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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3940

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.


If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread
FeatherPlanes
Profile Joined June 2022
45 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-05-27 01:11:36
May 27 2023 00:51 GMT
#78781
On May 26 2023 22:59 JimmiC wrote:
I've heard the lack of moderation has cut advertising revenue hugely. I'm not sure if that was knee jerk and has returned or if the blue check mark has returned.

But I can't imagine ticking off the MAGA crowd who loves Trump and is currently mad at Desantis. Musk has probably been good for Truth social, which I would not have guessed.


Advertising hasn't returned because its easy to cut Twitter from your advertising spend, since it has long been the social media platform with the worst ad engagement. Musk having the emotional maturity of a 14 year old just gave them the reason to not maintain the status quo.

Even ignoring Musk, the lack of people working at Twitter makes it impossible to roll out ad campaigns. Every media platform has teams and teams of people within the company that you have direct contact to because you need that sort of contact to quickly manage your image, make changes, and generally coordinate your ad roll outs. There's no staff to actually talk to so how can you manage your ad campaign roll outs if one of your videos all of a sudden ages like milk? There was a period of time where there was literally no Japanese speaking marketing staff because Musk laid all of them off.

The pivot was meant to be towards artifically boosting users who pay for Twitter Blue and therefore forcefully encourage Twitter's decently sized userbase to pay for subscriptions. Musk's problem is that Twitter Blue provides no real value beyond that so the only people who would pay for it ideologically support Musk and honest to god believe him to be a real life Tony Stark.

This strategy actually decentivized subscribing to Twitter Blue because the blue tick mark now told you who is a garbage Twitter user with nothing of value to add to any conversation. So Musk had to go back and muddy the waters by forcefully giving every Twitter user with 1 million followers Twitter Blue (but without the Twitter Blue benefits) but that's still a bad solution because you can easily tell who got the blue tick by being a person of notability or who is giving Musk cash to save the world from George Soros by their amount of followers.
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
May 27 2023 02:19 GMT
#78782
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals.


While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14047 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-05-27 03:48:33
May 27 2023 03:41 GMT
#78783
On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals.


While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.

Its beacuse some people have a history of arguing in good faith and other people don't. its funny in the "thats funny I wonder why no one gives me the benefit of the doubt on things?" kind of funny you should be realizing.

You really think anyone gives credibility to the exit polls of people who deciding to leave and are just trying to figure out reasons why? Do you think that they're somehow biased on what they don't want to tell some random pollster the real reason why they're leaving? Gee heres an argument maybe people are moving because of politics? They're the kinds of people who look at what florida and texas is doing and agree with it. We can judge them based on their choice because they're making that choise after considering it really hard beacuse its moving across the country kind of decision.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15723 Posts
May 27 2023 04:06 GMT
#78784
On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals.


While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.


The reason people move from NY to Florida are taxes and guns and I don't see why people would argue otherwise. Part of it is that when someone decides to leave a state, it is often a tough choice. Leaving friends and family behind is a non-trivial decision, but the only person I have known to move from NY to Florida said he did so because he felt he had no choice because he was 100% sure his guns would be taken from him.

When you look at "people who want to leave", it is going to paint a picture of issues being bigger than they are, rather than simply showing which issues are the ones that people who are leaving care about the most.

Similarly, my cousin spent like $800 on guns when Obama won re-election because the guy at the gun shop told him Obama was going to ban the sale of guns nationally.

I am not saying there are no legitimate reasons to leave NY. There are reasons I thought leaving Oregon would be a good idea, but I'm back for a reason.

And while I may have a tendency to exaggerate or parody groups I disagree with, gun folks appear to actually be as single-issue and paranoid as I joke about. Every gun owner I know (probably about 10?) is completely and totally unwilling to consider any situation where any guns they have are taken away or might be prevented from purchasing or whatever. It is a part of their identity.
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-05-27 04:43:50
May 27 2023 04:39 GMT
#78785
On May 27 2023 12:41 Sermokala wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals.


While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.

Its beacuse some people have a history of arguing in good faith and other people don't. its funny in the "thats funny I wonder why no one gives me the benefit of the doubt on things?" kind of funny you should be realizing.

