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On January 02 2023 19:29 TDonkfarts wrote:Show nested quote +On January 02 2023 04:06 FlaShFTW wrote:On January 01 2023 10:53 Sadist wrote:
If he loses the primary he will claim its rigged and run 3rd party. He already made those threats in 2016 and hes enough of an egomaniac to actually follow through with it. He would do it just to spite the republicans.
I think the consensus here is that DeSantis is a well polished politician that is effectively Trump 2.0 in terms of actual policies, but people don't see into him as much because of his polished manner, they tend to separate him from Trump even though politically they're almost identical. This would fair poorly for Democrats with moderate voters, who voted for Trump in 2016 when he still had some semblance of being normal. That all went away by 2020 and he ultimately lost the moderate vote that was crucial for him in 2016. DeSantis has the ability to pull back those moderates and we may end up with a repeat of 2016. But it's still almost 2 years from now so lots can change. I really think whether or not Democrats lose 2024 will purely be dependant on Biden. Personally, I think lot of conservative talking heads are seeing too much in DeSantis and seriously overrating his performance in Florida. I don't think he's particuarly polished, he's just smashing face in Florida because: - its a state that has attracted signficant elderly immigration from the mid-west, to the point that it could be argued that other mid-western states may have outperformed expectations in the midterms because of it
- the Latino population (Cubans + South American refugees) over there are uniquely terrified of any mention of socialism and will not touch the Democratic Party because of it
- the Florida Democratic Party is actually completely useless and operate as a self-interested group intent on defending their positions from other Democrats rather than trying to take the fight to the Republicans.
People really don't know much about DeSantis because not everyone cares about Florida state issues. The minute he has to defend his positions on a national stage, it gets much harder to present himself as a sane individual because the US is a big country after all. I honestly think the more Republicans keep conflating LGBT with pedophilia (an insane belief might I add), the more its going to radicalise the generations of people who have lived with positive LGBT people in our media away from the Republican Party. And DeSantis will absolutely keep doing so because the primary focus of the Republican Party right now are purely culture war issues and he is cut from the same cloth. For all the faults of Donald Trump, he mostly dodged the absolute worst of the current Republican culture war insanity during the 2016 elections by having his campaign be primarily focused on economic protectionism.
Another thing about DeSantis's performance last year was that despite his huge win, it was against a former Republican, which I think most likely dampened Dem enthusiasm during the election
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On January 03 2023 00:56 JimmiC wrote:
I think the culture war stuff plays pretty well nationally sadly. I also think a lot of Republicans that were turned off by Trumps, well Trump being Trump, will see DeSantis as a guy who can bring the base that only cares about culture wars but behind closed doors be a "reasonable" Republican. I do not like him, would not vote for him, I do think he is currently by far the best candidate the reps can run.
That being said if Trump is in the primary all bets are off because it will be bloody.
Does the culture war stuff play well nationally? I don't think the current culture war stuff does at all, especially with younger generations.
In the past, Republicans had competent messaging where they could hide a lot of their bullshit within dog whistles. Welfare Queens, War on Drugs/Crime, securing America's borders, etc. A lot of those are at face value reasonable positions that reasonable people would accept without a lot of thought, even if the basis of a lot of the policy impacted minority groups severely and energised the racist side of people. That's why they worked with suburban America.
The problem I see with Republican messaging is that a lot of it is the equivulant of screaming how Monster Energy Drinks are the product of the devil. And they're actually falling for their own bullshit, which is best exemplified by a large chunk not trusting alternative methods of voting. Its increasingly unhinged, frequently saying the quiet part loud, and fueled by nothing but pure anger and projection. It was always going down this road but the coronavirus pandemic removed all speed bumps and speed limits from the decline.
They can't hide this insanity anymore because these are the type of people who are taking over political positions in much of Rural America. The reach has extended so far that its basically what you see at any event involving citizen participation like school board meetings. In fact, the majority of CPAC now is this type of foaming in the mouth weirdness or other forms of cringe like treating Kyle Rittenhouse - random kid who intentionally went to a protest to shoot three people - like a king.
