied by the dollars is unspecified. There’s no reason to think that $100 of promises in 2030 means twice as much as $50 of promises in 2020 because it’s unquantifiable. It’s like trying to measure owing someone big time vs owing someone one. The parties holding US debt don’t even want it fulfilled today, they don’t want to be paid back in goods today. They just had surplus and needed something liquid and stable to put it in and US promises seemed like something that could be reliably bartered at some point down the line. The problem is people think of national debt like household debt. If you are a person and required to repay someone dollars then you are required to find someone who has dollars and give them something of value. Dollars are tangible to a person, they’re real. But to the US treasury a dollar is not tangible, it’s an expression of their ability to compel Americans to perform unspecified labour. They’re not owing anything real, they’re promising to do something in the future. What we actually see as US GDP growth outpaces debt interest is the debt, in promise terms, actually gets smaller. The US gets something of value today and makes a promise like “I’ll help you move with my truck at some point”. The bearer of that promise doesn’t call it in because they’re not planning on moving any time soon but they are slowly acquiring more stuff and so technically the size of the obligation is getting bigger. However the US’s family is growing even faster and now he has a bunch of big strong sons and so the job of helping the guy move will actually take less time in a few years than it would on the day the promise was made. It’s kind of like that except the receiver of the promise don’t even get to pick what the US owes them. They can’t demand that the US helps them move. It’s an unspecified promise to help them out with something in the future. And they’re not even interested in getting that help, they know that the promise itself has value and so they can barter it to other third parties that also value US promises. They’re treated like modern gold, most holders of gold in the olden days weren’t jewelers, they had no use for gold, there was no plan to consume it. They just needed something stable, transferable, and convenient to use as a means of exchange. Cashing in your US government promises would be like a wool merchant in the 1400s deciding he was going to make fancy metal shoes with all his gold. Sure, you could do that, you could technically try to use it for what it intrinsically is rather than as a means of exchange. But you’d have gone mad and you’d have nothing to give the sheep farmers and you only ever wanted the gold because it was a convenient way to get payment from the weavers and use it to acquire more wool. Sorry but all you wrote is based on presumption that US will remain global power it is now - currently it seems global power is shifting away from US (at least it is trying too) and eventually it will. Then what???
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United States41957 Posts
On June 03 2023 12:11 Razyda wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2023 10:57 KwarK wrote:On June 03 2023 10:48 Razyda wrote:On June 03 2023 10:35 KwarK wrote: The dollar is a made up idea expressing the ability of the US government to compel labour from its population. The US government can’t default on what is essentially a manifestation of its own existence and power. That quite frankly doesnt seem in any way related to issue at hand? as introvert stated this seems to be related to US global power more than anything else and quite frankly US power seems to be waning and made up ideas seem to not fare well against reality. Also the question is not exactly if the US government "can default " it is more if it will be able not to. You were arguing that as the debt grows over time a default will be inevitable. It’s not only not inevitable, it’s only just possible if they intentionally do it. I don’t think you understand what a dollar is. Oh I do, where I think you err is the part where you assuming that US will remain a global power it is now. This actually seems to not be viable stance considering the fact that every area of the world is trying to make trade pacts with single goal of dethroning the dollar You’re imagining things. Russia refuses to take Indian rupees for oil, for example. Most other currencies can only be used to demand labor from that country which is only useful if you plan to have fully balanced and exclusive trade with that country. Nobody does that, just like no Walmart employee would accept payment in Walmart gift cards because they can’t easily use them to pay rent. What you want is something that everyone takes, something you can receive for goods from country A and then use to buy goods from B through Z, something you can hold to buy goods later with a reasonable expectation of holding purchasing power.
There aren’t many currencies that do that and half the ones that do are pegged to the dollar anyway.
I suspect you’ve been reading clickbait about BRICS or something. People have been predicting the dollar’s decline for fifty years and it only gets stronger. Find whatever article you read that says that Brazil or whatever will dethrone the dollar and I will find you an identical one from 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 years ago with equally convincing arguments for some other country and currency. It never materialized for the same reason that Google + never took off. Once everyone has an agreed and functional means of exchange the network effect makes it very difficult to displace.
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I may be mistaken about this, but I think it does not actually matter to the value of the dollar as a currency of choice for international commerce whether the US remains a dominant global power or not. What matters is the belief of people and nations in the value of the dollar and the US's willingness and ability to repay debts it owes if the holders of that debt call it in.
Inflation does not particularly effect that*. Everyone who lends money to the US knows going into it that inflation happens and will reduce the real value of the principal owed. What does effect that is indications that the US's willingness and ability to repay its debts is not stable.
Such as, for example, one of the two major political parties holding owed payments hostage to wring concessions out of their opposition.
*This is assuming that inflation (to be clear, a decrease in the purchasing power of a dollar) is even being driven by an increase in the supply of dollars, and not corporations with a stranglehold on their market increasing prices to set new profit records because they can blame it on inflation.
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I think the most interesting metric for country debt is domestic vs foreign and how that is promised to be payed. If the borrowing is in US dollars and doesn't have an inflation clause you can just print money to get rid of it instead of defaulting.
Sure that drives inflation and lowers your currency value, while also making it more expensive to borrow in the future. You just have to judge if that is better than defaulting and for most countries it is.
Defaulting becomes something you consider when most of your debt is not domestic and not held in a currency you control. You can't run the printing the machine easily since it just devalues your currency and thus your debt didn't change in absolute terms.
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On June 03 2023 15:36 Yurie wrote: I think the most interesting metric for country debt is domestic vs foreign and how that is promised to be payed. If the borrowing is in US dollars and doesn't have an inflation clause you can just print money to get rid of it instead of defaulting.
Sure that drives inflation and lowers your currency value, while also making it more expensive to borrow in the future. You just have to judge if that is better than defaulting and for most countries it is.
Defaulting becomes something you consider when most of your debt is not domestic and not held in a currency you control. You can't run the printing the machine easily since it just devalues your currency and thus your debt didn't change in absolute terms. Yeah, but the FED is in charge of printing and the Treasury is in charge of debt. Theoretically, the FED is independent of the executive branch and can't just print dollars to service the treasury department's debt.
That said, it would totally have been a solution here, because US debt is all in dollars, it's the whole point.
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