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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread |
On May 28 2023 07:08 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2023 06:51 BlackJack wrote:
At some point you’ll just have to realize that average people care a lot more about buying a house, paying less in taxes, buying groceries for their family, being free from regulations and COVID lockdowns, etc than they care about which part of the library Amanda Gorman’s poems are housed in. Living in a world of assuming what people are saying and not bothering to read it, its very unimpressive! … What's funny is I remember you being so into the "freedom" part of Covid, but banning books is all good.
Hahaha… perfect.
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If anyone besides you wants to know what I think about book bans I’d be happy to chime in. Otherwise I will spare the thread, and myself, of anymore of this back and forth.
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On May 28 2023 03:37 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2023 03:05 Sermokala wrote:On May 27 2023 14:21 Liquid`Drone wrote:On May 27 2023 12:41 Sermokala wrote:On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
[quote]
While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats). New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois. https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdfWe can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime. I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority. I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather. Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on. First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me. Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole. https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/If planning to leave SF, why? Too many homeless living on the streets 70% Cost of living too high 68% Rising crime 67% Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57% Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35% Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34% Personal/family reasons 18% Better job opportunities elsewhere 6% The weather 5%Poor job opportunities here 5% Other (specified) 18% Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city. I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather. edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking. The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020. Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds. Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC: https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls? + Show Spoiler +Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that. Its beacuse some people have a history of arguing in good faith and other people don't. its funny in the "thats funny I wonder why no one gives me the benefit of the doubt on things?" kind of funny you should be realizing. You really think anyone gives credibility to the exit polls of people who deciding to leave and are just trying to figure out reasons why? Do you think that they're somehow biased on what they don't want to tell some random pollster the real reason why they're leaving? Gee heres an argument maybe people are moving because of politics? They're the kinds of people who look at what florida and texas is doing and agree with it. We can judge them based on their choice because they're making that choise after considering it really hard beacuse its moving across the country kind of decision. Yes people are moving because of politics? That's what BJ is saying, and what the polls back up, seeing how all the top 5 choices are all political in nature. I don't understand, are you agreeing with him or disagreeing with him, because your tone says you are disagreeing but the words seem to say you agree? Thats not what BJ is saying, according to his response to me. In his response to me he says that he thinks they're not leaving beacuse of politics they're leaving because of weather to him aparently. Or thats just werid sarcasm, in that case I do agree with him that people are leaving because of politics. I just think the reasons why they're moving are really telling if thats the reasons they're willing to admit to in a poll and should be critized for them. The idea that its taxes is bad because you need to make this huge decision to move across the country and they would have to do research on the different standards of living and the new costs that far outweigh the lack of income tax, or they're just too dumb to realize that texas and florida have to get their state revenue difference somewhere. Either through property taxes or through higher costs on things like energy in texas or home insurance in florida. Again if they're answers are genuine half the people answering arn't democrats they just understand the shame of callign yourself a republican in america. What? He posted this: Show nested quote +We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. If you read from that that he thinks they're leaving because of the weather then yeah I don't think that's BJ's fault.
On May 27 2023 13:39 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On May 27 2023 12:41 Sermokala wrote:On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals. While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats). New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois. https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdfWe can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime. I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority. I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather. Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on. First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me. Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole. https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/If planning to leave SF, why? Too many homeless living on the streets 70% Cost of living too high 68% Rising crime 67% Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57% Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35% Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34% Personal/family reasons 18% Better job opportunities elsewhere 6% The weather 5%Poor job opportunities here 5% Other (specified) 18% Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city. I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather. edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking. The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020. Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds. Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC: https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls? + Show Spoiler +Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that. Its beacuse some people have a history of arguing in good faith and other people don't. its funny in the "thats funny I wonder why no one gives me the benefit of the doubt on things?" kind of funny you should be realizing. You really think anyone gives credibility to the exit polls of people who deciding to leave and are just trying to figure out reasons why? Do you think that they're somehow biased on what they don't want to tell some random pollster the real reason why they're leaving? Gee heres an argument maybe people are moving because of politics? They're the kinds of people who look at what florida and texas is doing and agree with it. We can judge them based on their choice because they're making that choise after considering it really hard beacuse its moving across the country kind of decision. “Clearly these people can’t be trusted, they think moving to Florida or Texas is appealing so they are obviously not of sane mind!” This is the problem with discourse these days. Everyone thinks they are entitled to their own truth. Ok sure. People are not fleeing San Francisco because of homelessness and crime and cost of living. The media and the residents are not openly pondering whether San Francisco is in a “Doom Loop” and is essentially circling the drain. It’s all fake news. It’s all about the weather. Those damn SF summers where it’s 68 degrees and sunny, who wants that when you can move to Arizona or Florida or Texas and blast the air/con all day long. I give up.