You really think anyone gives credibility to the exit polls of people who deciding to leave and are just trying to figure out reasons why? Do you think that they're somehow biased on what they don't want to tell some random pollster the real reason why they're leaving? Gee heres an argument maybe people are moving because of politics? They're the kinds of people who look at what florida and texas is doing and agree with it. We can judge them based on their choice because they're making that choise after considering it really hard beacuse its moving across the country kind of decision.


“Clearly these people can’t be trusted, they think moving to Florida or Texas is appealing so they are obviously not of sane mind!”

This is the problem with discourse these days. Everyone thinks they are entitled to their own truth.

Ok sure. People are not fleeing San Francisco because of homelessness and crime and cost of living. The media and the residents are not openly pondering whether San Francisco is in a “Doom Loop” and is essentially circling the drain. It’s all fake news. It’s all about the weather. Those damn SF summers where it’s 68 degrees and sunny, who wants that when you can move to Arizona or Florida or Texas and blast the air/con all day long. I give up.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-05-27 05:00:18
May 27 2023 04:51 GMT
#78786
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 27 2023 04:55 GMT
#78787
--- Nuked ---
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28706 Posts
May 27 2023 05:21 GMT
#78788
On May 27 2023 12:41 Sermokala wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals.


While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.

Its beacuse some people have a history of arguing in good faith and other people don't. its funny in the "thats funny I wonder why no one gives me the benefit of the doubt on things?" kind of funny you should be realizing.

You really think anyone gives credibility to the exit polls of people who deciding to leave and are just trying to figure out reasons why? Do you think that they're somehow biased on what they don't want to tell some random pollster the real reason why they're leaving? Gee heres an argument maybe people are moving because of politics? They're the kinds of people who look at what florida and texas is doing and agree with it. We can judge them based on their choice because they're making that choise after considering it really hard beacuse its moving across the country kind of decision.


Yes people are moving because of politics? That's what BJ is saying, and what the polls back up, seeing how all the top 5 choices are all political in nature. I don't understand, are you agreeing with him or disagreeing with him, because your tone says you are disagreeing but the words seem to say you agree?
Moderator
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
May 27 2023 05:22 GMT
#78789
On May 27 2023 13:55 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 13:06 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals.


While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.


The reason people move from NY to Florida are taxes and guns and I don't see why people would argue otherwise. Part of it is that when someone decides to leave a state, it is often a tough choice. Leaving friends and family behind is a non-trivial decision, but the only person I have known to move from NY to Florida said he did so because he felt he had no choice because he was 100% sure his guns would be taken from him.

When you look at "people who want to leave", it is going to paint a picture of issues being bigger than they are, rather than simply showing which issues are the ones that people who are leaving care about the most.

Similarly, my cousin spent like $800 on guns when Obama won re-election because the guy at the gun shop told him Obama was going to ban the sale of guns nationally.

I am not saying there are no legitimate reasons to leave NY. There are reasons I thought leaving Oregon would be a good idea, but I'm back for a reason.

And while I may have a tendency to exaggerate or parody groups I disagree with, gun folks appear to actually be as single-issue and paranoid as I joke about. Every gun owner I know (probably about 10?) is completely and totally unwilling to consider any situation where any guns they have are taken away or might be prevented from purchasing or whatever. It is a part of their identity.


You can purchase just as many guns in Montana as Florida. Same with a bunch of other states.

I left NY because I wanted my guns. I picked Fla because of the weather. Both statements can clearly be true. So showing that people are not leaving one city for one reason does not mean they are picking the new place for only that reason. Because the choice was not SF or Florida. It was SF and everywhere else.



You want to know why Texas and Florida as opposed to all the other states they can move to? Mostly because these 2 states have no income tax which is quite nice if you’re used to paying 8-10%.
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-05-27 05:36:34
May 27 2023 05:34 GMT
#78790
On May 27 2023 14:21 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 12:41 Sermokala wrote:
On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals.


While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.

Its beacuse some people have a history of arguing in good faith and other people don't. its funny in the "thats funny I wonder why no one gives me the benefit of the doubt on things?" kind of funny you should be realizing.

You really think anyone gives credibility to the exit polls of people who deciding to leave and are just trying to figure out reasons why? Do you think that they're somehow biased on what they don't want to tell some random pollster the real reason why they're leaving? Gee heres an argument maybe people are moving because of politics? They're the kinds of people who look at what florida and texas is doing and agree with it. We can judge them based on their choice because they're making that choise after considering it really hard beacuse its moving across the country kind of decision.