I'm not discounting DeSantis but at the end of the day he's cut from the same cloth as all of these nutters and his success has been in Florida. And the main thing that these nutters will do is attempt to openly waste time and effort to hurt transgender people under the guise of protecting children from predators.
The world is still transphobic sure but Republicans are ridiculously clumsy with messaging that the typical person can see their position being fueled by irrational hatred. Not just that, most loud Republicans see gays and lesbians to be equivalently evil so they can't help themselves and paint them with the same child predator brush.
Obviously this is a pretty dumb idea when 70% of Americans in TYOOL 2022 support same sex marriage. Nevermind an entire generation of people who enjoy consuming gay culture.
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On January 02 2023 10:48 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 08:51 BlackJack wrote:
Biggest win for Republicans would be if Trump gets charged and banned from running. Clears the way for DeSantis who can leverage a future pardon for Trumps endorsement and they get to play the witch hunt card to boot. It must be thrilling to be able to talk only about optics and ignore policies completely when you are choosing your nominee. Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 10:53 Sadist wrote:
If he loses the primary he will claim its rigged and run 3rd party. He already made those threats in 2016 and hes enough of an egomaniac to actually follow through with it. He would do it just to spite the republicans.
I doubt he will run for primaries again. There is no reason why he would not announce that he is running for primaries. He might not run, but if you had a huge following and shaped the republican politics for almost a decade, why not use it to obtain some favours in return just so you don't run again ?
"It must be thrilling to be able to talk only about optics and ignore policies completely when you are choosing your nominee."
Off course it is. There is elections and there is policies,they are very different things.
Elections are not about policies. They are about one thing only:winning.
This specially goes for US elections,in Europe things are a bit more subtle.
Edit:
This does deserve a bit more explanation. It is not as cynical as it might apear to be.
The president does hold a lot of executive power. But his influence on the most important policy decissions is somewhat limited. There is lobby groups,other party elites,advisors and experts on specific subjects,the geo-political and economic interests of the USA in general.
If you look at Trumps presidency,then he didnt make any important decission that wouldnt/couldnt possibly have been made by a different republican president (and when it comes to certain decissions,even a democratic president would have made the same decissions).
He did apoint the judges suggested to him. He rolled out the vaccinations. His trade war with China would have happend even under a democratic president. He didnt leave Nato even though he toyed with the idea.
Only at the end of his presidency things went of the rails. The capitol riots,not wanting to accept the outcome of the elections. And he was stopped. The secret service didnt drive him to the capitol. Pence didnt block rectifying the election result.
In many ways the most important job of a candidate,his only job you could even argue,is winning the elections.
The exact policys then can be decided upon once it has become relevant,once the presidency has been won.
This edit for the US specifically.
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On January 03 2023 07:58 TDonkfarts wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2023 00:56 JimmiC wrote:
I think the culture war stuff plays pretty well nationally sadly. I also think a lot of Republicans that were turned off by Trumps, well Trump being Trump, will see DeSantis as a guy who can bring the base that only cares about culture wars but behind closed doors be a "reasonable" Republican. I do not like him, would not vote for him, I do think he is currently by far the best candidate the reps can run.
That being said if Trump is in the primary all bets are off because it will be bloody. Obviously this is a pretty dumb idea when 70% of Americans in TYOOL 2022 support same sex marriage. Nevermind an entire generation of people who enjoy consuming gay culture.
Wtf is gay culture?
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On January 03 2023 17:23 Velr wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2023 07:58 TDonkfarts wrote:On January 03 2023 00:56 JimmiC wrote:
I think the culture war stuff plays pretty well nationally sadly. I also think a lot of Republicans that were turned off by Trumps, well Trump being Trump, will see DeSantis as a guy who can bring the base that only cares about culture wars but behind closed doors be a "reasonable" Republican. I do not like him, would not vote for him, I do think he is currently by far the best candidate the reps can run.
That being said if Trump is in the primary all bets are off because it will be bloody. Obviously this is a pretty dumb idea when 70% of Americans in TYOOL 2022 support same sex marriage. Nevermind an entire generation of people who enjoy consuming gay culture. Wtf is gay culture?