He posted the above first when he responded to me and not someone else and was what I was referring to in my post. I have never said anything about weather and I don't know why he keeps acting like its a thing people are discussing between eachother. De santis recently came out against climate change being real and said it was people "politicizing weather" so I'm just going to assume thats what that is coming from.
The deal doesn't look too bad from what general info has come out about it. Nothing I'm sure anyone is happy about but leaves enough on the bone I guess until the budget talk comes up.
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Norway28706 Posts
Yes that post you just quoted is very clearly sarcastic, and the quote I quoted is part of a quote chain which is found in this very post you just now quoted. I'd recommend reading the full discussion you decide to take part of. 
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Norway28706 Posts
The smiley is actually intended as a pleasantly, but I understand how that might be a foreign concept.
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I didn’t say the average person was migrating from New York. I said the average person cares more about the economics of their life than about the culture wars issues. At least nitpick me on stuff I actually said.
Thanks for the links but I don’t think you even need a source to make the point that 10 million people are not leaving NYC.
+ Show Spoiler +The point of my post was to address the general incredulity of “who the hell wants to be like Florida, those miserable fucks are just using their last days to persecute LGBT folk before they are swept away by hurricanes and rising seas.” I’m assuming this sentiment is coming entirely from recent legislation that has put Florida in the news and not because this mostly international forum is keenly aware of cost of living, taxes, home prices, etc in Florida vs other states. The point is for “average” folks the culture wars stuff is not a high priority compared to other things.
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On May 28 2023 14:44 Liquid`Drone wrote:Yes that post you just quoted is very clearly sarcastic, and the quote I quoted is part of a quote chain which is found in this very post you just now quoted. I'd recommend reading the full discussion you decide to take part of.
You can't unironically say this and defend Blackjack in the exact same post, this kind of lack of self awareness
would get featured on /r/selfawarewolves if anybody there knew what TL was.
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On May 29 2023 08:22 Mikau wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2023 14:44 Liquid`Drone wrote:Yes that post you just quoted is very clearly sarcastic, and the quote I quoted is part of a quote chain which is found in this very post you just now quoted. I'd recommend reading the full discussion you decide to take part of. You can't unironically say this and defend Blackjack in the exact same post, this kind of lack of self awareness would get featured on /r/selfawarewolves if anybody there knew what TL was.
Someone wildly interpreted my post and he simply corrected them. Funny how even something so simple triggers you into launching some vague whine about me.
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Norway28706 Posts
It's not complicated. Sermo claimed that BJ was stating the opposite of what he had just stated. I said this was wrong. I have no investment in the broader discussion and I wasn't 'defending' BJ. I added the smiley because I wanted Sermo to understand that my post bore no ill will or resentment. I also have no interest in another one of these discussions because it's stupid.
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On May 29 2023 08:46 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2023 06:12 BlackJack wrote:I didn’t say the average person was migrating from New York. I said the average person cares more about the economics of their life than about the culture wars issues. At least nitpick me on stuff I actually said. Thanks for the links but I don’t think you even need a source to make the point that 10 million people are not leaving NYC. + Show Spoiler +The point of my post was to address the general incredulity of “who the hell wants to be like Florida, those miserable fucks are just using their last days to persecute LGBT folk before they are swept away by hurricanes and rising seas.” I’m assuming this sentiment is coming entirely from recent legislation that has put Florida in the news and not because this mostly international forum is keenly aware of cost of living, taxes, home prices, etc in Florida vs other states. The point is for “average” folks the culture wars stuff is not a high priority compared to other things. You're arguing against a point no one has. Peoples point is they want good things, without the shitty culture war BS. If you hate the culture war in what way does it make sense to vote for the king of culture war??!?? If you think they are related with a positive correlation, then why dislike culture wars?
I didn't say anything about whether I love or hate the culture war. Just like I didn't say anything about banning books being okay. I also didn't say anything about whether it would be sensical to vote for the "king of culture war" (DeSantis I assume).
I said to the average person the culture wars ranks low on priorities for people when they decide to pack up all their shit and move across the country. Period. Then your immediate response is "if you hate the culture war..." What are you talking about? If you are going to make stupid inferences from all of my posts you should at least not make ones that contradict each other. Being okay with banning books and hating the culture wars are quite the opposites and yet you've attributed both of them to me on just this one page.
I'm curious if you do this with everyone or are you just trying to bait me into engaging with you by feeling a need to correct the record on whatever words you want to put in my mouth?
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On May 29 2023 09:03 Liquid`Drone wrote:
It's not complicated. Sermo claimed that BJ was stating the opposite of what he had just stated. I said this was wrong. I have no investment in the broader discussion and I wasn't 'defending' BJ. I added the smiley because I wanted Sermo to understand that my post bore no ill will or resentment. I also have no interest in another one of these discussions because it's stupid.
For most of us the only winning move is not to play, you on the other hand, have some other options.
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EPT