Yes people are moving because of politics? That's what BJ is saying, and what the polls back up, seeing how all the top 5 choices are all political in nature. I don't understand, are you agreeing with him or disagreeing with him, because your tone says you are disagreeing but the words seem to say you agree?


I think his argument is that it’s just the Republicans that are leaving and therefore it skews the poll due to a selection bias where only Republicans are answering. Then the real reason they are leaving is because Ron DeSantis has promised them if they come to Florida they can lynch homosexuals but they don’t want to give that answer to the pollsters so they just pick whichever answer will “pwn the libs” the most.

Of course we know it’s not just Republicans leaving and you can even see in the poll methodology that about half the people answering are Democrats.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 27 2023 17:18 GMT
#78791
--- Nuked ---
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14047 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-05-27 18:19:56
May 27 2023 18:05 GMT
#78792
On May 27 2023 14:21 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 12:41 Sermokala wrote:
On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals.


While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.

Its beacuse some people have a history of arguing in good faith and other people don't. its funny in the "thats funny I wonder why no one gives me the benefit of the doubt on things?" kind of funny you should be realizing.

You really think anyone gives credibility to the exit polls of people who deciding to leave and are just trying to figure out reasons why? Do you think that they're somehow biased on what they don't want to tell some random pollster the real reason why they're leaving? Gee heres an argument maybe people are moving because of politics? They're the kinds of people who look at what florida and texas is doing and agree with it. We can judge them based on their choice because they're making that choise after considering it really hard beacuse its moving across the country kind of decision.


Yes people are moving because of politics? That's what BJ is saying, and what the polls back up, seeing how all the top 5 choices are all political in nature. I don't understand, are you agreeing with him or disagreeing with him, because your tone says you are disagreeing but the words seem to say you agree?

Thats not what BJ is saying, according to his response to me. In his response to me he says that he thinks they're not leaving beacuse of politics they're leaving because of weather to him aparently. Or thats just werid sarcasm, in that case I do agree with him that people are leaving because of politics. I just think the reasons why they're moving are really telling if thats the reasons they're willing to admit to in a poll and should be critized for them.

The idea that its taxes is bad because you need to make this huge decision to move across the country and they would have to do research on the different standards of living and the new costs that far outweigh the lack of income tax, or they're just too dumb to realize that texas and florida have to get their state revenue difference somewhere. Either through property taxes or through higher costs on things like energy in texas or home insurance in florida. Again if they're answers are genuine half the people answering arn't democrats they just understand the shame of callign yourself a republican in america.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28706 Posts
May 27 2023 18:37 GMT
#78793
On May 28 2023 03:05 Sermokala wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 14:21 Liquid`Drone wrote:
On May 27 2023 12:41 Sermokala wrote:
On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals.


While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.

Its beacuse some people have a history of arguing in good faith and other people don't. its funny in the "thats funny I wonder why no one gives me the benefit of the doubt on things?" kind of funny you should be realizing.

You really think anyone gives credibility to the exit polls of people who deciding to leave and are just trying to figure out reasons why? Do you think that they're somehow biased on what they don't want to tell some random pollster the real reason why they're leaving? Gee heres an argument maybe people are moving because of politics? They're the kinds of people who look at what florida and texas is doing and agree with it. We can judge them based on their choice because they're making that choise after considering it really hard beacuse its moving across the country kind of decision.


Yes people are moving because of politics? That's what BJ is saying, and what the polls back up, seeing how all the top 5 choices are all political in nature. I don't understand, are you agreeing with him or disagreeing with him, because your tone says you are disagreeing but the words seem to say you agree?

Thats not what BJ is saying, according to his response to me. In his response to me he says that he thinks they're not leaving beacuse of politics they're leaving because of weather to him aparently. Or thats just werid sarcasm, in that case I do agree with him that people are leaving because of politics. I just think the reasons why they're moving are really telling if thats the reasons they're willing to admit to in a poll and should be critized for them.

The idea that its taxes is bad because you need to make this huge decision to move across the country and they would have to do research on the different standards of living and the new costs that far outweigh the lack of income tax, or they're just too dumb to realize that texas and florida have to get their state revenue difference somewhere. Either through property taxes or through higher costs on things like energy in texas or home insurance in florida. Again if they're answers are genuine half the people answering arn't democrats they just understand the shame of callign yourself a republican in america.