One such example of people subconciously consuming a product of gay culture is dance music. The origins of most dance music, from disco to house, are rooted in the gay club scene. Which has had a profound impact on US popular music from the 1970s onwards. While you are not actively aware that you are consuming a product with direct roots to the gay community, much of the aesthetics and particularities have been normalised over the decades amongst people who live in cosmopolitan US cities.
Especially so when certain pop stars like Madonna and Lady Gaga always make an effort to show open deference to their musical and aesthetic influences (i.e. club and drag scenes). You're not going to be able to convince a generation of people who enjoyed Madonna's discography to irrationally believe gay people are evil child predators guided by Satin when so much of her discography references the gay community to the point she literally has a hit song and music video called Vogue.
Most normal people who have lived through decades of popular media influenced by gay culture, directly or indirectly, are just going to think you're off your goddamn rocker if you're going to make such an insane reaching claim about an entire minority group. This isn't the 1980s anymore, there's so many gay-associated events in major cities now that its near impossible to believe that they're HIV spreading aliens who hide in the dark corners of Atlanta, New York and the Bay Area.
Its why some Republican Governors like Eric Holcomb and Spencer Cox directly vetoed their state's anti-trans high school athlete bills. They know that while people are still transphobic in general, the optics to spend all this time and money to pass a bill that is designed to punish quite literally one single high school student in Utah makes them look certifiably insane. And they know that any success here will have the same Republicans attempt to clumsily relitigate the validity of same-sex marriage and protections.
This is specifically talking about the US, the situation in Europe is no doubt different.
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While I have no problem with believing that the roots of this came from gay (or at least very gay friendly) enviroments, I highly doubt anyone not interested in the history of the topic sees dance music (and probably plenty of other stuff) in any form as "gay culture" nowadays. You even end up basically stating that people that like pop/dance-music can't be homophobes, which i find a pretty ridiculous statement.
Maybe I'm way off but to me it feels like you underestimate how many hidden homophobes there are. Sure we are further than ever before (well, most of us) when it comes to gay rights... But at the same time plenty of republicans are making "grooming" and "drag story hour" into political topics of national significance (or at least try it). It's also not exactly fringe republicans/right wingers that do this.
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On January 03 2023 18:01 TDonkfarts wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2023 17:23 Velr wrote:On January 03 2023 07:58 TDonkfarts wrote:On January 03 2023 00:56 JimmiC wrote:
I think the culture war stuff plays pretty well nationally sadly. I also think a lot of Republicans that were turned off by Trumps, well Trump being Trump, will see DeSantis as a guy who can bring the base that only cares about culture wars but behind closed doors be a "reasonable" Republican. I do not like him, would not vote for him, I do think he is currently by far the best candidate the reps can run.
That being said if Trump is in the primary all bets are off because it will be bloody. Obviously this is a pretty dumb idea when 70% of Americans in TYOOL 2022 support same sex marriage. Nevermind an entire generation of people who enjoy consuming gay culture. Wtf is gay culture? One such example of people subconciously consuming a product of gay culture is dance music. The origins of most dance music, from disco to house, are rooted in the gay club scene. Which has had a profound impact on US popular music from the 1970s onwards. While you are not actively aware that you are consuming a product with direct roots to the gay community, much of the aesthetics and particularities have been normalised over the decades amongst people who live in cosmopolitan US cities.
I very recently watched some very well done documentaries on Disco and House, and no, the genres did not root in "Gay Culture", however, the first clubs, same sex kissing, dancing etc. was certainly acceptable. The beauty of it was really the inclusiveness of it all, across sexual preferences and race.
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Rep. Kevin McCarthy just failed in his bid to be House Speaker, which makes him the first House Majority Leader to fail his attempt in over 100 years. The GOP House Majority already off to a great start.
A moderate GOP representative ending up Speaker who is palatable for the Democrats might end up happening. Or McCarthy somehow wins in the second round of voting, albeit humiliated and likely having to make serious concessions to his party.
McCarthy fails his second attempt at Speaker lol.