What? He posted this:
We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather.

If you read from that that he thinks they're leaving because of the weather then yeah I don't think that's BJ's fault.
Moderator
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18114 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-05-27 18:42:44
May 27 2023 18:41 GMT
#78794
On May 28 2023 03:05 Sermokala wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 14:21 Liquid`Drone wrote:
On May 27 2023 12:41 Sermokala wrote:
On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 26 2023 01:39 Sadist wrote:
Republicans moving to florida and out of swing states is a win for the swing states and democrats/liberals.


While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.

Its beacuse some people have a history of arguing in good faith and other people don't. its funny in the "thats funny I wonder why no one gives me the benefit of the doubt on things?" kind of funny you should be realizing.

You really think anyone gives credibility to the exit polls of people who deciding to leave and are just trying to figure out reasons why? Do you think that they're somehow biased on what they don't want to tell some random pollster the real reason why they're leaving? Gee heres an argument maybe people are moving because of politics? They're the kinds of people who look at what florida and texas is doing and agree with it. We can judge them based on their choice because they're making that choise after considering it really hard beacuse its moving across the country kind of decision.


Yes people are moving because of politics? That's what BJ is saying, and what the polls back up, seeing how all the top 5 choices are all political in nature. I don't understand, are you agreeing with him or disagreeing with him, because your tone says you are disagreeing but the words seem to say you agree?

Thats not what BJ is saying, according to his response to me. In his response to me he says that he thinks they're not leaving beacuse of politics they're leaving because of weather to him aparently. Or thats just werid sarcasm, in that case I do agree with him that people are leaving because of politics. I just think the reasons why they're moving are really telling if thats the reasons they're willing to admit to in a poll and should be critized for them.

The idea that its taxes is bad because you need to make this huge decision to move across the country and they would have to do research on the different standards of living and the new costs that far outweigh the lack of income tax, or they're just too dumb to realize that texas and florida have to get their state revenue difference somewhere. Either through property taxes or through higher costs on things like energy in texas or home insurance in florida. Again if they're answers are genuine half the people answering arn't democrats they just understand the shame of callign yourself a republican in america.


I don't think property insurance is higher in Florida because of the lack of taxes Hurricanes probably have more to do with that one. Obviously it's still a cost you'll have to deal with if you move to Florida.

The lack of state taxes is probably more evident in worse public services. But if you were sending your children to private school and using private medical facilities, you'd probably not notice that.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 27 2023 18:49 GMT
#78795
--- Nuked ---
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
May 27 2023 21:40 GMT
#78796
On May 28 2023 02:18 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2023 14:22 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 13:55 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 13:06 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 27 2023 11:19 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 08:00 JimmiC wrote:
On May 27 2023 07:09 BlackJack wrote:
On May 27 2023 00:57 JimmiC wrote:
On May 26 2023 09:41 BlackJack wrote:
On May 26 2023 02:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
[quote]

While that's true, do we happen to know which states have the most people leaving for Florida? Because if they're leaving solid blue states, that wouldn't be very helpful for Democrats (especially since Florida could be purple but arguably is becoming light red now, pulling a potential swing state away from Democrats).


New York and California alone carry the lion’s share. This source I just googled actually shows net migration positive for every single state except for California, New York, and Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2020-2021-Net-Migration-by-State.pdf

We can sit and theorize all we want for the reasons this is happen but there’s also opinion polls of the residents of these people that explain exactly why they are leaving. Spoiler alert, it’s not the weather. I think I think I’ve posted an article about this a couple years ago here or on liquidpoker. I can try to find it if you want. If memory serves something like 50% are considering moving out of San Francisco with the main reasons being the usual suspects: housing, cost of living/taxes, homelessness, crime.

I think the hemorrhaging will end soon. I don’t think voters and politicians are that dumb and there will be an adjustment. I think you are already seeing that after defund the police blew up in their face spectacularly. You can see the Philadelphia mayor primary where the winning candidate promised to hire more police and was the only candidate to support stop-and-frisk. Stop and frisk being off-criticized for disproportionately affecting and profiling black peoples. I think she won something like 33% of the total vote and over 50% of the black vote which is a pretty solid majority.