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On January 03 2023 18:01 TDonkfarts wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2023 17:23 Velr wrote:On January 03 2023 07:58 TDonkfarts wrote:On January 03 2023 00:56 JimmiC wrote:
I think the culture war stuff plays pretty well nationally sadly. I also think a lot of Republicans that were turned off by Trumps, well Trump being Trump, will see DeSantis as a guy who can bring the base that only cares about culture wars but behind closed doors be a "reasonable" Republican. I do not like him, would not vote for him, I do think he is currently by far the best candidate the reps can run.
That being said if Trump is in the primary all bets are off because it will be bloody. Obviously this is a pretty dumb idea when 70% of Americans in TYOOL 2022 support same sex marriage. Nevermind an entire generation of people who enjoy consuming gay culture. Wtf is gay culture? One such example of people subconciously consuming a product of gay culture is dance music. The origins of most dance music, from disco to house, are rooted in the gay club scene. Which has had a profound impact on US popular music from the 1970s onwards. While you are not actively aware that you are consuming a product with direct roots to the gay community, much of the aesthetics and particularities have been normalised over the decades amongst people who live in cosmopolitan US cities. Especially so when certain pop stars like Madonna and Lady Gaga always make an effort to show open deference to their musical and aesthetic influences (i.e. club and drag scenes). You're not going to be able to convince a generation of people who enjoyed Madonna's discography to irrationally believe gay people are evil child predators guided by Satin when so much of her discography references the gay community to the point she literally has a hit song and music video called Vogue. Most normal people who have lived through decades of popular media influenced by gay culture, directly or indirectly, are just going to think you're off your goddamn rocker if you're going to make such an insane reaching claim about an entire minority group. This isn't the 1980s anymore, there's so many gay-associated events in major cities now that its near impossible to believe that they're HIV spreading aliens who hide in the dark corners of Atlanta, New York and the Bay Area. Its why some Republican Governors like Eric Holcomb and Spencer Cox directly vetoed their state's anti-trans high school athlete bills. They know that while people are still transphobic in general, the optics to spend all this time and money to pass a bill that is designed to punish quite literally one single high school student in Utah makes them look certifiably insane. And they know that any success here will have the same Republicans attempt to clumsily relitigate the validity of same-sex marriage and protections. This is specifically talking about the US, the situation in Europe is no doubt different.
Holy strawman. I think most people are reasonable enough to see that there is a level of unfairness in allowing biological males to dominate in women's sports and that doesn't mean they believe LGBT people are "HIV spreading aliens." In fact it took me all of 5 seconds to find plenty of polls that show Americans oppose this idea on a 2-1 or even 3-1 margin. I suspect you were able to find the same polls which is probably why you didn't reference them and instead decided to rant about Monster Energy Drink and Kyle Rittenhouse and Madonna/Lady Gaga and Dance Music as your evidence for how these issues "play" nationally.
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On January 04 2023 03:07 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Rep. Kevin McCarthy just failed in his bid to be House Speaker, which makes him the first House Majority Leader to fail his attempt in over 100 years. The GOP House Majority already off to a great start.
A moderate GOP representative ending up Speaker who is palatable for the Democrats might end up happening. Or McCarthy somehow wins in the second round of voting, albeit humiliated and likely having to make serious concessions to his party.
McCarthy fails his second attempt at Speaker lol.
I'm just getting hooked into this now but hes down 20 republican votes. Jim Jordan aparently the person the hardliners are parking their votes on atm. Dems united but can sit and watch the chaos. Macarthy is down 10 votes to the guy the dems are united behind.
I didn't think it would get to this but this is incredibly chaotic. Just bizzare live views of politicians huddling around in the chamber.
I think hes lost the third vote now. Confirm that he has lost the vote same vote as the last one and Mcarthy has lost a vote from the first vote.
They've adjourned until noon tomarrow. Cowardly by the dems to not extend this chaos for a few more hours until people come home from work.
we have to go back to the 1850's for something this unprecedented in american politics. We have an empty spot in the line of succession third in line is now the president pro tempore Patty Murray of washington, the first female to hold the role.
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Damn I wanted more chaos from the GOP
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United States10215 Posts
Well today has been the biggest popcorn maker ever. This is too funny for how shit the Republican unity is right now, which is ironic considering for the last 2 decades, Republican unity was the reason they've had so much success.
Here are my perceived strategy lines for Dems:
Dems can either choose to let the shitshow continue forever and park their votes on Jeffries, but that risks Republicans finally throwing their hands up and getting a majority for McCarthy. The problem with this strategy is that game theory is gonna push the protest Republicans to eventually pick a Republican Speaker without Dems negotiating a deal for someone.
Their alternative is if they can find a deal to make overnight, to have some of the protesting Republicans (just need 6) to come to their side and they back a moderate R to be Speaker. This way, at least they have a few fingers on the steering wheel and can control at least some amount of legislation. At least find someone who's going to help fix the debt ceiling.
Dems are still in some bind: how long do they think they can push R's to find a Speaker. Days? Weeks? At some point, the dam will break and they won't get a pick they're happy with. But maybe they're content with that to put on a show for the voters to see how dysfunctional a Republican House is going to be.
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On January 04 2023 07:41 FlaShFTW wrote:
Well today has been the biggest popcorn maker ever. This is too funny for how shit the Republican unity is right now, which is ironic considering for the last 2 decades, Republican unity was the reason they've had so much success.
Here are my perceived strategy lines for Dems:
Dems can either choose to let the shitshow continue forever and park their votes on Jeffries, but that risks Republicans finally throwing their hands up and getting a majority for McCarthy. The problem with this strategy is that game theory is gonna push the protest Republicans to eventually pick a Republican Speaker without Dems negotiating a deal for someone.
Their alternative is if they can find a deal to make overnight, to have some of the protesting Republicans (just need 6) to come to their side and they back a moderate R to be Speaker. This way, at least they have a few fingers on the steering wheel and can control at least some amount of legislation. At least find someone who's going to help fix the debt ceiling.
Dems are still in some bind: how long do they think they can push R's to find a Speaker. Days? Weeks? At some point, the dam will break and they won't get a pick they're happy with. But maybe they're content with that to put on a show for the voters to see how dysfunctional a Republican House is going to be.
I still find this trope of Republican unity odd, sure generally speaking Republican voters will vote for Republicans on election day, but in what world have elected Republicans been particularly unified? In opposing Obamacare? The easiest choice of a Republican politician in the last generation? 2010 brought Republican back into the majority on the backs of defeating milquetoast GOP incumbents. The Freedom Caucus was birthed from that election. At least in Congress, it's Democrats who are far more unified in their votes. Sure, part of that was because Pelosi is ruthless and twists as many arms and makes as many threats as needed to get her way, but it's not all her. In the Senate you can whine about Manchin and Sinema, but the GOP has the likes of Murkowski, Collins, and had McCain.
To me this seems linked to the classic trope where the other side is always more competent and more conniving, and thus requires absolutist measures to defeat. Think of all the legislation the GOP failed to pass in 2017-2018 and tell me they are so united.
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Yeah this isn't the first time in recent memory that the GOP had a lot of trouble finding a House leader. And since the Tea Party entered the GOP hasn't been unified at all. It doesn't show as much because they simply sit back and do nothing rather then try and fail most of the time but the very fact they couldn't agree on anything, other then a tax cut for their donors, to do with control of all 3 branches under the first half of Trump is very clear evidence of that.
The only thing unifying Republicans for the last 10 orso years has been voting against whatever the Democrats want.
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On January 04 2023 09:33 Gorsameth wrote:
Yeah this isn't the first time in recent memory that the GOP had a lot of trouble finding a House leader. And since the Tea Party entered the GOP hasn't been unified at all. It doesn't show as much because they simply sit back and do nothing rather then try and fail most of the time but the very fact they couldn't agree on anything, other then a tax cut for their donors, to do with control of all 3 branches under the first half of Trump is very clear evidence of that.
The only thing unifying Republicans for the last 10 orso years has been voting against whatever the Democrats want.
They've had trouble finding a leader but no on has had trouble voting a speaker in a hundred years. If it goes past tomorrow we will be closer to 200 years than not for how long the spot has been vacant. They need a speaker to become congressmen again, let that sink in the United States has no congressmen tonight and will not until this chaos is ended. No other business can happen until this is resolved.