I'm confused by your second paragraph. Are you saying that because people leaving San Francisco are not saying they are leaving because of the weather, that everyone moving to Florida are not considering the weather? SF not having amazing weather for Cali might be a thing but I'm sure it a lot better than much of the US. Very strange thing to extrapolate over the whole country, it does not even seem to be about people moving specifically from SF to Florida. When I google any article about moving to Florida it has taxes or weather on top with the other behind. I can also find articles that say Its not just the taxes and weather.

Your 3rd paragraph is also not helpful. It would be great if you followed the forums rules on sourcing but since you do not can you at least provide the relevant information if you are trying to use an example to prove a point. The candidates name would be nice, were they strictly running on the points you brought up or are those cherry picked? What were the other candidates running on? Why is 33% of the total vote a solid majority? With the source I could look it up and be like wow BJ has a great point here, or wow he sure cherry picked the numbers he wanted. Without the source I think everyone you are trying to convince is just going to think the later and move on.


First of all, Florida’s climate is shit, in my opinion. Im in Florida right now. Have you ever been somewhere with 80+% humidity and 80+ degrees F around the clock? Maybe some people like being hot and sticky and eaten by mosquitoes but not me.

Anyway, I’m telling you that we have polls of people from San Francisco, which has the highest rate of exodus of any major city and there reasoning has little to do with weather and everything to do with shitty politicians and policies slowly turning it into a shithole.

https://sfstandard.com/politics/san-francisco-standard-voter-poll-june-2022/

If planning to leave SF, why?

Too many homeless living on the streets 70%
Cost of living too high 68%
Rising crime 67%
Local government is not addressing the city's problems 57%
Don't agree with the progressive political culture 35%
Post-pandemic SF is not as livable as it was before 34%
Personal/family reasons 18%
Better job opportunities elsewhere 6%
The weather 5%
Poor job opportunities here 5%
Other (specified) 18%

Also yes I am fairly confident in extrapolating this to NYC as well which also has rates of rising crime, homelessness, and cost of living that is correlated with the increase in migration out of the city.








I'm not sure if you didn't read my post or what? Because this did not answer it at all. I totally agree that people leaving SF are not doing it for weather.

edit: its crazy if you think leaving NYC has nothign to do weather but beyond that NYC is growing its NY state that is shrinking.

The current metro area population of New York City in 2023 is 18,937,000, a 0.37% increase from 2022. The metro area population of New York City in 2022 was 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

Like you really believe people do not pick fla over montana because of weather? Like it is a pretty big deal. There is a whole industry based around Canadian snow birds.



Fine since evidently you won’t even do a google search to find anything to support your theory, I did it for you. In addition to San Francisco, here is a poll for NYC:

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/taxes-are-top-reason-residents-looking-to-leave-new-york/

And the clear winner for why NYers are considering leaving the state is “Taxes” with 36.7% of the vote. 2nd to last and just ahead of “Other” is “Weather” with 7.7% of the vote. Are we done here or are you going to insist I can’t extrapolate for Chicago as well and make me find more polls?

+ Show Spoiler +
Notice how you can post a theory that doesn’t even make sense and without an ounce of evidence and not a single person in the thread besides me even challenges you on it? Compare that with a couple weeks ago when I posted a theory and I was asked for conclusive evidence and the whole thread objected. Funny that.


The reason people move from NY to Florida are taxes and guns and I don't see why people would argue otherwise. Part of it is that when someone decides to leave a state, it is often a tough choice. Leaving friends and family behind is a non-trivial decision, but the only person I have known to move from NY to Florida said he did so because he felt he had no choice because he was 100% sure his guns would be taken from him.

When you look at "people who want to leave", it is going to paint a picture of issues being bigger than they are, rather than simply showing which issues are the ones that people who are leaving care about the most.

Similarly, my cousin spent like $800 on guns when Obama won re-election because the guy at the gun shop told him Obama was going to ban the sale of guns nationally.

I am not saying there are no legitimate reasons to leave NY. There are reasons I thought leaving Oregon would be a good idea, but I'm back for a reason.

And while I may have a tendency to exaggerate or parody groups I disagree with, gun folks appear to actually be as single-issue and paranoid as I joke about. Every gun owner I know (probably about 10?) is completely and totally unwilling to consider any situation where any guns they have are taken away or might be prevented from purchasing or whatever. It is a part of their identity.