I don't think that mod gop will go over for this. They're afraid of being primaried and if they did this they wouldn't get the support of the party in their elections. It would take them fully defecting for a dem to become speaker.
What I hope from them is as of noon tomorrow not allow an adjournment until it is settled. Let the gop historic chaos reign and just sit in their seats in a show of unity reading or using social media to talk about policy and current events. Heck get a knitting circle going.
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Except Reagan was just about the only person who followed that rule, and even then not always. Since at least 2010, and certainly the 2012 in presidential primary fight, this rule hasn't been honored. And of course Trump abandoned it entirely.
Additionally, every party out of power makes it their primary goal to stop the other party. This is especially true in the House, where being in the minority most of the times means you get nothing at all. The GOP's biggest achievements of the last two decades when they've had control are a few tax bills. Nothing else they run on can they get a consensus.
The real reason so many people think this is because it's in the political interest of Democrats to say it, and they have the media megaphone.
As for what's happening now, despite their claims otherwise I can't see any Republican allowing a Democrat speaker, THAT would be an instant primary loss. Even if McCarthy were to dangle some goodies to dems, it would be risky. It might weaken his position with his caucus even further, but it could snap some GOP objectors back into line. Anyways, if this gets resolved in not too long it will be nothing but a footnote to the start of what was going to be a turbulent term regardless.
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On January 04 2023 08:39 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2023 07:41 FlaShFTW wrote:
Well today has been the biggest popcorn maker ever. This is too funny for how shit the Republican unity is right now, which is ironic considering for the last 2 decades, Republican unity was the reason they've had so much success.
Here are my perceived strategy lines for Dems:
Dems can either choose to let the shitshow continue forever and park their votes on Jeffries, but that risks Republicans finally throwing their hands up and getting a majority for McCarthy. The problem with this strategy is that game theory is gonna push the protest Republicans to eventually pick a Republican Speaker without Dems negotiating a deal for someone.
Their alternative is if they can find a deal to make overnight, to have some of the protesting Republicans (just need 6) to come to their side and they back a moderate R to be Speaker. This way, at least they have a few fingers on the steering wheel and can control at least some amount of legislation. At least find someone who's going to help fix the debt ceiling.
Dems are still in some bind: how long do they think they can push R's to find a Speaker. Days? Weeks? At some point, the dam will break and they won't get a pick they're happy with. But maybe they're content with that to put on a show for the voters to see how dysfunctional a Republican House is going to be. I still find this trope of Republican unity odd, sure generally speaking Republican voters will vote for Republicans on election day, but in what world have elected Republicans been particularly unified? In opposing Obamacare? The easiest choice of a Republican politician in the last generation? 2010 brought Republican back into the majority on the backs of defeating milquetoast GOP incumbents. The Freedom Caucus was birthed from that election. At least in Congress, it's Democrats who are far more unified in their votes. Sure, part of that was because Pelosi is ruthless and twists as many arms and makes as many threats as needed to get her way, but it's not all her. In the Senate you can whine about Manchin and Sinema, but the GOP has the likes of Murkowski, Collins, and had McCain. To me this seems linked to the classic trope where the other side is always more competent and more conniving, and thus requires absolutist measures to defeat. Think of all the legislation the GOP failed to pass in 2017-2018 and tell me they are so united.
They were unified against the repeal part of Obamacare, but they never bothered to do any of the replace part of the "Repeal and Replace" strategy. Unification of either party is vastly overstated for sure, but the reason people say this is good for Republicans is that they're the party of small government allegedly at least so having the government be ineffective is their plan. If you said that is a misreading by democrats I'd be inclined to agree with you, but you can understand the sentiment at least I hope.
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On January 04 2023 05:40 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2023 18:01 TDonkfarts wrote:On January 03 2023 17:23 Velr wrote:On January 03 2023 07:58 TDonkfarts wrote:On January 03 2023 00:56 JimmiC wrote:
I think the culture war stuff plays pretty well nationally sadly. I also think a lot of Republicans that were turned off by Trumps, well Trump being Trump, will see DeSantis as a guy who can bring the base that only cares about culture wars but behind closed doors be a "reasonable" Republican. I do not like him, would not vote for him, I do think he is currently by far the best candidate the reps can run.