You can purchase just as many guns in Montana as Florida. Same with a bunch of other states.

I left NY because I wanted my guns. I picked Fla because of the weather. Both statements can clearly be true. So showing that people are not leaving one city for one reason does not mean they are picking the new place for only that reason. Because the choice was not SF or Florida. It was SF and everywhere else.



You want to know why Texas and Florida as opposed to all the other states they can move to? Mostly because these 2 states have no income tax which is quite nice if you’re used to paying 8-10%.


Which is why I said it was first or second on every list, welcome to a bunch of posts ago. Hard to tell with you if it’s ignorance or willful ignorance. It’s not strange that someone who had lived in Cali and Fla does not get that weather matters to a lot of folks. But it is odd to make horrible logical leaps to protect that belief and insult others. I mean not strange for you, that is your schtick.

If you want to prove people are not moving to Florida for weather, which you are super sure of. You have to find something that says they are moving to Florida for whatever reason. Not why they are leaving some other place. If crime is your thing, you can find lots of places with lower crime, so then you start deciding on other things. It’s not hard, I get I’m not being nice but you are always a dick so deal with it.

What’s your take on why weather does not matter but every list and marketing source that either says why people move there or trying to convince people to move there puts weather, climate and beaches at or near the top? To stop your next “great” argument, no I do not think it’s the only reason, nor did I say it was.

https://thatfloridalife.com/top-reasons-to-move-to-florida/

https://exprealty.com/guides/15-reasons-people-are-moving-to-florida-what-you-need-to-know/

https://embracesomeplace.com/living-in-florida-moving/

https://movingtofloridaguide.com/top-10-reasons-to-move-to-florida.html

https://www.moving.com/tips/why-moving-to-florida-is-a-great-idea/

https://drifttravel.com/5-good-reasons-to-move-to-florida/?amp

https://blog.pssremovals.com/reasons-to-move-to-florida

https://propertyclub.nyc/article/should-i-move-to-florida

https://colonialvanlines.com/blog/moving-to-florida/

https://globalfloridarealty.com/top-reasons-to-move-to-florida/

https://novelmanagement.com/10-reasons-to-move-to-florida/

https://www.thefloridaagents.com/thinking-about-moving-to-florida-think-again-5-reasons/



Also great continued dodging of your other claim with the unsourced cherry picked data.






You don’t seem to be getting this. Yes people move to Florida because they like warm weather. That has always been true. We are talking now about an uptick in migration out of cities like NYC and SF and into Texas and Florida. You can’t attribute a recent uptick in migration to a variable that has been constant for thousands of years(climate). Did suddenly a lot more people like warm weather for whatever reason? It’s also not because of a demographic shift to more retiring boomers. It’s a trend seen across all demographics and you can see that in the age breakdown in the methodology of the poll I linked.

The reason more people are moving to Florida/Texas is because more people are leaving their dysfunctional cities and moving to non-dysfunctional cities. It’s really not complicated. Your question “why not Montana?” makes no sense because there are a lot more migrating to Montana also, in fact even more per capita than Florida.
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
May 27 2023 21:51 GMT
#78797
At some point you’ll just have to realize that average people care a lot more about buying a house, paying less in taxes, buying groceries for their family, being free from regulations and COVID lockdowns, etc than they care about which part of the library Amanda Gorman’s poems are housed in.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43212 Posts
May 27 2023 21:56 GMT
#78798
On May 28 2023 06:51 BlackJack wrote:
At some point you’ll just have to realize that average people care a lot more about buying a house, paying less in taxes, buying groceries for their family, being free from regulations and COVID lockdowns, etc than they care about which part of the library Amanda Gorman’s poems are housed in.

Florida voted for the COVID lockdown guy.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
May 27 2023 22:08 GMT
#78799
On May 28 2023 06:56 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2023 06:51 BlackJack wrote:
At some point you’ll just have to realize that average people care a lot more about buying a house, paying less in taxes, buying groceries for their family, being free from regulations and COVID lockdowns, etc than they care about which part of the library Amanda Gorman’s poems are housed in.

Florida voted for the COVID lockdown guy.


Ok let’s change “free from COVID lockdowns” to “free from prolonged COVID lockdowns.” Thanks for catching that. I try to be precise in my posts so people don’t nitpick.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-05-27 22:12:16
May 27 2023 22:08 GMT
#78800
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