That being said if Trump is in the primary all bets are off because it will be bloody. Obviously this is a pretty dumb idea when 70% of Americans in TYOOL 2022 support same sex marriage. Nevermind an entire generation of people who enjoy consuming gay culture. Wtf is gay culture? One such example of people subconciously consuming a product of gay culture is dance music. The origins of most dance music, from disco to house, are rooted in the gay club scene. Which has had a profound impact on US popular music from the 1970s onwards. While you are not actively aware that you are consuming a product with direct roots to the gay community, much of the aesthetics and particularities have been normalised over the decades amongst people who live in cosmopolitan US cities. Especially so when certain pop stars like Madonna and Lady Gaga always make an effort to show open deference to their musical and aesthetic influences (i.e. club and drag scenes). You're not going to be able to convince a generation of people who enjoyed Madonna's discography to irrationally believe gay people are evil child predators guided by Satin when so much of her discography references the gay community to the point she literally has a hit song and music video called Vogue. Most normal people who have lived through decades of popular media influenced by gay culture, directly or indirectly, are just going to think you're off your goddamn rocker if you're going to make such an insane reaching claim about an entire minority group. This isn't the 1980s anymore, there's so many gay-associated events in major cities now that its near impossible to believe that they're HIV spreading aliens who hide in the dark corners of Atlanta, New York and the Bay Area. Its why some Republican Governors like Eric Holcomb and Spencer Cox directly vetoed their state's anti-trans high school athlete bills. They know that while people are still transphobic in general, the optics to spend all this time and money to pass a bill that is designed to punish quite literally one single high school student in Utah makes them look certifiably insane. And they know that any success here will have the same Republicans attempt to clumsily relitigate the validity of same-sex marriage and protections. This is specifically talking about the US, the situation in Europe is no doubt different. Holy strawman. I think most people are reasonable enough to see that there is a level of unfairness in allowing biological males to dominate in women's sports and that doesn't mean they believe LGBT people are "HIV spreading aliens." In fact it took me all of 5 seconds to find plenty of polls that show Americans oppose this idea on a 2-1 or even 3-1 margin. I suspect you were able to find the same polls which is probably why you didn't reference them and instead decided to rant about Monster Energy Drink and Kyle Rittenhouse and Madonna/Lady Gaga and Dance Music as your evidence for how these issues "play" nationally.
Yes, people are transphobic. That's why you actually try to control your messaging and don't show your insanity while doing so.
You don't try and pass bills targetting a single student in Utah, who wasn't even that good at the sport, because it shows you're not actually trying to protect fairness in women's sports for whatever. The Republicans have shown complete contempt for the LGBT community, are using the same messaging thrown at gay and lesbian issues in the 1980s and 1990s when talking about transgender issues, and cannot stop themselves from relitigating gay and lesbian issues.
Acceptance of gay and lesbians in just about every major American city is not winding back. And making arguments like the Republicans have been doing are showing how they actually feel about these issues. Polling doesn't mean a whole lot when the polling doesn't actually ask the question that is actually being debated in states and on the national stage.
If the actual bills themselves were not certifiably insane, the Republican Governors of two deep red states wouldn't have vetoed their anti-trans bills beause these sort of anti-trans bills theoretically poll well as you stated. But even they see the bills as intentionally punitive and know exactly what proponents of these bills are going to do next. They're exactly like the Monster Energy lady because they're seeing things in the LGBT community that just don't exist for a generation of people who have been exposed to them. It isn't just abortion rights turning zoomers way against the Republican Party.
Yes, you can still be homophobic in this situation but there's levels to homophobia just like how they are levels to people's transphobia. People can believe that you should provide a level playing field for women. But the same people can also believe that you shouldn't be passing bills that try to harass a single person, you shouldn't spend a load of time screaming about how transgender people are all child and sexual predators that cannot be trusted, and you shouldn't lump gay and lesbians together with transgender folk. Like I said, they're consistently saying the quiet part loud now.
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EPT
